This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

[DigiMich]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Earlier question

In rereading the thread I missed a question you asked me. You asked..."you seem like a person who thinks open shots should always go in"

That is untrue. I dont care if open shots go in or not I want to understand why they do.

Here is the thing and why I think this thread is breaking down. I am a scientific journalist by trade...you know what my job is? To ask why, all the time. This often makes me come across like a dick because a vast majority of most people are not used to actually proving the things that they casually say.

In re-reading this thread I havent disagreed with a single person. Seriously...other than the fact that I told one guy I think a hotzones are more important than ratings.

The only thing I have done here is to ask people to have some actual substance in proving the things that they are saying. The misconception is that I am trying to prove I am right....naw...I dont care to be right. I care to listen to the feedback and insight from the people I asked the question to.

Guys seriously, go back and re-read the thread and see how many times I only ask why or how whatever you are saying will work. Just like Mouth here...I never said to him I didnt believe or that I disagreed with him (actually I am pretty sure I said I agreed with him many times) but he stated that they were based on real life shooting percentage...of course that prompts me to go find real life shooting percentages which didnt match up. Then he just dismissed the whole thing without providing any links of his own. Ya just cant do that.

You guys see the pattern here? Someone says something, I ask why, if you dont provide their own information than I find some and ask them to explain it.

So I will ask my question in a different way.

Do you think that the hotzones are what is causing non superstar role players to be able to perform certain actions not accustom to their real life counter parts? IE Novak coming off of screens, running around the arc for an open 3 etc etc.

Also, we all know that Hotzones are affecting the players in some way shape or form...do you believe it is too much? Too little? Fair?

Lastly, do you think the amount of hotzones for certain players are fair given the fact that often times they are shooting less than 5 shots a game in real life? Basically....is hitting 20 shots from one area really a hotzone for a player given the fact that the player probably doesnt play even to miss that many shots.



Also JWill.....sorry buddy I missed something you said before. Force Feedback provides a rumble when you are in a hotzone. Gotcha sorry I missed that before. Never heard of it.....I dont even know where in the game I can turn it on. I will test it out tomorrow. But if true...I apologize. Hell is it even in the manual?


By the way Mouth, if you look through the thread you would notice that I never once insulted you yet you have done nothing but hurl insults towards me. One of us certainty isnt as rage filled as the other..so I dont really know if we are arguing as much as you think.

[jonapaloma]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

To go a little off topic. I think the best thing to get answers is to ask 2K. They are really the only ones to know how this is actually work

[LoudMouthHoops]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Guys seriously, go back and re-read the thread and see how many times I only ask why or how whatever you are saying will work. Just like Mouth here...I never said to him I didnt believe or that I disagreed with him (actually I am pretty sure I said I agreed with him many times) but he stated that they were based on real life shooting percentage...of course that prompts me to go find real life shooting percentages which didnt match up. Then he just dismissed the whole thing without providing any links of his own. Ya just cant do that.

I didn't "dismiss" anything.

The stats you provided are OBVIOUSLY different stats....I mean, it's OBVIOUS.

They don't "match up" because they are NOT the same stats. I'm sorry, but a 12 year old could look at those two DIFFERENT shot charts stats and realize they are DIFFERENT....and then logically process that they don't "match up" because they are NOT the same!

Do you see the problem here?

Myself and Coach2K.com both said that if the shot chart stats have been used by the NBA since NBA Live 08....and the same concept has been borrowed into NBA2K....it's NOT a huge leap to believe that 2K has access to those stats thru either the NBA or maybe even Stats Inc.

I even said in an earlier post that there is no way I can PROVE this...but I think it's fairly safe to say this is what is probably happening. But...you probably wouldn't know that because you don't even READ my posts, you said so yourself.

You guys see the pattern here? Someone says something, I ask why, if you dont provide their own information than I find some and ask them to explain it.

Oh...so that's how you see it? Funny, I see it more like this....

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ymdo4S0zLVE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Or I have flashbacks to that old Louis CK bit....


<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/BJlV49RDlLE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

By the way Mouth, if you look through the thread you would notice that I never once insulted you yet you have done nothing but hurl insults towards me. One of us certainty isnt as rage filled as the other..so I dont really know if we are arguing as much as you think.

Sure...but you find other ways to antagonize people like completely taking their posts out of context, exaggerating things, and taking a historical reference to the old stat links I posted as an opportunity to take a "shot" at me and then telling me to "do my homework, son".

I clearly posted those as a way of showing that those stats have been made available in the past...and were even made public....so it isn't a stretch to think that 2K has access to the updated shot chart stats like that NOW.

But instead you've tried to turn that into a "gotcha" quote...because the stats are outdated and from an old game. Even though I clearly prefaced my reference to them. But that is what you do...as I posted before, I knew with 99% certainty that would be your "comeback"....so predictable.

What aggression I do bring is at least straightforward....and not some type of passive aggressive BS.

[LoudMouthHoops]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

I will answer the questions in a civil manner...and then I thin I'm done.

I have a crapload of WORK to do anyway.

So I will ask my question in a different way.

Do you think that the hotzones are what is causing non superstar role players to be able to perform certain actions not accustom to their real life counter parts? IE Novak coming off of screens, running around the arc for an open 3 etc etc.

No, I don't. I think they add a little bit of realism to the game. If a certain player makes a higher % of his shots in a certain zone, I think it's a nice addition to the game.

Is it a little open to abuse. Sure...I will say that. But I don't think it alone makes the game unrealistic...and I don't think you can remove things like this just because it may get abused.

Also, we all know that Hotzones are affecting the players in some way shape or form...do you believe it is too much? Too little? Fair?

I think it's fair. Is it open to abuse? A little...but I think it shifts the game more realistically than unrealistically, if that makes sense.

Lastly, do you think the amount of hotzones for certain players are fair given the fact that often times they are shooting less than 5 shots a game in real life? Basically....is hitting 20 shots from one area really a hotzone for a player given the fact that the player probably doesnt play even to miss that many shots.

I think you stick with the stats and keep the Hot Zones regardless of shot attempts. Now this doesn't mean to do it to the far EXTREME....like if Andrew Bynum happens to shoot 100% from a 3 Pt zone because he makes 1 shot...then that doesn't deserve the Hot zone.

But if guys are making over 50%...or whatever the number is...even with limited attempts, I think they should get the Hot Zones as they do now.

I understand what you are saying here. A small sample size can effect the Hot/Cold zones....I totally get it.

I don't know how 2K handles it now, but as long as they aren't labeling Hot zones for extremely low sample sizes - I still agree with that way of doing it.

[JasonWilliams55]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Synergy sports is likely one site that carries shot charts for all players.

Again why does anyone assume a boost in players shots, 2k has never mentioned this and has only stated that they shoot better than avg in red zones, their avg in grey and below their avg in blue.

So again lets break that down.

Say KD shoots 50% on avg (# is arbitrary)

So any spots on the floor where he shoots 50% will get grey. Now what gets designated blue/red, since we don't know we can only guess at what the differences are, but more than likely its only a few % points. So lets go with 5% difference, 50% = avg, 55% = red, 45% = blue.

Okay with that out of the way, when you go to shoot in a grey spot you are gonna get the avg % as your baseline factor for the shot release, 2k has stated before that a perfect release will grant you a small % boost to your shot % factor. So perfect releases go in more than early/late, obvious.

Here is where people are getting mixed up, the game does not give a boost in the red zones, it just doesn't penalize you as much with off releases. Blue zones increase the penalties for off releases, meaning its harder to make shot, red = easier. There are no rating changes, there are no boosts for the last time, you just don't get penalized as much, I did state this in the thread earlier.

This was easily understandable if you read the Dev Insight and then watched DaCzars video that I posted.

[Coach2K]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

I just hope a mod doesnt come in here and close the thread because there is some discussion going on amongst the handful of people who are actually thinking.

I kind of hope one does.

[DigiMich]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Synergy sports is likely one site that carries shot charts for all players.

Again why does anyone assume a boost in players shots, 2k has never mentioned this and has only stated that they shoot better than avg in red zones, their avg in grey and below their avg in blue.

So again lets break that down.

Say KD shoots 50% on avg (# is arbitrary)

So any spots on the floor where he shoots 50% will get grey. Now what gets designated blue/red, since we don't know we can only guess at what the differences are, but more than likely its only a few % points. So lets go with 5% difference, 50% = avg, 55% = red, 45% = blue.

JWill...I love ya man but you seriously seem to be caught on that same point. No one as far as I know has disagreed with what you are saying. I get what you are saying man. Its valid..I accept it. I did when you first posted it 5 pages ago. What am I saying that makes it sound like I am debating you on this topic? Seriously tell me? Because I think you and I are in a constant miscommunication as it feels like you are trying to hard to prove a point no one is challenging. By the way there are several others who do think hotzones give you a boost.

The only thing I have ever actually stated as my direct opinion was that I believe having players with more hotzones is more effective than having multiple superstars from a gameplay standpoint.

For the second part, I think you are getting caught up on semantics of the word boost and you are missing out on some of the things that are said. Not only did I say that exact same thing earlier when in reference to the question of does the hot zones just negate poor timing I also suggested that same "test" Czar did in the video you posted. Most people told a test like that wouldnt be acceptable as proof of anything unless without other factors like a controller that records shot timing.

I think you and I's problem is a very typical internet trope. In reality I believe you and I are saying the same thing but because I am entertain a verity of ideas from each poster responding to me you think I have several different opinions. All of the things that you are posting I suggested already and was told "no mas amigo" by other posters.

Its not me you are battling my friend....I am only the messenger here. You should re-read the thread and see how many times I suggest what you are suggesting and have it be shot down.

[Coach2K]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Lol....I'm not sure really what point you are trying to make anymore.

[willIam9387]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

I'd take the multiple superstars every time over great set shooters with multiple hot zones. At least guys like Melo, Lebron, and Durant can create their own shot and shoot with a high percentage with a hand in their face. When you referenced Steve Novak and his multiple hot zones a lot of the shots he takes are wide open and rarely with a hand in his face. The wide open shots he takes are the byproduct of Melo commanding most of the attention. Put J.R. Smith on the floor with Melo and Novak and suddenly Smith and Melo now both command attention, therefore, Novak if he plays his cards right will be open at some point on the play, so if MElo and J.R. Smith find him he is going to take a high percentage shot.

What we should be looking at DigiMich is how incredible a feat it is for guys like Lebron and Durant to even be average at all their shot zones for the most part when they are being double teamed, help defense is concentrated around them, they are being defended by the team's defensive specialist every game. That is why I would take them every time over a guy like Novak because guys like that can't create their shots.


I've always thought of the hot zones as a training tool for the player, knowing where you want to shoot from with a star player or any player in general is a great tool. Kevin Durant, Melo, and Lebron if they could would try to get to their special spot on the floor every time down court, because it is their money spot. I bet when we see isolation set plays at the end of games for these stars, these guys are bent on getting to the spot to take a game-winning shot.

There is nothing cheesy about the hot zones in 2k because they merely represent where a player is likely to have a higher percentage or lower percentage than average of making a shot. It's a training tool and any player who takes into account their player's hot zones isn't cheesing, they are doing what the pros do and what their coaches encourage them to do is to take shots from where they are most comfortable with. It's dependent on the defense to stop them from getting to those hot zones.

This is an applicable issue nowadays since computer statistical models have given coaches great information into hot zones and have allowed coaches to develop defensive strategies against the star players of today's NBA.

[MVP9072]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

^ what he said and JWill 100 times already

This thread should be closed by now

[DigiMich]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

I'd take the multiple superstars every time over great set shooters with multiple hot zones. At least guys like Melo, Lebron, and Durant can create their own shot and shoot with a high percentage with a hand in their face. When you referenced Steve Novak and his multiple hot zones a lot of the shots he takes are wide open and rarely with a hand in his face. The wide open shots he takes are the byproduct of Melo commanding most of the attention. Put J.R. Smith on the floor with Melo and Novak and suddenly Smith and Melo now both command attention, therefore, Novak if he plays his cards right will be open at some point on the play, so if MElo and J.R. Smith find him he is going to take a high percentage shot.

What we should be looking at DigiMich is how incredible a feat it is for guys like Lebron and Durant to even be average at all their shot zones for the most part when they are being double teamed, help defense is concentrated around them, they are being defended by the team's defensive specialist every game. That is why I would take them every time over a guy like Novak because guys like that can't create their shots.


I've always thought of the hot zones as a training tool for the player, knowing where you want to shoot from with a star player or any player in general is a great tool. Kevin Durant, Melo, and Lebron if they could would try to get to their special spot on the floor every time down court, because it is their money spot. I bet when we see isolation set plays at the end of games for these stars, these guys are bent on getting to the spot to take a game-winning shot.

There is nothing cheesy about the hot zones in 2k because they merely represent where a player is likely to have a higher percentage or lower percentage than average of making a shot. It's a training tool and any player who takes into account their player's hot zones isn't cheesing, they are doing what the pros do and what their coaches encourage them to do is to take shots from where they are most comfortable with. It's dependent on the defense to stop them from getting to those hot zones.

This is an applicable issue nowadays since computer statistical models have given coaches great information into hot zones and have allowed coaches to develop defensive strategies against the star players of today's NBA.

Now that my friend is a relevant post ya. Great insight, great analyst incredible point. Although I will point out that I never brought up cheesy. I simply asked the question is a person with more hotzones more effective than one without. Although the game doesnt do much to actually show you the hotzones when you are not in practice expect this force feedback that is off by default as JWill brought up.

I never thought about it in the way you are presenting....that the reverse might actually be true. That the fact there is no penalty for shooting from virtually everywhere is a positive. But wouldnt that mean more players would have cold zones so that having a grey ones have more of an impact? For example....Novak would have all blue zones expect of course 3 point shots so that having all gray zones turns into a positive for other players?


Now to continue with your point about Novak...that was the original question. Novak shoots completely wide open shots in real life...but as we all know...him, korver, Morrow, etc etc routinely hit shots of the dribble, shoots in traffic, shots from hop steps...we all know of the running around the arc cheese for a free 3 point shot. This was brought up by 2 separate poster (not me) at the beginning of the thread. Although this might be a complete separate discussion. The original question was how that relates to the hotzones. Is it easier for you do that hop step, fade away, run around the arc for a flick 3 because of the hotzones assigned to those types of shooters?


But I believe your point...that grey is actually a positive. Then I still would ask the question does that make Novak a far more effective shooter in terms of gameplay than KD because he only has red and grey zones. That would mean at any give time he is shooting with a bonus (or his timing is being forgiven, whatever you want to call this) or shooting at average in a grey zone.

For example.. in that theory Novak would have cold zones in the paint...cold zones at the free throwish line and red at the 3 point line.
It just seems like for your theory the reverse should be happening in game. That KD would have all red because he can always get a shot off while Novak would have mostly grey and 2 or 3 red because he cant. Does that makes sense?

Lastly, MVP come off it....there is nothing worse than the guy who doesnt present his own idea but just says..."Yay Wat He Said!!"

[MVP9072]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

J Will and Coach have been educating you on this thread for a while now and yet you keep whining about how somebody like Novak owns you.

[willIam9387]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

I wouldn't say Novak is a more effective shooter than Kevin Durant, they play two different roles on the court. KD creates his own shot and offense, while Steve Novak is a beneficiary of having a supreme offensive player on his team. Even in-game I'd take KD because he is the better shooter because he can knock down contested shots. Novak is only a benefit to the team when he is wide open. I've never played against someone who cheesed me with Novak, so I wouldn't know how that was, so I can't speak to that. I was just trying to explain how the hot zones work.

I would say that the one problem with the hot zones is they don't differentiate based shooting off the dribble and shooting wide open, so KD could have less hot zones because in real NBA games he takes more contested shots while Novak takes less contested shots. I'm pretty sure if KD got the same looks Novak got in real life, he'd sink the same percentage, and a coach would prob get fired if Durant got Novak's looks game to game.


Edit: Synergy does count off the dribble shot attempts, so I guess that is included in the hot zones 2k develops for each player.

[JazzMan]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Hot and cold zones are not the reason you are missing open jumpshots. People miss open jumpers all the time in the NBA. Just because they're wide open doesn't mean they should drain it 9/10 times.

Good luck trying to win a game fielding a team of Daniel Gibson, Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, Steve Novak, and Matt Bonner. None of those guys can create and get open shots for themselves. The only way you'd be able to score is if you ran set plays that gave guys looks for 3's, but either you'll go cold or you'll turn the ball over because none of them are elite ballhandlers. Don't even get me started on defense and rebounding...

My point: Stop complaining because a shooter is knocking down 3-pointers. It's what they're paid to do. Guys like Durant, Lebron, Melo, and Kobe are scorers, not shooters.

[hear me now]

Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

Now that my friend is a relevant post ya. Great insight, great analyst incredible point. Although I will point out that I never brought up cheesy. I simply asked the question is a person with more hotzones more effective than one without. Although the game doesnt do much to actually show you the hotzones when you are not in practice expect this force feedback that is off by default as JWill brought up.

I never thought about it in the way you are presenting....that the reverse might actually be true. That the fact there is no penalty for shooting from virtually everywhere is a positive. But wouldnt that mean more players would have cold zones so that having a grey ones have more of an impact? For example....Novak would have all blue zones expect of course 3 point shots so that having all gray zones turns into a positive for other players?


Now to continue with your point about Novak...that was the original question. Novak shoots completely wide open shots in real life...but as we all know...him, korver, Morrow, etc etc routinely hit shots of the dribble, shoots in traffic, shots from hop steps...we all know of the running around the arc cheese for a free 3 point shot. This was brought up by 2 separate poster (not me) at the beginning of the thread. Although this might be a complete separate discussion. The original question was how that relates to the hotzones. Is it easier for you do that hop step, fade away, run around the arc for a flick 3 because of the hotzones assigned to those types of shooters?


But I believe your point...that grey is actually a positive. Then I still would ask the question does that make Novak a far more effective shooter in terms of gameplay than KD because he only has red and grey zones. That would mean at any give time he is shooting with a bonus (or his timing is being forgiven, whatever you want to call this) or shooting at average in a grey zone.

For example.. in that theory Novak would have cold zones in the paint...cold zones at the free throwish line and red at the 3 point line.
It just seems like for your theory the reverse should be happening in game. That KD would have all red because he can always get a shot off while Novak would have mostly grey and 2 or 3 red because he cant. Does that makes sense?

Lastly, MVP come off it....there is nothing worse than the guy who doesnt present his own idea but just says..."Yay Wat He Said!!"

If you are saying Novak can only make threes,and he can't shoot off the dribble,then I disagree.He can shoot off the dribble,his problem is that he is slow.If he is open,then he can make open mid range shots off the dribble in real life.