Theory About 3 Point Shooting Releases and Percentages

[xCoachDx]

Ever since 2K18 came out, there has been some debate on shooting in regards to how often our shots go in. I've had this feeling that the game forces our percentages to be "realistic" by simply allowing our shots to go in when the percentage dips below the realistic range, and essentially putting a lid on the rim if it gets too high. I've talked about this a bit in other threads and a lot of people have dismissed the idea and believe that the shooting is fine the way that it is.

I ran a little experiment this morning with the Warriors. I played three games of Play Now vs. the CPU, shooting only threes with Curry, Thompson, Durant, and Green. I tracked the release, the openness, the result, and the teams three point percentage at the time of the shot. I shot higher percentage shots when the teams percentage rose above 40% and shot lower percentage shots if it dropped below 35%. I began tracking shots after 10 three point attempts, each game started off making either 3 or 4 attempts putting me at 30% or 40%.

Rather than post the entire list of shots, two trends happened in all three games. The lower percentage shots when the teams 3 point percentage was below 35% went in at a higher rate than that of the high percentage shots when above 40%.

I shot 6/26 (23%) when the percentage was above 40% and 16/28 (57%) when the percentage was below 35%. I also had more green lights when contested and below 35% than I did open and over 40%.

The other thing that I found interesting, is that I shot 91% overall on open shots and 21% on contested shots where the shooters foot was on the line, resulting in a two rather than a three. This essentially shows that success of the longest of twos and the shortest of threes are calculated differently.

This leads me to believe that control of our three point success lies purely within the game and not with how we achieve it. I've seen a lot of people arguing that they like how the percentages are "accurate" but I feel that it's a very broken way for it to be implemented. Would love to hear thoughts or ways we can further the experiment.



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[raiderphantom]

I believe it’s been this way for a very long time. I’ve used real player % for years and I know if I’m 0-4 with a player I’m probably making that 5th shot even though he should be cold.

[The 24th Letter]

Had a PNO game I actuslly just posted about that would go against this theory:

I was 4/10 for 3 going into the 4th quarter

Hill went 4/4 from 3

I also hit a 3 with whoever the Kings back up SG is, his name escapes me....but that would take things far beyond a realistic %...

Ended up 5/6

There has also been a long going theory that 2k wont let you hit consecutive 3s with one player, or get hot.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x65p3ou



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[xCoachDx]

Quote: Originally Posted by The 24th Letter

Had a PNO game I actuslly just posted about that would go against this theory: I was 4/10 for 3 going into the 4th quarter Hill went 4/4 from 3 I also hit a 3 with whoever the Kings back up SG is, his name escapes me....but that would take things far beyond a realistic %... Ended up 5/6 There has also been a long going theory that 2k wont let you hit consecutive 3s with one player, or get hot. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x65p3ou Sent from my SM-G955U using Operation Sports mobile app

I have seen something like this happen once before. He finished something like 7/11 from 3 as a team. EXTREMELY rare that I've seen elevated numbers like that from a team or a player.


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[jeebs9]

Quote: Originally Posted by The 24th Letter

Had a PNO game I actuslly just posted about that would go against this theory: I was 4/10 for 3 going into the 4th quarter Hill went 4/4 from 3 I also hit a 3 with whoever the Kings back up SG is, his name escapes me....but that would take things far beyond a realistic %... Ended up 5/6 There has also been a long going theory that 2k wont let you hit consecutive 3s with one player, or get hot. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x65p3ou Sent from my SM-G955U using Operation Sports mobile app

I'm seeing the same thing. I was just playing with Run TMC and 98 Jazz. Chris Mullins was 3-4, Tim Hardway was 2-3 and Stockon was 1-3 Hornacek was 4-4.

Sidenote: Love The music! Lol

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[redsfan4life]

Yep if I'm ever 0/4 on 3's I'm pulling from 40 feet and getting green lights on the next attempt. Great basketball.

[aakaido]

Quote: Originally Posted by The 24th Letter

Had a PNO game I actuslly just posted about that would go against this theory: I was 4/10 for 3 going into the 4th quarter Hill went 4/4 from 3 I also hit a 3 with whoever the Kings back up SG is, his name escapes me....but that would take things far beyond a realistic %... Ended up 5/6 There has also been a long going theory that 2k wont let you hit consecutive 3s with one player, or get hot. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x65p3ou Sent from my SM-G955U using Operation Sports mobile app

Sorry for not adding anything of substance, but I gotta ask: Dude what is this song in the background? I gotta have that lol.

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[The 24th Letter]

Quote: Originally Posted by jeebs9

I'm seeing the same thing. I was just playing with Run TMC and 98 Jazz. Chris Mullins was 3-4, Tim Hardway was 2-3 and Stockon was 1-3 Hornacek was 4-4. Sidenote: Love The music! Lol Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Yeah, same with this off line HOF game...with a non 3pt shooting team at that...

Spoiler

If anything, seems like the 3 point shooting is usually on the higher side in my experience..

Quote: Originally Posted by aakaido

Sorry for not adding anything of substance, but I gotta ask: Dude what is this song in the background? I gotta have that lol. Sent from my SM-G925T using Operation Sports mobile app

It's Nash's SFV theme..

When I upload to DM I just use whatever is on my PS4...and somehow I have that soundtrack....

It is a pretty cool song though, haha