Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

[PFellah]

November 2018: Around The League

The Atlantic goes from a 2-way to a 3-way tie at the top, as Boston announces its presence. The Pens slump a little bit in the Metro, allowing Columbus to pull into the lead. Chicago and Nashville duke it out atop the Central, while the Pacific is a pretty tight Top 4. Ottawa, Philly, and Minnesota sit at the bottom below the 20-point mark, so time to cut loose some overtime checks for the scouting department getting ready for a high pick.

STANDINGS


Other than the leaders, the most interesting number on there? Vancouver with seven overtime losses. How does that happen?

LEAGUE LEADERS


Big month for Taylor Hall, taking over the goal scoring lead, and Washington's got an impressive 1-2 punch with Ovi and Kuznetsov, despite their spot toward the bottom of the standings. (They actually sit 1 and 2 in points, which you could see more easily if I had sorted it.) For the 'Birds, Kesler sits outside the leaderboard, but not by a lot (12 goals, 24 points).

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev continues to lead the way, and has even widened his scoring lead as Buffalo's Mittelstadt took a step back after a hot start.

Logistically, I started charting draft position (for the moment, look at ZAR lighting it up as an undrafted rookie! Then again... 7 points? Check back in a month or two) and also put down a few notable goalies. But all of the mentioned guys are playing in relief of injured starters -- Fleury is already back in Vegas, and Price and Holtby ought to return around the new year -- so don't necessarily expect gaudy end-of-year numbers.

NOTABLE INJURIES

Most of what's out there is either stuff you already know about (the goalies) or day-to-day stuff that'll drop off the board shortly. The one exception -- Sidney Crosby was just recently injured and is out for evaluation. That's an injury that could change the shape of the race, depending on the severity. We'll keep an eye on that one.

[SeattleBattleCat]

Nice going so far, the firebirds are going great. 👍

Really like the presentation, easy to read & well set out. Looking forward to more.

[PFellah]

Thanks! Smash Bros waylaid me for a few days, but I'm back... :P

Quote: Originally Posted by SeattleBattleCat

Nice going so far, the firebirds are going great. �� Really like the presentation, easy to read & well set out. Looking forward to more.

[PFellah]

December 2018: The First Slump In The Road



Guess which potato-head didn't bother to collect any screenshots this month? Ah well.

December sees the Firebirds hit their first rough patch, suffering a multi-game losing streak, but the Birds bounce back after Christmas, and overall they're still in the mix. Marquee matchups for the month include Washington, the defending champs; the former Thrashers and current Winnipeg Jets; and the month ending with a challenge atop the standings against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

12/2 vs Colorado – 4-1 W (SO)
The month starts with a fairly easy win, as Grubauer stops 34 of 35 pucks. Hagelin leads the way with a pair of goals.

12/5 at Philadelphia – 2-1 W
Philly is in the basement so this game feels like it shouldn't have been this close. Atlanta stumbles through two periods before Rick Nash salvages a victory in the third.

Annnnd... Adam Larsson is injured again. Evaluation pending.

12/7 at Winnipeg – 3-1 L
Atlanta pays a visit to the home of their city's former residents, the Jets. The teams traded early goals, but then the Jets seemed to kick in another gear, and it felt like a matter of time until they broke out on top. The winner happened midway through the 3rd when Blake Wheeler picked Jesper Fast’s pocket exiting the defensive zone, and buried a breakaway. The Jets added an insurance goal on a late power play when Kesler got whistled for slashing trying to make a play on a loose puck in the Winnipeg end. Ehlers and Little also scored for the Jets; Kesler had the lone Atlanta tally.

Another insultingly low DeMelo offer. Starting to think I might just pull him off the block entirely. And Larsson will be out to the 19th. For the moment, I won't bother calling anyone up because I don't want to have to try to send them back down through waivers, but if anyone else gets hurt, I might have to.

12/9 at Carolina – 4-2 L
Rare back-to-back losses as Carolina breaks out to an early 2-0 lead and makes it stand up. Perron and Rick Nash score for the ‘Birds.

12/10 at MTL – 5-4 W (SO)
It got a little ugly, as Atlanta nearly blew an early lead in the 3rd. But Kesler scored with about a minute left to send the game to overtime tied at 4, and Craig Smith scored the winner in the shootout.

12/12 at Vancouver – 5-1 L
Ouch. A low-scoring 1-1 affair becomes a laugher in the 3rd as Vancouver throws up 4 unanswered goals. Let's never speak of it again.

12/14 at Columbus – 3-2 L (SO)
The teams trade goals in the first and third periods, but Columbus pulls it out in the shootout, with Artemi Panarin administering the knockout blow. Smith and Kesler score for the ‘Birds. Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois get the regulation tallies for Columbus.

12/16 vs Edmonton – 5-1 L
Much the same as the Vancouver game, a messy third period turns a close game into a blowout. Cogliano gets the sole tally for Atlanta; four different Oilers get on the board.

12/20 at Dallas – 4-3 L
Argh. Dallas creeps out to a 2-0 lead through the first two periods. Atlanta comes back to tie the game 3-3, but Jason Spezza scores with 1:17 left to send the ‘Birds down to defeat. Cogliano, Perron, and the lately-quiet Sbruev score in the losing effort.

OK, I'm starting to get a little worried. That's 1-5-1 in my last 7 with the lone win coming in a shootout. I'm not panicking, but I'm starting to think it may be time to look at making a trade or two to shake things up. One thing I've noticed is Sbruev has been ice-cold -- I think I saw... ONE goal from him, maybe?


12/22 at Ottawa – 5-2 W
The Firebirds take out their aggression on the cellar-dwelling Senators to finally break the slump they’re in. Atlanta racks up a 3-0 lead in the first, and then adds two in the 3rd when Ottawa starts to creep back within striking distance. Five different scorers, but few of the usual suspects.

12/27 at Nashville – 7-5 W
It's "Defense Optional Night" in Nashville! Despite both teams being held below 30 shots, the teams combined for 12 goals. Nashville controlled the middle of the game, but Atlanta dominated the start (4-1 lead in the first) and the end (the last two tallies, once Nashville had tied the game at 5-5). Still, an ugly win is still worth two points.

12/28 vs Washington – 5-1 W
Washington's offense is on fire (Ovi and Kuznetsov are 1-2 in scoring) but their record doesn't reflect it because Holtby has been out injured. If you’re going to make hay against the defending champs, best to do it while their starting goalie is out, I guess. Ovechkin gets the first goal of the game, but Atlanta evens the game with 3.6 seconds left in the first period and breaks it wide open in the 2nd with four goals in a little more than three minutes. In fairness, Washington caught a few pipes that could’ve made the final result a little closer, but it feels good to be on a positive roll.

12/30 at Toronto – 2-1 L
Atlanta’s calendar year ends with a battle with division leading Toronto, and while Atlanta gives it a good effort, they can’t quite solve Fredrick Andersen. After almost two periods of scoreless hockey, William Nylander (as someone who grew up in the 80s, I keep calling him Michael) scores at the end of the 2nd on a low-angle shot from the goal line to give the Leafs a lead. Things start to brighten up when Jesper Fast bangs one home at the start of the third, but then Nazem Kadri is in the right place to bury a rebound halfway through the 3rd that ends up being the game-winner.

MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 6-6-1
YEAR-TO-DATE: 21-12-4, 46 points
DIVISION: 3rd place, behind Toronto (50) and Boston (47)
CONFERENCE: Currently 5th in points. If The Playoffs Started Today (ITPST), we'd be facing Boston. Columbus 54, Pittsburgh 52, Toronto 50, Boston 47, Atlanta 46, Tampa Bay 45, Carolina 44, New Jersey 42.

TEAM LEADERS

GOALS: Kesler 17, Sbruev 10, Riley Nash 9, Perron 9, Rick Nash 8, Smith 8, Hagelin 8
ASSISTS: Perron 18, Kesler 16, Riley Nash 16, Fast 16, Petrovic 14, Murphy 14, Smith 14
POINTS: Kesler 33, Perron 27, Riley Nash 25, Fast 23, Sbruev 22, Smith 22
PLUS-MINUS: Riley Nash 11, Smith 9, Murphy 8, Petrovic 7, Cogliano 6


ON THE FARM
Birmingham still playing pretty well -- I suppose the biggest positive sign is that Linus Ullmark finally had a fairly healthy month and has been doing really well when he plays (sub 2.00 GAA). Dominik Simon is now the team leader in goals with 14, with Jordan Martinook right behind him at 13. Nail Yakupov leads in assists and points. Given the recent slump, is it time to shake things up and give some of these guys a look?

[PFellah]

December 2018: Around The League

Things are starting to spread out a bit, but there are still interesting races in all four divisions. Toronto sits at the top of four teams in the Atlantic. Columbus and Pittsburgh are battling for the Presidents' Trophy along with the Metro crown. Nashville has finally caught up to Chicago in the Central, and the Kings have slipped behind Edmonton and San Jose out west.

At the bottom, Ottawa, Calgary, and Philly are candidates for the early tee times at local golf courses. Everyone else is still a hot streak away from being right back in it.

STANDINGS


Big mover (at least standings-wise): Dallas. Went from next-to-last in their division to 3rd. However, I'm not sure how much of a splash that is because 3rd through 6th/7th has been close the whole season, and they're still several points behind Nashville and Chicago.

LEAGUE LEADERS


Sidney Crosby's injury wasn't that serious, but it did bump him off the leaderboards. Ovi and Kusnetzov still sit 1-2 in scoring; Montreal's Max Pacioretty is the big mover, vaulting his way onto the leaderboards in assists and points. The elite goalies are still who we've been seeing all year -- Andersen, Bobrovsky, Crawford show up everywhere; TB's Vasilevsky and Pittsburgh's Matt Murray are new to the conversation.

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev is still the guy to beat, though his comparatively slow month allowed some of the other guys to make a race of it. Pittsburgh's Zach Aston-Reese has emerged as a top threat with the Pens' offense behind him. Carolina's Valentin Zykov made a bit of a splash after being nowhere in sight for the first two months. Most of the goalies in the conversation are probably going to fade from the conversation now that their starters are healthy again.

(Also, ignore the Excel error on Vancouver's Elias Pettersson. 10 assists is, in fact, 10 points... Not 2. I'm thinking at some point I must've typed his plus-minus in that cell and wiped the formula.)

[PFellah]

January 2019: The Plot Thickens



Hard to say what this team's true talent level is. On one hand, they're probably not as good as their hot start way back when, but on the other hand, they've lost some nail-biters to some really good teams, so if you changed just a few L's to W's, they'd be up in the elite reaches of the league. As it is, they're still in the playoff mix, though they just finished their second month of .500 hockey and things are tightening up around them.

1/1 at Chicago – 6-4 W
Atlanta starts the new year on a high note, holding off the on-again/off-again Central leader. The teams went back and forth early, knotting the score at 1-1 and 2-2 before Atlanta got a pair to end the first period leading 4-2. Chicago got one back in the 2nd period, but Atlanta held serve down the stretch to start the new year on a positive note.

1/4 at Minnesota – 9-3 L
Chalk it up to injuries (Rick Nash and Alex Petrovic were both out with short-term injuries) but the Firebirds’ 3rd-period woes return with a vengeance as Minnesota puts up 7 goals in the final frame. Zack Parise, Nino Niederreiter, and Charlie Coyle each score twice for the Wild. Grubauer got 46 minutes to Halak’s 14, but they both got shelled.

1/6 at Anaheim – 2-1 L
I suppose a low-scoring loss after the debacle in Minnesota represents progress, but losing in the final minute stings a bit. Adam Henrique beats Halak with 56 seconds to play to cap off a game where the Ducks registered 43 shots. Playing against his former team, Kesler scored the lone goal for the Firebirds.

1/8 vs Buffalo – 2-1 L
Grubauer is out with an injury, so Linus Ullmark gets the call from the minors and gets the start. Unfortunately, the offensive malaise continues as Buffalo puts up a pair and holds on to win. Mark Letestu is the only Firebird to score.

I was a little worried that might mean I might lose Ullmark on waivers when he got sent back down, but that wasn't an issue and he got back to the minors safely. Maybe I need to brush up on my waiver rules.


1/11 vs Florida – 6-2 L
Sorry, but I'm going to break character -- this one was almost entirely some sort of CPU slider crap. I played this one live to take some screenshots, and pretty much got called for a penalty any time I pushed a button. Charging when I tried to beat an icing play. Slashing trying to knock home a rebound. Tripping when blocking a shot. I'm surprised I didn't get whistled for trying to win a faceoff. 12 power plays for the Panthers including a 5-minute major/game misconduct for Cogliano on the icing play. I think I spent pretty much the whole second period short-handed. I refuse to dignify the result by writing a conventional summary, but whatever... it's one game out of 82.

1/13 at Calgary – 3-2 W (OT)
The road trip starts with even the cellar-dwelling Flames taking us to overtime. Lovely. Atlanta breaks out to the early lead on a goal by Pitlick, but give back two in the 2nd period. Riley Nash scores early in the 3rd to even the game at 2-2, and Adam Lowry scores in OT to give the Firebirds a much-needed win.

1/14 at New York Rangers – 4-1 L
A scoreless first period looks promising, but the Rangers score two goals each in the 2nd and 3rd periods against Jaroslav Halak.

1/17 at San Jose – 6-2 W
The emotional rollercoaster continues with a really solid road win against a tough San Jose team. Kesler scores a pair to lead the attack; both Nashes, Cogliano, and Pitlick also get in on the action.

1/18 at Pittsburgh – 4-3 L
A genuinely fun game but with a heartbreaker of a finish. Pittsburgh breaks out to a 3-1 lead but the Firebirds slowly claw their way back into it, tying it at 3-3 late in the 2nd. But at the very end of a back-and-forth third period, Atlanta makes an untimely turnover, turning Patric Hornqvist loose on a breakaway. Hornqvist puts the puck behind Halak with 23 seconds remaining to give the Pens the last-minute win. Kessel for the Pens and Sbruev each scored a pair but neither could complete the hat trick.

1/21 at Detroit – 3-2 W (SO)
The road trip ends with a squeaker in the Motor City. Atlanta popped in front twice, but the Red Wings answer both times. Frans Nielsen answers Jesper Fast’s opening goal, and after Sburev scores in the 2nd, Anthony Mantha equalizes it in the 3rd to force overtime and a shootout. In the shootout, it’s Jesper Fast again with the decider.

1/23 vs Arizona – 5-0 W
After the long road trip, home cooking agrees with the Firebirds as they slap the Coyotes around on home ice. Five different goal scorers – Kesler, Fast, Pitlick, Nash the Elder, and Cogliano.

1/30 vs Boston – 4-2 W
After a weird week-long break, the Bruins come to town for an important divisional matchup. Atlanta opens up a 2-0 lead, but Patrice Bergeron cuts it in half to make it 2-1 at the first intermission. But the Firebirds come out strong in the 2nd with two unanswered goals in the 2nd, and make it hold up in the 3rd.


MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 6-6-0
YEAR-TO-DATE: 27-18-4, 58 points
DIVISION: 3rd place, behind Toronto (67) and Florida (62), but the next few slots are really close -- Tampa sits at 58; Boston and Buffalo at 57.
CONFERENCE: Still currently 5th in points, but again, things have tightened quite a bit. Full top 8: Columbus 70, Toronto 67, Pittsburgh 64, Florida 62, Atlanta 58, Tampa 58, Boston 57, Washington 57. (But Buffalo is also at 57, so it's really a Top 9).

TEAM LEADERS

GOALS: Kesler 22, Riley Nash 13, Sbruev 13, Fast 11, Rick Nash 11, Perron 11, Smith 11
ASSISTS: Perron 26, Kesler 22, Fast 21, Sbruev 20, Petrovic 19
POINTS: Kesler 44, Perron 37, Sbruev 33, Fast 32, Riley Nash 31
PLUS-MINUS: Petrovic 14, Murphy 12, Smith 11, Riley Nash 10, Djoos 8, Lowry 8


ON THE FARM
I got in a mood and didn't particularly look. Maybe I'll go back and update this later; maybe I'll just pick it up next month.

[PFellah]

January 2019: Around The League

There seems to be a pattern emerging in three of the four divisions -- there's a strong top two, a bit of a gap, and then Lord of the Flies-level chaos for the lower spots.

• Atlantic: Toronto 67, Florida 62, four teams at 57-58.
• Metro: Columbus 70, Pittsburgh 64, Caps at 57, four teams between 51-54
• Central: Chicago 64, Nashville 61, four teams from 52-56.

The Pacific isn't a blowout -- it's more that the frontrunners aren't that far in front, and there's pretty uniform 2-3 point gaps from 1st down to 7th place.

STANDINGS


I suppose the big movers this month are Florida in the Atlantic and the Caps in the Metro. Anaheim also seems to be making a little bit of a run out west, though the Kings have also rebounded nicely from losing the division lead.

LEAGUE LEADERS


Tavares and Eberle wedged their way in between Ovi at the top and Kuznetsov, so the Caps 1-2 scoring leadership is... well, not broken... they're all within 3 points of each other... but dented. Jamie Benn seems to be this month's new rising star, and Sidney Crosby has returned to the Top 10 in scoring.

Goalies: mostly the usual suspects. Just for grins I expanded those leaderboards from Top 5 to Top 10. Got tired of the uneven look of it. Holtby (WSH) and Price (MTL), both returning from injuries, now have enough games to qualify for the rate stats.

CALDER WATCH


After a lackluster December, Sbruev had a pretty strong January to create some breathing room. Fellow 2018 draftee Andre Svechnikov is also climbing the rookie scoring leaderboard, but he's still got a ways to go to catch up. Jordan Greenway is still in the Top 10, but hasn't been doing a lot recently, and Elias Pettersson has numbers (1 goal, 17 assists) that look more like a defenseman than a center. (Annnd crud, I forgot to fix that Excel error. He should be up in 5th/6th place with Donato.)


I'm still tracking the rookie goalies for now, but I may stop reporting it soon if something doesn't change. Fucale got sent to the minors. Subban and Copley only got starts while their starters were injured and are now reduced to backups; that leaves only Boston's McIntyre getting any major ice time.

[BT2008]

Cool format and graphics, like the Calder Watch... Definitely following now.