Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

[ebongreen]

(First outlined here, now expanded)

Game-planning for me isn't just a practice thing and Adam Schefter's talking head.

When I look at the Tuesday scouting report, I mostly ignore the down-&-distance plays specified. What I find useful are:

• The percentage of run/pass on down-and-distance. Are you playing the pass-happy Cowboys or the run-first Steelers?.
  
• The percentage each play gets called, regardless of down. Plays that you see 3% or better are probably mastered and they're favorites of the opposing playbook.
  
• Look at their favorite run plays. Do they primarily run between the tackles or do they attack the edges? Do they run a Colts/Texans/Broncos-style zone blocking scheme, or are they a power-pulling team like the Giants? Do they run a lot of counters? Zone blitzes toward or near the offense's point-of-attack is a great way to foil a running play; if the back redirects, the zone defenders away from the point can come downhill for the tackle.
  
• Look at the pass patterns of the favorite plays. Are they primarily designed to defeat zone (route combinations to defeat Tampa-2, for example) or man (comebacks, double-moves)? Is it a West-Coast-style quick-passing attack or does the playbook run more deep routes?
  
  If they love curls and comebacks, have your corners or linebackers lurk in curl zones or lateral hook zones. Tampa-2 was born to defeat WC passing, so be able to flood the short and intermediate zones against Holmgren's Seahawks. If the plays favor deep passing, use man underneath with two deep safeties or play your secondary in deep thirds or quarters zone coverage, with linebackers arrayed underneath.
  
• Look at the number of backs that block on their pass plays. Do they use backs in pass-pro or are they sent out as receivers? If the backs block, tend to cover or zone-blitz. If they receive, tend to man-blitz.
  
• Look for play-action passes. How common are they - any in the favorites group (3% or more)? Which ones do they run - inside or bootleg, crossing routes or deep? Remember the AI linebackers play run-first, and man-blitzing against PA is a virtual guarantee you're gonna get burned, so your secondary will have to be in position to prevent a quick throw. Again, zone blitzing or just plain zone coverage helps a lot against play-action passes.

Then it's on to defense. What do I remember of this team's defensive scheme from the last time I played them? You know your division foes pretty well, but maybe they changed coaches or coordinators in the off-season. (You did look at the off-season staff recap, right?) If/when Rod Marinelli is fired by the Lions, chances are they won't run Tampa-2 anymore, so be ready for surprises the first time you play any team in a given season.

Once I've checked the scouting report, I look at the other team's injury list and depth chart. Who among their preferred starters is banged up and won't show on Sunday? Is Darren Sharper still the preferred starter at SS, even though his speed rating is barely 80 now? Has Andre Woodson taken over from Jon Kitna at quarterback yet? Can their secondary actually cover, or are they completions waiting to happen - especially in nickel or dime? Who are their game-breakers, and who are their weak links?

Information is power - the power to crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

[Pass_The_Cows]

I don't know if there's still money in the Strategy Guide business with all the free info on the internet nowadays but if there is you really should look into it.

[ebongreen]

Aw, thanks dude! But for this game and this board, it's a labor of love.

On the other hand, if EA or someone else wants to pay me absurd amounts of money to be a playtester, I'd think about it really hard.

[Tweeg]

Quote: Originally Posted by ebongreen

Aw, thanks dude! But for this game and this board, it's a labor of love. On the other hand, if EA or someone else wants to pay me absurd amounts of money to be a playtester, I'd think about it really hard.

EA has playtesters?

*This is meant to be a one time punch line. Please do not ban me or yell at me.

[Winnipeg59]

I too would like to thank you for this thread.
While there are many ways to play the game and various strategies to employ, hearing about other options or better ways to do what you normally do is always good!

Keep it coming!!!

[ebongreen]

(Documented by me here)

RFA doesn't always work as designed. In theory, every player who was a third-round-or-lower draft choice goes to RFA at the end of his three-year rookie contract. As a GM, you set a tender on him requiring draft choice compensation if another team signs him to an offer sheet, and you have the option to match the best offer he receives. If you match, you keep the player; if you allow another team's offer to stand, you get one or more draft choices in return.

For highly-rated players at valued positions, this works as designed. But there is a hidden scale weighting the value of positions, and there are only so many slots for bidding on free agents between the FA signing period; low-rated players at skill positions and highly-rated players at positions like fullback never come up for bidding or matching. Because they don't, they're automatically allocated to the great unsigned free-agent pool and receive training camp invites (usually for other teams) in pre-season.

In addition, any RFA loses his accumulated play knowledge during the bidding process, so even if you opt to retain him you'll need to retrain him next year. He'll essentially be a highly-paid street FA, a virtual stranger to your playbook.

To offset this, I recommend that you look at the FA Preview after the Super Bowl each year and note any RFAs-to-be on your squad. Cut-&-resign in the Offseason week - the week immediately after Pro Bowl Week - the ones you absolutely want to keep for next year and sign to longer-term contracts in-season, and only consign to RFA the ones you're willing to let go. This should preserve those players' play knowledge as well, and let you pick up the next year virtually intact.

As an alternative, you could do this following a player's second season rather than his third, and simulate negotiating an extension before RFA were ever to apply to that player - you know, like real teams do in real life.

The downside to both of these is that if you fail to negotiate an extension, the player will walk or require a franchise tag, and you'll get no draft choice compensation.

This workaround is subject to catastrophic cheeze - you could do this with your entire roster every year and never sign anyone to a long-term deal. It's a huge and game-breaking exploit if you abuse it. If that's how you roll, I don't want to hear about it, okay?

The last way to avoid losing players that you "should" keep through RFA I'll discuss in my next post.

[Winnipeg59]

Quote:

Since the RFA process erases play knowledge, even if you opt to retain a player by matching the offer, it's a significant advantage to not re-train your re-signed starters.

A follow-up, if I may...
Would you explain the statement above. I've never really thought anything of this before. I read it as once a player is "protected" as one of your RFA's, they suddenly forget???
So even if he was on your team, and then you match an offer from another team he has suddenly lost his memory of your plays?

[ebongreen]

Quote: Originally Posted by Winnipeg59

A follow-up, if I may... Would you explain the statement above. I've never really thought anything of this before. I read it as once a player is "protected" as one of your RFA's, they suddenly forget??? So even if he was on your team, and then you match an offer from another team he has suddenly lost his memory of your plays?

From one of the developers. RFA (or any significant time spent in free agency) = mindwipe.