Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

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  • DukeC
    Banned
    • Jul 2011
    • 5751

    #31
    Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

    Originally posted by youALREADYknow
    82 Pass rating is still elite compared to most of the league in this game though. I've never seen Conley above 9.5 APG in all of my sims so far while guys like Rondo can get up around 11 APG. I can try to lower his Pass rating and run a test to see if he still outperforms by such a wide margin.

    I'm leaning towards the ratings of other players on the team being the most important driver for reaching the assist potential for the PG or primary ball-handler. Another great example is LeBron. He clearly has all of the tools and supporting cast to reach very high assist totals but since he's the highest rated player on the team his assist totals suffer. Paul for NO is the highest rated player on the team. Williams for NJ is the highest rated player on the team. Nash for PHX is the highest rated player on the team.

    Rondo, Conley, Kidd, etc are not the top rated players on their teams in most rosters and that's why I think they are getting the assists.

    Another great test would be to lower these player's defensive attributes in order to lower the OVR to make them the 3rd or 4th best player on the team and see whether their assist totals improve.

    If you're willing to do some of these tests too then I'm sure we can find this out in just a few hours. I can also test Touches on PG's to see if the sim stats are different.
    So..in essence...lower the OVr of the PG's so thier not the best player anymore and see how many assists they put up then? I can help with this test too. I'll also run another test and increase the shot tendency of their teammates as well. I'll leave the touches tendency alone.

    I'll follow Deron, Nash, and CP3 and post thier number testing the OVR, then Shot tendency, then both.

    I do think that Offensive Tempo in the Coaching Profiles also plays a role. Just pure speculation at this point though.

    Comment

    • elknavo
      Banned
      • Dec 2011
      • 135

      #32
      Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

      Originally posted by youALREADYknow
      My entire mindset and philosophy is based on the assumption that every single aspect of the roster has been edited to reflect the real world. That includes tendencies such as Draw Foul, Overall Shot Tendency, and individual Shot Location tendencies. Everything works together and defaults are simply not acceptable IMO.
      I agree entirely. And I think the simmed stats are actually the best test of how well a roster reflects the real NBA. The gameplay is also affected heavily by sliders and can always be fine-tuned through them. The simmed stats depend entirely on the roster and IMO are the purest test of its quality.

      I took a good look and that spreadsheet and from what I saw you seem to be taking the right approach. This requires insane attention to detail and from what I've seen your ratings and tendencies on that spreadsheet are excellent. I hope you'll publish any other ratings changes that'll be going into your roster as I'm a PC user. The vast majority of roster work appears to be going into the Xbox version, but it's so vastly inferior IMO other than the patch issue that I'm reluctant to get it.

      I've concluded that Coach profiles, coach ratings, and playbooks do NOT have any discernible effect on the APG issue. This can be ascertained by trading the whole Mavs roster for the whole Clippers roster. CP3 still can't pass the ball. Your observation that APG is held down by the PG being the team's best player seems mostly right. Wesbrook is usually around 6.3-6.5 APG and he's 4 OVR points lower than Durant in the stock roster, but he's not underperforming nearly as badly as the other superstar PGs. I suspect I can get him up to 8 APG with just shot tendency and Draw Foul editing.

      Of course I do know to control for MPG when taking about these per-game stats. I've done all testing in season mode with injuries off, and I've set these PGs' minutes to reflect their usual MPG. CP3 and Deron have averaged 35-36 MPG for all tests, Nash around 32. These PGs are defintely massive underperforming in assist per minute as well as APG.

      I haven't looked much at association mode other than the first time i simmed a season in it and backed out in horror at Paul and Williams both being below 7 APG. If it's even less realistic in simmed stats than Season mode that does not bode well. I assume the effect must be due to player roles and chemistry, which seem like more of a headache than they're worth anyway.

      Comment

      • elknavo
        Banned
        • Dec 2011
        • 135

        #33
        Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

        Originally posted by youALREADYknow
        It is clear though that assists are a statistic that we have control over. If only Blocks were the same way. Another less glaring issue is that most passing PF/C end up with fewer assists than would be expected and it's largely due to the horrible Pass ratings that are given to them by default.

        I wonder if these low pass ratings by non-PG have any indirect impact on team stats but haven't had time to do a proper test.
        The blocks issue is bad but it doesn't bother me as much because there's less blocks in the NBA than in years past, and they come in low numbers anyway. I do have a theory that a 99 BLK player might block more shots in simmed stats if you lowered the offensive ratings of the whole league but that would probably break more than it fixed.


        GOod point about passing bigs, that's also an issue. It seems that a lot of 3-4 APG guys with middling pass ratings get less than half as many assists as they should. Unlike with the star PGs, we can just raise their pass rating higher, can't we? Maybe the scale is just different by position, like 90 pass = 9 APG for a PG, 7 for a SF, 5 for a C? If that's the case, then it's clear most bigs are massively underrated in passing (as they are in speed and quickness). Strangely, however, I've observed that the PG's assist totals are often hurt if there's another high APG player. Take Billups (5 APG) off the Clippers and Paul gets about 1 APG more in the same minutes... so this probably has an effect, as there's only so many assists your players can get. It still doesn't explain Nash, who has a reasonably low shot tendency, 98 Pass rating, no other high Pass rating players, and still can't break 8 APG.

        Comment

        • DukeC
          Banned
          • Jul 2011
          • 5751

          #34
          Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

          Halfway point in my sim (The All-Star game) and the numbers are...

          Paul: 7.7 APG (Though Billups is also averaging 4.1 APG so that could be taking away from his assits).

          Deron: 6.8 APG (Next highest is 1.1)

          Nash: 6.7 APG. (Next highest is also 1.1)

          This is with lowering thier On Ball defense and Def Awareness to 25 so they are no longer the best player on the team (though Deron is a 76, tied with Brook Lopez. Paul is a 78 and Nash is a 73).

          I didn't edit the commit foul tendency for either of them so Deron is only averaging around 32.8 MPG (I set them all to 36 MPG in the rotation). Nash is around 34.8 as well as Paul though.

          This is also with injuries off.

          Comment

          • elknavo
            Banned
            • Dec 2011
            • 135

            #35
            Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

            Originally posted by youALREADYknow
            82 Pass rating is still elite compared to most of the league in this game though. I've never seen Conley above 9.5 APG in all of my sims so far while guys like Rondo can get up around 11 APG. I can try to lower his Pass rating and run a test to see if he still outperforms by such a wide margin.

            I'm leaning towards the ratings of other players on the team being the most important driver for reaching the assist potential for the PG or primary ball-handler. Another great example is LeBron. He clearly has all of the tools and supporting cast to reach very high assist totals but since he's the highest rated player on the team his assist totals suffer. Paul for NO is the highest rated player on the team. Williams for NJ is the highest rated player on the team. Nash for PHX is the highest rated player on the team.

            Rondo, Conley, Kidd, etc are not the top rated players on their teams in most rosters and that's why I think they are getting the assists.

            Another great test would be to lower these player's defensive attributes in order to lower the OVR to make them the 3rd or 4th best player on the team and see whether their assist totals improve.

            If you're willing to do some of these tests too then I'm sure we can find this out in just a few hours. I can also test Touches on PG's to see if the sim stats are different.
            I guess 82 is actually a pretty elite rating on a 25-100 scale... maybe 82 equates to a "ceiling" of around 8-9 APG then, and conley is so high on the league leaders because he's on one of the few teams that allows its pg to reach the APG ceiling.

            The OVR theory was a nice idea but I just tested it and it's not the answer. I gimped CP3's defense so that Blake was the team's best player by 13 OVR points. Still 7 APG.

            So we know that's wrong, but your mentioning LeBron piqued my curiosity. He's usually around 6 APG despite an elite (90) pass rating. We know it's not because of OVR, but the Heat must be a "low assist" team.

            I swapped LeBron for Kidd. And simmed a season a few times. APG hovered around 8. I simmed a season with LeBron's shot tendency set to the same as Kidd's and he put up 12 APG. So what you're observing there is not the effect of OVR, but shot tendency and teammates. CP3, Nash, and Williams have the highest shot tendencies of those PGs and are on low-assist teams, so their assist stats are the most off.

            Comment

            • elknavo
              Banned
              • Dec 2011
              • 135

              #36
              Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

              Originally posted by DukeC
              Halfway point in my sim (The All-Star game) and the numbers are...

              Paul: 7.7 APG (Though Billups is also averaging 4.1 APG so that could be taking away from his assits).

              Deron: 6.8 APG (Next highest is 1.1)

              Nash: 6.7 APG. (Next highest is also 1.1)

              This is with lowering thier On Ball defense and Def Awareness to 25 so they are no longer the best player on the team (though Deron is a 76, tied with Brook Lopez. Paul is a 78 and Nash is a 73).

              I didn't edit the commit foul tendency for either of them so Deron is only averaging around 32.8 MPG (I set them all to 36 MPG in the rotation). Nash is around 34.8 as well as Paul though.

              This is also with injuries off.

              That's a little higher APG than I usually see for Paul. Were you starting Billups? Maybe he gets more APG if he's not on the floor with another high APG guy....

              Comment

              • DukeC
                Banned
                • Jul 2011
                • 5751

                #37
                Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                Originally posted by elknavo
                That's a little higher APG than I usually see for Paul. Were you starting Billups? Maybe he gets more APG if he's not on the floor with another high APG guy....
                Billups was coming off the bench. Randy Foye was starting (getting around 30 MPG too. The rotation was already set that way).

                Well...at the end of the season the simmed stats are....

                Paul: 7.5 APG

                Deron:6.6 APG

                Nash: 7.3 APG.

                Very dissapointing.

                In other news, Conley averaged 8.4 APG. Kidd averaged 11.9 APG, and Rondo averaged 10.9 APG. Didn't do a single thing to them.

                Comment

                • youALREADYknow
                  MVP
                  • Aug 2008
                  • 3635

                  #38
                  Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                  Lowered Deron Williams to 70 OVR on Nets (3rd highest on team) and raised a few other players to 71/72. No noticeable difference in assists at 7.8-8.6 APG per sim in 32-33 MPG.

                  *Reset roster*

                  Raised Offensive Tempo to 100 for Nets. No noticeable difference in assists at 7.7-8.4 APG per sim in 32-33 MPG.

                  *Reset roster*

                  Raised starting teammates Shot Tendencies to 75-80. Slight difference in assists at 8.3-9.2 APG per sim in 32-33 MPG. This is probably about right in terms of rate adjusted assists per game.

                  *Reset roster*

                  Traded Amare Stoudemire (87 OVR) and Rudy Gay (80 OVR) to the Nets for reserves before starting Association mode. Large difference in assists at 9.2-10.1 APG per sim. This is slightly above Williams rate adjusted assist averages considering that he was only getting 32.5 MPG on average.

                  Basically, it looks like the team as a whole is still more important than any one part. Shot Tendencies, Team OFF rating, and the PG's role on the team (only good offensive player vs. among other good offensive players) seem to matter the most for assists for point guards.

                  There could also be an impact from the Coach ratings and Team Chemistry but both of those are somewhat out of our control so I'll leave those for someone else to figure out.

                  Williams and Nash are the only two players that I can think of who I've had any problems getting to 9.5-10 APG with regular starters minutes and it's because the rest of their teams are absolute garbage. If Shot Tendencies are tweaked a bit here and there to get the ball in the hands of the few scorers on those teams then it seems this becomes a non-issue. Nash averaged about 9 APG on my rosters already which was in-line with his averages but with a few less PPG.

                  I tested Touches by itself without Shot Tendency changes and there was no impact for simmed games. My apologies to all for recommending Touches changes instead of Shot Tendency changes without testing them independently. This means that Touches changes the Game Engine while Shot Tendency changes the Sim Engine.

                  Comment

                  • Rockie_Fresh88
                    Lockdown Defender
                    • Oct 2011
                    • 9621

                    #39
                    Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                    Lower the passing rating of Deron Williams teammates to very low and make sure his is 90+... now sim & tell me what you see...
                    #1 Laker fan
                    First Team Defense !!!

                    Comment

                    • Rockie_Fresh88
                      Lockdown Defender
                      • Oct 2011
                      • 9621

                      #40
                      Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                      not saying thats a solution its def not
                      #1 Laker fan
                      First Team Defense !!!

                      Comment

                      • youALREADYknow
                        MVP
                        • Aug 2008
                        • 3635

                        #41
                        Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                        Originally posted by DukeC
                        Billups was coming off the bench. Randy Foye was starting (getting around 30 MPG too. The rotation was already set that way).

                        Well...at the end of the season the simmed stats are....

                        Paul: 7.5 APG

                        Deron:6.6 APG

                        Nash: 7.3 APG.

                        Very dissapointing.

                        In other news, Conley averaged 8.4 APG. Kidd averaged 11.9 APG, and Rondo averaged 10.9 APG. Didn't do a single thing to them.
                        Matches what I'm seeing aside from my roster having Paul at 8.0-8.5 APG, Williams at 7.8-8.5 APG, and Nash at 8.5-9.2 APG by default.

                        The highest impact seems to be the offensive talent around the PG. The next highest impact is the Shot Tendency distribution among the team to ensure scorers get a lot of shots in simmed games.

                        By lowering the OVR of the PG, we didn't really impact how terrible the team's offense was in the first place.

                        Maybe a few more tests could find some low impact ways of raising the offensive awareness and pass ratings across the league without impacting gameplay but this is enough for one day to at least say we've got some information we didn't have yesterday. I think I'll stick with what I was using before except for now I'll use a few Shot Tendency tweaks on certain players to get better sim results.

                        Comment

                        • CAN_JE
                          Rookie
                          • Apr 2010
                          • 170

                          #42
                          Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                          Originally posted by mars5541
                          Lower the passing rating of Deron Williams teammates to very low and make sure his is 90+... now sim & tell me what you see...
                          i think it's not a solution because then you'll not have a real ast stats for other guys. At least it was in 2k11, where passing forwards like Gasol, Griffin, Dunkan.. had only 1-1,5 assists per game.

                          Comment

                          • Rockie_Fresh88
                            Lockdown Defender
                            • Oct 2011
                            • 9621

                            #43
                            Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                            yeah my post right after that says not a solution just showing how passing rating affects simulated stats
                            #1 Laker fan
                            First Team Defense !!!

                            Comment

                            • elknavo
                              Banned
                              • Dec 2011
                              • 135

                              #44
                              Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                              Originally posted by mars5541
                              Lower the passing rating of Deron Williams teammates to very low and make sure his is 90+... now sim & tell me what you see...
                              I tried this with the Suns. Nash averaged 5.5 APG. Is this supposed to raise the PG's assists?

                              Comment

                              • Rockie_Fresh88
                                Lockdown Defender
                                • Oct 2011
                                • 9621

                                #45
                                Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

                                lol thats weird . I never play association. I like season mode for my sim taste
                                #1 Laker fan
                                First Team Defense !!!

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