Re: 2015 Atlanta Braves
I don't think you have to hit 200 hr either. But we need to add about 60 hr to get to the halfway point. A guy like Davis helps that. A lot. I also think pitching is most important. That's a big reason why I'm not a proponent of trades for established hitters at this point. We have a lot of good young pitching, and but not enough to dip into. But your pitching and offense are largely independent of one another. And offensively, it's not the 70's where you can get away with a lot of slap hitters and one actual hitter. Even the guys we got rid of aren't great, were just having good stretches. Kelly Johnson was actually an even WAR guy for us. Uribe was just in a hot streak, and we smartly sold high, as he plummeted back to earth.
Olivera's age doesn't concern me for a few reasons. One, Cuban seasons aren't as long, so when a player gets to the point where an American who's been in pro ball since his late teens or early twenties and is starting to lose some ability, Cuban guys have proven to stay stronger later. Two, a big part of the reason to stay away from established players when you're rebuilding is cost. They're established, and thus cost more, hurting against your salary restrictions. In Olivera's case, it lowered his cost.
He'll only be 32 in 2017, and 35 when his deal expires. Worst case scenario, he's a .250/.310/.400 hitter with 15 hr at 3b. If that's the case, and Wood is a sub 4.00 era pitcher and Peraza can get on base at a .340 clip (which may be a stretch), then it's not a great deal, but it's still not a disaster. But if he can be a .280/.340/.450 guy with 20 hr in 2017 and 2018, at roughly $6 million, it's a fantastic deal unless both Peraza and Wood exceed expectations.
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I don't think you have to hit 200 hr either. But we need to add about 60 hr to get to the halfway point. A guy like Davis helps that. A lot. I also think pitching is most important. That's a big reason why I'm not a proponent of trades for established hitters at this point. We have a lot of good young pitching, and but not enough to dip into. But your pitching and offense are largely independent of one another. And offensively, it's not the 70's where you can get away with a lot of slap hitters and one actual hitter. Even the guys we got rid of aren't great, were just having good stretches. Kelly Johnson was actually an even WAR guy for us. Uribe was just in a hot streak, and we smartly sold high, as he plummeted back to earth.
Olivera's age doesn't concern me for a few reasons. One, Cuban seasons aren't as long, so when a player gets to the point where an American who's been in pro ball since his late teens or early twenties and is starting to lose some ability, Cuban guys have proven to stay stronger later. Two, a big part of the reason to stay away from established players when you're rebuilding is cost. They're established, and thus cost more, hurting against your salary restrictions. In Olivera's case, it lowered his cost.
He'll only be 32 in 2017, and 35 when his deal expires. Worst case scenario, he's a .250/.310/.400 hitter with 15 hr at 3b. If that's the case, and Wood is a sub 4.00 era pitcher and Peraza can get on base at a .340 clip (which may be a stretch), then it's not a great deal, but it's still not a disaster. But if he can be a .280/.340/.450 guy with 20 hr in 2017 and 2018, at roughly $6 million, it's a fantastic deal unless both Peraza and Wood exceed expectations.
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