MLB 16 Progression/Regression Discussion

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by tessl

If you play some games in manage mode on default sliders I'm sure you will get similar issues. It isn't a conspiracy, they have stated stats based progression is in the game. As of April 21st for just a few teams. polanco ecstatic +3 CONvsL no change rhp Mercer happy +3 CONvsL -1PWRvsL no change rhp Kang ecstatic -3 CONvsR -3 CONvsL -2 PRWvsL Harrison happy -2 CONvsL no change rhp Adams happy -3 CONvsL -2PRvsL no change rhp Carpenter ecstatic -1 CONvsR -1PWRvsR -3 CONvsL Goldschmidt ecstatic-1 CONvsL -3 PWRvsL no change rhp Gosselin ecstatic +3 PWRvsL no change rhp Segura ecstatic -3 CONvsL no change rhp Pollock happy +2 PWRvsR -2 PWRvsL Peralta ecstatic +1 CONvsL +2 PWRvsL no change rhp Spangenberg satisfied -4 CONvsL no change rhp I see no relationship between morale and progression or regression and why would morale impact most vsLHP? I suspect what they have done is fail to account for only 30% of MLB pitches faced being vsLHP which has resulted in extreme progression/regression in a small sample size.

They devs have stated (Victor_SDS to be specific) that progression doesn't occur until a minimum threshhold of at bats is reached, which you are nowhere near. Perhaps what you are seeing is hot/cold streaks? Again, the idea of progression kicking in during April of the 1st year is either absurd or a bug. You should submit a bug report if you are certain about what you're seeing being faulty progression.

You've also presented a very small sample, so it's not clear whether these are only the cases that fit what you think is happening or whether this is indicative of the league as a whole. Are most of the players unchanged? Is it just these few that have changed? What is happening to other attributes besides contact?

Quote: Originally Posted by tessl

Regarding the difference between the sim engine and the game engine it has been known for years there are two different engines. Different engines = different stats. Different stats = different progression/regression.

The issue isn't whether the game engine and the sim engine can produce different stats from one another. The issue is whether .280 15 HR 85 RBI from played games is seen any differently by the progression system than .280 15 HR 85 RBI from simmed games. I would guess that players with the same stats would progress the same, whether those stats were obtained by playing or simming.

The game engine doesn't particularly matter because most people play their games and the stats they get will be unpredictable and a result of their skill level and slider settings. The sim engine is more important to study because the user doesn't have control over the outcome in simmed games and the league context is heavily dependent on what other (simmed) teams are doing. My focus is studying simmed games and played games for people who run franchises.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by consecutive27

The stats in 2036 are very encouraging. Thanks for posting that. What is the distribution of overall ratings like?

Quote: Originally Posted by consecutive27

The top 5 or so players at each position.

Here you go...

Catcher
Andres Rosado - SF - 93 OVR
Roosevelt Jordan - SD - 93 OVR
Henry Yoshida - HOU - 92 OVR
Matt Lopez - SEA - 89 OVR
Cliff Cronin - PHI - 87 OVR

First Base
Chris Downey - HOU - 89 OVR
Diego Anaya - CWS - 88 OVR
Alexis Guzman - COL - 87 OVR
Bobby Jones - NYM - 86 OVR
Barton Reyes - ATL - 85 OVR

Second Base
Miguel Molina - BAL - 96 OVR
Branden Quevedo - SD - 92 OVR
David Gonzalez - BOS - 90 OVR
Ray Watt - COL - 89 OVR
Clarence Sutton - PHI - 89 OVR

Third Base
Dave Stroud - HOU - 95 OVR
Chester Jorgensen - CHC - 90 OVR
Reggie Prater - WAS - 85 OVR
George Hillman - PIT - 84 OVR
Danny Henderson - TOR - 84 OVR

Shortstop
Marcos Delgado - CWS - 91 OVR
Julio Berroa - ARI - 89 OVR
Nelson Tejada - HOU - 87 OVR
Will Burch - MIL - 87 OVR
Patrick Worthing - BAL - 87 OVR

Left Field
Nathaniel McNeil - NYM - 90 OVR
Rafael Barrera - BAL - 89 OVR
Phillip Oh - SEA - 88 OVR
Johnny Rowe - WAS - 88 OVR
Ramon Perez - TOR - 87 OVR

Center Field
Roosevelt Abercrombie - CHC - 95 OVR
Adrian Perez - CIN - 94 OVR
Luke McCain - LAA - 93 OVR
Chet Lake - SF - 92 OVR
Fernando Montanez - DET - 90 OVR

Right Field
Tyson Knotts - PHI - 92 OVR
Carlos Velasquez - NYM - 91 OVR
Nathaniel Ishikawa - ATL - 90 OVR
Mario Benitez - ARI - 88 OVR
Johnny Holt - BOS - 88 OVR

Starting Pitcher
Brian Paolucci - WAS - 95 OVR
David Frese - DET - 92 OVR
Scott Roche - LAA - 92 OVR
Edgar Hernandez - HOU - 92 OVR
Benji Cortes - STL - 90 OVR

Closer
Bruno Guardado - COL - 96 OVR
Felipe Valenzuela - NYY - 94 OVR
Darrell Malone - SEA - 93 OVR
Brook Thomas - MIL - 92 OVR
Sal Corbett - NYM - 91 OVR

[ComfortablyLomb]

Quote: Originally Posted by JayD

Don't you guys think that a pitchers velocity should slightly decrease as they get older?

It should, at least for fastballs, and probably earlier than most people think. The MLB aging curve on velocity is maintaining through mid/late 20s, then starting to lose, with the loss accelerating through a pitcher's 30s. Obviously some pitchers lose earlier and some later, some quicker and some slower... but that's the overall curve. There is a pretty good article about it on Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch...-introduction/

A noteworthy takeaway from that article is also that pitchers tend to adapt to their velocity decline by adding additional pitches to their repertoire.

Another (more depressing) article discussing how early velocity decline occurs and really stressing the significance of losses in a pitcher's 20s:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article...t-an-early-age

[tessl]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

They devs have stated (Victor_SDS to be specific) that progression doesn't occur until a minimum threshhold of at bats is reached, which you are nowhere near. Perhaps what you are seeing is hot/cold streaks? Again, the idea of progression kicking in during April of the 1st year is either absurd or a bug. You should submit a bug report if you are certain about what you're seeing being faulty progression. You've also presented a very small sample, so it's not clear whether these are only the cases that fit what you think is happening or whether this is indicative of the league as a whole. Are most of the players unchanged? Is it just these few that have changed? What is happening to other attributes besides contact? The issue isn't whether the game engine and the sim engine can produce different stats from one another. The issue is whether .280 15 HR 85 RBI from played games is seen any differently by the progression system than .280 15 HR 85 RBI from simmed games. I would guess that players with the same stats would progress the same, whether those stats were obtained by playing or simming. The game engine doesn't particularly matter because most people play their games and the stats they get will be unpredictable and a result of their skill level and slider settings. The sim engine is more important to study because the user doesn't have control over the outcome in simmed games and the league context is heavily dependent on what other (simmed) teams are doing. My focus is studying simmed games and played games for people who run franchises.

You can check it yourself. You don't have to take my word for it. Something is wrong with the way they are calculating progression vs lhp.

I use manage mode and I stand by everything I said about sim vs gameplay engines being different which will result in different results for stats which, now that we have stat based progression, means simmed progression will differ from games played.

What that means for a franchise is my players will have different progression from players on the other 29 teams in the league since my games are played and every other team's games are simmed. But it's in the game. Nothing can be done about it. It's a shame because the other developers did such great work on lighting, graphics, budgets, morale, animations, classic stadiums etc.

[consecutive27]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

Here you go... Catcher Andres Rosado - SF - 93 OVR Roosevelt Jordan - SD - 93 OVR Henry Yoshida - HOU - 92 OVR Matt Lopez - SEA - 89 OVR Cliff Cronin - PHI - 87 OVR First Base Chris Downey - HOU - 89 OVR Diego Anaya - CWS - 88 OVR Alexis Guzman - COL - 87 OVR Bobby Jones - NYM - 86 OVR Barton Reyes - ATL - 85 OVR Second Base Miguel Molina - BAL - 96 OVR Branden Quevedo - SD - 92 OVR David Gonzalez - BOS - 90 OVR Ray Watt - COL - 89 OVR Clarence Sutton - PHI - 89 OVR Third Base Dave Stroud - HOU - 95 OVR Chester Jorgensen - CHC - 90 OVR Reggie Prater - WAS - 85 OVR George Hillman - PIT - 84 OVR Danny Henderson - TOR - 84 OVR Shortstop Marcos Delgado - CWS - 91 OVR Julio Berroa - ARI - 89 OVR Nelson Tejada - HOU - 87 OVR Will Burch - MIL - 87 OVR Patrick Worthing - BAL - 87 OVR Left Field Nathaniel McNeil - NYM - 90 OVR Rafael Barrera - BAL - 89 OVR Phillip Oh - SEA - 88 OVR Johnny Rowe - WAS - 88 OVR Ramon Perez - TOR - 87 OVR Center Field Roosevelt Abercrombie - CHC - 95 OVR Adrian Perez - CIN - 94 OVR Luke McCain - LAA - 93 OVR Chet Lake - SF - 92 OVR Fernando Montanez - DET - 90 OVR Right Field Tyson Knotts - PHI - 92 OVR Carlos Velasquez - NYM - 91 OVR Nathaniel Ishikawa - ATL - 90 OVR Mario Benitez - ARI - 88 OVR Johnny Holt - BOS - 88 OVR Starting Pitcher Brian Paolucci - WAS - 95 OVR David Frese - DET - 92 OVR Scott Roche - LAA - 92 OVR Edgar Hernandez - HOU - 92 OVR Benji Cortes - STL - 90 OVR Closer Bruno Guardado - COL - 96 OVR Felipe Valenzuela - NYY - 94 OVR Darrell Malone - SEA - 93 OVR Brook Thomas - MIL - 92 OVR Sal Corbett - NYM - 91 OVR

Nice. I counted 18 position players at 90 and above. The default rosters have 17 I think. There are a bit more starting pitchers at 90 and above in the default roster. If that leads to a little bit more offensive output league wide then fine. Better than last year. I can see myself getting deep into franchise and RTTS this year. Looking forward to seeing what scouting is like. Thanks for the info.

[jfeev215]

Tessi, I could be wrong but are you perhaps looking at the player ratings with the negative/positive effects of the coaching staff? Every year MLB the show include coaches that have positive and negative attribute ratings, if you have a coach that provides a +1 for hit pwr and two other coaches that combine for -2 in the some attribute type players will lose one attribute point there. Again I'm not sure but that could be the cause in your particular case.

[R9NALD9]

Very encouraging to me and it seems stat simming as well as progression/regression is the best it's been for quite some time.

I do wish though that they can implement a system within the progression/regression system that will differentiate between players that peak early vs player that peak late etc.

Pro Evolution soccer on PS2 had different development curves for each player. Options were:

Early standard
Early lasting
Normal
Late standard
Late lasting

In other words the early/late means when their peak will be. Standard meant that regression will be standard, whilst lasting meant that player regressed slower.

Really meant players progressed/regressed differently. So if Sony SD can put something on top of their current potential based system I think it would be great. Potential can perhaps mean the ceiling of a player whilst this system determines how quickly or slowly they get to that, and thereafter how quickly/slowly they decrease afterwards.