4th & 1 Discussion

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I don't think anyone's saying it's automatic (at least I'm not). And FWIW, I'm not results oriented about it. If I like the decision, I back it even if it fails. Because all a coach can do is analyze the data in front of them and make a call. The results fall where they fall. My problem is that I just don't think these coaches think about it much at all. I think they just take the path of least resistance.

I don't think there's many 4th & 1 game situations you can look at objectively and think "punting here gives us the best chance to win long term". Do some exist, sure. EJ Manuel anything and I'm punting. But if I have to see John Fox punt on 4th and short one more time, I might just turn the game off.

I think the problem is every situation is different so I can't argue all that would be okay to me, and all that would be okay to you, and... etc, etc. without specific examples. And then there aren't enough examples to have any validity behind the thought. But that's why I was really commenting on the article posted that was talking about going for it all the time (besides some situations in the 4th quarter or something like that). I do think that's ridiculous (no offense to anyone who agrees 100% with that but I haven't heard anything that makes sense).

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

But FSU also salted the game away late by throwing the ball on their last drive which got both the first down and the TD. The conservative approach would have been to dive up the middle, punt and "Have Faith in the Defense".

Were talking about fourth and one, not conservative verse agressive. That third down high percentage pass which I would argue WAS conservative has nothing to do with this conversation.

I don't think anyone is saying it's automatic (at least I'm not). And FWIW, I'm not results oriented about it. If I like the decision, I back it even if it fails. Because all a coach can do is analyze the data in front of them and make a call. The results fall where they fall. My problem is that I just don't think these coaches think about it much at all. I think they just take the path of least resistance.

I don't think there's many 4th & 1 game situations you can look at objectively and think "punting here gives us the best chance to win long term". Do some exist, sure. EJ Manuel anything and I'm punting. But if I have to see John Fox punt on 4th and short one more time, I might just turn the game off.

Definitely, and I actually agreed with Louisville going for it in the situation they did and would have to see the score again before commenting how I felt about FSU going for it. If I recall though, I agreed as well.


My only point was to show that despite averaging 3+ yards on previous plays, the game changes on fourth down.

[Cardot]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Were talking about fourth and one, not conservative verse agressive. That third down high percentage pass which I would argue WAS conservative has nothing to do with this conversation.

Isn't the whole 4th and one conversation all about conservative vs aggressive? Doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to me, but I will concede the point none the less.

Back to Louisville. The first 4th down call.....I still like. 13 minutes left in the 1st quarter. If you fail, you still pin them deep.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Isn't the whole 4th and one conversation all about conservative vs aggressive? Doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to me, but I will concede the point none the less.

Back to Louisville. The first 4th down call.....I still like. 13 minutes left in the 1st quarter. If you fail, you still pin them deep.

Taking the not so big leap that we disagree on the topic at hand (lumping Kehlis in with me) I don't think anyone feels that was a bad call.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area:

Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees twice? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs.

I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

[kehlis]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area:

Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs.

I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

Sometimes you have to think about the other team scoring as well though.

You go for it there and don't convert a low percentage play all the Saints need to do from there is go down and kick a field goal to make it a three score game.

Make it an 11 point game and you at least give the wiggle room to your defense to hold them to a field goal and still be in it.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I agree. If you don't get it, the game is basically over if your defense doesn't get an immediate 3 & out. I just don't think, at the time of that play, that he would ever see a better chance to come back and win the game. He basically elected to bleed slow and leave himself no chance of escape.

[ImTellinTim]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Long 4th and goals are so hard to convert though. The defense knows exactly where you have to throw the ball. Unless you think you can set up a screen perfectly, it's endzone or bust.

With that much time left I like kicking the field goal from the 14.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area:

Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees twice? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs.

I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

I just don't think it's fair to say what Rivera was thinking there. You just got two good posts on this (you liked them both so I think you agree they were good), but still stick with the conclusion that Rivera didn't think it through... with absolutely no way of knowing. I'm not giving him the credit to say he did but also not going to just assume he didn't... especially since I think it was the right call.

In addition to what was already posted, that was actually a 1st and goal at the 6? The crappy oline and Cam, throwing high all night, turned that into a 4th and 14. Under those circumstances, there is no way in hell I'm going to think my offense can convert a 4th and 14. However the defense, who really shut the Saints out in the 1st half (fumble recovery inside the 5 is an assumed TD) deserves a chance to try to hold them.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Just to clarify, neither options were actually good.

Given the Panthers inability to move the ball (I wasn't really watching but they had 7 pts in the 4Q so I'm making the assumption) and given the quality of QB on the other sideline, I just think you have to take your chances in that spot. Especially considering how much there is to gain by getting 7 there.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

In that situation being described, I'm taking the points every time.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Just to clarify, neither options were actually good.

Given the Panthers inability to move the ball (I wasn't really watching but they had 7 pts in the 4Q so I'm making the assumption) and given the quality of QB on the other sideline, I just think you have to take your chances in that spot. Especially considering how much there is to gain by getting 7 there.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. Is it, "Neither option is good so go for it"?

There was A LOT to be gained by getting points there period, so don't really know why 1% of converting on 4th and 14 with no space behind that is better than the 90% chance of making the field goal... even if we extend it to consider how well the defense has been playing in both cases.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower?

Basically that's my question.

If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount?

EDIT:

Alright so I've found this lovely thingajigger:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph

We're basically both right.

(If I'm reading this right) If you go to the point in the graph (toward the end, upper right) where Gano kicks the FG, the Saints have a 92% chance to win the game. After the FG, they still have a 92% chance to win the game. Rivera didn't win the game but he didn't lose the game either. There is value in kicking the can in that situation. If he goes for it and fails, I suspect the Saints win expectancy is basically 99%.

This situation appears to be a matter of how much risk you can stomach on one play. Me, I'd take my chance on that one play because I feel like too many dominoes would have to fall right for you to win going the other route. I don't think there's a right or wrong here.

Apologies to Ron Rivera if he's reading this.

[wwharton]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower?

Basically that's my question.

If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount?

I still don't understand. We know NOW that they lost the game. But when they kicked the field goal there were almost 13 minutes left in the game and they were down a TD (with a 2pt conversion) and a FG. The Saints then ran over 7 minutes off the clock before scoring another TD, putting them in an impossible situation either way.

Any coach would lose their job if they make a desperate play by going for it on 4th and 14 in that situation, and rightfully so.

BTW, if they took that shot and actually got the TD, the Saints 7 minute drive for another score still would've put the game out of reasonable reach. We can only look at the stakes at the time of the decision AND what happened after still doesn't make going for it make any more sense.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Re: 4th & 1 Discussion

I swear I didn't know the result of the drive after. I didn't watch the game. I flipped to the game, saw that decision, made an "omg tweet" and flipped back to basketball. My 1st post didn't even reference how the game played out. All of my posts were based on my assumption that the Saints would do...... well what they did lol. I really try not to be results oriented about this stuff because that truly isn't fair to the coaches.