The Beauty of the Butterfly and The Endless Possibilities of the NBA (NBA 2K23 MyEra)

[joestrong]

The Butterfly Effect - The idea that small things can have non-linear impacts on a complex system.

January 1st 2008: The San Antonio Spurs (21-8) head the Western Conference whilst in the East the Boston Celtics (26-3) have positioned themselves as insurmountable; league leaders who will eventually win the NBA Championship through a Big Three - Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen. Kobe Bryant is named MVP at the seasons end whilst the leagues basement-dwellers - Chicago, Miami, Seattle - line-up for a shot for the league's newest star - Derrick Rose.

This is where the butterfly spreads its wings. Chicago are currently 18-9 under the leadership of Steve Nash and 05-06 Sixth Man of the Year Jay Williams. Carmelo Anthony has dragged the Heat (24-5) to the league's best record almost single-handedly, making him odds-on favorite for league MVP. However, perhaps the most controversial alternative is posited in Seattle. Current NBA Champions lead by Finals MVP and 1st Pick in the 2003 NBA Draft Chris Bosh, the Sonics are in a state of limbo. Still an extremely talented team although a cross-country relocation seems imminent.

After Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz was unable to reach an agreement with the city to fund a $220m Expansion of Key Arena the team was put up for sale and eventually purchased by Clay Bennett and his Ownership Group in late 2006. Whilst further attempts were made to either re-develop or build a new stadium for the Supersonics, a November 2nd 2007 announcement confirmed the worst for Seattle residents. As soon as the Supersonics could get out of their Key Arena lease, the franchise would up-sticks and move to Oklahoma City. The relocation process is currently ongoing but it remains the premier What-If within the league. How can the NBA legitimize the relocation of its reigning champions?

Anyway, that's enough about the present. Let’s see how we got here…


Author’s Notes:

Game: NBA 2k22 - Kobe Era MyEra
Roster: _blessed2be_here - NBA2k3 Day One (with personal Free Agency Additions)
Draft Classes: A Variety of 2k Share Base Classes with personal additions to include all drafted players and notable undrafted players.
Sliders: Schnaidt 2k23 Sliders
Format: 82 Game Season - 7,7,7,7 Playoffs

House Rules and Formatting:

You may have gathered this dynasty is taking a wider approach, not focused on a specific team. I have 30 team control and hop between all 30 teams over the season, with identical levels of input on their decisions.

Draft: Control over all first-round picks using automated scouting and mock drafts to make sure drafting is logical but not just the best player available each time - giving room for busts.
Free Agency: Automation of moratorium and first 5 days. I’ll step in to make sure there’s a level of realism if needed. After day 5, I’ll manually make offers for players where needed when teams just do not use their offers for some reason.
Trades: I have trade approval on and will sometimes use their offers. The rest are manual with relation to real-life trade values - especially when trading stars or filling the role of injured players.
Playing Games: I’ll hop between teams and play maybe 2-3 key matchups in full a year. Every other game I play will be simcasted and hopped into if close towards the end of the 4th quarter. Games I hop-into include:

• Every Season Debut
• Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Boxing Day Games
• New Years Eve and New Years Day Games
• First Games after big Midseason Trades
• The Last Week of the Season Entirely
• All Playoff Series Ties (1-1, 2-2) and Elimination Games
• All NBA (Conference) Finals Games

[joestrong]

A Retrospective on the Past 5 Years




As you may have gathered, the narrative has not have developed as expected. Melo isn’t in Denver, Steve Nash has made the Bulls a little-less Baby, and let’s not even get started on Seattle but this is only the surface. Shall we see how we got here:

2002-03

MVP: Tim Duncan (2)
DPOY: Ben Wallace (2)
MIP: Vlad Stepania (1)
ROY: Amar’e Stoudemire
6MOY: Manu Ginobili (1)
NBA Finals: Minnesota Timberwolves (4) - Detroit Pistons (0)
Finals MVP: Kevin Garnett (1)

Whilst Kobe Bryant led the league in Points-Per-Game (32.1) and Ben Wallace led in Rebounds (17.4) it was Tim Duncan who was considered the consensus best player in the league on the back of a 26/16/6 season, perhaps the most well-rounded and ‘valuable’ contributor. Although this was halted in the Second Round of the postseason by eventual Finals winners the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota managed to escape the gauntlet of the Western Conference with enough left to sweep 3rd Seed Detroit in the NBA Finals.

The bottom of the league was populated by 2 future NBA Championship teams amongst those who have seen a range of different successes in the ensuing years. These included Denver, Seattle, Utah, Cleveland, Miami and Atlanta, all frontrunners for the crown jewel of the NBA Draft - LeBron James.

This is how the first 5 picks of 2003 played out:

• 1st Pick - Seattle Supersonics - Chris Bosh (PF, Georgia Tech)
• 2nd Pick - Cleveland Cavaliers - LeBron James (F, High School)
• 3rd Pick - Miami Heat - Carmelo Anthony (F, Syracuse)
• 4th Pick - Atlanta Hawks - Dwyane Wade (G, Marquette)
• 5th Pick - Denver Nuggets - Leandro Barbosa (G, Brazil)

Yes. LeBron was the Crown Jewel. Yes. He has had more personal success than Bosh. However, Bosh has turned into Hakeem and not Sam Bowie. This clearly isn’t a comparison of skillset but more perspective. Seattle left the better player on the board with more confidence in a matured prospect, instead of the High School phenom but they have still ascended the highest peak you can climb within this league.

Cleveland and Miami can have no complaint either and most would argue the same for Atlanta. Wade is a player of immense scoring talent on track to become a star in this league. He just hasn’t done it to the degree of the three players in front of him .Yet. Denver may have the greatest frustration. After dropping from 1st to 5th in the lottery, they drafted inarguable talent in a body that cannot handle the workload. Barbosa has become a high-level NBA Starter but you can’t start games if you can’t stay fit.

Whilst the 2003 NBA Draft ushered in a new generation of superstardom, this was mirrored by the passing of a torch. Jordan, Hakeem, and John Stockton all said their goodbyes to a league - (eventually being named to the Hall of Fame) littered with personal accomplishment. In 2002-03 Vince Carter led the league with the highest scoring game; a 56 point outing against the Denver Nuggets and a theme which will only develop in the coming years. However, it was McGrady who stepped-up within this family affair over the course of the playoffs. Although they did not win the title, Orlando’s second-round exit was underlined by the former Raptor’s greatness. A first round matchup with the New Jersey Nets saw McGrady score 53 in Game 2 and then 65, 55 and 60 in the next 3 to win the series 4-1. Orlando themselves may not have set the world on fire but McGrady putting together a 4-game stretch of that quality may never be repeated.


2003-04

MVP: Tim Duncan (3)
DPOY: Ben Wallace (3)
MIP: Tony Parker (1)
ROY: LeBron James
6MOY: Mehmet Okur (1)
NBA Finals: Detroit Pistons (4) - Dallas Mavericks (0)
Finals MVP: Chauncey Billups (1)

If I was to tell you two of those award winners would be NBA Champions by the close of the postseason, Duncan and Parker would have been the obvious guess. Going 54-28 in the midst of David Robinson’s farewell, it was written in the stars. However, a Second Round loss to the Los Angeles Lakers scuppered plans which eventually unraveled to leave Wallace and Okur NBA Champions with Chauncey Billups leading them to Finals MVP - a true team performance. All 4 top draft picks from 03 became All-Rookie first-teamers whilst Barbosa’s naming to the second team can be considered the beginning of the chasm in success between the 5 players. Instead, Chris Kaman was the fifth member of that All-Rookie first team.

Two transactions became central to the development of the league since 03-04. Gilbert Arenas signed with the Utah Jazz in Free Agency, filling a void left by Stockton (to retirement) and Malone (to the inevitable, ineffectual ring chase). Utah finished 10th in the West but lucked into the first pick in the 2004 Draft. Emeka Okafor was the selection, regrettably leaving High Schooler Dwight Howard on the board and even though Okafor is a serviceable NBA center, he isn’t the Golden State man (Howard went to the Warriors with the 2nd Pick). In a similar vein - teams making questionable decisions but still succeeding in the long run - we have Rasheed Wallace moving to Chicago at the deadline. Chicago gave up Jalen Rose, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry alongside several picks to pick up the former Tar Heel. It was a risk. Wallace was an unrestricted free agent in the summer who was tentative in expressing his intent for the offseason. However, when Steve Nash became available following a tumultuous NBA Finals collapse in Dallas, the Wallace trade had opened several doors. Trading Rose and letting Wallace walk provide room to sign Nash to a Max Contract. It somewhat worked out for Wallace as well, signing with the Denver Nuggets after Andre Miller reached out over the 04 Summer.


2004-05

MVP: Tim Duncan (4)
DPOY: Kobe Bryant (1)
MIP: Hedo Turkoglu (1)
ROY: Josh Childress
6MOY: Ronald Murray (1)
NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers (4) - New Jersey Nets (1)
Finals MVP: Kobe Bryant (1)

Tim Duncan wins MVP. San Antonio Spurs flounder to a premature playoff exit. It feels like clockwork now. However, this one was enveloped in discourse. Kobe Bryant was considered the MVP favorite for the majority of the year. Vince Carter was leading the race early on (you’ll understand why later) but as team record began to increase in importance, it was Bryant leading the way. Generational on the offensive end as always but the step up to DPOY level made the difference. However, the three game difference in the regular season records of the Lakers and Spurs provided voting parties with enough legitimacy to crown Duncan for a 4th consecutive time. Only just the most impressive record broken this season. It was this victory which arguably cost the Spurs their ring.

8th May 2005 marked the day Duncan was crowned 4-time MVP, the day before Kobe Bryant would face up against 1st Seed Utah Jazz. Utah with Arenas, Okafor and Kirilenko joined by former Bulls Boozer and Crawford in the previous Free Agency. It would be a test. Although, it should be considered the Lakers had talent of their own. Two All-NBA First Teamers (Bryant and O’Neal) flanked by Hedo Turkoglu, T.J. Ford and Bonzi Wells. The latter acquired for a 2006 first-round pick at the deadline with the aims of pushing the Lakers over the top. Bryant felt slighted by each and every congratulation Duncan received after his announcement, refusing to answer any question about the matter - “We have a playoff series to win” being his only response. And a playoff series they did win. 4-2 against the Jazz who crumbled under the pressure of their regular season record with Bryant dominating Gilbert Arenas who had managed a 60-point performance in his first round matchup against Seattle.

Then came the real test. LA bested Utah. San Antonio overcame Minnesota. Bryant vs Duncan. Yes, it wasn’t a direct positional battle but it felt close enough. Anytime Duncan scored, Bryant would retaliate, again, again, again. Relentless. However, it was the direct matchups in which the noise of the crowd rose to crescendo. Kobe took delight in forcing a switch within the pick-and-roll which brought Duncan to the perimeter. At this point support would be waived repeatedly, the call for an isolation. Over the course of the series Duncan was exposed to crossovers, stepbacks, small jabsteps even, which could only be the hallmark of a man possessed. This series is the one which parents will show their kids to explain how ‘basketball was played in their day’. Mamba Mentality personified. It is perhaps symbolic that Shaq’s 50-point outing in Game 3 of this series is hidden behind a deep narrative of the MVP race. However, again 4-2 saw the Lakers progress to the NBA Finals.

The previous two series made the NBA Finals pretty elementary for LA. Yes, the Nets were good, Kidd, Jefferson, and Martin are all elite talents in their own right. Although, they don’t match up well against Bryant and O’Neal, leaving a loss in a gentleman's sweep as their NBA Finals legacy. “This one’s for Kobe” O’Neal repeated, passing the Finals MVP to his brother-in-arms, in perhaps the peak of their relationship.

There were 3 in the MVP race this season. We know the stories of Bryant and Duncan but only one number matters with Carter. 78. 78 Points in 1 Game, the highest since Wilt’s 100 (Author’s Note: Kobe never dropped 81 in this universe) and a feat we may never see repeated in our lifetimes. Toronto face up against the Portland Trailblazers twice a season. On the 6th November 2004 Carter made 21 field-goals in a performance which amounted to 58 points. His 3rd highest of the season. A week later, Toronto and Portland matched up again. 28 field-goals, including 10 made 3’s to win the season series over Portland. This time it took an overtime and 78 points from Carter. Now hopefully it all makes sense. These two demolitions of Portland, alongside a 60-point outing in December against Denver represent the wealth of talent Carter possesses but a lack surrounding him. Carter has been personally successful but his lack of team success negated him from truly challenging for MVP in 04-05.

Another key note from 04-05 was the expansion of the NBA to Charlotte, with the Bobcats named the 30th franchise in the association. A complete array of players from across the league were eventually led by J.R. Smith, the 4th overall pick from the 2004 NBA draft. It was a pick which caused much controversy and can be considered a primary reason David Stern eventually elected to remove the ability of High School players to enter the draft. As per the NBA ruling, the Bobcats had the 4th pick of the 04 Draft however, this meant missing out on the 3 most prominent names within the class - Okafor and Howard, who have previously been mentioned alongside number 2 pick Andre Igoudala. Smith was considered a risk at 4 and yes, he has had relative success in the years since. However, that first year in Charlotte was perhaps not best suited to someone who had been sitting their SATs only months earlier. It was a lesson for the league. Highlighting the duty they have to their players. Whilst the Bobcats going 16 and 66 worked out eventually, the season underlined the need for the NBA to provide their players with a better platform to succeed.


2005-06

MVP: LeBron James (1)
DPOY: Tim Duncan (1)
MIP: Chris Kaman (1)
ROY: Chris Paul
6MOY: Jay Williams (1)
NBA Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers (4) - Houston Rockets (1)
Finals MVP: LeBron James (1)

It was always clear that LeBron James was a generational talent from the moment he entered the league and whilst his success has been consistent since his first basket, 05-06 really was the year he overtook. MVP, Champion and Finals MVP becoming only the 9th player ever to do all three in one season. However, the route to the final perhaps makes the achievement more impressive than any other. Cleveland entered the postseason as an 8th seed (44-38) with LeBron surrounded by a considerably lackluster supporting cast. With Ricky Davis as the second option alongside Zach Randolph and a regressing Stephon Marbury, even progressing past the 63-19 Philadelphia 76ers would demand LeBron going nuclear. And he did that. Then he repeated it against Milwaukee in the second round - with specific recognition of a 57 point performance in game 3. After putting down the Bucks in 6 games, James stamped his authority on game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals with 50 points. This was LeBron biggest challenge of the playoffs. Not the first round against a 63-win team. Philadelphia were consistent in the regular season but Iverson picking up small injuries placed a burden on Keith Van Horn and Bobby Simmons to carry a weight they were not prepared for. Similarly, the Western Conference was a mess in 06, essentially providing a title to whatever team succeeded in the East. Whereas, the Detroit Pistons provided a challenge no one else would. Experience. They won it in 04 after losing it in 03. Consistency. Billups, Rip, and Wallace had been together for 4 years by this point. Depth. Boris Diaw (15ppg in 06), headlined a strong bench unit in a year he was ‘robbed’ - as many argued - of the Sixth Man award by Jay Williams. Going to Game 7 in The Palace, it symbolized the war of attrition that was the Eastern Conference finals. Attrition meant pressure and pressure meant diamonds. It just happened that the 3rd year Ohio native was the brightest of them all. LeBron closed Game 7 with a triple double to send Detroit packing but going one step further with Wallace. Taking the bags he packed and shipping them to New York in the offseason to create a new contender alongside Iso Joe and hometown hero Sebastian Telfair.

Anyway, let's dissect the mess which was the West. I’m sure you’re thinking ‘don’t they have the reigning champions?’. In theory they do but practice dictated Shaq would break his foot on New Years Day and not see action again until 06-07. This plunged the Lakers to a 13th place finish in the conference. As an aside, it was Portland who benefitted the most from Shaq’s foot. LA gave them this 06 first rounder unprotected at the deadline in 2005 for Bonzi Wells. Wells helped Shaq and Kobe to the ring whilst this pick eventually became UConn star Rudy Gay. Back to the West though. Eventual NBA Finalists Houston were the second seed, finishing 3 games behind a familiar Utah team. However, part of the familiarity with Utah is their unfamiliarity with playoff pressure. They did reach the Western Conference finals but only after two routine series against the 8th seeded Warriors and a Supersonics team whose time was not yet. On the other side of the bracket, Houston beat Garnett and the Wolves in the first whilst following that up with a gentlemans sweep of the Tony Parker-less Spurs. The story of the Western Conference finals was very similar to Utah’s loss to LA last year. Arenas played well but the rest of the starters shirked responsibility as that second-fiddle. Whereas, with Houston it essentially a rotation whereby every win saw two starters step up. Sometimes, it was Ming and Francis, others, Stephen Jackson or Luol Deng hit the big 3s down the stretch.

It was this spread offensive approach which saw Houston falter in the finals. They did take 2 games off of Lebron - and I say that instead of Cleveland for a reason - but the other 4, Yao couldn’t be the star they relied on whilst no one else got hot offensively. Eventually this reached boiling point for Houston after calling a timeout with 5 minutes left in Game 6. Deng and Jackson got into it on the sideline and Jackson sat the last 5 minutes whilst watching his teammates give LeBron shot-after-shot. Postgame Steve Francis aimed to keep the drama behind-closed-doors with an assertion that they’d “Be back for revenge next June”. A quick spoiler. They weren’t. Jackson wasn’t even in the state next season, jumping ship to greener pastures in the name of Seattle after stepping into unrestricted free agency.

That being said, the nuclear LeBron we saw throughout the early rounds of the playoffs had not still not begun to decay. It should be recognized that Ricky Davis stepped up tremendously, averaging 21ppg over the series. However, 37 Points, 11 Rebounds and 9 Assists over the course of six games saw LeBron unanimously recognised as Finals MVP. Even his harshest critics - I’m looking at you Skip Bayless - had to admit defeat in this battle.

LeBron was the story of the season. Cementing his position ahead of the other successes of 2003. The Rookie of the Year, the first MVP, the first key championship contributor. Although it was a big season for 03, Chris Kaman won MIP, averaging 18 and 13 alongside Pau Gasol in the Grizzlies frontcourt. Whilst Melo was an All-NBA second team selection. Chris Paul was another key award winner this season. Clear Rookie of the Year ahead of Deron Williams and Raymond Felton even though he was on a team bad enough to select first-overall in back-to-back seasons. Charlotte quietly put together a competitive, young core, almost unprecedented for a recent expansion team and a storyline to hang onto for years to come.


2006-07

MVP: LeBron James (2)
DPOY: Tim Duncan (2)
MIP: Carlos Boozer (1)
ROY: Andrea Bargnani
6MOY: Boris Diaw (1)
NBA Finals: Seattle Supersonics (4) - Charlotte Bobcats (1)
Finals MVP: Chris Bosh (1)

06-07 is arguably my personal favorite from the past 5. Yes, it may be recency bias but it’s a treasure trove of weird and wonderful events. I’ve alluded to and hinted at the results of this season throughout the introduction but it leaves a variety of questions. Namely, how did the Charlotte Bobcats, who began the season with the 1st overall pick, end the season in the NBA Finals. Well, to start with, Andrea Bargnani was a revelation. His selection, ahead of Texas star Lamarcus Aldridge was repeatedly questioned as the season had begun. Both could fill a similar role in Charlotte, a talented big to provide another dimension to their game which has generally run through guards Chris Paul and J.R. Smith. However, Aldridge was considered a safer bet by many, going through the US education system provided a background more transferable to the NBA game. However, Bargnani’s frame, fluidity and confidence shooting from all three levels entranced the Charlotte front office, making their selection unquestionable in their eyes.

This trio, who averaged a strong 56ppg between them in the regular season - Paul (24ppg), Bargnani (20ppg) and Smith (12ppg) were joined by a solid supporting cast headlined by Amir Johnson. Johnson, the 2nd pick of the 2nd round by Charlotte in 05 averaged 11 and 9 alongside Bargnani in the frontcourt. A sense of stability which proved necessary in an Eastern Conference postseason enveloped by change. This was the second consecutive season in which an 8th seed made the playoffs and don’t get me wrong. Charlotte were talented but there was a sense this time that the Western Conference final would be the series that determined the seasons NBA champion. Charlotte didn’t have Lebron James and they were an 8th seed only 8 games off being the second seed. Moreover, their First Round matchup was altered by the fact the 76ers lost Allen Iverson to a sprain to the AC Joint in his right shoulder 13 minutes into the final regular season game of their season. That left a team led by Lamar Odom and Keith Van Horn which quite frankly is not a playoff team, let alone a number 1 seed. Similarly, number 4 seed Orlando Magic (who could have been the 2nd seed if the tiebreaker was different) only had Tracy McGrady for the final game of a 4-1 first round exit against the Knicks. Bobcats-Knicks on one side of the bracket and Bulls-Cavs on the other. The Paul-Smith-Bargnani triumvirate simply outplayed that of Telfair-Johnson-Wallace. Whereas, LeBron’s championship experience from the year prior became the deciding factor against Nash and his Bulls.

If I was a betting man, the Cavs were the clear pick to return to the finals. However, this wasn’t to be the case. Obviously, LeBron showed his talent again. He went back-to-back as MVP in an extremely similar statline to the year prior. However, Stephon Marbury is still showing regression. He was good last year but only decent this time around. Similarly, Ricky Davis wasn’t a 20ppg guy this year and Zach Randolph didn’t step up either. If the Cavs wanted to solidify their position as a premier team in the NBA, they would have to make some changes over the offseason. Whereas, the young Bobcats only got better as the season progressed and even though we all knew this Eastern Conference final win would likely be the peak of their season, the sky is the limit for this group.

Whereas, the West really went to form. Seattle and Utah were the best two teams in the league by a clear way but the West was a gauntlet. Seattle had to beat Sacramento in the First Round whilst Utah bested Phoenix. Both very good teams in their own rights - Phoenix had the same record (48-34) as the second seed in the East. This led the two kingpins of the west to a progressively harder challenge in their second round matchups. Seattle got to face a New Orleans Hornets team with Baron Davis, Andre Igoudala and David Lee that finished the regular season by winning 15-games consecutively. Whilst Utah were lucky enough to face the Lakers in a season they headlined as a ‘title defense’. It was a technicality but after 05-06 was wiped from the memory of Laker fandom, the last season they played would have been 04-05 which was a title win.

Seattle and New Orleans really wasn’t an exciting series if I’m being honest. Seattle floundered at this spot the season prior with inexperience cited as the primary reason. However, they took on the challenge really well and New Orleans replaced them in this role. The real interest from the series developed over the offseason but like the changes made in Cleveland we’ll leave that for later. Whereas, the Utah-Lakers series seemed like a passing of the guard at the time. When the Lakers won their ring in 04-05, it was at this stage that LA ‘dominated’ Utah, Kobe, fresh off his MVP snub dominating Gilbert Arenas and his supporting cast. This time, the opposite outcome was the obvious outcome of the 6-game series. Shaq’s broken foot at the start of 2006 really saw the level of his play drop, providing an extra burden to Kobe but also saw the beginnings of a rift between the two which first began to impact team morale throughout this series. Father-time is catching up to Shaq at an increasing intensity and this series exemplified that most clearly. He hasn’t made an all-star team since 04-05 and even though he finished this season with averages of 17 and 12, it was the fourth consecutive season O’Neal’s scoring output has declined. This was exacerbated in the Utah series as his per-game averages dropped to 14 and 9 whilst being completely overrun by the combination of Boozer, Okafor and even rookie Leon Powe to compete with in the paint.

This led us to the Western Conference Finals. Utah, the best regular season team over the past 3 years. Seattle, the 65-win team from this past season. Since this series, the two have matched up twice. A Supersonics win in the first weeks of the new season and a game yesterday - 31st December 2007 - in which Utah bested Seattle 104-94 on the back of a 29 and 6 game from Gilbert Arenas. However, this game Seattle were without Jameer Nelson who hasn’t played since December 11th with thanks to a pinched nerve in the back and forced the veteran Anthony Johnson into a starting role. Nelson was part of the strong starting 5 for Seattle, led by Chris Bosh, who has been the topic of endless discussion after Seattle picked him first in 2003 over LeBron James. Whilst the other 3 starters were Stephen Jackson (2006 NBA Finalist in Houston) and the burgeoning friendship of Rashard Lewis and Tyson Chandler.

Compare this to the previously highlighted starting 5 of Utah (Arenas, Crawford, Kirilenko, Boozer, and Okafor), there isn’t too much to separate the teams. Both have a strong Pick-and-Roll duo to run their respective offenses through whilst the difference comes with the primary scorer. Utah work through the ball-handler in Arenas whereas Bosh, the screener, is the centerpiece of the Seattle offense. Whilst both teams are surrounded by competent scorers to help complement the superstardom of Bosh and Arenas, both All-NBA third teamers this past season. Popular opinion on the series was split, Seattle arguably had the better starting 5, even though it was incredibly close. However, Utah’s Kirk Hinrich led bench unit helped to push the balance of the series to even. The series was a table-tennis match. Seattle serves, Utah returned with a rotation of different players scoring big and putting their teams on their back. Bosh, Lewis, Arenas, Boozer all had nights as the difference maker whilst pushing the series to 3-3. Seattle had the last shot of the series. A home-advantage in Game 7 with a fanbase infused with the uncertainty of the future. Although there was a belief this team would only get better, another city, state or, who knows, another country, may be the ones to experience it. The KeyArena shaking under the noise, loss wasn’t an option for Seattle. Whereas, Arenas and the Jazz had an entirely different pressure. Stockton and Malone never won whilst the legitimization of this new group's playoff failures as inexperience can only last so long. Eventually inexperience becomes inability and it was this game 7 that saw inability to handle the pressure. Arenas put up his points in a heroball display. Yes, he made some shots no one else would make but for each of those there was the option of a simple pass to Boozer or Crawford which would have sufficed as a better opportunity. This was the difference which saw Seattle win the media-dubbed ‘NBA Finals’ and I am fully aware Utah have been the victim of much criticism throughout this review but I think their championship window is as open as it has ever been.

Similarly, the Charlotte Bobcats window was blown wide-open this past season. As a team who had zero expectation going into the season, alongside the youngest core in the NBA, they can only get better. The conclusion was foregone that Seattle would overcome them in the Finals and 4-1 was a representative scoreline but that one win did showcase the Bobcats potential in its entirety. Whereas, no one could argue against the Supersonics winning their title, the first in Seattle since 1979 with Gus Williams, Dennis Johnson, and Jack Sikma. Nobody knows where this franchise will be by the offseason of 2008 but I have a feeling that this won’t be the last NBA championship we see in Seattle, whether with this iteration of the Sonics or another. However, that was last season and whilst some of the key players within the association have been underlined, it’s time to look at where each team is headed. We’ve just started 2008 and there’s no better time to check into the new season with a rundown of these first two months of NBA action.

[joestrong]

NBA Team Previews - Western Conference - New Years Day 2008


This post will give a brief overview of where every team is through approximately the first third of the season. It should be noted that starting 5’s are not completely accurate to a team's best 5. This is taking into account injury and those players out will be highlighted. Starting with the Western Conference, every team will be analyzed bygoing from the current first seed to the fifteenth. Let’s get to it:

Seattle Supersonics

Current Record: 24-7
06-07 Record: 65-17

PG: Anthony Johnson (77)
SG: Stephen Jackson (84)
SF: Peja Stojakovic (89)
PF: Chris Bosh (91)
C: Theo Ratliff (76)

There is no better place than to start with the reigning champions and there is plenty of questions to answer. The easiest will be that Jameer Nelson (81) is currently out for a few weeks with a Pinched Nerve in the Back. Then we get to the crux of the change. Both Rashard Lewis and Tyson Chandler were Unrestricted Free Agents over the summer and went through the whole process as a duo. Seattle didn’t feel comfortable paying both, especially considering Bosh had his extension over the summer whilst Jameer Nelson will be payed in the next offseason. Lewis and Chandler left to pastures new whilst bringing in Stojakovic as a replacement who has not just delivered but exceeded expectations. Currently averaging 26/5/3, 6 more points than the previous year, the relationship he and Bosh are developing has helped the reigning champions to continue where they left off despite the change. That being said, the rest of their roster had a lot of returning faces with Ratliff, Johnson, and Antoine Wright (78) all key bench contributors returning from their championship winning squad.

Sacramento Kings

Current Record: 22-7
06-07 Record: 46-36
PG: Mike Bibby (86)
SG: Deshawn Stevenson (78)
SF: Adam Morrison (78)
PF: Chris Webber (90)
C: Ian Mahinmi (76)

Losing Peja in the offseason was believed by many to be the first domino to fall towards an eventual rebuild. Bibby and Webber have consistently led playoff-bound teams but have not had much postseason success. However, this past year is trending to be their best since 01-02 and ‘that’ series against Shaq and Kobe. The only major knock is that there is no clear third option although a plethora of rotation wings including Stevenson, Morrison, Delonte West (76), Gerald Wallace (76), and Quentin Richardson (75) have all provided scoring in bunches.

Memphis Grizzlies

Current Record: 19-9
06-07 Record: 51-31

PG: Dajuan Wagner (77)
SG: Royal Ivey (79)
SF: Grant Hill (81)
PF: Drew Gooden (75)
C: Marcin Gortat (78)

The whole world is talking about how this team isn’t a 3rd seed in the Western Conference. In this current iteration anyway. Bringing in Grant Hill on a 2-year deal over the summer was considered a coup for someone with the experience but also talent he still possesses. However, with your two best players, Pau Gasol (83 - Broken Ankle) and Chris Kaman (81 - Broken Foot) both out for the next couple of months, I would expect their record to slip coming up to the All-Star Break. Especially considering Memphis are 10-games positive on only a +0.8 differential.

Utah Jazz

Current Record: 23-9
06-07: 61-21

PG: Gilbert Arenas (94)
SG: Jamal Crawford (82)
SF: Andrei Kirilenko (87)
PF: Carlos Boozer (87)
C: Marcus Camby (78)

At this point, Utah have by far the deepest roster in the NBA. The addition of Camby this offseason has moved Okafor (82) to a bench role, leading their unit alongside Mo Williams (80), Kirk Hinrich (78), and Dorell Wright (80). However, with depth you risk issues with team cohesion, bench players feeling their worth is unrecognized and Okafor is making waves within the Jazz locker room which suggest he would prefer a trade from Utah, stepping out of the shadows of Arenas and Boozer. Utah are very good but it’s still unknown if their mentality can leap to greatness.

Houston Rockets

Current Record: 19-13
06-07 Record: 34-48

PG: Steve Francis (85)
SG: Nick Young (73)
SF: Luol Deng (87)
PF: Tim Thomas (81)
C: Yao Ming (88)

After their Finals run in 05-06, and the resulting loss of Stephen Jackson to Seattle, the Rockets struggled going into last season with their negative record unrepresentative of the team that finished the year. Young is the only addition from this offseason, the 8th pick in the draft and ‘Swaggy P’, as he is being heralded, has provided (believe it or not) a scoring swagger alongside Francis which was not there a year ago.

Phoenix Suns

Current Record: 19-14
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Lionel Chalmers (74)
SG: Ndubi Ebi (76)
SF: Shawn Marion (89)
PF: Amar’e Stoudemire (91)
C: Andrew Bynum (76)

Phoenix have been stuck around the same level for the past few seasons and whilst looking to move the needle, haven’t found the piece to do so. Ebi has developed well as a starting guard however, Chalmers isn’t the replacement for Marbury that some hoped the former first rounder would be. Similarly, Bynum is the exact same player he was from his rookie year. 05-06 saw 12 and 9 averages, 07-08, 12 and 9 is still the statline. Expect Phoenix to be involved in movement at the deadline, one of many teams with an eye on Jason Terry, as the Hawks guard could be on the move.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Record: 14-15
06-07 Record: 34-48

PG: Luther Head (77)
SG: Keith Bogans (76)
SF: Wally Szczerbiak (85)
PF: Kevin Garnett (97)
C: Eddy Curry (83)

Kevin Garnett is very good. A Finals MVP who was considered for the regular season award this past season is showing no signs of regression at 31. However, you can’t win when your team isn’t winning alongside you and the front office looked to assist this over the offseason. A trade with Boston for Eddy Curry at the draft saw the creation of one of the most formidable frontcourts in the league. Curry is currently my MIP pick, averaging 21 and 10 which is up from 18 and 8 a year prior. They just need a guard who can run alongside the frontcourt. Head, Derek Fisher (78), and Jacque Vaughn (77) make up the three-headed point guard rotation. All are good but Fisher and Vaughn are aging whilst Head may not progress much further. Phoenix are sniffing around Jason Terry but expect Minnesota to be there alongside.

Denver Nuggets

Current Record: 15-17
06-07 Record: 38-44

PG: Andre Miller (89)
SG: Leandro Barbosa (79)
SF: Ryan Gomes (75)
PF: Rasheed Wallace (87)
C: Joakim Noah (75)

Denver are in a weird spot, perennially on the playoff-lottery boundary but never able to make that next step. Miller and Wallace are their stars but both are on the wrong side of thirty with the option to explore free agency in the offseason. Whilst they also have a pool of young talent to build from. Former ROY Josh Childress (80) is currently out for around a month with a torn calf whilst Leandro Barbosa has missed considerable time over the past three seasons. Noah has been a strong addition from the past draft, alongside Jeff Green (75) off the bench. I wouldn’t expect Denver to make any moves at the deadline but explore their options with Miller and Wallace throughout the summer. I personally have 3 words for Denver, BLOW. IT. UP.

LA Lakers

Current Record: 13-17
06-07 Record: 55-27

PG: Blake Stepp (77)
SG: Quincy Douby (73)
SF: Matt Barnes (77)
PF: Josh Smith (79)
C: Mehmet Okur (74)

To clarify, Kobe (97) hasn’t played since December 14th after pulling a muscle in his lower back. Whereas Shaq (88) bruised his right hip against Memphis on the 29th. Both are listed as day-to-day but not back just yet. LA are in a weird spot, one which I believe has closed this current championship window. Shaq is averaging 15 and 10, the worst season of his career whilst costing the Lakers $60m over the next 3 years. However, I don’t think he’ll be in LA as we tip-off next season. The relationship he had with Kobe evaporated to thin air over the past year and whilst one of the duo will be traded, I can also say with confidence that Bryant is a career Laker. Outside of their two stars, Stepp has been a revelation. Picked 32nd in 2004, the 6’4 guard is averaging exactly 20ppg over the first 30 games. Although, his contract is up this offseason and the talk is that he is ready to move on. I expect LA to trade him at the deadline. This isn’t a rebuild but a retooling for Kobe.

New Orleans Hornets

Current Record: 12-18
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Baron Davis (81)
SG: Andre Igoudala (83)
SF: Rashard Lewis (86)
PF: David Lee (79)
C: Tyson Chandler (83)

Yes, Lewis and Chandler left the reigning champions for the team they beat in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Seattle tried to sign Chandler whilst letting Lewis walk but New Orleans provided the duo with the chance to compete together again. A young core gaining considerable talent and although the Hornets are 6 games behind .500, I don’t expect the season to end this way. Redistributing touches when the whole starting 5 and sixth man Thabo Sefalosha (78) can all score consistently takes time and eventually the balance will be found.

LA Clippers

Current Record: 12-19
06-07 Record: 28-54

PG: Keyon Dooling (72)
SG: Corey Maggette (81)
SF: Jared Jeffries (75)
PF: Elton Brand (88)
C: Darko Milicic (72)

#FreeBrand. The 5-time All Star is a Free Agent over the summer and I can promise you he will not return to LA, as a Clipper anyway. After finishing as the 5th seed in 04-05, the future looked positive for the organization but the front office has found a way to ruin that at every turn. Albeit, their starting center Robert Swift (77) tore his ACL and will only be back in 08-09 but that didn’t compel you to blow $30m on Darko Milicic over 3 years. An All-Defensive selection in New York, Milicic demanded an outrageous fee this past summer which unsurprisingly, put 29 teams off. The 30th signed him to this contract which they’re already looking to offload. The one positive is that Sergio Rodriguez (79) has been making waves in Europe and after selecting him 8th in 2006, the Clippers have his rights. Expect Rodriguez to lead to Clippers through a rebuild but don’t be shocked when you see an entirely revamped Starting 5 alongside him.

Dallas Mavericks

Current Record: 12-20
06-07 Record: 25-57

PG: Jordan Farmar (78)
SG: Fred Jones (73)
SF: Kevin Durant (81)
PF: Dirk Nowitzki (96)
C: Rafael Araujo (73)

After losing Steve Nash to the Bulls in Free Agency at the end of the 04-05 season, the Mavericks were on a downward trajectory. Winning the Draft Lottery this past summer changes all that. Kevin Durant, the 19-year old Forward out of Texas is as surefire of a prospect we have seen since LeBron. Although this year may be too early for Dallas as a playoff team, the foundations are being developed. Michael Finley’s free agency this summer means $21, off of the books. Whilst, Lou Williams (77) is expected to return from a horrific spinal injury within the next few weeks. Williams averaged 16ppg as a sophomore prior to his injury and whilst projecting a return from such an injury is incredibly difficult, the talk coming out of the Mavericks camp is that he hasn’t lost a step. This core will be NBA Champions within 5-years. Mark my words.

Golden State Warriors

Current Record: 10-21
06-07 Record: 39-43

PG: Steve Blake (73)
SG: Jason Richardson (83)
SF: Caron Butler (81)
PF: Antawn Jamison (78)
C: Dwight Howard (90)

The trajectory of this Warriors group completely falls on the future of Jason Richardson. The 1-time all star has averaged over 20ppg since 03-04 and has an extremely team-friendly 2 years and $17.5m left on his contract. He and Howard are the foundations of a solid play-off team although the pieces around them are holding the duo back. Butler bolted from Miami as soon as Carmelo Anthony took ownership of that team but is currently scoring at the worst rate of his career. 12ppg on 40% from the field and 30% from three. Whereas, fathertime is catching up to Jamison who has a $16.36m contract coming off the books in July. I wouldn’t be shocked if Butler is traded by the deadline, clearing cap space to sign a marquee free agent in their place to pair with Richardson and Howard.

San Antonio Spurs

Current Record: 9-21
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Tony Parker (95)
SG: Gary Payton (74)
SF: James Posey (79)
PF: Tim Duncan (98)
C: Alonzo Mourning (73)

San Antonio’s success has been their undoing. Handling the decline and retirement of David Robinson with such grace made the Spurs a premier location for ring-chasing veterans. As you may have gathered through Payton and Mourning, their whole roster is full of those past their primes. Manu Ginobili (82 - Pulled Right Calf) will be out for a month and through this season, the core 3 (Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili) have asserted their commitment to the franchise. However, a complete retooling will be expected over the offseason. Payton will play for another season but Mourning, Jamal Mashburn (73), and Bruce Bowen (73) should all be let go, making way for a younger rotation. This alongside a lottery selection in the draft should allow San Antonio to rebound back into playoff contention.

Portland Trailblazers

Current Record: 8-23
06-07 Record: 20-62

PG: Deron Williams (83)
SG: Ben Gordon (76)
SF: Rudy Gay (76)
PF: Tyrus Thomas (79)
C: Al Horford (77)

Portland is a dumpster fire who ironically have the complete opposite issue to San Antonio, a lack of veteran presence. Ben Gordon is the eldest of the 5 starters and therefore inherently adopts a leadership role but when you are publicly orchestrating an exit from a franchise, you should not be considered a leader. That being said, there is room for potential in this tremendous rebuild. All it takes is a Free Agent to take a chance on this group post-Gordon and another successful high-lottery selection and we have a core starting to develop.

[joestrong]

NBA Team Previews - Eastern Conference - New Years Day 2008

We’ve had a look at the West and now let's turn towards the East who are a treasure trove of the weirdest, most wonderful and unexpected results season-after-season. Cleveland in 06, Charlotte in 07, and another burgeoning star to lead the conference in 08???

Miami Heat

Current Record: 21-5
06-07 Record: 39-43

PG: Raymond Felton (79)
SG: Kirk Snyder (81)
SF: Carmelo Anthony (93)
PF: Julian Wright (74)
C: Jason Collins (76)

This is a Carmelo Anthony fanpage and presuming the 23-year old stays healthy throughout the season, will be consensus MVP favorite for the success he has had with this group. If Melo plays well, Miami wins. Averaging 33 and 8 through 29-games, 4 of Melo’s 5 lowest scoring games have been their losses (9, 22, 11, and 23 points). Yes that’s correct, 22 and 23 points have been his third and fourth lowest scoring games consecutively. On the other end of the spectrum we have seen 43, 44, 43, 49, 56, 49, 41, 40, and 48-point performances in chronological order. That isn’t including the 8 other 30+ point outings he has had. The only question being posed is how do Miami upgrade. Felton and Snyder still have room for growth alongside Brandon Bass (77) who is currently out with a Bruised Hip. Do Miami play the waiting game, betting on the growth of their other young stars or do they swing for the fences to bring in a superstar? Whatever the answer, if they have Melo, they have a chance.

New Jersey Nets

Current Record: 21-12
06-07 Record: 34-48

PG: Jason Kidd (92)
SG: Brandon Roy (81)
SF: Richard Jefferson (87)
PF: Wayne Simien (73)
C: Marc Gasol (76)

I don’t think anyone could deconstruct what happened in New Jersey last season. They have had the same core for almost close to a decade whilst being consistent contenders but they just fell apart. Well, they’re back on track now. If they can stay over .500 in the next 2 weeks until Kenyon Martin’s (84) return, they have a chance at the first seed. For the future, the window for this core could close at any time as Kidd is 34 and Martin is 30. That being said, Roy, Gasol, Marco Belinelli (79) and Patrick O’Bryant (77) have all shown glimpses of potential to allow the Nets to retool without missing a step.

Chicago Bulls

Current Record: 18-9
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Steve Nash (89)
SG: Jay Williams (84)
SF: Josh Howard (82)
PF: Shelden Williams (80)
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (83)

I have a love-hate relationship with this team. I love to watch them but hate to report on them. You may have noticed the two Williams’ in the starting 5, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Since drafting Jay in 2002, they have added Shelden but also Marvin (80), Sean (71), Marcus (69), and Marcus (68). That is a total of 6 Williams’ on their roster with 3 of whom receiving considerable playing time. That being said, the overload of Williams’ on the team isn’t the only unique structure in Chicago. Steve Nash and Jay Williams are both conventional Point Guards but playing together whilst sharing ball-handling duties. They have had consistent regular season success since Nash signed in 04-05 but haven’t been able to replicate in the postseason. There is a strong chance this is the duo’s last run before a change is made with Jay likely the expendable guard in that scenario.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record: 18-13
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Stephon Marbury (77)
SG: Vince Carter (95)
SF: LeBron James (97)
PF: Reggie Evans (75)
C: Zach Randolph (82)

James and Carter are by far the most talented duo in the league and a seemingly perfect match considering their circumstances from the prior season. James realized that carrying a team on his back wasn’t the recipe for consistent success whilst Carter decided to move on from Toronto in Free Agency. Cleveland were amongst a handful of teams who showed interest in Carter although didn’t have the cap space for a competitive offer. This is the beauty of the sign-and-trade. Carter got to play with LeBron, Cleveland got their man, and Toronto accelerated their rebuild with the assets that Cleveland gave up to guarantee Carter. Although there would be some expectation a team with both Carter and LeBron would be better than 5-games positive. Vince is still learning how to be the second option whilst Reggie Evans and Zach Randolph have shown some frustration following the trade. Expect it only to get better for the Cavs.

Detroit Pistons

Current Record: 17-12
06-07 Record: 40-42

PG: Chauncey Billups (91)
SG: Richard Hamilton (86)
SF: Tayshaun Prince (82)
PF: Boris Diaw (81)
C: Etan Thomas (77)

Detroit were NBA Champions in 03-04 and have done a good job at keeping that core together since, inherently keeping the team competitive throughout. However, what they have done even better is keeping a strong rotation to surround the group. Diaw was drafted in 2003 and Thomas joined in 2006 Free Agency. Whilst the bench is filled out with Stromile Swift (79) - 2005 Free Agency, Kerry Kittles (79) - 2006 Trade with New Jersey, and Beno Udrih (78) - 2004 Draft. The only issue to look out for is that Hamilton is a Free Agent this summer and has been tentative about resigning before the deadline. The consensus understanding is he wants to dip his toe in the waters and test the market.

Philadelphia 76ers

Current Record: 18-15
06-07 Record: 50-32

PG: C.J. Watson (74)
SG: Allen Iverson (94)
SF: Lamar Odom (81)
PF: Nick Collison (81)
C: Samuel Dalambert (80)

Philadelphia have consistently been one of the best regular season teams in the East but as the postseason approaches, questions arise surrounding the supporting cast. Odom hasn’t stepped up yet and Collison is an addition still untested after being traded for Keith Van Horn over the offseason. However, the biggest issue has generally been developing a guard to work alongside Iverson. It is currently being rumored that Iverson is open to moving to the Point Guard spot which will allow a taller guard - 6’6 SG Bobby Simmons (77) to play alongside him. It seems like the last roll of the dice for Philadelphia before they make a bigger change to carry on contending.

Milwaukee Bucks

Current Record: 18-15
06-07 Record: 42-40

PG: Sam Cassell (74)
SG: Ray Allen (85)
SF: Michael Redd (88)
PF: Hakim Warrick (75)
C: Nene (82)

As with many teams at the moment, injury should be noted. Devin Harris (80) fractured his right hand in mid-December and should be out for around 4 more weeks. His loss has been felt as the Bucks are currently on a 3-game slide. Prior to that, Milwaukee were playing extremely well as one of the more understated contenders in the east. They don’t have a true superstar but Allen and Redd as a combination are filling that role nicely. Whilst, Harris and Nene both provide good support. The only real critique is that a Tim Thomas replacement still hasn’t been found and whilst Hakim Warrick has shown promise, it is a demanding role for the former Syracuse man.

Charlotte Bobcats

Current Record: 17-15
06-07 Record: 40-42

PG: Chris Paul (88)
SG: J.R. Smith (82)
SF: Al Thornton (75)
PF: Amir Johnson (78)
C: Andrea Bargnani (81)

Following their outstanding run to the NBA Finals past-season we analyzed this Charlotte group in extreme detail however, the potential cannot be understated. Thornton is the only edition from the offseason, Pick 15 in the Draft and has provided an ironic sense of maturity to the group. The most recent draftee but the eldest of the starting 5. That only serves to underline the room for growth this group has. A young group still largely on their rookie contracts, it is the perfect time to sign a marquee free agent to further boost the talent within this organization.

Toronto Raptors

Current Record: 14-14
06-07 Record: 37-45

PG: Rajon Rondo (82)
SG: Ricky Davis (82)
SF: Bonzi Wells (80)
PF: Antoine Walker (80)
C: Andris Biedrins (80)

Toronto has done a lot better than many expected to start the season after the departure of Carter to Cleveland. Davis was the centerpiece of the deal whilst also gaining Monta Ellis (77), Anderson Varejao (78), and a 2008 First Round Pick, a good package for a player they were expecting to lose for free. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if Toronto are active at the deadline. Wells and Walker would both be key pieces for a contender, whilst not fitting in with the timeline of the Raptors rebuild. It would also give some younger pieces, including 2007 11th Pick, Wilson Chandler (78) a chance to contribute more widely.

New York Knicks

Current Record: 14-18
06-07 Record: 47-35

PG: Sebastian Telfair (80)
SG: Joe Johnson (89)
SF: P.J. Tucker (73)
PF: Lamarcus Aldridge (83)
C: Ben Wallace (90)

The only reason I would worry if I was a Knick would be if they missed the playoffs. Then Joe Johnson could be gone. That being said, the Knicks will not miss the playoffs. One of the most exciting teams across the league with a unique mix of talented guards and a strong frontcourt, they have started to put it all together over the past two seasons. The only issue they currently have is looking for the final piece to round out the 5. Tucker hasn’t seemed ready for the role as of yet whilst Charlie Villanueva (81) has been mismatched defensively against smaller forwards. Whilst some would argue for a veteran presence with Jalen Rose (74), I think the coaching staff should explore moving Joe Johnson to the 3 and playing Tony Allen (79) alongside Telfair.

Orlando Magic

Current Record: 13-18
06-07 Record: 48-34

PG: Chris Duhon (76)
SG: Antonio Daniels (74)
SF: Mike Miller (83)
PF: Keith Van Horn (78)
C: Jamaal Magloire (78)

Yes, T-Mac (95) should start alongside Duhon, who arguably should not be starting himself. Orlando currently have 21-year old Kyle Lowry (78) coming off the bench whilst scoring at a higher level. There isn’t too much to say about Orlando except, McGrady is clearly in his prime. Don’t waste it. I don’t care if you sell your future but this man deserves a chance to truly contend. Start Lowry and use the Free Agency market to your advantage. Elton Brand says hello.

Indiana Pacers

Current Record: 11-17
06-07 Record: 33-49

PG: Shaun Livingston (79)
SG: Rashad McCants (77)
SF: Ron Artest (84)
PF: Jermaine O’Neal (85)
C: Greg Oden (82)

Indiana is the perfect case study to analyze the difference between reality and theory. In theory, they should be a consistent contender, a strong Starting-5 with considerable depth. Al Harrington (79), J.J. Reddick (75), and Kenny Thomas (78) all coming off the bench. However, team cohesion is just horrendous, to be frank. Reddick has been brilliant on court but struggled with the transition from being the star at Duke to a supporting role as a professional. Whilst, Artest has shown visible frustration with the lack of success within the organization. Both will likely leave as free agents.

Boston Celtics

Current Record: 11-18
06-07 Record: 35-47

PG: Tony Delk (77)
SG: Ronald Murray (78)
SF: Paul Pierce (92)
PF: Andray Blatche (80)
C: Ryan Hollins (73)

Paul Pierce is way too loyal for his own good, signing a 4-year extension on a team destined for another lottery selection. The 6-time All Star clearly loves the city of Boston and for a franchise so entrenched in success you would presume they are more inclined to push to compete. That being said, in a similar vein to Orlando, the Free Agent market will be their friend this summer. A marquee signing, Brand, Wallace, Hamilton, alongside their 21-year olds in Blatche and Ramon Sessions (76), and another lottery selection; that sounds like a competitive starting 5 to me.

Atlanta Hawks

Current Record: 9-23
06-07 Record: 34-48

PG: Jason Terry (86)
SG: Dwyane Wade (91)
SF: C.J. Miles (77)
PF: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (84)
C: Brendan Haywood (73)

Writing out that starting 5 was a completely egregious waste of everyone’s time if I am honest. Terry and Abdur-Rahim will both be gone by the deadline. Admittedly, Abdur-Rahim has only played 10 games this season, being strong in those fixtures as well. Although at 9 and 23, this provides the perfect moment for a complete reset. Wade at 25 is one of the most underrated talents in the league, averaging over 21ppg since his sophomore year whilst never being named an all-star and making the playoffs once. Unlike his 03 draftmates (LeBron, Melo, and Bosh), Wade still hasn’t signed a long-term contract and can explore the market this year. Trading Terry and Abdur-Rahim will assert Wade as the star in Atlanta, a key in persuading him to stay. It also has the benefit of allowing Paul Millsap (78) to start, another young talent on the Hawks roster.

Washington Wizards

Current Record: 6-26
06-07 Record: 16-66

PG: Mike Conley (76)
SG: Javaris Crittenton (72)
SF: Ruben Patterson (68)
PF: Al Jefferson (82)
C: Andrew Bogut (79)

Washington have been slightly unlucky, consistently falling in the lottery but sometimes you have to create your own luck. Drafting Mike Conley at #4 this past season may just have been that. Whereas, signing Shane Battier (85) to be their star was not. Battier has progressed in the three years he has been in Washington but he isn’t a number 1 option. Although I think Al Jefferson could step up to be, averaging 18 and 16 through this early portion of the season. There definitely will be continual change in Washington and the franchise is rather incompetent at this time but drafting Conley and Jefferson shows there will be a route to relevance post-Jordan.

[studbucket]

LOL at all the Williams in Chicago.

Cleveland's lineup may set an all-time record for weirdos and egos. Yikes. How does that team even work?

I love KD and Dirk on the same team, really cool.

[joestrong]

Quote: Originally Posted by studbucket

LOL at all the Williams in Chicago. Cleveland's lineup may set an all-time record for weirdos and egos. Yikes. How does that team even work? I love KD and Dirk on the same team, really cool.

Yeah the Williams situation is mental especially considering I only realised it whilst writing up my notes about the teams. Atleast its not something commentators have to deal with in reality.

Cleveland's still work in progress though. I think LeBron and Vince is a solid combination and Marbury seems to have accepted a lesser role. It's just Evans and Z-Bo who are causing unrest. There's definitely talk of the two being packaged before the deadline.

The Mavs team is brilliant though. They jumped hugely in the lottery and just couldn't say no to someone with such clear ties to the location already. If I had a crystal ball I'd expect a ring for KD by the end of his rookie deal.

[joestrong]

NBA All-Star Game First Ballot Votes Revealed - Garnett Leads All Players whilst LeBron Leads the East

Top 5 Guards (West)

1. Kobe Bryant (LAL, 98) - 1,635,090
2. Tony Parker (SAS, 95) - 1,534,822
3. Gilbert Arenas (UTA, 94) - 1,533,457
4. Andre Miller (DEN, 89) - 1,226,878
5. Steve Francis (HOU, 84) - 803,569

Top 5 Forwards (West)

1. Kevin Garnett (MIN, 97) - 2,275,869
2. Dirk Nowitzki (DAL, 96) - 1,965,469
3. Tim Duncan (SAS, 98) - 1,889,712
4. Chris Bosh (SEA, 91) - 1,579,320
5. Chris Webber (SAC, 90) - 1,452,664

Note: Top 10 Vote-Getters (Brand, Ming, Stojakovic, Wallace, and Howard) all have 1m+ Votes

Top 5 Guards (East)

1. Allen Iverson (PHI, 97) - 1,957,446
2. Jason Kidd (NJN, 92) - 1,481,435
3. Vince Carter (CLE, 95) - 1,414,976
4. Joe Johnson (NYK, 90) - 1,265,240
5. Chauncey Billups (DET, 91) - 1,255,670

Note: Top 9 Vote-Getters (Paul, Wade, Nash, and Terry) all have 1m+ Votes

Top 5 Forwards (East)

1. LeBron James (CLE, 97) - 2,174,344
2. Carmelo Anthony (MIA, 93) - 1,764,552
3. Paul Pierce (BOS, 92) - 1,495,170
4. Michael Redd (MIL, 88) - 1,177,600
5. Richard Jefferson (NJN, 86) - 1,002,620

After the first round of All-Star voting, the starting line-ups are beginning to take shape. In the West, Bryant, Garnett, Nowitzki, and Duncan are almost guaranteed whilst Iverson, James, Anthony, and Pierce are similarly placed in the East. However, it is the second guard spot in each conference which is causing some conflict.

After millions of votes have been tallied, there is still only 1,400 which separate Parker and Arenas. Whilst the two have similar counting stats, Arenas leads a considerably more successful team so far this season. However, this is where the power of the international vote comes in with the French basketball fanbase coming out in full-support for their countryman.

Whereas, Kidd and Carter are similarly poised in the East. Less than 100,000 put Kidd over the new Cavalier. With similar records, you cannot count too much discrepancy but the main argument fans have developed for Kidd surrounds the idea he is the main star for his team whilst Carter is not.

The vote also underlines the respective strengths of each conference. All of the top-10 vote getters in the West have 1 million or more votes whilst in the each, the top 9 guards can claim the same. It only serves to foreshadow the conversation surrounding the selection of all-star reserves, as there will be some considerable snubs.

[joestrong]

The Journey to the Deadline - Part 1

January 31st marks the 2008 trade deadline, the final point for teams to take the next step, sell assets, or even simply cover for injury. There's ample room for manoeuvre this deadline with the Hawks looking to move both Terry and Abdur-Rahim, Indiana potentially moving on from Artest, and even an element of uncertainty for the future of Elton Brand in Los Angeles.

With the All-Star starters being officially announced around the mid-point of the month, it provides a strong marker for the deadline with those moves prior to the announcement used to set up the crescendo of the deadline.

January 7th 2008:

Quote:

Kevin Garnett goes for 27 Points alongside 31 Rebounds in a 105-100 win against the Sacramento Kings. This increases the Franchise record from 27, two prior Garnett performances including one from just 8 days prior. It begs the question of how Minnesota will upgrade at the deadline with both Jason Terry and Blake Stepp on their radar.

January 8th 2008:

Quote:

The Philadelphia 76ers trade C.J. Watson to San Antonio for Jamal Mashburn and a 2009 2nd Round Pick. It is believed Watson was unhappy in Philadelphia and this move allows them to move Iverson to the Point Guard spot whilst Spurs get younger by moving Mashburn.

Quote:

With Chris Kaman and Erick Dampier struggling with injury, Memphis moves 2006 13th Pick Maurice Ager to Denver in exchange for Tony Battie and a 2nd Round Pick. Ager had struggled to crack the rotation in Memphis and a fresh start could rejuvenate his NBA Career.

January 11th 2008:

Quote:

LeBron James goes for 53/8/8 in The Palace to win 130-104 over Indiana. James shot 20-27 from the field to bounce back from their loss to Chicago two nights prior.

Quote:

We're getting reports of a three-team deal centring around Danny Granger and Kevin Martin. Our Sources believe the Martin will move to Milwaukee and Granger in the opposite direction to Washington.

Quote:

The Martin-Granger Deal is confirmed and here are the specifics: Bucks Gain: Kevin Martin and Chris Wilcox Wizards Gain: Danny Granger Warriors Gain: Julius Hodge and the Wizards 2008 and 2010 2nd Round Picks.

January 14th 2008:

Quote:

The Clippers beginning shedding salary, trading Jared Jeffries to Chicago for John Salmons and Yaroslav Korolev. Jeffries is owed $12.04m over the next 2 years but wasn't able to fit with the Clippers system.

January 16th 2008:

Quote:

Kobe Bryant goes 51/7/6 with 2 Steals and 3 Blocks to steer the Lakers past their in-city rivals 125-105.

January 18th 2008:

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Early reports are hinting that Desagana Diop has finally got his wish, being traded to Boston which gives him a starting role. Tony Delk and Raef LaFrentz move to Charlotte in return. A win-win trade, Charlotte gain experience and Boston get younger, with Diop starting and Delk's move freeing up more minutes for promising rookie Ramon Sessions

January 19th 2008:

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Today was a good day to be an NBA Fan, first LeBron goes for 49 in a blowout 128-91 win against the Timberwolves. Almost instantaneously, the American public switch their focus to Seattle in time to see Stojakovic equal James' performance. Another 49 point performance, but this time it wasn't enough. Seattle score 125 but still lose by 10 to Utah in the battle for the top of the West.

January 20th 2008:

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In the past 24 hours Phoenix, on the cusp of the playoffs, have made an agreement with Atlanta for the services of Jason Terry. Reports coming out of Phoenix say that Atlanta will receive a package centred around the Suns 08 and 09 First Round Picks whilst including Ndubi Ebi, Lionel Chalmers, and Anthony Tolliver in the deal. Whilst Minnesota were seen as front runners throughout the race for Terry, the Timberwolves weren't happy to part with Eddy Curry.

January 21st 2008:

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Chris Bosh. 40 Points. 30 Rebounds. When Elvin Hayes went 43 and 32 in 1973 it wasn't clear if we would see this again. In a 134-104 win at Portland, we witnessed a basketball clinic from Bosh, the perfect way to bounce back from their loss to Utah.