I have a bit of free time on my hands so I am going to begin simming through seasons to get a better idea how a player's "potential" rating affects their overall development.
Some things I am planning on looking at / will continue to look at on my second SIM through 15 seasons are:
- Whether or not player position alters the affects of potential (Example: Does a potential rating of 65 affect both PG and C the same?
- How age affects potential, from my first SIM (see below) it appears that an older player with higher potential will cap out at a lower overall rating than a younger player with less potential.
- How potential affects contract offers in free agency.
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Here's a summary of what I did to arrive at the chart below:
- Created a custom draft class.
- Created 9 players with an overall rating of 60.
- Each of the 9 players were assigned a potential rating (25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95, 100)
- Simulated 15 seasons recording each player's overall rating at the beginning of each year.
The collected data can be seen by clicking the link below:
http://i51.tinypic.com/30n9a3r.jpg
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*One of the mistakes I made in my first SIM was that I did not set all players to the same age.
*I also did not control all 30 teams so as you can see some players wound up out of the league before 15 years had passed (which is realistic but ultimately threw a kink in my SIM run as I ended with an incomplete data set).
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If there are any other things that anyone wants me to look at while I SIM let me know.
Ultimately I'm leaning towards re-assigning every player's potential rating so that we can get realistic player development and contract offers in offline Association.