FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

[charter04]

Hey Dan, have you ever considered also including traits in your system? I would love to know based on real data what those traits should be. Throws tight spiral, how often they take off running, pocket presence, big hitter.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

All of the grades for the attributes stay the same. The only thing that changes is the overall grade. So for Ray Rice, his vision grade is 4.0/5.0. That doesn't change. The only thing that changes is the OVR score which is modified by a separate category that is dependent upon injury/suspension/misc. holds. This is what makes the overall grade drop for any player. The attribute data doesn't change one bit unless there is evidence to support the change. Madden doesn't allow us to change the OVR score without modifying the attributes. So, we have to choose one or the other. Modify the attributes and get the correct OVR rating, or leave the attributes alone and get an incorrect OVR rating. As you can see, because there are typically more injuries than suspensions and the injuries do affect one's attributes, I have chosen to go with the correct OVR in these cases. Scouts grade players less for suspensions/history all the time. Some scouts and GMs take them off of their boards all together. You don't have to take my word for it though, just do an internship with a scouting service or NFL front office. That's what I did. Regardless, none of this conversation will make me change my mind on any of this. It is what it is. If you do not like it, don't use the ratings.

I'm not trying to make you change your mind or argue the point. I just was curious as to the reasoning behind it. But obviously I know that GMs will take certain guys off their board due to other factors. But you keep going back to the NFL draft...this is about Madden ratings though. Now I get what your saying, but you don't need to take the "if you don't like it go away attitude."

With that out of the way, what I am curious about is strictly what the scouts do. Staying on Ray Rice, for his suspension why would they change his grades/overall at all? Same thing with an injury.

Rather than explain it I have always fancied screenwriting so indulge me here. Hypothetical scenario: After Ray's incident Baltimore released him. Lets also imagine that Bernard's contract expired and the Ravens opted not to resign him. Team X is considering signing one of those players so the GM brings in his scout.

GM: Okay so what do you got for Rice?
Scout: Well we grade him overall at a 26.
GM: what? Yeah he had a bad year but he looked that bad?
Scout: Well no, but he is suspended so we lowered his final grade. Based on film he is a 72 but he beats his wife so we lowered him to factor in the risk.
GM: ...You are a scout. You scout football players. You report to me how good of a football player a guy is. We are aware of his history and myself and the coaches and ownership will take that into consideration. Your job is to report accurate data. How did you determine the 26 anyway?
Scout: Well we added a multiplier that would lower his final grade to a level we felt was sufficient and uh...
GM: It was arbitrary wasn't it? Nevermind, what about Bernard?
Scout: Ah we uh graded him a 32...
GM: why?
Scout: he is coming off surgery.
GM: So you think his ability to run between the tackles is diminished?
Scout: Nah, we didn't touch that. Actually he grades as a 62 but we dropped him.
GM: Because he is injured? And you are expecting a decrease in ability?
Scout: I don't know I am not a medical doctor or anything; we just dropped him to convey to you that...
GM: Get out of my office.
*end scene*

Of course I know that GMs do not care about overall rating like certain Madden players. It makes the whole damn thing pointless though. It is arbitrary and I have a hard time believing that professional scouts would manipulate data in this way. Going back to the draft, sure that may be different, but it is my opinion that abilities, injury concerns, and character should all be separate. If some front offices combine those categories to arrive at a final grade that is understandable but they do not arbitrarily drop the football grade.

[michiganfan8620]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

I'm not trying to make you change your mind or argue the point. I just was curious as to the reasoning behind it. But obviously I know that GMs will take certain guys off their board due to other factors. But you keep going back to the NFL draft...this is about Madden ratings though. Now I get what your saying, but you don't need to take the "if you don't like it go away attitude." With that out of the way, what I am curious about is strictly what the scouts do. Staying on Ray Rice, for his suspension why would they change his grades/overall at all? Same thing with an injury. Rather than explain it I have always fancied screenwriting so indulge me here. Hypothetical scenario: After Ray's incident Baltimore released him. Lets also imagine that Bernard's contract expired and the Ravens opted not to resign him. Team X is considering signing one of those players so the GM brings in his scout. GM: Okay so what do you got for Rice? Scout: Well we grade him overall at a 26. GM: what? Yeah he had a bad year but he looked that bad? Scout: Well no, but he is suspended so we lowered his final grade. Based on film he is a 72 but he beats his wife so we lowered him to factor in the risk. GM: ...You are a scout. You scout football players. You report to me how good of a football player a guy is. We are aware of his history and myself and the coaches and ownership will take that into consideration. Your job is to report accurate data. How did you determine the 26 anyway? Scout: Well we added a multiplier that would lower his final grade to a level we felt was sufficient and uh... GM: It was arbitrary wasn't it? Nevermind, what about Bernard? Scout: Ah we uh graded him a 32... GM: why? Scout: he is coming off surgery. GM: So you think his ability to run between the tackles is diminished? Scout: Nah, we didn't touch that. Actually he grades as a 62 but we dropped him. GM: Because he is injured? And you are expecting a decrease in ability? Scout: I don't know I am not a medical doctor or anything; we just dropped him to convey to you that... GM: Get out of my office. *end scene* Of course I know that GMs do not care about overall rating like certain Madden players. It makes the whole damn thing pointless though. It is arbitrary and I have a hard time believing that professional scouts would manipulate data in this way. Going back to the draft, sure that may be different, but it is my opinion that abilities, injury concerns, and character should all be separate. If some front offices combine those categories to arrive at a final grade that is understandable but they do not arbitrarily drop the football grade.

I agree 100% with this

[ggsimmonds]

One thing I should add, this is not about your Madden ratings per se and whether or not I would use them. You are a scientist so you should understand this better than most. You probably do not plan on going for a swim in lava flow but you still want to know how hot it is and how it works. I am not attacking or arguing your methods for rating guys. It is about the scouts. If you took it on yourself to change the rating to illustrate a player's circumstance that is different and understandable.

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

One thing I should add, this is not about your Madden ratings per se and whether or not I would use them. You are a scientist so you should understand this better than most. You probably do not plan on going for a swim in lava flow but you still want to know how hot it is and how it works. I am not attacking or arguing your methods for rating guys. It is about the scouts. If you took it on yourself to change the rating to illustrate a player's circumstance that is different and understandable.

Hey man, I just interpolate the data based on what I was told about it when I started the project. If I could give you the contact info for the front office of the team or the person who supplies it, I would, and you could take this up with them. In your hypothetical situation, what is more likely to happen is that the GM would simply take the player off of their board. What would happen is the GM could see how the player graded individually in each skill then look at the data as to why his overall grade has been lowered. These guys are pretty smart; they know what to look for.

The real problem here is that Madden ONLY allows us to manage the OVR rating by the attributes. We can't "tag" a player as injured or suspended, leave his attributes alone, and then see his OVR drop as it is supposed to (like in the scouting data).

Now, I am quite tired of the back and forth on this and it is getting quite off topic. So, let's move on. The banter back and forth is not being productive to the topic. This looped discussion will not change how the scouts rate their players. It will not change how I use their data. So, logically, all of this is for not. Let's get the thread back on topic please.

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by charter04

Hey Dan, have you ever considered also including traits in your system? I would love to know based on real data what those traits should be. Throws tight spiral, how often they take off running, pocket presence, big hitter.

I have a TON of trait data. The problem is it is all written out in text and not assigned a value. Multiply each report by about 70,000 players and you have a TON of work to do, which requires a ton of time...time I do not have.

[A_Quiet_Pro]

I could be wrong here, but my understanding is that there's like an algorithm that more accurately portrays the existing Madden ratings for players and teams. Would it be possible to just take a spreadsheet of the Madden ratings (spreadsheets are available once the ratings are released I believe), but take the spreadsheet, and feed that info into the algorithms and allow the computer to change everything over? Maybe it's not as easy as I think it is. (OR Maybe EA can hire Dan and have him work with Donny lol).

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by A_Quiet_Pro

I could be wrong here, but my understanding is that there's like an algorithm that more accurately portrays the existing Madden ratings for players and teams. Would it be possible to just take a spreadsheet of the Madden ratings (spreadsheets are available once the ratings are released I believe), but take the spreadsheet, and feed that info into the algorithms and allow the computer to change everything over? Maybe it's not as easy as I think it is. (OR Maybe EA can hire Dan and have him work with Donny lol).

The problem is that the scouting data references different criteria (attributes) and formulas (the OVR calculation formula) to reach an OVR rating versus that in Madden. In fact, there are some attributes that either don't exist in Madden or Madden has some attributes that don't exist in the scouting data. For instance, there is no "balance" rating in Madden (which is a key attribute in the scouting data).

So the problem arises when converting one set of data to the other. Neither is mutually exclusive and exhaustive. I can pick out criteria that matches Madden and find attributes in Madden that match the scouting criteria, but there is not a 100% match amongst all criteria for all positions (like the "Clutch" grade for K's and the "Release In Time" grade for QBs). So, we have to ignore some and include others.

In addition, the scouts value certain criteria very differently than Madden does. Madden places a multiplier of 0.329 on THP, but the scouts only have a similar multiplier (or significance, if you will) of 0.16. That means that Madden values THP twice as much more than what the scouts value "Arm Strength" for the QB position. This automatically throws the equations off.

What EA needs to do is get a real scouting department involved that uses real data and real formulas. Then, they need to overhaul the ratings system based on the scouting variables and OVR scores. Only then will you see something close to 100% realism. FBG Ratings can use real data to interpolate Madden ratings based upon it, but as I said earlier, it won't match the scouting data 100%. If someone like me was brought in, we would have to, first and foremost, revamp the entire way that players are graded and rated. We can still use attributes and OVR ratings as forms of measure to differentiate between players, but we would have to make it mimic the data source.

So one must ask themselves, what data sources are EA-Tiburon/Donny Moore using and how well do they actually correlate to the Madden ratings we see in the game? From what I have heard they do a lot of youtube scouting, look at simple stats, and even use some PFF data (which I have pointed out in several topics are nearly useless for determining attributes, but are great at determining traits).