NFL Off Topic

[Bellsprout]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Why go for it right away, though? You still have to go for two, so why go for it right away?

I'd much rather keep it a one possession game at all costs, then take my chances at the end of the game on the two point conversion. If I have to scramble and get the ball back twice, I may run out of time and never see the ball that second time.

[Boltman]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

If you read the link completely you'll see your points being addressed.

[kingkilla56]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Miss 2 early you have the rest of game to make up for it
Miss 2 at end of game, you lose

I understand the argument. But I think it really depends on how much time is left on the clock.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

I don't really care what his argument is

Welp, there you have it.

I appreciate your open-mindedness to new ideas.

I'd much rather know early that I only have to get the ball back once and score than have to stop them, get it back, score, stop them again, then kick a field goal.

Again, if you actually followed the link, you would see that he addressed this point.

You still have to make the 2 point conversion. Delaying the decision doesn't change that fact one bit.

I now anticipate that you're going to throw a bunch of numbers at me because to you sports is like a chemistry class. Know that I won't read those numbers.

Know that this is extent of the argument:

The basic argument is that it doesn't matter when you go for 2, you will still have to go for 2. So why not go for it as soon as possible.

And it makes sense to go for it as soon as possible since forcing the early decision gives you more information. It allows you to make more educated decisions on using timeouts, going for it on 4th down, etc.

The information advantage is exactly why college teams opt to play defense first in overtime when they win the coin toss.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Miss 2 early you have the rest of game to make up for it
Miss 2 at end of game, you lose.

Exactly.

The Packers/49ers game a few weeks ago is a perfect example of this. The Packers scored with 6 minutes left, kicked off, and forced a SF punt with about 4 minutes left. The Packers got the ball back and it took them 3+ minutes just to get the ball a little past midfield. Even if they scored, the two-point conversion would have essentially been a do-or-die play since there would have been a few seconds on the clock. Now imagine if the Packers went for the 2 point conversion, failed, and were down 9 points. Are they taking 3+ minutes to move the ball 35 yards? Probably not.

Keep in mind that an 8 point game isn't a one possession game. It's only a one possession game if you make the two point conversion. Delaying the decision until the last possible moment only screws you over in the end if you miss.

EDIT: And I think there's something to be said about attempting the 2 point conversion earlier when there's less pressure. Probably a minor factor in favor of the early 2 pointer, but it's still something to think about.

[Bellsprout]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Here's how I see it. If I miss that two pointer to start, I now need two defensive stops.

That could be as many as 7 or 8 minutes off the clock, plus whatever it takes for me to drive down and get my first score, be it field goal or touchdown.

It's the fourth quarter, I don't have time for that. My way guarantees me that I'll have time to give myself a chance. And that's why I think it's the right way to do it, because I think more often than not your way gets you a loss either by time running out or the opposing team scoring again on one of their two possessions.

EDIT: This is all assuming you miss the two pointer early. If you don't, you obviously look like a genius.

[Jr.]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

And that's why I think it's the right way to do it, because I think more often than not your way gets you a loss either by time running out or the opposing team scoring again on one of their two possessions.

Wait, why would going for 2 earlier rather than later make it more likely for the other team to run out the clock or score on the next possession? The other team gets the ball back either way with the same amount of time on the game clock.

Here's how I see it. If I miss that two pointer to start, I now need two defensive stops.

That could be as many as 7 or 8 minutes off the clock, plus whatever it takes for me to drive down and get my first score, be it field goal or touchdown.

And missing the 2 point conversion your way ensures that you lose. At least if you miss it early, you have a chance to make up for it. You wouldn't rather have to get 2 defensive stops over not having a chance to make up for missing it?

[Bellsprout]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Wait, why would going for 2 earlier rather than later make it more likely for the other team to run out the clock or score on the next possession? The other team gets the ball back either way with the same amount of time on the game clock.

Because if I go for it early and miss, I have to stop them, get the ball back, score, then stop them again, and score.

If I kick the extra point I only have to stop them once.

And missing the 2 point conversion your way ensures that you lose. At least if you miss it early, you have a chance to make up for it. You wouldn't rather have to get 2 defensive stops over not having a chance to make up for missing it?

Yes, I'll take my chances gaining two yards over having to get an extra defensive stop and then drive for a field goal.

[ubernoob]

Yes, I'll take my chances gaining two yards over getting two defensive stops.

The Saints probably liked their chances of gaining a yard to score in the 2011 season opener as well.

I'm firmly in the go for 2 early picture.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

[Bellsprout]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

That doesn't make sense, though. Even if I get the ball back at the end of the game after missing the two pointer earlier, I now have to drive to get a field goal.

I have to get, like, 45 yards instead of 2 now. Granted I have more chances to do it (IF the time remaining will allow me to use those chances, and that's a big if), but if you don't think your offense can gain 2 yards when you need it the most, your team has issues.

[Jr.]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Because if I go for it early and miss, I have to stop them, get the ball back, score, then stop them again, and score.

If I kick the extra point I only have to stop them once.

So you're making all of your decisions on the assumption that you will miss the 2 point conversion every time when you try it to make it a 1 possession game rather than waiting to try it when it will tie the game?

Yes, I'll take my chances gaining two yards over getting two defensive stops.

It's 2 yards every time you try. Doesn't matter what the situation is.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

Because if I go for it early and miss, I have to stop them, get the ball back, score, then stop them again, and score.

If I kick the extra point I only have to stop them once.

...and then you have to drive down the field and score a touchdown...and make the 2 point conversion.

If you go for it late and miss, you're done. At least for the "down 9 points scenario", you have the contingency plan that you just laid out. If there's like 5 seconds left in the game and you miss the 2 point conversion, the game is over.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

So you're making all of your decisions on the assumption that you will miss the 2 point conversion every time when you try it to make it a 1 possession game rather than waiting to try it when it will tie the game?

This.

He's pointing out the worst-case scenario for one option while ignoring it for the other (which is, again, game over for the go-for-2 late option).

[JBH3]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

So NFL AM said a replacemet ref told Lesean McCoy to have a big day for his fantasy team...lol...fail.

[RJTurneR]

Re: NFL Off Topic 2012

So NFL AM said a replacemet ref told Lesean McCoy to have a big day for his fantasy team...lol...fail.

Now I'm worried....