4th & 1 Discussion

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Yep. Pisses me off too because Bailey is my fantasy kicker.

Poor place to go for it, once again.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Failed two-point conversion attempt in Cleveland.

[Angela2015]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Really wouldn't be devastating to fail from the 5. You lose out on a FG, but the opponent has to go 95 yards

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Just wanted to say that I love how often I see teams line up on 4th & 1 this year. Sometimes they prevail, sometimes they falter, sometimes they don't snap it but at least they aren't just succumbing to the punt. Heck, we're also seeing quite a few trick punt plays this year. Heck, we've even seen teams go for it on 4th & 6 when it's not just a last-quarter necessity.

I do think it's a big step up from the days of automatic punts on those shorter 4th down plays.

[Cardot]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Good thread reboot! A pet peeve of mine these days is that announcers are almost always ultra conservative. They rarely like an aggressive call. It seems like they think all field goals are automatic and all punts are a lock to be downed inside the 5. I hate that feeling when my team has 4th and inches, goes for the FG and then the kicker shanks it. D'oh.

[SPTO]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Good thread reboot! A pet peeve of mine these days is that announcers are almost always ultra conservative. They rarely like an aggressive call. It seems like they think all field goals are automatic and all punts are a lock to be downed inside the 5. I hate that feeling when my team has 4th and inches, goes for the FG and then the kicker shanks it. D'oh.

I'll give Aikman credit today, he was totally fine with Zimmer going for it on 4th and 1 today.

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Ron Rivera drives me crazy with his conservative playcalling. If anyone should go for it on every 4th and 2 or less, it's Carolina. He did that for 3/4ths of a season in 2013 or 14 and never went back to it.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I think coaches are too conservative in general, but I also dislike the chest pounding "if you can't get one yard you don't deserve to win" argument.

Guess what, if you can't complete a pass you don't deserve to win, but no team completes every pass attempt do they?

[Jr.]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I think coaches are too conservative in general, but I also dislike the chest pounding "if you can't get one yard you don't deserve to win" argument.

Guess what, if you can't complete a pass you don't deserve to win, but no team completes every pass attempt do they?

Not all passes are equal though. One yard is always one yard.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Not all passes are equal though. One yard is always one yard.

If a team has a running play that goes for no gain at any point in the game do they not deserve to win?

I think we both agree that if a team does not complete a pass during the course of a game they don't deserve to win. But we also agree that this doesn't mean a team should have a 100% completion percentage. Same thing with picking up a yard.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I'm crunching these numbers myself, so I'm sorry if I've computed something wrong.

Since this thread started (accumulated going into this morning), here are the number of 4th down attempts per game, per team (year-by-year), plus the total amounts for that actual season and their conversion rates.

2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.148 att/gm (521 so far, 47.8%)

If all continues with projections, we could end up with nearly 590 fourth down attempts at the end of this year. Last year was a massive spike, and this year could see equally large growth.

I think the big difference this year is we're seeing a lot of attempts that aren't just 4th & 1. We're seeing 4th & 3 at times as well (hence one reason I think the conversion percentage is also lower).

[ggsimmonds]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I'm crunching these numbers myself, so I'm sorry if I've computed something wrong.

Since this thread started (accumulated going into this morning), here are the number of 4th down attempts per game, per team (year-by-year), plus the total amounts for that actual season and their conversion rates.

2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.148 att/gm (521 so far, 47.8%)

If all continues with projections, we could end up with nearly 590 fourth down attempts at the end of this year. Last year was a massive spike, and this year could see equally large growth.

I think the big difference this year is we're seeing a lot of attempts that aren't just 4th & 1. We're seeing 4th & 3 at times as well (hence one reason I think the conversion percentage is also lower).

I feel like Baltimore alone is a big reason for the spike for this year. They go for it so often on 4th and <5 that it is almost expected.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th &amp; 1 Discussion

I feel like Baltimore alone is a big reason for the spike for this year. They go for it so often on 4th and <5 that it is almost expected.

Ah, thanks for reminding me!

We ended up with 595 fourth down conversion attempts this year (should've been 596 if the 49ers didn't punt, but whatever heh), which is 1.162 attempts per game, per team. They had a success rate of 47.9%.

The Ravens were tied for sixth in the league (with four other teams) with 24 fourth down attempts throughout the year, though that doesn't speak on how many fourth downs they had altogether compared to other teams and how often they did it with, as you said, yardage that wasn't just a single yard away. As I just alluded to, they were dead-last in number of punts with 40. Notwithstanding them having the best kicker in the league with Justin Tucker, they were still at the bottom third of league with 29 FG attempts all season.

So, although I may be missing some other numbers that I should be looking for, that is 24 out of 93 (26%) of all fourth downs they attempted to convert. That thwarts any other team (next closest I believe were the Texans, which have a similar quarterbacking scheme). You'd be absolutely right.

By the way, the Ravens converted 70.8% of those fourth down attempts, first in the league. My goodness.

[Cardot]

Re: 4th &amp; 1 Discussion

It seems coaches got a little more aggressive after the Eagles won the SB by going for it a few times on 4th down. I thought most of those were no-brainers, but the sports media lauded the bold genius of the decisions. As a Pats fan I remember hoping they would just kick on those 4th downs....like they are supposed to do....and give us the ball back.

[Blzer]

Re: 4th &amp; 1 Discussion

I loved what I saw this past week on 4th down. Besides the Bears, it really seemed to be working out for most teams, and I enjoy seeing them going for it and continuing their drives longer.