OSFM 2015: Detroit Tigers

[Ivanhoe]

Quote: Originally Posted by Karle

ZIPS Projections for Catchers ZIPS Projections are not broken down by left and right. For the following players I came out with: Miguel Gonzalez: Contact: 53 Power: 24 Vision: 54 Discipline: 26 Manny Pina: Contact: 47 Power: 37 Vision: 60 Discipline: 52 The first two numbers would need to be adjusted to create right and left values as the numbers are averages of the right and left.

I've updated the spreadsheet with these ZIP Projections.

[Karle]

Ivanhoe,

I agree that with the pitchers that you should not go below 30 on any of the values. The Roster Tool sometimes gives too low numbers.

Showtyme,

Thanks for the explanation about players who spend the whole season on the Major League DL. Thus, Jose Iglesias should also be included in the game.

I finished the ZIPS for the remaining players. Here I will post the numbers as they came out of the Roster Tools, but agree that perhaps no number should be less than 20. Here they are:

Mike Hessman
Contact 42
Power 71
Vision 18 (raise this to at least 20)
Discipline 59

Jordan Lennerton
Contact 40
Power 44
Vision 26
Discipline 75

Dean Green
Contact 55
Power 37
Vision 44
Discipline 41

Brandon Douglas
Contact 53
Power 24
Vision 59
Discipline 43

Wade Gaynor
Contact 29
Power 42
Vision 5 (I would raise this to 20)
Discipline 47

Dixon Machado
Contact 55
Power 24
Vision 59
Discipline 62

Daniel Fields
Contact 53
Power 34
Vision 26
Discipline 47

Xavier Avery
Contact 56
Power 27
Vision 36
Discipline 58

Wynton Bernard
Contact 56
Power 24
Vision 52
Discipline 52

All the other position players listed in the ZIPS projections for the Detroit Tigers either had Major League Service or are no longer on the team.

Karle

[Karle]

Quote: Originally Posted by Ivanhoe

Karle, Thanks again for this. I do have a few question about some of the numbers: HR/9 for Hankins, Melville, Ryan and de la Rosa. These seem a little low. Going by Knight's charts these pitchers will give up about 40 HR/season. I can't see going lower than 30, otherwise why bother creating the player. BB/9 for Melvin Mercedes. He's a pitchers that lacks control. Last year he walked 2 per 9 innings. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know a lot about ZIP Projections so, perhaps I'm way off. Just thought I'd ask how this numbers came about.

Ivanhoe, I just ran the numbers based on the ZIPS Projections. However, my understanding is the same as yours that Melvin Mercedes has control problems. Please do not feel compelled to follow the results based on ZIPS when you disagree. Perhaps we do not agree with the assumptions made in doing the ZIPS calculations. The same is true for the position players. If anything seems off then you should go with your gut instead.

Karle

[ghostofsparta15]

Hey Gents...just letting you all know I'm about 90% done with the equipment sheet.

I'll be out of town next week, but look to go back and look at spring training gear and update some of the roster sheet after that.

[Ivanhoe]

Quote: Originally Posted by ghostofsparta15

Hey Gents...just letting you all know I'm about 90% done with the equipment sheet. I'll be out of town next week, but look to go back and look at spring training gear and update some of the roster sheet after that.

Awesome. We have plenty of time before the game drops. We're in pretty good shape, take some time off, enjoy yourself...

Have a safe trip, thanks for the hard work.

[Karle]

Ivanhoe,

I did a check of the 2014 Roster and noted it included the following number of players:

Pitchers - 44
Catchers - 7
Infielders - 25
Outfielders - 14

I am starting to go through the players in your chart. I began with the first basemen/DH. I looked only at the top 7 as the roster should include no more than that number. Here is what I found.

1. Miguel Cabrera - in game
2. Victor Martinez - in game
3. Jordan Lennerton:

In your chart you have the contact numbers as 41/31. The ZIPS number came out as 40 and using my chart with the addition of two points for being a "C" the number came out as 41. I might bump him to 43/33.

4. Aaron Westlake:

In your chart you have 48/38. Using the chart I came up with 31. I think the 48 and 38 numbers may be too high.

5. Dean Green:

In your chart you had 53 and 49. ZIPS came up with 55. However, using my chart I came up with 64. I think you should raise the numbers for Dean.

6. James Robbins:

In your chart you have 45 and 26. From my chart I gave him the minimum number of 20. He batted only .231 at Lakeland in 2014.

7. Dominic Ficociello:

In your chart you give him 40 and 49. Using my chart I come up only with 23. He did bat .275 in 2014, but it was at Western Michigan. I think his values of 40 and 49 are too high for a player who is only at the A level with such a batting average.

I do not see any need to look at any more than seven 1B/DH players.

Karle

P.S. If anyone else wants a copy of my conversion chart, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I will forward it to you.

[Ivanhoe]

Quote: Originally Posted by Karle

Ivanhoe, I agree that with the pitchers that you should not go below 30 on any of the values. The Roster Tool sometimes gives too low numbers. Showtyme, Thanks for the explanation about players who spend the whole season on the Major League DL. Thus, Jose Iglesias should also be included in the game. I finished the ZIPS for the remaining players. Here I will post the numbers as they came out of the Roster Tools, but agree that perhaps no number should be less than 20. Here they are: Mike Hessman Contact 42 Power 71 Vision 18 (raise this to at least 20) Discipline 59 Jordan Lennerton Contact 40 Power 44 Vision 26 Discipline 75 Dean Green Contact 55 Power 37 Vision 44 Discipline 41 Brandon Douglas Contact 53 Power 24 Vision 59 Discipline 43 Wade Gaynor Contact 29 Power 42 Vision 5 (I would raise this to 20) Discipline 47 Dixon Machado Contact 55 Power 24 Vision 59 Discipline 62 Daniel Fields Contact 53 Power 34 Vision 26 Discipline 47 Xavier Avery Contact 56 Power 27 Vision 36 Discipline 58 Wynton Bernard Contact 56 Power 24 Vision 52 Discipline 52 All the other position players listed in the ZIPS projections for the Detroit Tigers either had Major League Service or are no longer on the team. Karle

Karle,

I've made adjustments to the spreadsheet per your posts. I thought the contact rate for Douglas, Avery and especially Bernard were a touch high, but it wasn't too far off so I'm good with it.

Quote: Originally Posted by Karle

Ivanhoe, I did a check of the 2014 Roster and noted it included the following number of players: Pitchers - 44 Catchers - 7 Infielders - 25 Outfielders - 14 I am starting to go through the players in your chart. I began with the first basemen/DH. I looked only at the top 7 as the roster should include no more than that number. Here is what I found. 1. Miguel Cabrera - in game 2. Victor Martinez - in game 3. Jordan Lennerton: In your chart you have the contact numbers as 41/31. The ZIPS number came out as 40 and using my chart with the addition of two points for being a "C" the number came out as 41. I might bump him to 43/33. 4. Aaron Westlake: In your chart you have 48/38. Using the chart I came up with 31. I think the 48 and 38 numbers may be too high. 5. Dean Green: In your chart you had 53 and 49. ZIPS came up with 55. However, using my chart I came up with 64. I think you should raise the numbers for Dean. 6. James Robbins: In your chart you have 45 and 26. From my chart I gave him the minimum number of 20. He batted only .231 at Lakeland in 2014. 7. Dominic Ficociello: In your chart you give him 40 and 49. Using my chart I come up only with 23. He did bat .275 in 2014, but it was at Western Michigan. I think his values of 40 and 49 are too high for a player who is only at the A level with such a batting average. I do not see any need to look at any more than seven 1B/DH players. Karle P.S. If anyone else wants a copy of my conversion chart, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I will forward it to you.

I'm not high on Westlake but I think his contact would be higher than 31, not much higher, but higher. So, I lowered his contact to be more in line with your chart. 33/29.

I guess the same could be said for Robbins. I really don't think he'll be in the roster set anyway but I did lower his contact also.

Ficociello could be an issue. I did lower his contact but not down to 23. By all the scouting reports his hit tool is his biggest asset. Hitting .275 at West Michigan isn't too bad for a 22 year old. His average has risen each year. I do think there is a chance that he will wash out but this year will be big for him. I put him at 37/44.

Let me know your thoughts.

[Karle]

Thanks Ivanhoe,

I am fine with your proposed change to Westlake. He was invited to Spring Training and so perhaps the number from the chart is too low.

The issue with players like Ficociello and Robbins is that being only at Western Michigan normally it would be three more years before they would reach Toledo, assuming they progress normally and begin the year at Western Michigan. If Ficociello is a "C" potential player, then his numbers would progress 4 per year or 12 giving him when he reached Toledo or 49/56.

The other issue with the higher numbers for Robbins and Ficociella is that when you give them numbers higher than Westlake the game may want to move them ahead of him right away. The game will see Robbins and Ficociella as the better players immediately, rather than later after they advance through development. Perhaps it is enough if they are just a little bit under Westlake to maintain the order of things.

Those are my thoughts at least. Perhaps the chart numbers are a bit low. It is after all just an estimate and there was a lot of variation among players when I put it together.

Karle