04-24-2012, 12:11 PM
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#21
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Pro
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The Tack Adams (English 2012) Draft Review and Updated Guide
Review: And now, back to the show. :-)
The great English path’s initial outburst of talent fades significantly in the 2012 draft – only twenty-six players have the talent to be truly great. Within that elite group, about 20% have durability issues, and others have less-than-elite characteristics for the position they play. The number of true stars ends up closer to fifteen. Like the 2011 draft, this is for filling gaps in your roster from the stars you picked up in ’09 and ’10. The drought of quality running backs continues, and this is a bad year at DE as well. - Quarterbacks: There are two good QBs available this draft, both outside the first round. Markell Martinez is the bell-cow: a 6’6” pocket passer who’s unlikely to ever have a pass batted down at the line of scrimmage. [Rutgers] isn’t quite that tall, but is a very talented prima-donna available late (6th-undrafted). Marcus Morris won’t stay healthy, and the rest are busts.
- Halfbacks: A bad group. Neither [New Mex. St.] nor [E. Kentucky] have the stamina to be more than committee backs, and neither can break tackles worth squat. Luke Jones is a huge bust: an asthmatic fragile fumbler. [Illinois] is a curiosity, built more like a 3-4 OLB; he can be a depth or rotational back; probably the most balanced and durable option in the entire group is [La Salle], a decent #2 who would perform beyond expectations for a good coaching staff. [Richmond] brings up the rear as usual; everyone else comes with warning labels.
- Fullbacks: Very little. [Air Force] can block - with a running start. Very much the lesser option to Barone and earlier fullbacks.
- Wideouts: No named players, but a good group: you could restock your entire WR roster in this draft and not miss much production-wise. [USC] and [NC State] usually both go first-round; given my predilection for “tall ball”, I see the latter as the better pick. ([NC State] usually goes later in the round anyway, so you’re better off with him in two ways.) But the prize of the class is definitely [Florida State]: big, fast, smart enough, durable... he’s as close as I’ve seen to Julio Jones in this path. He’s a big Bellows without return skills, an excellent deep-threat and split-end candidate, and a nice guy to boot. He’s available in the second round, possibly even at the top of the third. Among the lesser lights, [Florida A&M] is only 6’0” and usually goes undrafted; he’s a capable fourth receiver on your depth chart. [John Carroll] is made for tall ball, but isn’t quite as good in traffic as [Florida A&M], while [Idaho] is only 5’10” and is in no way that I recall superior to [Florida A&M]. Last and least in some ways, [North Dakota] arrives at 6'3" and is otherwise similar to [John Carroll].
- Tight Ends: I’m not crazy about any of these guys. [N. Car. AT&T] is a decent receiver, a poor blocker, and a jerk. [Delaware St.] is as he always is; [USF] will be drafted too highly and not perform well enough; you’d be better off waiting for [Mid Tenn St.] in the later rounds for a #2 (or #3) TE. In some ways the best blocker of the group is [Navy], but he’s short and not much of a receiver - better suited to an H-back role.
- Offensive Tackles: This is another bad group, with only two real starters. [Alabama] is a first-round pick and deserves it: he’s not Selvin Lankford or Javon Jackson, but he’s in the upper echelon of left tackles - especially speed-wise. The sleeper and only real alternative is [Wash St.], who is a talented jerk and not physically elite. [Nebraska] is a high-round bust. At right tackle, the premier guy is [USC], but he’s only 6’2, a knucklehead and would be better off playing guard. [Iowa] has some starter skills, but is also a jerk and given the excellent right tackles of past years may not be worth your time or pick. 5'11" [Appalach. St.] is another conversion-to-center candidate, usually undrafted.
- Guards: No names, but two decent starters. Left guard is where it’s at: sleeper [Buffalo] is the best of the group, IMO - though not the fastest, he’s fast enough for LG and a good egg. [Texas A&M] is a high-round pick if you need a faster guard, but by this point you’ve probably got Tobi Crisp and/or Trae Harris under contract, so why bother? At RG everyone is slow; [LSU] is also a jerk and a high-round pick, while [Idaho State] is slower yet.
- Centers: [Arizona St.] is the best pick-value in this bunch and a good guy. If he doesn’t start, he’ll be a high-quality backup for a few years and won’t complain.
- Defensive Tackles: Two headliners and some depth. Martellus Battle is a big fella and may be better at end than tackle - but he’s a significant injury risk, so you’d better have a good trainer. Earl Whitaker is definitely a better end than tackle, easily the best DE in the class. Depth-wise the best of the rest is [Temple] in the late rounds: [Tennessee] isn’t as good as past tackles from his college, while [Oklahoma] is a jerk. [Nebraska] is a high-round bust.
- Ends: A bad group nearly across the board - not learning wise, but athletically awful. The one unusually good athlete is [Texas], but he may never learn your playbook. There’s always [UNLV] at LE... other than that, bleah.
- Outside Backers: Three names with marginal depth. Jeremy Horne is another train-your-trainer candidate; low INJ, high TGH. Nice guy, cinch to re-sign, built for 3-4 defenses. Josh Bench is his counterpart at ROLB without the injury issues, but he’ll be more expensive to sign and re-sign. Tevin Brew can go in the later rounds, or as high as somewhere in Round 2, and is quite talented. Depth-wise your best bets are [Wyoming] early and [Northwestern] late. Everyone else is athletically awful.
- Inside Backers: The King of the Inside Linebackers is here: Tack Adams is The Man and a cinch to re-sign, but usually goes in the top five. [Oklahoma] is radically undersized with some speed and skills - if you run a 4-3 with two big DTs, he can work for you. You could also shift him to OLB in a 4-3. [VMI] is as he always is.
- Cornerbacks: Good, but not tall. 5'9" [Wyoming] is a tough little SOB, but he’ll contest few of the high-point lasers this game’s QBs throw and may truly work only in a Cover-2 scheme. 5’10” [East. Mich] is a jerk and an injury risk. 5’11" [California] is a good player with a good attitude, despite the scouting report, and probably the best overall corner in the class. He can go undrafted, but is worth a late-round pick to have him cheap for a couple of years. 6’0” [Alabama] can’t press; 5’10” [Michigan] can’t cover zone well enough; and I have no idea what the designers were thinking when they made [Rutgers].
- Safeties: In safeties not “named”, sleeper FS [Brian Dawkins Buffalo] is really darn good: a hitter, quick to develop, fast, and tall-ish. Though he lacks the built-in ball skills of Prince Justin, he’s got nearly everything else and is better in run support. He may not be King of the Free Safeties, but he’s in the royal family somewhere. Jamie Nelson is strictly a zone-scheme fit, so if you run a Tampa-2 or Blitzburgh scheme consider him. Sleeper Marcus Wayns is talented but short - like Jamie, not suitable for man coverage because in Marcus’ case bigger and better TEs will post up on him all day. [W. Michigan] is a good guy, typically undrafted - I’d take him over Wayns.
Conclusions: The best of this draft are QBs Martinez and [Rutgers], WR [Florida State] [NC State] and [USC], LT [Alabama], C [Arizona St.], Earl Whitaker, OLBs Bench and Brew, ILB Adams, CBs [California] and [Wyoming], FS [Buffalo], and SS [W. Michigan]. The next tier includes the remaining "names", all of which have at least one significant downside to picking them, via on-field potential or personality. Like 2011, it’s a draft with some talent, but not fabulously wealthy: pick your guys with care.
Players with Balanced POT >=90: 26
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When I get back at it, I'll let you know.
