4th & 1 Discussion

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I swear I didn't know the result of the drive after. I didn't watch the game. I flipped to the game, saw that decision, made an "omg tweet" and flipped back to basketball. My 1st post didn't even reference how the game played out. All of my posts were based on my assumption that the Saints would do...... well what they did lol. I really try not to be results oriented about this stuff because that truly isn't fair to the coaches.

I believe you man, I was breaking it down because you said that early... going back to the broad topic, my opinion is that something like this is one of a million situations that need to be evaluated individually. Obviously this is 4th and 14 and not 4th and short, but you're right that there are even situations like this that make sense going for it. I don't think a discussion can be had grouping every situation together.

[Hooe]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower?

Basically that's my question.

If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount?

EDIT:

Alright so I've found this lovely thingajigger:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph

We're basically both right.

(If I'm reading this right) If you go to the point in the graph (toward the end, upper right) where Gano kicks the FG, the Saints have a 92% chance to win the game. After the FG, they still have a 92% chance to win the game. Rivera didn't win the game but he didn't lose the game either. There is value in kicking the can in that situation. If he goes for it and fails, I suspect the Saints win expectancy is basically 99%.

This situation appears to be a matter of how much risk you can stomach on one play. Me, I'd take my chance on that one play because I feel like too many dominoes would have to fall right for you to win going the other route. I don't think there's a right or wrong here.

Apologies to Ron Rivera if he's reading this.

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability.

On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%.

Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

[rdnk]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability.

On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%.

Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

The win% split is +9/-5 on going for it. Conversion rate of 4th and 15+ is around 12%. I'm not getting enough value there to go for it. I'd have to be converting 4th and 15 around 33% to go for it there and if my team could do that, I probably wouldn't be down 21-7.

Kirk Ferentz would probably punt, however.

[kingkilla56]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

How do you calculate win probability over the course of a game?

[ScoobySnax]

4th & 1 Discussion

How do you calculate win percentage?

Wins/Total Games Played

EDIT: Nvr mind. Y'all on some deep ish in here. Lol

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability.

On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%.

Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

I have no idea how to calculate this to this degree. Did you happen to calculate what the chance was after kicking the field goal?

If scoring a touchdown left them at 17% I'm very curious to see how low the FG left them at.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Wins/Total Games Played

EDIT: Nvr mind. Y'all on some deep ish in here. Lol

Earlier I said to myself that someone will only see that post and take it entirely out of context.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I'm going to try and watch for all 4th & 1 plays this Sunday.

Chargers just failed against Miami's defense on their 20 yard line. That's an example (that entire situation involved and no active RB1 or RB2) where a field goal has to be a given. They had downfield trouble that entire drive, though they made it down there it was on spurt plays and not progressively.

Three points given away and Miami given the ball. Not to say Miami will score here though, either. I just think that's too far away from the end zone still to go for it.

I only hope McCoy didn't read this thread in making his decision.

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I'm going to try and watch for all 4th & 1 plays this Sunday.

Chargers just failed against Miami's defense on their 20 yard line. That's an example (that entire situation involved and no active RB1 or RB2) where a field goal has to be a given. They had downfield trouble that entire drive, though they made it down there it was on spurt plays and not progressively.

Three points given away and Miami given the ball. Not to say Miami will score here though, either. I just think that's too far away from the end zone still to go for it.

I only hope McCoy didn't read this thread in making his decision.

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

4 point swing.. gotta think the Dolphins would've scored a TD after a kickoff as well considering the field position was almost exactly the same (assuming a touchback)

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

Welp, I guess that all but confirms I made that right call there. Once again, too far out to be taking that kind of risk, and not at all the right setup.

The worst part about it is he probably isn't allowed to go for it again the rest of the game without his job then being on the line if he doesn't convert. Ya'll have said it yourselves in this thread... aggression leads to questions needing be answered. Too bad this isn't a more accepted norm.

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Welp, I guess that all but confirms I made that right call there. Once again, too far out to be taking that kind of risk, and not at all the right setup.

The worst part about it is he probably isn't allowed to go for it again the rest of the game without his job then being on the line if he doesn't convert. Ya'll have said it yourselves in this thread... aggression leads to questions needing be answered. Too bad this isn't a more accepted norm.

Yep, they just punted on 4th and 1/2 a yard. Different situation as the ball was on their own 38ish, but Miami has the ball on their 40, so a 22 yard difference. Let's see how long it takes for them to make that difference up.

EDIT: 2 plays and Miami is at the Charger 32

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

4 point swing.. gotta think the Dolphins would've scored a TD after a kickoff as well considering the field position was almost exactly the same (assuming a touchback)

I don't have to assume anything if it doesn't help prove my point

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Eagles went for it on 4th and 1 and converted from inside the 30. Turned out to end up as a field goal anyway (pending?) but gave them a few more downs to score.

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Dallas goes for it on 4th and inches from the 34 down 4 points and fails.

Would've been a 51 yard FG, well within Bailey's range.

Let's see what happens.

UPDATE: Arizona drives down for a TD.