4th & 1 Discussion

[Blzer]

(I was typing up a thread and my browser automatically refreshed and deleted everything for no reason. Going to re-type something much shorter out of sheer frustration.)

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I personally feel teams don't go for it enough on 4th down when there is a yard or less to go, particularly around midfield and the goal line. I understand the consequences of falling short in these scenarios, but I also think there are points left on the table that can pretty easily be obtained with a decent success rate.

Granted, I'm not the one who has tracked the data on this, which is why I'm not an NFL head coach and which is probably also why they don't do it very much. But by impulse alone, I really feel like greed should consume those who see this as a positive opportunity. I mean we do it in video games so often despite the success rates, even if we play for realism/true challenge, or in online play.

Does anyone else have more insight on why this just isn't called upon more often?

Oh, and I think there really should be more fakes too.

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Going for it on 4th and 1 and not getting it brings questions.

Punting or kicking a FG doesn't (usually).

[ProfessaPackMan]

4th & 1 Discussion

This is a thread tailor made thread for my man D's.

[bkrich83]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Depends on field position, time on the clock, confidence in your defense, confidence in your offense to make the play, etc.

There's no cookie cutter answer here. It's real easy to say teams should go for it more when you've never had to call a game and your livelihood doesn't depend on it.

[gopher_guy]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

If you're losing or in a tie game, and you're past the 40 yard line, I'd go for it almost every time on 4th and 1.

[RockinDaMike]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Depends who you are playing too, I'll do it to the Raiders all day but no way against Manning.

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[KMRblue1027]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

IIRC Mathematically once you're on your own 45ish or so or beyond you pretty much should always go on 4 and short, unless up by a lot.

[elgreazy1]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

While I agree one needs to factor in field position, personnel, time left in the game, etc. I also think the more you go for it on 4th down the more common place it becomes to your team. When the big moments come, you're team will be ready for it because they've done it so many times before. I know that sounds silly, but it's true. It's just like practice: practice makes everything feel like second nature. *insert Iverson practice video*

[Cardot]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Fans and commentators will kill a coach for an aggressive call that goes wrong. But for whatever reason, they will give a pass for an equally conservative call that goes awry. It drives me crazy....especially in this day of high powered offenses.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

(I was typing up a thread and my browser automatically refreshed and deleted everything for no reason. Going to re-type something much shorter out of sheer frustration.)

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I personally feel teams don't go for it enough on 4th down when there is a yard or less to go, particularly around midfield and the goal line. I understand the consequences of falling short in these scenarios, but I also think there are points left on the table that can pretty easily be obtained with a decent success rate.

Granted, I'm not the one who has tracked the data on this, which is why I'm not an NFL head coach and which is probably also why they don't do it very much. But by impulse alone, I really feel like greed should consume those who see this as a positive opportunity. I mean we do it in video games so often despite the success rates, even if we play for realism/true challenge, or in online play.

Does anyone else have more insight on why this just isn't called upon more often?

Oh, and I think there really should be more fakes too.

I said this when we were talking about it in the Off Topic thread so it's interesting that you bring up video games. It's been a while but I remember playing the "go for it on 4th and short all the time" people. The experience often ended with me putting up lots of point quickly and them pulling the plug on the game before halftime.

It's like doubling down on a bet over and over. You can pull all the odds you want, but they can't account for the levels of consequences during the times it doesn't work. EXTREME example here but lets say it's 4th and inches on your own 5 yard line. Even if it's successful 99% of the time, in that situation being in the 1% would be devastating.

Again, that's an extreme example, but adjusting any number of variables to a "baseline" that will surely be different based on the team, opponent, score, etc, etc... very long list before we even get to coaching tendencies alone.

[SPTO]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Personally, on a 4th & 1 (or less) on my 45 yard line and onward i'd automatically call for a QB sneak. In the CFL the backup QB for just about every team is essentially there for that role alone. So if i'm a coach I bring in my backup tell him to dive ahead and I bet 90% of the time we'd convert.

Of course, that'd be looked upon as a bit unsporting but screw it, i'm here to win not lose.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Personally, on a 4th & 1 (or less) on my 45 yard line and onward i'd automatically call for a QB sneak. In the CFL the backup QB for just about every team is essentially there for that role alone. So if i'm a coach I bring in my backup tell him to dive ahead and I bet 90% of the time we'd convert.

Of course, that'd be looked upon as a bit unsporting but screw it, i'm here to win not lose.

I've watched Flacco try and fail the last 3 times in a row I believe, and the Ravens oline is actually decent. How's the oline on your hypothetical team? How's the D line and MLB of the team they're playing? The backup QB comes in so you pretty much know what's coming... it's just not that simple.

[SPTO]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I've watched Flacco try and fail the last 3 times in a row I believe, and the Ravens oline is actually decent. How's the oline on your hypothetical team? How's the D line and MLB of the team they're playing? The backup QB comes in so you pretty much know what's coming... it's just not that simple.

Well yeah, i'm simplifying but you can definitely teach the O-line to specifically block for short yardage situations like that or you can do something crazy like fake the sneak and have the QB throw for a short pass. There are also a variety of other ways to pick up the 1st down too. Once a coach/team has a reputation for taking those risks you can definitely draw the opposing team offsides with a hard count as well.

I know I exaggerated there but I think sometimes coaches are a bit too conservative and don't take enough chances. Look, i'm not asking for a Barry Switzer situation where he went for it on a 4th and short situation not once but TWICE on the same possession/down.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Well yeah, i'm simplifying but you can definitely teach the O-line to specifically block for short yardage situations like that or you can do something crazy like fake the sneak and have the QB throw for a short pass. There are also a variety of other ways to pick up the 1st down too. Once a coach/team has a reputation for taking those risks you can definitely draw the opposing team offsides with a hard count as well.

I know I exaggerated there but I think sometimes coaches are a bit too conservative and don't take enough chances. Look, i'm not asking for a Barry Switzer situation where he went for it on a 4th and short situation not once but TWICE on the same possession/down.

Deviating from just a QB sneak decreases the odds of completing it, especially when we're talking about passing the ball.

I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate bc I feel like the general thought is "just go for it, the stats say you're more likely to get it" but when you really break it all down and look at every scenario it's very far from being that simple. AND nobody is considering the consequences of not making it. You may say "if I'm at my 45..." which assumes the other team won't be in scoring position already. But even if we use that number, with today's kickers the other team is one first down away from scoring position. Meanwhile a good punt could pin them within the 5 or 10 yard line, limiting their play calling, possibly forcing a safety, most likely forcing them to punt giving you a chance to get the ball back in a better position to score than you had at 4th an 1 at your 45.

[gopher_guy]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Deviating from just a QB sneak decreases the odds of completing it, especially when we're talking about passing the ball.

I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate bc I feel like the general thought is "just go for it, the stats say you're more likely to get it" but when you really break it all down and look at every scenario it's very far from being that simple. AND nobody is considering the consequences of not making it. You may say "if I'm at my 45..." which assumes the other team won't be in scoring position already. But even if we use that number, with today's kickers the other team is one first down away from scoring position. Meanwhile a good punt could pin them within the 5 or 10 yard line, limiting their play calling, possibly forcing a safety, most likely forcing them to punt giving you a chance to get the ball back in a better position to score than you had at 4th an 1 at your 45.

For me, it's just not about the offense's chance to convert, it's also about the opposing team's chance of turning it into points.

I mean, if you're at the 50 yard line, and you go for it and fail, they get the ball at the 50. Now, if you punt from your own 50, best case scenario, you pin them inside the 10 or the 5. What are the odds of doing that? 50%? The other half the time you either punt it in the endzone, or they fair catch/return it to the 15-25 yard line?

That's like a 30 yard difference, I'm guessing there's not a huge difference in the there's not a huge change in the chances of scoring from the 50 vs. the 20. That high school coach who never punts had the numbers, don't remember them.

In that scenario, where I'm at the 50, and losing the game, I think I'd rather take the risk and keep the ball if I convert.