The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Pre-Selection Sunday Update

With the conference tournaments completed, it is now officially the most wonderful time of the year: March Madness time. And as has become custom, the Selection Committee is giving out info for this year's #1 seeds in the big dance. In what looks to be a top heavy field, there are some familiar faces.

2018 #1 Seeds

There is not a lot to dispute about this year's top seeds -- other than maybe some crying east coast bias. But North Carolina State gets to begin its title defense from the top of the field, and Maryland joins them after barely losing to the Wolfpack in the ACC Tournament Final. Meanwhile, Connecticut took care of business in the Big East, and Arizona State ran over, around, and through everybody to wrap up the top overall seed.

Who will be joining them? We have an idea of most of the field, but that part is easy. The more difficult task is sorting out this year's bubble teams.

Tournament Bubble Watch

Oregon State 19-12 (RPI 21)
Iowa 22-11 (RPI 32)
Kansas State 17-11 (RPI 35)
UNLV 22-11 (RPI 38)
West Virginia 21-12 (RPI 39)
Texas Tech 20-13 (RPI 44)
Southern Mississippi 19-11 (RPI 48)
Drake 23-7 (RPI 50)
Toledo 21-10 (RPI 52)
Ohio State 20-12 (RPI 55)

There are a number of high quality teams on the outside looking in. None maybe more baffling than Ohio State, who entered the season as one of the most talented teams in the country (93 OVR) but fell flat in the Big Ten. On the other end of the spectrum is Toledo, who has a tournament worthy squad but suffers from not having beaten anybody all season.

However, teams like UNLV and West Virginia will point to their recent, late season success as a reason to place them in the field, while Kansas State and Southern Mississippi will want the committee to look at their total body of work after some late blemishes to their resume. There are many worthy teams, but not everyone is going to make it. Maybe this season could renew efforts to increase the NCAA field after a few failed attempts in recent years.

Tournament Resume: A Closer Look

Kansas State did what it could with the schedule it had until the end of February. Maybe the committee will be forgiving of a late season injury to a key contributor, but part of the problem for the Wildcats is that their resume, while not having many holes, lacks a certain element of "pizazz." It doesn't really jump off the page.

Record: 17-11 (7-9 9th)
RPI: 35
Last 10: 4-6
Vs. Top 25: 2-3
Road/Neutral: 7-6
Streak: 5 Losses
RPI 1-50: 5-8
RPI 51-100: 3-3
RPI 101-200: 6-0
RPI 201+: 3-0
Good Wins: @ Texas (RPI 6), vs Colorado (RPI 25), @/vs Baylor (RPI 28)
Weak Wins: vs Houston (RPI 147), vs Michigan (RPI 153), vs UNC (RPI 123)
Worst Losses: @ Miami (RPI 76), @/vs Nebraska (RPI 56)
Projected Seed: #11 (Last Four In)

Do the Wildcats have a signature win? Check. Do the Wildcats lack any terrible losses? Check. Did the Wildcats perform admirably against top competition? Probably good enough. But given the crowding of the bubble this year, Kansas State's resume is severely hurt by its five straight losses to close the season. Yes, there is the Branduinn Gatling injury, but the drop in performance came at a very bad time and shows backwards momentum.

But look past the losses: what do the Wildcats have in the rest of their schedule? It is admirable to schedule a bunch of power conference opponents instead of small conference cupcakes, but Kansas State's out of conference success is misleading. Their 10-1 record with wins over UNC, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Rutgers does not resonate nearly as well in March when each marquee opponent finished at or near the bottom of their conference. So with Kansas State's non-conference slate hollow, the committee would likely focus on how they performed in the Big 12 -- and that's not really impressive either.

The Wildcats cannot control how other teams do against other opponents. But add that factor in with their fade down the stretch and it becomes clear why Kansas State sitting on the bubble today instead of looking at a 6, 7, or 8 seed.

[mpejkrm]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Hoping you can grab a bid man... ISU hit ya hard.

Also, go Pack! Nice job with the #1 seed boys

[msh555]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Good luck! I hope you get in.

[baccVols]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

i love your RPI



I SAY K.ST is IN!!!!!!!!!!!!

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Hoping you can grab a bid man... ISU hit ya hard.

Also, go Pack! Nice job with the #1 seed boys

They were #1 and National Champions last year. And they're stacked for years to come. Sidney Lowe...who'd have thunk?

Good luck! I hope you get in.

Thanks for the support.

i love your RPI



I SAY K.ST is IN!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the support as well. Lets see if the committee agrees.

[TheNumber35]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

I think K-State sneaks in as an 8 or 9 seed here. Too many quality wins and no bad losses this season equals a tournament bid for Coach West.

[MBFranchise]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

That RPI is solid. I've got K State in the field!

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

I think K-State sneaks in as an 8 or 9 seed here. Too many quality wins and no bad losses this season equals a tournament bid for Coach West.

Yeah, there's a lot to like about the resume. That's for sure. The question is whether "no bad losses" is enough in light of ending the game on a 5 game losing streak (remember, this game was made before the NCAA decided to stop factoring the tail end of the schedule as a selection mechanic)

That RPI is solid. I've got K State in the field!

Yeah, a 35 RPI is solid. But I can't help think what it would look like if I had been able to sneak in another win or two.

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Kansas State Hopeful for Tournament Bid

It has been a very long time since Kansas State made the NCAA Tournament. Banners still hang in Bramlage Coliseum from the glory days of yesteryear, but this is a new era. Fact is, many of the students attending Kansas State were not born the last time the Wildcats made the field.

But for the first time in a long time, there's hope. Sure, fans would like a sure thing but even being in the conversation means something. There are a number of Selection Sunday viewing parties planned around campus, but none will get more attention than in Bramlage Coliseum itself, with ESPN cameras present. It is invite only, but the team and staff will be there with their closest friends and family to see if if the Selection Committee is on their side.

Coach West had the following to say when asked about his squad's chances in the tournament, "I really hope we get in but it is out of our hands now. But if we make the field, I know our squad is good enough to make some noise. All we need is the opportunity."

Well, the Wildcats will find out soon enough if they will have that opportunity.

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

2018 Selection Sunday

Another year, another tournament. This one may be one of the most top heavy yet, but the beauty of March is that all the rankings and hoopla becomes irrelevant once everyone gets on the court. Still, someone's going to need a mighty big sling-shot to take down Goliath in 2018.

East Regional
#1 Arizona State vs Play-In (Georgia Southern and Coppin State)
#8 Wake Forest vs #9 Colorado
#5 Cincinnati vs #12 Murray State
#4 Villanova vs #13 Towson
#6 Iowa State vs #11 Drake
#3 Louisville vs #14 Army
#7 USC vs #10 UNLV
#2 Georgia Tech vs #15 Harvard

While there are a few surprises making the East Regional, there does not seem to be too many teams who can compete with Arizona State. Drake will have to be thrilled to make the field, and UNLV is probably already favored to win over USC. Otherwise, Georgia Tech is a weak #2. Louisville may be able to push through to the Sun Devils, but Herb Sendak's group is definitely the team to beat.

South Regional

#1 Connecticut vs #16 Manmouth

#8 Pittsburgh vs #9 Boston College

#5 Stanford vs #12 Wright State

#4 Utah State vs #13 San Diego State

#6 Drexel vs #11 Temple

#3 Utah vs #14 Lipscomb

#7 Saint Louis vs #10 Kentucky

#2 Illinois vs #15 TXAM-Corpus Christi

Of the four regions, this one probably has plenty of upset potential. Wright State has an experienced squads and is in great position to make an upset, and Lipscomb matches up very well with Utah's front court. However, if there is a sleeper team in this regional it is the Utah State Aggies. They have plenty of tournament experience and will not be intimidated by power conference foes. Still, like the other regionals, this one is Connecticut's to lose.

Midwest Regional

#1 Maryland vs #16 Illinois State

#8 Indiana vs #9 Clemson

#5 South Carolina vs #12 Rider

#4 Missouri vs #13 North Texas

#6 UCLA vs #11 Hartford

#3 Alabama vs #14 Portland

#7 UAB vs #10 West Virginia

#2 Syracuse vs #15 IUPUI

The Midwest has some intriguing match ups, but the most interesting one could happen in the second round. Clemson defeated the Maryland Terrapins by 20 points earlier this year, and if they can advance they could spring the upset. Meanwhile, Syracuse will be riding their stifling defense in hopes of overcoming the field, but they could have trouble against UCLA's fireworks. As for upset potential: there isn't a lot here. Rider has a strong squad, but probably not strong enough to defeat South Carolina.

West Regional

#1 NC State vs #16 Ark.-Pin Bluff

#8 San Francisco vs #9 Oregon State

#5 Arizona vs #12 Wisconsin

#4 Dayton vs #13 Charleston Southern

#6 Memphis vs #11 Miami (OH)

#3 Texas vs #14 Northern Arizona

#7 Baylor vs #10 Iowa

#2 Charlotte vs #15 Cal State Northridge

Finally, the West could be ripe with blood spilled by the lower seeds. Wisconsin is on a huge upswing after their Big 10 tournament victory and could be catching a swooning Arizona at the right time. Meanwhile, the Miami (OH) Redhawks are going to create some match up nightmares for Memphis. Even so, this regional will likely come down to NC State and Charlotte or Texas, and the Wolfpack are far superior to either squad.

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 7
Pac 10: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
B1G: 4
SEC: 3
MWC: 3
CUSA: 2
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
CAA: 2

Bubble Watch

Teams In:
Oregon State
Iowa
West Virginia
UNLV
Drake

Teams Out:
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Toledo
Southern Mississippi

And there is the field. Fans from Manhattan, KS to Hattiesburg, MS will be up in arms about being bypassed for Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference. Not to mention Ohio State, who is superior in talent to many of the higher seeded teams that made the field. But there is a lesson to be learned here: on court performance counts. Of the bubble teams that were left out, each of them can look to either the quality of opponents they played, or the quality of opponents they lost to, in order to see why they did not get an invite.

With the field set, it's time to start the show and get geared up for the first round. The stars will be out, there will be plenty of shining moments, and it's going to be another great tournament this year!

[TheNumber35]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

2018 Selection Sunday

Another year, another tournament. This one may be one of the most top heavy yet, but the beauty of March is that all the rankings and hoopla becomes irrelevant once everyone gets on the court. Still, someone's going to need a mighty big sling-shot to take down Goliath in 2018.

East Regional
#1 Arizona State vs Play-In (Georgia Southern and Coppin State)
#8 Wake Forest vs #9 Colorado
#5 Cincinnati vs #12 Murray State
#4 Villanova vs #13 Towson
#6 Iowa State vs #11 Drake
#3 Louisville vs #14 Army
#7 USC vs #10 UNLV
#2 Georgia Tech vs #15 Harvard

While there are a few surprises making the East Regional, there does not seem to be too many teams who can compete with Arizona State. Drake will have to be thrilled to make the field, and UNLV is probably already favored to win over USC. Otherwise, Georgia Tech is a weak #2. Louisville may be able to push through to the Sun Devils, but Herb Sendak's group is definitely the team to beat.

South Regional

#1 Connecticut vs #16 Manmouth

#8 Pittsburgh vs #9 Boston College

#5 Stanford vs #12 Wright State

#4 Utah State vs #13 San Diego State

#6 Drexel vs #11 Temple

#3 Utah vs #14 Lipscomb

#7 Saint Louis vs #10 Kentucky

#2 Illinois vs #15 TXAM-Corpus Christi

Of the four regions, this one probably has plenty of upset potential. Wright State has an experienced squads and is in great position to make an upset, and Lipscomb matches up very well with Utah's front court. However, if there is a sleeper team in this regional it is the Utah State Aggies. They have plenty of tournament experience and will not be intimidated by power conference foes. Still, like the other regionals, this one is Connecticut's to lose.

Midwest Regional

#1 Maryland vs #16 Illinois State

#8 Indiana vs #9 Clemson

#5 South Carolina vs #12 Rider

#4 Missouri vs #13 North Texas

#6 UCLA vs #11 Hartford

#3 Alabama vs #14 Portland

#7 UAB vs #10 West Virginia

#2 Syracuse vs #15 IUPUI

The Midwest has some intriguing match ups, but the most interesting one could happen in the second round. Clemson defeated the Maryland Terrapins by 20 points earlier this year, and if they can advance they could spring the upset. Meanwhile, Syracuse will be riding their stifling defense in hopes of overcoming the field, but they could have trouble against UCLA's fireworks. As for upset potential: there isn't a lot here. Rider has a strong squad, but probably not strong enough to defeat South Carolina.

West Regional

#1 NC State vs #16 Ark.-Pin Bluff

#8 San Francisco vs #9 Oregon State

#5 Arizona vs #12 Wisconsin

#4 Dayton vs #13 Charleston Southern

#6 Memphis vs #11 Miami (OH)

#3 Texas vs #14 Northern Arizona

#7 Baylor vs #10 Iowa

#2 Charlotte vs #15 Cal State Northridge

Finally, the West could be ripe with blood spilled by the lower seeds. Wisconsin is on a huge upswing after their Big 10 tournament victory and could be catching a swooning Arizona at the right time. Meanwhile, the Miami (OH) Redhawks are going to create some match up nightmares for Memphis. Even so, this regional will likely come down to NC State and Charlotte or Texas, and the Wolfpack are far superior to either squad.

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 7
Pac 10: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
B1G: 4
SEC: 3
MWC: 3
CUSA: 2
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
CAA: 2

Bubble Watch

Teams In:
Oregon State
Iowa
West Virginia
UNLV
Drake

Teams Out:
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Toledo
Southern Mississippi

And there is the field. Fans from Manhattan, KS to Hattiesburg, MS will be up in arms about being bypassed for Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference. Not to mention Ohio State, who is superior in talent to many of the higher seeded teams that made the field. But there is a lesson to be learned here: on court performance counts. Of the bubble teams that were left out, each of them can look to either the quality of opponents they played, or the quality of opponents they lost to, in order to see why they did not get an invite.

With the field set, it's time to start the show and get geared up for the first round. The stars will be out, there will be plenty of shining moments, and it's going to be another great tournament this year!

Drake over K-State? Man the selection committee just doesn't like the 5 game losing streak I suppose. Is it safe to assume K-State is NIT bound?

[mpejkrm]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Putting Drake in also interests me. The road win @ Texas was the big push for me, and I would have had you in over Drake.

[HarkTheSound]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Man, that's extremely disappointing...How you end the year is a strong factor when the committee makes their decision so I can't say I'm too surprised, but it still stings to get left out when a team like Drake gets in.

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

You all want to know about Drake? Want to see why so many people are hopping mad across the nation? I think you might be interested to know how they compare to Kansas State.

Drake Bulldogs Tournament Resume

Record: 23-7 (14-4 1st MVC)
RPI: 50
Conf. RPI Rank: 15
Last 10: 6-4
Vs. Top 25: 1-1
Road/Neutral: 11-5
Streak: 4 Losses
RPI 1-50: 0-2
RPI 51-100: 3-0
RPI 101-200: 12-4
RPI 201+: 8-1
Good Wins: @ Xavier (RPI 59), @ Mississippi State (RPI 71), @ Penn State (RPI 93)
Bad Losses: vs Creighton (RPI 207), @ Illinois State (RPI 195), Conf. Tourn. vs Northern Iowa (RPI 165)
Awarded Seed: #11

Interesting how similar of circumstances there are between Drake and Kansas State. The Bulldogs were flirting with a Top 25 ranking near the end of the season and were on many people's radar as a breakthrough team for the NCAAs. Maybe conventional wisdom prevailed in the committee room, but it is hard to ignore their season ending four game losing streak vs Illinois State, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Creighton. Their only conference loss that was not at the end of the season was to Witchita State -- who are always tough even in an off year like this year.

Although neither KSU or Drake can control what conference they are in (or in this day and age, can they?), another point of differentiation was how each team did out of conference. Drake not only played more road games, but had a much better road/neutral record. Also, their marquee non-conference wins came against teams in the RPI Top 100 (including ranked Xavier), and their Top 50 road losses were to Alabama and Air Force. For all intents and purposes, Drake tested itself with a tougher non-conference schedule than Kansas State, and that could have been a difference as well.

Do I disagree with the selection? Of course -- but I might be biased.

[waytofailself]

Re: The Accidental Career of Guy West (CH2k8)

Selection Sunday Aftermath

The air let out of Bralmage Coliseum as soon as the last of the West bracket was announced. A pallor fell over the Kansas State campus. This was supposed to be the Wildcat's year to make noise in March. Just like last year. Just like the year before. But missing the NCAA Tournament stings far worse when a team is so close and yet so far.

After the final selections were announced and after West spoke to his team, he was called to the Athletic Director's office. It had not been lost on Coach West that his current contract expires at the end of the season. And with no NCAA bid due to a huge backslide, this could be it for West at Kansas State.

West enters the Athletic Director's office with mixed emotions but not exactly sure what is in store.

AD: First off Guy, before we get started, I just wanted to thank you for all of the work you have put in this season.

West: You're welcome.

AD: You really have put everything you have into this job. You have worked hard to make this team your own and have made good efforts to reach out to the community as well. We have not had basketball athletes volunteer like this in my tenure here, and other student athletes are starting to follow suit. You've made some positive changes here at Kansas State.

West: It's a credit to the team -- they've really bought into it.

AD: But you started it. And that's part of what makes this meeting so hard. You know, I don't like having these kind of meetings.

West: If you don't mind me asking, what kind of meeting are we having?

AD: Well, I like to think of myself as a nice guy. It just gets me sometimes to have to just sit down and...

West: And what? We're grown men here. You can get to the point.

AD: Hrm. Okay. Always the direct one. That's part of the reason I hired you. Well, you've worked hard this year and kept your head down. But I'm not sure that hard work has been good enough. I mean, you hear all over the radio and internet and across campus and everyone is yelling "Drake" this and "Drake" that after the selection show. But that's today's noise. Soon people will have to pick up the pieces, look back at the season, and wonder "what if."

West: I think that's natural, especially the way we ended the season. I do take responsibility for how it ended.

AD: Good, and you should. One player does not make a team. Yet you could not adjust and could not just sit him. That was an opportunity to show what you could do with the bench -- to show how you can right the ship in face of peril. You didn't. You couldn't replace a freshman who was barely averaging double digits.

West: Well, while we're being so honest I'd like to talk about our meeting at the beginning of the year where you hoodwinked the schedule. We may not have won 10 games, but we would not only have our conference play to stand on come season's end.

AD: Thank you for your input, but you don't disagree with my assessment?

West: When anyone loses five games in a row, there's always room for second guessing and wondering what might have been.

AD: And I don't know if I want to find myself in a position of second guessing again. As you are probably aware, your contract is up.

West: Yes.

AD: And as much as I'd like to have the luxury of allowing this team to develop, you know how today's market is. They want results and they want results now. And despite all of the good things you've done with the program, and there are many, I need -- well, how do I put this -- I don't think talk is enough anymore. I need to see something that shows you have what it takes to take this program where I think it can go.

West: With all due respect, if there is one phrase that gets associated with KSU basketball this season on broadcasts or in the press it's "bright future."

AD: And a bright future is nice, but I didn't hire you because of promises of hope for the future. I brought you in because you won a National Championship.

West: Well, given enough time with recruiting and building our --

AD: Enough Guy. Just stop it. Don't you see? You're a "look down the road" kind of guy, and I'm in the here and now. And what I want you to do is show me that you are the person that will lead Kansas State to great things.

West: And how do you suggest that if I don't have a chance to develop the team I've built?

AD: It's actually very simple and straight forward. I got off the phone just before our meeting and we were the first non-AQ team invited to the National Invitational Tournament. Obviously, I accepted the invitation. This is it Guy. It's time for you to show me that you have what it takes. Today. Right now. They'll announce the whole field at 9 PM Eastern. Be ready to get to work.