Re: Royal Rebuild [OOTP 19]
ROYALS MONTHLY MAILBAG
To trade or not to trade, that is the question
By artoodeetoo
07/16/2020
With the second half gearing up, the Royals find themselves in a precarious position -- do they deal assets, or hold in the event that they make another miraculous second-half run? Also, we'll discuss the ETA's of some potential Royals rookies down the road, and the non-signing of first-round pick Johnny Cuevas.
Was it a mistake to move Brad Hand so early?
Travis Greenleaf was criticized by some for moving too early on Trevor Rosenthal last year, but one of the fruits of that trade is now thriving in Kansas City (Mitchell White). Jensen Elliott, whom the Royals received for Hand, was considered to be one of the more MLB-ready pitchers in San Francisco's system.
However, selling a veteran early in the process doesn't preclude the Royals from making a move later, as they showed last year. It was pricey in terms of prospects, but later on in the trading period, they grabbed Jimmy Nelson, Corey Knebel, and David Peralta in two sweeping deals. Peralta largely was a bust; but Nelson, and especially Knebel, were instrumental in the Royals' second-half and playoff runs.
Much of the trading strategy this time around is going to be decided in the first week of the second half, with seven home games total against Detroit (three), and the White Sox (four). Detroit is just a half-game back of the Royals in the division and wildcard races, and the White Sox are terrible. If they don't come out with four or five wins against them by this time a week from Friday, let the trade rumors fly; especially if one or two of the other teams in front of the Royals (Cleveland, Toronto, Tampa, the Yankees) begin to pull away.
Is there an argument to be made for not trading Danny Duffy if the Royals find themselves out of the race in a few weeks?
Yes. A fairly decent one, actually. Let's say Duffy doesn't get traded, the Royals fall out of the race in mid-July, and they miss the postseason by five or six games (would finish with between seventy-seven and eighty-two wins, approximately). The division still isn't all that strong, even with a resurgent Cleveland squad, and a better Minnesota outfit. Kansas City should have a decent amount of cash to spend this offseason to supplement the young talent on the roster, and make another run at the division.
If you trade Duffy, it could be a signal to future free agents down the line that the team doesn't expect to compete in 2021, and maybe 2022. That's a pretty powerful message, even if I don't necessarily agree that is the case. You still have Cheslor Cuthbert, Peter Alonso, Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, and potentially someone like Khalil Lee, Adley Rutschman, or Seuly Matias on the roster for multiple seasons.
That said, the case to trade Duffy is much, much stronger at this point still, provided two things occur -- the Royals fall out of the race, and that he continues to pitch as well as he has lately. Duffy is under contract for $15.5M next year, which is going to come cheaper than say, Jose Quintana, who is going to command nearly $20M AAV over four or five seasons most likely. That point alone would likely net the Royals one, maybe two premium prospects, and one or two B/C-level prospects. And, even if this does happen, I wouldn't rule out a return to KC after 2021, as Duffy LOVES K.C. and pitching for the Royals; especially after the organization stood by him during his near-retirement from the sport a handful of years ago.
What would next year's rotation look like without Duffy?
Good question. He's the closest thing to a number-one they have, and I'd argue he's a two or three at best on a championship-caliber team. There's just a whole lot of uncertainty around Trevor Oaks' health, and he wasn't good this season prior to the shoulder injury, either. Jake Junis is giving up homeruns in bunches, and his walk rate has increased each year without a corresponding increase in swing-and-miss rates. And despite a pretty good month of June, I've been lukewarm overall on Jorge Lopez as a starter. He has swing-and-miss stuff, but doesn't trust it enough; and tries to aim his pitches too much, which leads him to getting hit hard.
As I've said before, the Royals likely aren't going to swim in the deep end of the free-agent pitching class this offseason. Even though extending Danny Duffy has largely worked out, the Ian Kennedy deal has probably caused some apprehension from ownership on handing out another pricey free agent contract to an aging starter, no matter how good they might be. However, a second reason is the emergence of Mitchell White and Heath Fillmyer as potential 2021 options. They each have their flaws, but on the whole, I've been more impressed with them than Lopez to this point.
In that case, the top three will likely consist of Oaks, Junis, and a mid-level FA signee in some order. If Oaks isn't healthy in time for Opening Day next year, I think Fillmyer moves into that top group based on what I've seen so far, with White, Lopez, and southpaws Daniel Lynch and Eric Skoglund battling for the fourth and fifth spots. Skoglund is very likely to be on the 2021 roster in some capacity as he's out of options; so if he doesn't win a rotation slot, he will most assuredly assume a bullpen role as one of the few lefties with MLB experience on the 40-man roster. The Royals have always liked to have at least one, if not two, southpaws in the rotation, so if the potential FA signee is right-handed, I would expect one or both of Skoglund and Lynch to be in the rotation next season.
Ideally, Lopez (who is also out of options) goes back to the bullpen, where he was pretty solid in 2019. Patrick Murphy, who they acquired in the Ian Kennedy deal back in May, would appear to be a competitor, as he's twenty-five, along with 2014 first-rounder Foster Griffin, a lefty. As far as darkhorse candidates -- we all know about Derek West, but I've also read pretty glowing reports from Double-A about Jackson Kowar. I don't think he'd skip Triple-A, but he'll definitely be in the mix in the spring as a non-roster invitee at the least.
Are the Royals to blame for not signing Johnny Cuevas?
To me, the negotiations seemed like bad faith on the part of the Cuevas camp from the jump. For one, they weren't happy that he slipped out of the top ten, and secondly, from public accounts that he wasn't picked by a team closer to their California home, or a higher-profile franchise. Those seem like understandable reasons to be disappointed; or it could be spin from the Royals, but there was seemingly a lot of smoke around the rumor that they were putting unreasonable demands on the Royals to get him to sign -- namely, dictating to the Royals which affiliate he would start at, and moving the goalposts on the asking price it would take to get his signature.
They'll get back-to-back picks in the first round next year, which is by most reports a deeper class, so it's not a complete loss. With the money freed up, they were able to lock up a few high school selections in later rounds; with the most notable being eighth-round catcher Brandon Gaskins, whom they were able to pry away from a commitment to Stanford with a $1.25M bonus.
With Seuly Matias now in the majors,what are the ETA's for these seven players -- Khalil Lee, Michael Gigliotti, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Nick Pratto, Daniel Lynch, and Derek West?
With the active rosters after September 1st getting trimmed to twenty-eight from forty next year, I think you'll see the Royals utilize this last season of 40-man flexibility to get some of these guys experience in the majors this year, quite possibly a year before they are optimally ready. The outfield could look drastically different in 2021, so that's why you see two OF's in the mix.
That said, these are just guesses at this point, so here goes:
2020: Gigliotti, Lee, Lynch (September)
2021: West (June), Singer, Kowar (September)
2022: Pratto (June)
Pratto is an interesting case. He's just now turning twenty-two, and is having a fantastic year in Double-A. But he's blocked at the big-league level by Peter Alonso, who seems to be entrenched. It stands to reason that he'll be the team's first baseman for the foreseeable future, so it will be interesting to see what the Royals do with him. He's a very athletic defender, and there's been some talk of moving him to the outfield.
ROYALS MONTHLY MAILBAG
To trade or not to trade, that is the question
By artoodeetoo
07/16/2020
With the second half gearing up, the Royals find themselves in a precarious position -- do they deal assets, or hold in the event that they make another miraculous second-half run? Also, we'll discuss the ETA's of some potential Royals rookies down the road, and the non-signing of first-round pick Johnny Cuevas.
Was it a mistake to move Brad Hand so early?
Travis Greenleaf was criticized by some for moving too early on Trevor Rosenthal last year, but one of the fruits of that trade is now thriving in Kansas City (Mitchell White). Jensen Elliott, whom the Royals received for Hand, was considered to be one of the more MLB-ready pitchers in San Francisco's system.
However, selling a veteran early in the process doesn't preclude the Royals from making a move later, as they showed last year. It was pricey in terms of prospects, but later on in the trading period, they grabbed Jimmy Nelson, Corey Knebel, and David Peralta in two sweeping deals. Peralta largely was a bust; but Nelson, and especially Knebel, were instrumental in the Royals' second-half and playoff runs.
Much of the trading strategy this time around is going to be decided in the first week of the second half, with seven home games total against Detroit (three), and the White Sox (four). Detroit is just a half-game back of the Royals in the division and wildcard races, and the White Sox are terrible. If they don't come out with four or five wins against them by this time a week from Friday, let the trade rumors fly; especially if one or two of the other teams in front of the Royals (Cleveland, Toronto, Tampa, the Yankees) begin to pull away.
Is there an argument to be made for not trading Danny Duffy if the Royals find themselves out of the race in a few weeks?
Yes. A fairly decent one, actually. Let's say Duffy doesn't get traded, the Royals fall out of the race in mid-July, and they miss the postseason by five or six games (would finish with between seventy-seven and eighty-two wins, approximately). The division still isn't all that strong, even with a resurgent Cleveland squad, and a better Minnesota outfit. Kansas City should have a decent amount of cash to spend this offseason to supplement the young talent on the roster, and make another run at the division.
If you trade Duffy, it could be a signal to future free agents down the line that the team doesn't expect to compete in 2021, and maybe 2022. That's a pretty powerful message, even if I don't necessarily agree that is the case. You still have Cheslor Cuthbert, Peter Alonso, Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, and potentially someone like Khalil Lee, Adley Rutschman, or Seuly Matias on the roster for multiple seasons.
That said, the case to trade Duffy is much, much stronger at this point still, provided two things occur -- the Royals fall out of the race, and that he continues to pitch as well as he has lately. Duffy is under contract for $15.5M next year, which is going to come cheaper than say, Jose Quintana, who is going to command nearly $20M AAV over four or five seasons most likely. That point alone would likely net the Royals one, maybe two premium prospects, and one or two B/C-level prospects. And, even if this does happen, I wouldn't rule out a return to KC after 2021, as Duffy LOVES K.C. and pitching for the Royals; especially after the organization stood by him during his near-retirement from the sport a handful of years ago.
What would next year's rotation look like without Duffy?
Good question. He's the closest thing to a number-one they have, and I'd argue he's a two or three at best on a championship-caliber team. There's just a whole lot of uncertainty around Trevor Oaks' health, and he wasn't good this season prior to the shoulder injury, either. Jake Junis is giving up homeruns in bunches, and his walk rate has increased each year without a corresponding increase in swing-and-miss rates. And despite a pretty good month of June, I've been lukewarm overall on Jorge Lopez as a starter. He has swing-and-miss stuff, but doesn't trust it enough; and tries to aim his pitches too much, which leads him to getting hit hard.
As I've said before, the Royals likely aren't going to swim in the deep end of the free-agent pitching class this offseason. Even though extending Danny Duffy has largely worked out, the Ian Kennedy deal has probably caused some apprehension from ownership on handing out another pricey free agent contract to an aging starter, no matter how good they might be. However, a second reason is the emergence of Mitchell White and Heath Fillmyer as potential 2021 options. They each have their flaws, but on the whole, I've been more impressed with them than Lopez to this point.
In that case, the top three will likely consist of Oaks, Junis, and a mid-level FA signee in some order. If Oaks isn't healthy in time for Opening Day next year, I think Fillmyer moves into that top group based on what I've seen so far, with White, Lopez, and southpaws Daniel Lynch and Eric Skoglund battling for the fourth and fifth spots. Skoglund is very likely to be on the 2021 roster in some capacity as he's out of options; so if he doesn't win a rotation slot, he will most assuredly assume a bullpen role as one of the few lefties with MLB experience on the 40-man roster. The Royals have always liked to have at least one, if not two, southpaws in the rotation, so if the potential FA signee is right-handed, I would expect one or both of Skoglund and Lynch to be in the rotation next season.
Ideally, Lopez (who is also out of options) goes back to the bullpen, where he was pretty solid in 2019. Patrick Murphy, who they acquired in the Ian Kennedy deal back in May, would appear to be a competitor, as he's twenty-five, along with 2014 first-rounder Foster Griffin, a lefty. As far as darkhorse candidates -- we all know about Derek West, but I've also read pretty glowing reports from Double-A about Jackson Kowar. I don't think he'd skip Triple-A, but he'll definitely be in the mix in the spring as a non-roster invitee at the least.
Are the Royals to blame for not signing Johnny Cuevas?
To me, the negotiations seemed like bad faith on the part of the Cuevas camp from the jump. For one, they weren't happy that he slipped out of the top ten, and secondly, from public accounts that he wasn't picked by a team closer to their California home, or a higher-profile franchise. Those seem like understandable reasons to be disappointed; or it could be spin from the Royals, but there was seemingly a lot of smoke around the rumor that they were putting unreasonable demands on the Royals to get him to sign -- namely, dictating to the Royals which affiliate he would start at, and moving the goalposts on the asking price it would take to get his signature.
They'll get back-to-back picks in the first round next year, which is by most reports a deeper class, so it's not a complete loss. With the money freed up, they were able to lock up a few high school selections in later rounds; with the most notable being eighth-round catcher Brandon Gaskins, whom they were able to pry away from a commitment to Stanford with a $1.25M bonus.
With Seuly Matias now in the majors,what are the ETA's for these seven players -- Khalil Lee, Michael Gigliotti, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Nick Pratto, Daniel Lynch, and Derek West?
With the active rosters after September 1st getting trimmed to twenty-eight from forty next year, I think you'll see the Royals utilize this last season of 40-man flexibility to get some of these guys experience in the majors this year, quite possibly a year before they are optimally ready. The outfield could look drastically different in 2021, so that's why you see two OF's in the mix.
That said, these are just guesses at this point, so here goes:
2020: Gigliotti, Lee, Lynch (September)
2021: West (June), Singer, Kowar (September)
2022: Pratto (June)
Pratto is an interesting case. He's just now turning twenty-two, and is having a fantastic year in Double-A. But he's blocked at the big-league level by Peter Alonso, who seems to be entrenched. It stands to reason that he'll be the team's first baseman for the foreseeable future, so it will be interesting to see what the Royals do with him. He's a very athletic defender, and there's been some talk of moving him to the outfield.
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