Conference Re-Alignment Thread Part Who Knows

[kodiak]

Whenever I start thinking about the superconferences, I can't help but start thinking that they will disband from the rest of the conferences and create their own division within the NCAA (the Super Conference Subdivision, or something). Then I think they'll create a 16 team playoff out of that.

I just don't see how people will be able to differentiate an 11-1 team from the BIG Ten, from an 11-1 team from the SEC, from an 11-1 team from the PAC-16, etc. when the conferences are going to be loaded with 16 schools each.


Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. I don't really understand the meat of how this stuff works.

I agree to an extent. I do think it will eventually lead to some new athletic assoc and no longer be a part of the NCAA. With the tv deals that each super conf will get, they will not want to share that money with the NCAA either. They will want it to stay amongst the big boys.

My hope was the same as yours when the first changes started with CU, Nebraska, Utah, etc. But the more and more I listen to the presidents, I'm very pessimistic. My lone hope is that a financial deal comes along for a playoff that is just too good to pass up once this new era of super conf begins.


Sent from.....

[Ziza9Noles94]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

Starting to hear more and more about Oklahoma and Oklahoma State going to the Pac 12. Could this be the start of the superconference free-for-all?

God I hope not.

[Bondgirl0072]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

Let the craziness begin.

[choadler]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

No, I'd say VaTech or TCU would fit the new market scenario best.

TCU is not going to get into the SEC. TCU does not drive ratings in Texas.

[choadler]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

I don't think the SEC will take Missouri and risk being sued over the destruction of a conference. My guess is that they will take a team from the ACC to get to 14. Then they will pick up 2 more teams when other teams start to bolt (Big 12 falls apart, thus picking up Mizzou or Big East starts disbanding so they poach another team from the ACC).

I don't think OU wants to be separated from Texas so I think OU would pursue PAC 12 over SEC. I don't think Texas wants anything to do with the SEC.

Pitt and Louisville are options for Texas to bring over to the Big 12 because something is in the works with ND. It probably isn't ND joining the Big 12, but when the dominos fall and the Big 12 breaks up and super conferences form, I would not be surprised to see some type of national conference with OU, ND, Texas and BYU. taking teams out the Big East would keep some of ND traditional rivals. Additionally with OU pursuing its own network, Texas already having it, ND probably wanting its own TV deal, and BYU having its own network, their goals align with each other. There will be enough schools that will want in on this conference and the money it will generate, such as Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Texas Tech, Okie Lite.

[GAMEC0CK2002]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

I don't think the SEC will take Missouri and risk being sued over the destruction of a conference. My guess is that they will take a team from the ACC to get to 14. Then they will pick up 2 more teams when other teams start to bolt (Big 12 falls apart, thus picking up Mizzou or Big East starts disbanding so they poach another team from the ACC).

I don't think OU wants to be separated from Texas so I think OU would pursue PAC 12 over SEC. I don't think Texas wants anything to do with the SEC.

Pitt and Louisville are options for Texas to bring over to the Big 12 because something is in the works with ND. It probably isn't ND joining the Big 12, but when the dominos fall and the Big 12 breaks up and super conferences form, I would not be surprised to see some type of national conference with OU, ND, Texas and BYU. taking teams out the Big East would keep some of ND traditional rivals. Additionally with OU pursuing its own network, Texas already having it, ND probably wanting its own TV deal, and BYU having its own network, their goals align with each other. There will be enough schools that will want in on this conference and the money it will generate, such as Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Texas Tech, Okie Lite.

SEC can't be sued if a team voluntarily leaves it's conference and then applies for another conference. Might be different if the SEC was calling and/or inviting while it was still affiliated with another conference.

That's why it's taking this long for A&M to eventually get in the SEC.

[choadler]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

SEC can't be sued if a team voluntarily leaves it's conference and then applies for another conference. Might be different if the SEC was calling and/or inviting while it was still affiliated with another conference.

That's why it's taking this long for A&M to eventually get in the SEC.

Well that was my point. If the Big 12 felt like the SEC wass initiating pulling these schools away, they could be setting themselvs up for a lawsuit.

[doom41]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

I don't think the SEC will take Missouri and risk being sued over the destruction of a conference. My guess is that they will take a team from the ACC to get to 14. Then they will pick up 2 more teams when other teams start to bolt (Big 12 falls apart, thus picking up Mizzou or Big East starts disbanding so they poach another team from the ACC).

I don't think OU wants to be separated from Texas so I think OU would pursue PAC 12 over SEC. I don't think Texas wants anything to do with the SEC.

Pitt and Louisville are options for Texas to bring over to the Big 12 because something is in the works with ND. It probably isn't ND joining the Big 12, but when the dominos fall and the Big 12 breaks up and super conferences form, I would not be surprised to see some type of national conference with OU, ND, Texas and BYU. taking teams out the Big East would keep some of ND traditional rivals. Additionally with OU pursuing its own network, Texas already having it, ND probably wanting its own TV deal, and BYU having its own network, their goals align with each other. There will be enough schools that will want in on this conference and the money it will generate, such as Pitt, Louisville, Boston College, Texas Tech, Okie Lite.

The SEC risks getting sued no matter who they go after, as long as that school is already in a conference. The same goes for the Big 12-3. The only schools that can be approached w/o the risk of a lawsuit are independents: ND(not happening), BYU (possible). Any other school would have to make the first move for the SEC or Big 12-3 not to get sued.

The Big 12-3 may be desperate enough to risk a lawsuit, the SEC is not. They will wait to see what happens with the Big 12-3, If the PAC and/or B1G gets involved, and then make their move.

Also, you're making too much of the school networks. ND already has it's own TV deal with NBC. Until that deal expires, a ND network that can't show any football games doesn't make any sense. The LHN launched with no major carriers, and the only major carrier showing the UT-Rice game is in Dallas. There are no major carriers in Houston, San Antonio, and as of right now UT's home city of Austin does not even have a major carrier. The vast majority of UT fans in TX can not even watch the first game of the season on the LHN. If a carrier didn't pick it up in time for the first game why would they bother picking it up for only one more game this year? I think a lot of schools are watching how the LHN has not taken off as expected (months ago Dodds said they would have 7 million subscribers by the end of August. It is Sept 1st and there are approx 20,000 subscribers to the LHN), and are rethinking any network plans.

[AuburnAlumni]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

The more you think about it. The more you look at the "shopping list" that Mike Slive would want in a 14th team, and a pick that would give the least resistance from existing SEC members.... Virginia Tech jumps out.

I expect the SEC to put the full court press on Virginia Tech over the next several months in an attempt to court them. It makes way too much sense not to.

*cue the "Va Tech would never listen" folks*

[The GIGGAS]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

*cue the "Va Tech would never listen" folks*

I'm guessing you're referring to me. Now, I see it both ways. I'd love VT to play in the SEC for football. I want to be the best by beating the best. Beating Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, etc, doesn't make VT the best.

But on the other hand, VT fits in the ACC far better than I believe they would in the SEC in every other regard. You're probably going to lose some revenue in basketball, and some non-revenue sports might have to scramble to find affiliations and transportation.

That being said, the one thing I see that really stands in the way is academics. To be associated with Duke University, the University of Virginia, UNC-Chapel Hill, Wake Forest is a huge boon to the academic side of Virginia Tech.

Speaking as President Steger (not AD Jim Weaver), if this was a football-only move, I would fall all over myself accepting. As a total move, I don't think Tech goes.

Of course, who the **** knows? I never expected TAMU to leave the Big 12.

[AuburnAlumni]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

The academics thing is so overblown its silly. The SEC isn't a bunch of junior colleges academically.

That being said, it's not about academics. It's about $$$. And in that regard, Football is the end all be all in revenue production for a university. The SEC and it's "High Rent District" image nationally will definitely lend itself the Hokies' ears perking up if Slive comes calling. That's my opinion.

[tHurley2010]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

AA I'm with you, I think it's going to be Virginia Tech. And so far, we're batting 1.000

[The GIGGAS]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

That being said, it's not about academics. It's about $$$. And in that regard, Football is the end all be all in revenue production for a university.

Based on the FY2009 financial report for the university, VT had revenues of 275.1 million dollars on student tuition and fees, and 225.2 million dollars of grants/contracts. I believe Tech had about 60 million in football revenue (but I couldn't find 2009 numbers, I believe that's 2008).

Looking at the rankings for 2009-2010 for the SEC, the top earner was Alabama, making 129.3 million.

So while you're right in that there is a lot of money coming in through football, it's certainly not the main moneymaker for VT, and if it's the main moneymaker for 'Bama, I'd be surprised.

FY2009: http://www.president.vt.edu/annual-reports/index.html

SEC Revenue: http://www.ensbsn.com/2010/11/sec-re...money-machine/

[GAMEC0CK2002]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

AA I'm with you, I think it's going to be Virginia Tech. And so far, we're batting 1.000

VT makes the most sense but doubt it'll happen. too much VA politics. i'd say somewhere between a 10-15% chance.

[choadler]

Re: A&M to the SEC starting to blow up again on Twitter

The SEC risks getting sued no matter who they go after, as long as that school is already in a conference. The same goes for the Big 12-3. The only schools that can be approached w/o the risk of a lawsuit are independents: ND(not happening), BYU (possible). Any other school would have to make the first move for the SEC or Big 12-3 not to get sued.

The Big 12-3 may be desperate enough to risk a lawsuit, the SEC is not. They will wait to see what happens with the Big 12-3, If the PAC and/or B1G gets involved, and then make their move.

Also, you're making too much of the school networks. ND already has it's own TV deal with NBC. Until that deal expires, a ND network that can't show any football games doesn't make any sense. The LHN launched with no major carriers, and the only major carrier showing the UT-Rice game is in Dallas. There are no major carriers in Houston, San Antonio, and as of right now UT's home city of Austin does not even have a major carrier. The vast majority of UT fans in TX can not even watch the first game of the season on the LHN. If a carrier didn't pick it up in time for the first game why would they bother picking it up for only one more game this year? I think a lot of schools are watching how the LHN has not taken off as expected (months ago Dodds said they would have 7 million subscribers by the end of August. It is Sept 1st and there are approx 20,000 subscribers to the LHN), and are rethinking any network plans.

ND's television contract is up in 2014 or 2015, they will want to renegotiate another deal. SEC, Big 10, PAC 10 will not allow that. Eventually ND's hand will be forced if Super Conferences happen. Nothing may come of it, but you never know. Is it a coincidence that Texas suddenly has Notre Dame scheduled and BYU scheduled for home and home games? I still think it is doubtful, but you never know what is going to happen.

Television negotiations always go like this. NFL Network anyone? Eventually, the LHN will be picked up. ESPN is not going to let $300M go down the drain because carriers are balking at it. Surely there is going ot be alot of anxiety over the fact that no one has picked it up, but that is how negotiations go. All it will take is for one national carrier to cave and then it is on like donkey kong.

Incidentally, Texas A&M had a chance to go in on this and decided that it couldn't work. Then they run off crying when they see that Texas got the $300M.