NFL Off Topic

[Bellsprout]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Since we're kind of over it and I had to go to work so I couldn't make people hate me anymore, I guess it's just part of the culture that you had to be a part of to understand. That whole pissing on someone in a shower? It happens. It happened whenever I was in high school. There was one rule, if you physically touched the person who was pissing on you, everyone that wanted to got to piss on you as punishment.

Our quarterback **** in a milk carton and put it in our starting wide receivers locker.

It's just the type of **** that happens with football players.

Is it ****ed up? Absolutely. But it's a part of the culture and everyone that's a part of the culture understands that. Did I ever take part of the whole pissing thing? No, I have a pinch of morals in me.

This is just one of those things that you have to say "You have to be a part of it to understand it".

Wow.

Okay, I'm just letting this line of discussion go. I'm done. Because I can't say anything about that that isn't mean.

[JazzMan]

Re: NFL Off Topic

All I know, is that **** never happened at my high school when I played football.

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[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Since we're kind of over it and I had to go to work so I couldn't make people hate me anymore, I guess it's just part of the culture that you had to be a part of to understand. That whole pissing on someone in a shower? It happens. It happened whenever I was in high school. There was one rule, if you physically touched the person who was pissing on you, everyone that wanted to got to piss on you as punishment.

Our quarterback **** in a milk carton and put it in our starting wide receivers locker.

It's just the type of **** that happens with football players.

Is it ****ed up? Absolutely. But it's a part of the culture and everyone that's a part of the culture understands that. Did I ever take part of the whole pissing thing? No, I have a pinch of morals in me.

This is just one of those things that you have to say "You have to be a part of it to understand it".

Yikes. This makes me happy I didn't play football past middle school. The whole culture seems to be ridiculous and archaic.

[TheMatrix31]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Isn't there a thread for this ****?

[bigbob]

Re: NFL Off Topic

It's probably done and over with now, so I think we're good.

[TracerBullet]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Just gonna leave this here:

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[jmillhimes]

Re: NFL Off Topic

so they have already dropped an nfl draft projection...These things seem to get earlier and earlier every year

1)1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater

2)2. Minnesota Vikings
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota

3)Atlanta Falcons
South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney

4)4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

5)5. Houston Texans
Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

6)6. St. Louis Rams (pick traded from Washington Redskins)
UCLA LB Anthony Barr

7)7. Tennessee Titans
Fresno State QB Derek Carr

8)8. Oakland Raiders
Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

9)9. New York Giants
Alabama LB C.J. Mosley

10)10. St. Louis Rams
Michigan OT Taylor Lewan

11)11. Baltimore Ravens
Texas A&M WR Mike Evans


Yeah, its to early for this but its still interesting to watch it develop. To me Mike Evans is going to go higher

[SPTO]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Bigbob makes me glad I never had the body type to be a football player.....

Anywho that Channing Crowder revelation was definitely TMI there. At least NFL Films Presents redeemed itself with a story on "Dr. Z" Paul Zimmerman. Let's just say it got a little dusty while I watched it.

[wwharton]

Re: NFL Off Topic

This definitely isn't over with. Once the next bit of news comes across the crawler the discussion will peak back up again.

So given that, please keep it in the Martin/Incognito thread so we can keep this thread clean (goes for me too). Thanks.

[Steven78]

Re: NFL Off Topic

I don’t know what is more mind-numbingly awful. Mike Smith opting to kick a field goal down by four points with 2:24 left in a game, or the almost universal praise after the game that this was the right decision.
I can go about explaining it any number of ways, but this was a dreadful decision. Here is Mike Smith:

“There’s not a whole lot of fourth and 14′s. We had I believe it was around 2 minutes, 28 seconds, so we had a timeout before the two minute, use the two minute as a timeout, we were going to have an opportunity to get the ball back with the offense, only having to kick a field goal to win. Matt Bryant has kicked a lot of clutch field goals for us, and giving us an opportunity.”

The play was a 4th and 15. There have been 306 attempts on fourth down of between 13 and 17 yards going back to 1999. It’s not an insignificant number. This isn’t a rare case where teams never go for it in this situation at the end of the game. This would be the exact kind of situation where having someone with a sense of actual results in other games would help in decision making.

The NFL Network analysts, most of whom I believe were once competitors who must have had great belief in themselves, acted like this was an impossible feat. God forbid that a football team ever pick up 15 yards on a play by means of this forward pass.

Teams have converted 20.3% of fourth down attempts of between 13 and 17 yards (62 of 306). Let’s just call it 20%. Does that change your view of the call?

Here’s another number to compare it to: 24.8%

That’s the percentage of time that New Orleans has a first down with the ball, and fails to pick up another one. (via Football Outsiders Drive Stats)

Those numbers aren’t that different, but one is viewed as an impossibility, while the other is just glossed over and vastly overestimated. The payoffs, of course, are much different. Going for it and converting results in an outright touchdown sometimes (a quarter of all those long fourth down conversions actually scored on that play). Even when it doesn’t you are inside the red zone with a first down, and a favorite to score a touchdown with plenty of time to call any play.

Using the win probability estimator at Advanced NFL Stats, I estimate the chances of Atlanta winning based on choosing the long field goal at 9.8% (which accounts for the chances of a miss) and the odds of winning based on going for it at 15.7%.

That is a massive drop. It’s a fascinating decision because it combined a bunch of coaching logical fallacies into one giant crapola soup. Those include:

• SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE: Vastly underestimating the actual chances of converting a fourth down, even a long one;
• THE POINTS DON’T ALWAYS GET TAKEN: Overconfidence in the concept of field goal range and the likelihood of making a kick;
• ALL WE NEED IS A STOP: Coaches seem to make these decisions with the assumption that the stop is likely. Just look at Smith’s quote;
• THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR IS MASSIVE: Coaches overestimate the relative value of being down 1 versus 4, compared to outright having the lead versus still trailing. In reality, the difference between 1 and 4 is not nearly as great as having the lead.

Add all that up, and you get a coach that gives away a chance to take a lead, and opts to try to stay close and hope and pray that a bunch of other stuff goes right.

The Falcons missed the 52-yard field goal and lost.

http://thebiglead.com/2013/11/22/mike-smith-doesnt-understand-math-which-is-why-the-falcons-attempted-a-field-goal-down-4-late-in-the-game/

[Steven78]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Just wanted to let you guys know today marks the one year anniversary of the infamous "butt fumble."

Where were you? What were you doing?

[ImTellinTim]

Re: NFL Off Topic

I still can't believe that he thought giving up possession of the ball voluntarily that late in the game without trying for the lead was a good idea.

[coogrfan]

Re: NFL Off Topic

I don’t know what is more mind-numbingly awful. Mike Smith opting to kick a field goal down by four points with 2:24 left in a game, or the almost universal praise after the game that this was the right decision.
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I was about to post a lengthy response to this article explaning why imho the author's entire premise is badly flawed, when I happened to scroll down to the comments and saw that someone had already done a better job of pointing this out with 50 words than I could with 500. Take it away, "Darrell":

Why in the hell would Smith care what the percentages of success in the NFL are on a 4th and 14. He isn't coaching a team called the NFL, he's coaching a team called the Falcons. What are the chances of him getting a first down from that distance behind that offensive line with the way they performed in that game?
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[Steven78]

Re: NFL Off Topic

I was about to post a lengthy response to this article explaning why imho the author's entire premise is badly flawed, when I happened to scroll down to the comments and saw that someone had already done a better job of pointing this out with 50 words than I could with 500. Take it away, "Darrell":

Why in the hell would Smith care what the percentages of success in the NFL are on a 4th and 14. He isn't coaching a team called the NFL, he's coaching a team called the Falcons. What are the chances of him getting a first down from that distance behind that offensive line with the way they performed in that game?
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Because taking the field goal there is mind numbingly dumb. There's no way to put it, it was a horrible decision.

They had a better chance of getting that 4th and 15 then making a FG, getting a stop, and then moving into FG range again with their horrible offensive line play all within two and a half minutes.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: NFL Off Topic

Man I love the Armchair/Monday Morning QBs/Coaches/GMs.