NBA 2K16: The Contested Shot Conundrum (Part 1)

[ChaseB]

“The NBA is a make or miss league,” said every NBA head coach ever. The drive-and-kick-pick-and-roll world that we now live in is what the NBA is about in 2016. To beat a lot of the best defenses, you have to get them moving side to side, run multiple side pick-and-roll actions, and just hope that rapid ball movement can get you a semi-open look.

In a lot of cases, you’re hoping the ball moves quicker than the defense, or you’re hoping there’s just a single breakdown in the help rotations. Other times you’re hoping the gravity of a great shooter like a Redick or the general greatness of someone like a Curry can bend the defense to give you an easy backdoor cut for a screener or skip pass to an open shooter on the opposite wing.

Oh, and obviously the open corner 3 is still a magical paradise of efficiency.

The point is, even when you do all of these things, it still comes down to making or missing the shot. In many cases, this still means making a semi-contested shot.

The explosion of information made available to the public via SportVU on NBA.com’s stats page has been a nice little toy to mess with for NBA fans these last couple years. While we don’t have every piece of data, we (the public) do have enough to make some general observations. As a video game player and NBA fan, this means I have an extra data set as well: NBA 2K16.

With that in mind, after the jump I’ll be talking about contested and uncontested shots from behind the 3-point line. It’s been a major talking point these last couple years when it comes to NBA 2K. Whether it was the “green release” patch four from last year that made jumpers too easy, or just the general discussion around the frequency with which contested shots do or do not go in the basket, people have a lot of strong opinions on this topic. I have an opinion on this topic as well. However, in the first part of this series, I simply want to outline the data and give you all a chance to provide feedback.

So after the jump, I’ll detail some of the data points I’m working off of to put this article together, and let the numbers mostly speak for themselves from there. Then when I release part two, I’ll dig more into my thoughts on the topic contested shots and discuss it from the perspective of a NBA 2K16 player.

Read More - The Contested Shot Conundrum

[Rockie_Fresh88]

Great article !

what mode in 2k are you basing your findings off of ? Threes seem to go in at a higher number than you presented other than the 0-2 feet. The tight contest I know for sure might as well be an open shot. Also are you going to include contested midrange , contested layups , contested dunks going further ?

[jeebs9]

Quote: Originally Posted by ChaseB

“The NBA is a make or miss league,” said every NBA head coach ever. The drive-and-kick-pick-and-roll world that we now live in is what the NBA is about in 2016. To beat a lot of the best defenses, you have to get them moving side to side, run multiple side pick-and-roll actions, and just hope that rapid ball movement can get you a semi-open look. In a lot of cases, you’re hoping the ball moves quicker than the defense, or you’re hoping there’s just a single breakdown in the help rotations. Other times you’re hoping the gravity of a great shooter like a Redick or the general greatness of someone like a Curry can bend the defense to give you an easy backdoor cut for a screener or skip pass to an open shooter on the opposite wing. Oh, and obviously the open corner 3 is still a magical paradise of efficiency. The point is, even when you do all of these things, it still comes down to making or missing the shot. In many cases, this still means making a semi-contested shot. The explosion of information made available to the public via SportVU on NBA.com’s stats page has been a nice little toy to mess with for NBA fans these last couple years. While we don’t have every piece of data, we (the public) do have enough to make some general observations. As a video game player and NBA fan, this means I have an extra data set as well: NBA 2K16. With that in mind, after the jump I’ll be talking about contested and uncontested shots from behind the 3-point line. It’s been a major talking point these last couple years when it comes to NBA 2K. Whether it was the “green release” patch four from last year that made jumpers too easy, or just the general discussion around the frequency with which contested shots do or do not go in the basket, people have a lot of strong opinions on this topic. I have an opinion on this topic as well. However, in the first part of this series, I simply want to outline the data and give you all a chance to provide feedback. So after the jump, I’ll detail some of the data points I’m working off of to put this article together, and let the numbers mostly speak for themselves from there. Then when I release part two, I’ll dig more into my thoughts on the topic contested shots and discuss it from the perspective of a NBA 2K16 player. Read More - The Contested Shot Conundrum

Once a year Chris writes a article that I totally agree with. And this is it. Great job. Everyone should read this!


Edit: I just notice it's Chase.... My bad lol

[ChaseB]

Quote: Originally Posted by jeebs9

Once a year Chris writes a article that I totally agree with. And this is it. Great job. Everyone should read this! Edit: I just notice it's Chase.... My bad lol

What if that one article Chris writes a year that you agree with is actually MINE. What a twist.

Anyway, I'm happy you agree? But not sure I really made any points that had to be agreed with or not as of yet.

[LO6IX]

Defenders are given too much credit IMO in some situations. I still get bad shot grades, fadeaway animations and bad misses on very late closeouts and with defenders daring me to shoot. I still think releases are too slow because I've seen Curry get his shot blocked in the corner by a defender rotating from the elbow.

[ChaseB]

Quote: Originally Posted by Rockie_Fresh88

Great article ! what mode in 2k are you basing your findings off of ? Threes seem to go in at a higher number than you presented other than the 0-2 feet. The tight contest I know for sure might as well be an open shot. Also are you going to include contested midrange , contested layups , contested dunks going further ?

If you read through the article, I point out it's all based on Play Now Online and then online matches on either HOF or All-Star level.

I am not going to do contested mid-range, contested layups and so on as of now because the NBA data isn't as clean as it is for 3s. (Well, that's only partly true, the data is good, the team stats are not as easy to parse for something like paint shots as they are for individual players. So I could do it on individual players but not the entire league more or less.) But I think it's fair to say contested mid-range go in more than contested 3s etc. in both real life and in-game.

[DBMcGee3]

My biggest gripe is that it seems the CPU makes far more contested shots than I do. Maybe that's just sour grapes on my end, but it seems like there are 2 or 3 times EVERY game where the shot clock is low, I close out on my man and put my hands up, and he drains it in my face, or even worse it rattles around a few seconds before dropping. I literally never get those kinds of shots to go down, and I feel like any time I'm so much as bumped on a layup, it rims out.

I've always assumed that the CPU gets pretty close to a perfect release every time, while obviously some of my shots are early or late releases, so maybe that explains it. I just can't do the "real shot %s" option because I find timing the releases to be really fun and engaging. Que sera, sera.

[yonly1ME]

Quote: Originally Posted by LO6IX

Defenders are given too much credit IMO in some situations. I still get bad shot grades, fadeaway animations and bad misses on very late closeouts and with defenders daring me to shoot. I still think releases are too slow because I've seen Curry get his shot blocked in the corner by a defender rotating from the elbow.

I agree, I think 2K may have to slow down the close out speed in addition to speeding up the releases for some players.