4th & 1 Discussion

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

For me, it's just not about the offense's chance to convert, it's also about the opposing team's chance of turning it into points.

I mean, if you're at the 50 yard line, and you go for it and fail, they get the ball at the 50. Now, if you punt from your own 50, best case scenario, you pin them inside the 10 or the 5. What are the odds of doing that? 50%? The other half the time you either punt it in the endzone, or they fair catch/return it to the 15-25 yard line?

That's like a 30 yard difference, I'm guessing there's not a huge difference in the there's not a huge change in the chances of scoring from the 50 vs. the 20. That high school coach who never punts had the numbers, don't remember them.

In that scenario, where I'm at the 50, and losing the game, I think I'd rather take the risk and keep the ball if I convert.

I'd guess there is a huge difference in scoring from the 50 and the 20. From the 50 you are two first downs away from a 47 yard FG attempt... one first down and 5 yards away from an attempt 100% of NFL FG kickers can make. And I don't have numbers but I'd say most punts from around the 50 result in fair catches inside the 20. Closer ones may have more touchbacks, and further ones may have more returns.

I also think the logic should be different for high schools where the differences between the lines should be obvious going in (and if your line dominates you should go for more 4th and 1's). You also don't have many good kickers in HS so the field is "longer" in that respect... and finally, the passing talent is much lower across the board in HS making it harder to turn a 1st down on the 50 into a scoring opportunity than it is in the NFL.

[gopher_guy]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Yeah, this is hard to do without the numbers, since everyone is just guessing.

An article on NFL.com I found after a quick Google says the conversion rate is 72%

If I'm confident in my defense, I think an almost 3/4 chance in my favor is a pretty solid gamble to keep the ball.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Yeah, this is hard to do without the numbers, since everyone is just guessing.

An article on NFL.com I found after a quick Google says the conversion rate is 72%

If I'm confident in my defense, I think an almost 3/4 chance in my favor is a pretty solid gamble to keep the ball.

Is that for all 4th down calls? All 4th and 1 calls? Where on the field? What's the score? Etc, etc. Those numbers can't mean anything without context. And honestly, "confident in my defense" requires context too.

[gopher_guy]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Is that for all 4th down calls? All 4th and 1 calls? Where on the field? What's the score? Etc, etc. Those numbers can't mean anything without context. And honestly, "confident in my defense" requires context too.

4th and 1, 72% conversion rate. Article was from 2008.

I don't know what other context to add to being confident in my defense. If my defense is getting consistently shredded by the offense, I'd probably think twice, and play the field position game, but if I think there's a realistic chance we can hold them to a 3 and out, or maybe just one first down so they'll be attempting a long FG, I'm probably more likely to go for it on 4th and 1.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

4th and 1, 72% conversion rate. Article was from 2008.

I don't know what other context to add to being confident in my defense. If my defense is getting consistently shredded by the offense, I'd probably think twice, and play the field position game, but if I think there's a realistic chance we can hold them to a 3 and out, or maybe just one first down so they'll be attempting a long FG, I'm probably more likely to go for it on 4th and 1.

Honestly I didn't expect you to be able to come up with all the possibilities which is what I'm trying to say. Within that 72% how many were around the 50 vs in the red zone? How many were within the last 2 minutes of a losing game? There are too many variables to sum all 4th and 1 situations up in one statistic.

I won't argue that there are some 4th and 1 situations that make sense to go for but coaches don't, but there are so many variables involved that I don't think are being considered with the thought that coaches should go for it "a lot" more than they currently do.

[gopher_guy]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Yeah I really don't care about it enough to delve into it like that, haha.

I'll just leave it at: I think coaches are too conservative, as a rule, but I understand the reasons why they would be timid to go for it, eespecially in the talk radio and twitter culture that NFL coaches have to live with. 4th and 1 fails to convert, other team marches down for a TD: wow, what an idiot, cost us the game. 4th and 1 works, they score a crucial TD: wow, brilliant move, won us the game!

[darkknightrises]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I do think teams should go for it a lot more why? Because most of the time if you run the ball no matter if it is first down second down or 3erd down or even 4th down you can get at least a yard. I would say probly like 80% of the time you run the ball you are going to get a yard or more. So if teams where to go for it on 4th down and 1 you would get the first down.

[TDenverFan]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I said this when we were talking about it in the Off Topic thread so it's interesting that you bring up video games. It's been a while but I remember playing the "go for it on 4th and short all the time" people. The experience often ended with me putting up lots of point quickly and them pulling the plug on the game before halftime.

It's like doubling down on a bet over and over. You can pull all the odds you want, but they can't account for the levels of consequences during the times it doesn't work. EXTREME example here but lets say it's 4th and inches on your own 5 yard line. Even if it's successful 99% of the time, in that situation being in the 1% would be devastating.

Again, that's an extreme example, but adjusting any number of variables to a "baseline" that will surely be different based on the team, opponent, score, etc, etc... very long list before we even get to coaching tendencies alone.

Really wouldn't be devastating to fail from the 5. You lose out on a FG, but the opponent has to go 95 yards

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Really wouldn't be devastating to fail from the 5. You lose out on a FG, but the opponent has to go 95 yards

It's a 112 yard field goal from your own 5....

[kingkilla56]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I have seen coaches get ballsy on 4th a short on the opponents side of the field. I mean if Tom Antiquated Coughlin is doing it, then the rest of the league HAS to be doing it right?

But going for it on 4th and 1 deep into your own side the field is begging for trouble. I dont care how good your Oline and RBs are. If you fail to convert you are playing catch up for no good reason.

But there are many situations where going for it on 4th a short are the right choices, and I think NFL coaches are fine at seeing and going for them.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

4th down within the opponents 5 yard line I would go for it 95% of the time.

Around midfield though I would be more conservative and kick it more often than not

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Punting on 4th & 1 is bunting in baseball. In very specific high leverage spots it's justifiable but 99% of the time you're hurting your long term point expectancy for very little short term gain.

But, like others have said, it's the easy decision so NFL coaches will continue to lean that way.

[Skyboxer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Ravens sure would loved to have had the 3pt's today instead of the failed 4th down and -1 inside the 5.

Of course that early in the game... the whole complection would change ... so who knows what would have happened.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/up...pgtype=article

According to this article, a coach should go for it on 4th and 1 no matter what. The argument being... "Near your own goal line, going for it on fourth-and-1 is better than punting: You’ll probably make the first down; if you don’t, your opponent will have good field position, but a punt would have given your opponent pretty good field position anyway."

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/up...pgtype=article

According to this article, a coach should go for it on 4th and 1 no matter what. The argument being... "Near your own goal line, going for it on fourth-and-1 is better than punting: You’ll probably make the first down; if you don’t, your opponent will have good field position, but a punt would have given your opponent pretty good field position anyway."

You buying that logic?

Good field position at my own 1 vs good field position at my 40? These people are nuts. It also seems like people think defenses are going to sit in the same cover 2 or cover 3 nickel on a 4th and 1 play. Any argument worth a damn should not include "You'll probably make the first down."

Sorry reading through and find this quote pretty funny considering...

But a key and often overlooked consideration is that, despite the high accuracy of today’s kickers, field goals are not automatic. Coaches often behave as if they were.

But you should go for it every time on 4th and 1 because you'll probably get the 1st down? Really???