4th & 1 Discussion
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
4th and 1 to seal the game for Baltimore tonight.
Probably less bold of a decision to day than it was ten years agoComment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
Since this thread started, here are the number of 4th down attempts per game per team (year-by-year), plus the total amounts for that actual season and their conversion rates.
2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.162 att/gm (595 total, 47.9%)
2020: 1.285 att/gm (658 total, 55.0%)
2021: 1.458 att/gm (793 total*, 53.1%)
* 17-game season
This has really been climbing at a steady rate.
I'm calling it now that we're going to see 1.646 attempts per game per team next season, nearly double how much we were seeing since I first began pondering over it.Last edited by Blzer; 01-10-2022, 05:25 PM.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
I’m cool with going for it when you’re in no man’s land where it’s too far for a FG and a punt won’t net you much yardage, but I’d have a really hard time ever deciding to pass up points and go for it instead of kicking a FG unless it’s an unusual scenario like awful weather or its a shootout where nobody’s defense can get a stopComment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
I’m cool with going for it when you’re in no man’s land where it’s too far for a FG and a punt won’t net you much yardage, but I’d have a really hard time ever deciding to pass up points and go for it instead of kicking a FG unless it’s an unusual scenario like awful weather or its a shootout where nobody’s defense can get a stopComment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
We're slowly getting to the point where, unlike before when you'd have to find a special circumstance to justify going for it, now you have to find a special circumstance to not go for it.
Most of the time it's sensible to go for it.Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
Although an aggressive choice that doesn't work out is still scorched much more than a safe decision that fails. Troy Aikman seems to always want to kick it on 4th down (which I find odd for a QB). If the team goes on 4th or for a 2pt conversion and fails, Troy will bring it up over and over for the rest of the game. If it succeeds, he won't mention it.
All I know is that when I have a rooting interest against a team with a good offense, I am generally relieved when then bring out the punt/FG team on 4th and short.Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
Although an aggressive choice that doesn't work out is still scorched much more than a safe decision that fails. Troy Aikman seems to always want to kick it on 4th down (which I find odd for a QB). If the team goes on 4th or for a 2pt conversion and fails, Troy will bring it up over and over for the rest of the game. If it succeeds, he won't mention it.
All I know is that when I have a rooting interest against a team with a good offense, I am generally relieved when then bring out the punt/FG team on 4th and short.Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
Since this thread started, here are the number of 4th down attempts per game per team (year-by-year), plus the total amounts for that actual season and their conversion rates.
2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.162 att/gm (595 total, 47.9%)
2020: 1.285 att/gm (658 total, 55.0%)
2021: 1.458 att/gm (793 total*, 53.1%)
* 17-game season
This has really been climbing at a steady rate.
I'm calling it now that we're going to see 1.646 attempts per game per team next season, nearly double how much we were seeing since I first began pondering over it.
Discounting Thursday's game, teams have been 172/357 (48.2% success rate) on fourth down. This is 1.313 attempts per game per team. If you put it on the above list that number would rank second behind 2021, but I expected the trend to go up. Of course, what is not being taken into effect is the distance of those downs and the total number of plays from scrimmage so far (be it overall or comparing the number of fourth downs to all other downs).
One comparison I can make however is the number of fourth down attempts versus punts/kicks. This isn't a perfect stat since they don't always attempt field goals on fourth down, but fourth down attempts make up about 18.1% of all plays involving fourth downs and/or punts/FG's, whereas in 2021 this number was around 20.4%. I think that ratio falls about in line with the lesser number of attempts as well, showing that some teams have been much more hesitant to go for it this year. I'm frustrated watching the Buccaneers have 4th & 2, punt it/kick a field goal, and not be within arm's reach of a victory on their last drive.
Anyway, interesting numbers so far. I think we'll see some more attempts in the tail half of the season as teams figure out their offenses more and have more dire needs for victories, but I don't think it'll bump up to my prediction at all. Given that they are also much less successful this year on fourth down, I guess it is expected you'll see less attempts as well.Last edited by Blzer; 11-11-2022, 01:24 PM.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
We're still in that weird space that metrics say to go for it and most people acknowledge that, but failing to convert leads to harsh criticism. Harbough was criticized hard for his 4th down decisions early in the year.
I think that could result in a drop in 4th down attempts for the Ravens moving forward.
Its like playing blackjack and doubling on 11. You could do that, the book says that is the right move and I could know that. And yet if it fails I still criticize you for doing it. Thats where we are with 4th down conversion attempts.Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
End of year update:
2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.162 att/gm (595 total, 47.9%)
2020: 1.285 att/gm (658 total, 55.0%)
2021: 1.458 att/gm (793 total*, 53.1%)
2022: 1.356 att/gm (735 total*, 50.7%)
* 17-game season (though due to the Buffalo-Cincinnati game suspension, two less team games played in 2022)
There seemed to be a slight uptick in the second-half of the season, but still not nearly enough to show what last year was doing. Granted, I felt more times than ever this year there were fourth down plays that were nullified due to penalties, but even if that occurred 20 times that still doesn't bring it anywhere near what 2022 showed.
I think we can chalk this more up to 2021 being a crazy year for them rather than seeing this as a downturn. Plenty of teams are going for it on fourth down, down to the last 'real' play of the regular season with Detroit finishing off Green Bay on that fourth-down pass completion. I'm glad to see it, and hope to continue seeing it in the future.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
With exactly half of the games played so far, in the NFL season we're currently sitting at:
2023: 1.371 att/gm (proj. 746 total*, 48.5%)
Color me surprised that the success rate is slightly lower with the Eagles using the Brotherly Shove this year (76.5% on 4th down overall). Then again, several of those are with them doing it on 3rd down, and a few times that 4th down is from a farther distance.
Teams weighing the success rate down are the Panthers, Cardinals, Colts, Bears, Patriots, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Steelers (34.5% combined). It just goes to show some teams don't have the magic, but then again there are so many lurking variables (distance, 4th quarter comeback attempt, etc.).
Last year we saw a pretty substantial uptick going for it on 4th down in the second half of the season, with slightly more success. Let's see if they can hit that 1.4 att/gm number this year and get back to 50% overall.Last edited by Blzer; 11-09-2023, 02:24 PM.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
End of year update:
2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.162 att/gm (595 total, 47.9%)
2020: 1.285 att/gm (658 total, 55.0%)
2021: 1.458 att/gm (793 total*, 53.1%)
2022: 1.356 att/gm (735 total*, 50.7%)
2023: 1.469 att/gm (799 total*, 51.6%)
* 17-game season (though due to the Buffalo-Cincinnati game suspension, two less team games played in 2022)
Welp, if you've seen this last half of the regular season and paid attention, then you know that they clearly went for fourth down quite a bit, beating midseason projections by 53! That's the kind of football that I like to see. You can see they also became rather successful in the last half of the season as well, comparatively.
This was the most ever attempts in a season, and by virtue also the highest average per game per team. I think there are analytics out there that head coaches get to use now that tell them when they should/shouldn't go for it, so clearly there is an edge to be had by going for it when you can. I can't see it really getting higher than 1.5, but anything is possible.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
Josh Allen and Buffalo went for it on 4th and inches from inside their own end of the field - with a lead - and didn't get criticized. The thinking has definitely moved on this.Bills, Sabres, Illini, Cubs, basically any team that abuses its fanbase and I'm there.Comment
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Re: 4th & 1 Discussion
I do wish some teams had a working strategy on actually snapping the ball on those hard-count plays, though. Like, they know after the second motioning that they do it, or only the quarterback and center are in kahoots when the magic "tap" happens, or something. At some point, defenses just know not to move if their hard-count tactics are so... obvious.Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60Comment
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