CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[SmashMan]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Is this forum rolling with the notion that asymptomatic people are not contagious? That seems odd.

There have been...what, two or three people who have commented on this specific point? It’s not “the forum” rolling with anything. Settle down.

That is what the CDC is saying. I'm not sure what the truth is as 1st they said those were the potential super spreaders but now they are saying they can't really spread it.

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I’m not sure they’re saying that asymptomatic aren’t contagious, (The CDC page linked on the last page still says “It is important to realize that you can be infected and spread the virus but feel well and have no symptoms.”) just a revision that testing isn’t necessarily recommended if you have no symptoms and haven’t been in contact with someone who has it.

[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the idea is that they are way way way less contagious than symptomatic infections, even less so than originally assumed. That's based on contact tracing research by the WHO/CDC/etc. Beyond just the fact that they are by default less likely to cough or spread it as obviously.

[canes21]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

The board definitely isn't. Myself, a couple of others, the WHO, and the CDC all are in agreement that asymptomatic carriers are significantly less likely to spread the virus. Like the WHO said back when they first stated their opinion in early June, asymptomatic people and pre-symptomatic are different and the truly asymptomatic are not spreading the virus near as much as those with symptoms.

[bigfnjoe96]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Took a picture of this slide last week during a Covid update in NYC. Interesting info following the last couple of post

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[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Took a picture of this slide last week during a Covid update in NYC. Interesting info following the last couple of post

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That's a huge % range for asymptomatic, but they are saying what everyone is saying. The issue is determining if someone is asymptomatic or if they just aren't showing symptoms yet.

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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I'd be happy to introduce my friends mom to everyone who is 91 years old with dementia in a nursing home who has tested twice positive and is asymptomatic.

Of course, that is dripping with sarcasm because they are in a Covid unit in a locked down nursing home with no family or regular visitors.

She is in a big room and the nurse only comes in when necessary.

91 years is a long life.

Now, we wait.

[TheShizNo1]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Started orientation today.... kids with last names A-D.....

Zero social distancing in the hall as kids went from class to class. Zero social distancing as we helped kids find rooms as we looked over their schedules with them. Kids pulling their mask down as they greeted each other (can't blame them; I would've did the same at their age). Kids joining classes with masks on but under their nose. Had another staff member introduce herself to me with her mask under her nose.

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[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

We have PD all week and our first day is next Monday. There are going to be a number of restrictions in place:

-class sizes of no more than 15...or for the grades they couldn’t pull this off utilizing cafeteria and I think the gym for classes. They’ve managed this because about 1/5 of the kids chose distance learning. If a bunch of these kids start coming back this plan is gonna kind of fall apart.
-kids stay in one room all day with the same kids and the teachers switch classrooms for each period instead. No lockers or anything kids come in go to home room and stay there all day. Lunch is brought to them by the cafeteria workers and they eat in class.
-Supposedly arrival and dismissal is going to be extremely staggered and drawn out. It’s going to be very disruptive to the first and last periods of the day but I’m glad they’re doing it
-masks all day except while they’re eating breakfast, lunch, and we’re supposed to take them outside for 2 15 minute mask breaks

So we’ll see. I truly have no clue or expectations how this is gonna go


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Our son is in the last year at the Univ of MN.

Initially, time was to be spent in classes and virtual.

The first two weeks are all now virtual and decisions will be made during that time frame. Our son feels that the whole first semester will be virtual because of other colleges contacting the virus and they were to go virtual by Thanksgiving and go home the 21st of December.

[Jr.]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Started orientation today.... kids with last names A-D.....

Zero social distancing in the hall as kids went from class to class. Zero social distancing as we helped kids find rooms as we looked over their schedules with them. Kids pulling their mask down as they greeted each other (can't blame them; I would've did the same at their age). Kids joining classes with masks on but under their nose. Had another staff member introduce herself to me with her mask under her nose.

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I went to school today as one of my 2 mandatory on campus days.. walk in and our front desk person is training someone with her mask under her nose. Walking in after me, our Dean of Students (discipline) comes in with his mask under his nose.

Thank you 8 lb 12 oz baby Jesus we went remote

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

WHO official walks back statement that asymptomatic transmission is 'very rare'

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO infectious disease epidemiologist, said there had been "misunderstandings" about her comments made on Monday.

In a Facebook Live video, Van Kerkhove said asymptomatic people can in fact spread the virus, though the degree to which they can is unknown.

"We do know that some people who are asymptomatic or some people who don't have symptoms can transmit the virus on," she said. "What we need to better understand is how many people in the population don't have symptoms and, separately, how many of those individuals go on to transmit to others."

She said she was referring to two or three studies when she made her statement on Monday.

"In that I used the phrase 'very rare,' and I think that's a misunderstanding to state that asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare," she said. "What I was referring to is a subset of studies."

Some modeling groups estimate about 40 percent of virus transmission may be due to asymptomatic people, she said. Van Kerkhove did not include that figure on Monday but wanted to make sure she included it in her clarification.

Experts and members of the public, like Andy Slavitt, former health official under the Obama administration, voiced frustrations at the miscommunication over social media.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article

Modeling Evidence
Two studies used models to estimate the serial interval (time between symptom onset in a primary patient and the secondary patient) (29,30) (Table 3). They estimated the serial interval of COVID-19 to be 4 days, which is shorter than the estimated median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5 days (31). One report suggested that up to 13% of infections may be transmitted during the presymptomatic period of illness (29). These studies relied on reports of primary and secondary cases and may be limited by recall bias; secondary patients are more likely to remember proximal exposures, biasing results toward a shorter serial interval.

Two models attempted to estimate the number of infections caused by asymptomatic, presymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic infected persons (30,32). These models varied widely; 1 model suggested that up to half of infections were transmitted from infected persons who were presymptomatic (33), and another suggested that up to four fifths of infections were transmitted by persons with no symptoms or mild symptoms (32). Both models suggested that a large number of persons with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections were not detected by the health system and that these persons meaningfully contributed to ongoing community transmission (32,33). Although models are highly dependent on the assumptions built into them, these models suggest that the speed and extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission cannot be accounted for solely by transmission from symptomatic persons.

Each of the epidemiologic, virologic, and modeling studies described has limitations. However, in the aggregate, these diverse studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by persons with presymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, which may meaningfully contribute to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic. This literature summation was conducted to support changes in CDC recommendations to reduce the risk for asymptomatic transmission and was not a systematic review. These conclusions are drawn from the literature available at the time and may change, given the rapidly evolving nature of the evidence base for asymptomatic transmission.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

The asymptomatic stuff seems to be spreading due to people picking up the original story without realizing it was debunked a day later.

[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

It was not debunked. The doctor said studies showed that asymptomatic spread was very rare, people pushed back because they didn't like how she worded it, then she clarified that it was based on studies, and there were other ones that showed different. Saying that asymptomatic spread has been shown to be rare is not the same as saying that asymptomatics for sure can't spread it. How about we just look at every study for what it is. Don't throw out the ones we don't like.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

It was not debunked. The doctor said studies showed that asymptomatic spread was very rare, people pushed back because they didn't like how she worded it, then she clarified that it was based on studies, and there were other ones that showed different. Saying that asymptomatic spread has been shown to be rare is not the same as saying that asymptomatics for sure can't spread it. How about we just look at every study for what it is. Don't throw out the ones we don't like.

Is that the way it is?

Very rare to 40% is a huge leap.

So, let's jump on the hydroxychlorquine bandwagon where a few studies showed some positive results and hasn't yet been endorsed by FDA, WHO and CDC.