Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

[T-Moar]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Open question, because I haven't been following college football for as long as many of you:

Have conference alignments always been this volatile? It seems like we have to deal with some combination of teams jumping ship every year now.

Every year? You really think it's that seldom?
More like every week.

[p_rushing]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

I mean, if we want to bring money into it, UVa has the 20th largest endowment of all high-level learning institutions in the country; a brand-new HUGE multipurpose arena (the John Paul Jones Arena), a solid and large college football stadium (Scott Stadium's capacity - 61,500 - is one of the largest in the ACC, equal to Soldier Field, and larger than University of Phoenix Stadium); the athletic department is in the process of building a $13M indoor practice facility for the football team; and UVa is one of the few athletic programs in the NCAA to turn a profit, and actually was the most profitable athletic program in the ACC during FY 2010-11. The state of football program at Virginia, though improving, simply does not matter as to their viability for inclusion in a new conference.

To reiterate, though I'm not worried about what will happen to Virginia, I'd rather have them in a viable ACC than elsewhere. I like the ACC.

UVA benefits from having FSU, UM, and Clem drive up the TV numbers. A lot of schools in the ACC are benefiting from those schools. Those schools though are losing money as they could be getting more somewhere else.

If those schools leave and UVA doesn't, UVA will lose any chance at making a profit and all those improvements may not happen if they don't have money.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

My entry into what's going on from here in Big XII Country, also on the OS Frontpage: http://www.operationsports.com/MMChr...ignment-story/

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

UVA benefits from having FSU, UM, and Clem drive up the TV numbers. A lot of schools in the ACC are benefiting from those schools. Those schools though are losing money as they could be getting more somewhere else.

If those schools leave and UVA doesn't, UVA will lose any chance at making a profit and all those improvements may not happen if they don't have money.

UVA would almost certainly land somewhere (B1G). I wouldn't be worried about them, they fit the B1G mold very well actually.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

I've heard from a few people that Georgia Tech to the Big 12 is getting to be a pretty serious possibility. I'm starting to think the ACC is going to get gutted like we thought the Big 12 would last year. Consolidation is coming.

Only question here is how many teams are coming. The key is what the SEC does. If the SEC petitions successfully for conference semi-finals for a 16 team conference, everyone who can will go to 16 immediately. In that scenario, SEC takes 2 ACC teams, Big XII takes 4-5, and the Big Ten takes 2-4 teams from the ACC/Big East.

Bare minimum, Clemson/Florida State are almost certainly coming to the Big XII.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Saw some talk about money......here's the numbers.

The ACC will only make $17 million a year per team by 2021.

Until then they'll make ~$12-14 million a year.

Compare that with the Big XII which will be making $20 million a year minimum until then and the SEC which will be $25+ million until then.

The discrepancy over a decade is incredibly difficult to keep up with. Most estimates I've seen have the Big XII making $23-$25 million a team with the right (ahem ACC Football powers) additions. Over the course of the six years it takes for the ACC to finally make their full amount, schools that jump will be $72 million richer minimum than they would be by staying put (not even counting their third tier money they will make outside of the Big XII's Tier 1/2 contracts, the ACC covers all three tiers).

For a school like Florida State, who wants to be a football power but who has to compete against SEC teams as neighbors, this is unmistakeably a big boost to the program's ability to keep up.

So just in case anyone is wondering WHY teams are leaving the ACC, that's why.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

The U is apparently considering the Big 12... Is the Big 12 really much better than the ACC?

Yes. In every way.

[TheShizNo1]

It's turned into a damn economics thread. The more numbers get posted, the more I get lost.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Welcome to big time college athletics, where the $tudent$$$ matter

A link that seems relevant: http://www.southparkstudios.com/clip...nt-ath-o-leets

[GeneralMike]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Saw some talk about money......here's the numbers.

The ACC will only make $17 million a year per team by 2021.

Until then they'll make ~$12-14 million a year.

Compare that with the Big XII which will be making $20 million a year minimum until then and the SEC which will be $25+ million until then.

Not necessarily. The Big 12's new contract averages out at $20 Million. No one knows how that contract breaks down. Same with any conference. There is a widening gap when you consider the tier 3 rights that the ACC gave up. I'm sure those basketball games schools like Duke or UNC could sell to a regional sports network are worth a couple million dollars a year. Even one football game for Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech is probably worth a couple million in revenue if sold as a PPV.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Not necessarily. The Big 12's new contract averages out at $20 Million. No one knows how that contract breaks down. Same with any conference. There is a widening gap when you consider the tier 3 rights that the ACC gave up. I'm sure those basketball games schools like Duke or UNC could sell to a regional sports network are worth a couple million dollars a year. Even one football game for Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech is probably worth a couple million in revenue if sold as a PPV.

The ACC didn't give up Tier 3 rights to schools. I think you have that backwards. The schools can't do that since they don't own their tier 3 rights.

[DonkeyJote]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Only question here is how many teams are coming. The key is what the SEC does. If the SEC petitions successfully for conference semi-finals for a 16 team conference, everyone who can will go to 16 immediately. In that scenario, SEC takes 2 ACC teams, Big XII takes 4-5, and the Big Ten takes 2-4 teams from the ACC/Big East.

Bare minimum, Clemson/Florida State are almost certainly coming to the Big XII.

If automatic bids to 16-team conferences happens, that almost forces Notre Dame to pick a conference doesn't it? And who does the Pac 12 end up with, since they pretty much already have all the really relevant programs, aside from Boise St, west of Texas.

[RaychelSnr]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

If automatic bids to 16-team conferences happens, that almost forces Notre Dame to pick a conference doesn't it? And who does the Pac 12 end up with, since they pretty much already have all the really relevant programs, aside from Boise St, west of Texas.

Pac 12 screwed themselves over in terms of adding value when the Presidents said "Thanks but no thanks" to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They have no one to add value unless they add someone even further east than the central time zone (since everyone who is relevant there is locked into TV contracts thanks to a grant of rights for almost a decade). Boise certainly doesn't add real value to the conference (and no chance they're going to get in regardless). For all intents and purposes, the Pac-12 might be the Pac-12 forever.

[DonkeyJote]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

Pac 12 screwed themselves over in terms of adding value when the Presidents said "Thanks but no thanks" to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They have no one to add value unless they add someone even further east than the central time zone (since everyone who is relevant there is locked into TV contracts thanks to a grant of rights for almost a decade). Boise certainly doesn't add real value to the conference (and no chance they're going to get in regardless). For all intents and purposes, the Pac-12 might be the Pac-12 forever.

If it takes 16 to get into a "playoff" though, don't they have to add teams anyway?

Personally, I think the automatic bids for a 16-team conference champion isn't going to happen, anyway. I think it will be a conference champion inside the top 6 gets an automatic berth, no matter the conference.

[GeneralMike]

Re: Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

The ACC didn't give up Tier 3 rights to schools. I think you have that backwards. The schools can't do that since they don't own their tier 3 rights.

Sorry, I guess I typed it wrong, but that was my point. ACC averages 17M for everything basically. Big 12 is averaging 20M and gets the extra tier 3 money. It doesn't matter too much what the year to year numbers are, but the averages do matter.