Do scouts really know what they're talking about?

[Xtra]

You hear it all the time, scouts that thought this guy would be good but turns out to be a bust (JaMarcus Russel, Ryan Leaf), yet some players that do become great are drafted low or even undrafted (Tom Brady, Warren Moon, Derrick Coleman).

So do you think that scouts need to come up with a new formula to analyze these players, so we can have the right players drafted at the right spots?

[SPTO]

I think scouts generally get it right, the problem is that sometimes scouts get enamored by the physical traits to the exclusion of some of the subtle things like personal background/past behavior. In the case of Tom Brady he was VERY skinny and scrawny and fought and clawed his way to becoming a starter for Michigan. I think that scouts just saw him as a guy who was very average and couldn't do much but obviously he did have something there. Remember, this was before we started seeing some shorter QBs start to become effective in the NFL.

I do think you need to throw out Warren Moon though as a TON of teams liked what he brought but because of ingrained racism and attitudes regarding blacks and the QB position most of those teams said he should change positions. To Moon's credit he said "hell no" to that and went to Canada to prove that he could play the QB position and parlayed that into a great NFL career.

I think that scouting is one of the great human elements of football and teams with very good scouting departments usually fare a LOT better than other teams in the long run. Even teams which have trouble getting free agents can get a leg up if their scouting department finds the right players. Just look at the Bills last year, just about all of their draft picks played a role for them and have very bright futures.

[bigeastbumrush]

Many scouts don't have a voice when it comes to draft day.

It's usually the GM, coach and sometimes owner getting involved.

Also, some teams don't budget much for their scouting and the results of that show.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigeastbumrush

It's usually the GM, coach and sometimes owner getting involved.

I find that the teams that draft well usually have a GM and/or coach with a strong scouting background already so the scouts may not say much on draft day but a lot of what they put together is used in some capacity.

Of course, you also get teams like the Cowboys where it's mostly throwing darts at a board.

[Segagendude]

Watching shows like "Brady 6" and the "Top Ten Undrafted Players" makes me wonder that sometimes...

[dsallupinyaarea]

I'm of the opinion that no one knows what they hell they're doing in the draft and it's just one big lottery. Over time, the good and bad picks all even out.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by Segagendude

Watching shows like "Brady 6" and the "Top Ten Undrafted Players" makes me wonder that sometimes...

It just makes the teams that pick up those hidden gems smarter IMO.

Remember this, Joe Montana wasn't a lock to be a top draft choice and was actually going to play in the CFL but Bill Walsh did some back room talks with Leo Cahill (the coach/GM of the Toronto Argos) and was able to draft Montana.

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

It just makes the teams that pick up those hidden gems smarter IMO. Remember this, Joe Montana wasn't a lock to be a top draft choice and was actually going to play in the CFL but Bill Walsh did some back room talks with Leo Cahill (the coach/GM of the Toronto Argos) and was able to draft Montana.

What does that mean?

Tried to do a search and found nothing about that. Was he the property of Toronto for some reason before the draft?

What does back room talks have to do with it? Seems to me if he was drafted to play in the NFL he would be the rights of the team that drafted him, not the other way around?