Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win!

[Blade6119]

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:




If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.
If you read all my posts there is a 20% chance i die as well if they attack me...while yes, taking two with me would do wonders for the rest of the good guys, i would be dead. Im a selfish person and intend to win this game(i dont consider my team wining after i die a win for me)...20% is more chance then i wanted to take. Im hoping that 80% they lose 1-2 without killing me scares them to death and prevents them trying to attack me. And if they still did and hit the 20% they lose 2. Can they really afford to give up two others to kill me when all i know is mckerney was targeted for a failed assasination on night one? I ask you that mckerney...if you think they can, then we might be in a lot deeper trouble then i thought.

[Alan T]

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:




If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.


Or he could be lying about part of it.. ie: usually doing a role reveal gets you killed that night by the others, and saying he can't be killed easily then makes them think twice before targeting him. It seems common in these games that the wolves take out the veterans not on their side early on as they provide the most direction, and Blade would likely normally be a day 1 through 5 target I am guessing unless he ended up with heat on him.

[Blade6119]

Hmm Blade, one of the earlier theories that someone had was that a person was jailed, and then the "jailer" would decide if they lived or died while the jailer was still alive. One person tossed out the idea of the security system making this call. Now that you are saying you have a role similar to or exactly like this can you say whether or not you had any role in the death of Mr.W?

Is that how you know it wasn't just a case of him being lynched?
I had absolutely nothing to do with killing mr. w, and have no idea who did...i think it was a jailer or a jailers friend. i had nothing to do with it...i assumed mr. w would be in prison still today

[Blade6119]

Ahh I see, thats why you had earlier mistrust of hoops, mckerney, etc.
Ok, I think I was taking what you said literaly.
exactly...i saw mr. w hinting he had a special role...and he was in a tie with king, who wasnt hinting...suddenly, hoops swaps from king to mr. w...mckerney(who hoops has somewhat defended earlier in the day) comes in very quickly with another...in a matter of like 10 minutes there was a 3 swing vote onto the guy hinting at a special role...that doesnt seem odd to you?

[Blade6119]

Or he could be lying about part of it.. ie: usually doing a role reveal gets you killed that night by the others, and saying he can't be killed easily then makes them think twice before targeting him. It seems common in these games that the wolves take out the veterans not on their side early on as they provide the most direction, and Blade would likely normally be a day 1 through 5 target I am guessing unless he ended up with heat on him.
Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

[Alan T]

Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

I have no idea :) Never seen the show.

[Blade6119]

I have no idea :) Never seen the show.
ok, neither have i...but ask celeval, hes around and hes knows the show

[spleen1015]

I had absolutely nothing to do with killing mr. w, and have no idea who did...i think it was a jailer or a jailers friend. i had nothing to do with it...i assumed mr. w would be in prison still today

I don't think Mr. W would still be alive today. I think he was 'jailed' just to get us guessing. The fact that post #1 says he was lynched tells me he died because we voted for it.

[spleen1015]

Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

It is still unclear what the black smoke is. The securty system idea is something I hadn't considered about it before seeing it mentioned in this thread. As far as I remember, it is still unclear what exactly the smoke is according to the show.

[Alan T]

Just a morning update, with a little over 12 hours till lynch:

Pennywise 3 (Blade, mckerney, Hoops)
Spleen 1 (Raiders)
Raiders 1 (Spleen)
Mckerney 1 (Alan T)

[Celeval]

ok, neither have i...but ask celeval, hes around and hes knows the show
Maybe.

The jailor pans out - the security system in the show has nothing at all to do with the jail that camp 2 dug out. The security system is apparently (I say apparently because in the show it's not really been figured out) guarding the island or the interior of the island. It may or may not be associated with the hatches; may or may not be associated with the others. It's been aggressive (killing the pilot while stationary... well, up in a tree at least), forgiving (staring Locke/Eko in the face and letting them go), and has changed its "mind" at least one (leaving Locke once, going after him a second time).

[KWhit]

Maybe.

The jailor pans out - the security system in the show has nothing at all to do with the jail that camp 2 dug out. The security system is apparently (I say apparently because in the show it's not really been figured out) guarding the island or the interior of the island. It may or may not be associated with the hatches; may or may not be associated with the others. It's been aggressive (killing the pilot while stationary... well, up in a tree at least), forgiving (staring Locke/Eko in the face and letting them go), and has changed its "mind" at least one (leaving Locke once, going after him a second time).
Yep. The smoke is not known to be the security system. That is just a theory so far. The show has not made it clear exactly what the smoke is. It does seem clear, however, that the smoke isn't on anybody's side at this point.

[mckerney]

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:




If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.

I agree with some of the points you make, it's something I've been mulling over. He comes out with information that he could only get through a special role, and if true is unverfiable because it requires others to come out and reveal their special role. Also, if the fact that it's bad for the others to attack him is true, it's not benficial to give away. According to what he said his role is, if he comes out and says he's some kind of seer and they attack him, the worst thing that happens is he dies and one or two of the others die, though there's a 4 in 5 chance that what ends up happening.

Honestly, I'm still not sure what to think about all of this.

[saldana]

ok, this whole security system thing is gonna take me a while to mull over before i decide what i think...i have to do some show research i think.

[Blade6119]

Yep. The smoke is not known to be the security system. That is just a theory so far. The show has not made it clear exactly what the smoke is. It does seem clear, however, that the smoke isn't on anybody's side at this point.
According to ardent the black smoke is the security system...my role is the black smoke, and when i told hoops i wasnt the security system ardent PMd me telling me they are one and the same.

[Blade6119]

He comes out with information that he could only get through a special role, and if true is unverfiable because it requires others to come out and reveal their special role.
I know for a fact two people besides myself can confirm that night action, you not being one of them...im not going to ask them to come forward, but im quite positive my comments have struck home with those it was intended to do so with...Im earning trust bit by bit with people i want to. Im also giving trust bit by bit. But i dont want others to come out with their roles...im generally as clueless as you all are...so im working to establish a circle of trust off the information i have been given...hopefully they trust me now, and as i continue to work with the villagers i gain more trust.

You are one of the two key votes that got a special villager killed yesterday then come out firing against me today...odd? :rolleyes:

[Blade6119]

Also, if the fact that it's bad for the others to attack him is true, it's not benficial to give away.
It is for me...by them knowing the facts i hope they wont attack me. As i said, 20% is more then i want to risk for death. So im letting them know on the chance they think 20% is good odds its going to cost them.

I want to survive...i die, i dont win...i live, i have a shot at winning...im going to do what it takes to win(and that means me alive to do it)

[Blade6119]

hey celeval, want me to give you a big helping hand in your understanding of all this?

[mckerney]

I know for a fact two people besides myself can confirm that night action, you not being one of them...im not going to ask them to come forward, but im quite positive my comments have struck home with those it was intended to do so with...Im earning trust bit by bit with people i want to. Im also giving trust bit by bit. But i dont want others to come out with their roles...im generally as clueless as you all are...so im working to establish a circle of trust off the information i have been given...hopefully they trust me now, and as i continue to work with the villagers i gain more trust.

You are one of the two key votes that got a special villager killed yesterday then come out firing against me today...odd? :rolleyes:

I'm hardly coming out firing, just trying to decide what I think about the claims that you've made.

[Alan T]

Right now the distrust list is Alan T, Desnudo, and Pennywise. I'm not arrogant enough to think that all three are others, but if at least one of them is not an other I'm completely off my game.

It feels like sides are beginning to be drawn here - hope I'm aligning with the correct people.


Thats ok with me, as you are on my slight distrust list right now as well, after your flip flop off of king to Mr. W on day 1. I try not to base too much on day 1 votes, but also on the actions thereafter. You have been providing alot of valuable information since that vote, some of which I have used to form opinions about others so I'm not hard lined against you. I'm just a little curious to what you were up to on day 1 still.

I don't really have any feel for Desnudo so far, but I still think people haven't convinced me about pennywise who you seem to have a strong distrust for.

No one has been able to come and give me a reason why penny is any more non-trustworthy right now than Raiders is. From what I could see Penny, Raiders and Blade all made a similar action, since that time Blade had his reveal which probably takes him off of lynch lists unless you just flat out dont believe him. That leaves Penny and Raiders, of whom I honestly thought Penny gave a better explanation than Raiders did, and Raiders has had absolutely 0 heat so far.

Right now all I see is Penny is being singled out on a gut feel, a bandwagon has formed, and there is very little competition so far on votes, which likely does not lead to anyone else slipping up or having to put themselves on the line for a vote that we can later use to try to judge them.

[Celeval]

hey celeval, want me to give you a big helping hand in your understanding of all this?
I'm beginning to put together a couple of theories on my own, but I'm always interested. What'dve you got?

[Blade6119]

I'm hardly coming out firing, just trying to decide what I think about the claims that you've made.
Fair enough, i overstated....but im going to ask you this. Why come out with all of this information when i wasnt yet about to be lynched? To save my ass? I was in real danger yet, just some questions...its doesnt make sense unless what im saying is true...does it?

[Blade6119]

I'm beginning to put together a couple of theories on my own, but I'm always interested. What'dve you got?
In your last post(before the one i quoted) you mentioned several different traits the security system has displayed...one in particular relates heavily to information i have given everyone....

2+2=?

Im not going to connect the dots, but ill give nudges

[Blade6119]

Thats ok with me, as you are on my slight distrust list right now as well, after your flip flop off of king to Mr. W on day 1. I try not to base too much on day 1 votes, but also on the actions thereafter. You have been providing alot of valuable information since that vote, some of which I have used to form opinions about others so I'm not hard lined against you. I'm just a little curious to what you were up to on day 1 still.

I don't really have any feel for Desnudo so far, but I still think people haven't convinced me about pennywise who you seem to have a strong distrust for.

No one has been able to come and give me a reason why penny is any more non-trustworthy right now than Raiders is. From what I could see Penny, Raiders and Blade all made a similar action, since that time Blade had his reveal which probably takes him off of lynch lists unless you just flat out dont believe him. That leaves Penny and Raiders, of whom I honestly thought Penny gave a better explanation than Raiders did, and Raiders has had absolutely 0 heat so far.

Right now all I see is Penny is being singled out on a gut feel, a bandwagon has formed, and there is very little competition so far on votes, which likely does not lead to anyone else slipping up or having to put themselves on the line for a vote that we can later use to try to judge them.
There is no reason other then i think we have a 50/50 with raiders/penny, and i trust raiders more off his play on day one where he stood up for mr. w...penny made a throwaway vote really on king, raiders actually took a stand and made comments about the issue...does that work?

[Celeval]

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit

[Blade6119]

What i have told you guys about my role is true. I know for sure a few know the rest of my role i havent said. Ive given you what i can, if you dont trust me then lynch me and lose a villager the wolves really shouldnt want to try and kill.

[pennywisesb]

Your misunderstanding me...when i say for the wolves to kill him, i mean make sure he is lynched(like how when he was tied suddenly he got three votes(and one was a swap from king)...if im a wolf, and i see him hinting he has a special role when hes on the block, im going to try and make sure he goes quietly THAT day

If you're following this train of thought Blade, why are you voting for me? I SWITCHED OFF OF MR. W to preserve him. You've also stated in previous posts that my play has been very survivor-ish (I'm going to find the post now), yet you are still voting for me and have actually started a bandwagon in my direction. It makes no sense to me.

[Blade6119]

If you're following this train of thought Blade, why are you voting for me? I SWITCHED OFF OF MR. W to preserve him. You've also stated in previous posts that my play has been very survivor-ish (I'm going to find the post now), yet you are still voting for me and have actually started a bandwagon in my direction. It makes no sense to me.

Question is do you want to assume king is innocent...if so then the wolves may have been all to happy to let us do both sides of the lynch alone. Most of the day(about 90%) it looked very certain wednesday would die...king was an option briefly, and then back to just w...Now i say you look at who started that bandwagon(quiet, while a reason, is a nice excuse to kill a vet)...so in my mind i have three parties to look at(if king is innocent..if hes a wolf its you and mckerney)...

Party One:
Alan(first vote on w), bearcat, spleen, desmond(all in order of votes)...thats a fairly nice looking group for a wolf

Party Two:
Raiders, Penny (look like they defend a villager, and if king is a wolf they look even safer later)

Party Three:
Schmidty, Swaggs, Kwhit(all very quiet day ones...id be willing to bet a lot of money one is bad)
Alan voted wednesday...which i dont like...knowing his play style that makes me want to trust him...penny and raiders pique my interest with their king votes...id imagine one wolf on w, one on king, one on one of the others, and one other somewhere random...so since w was good, i know im good, raiders and penny catch my interest.

Sun and desmond would seem good, as i cant imagine the wolves killing someone soo linked soo early. Leaving schmidty swaggs and kwhit, of which i think 1 is a wolf...thats good odds to me
If you look at that, i see it as 50/50 odds one of you or raiders are guilty...its just an odds game...i think a wolf voted for mr. w, maybe two...but even with two i have worse odds...

[spleen1015]

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.

[pennywisesb]

...penny made a throwaway vote really on king, raiders actually took a stand and made comments about the issue...does that work?
I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.

[Blade6119]

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.
i tend to trust kwhit, but i dont know how you trust him 100%...i dont even trust anyone over like 65% right now...

Either way, i think his vote was intended to create a closer vote then it was

[Blade6119]

I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.
In my mind it came after the swap, so if true i apologize...let me go back and look at the timing.

[KWhit]

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit
Whatchu talkin' bout Willis?

[Alan T]

In my mind it came after the swap, so if true i apologize...let me go back and look at the timing.


no, thats what I have been trying to say. I don't understand the run on penny. He tied it up with king and Mr. W. Afterwhich hoops untied it by switching.

In my mind, I dont know that penny is innocent, but alot of people seem more suspicious to me than him right now.

[spleen1015]

I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.

I have the same strong conviction that hoops is a good guy as I have with KWhit. They both have raised the same red flag identifying themselves as surviviors to me.

Maybe it is you that is the bad guy...? :D

Hell, we're probably way off, going down the wrong road.

Maybe Blade is a bad guy, telling us all of this stuff to save his arse.

[spleen1015]

i tend to trust kwhit, but i dont know how you trust him 100%...i dont even trust anyone over like 65% right now...

Either way, i think his vote was intended to create a closer vote then it was

I will reveal why I trust KWhit and hoops on Day 3.

[Blade6119]

Whatchu talkin' bout Willis?
Id prefer he didnt discuss it to be honest...but i guess its really up to him

[saldana]

ok, i cant decide what to make of blade at this point, but there is one thing that i am pretty sure about.

vote celeval

i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not going to be terribly active in this thread until I get home from work but I'm sneaking a peek when I get a chance.

Pennywise, I'm not confident you are an other. I'm less than 50% sure of you. But if I'm going along with Blade's idea that there was an "other" vote on King, then there are only three people to look at: Blade, Raiders, and you. And I'm less confident in you than I am in the other two.

Am I sure that is the right direction to look at today? Nope, not at all. But it is where I'm sitting for now until something better comes along.

In terms of following Blade, I diverged from him in a pretty big way when I switched my vote on Day 1. I'm not particularly happy with the results from Day 1 right now, particularly with my vote playing a (perhaps "the" is more appropriate) signifiant role in the Mr. W lynch, but anyone who says that I'm blindly following Blade is off-base. I have no role-based allegiances, unless I know with 100% certainty that someone is a survivor.

Celeval, I'm pretty darn close to that 100% threshold on KWhit. If you are a survivor I would hope that you would look elsewhere for your vote today.

[spleen1015]

ok, i cant decide what to make of blade at this point, but there is one thing that i am pretty sure about.

vote celeval

i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.

I'm with you on Celeval. His vote for KWhit says a lot to me.

[pennywisesb]

Looking at you[Blade is referring to me], i see this(if wolf)...you defend a villager, not apart of the lynch vote, and cast a tie vote...all solid villager moves...making key villager moves is suspicious(odd how that works)...and if king is bad it looks even better later.

Blade mentioned this either yesterday, or saturday, and I thought it was pretty convenient as far as trying to get me lynched. Basically he's stating that I have done nothing but solid villager moves, but because of that, I'm suspicious. It seems pretty hard for me to argue or persuade him in this matter when he feels this way. I just hope the rest of the survivors don't subscribe to this train of thought because if I'm lynched, we'll be another survivor down with not awhole lot else to go on in the future.

[Alan T]

Blade in case this helps, this is day1

Updated list, sorry for the ommission:

(67) Blade Votes Mckerney (1)
(115) hoops votes Taz (lol)
(121) hoops UNVOTES taz (lol)
(121) hoops Votes Tanglewood (1)
(138) Alan Votes Mr. Wednesday (1)
(147) Sndvls Votes Grammaticus (1)
(151) saldana votes Alan (1)
(162) Blade UNVOTES Mckerney (0)
(162) Blade votes Raiders Army (1)
(168) Grammaticus votes desmond (1)
(181) Bearcat votes Mr. Wednesday (2)
(182) Spleen votes Mr. Wednesday (3)
(190) Kwhit Votes Rpi (1)
(208) Schmidty votes blade (1)
(210) Swaggs votes Blade (2)
(213) King votes Raiders army (2)
(217) Raiders Army votes king (1)
(222) Desmond votes Mr. Wednesday (4)
(226) Mr. Wednesday votes Rpi (2)
(232) Celeval votes Alan T (2)
(235) Blade UNVOTES Raiders Army (1)
(235) Blade votes King (2)
(241) Hoops UNVOTES Tanglewood (0)
(241) Hoops votes King (3)
(242) Mr. Wednesday UNVOTES rpi (1)
(242) Mr. Wednesday Votes king (4)
(268) king UNVOTES Raiders Army (0)
(268) king votes Mr. Wednesday (5)
(276) pennyweis votes king (5)
(281) Hoops UNVOTES King (4)
(281) Hoops Votes Mr. Wednesday (6)
(288) mckerney votes Mr. wednesday (7)
(308) Desnudo votes Mr. Wednesday (8)

[spleen1015]

Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!

[Alan T]

Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!


Yeah, he hasn't posted as much as normal, but give him a little time. If he is stilla round by day 5, it should be higher :)

[SnDvls]

finally got caught up from my last reading on pg 11. 5 pages is a bit much. I can see people getting lost and not caught up. I'll post some thoughts in a moment.

[Celeval]

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.
See, that's the difference - I don't know for sure he's a survivor. If there's a red flag in his posts so far, then I've missed it. I do see a common thread in some things, and understand that, but it doesn't match up with what I got in my PM. There's even some different terminology. I don't know whether it was AE not being careful with the wordings he used; or if there were specifically chosen things that are different - but from my POV, there's something different there.

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections. I don't know anyone else for sure... but there are a small group of people at this point who are very confident - to the point of 100% - of each other.

At that point, I have to ask why. Either there's something shared between them, out of the original PMs, that confirms it to each other... if so, then it's not in mine, or I haven't noticed it... or there's another reason for them to be so supportive of each other. Could mean the group is Others, but I don't know if thats subtle enough. Could be that there is a pre-existing relationship between some of the survivors, and those survivors know who the other half of their pair is - Ana Lucia & Jack, Boone & Shannon, the marshall & Kate, etc.

I threw out KWhit because he had 100% backing from someone, and I don't know or trust why.

[spleen1015]

See, that's the difference - I don't know for sure he's a survivor. If there's a red flag in his posts so far, then I've missed it. I do see a common thread in some things, and understand that, but it doesn't match up with what I got in my PM. There's even some different terminology. I don't know whether it was AE not being careful with the wordings he used; or if there were specifically chosen things that are different - but from my POV, there's something different there.

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections. I don't know anyone else for sure... but there are a small group of people at this point who are very confident - to the point of 100% - of each other.

At that point, I have to ask why. Either there's something shared between them, out of the original PMs, that confirms it to each other... if so, then it's not in mine, or I haven't noticed it... or there's another reason for them to be so supportive of each other. Could mean the group is Others, but I don't know if thats subtle enough. Could be that there is a pre-existing relationship between some of the survivors, and those survivors know who the other half of their pair is - Ana Lucia & Jack, Boone & Shannon, the marshall & Kate, etc.

I threw out KWhit because he had 100% backing from someone, and I don't know or trust why.

I'm not ready to say anything more than I have. I'm not ready to lose the small advantage I think I have. I've said it a couple of times that I am confident that KWhit and hoops are survivors.

You're on the right track with what you are saying though and I will reveal my info soon enough, unless someone beats me to it or figures it out.

[spleen1015]

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.

[Alan T]

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.


Day 1. But that usually involved either luck or a night 0 with other luck

[KWhit]

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections.
Are you saying that you have in-game knowledge of 2 sections of the plane? That could be important. Or were you just including some of your knowledge from the show?

There has been nothing that I have seen to suggest that there are 2 sections in this game (not saying it's not true, just wondering how this might all fit in-game).

[spleen1015]

Are you saying that you have in-game knowledge of 2 sections of the plane? That could be important. Or were you just including some of your knowledge from the show?

There has been nothing that I have seen to suggest that there are 2 sections in this game (not saying it's not true, just wondering how this might all fit in-game).

This caught my eye as well. More detail would be nice.

[SnDvls]

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.


2 games ago it was day 1 and day 2 (me) then the wolves (dubb) went on to blow smoke up everyone's butt and won the game.

[Celeval]

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.
Didn't Harry Potter nail one in the first vote?

[Blade6119]

Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!
First of all, that prob. is a bit low for me ;) ...second, how did you figure that one out?

[Celeval]

Are you saying that you have in-game knowledge of 2 sections of the plane? That could be important. Or were you just including some of your knowledge from the show?

There has been nothing that I have seen to suggest that there are 2 sections in this game (not saying it's not true, just wondering how this might all fit in-game).
Show knowledge. But at the same time, there was an awful lot of distrust between the two sections.. second season specifically, since first season we only knew about the first (although there were hints).

If we're willing to work under the assumption that every survivor has an associated "name" character (whether they know it or not), I think it's reasonable to assume that there might be names from both sides of the island. It could be that the PMs were worded in such a way to create that distinction. Or, I could be overthinking it.

[spleen1015]

First of all, that prob. is a bit low for me ;) ...second, how did you figure that one out?

From the main forum index, you can click on the number of replies and it opens a window that shows how many posts have been made by those who have posted.

[Blade6119]

Show knowledge. But at the same time, there was an awful lot of distrust between the two sections.. second season specifically, since first season we only knew about the first (although there were hints).

If we're willing to work under the assumption that every survivor has an associated "name" character (whether they know it or not), I think it's reasonable to assume that there might be names from both sides of the island. It could be that the PMs were worded in such a way to create that distinction. Or, I could be overthinking it.
I mentioned earlier their might be two camps...its possible, but since i didnt get a normal PM i can really dissect it. And since no one seems comfortable posting it yet i can really help in that department. I can only go on wondering how some of my most suspicious people are suddenly forming an alliance

[KWhit]

Show knowledge. But at the same time, there was an awful lot of distrust between the two sections.. second season specifically, since first season we only knew about the first (although there were hints).

If we're willing to work under the assumption that every survivor has an associated "name" character (whether they know it or not), I think it's reasonable to assume that there might be names from both sides of the island. It could be that the PMs were worded in such a way to create that distinction. Or, I could be overthinking it.
I see what you're saying.

[Celeval]

i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.
Neat. What about my behavior, out of curiosity? :)

[Celeval]

I see what you're saying.
With that in mind - does my vote make sense? I figured it was really the best way to throw you off while gameplanning for tonight's matchup.


http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

[KWhit]

I mentioned earlier their might be two camps...its possible, but since i didnt get a normal PM i can really dissect it. And since no one seems comfortable posting it yet i can really help in that department.
Just want to point out for the newbies that you cannot share your PMs word for word. You can post hints, etc, but even that can be somewhat frowned upon if taken to the extreme.

Wanted to make sure this bit wasn't mis-interpreted to be a suggestion to post the PMs.

[Blade6119]

Neat. What about my behavior, out of curiosity? :)
Id imagine your vote for the untouchable trio of love had something to do with it ;)

[KWhit]

With that in mind - does my vote make sense? I figured it was really the best way to throw you off while gameplanning for tonight's matchup.


http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gif
Hehe. That didn't occur to me until now.

:)

(To let everyone else in on what we're talking about - Celeval and I are matched up against each other in IHOF tonight - and he's going down!!!).

[spleen1015]

Id imagine your vote for the untouchable trio of love had something to do with it ;)

KWhit, me and ???

[Blade6119]

Just want to point out for the newbies that you cannot share your PMs word for word. You can post hints, etc, but even that can be somewhat frowned upon if taken to the extreme.

Wanted to make sure this bit wasn't mis-interpreted to be a suggestion to post the PMs.
echo that, dont post PMs...i was just commenting on everyones wishes to hold back on revealing roles, and while i agree with it on day 2, in the next few days people are going to have to start playing their hands

[Blade6119]

KWhit, me and ???
hoops...you vouched for him and he vouched for kwhit

[spleen1015]

Hehe. That didn't occur to me until now.

:)

(To let everyone else in on what we're talking about - Celeval and I are matched up against each other in IHOF tonight - and he's going down!!!).

I hope that's all it is about.

[KWhit]

I can only go on wondering how some of my most suspicious people are suddenly forming an alliance
And why are we suspicious? In fact, you have posted multiple times that you think I'm a survivor.

[spleen1015]

hoops...you vouched for him and he vouched for kwhit

Yeah, that's right. I think the three of us have seen all of the same signs.

[spleen1015]

And why are we suspicious? In fact, you have posted multiple times that you think I'm a survivor.

I know I am inexperienced, but you guys can't really think I would give up my 'other'hood this early if I was one, do you?

I am being this open about it because there is a strong indication that they are the same as me and we're good guys. If I were a bad guy, I wouldn't be so open about you I trust and don't trust.

You guys will see how simple it is when you find out.

[Blade6119]

And why are we suspicious? In fact, you have posted multiple times that you think I'm a survivor.
Your not to me, which is why i havent acted against this group...hoops for being the vote that lynched mr. w, spleen(as much as i respect the work he did) accused me and i know im a good guy...so any person i see accusing a known good guy i must be suspicious of...so 2/3 aint bad if you ask me...odds game, nothing too heavy other then hoops, usually the sharpest player "missing" mr. w's hints and lynching him

[Celeval]

Another tidbit for you...you were a very late swap(post deadline) for the assasin. King was as good as dead up until like an hour AFTER the deadline when the assasin got cold feet. If he had gone king, king WOULD have died. For better or worse, i cant say.
Assuming Blade's info is true, does this imply the assassin was a villager? If it was an Other, why cold feet to change targets?

[spleen1015]

Dola,

If I were a bad guy, I wouldn't be so opne about who I trust and don't trust.

Since I can't edit, that is the last sentence of my 2nd paragraph above. :D

[Blade6119]

If I were a bad guy, I wouldn't be so open about you I trust and don't trust.
If your a bad guy, you know just who to say you trust...if i was bad, i could easily pick 5 villagers a say that is my trust group...not too hard...i agree you prob. all have something from your PM, but i dont like that one point

[Blade6119]

Dola,

If I were a bad guy, I wouldn't be so opne about who I trust and don't trust.

Since I can't edit, that is the last sentence of my 2nd paragraph above. :D
I just commented on that above...i disagree totally with this point

[SnDvls]

Re: Blade’s reveal – Don’t quite know what to make of it really. Not an avenue I was going when I was thinking of doing the game, but if true an interesting one by AE. I still feel that he’s hiding something from us (I don’t think I want to know what it is yet either) and fibbing a little (great move for a survivor to ensure they last especially if it takes out 2 others). I’d same I’m over the 65% mark on him being good.

Spleen – I think you are blowing the word others up a bit re: Blade using it.

Pennywise – listen freckles, I still don’t like your lack of defense especially with the numbers mounting up against you. I said you were my vote yesterday and right now bandwagon or not your going to get it.

There are too many quiet players and they are all my #2’s right now.

[Blade6119]

Assuming Blade's info is true, does this imply the assassin was a villager? If it was an Other, why cold feet to change targets?
The assasin i speak of is not an other, no

[spleen1015]

Your not to me, which is why i havent acted against this group...hoops for being the vote that lynched mr. w, spleen(as much as i respect the work he did) accused me and i know im a good guy...so any person i see accusing a known good guy i must be suspicious of...so 2/3 aint bad if you ask me...odds game, nothing too heavy other then hoops, usually the sharpest player "missing" mr. w's hints and lynching him

For the record, I am very close to believing you're a good guy given all that you have revealed today.

You are no longer one my suspect list.

[Blade6119]

For the record, I am very close to believing you're a good guy given all that you have revealed today.

You are no longer one my suspect list.
But forcing me to show my hand still counts...wolfs accuse vets and either get them dead or role revealed...just saying, while i tend to think your good if kwhit sees something, it could be construed a certain way

[spleen1015]

Since Mr. W and Gramm are dead, they are no longer allowed to participate in the thread, correct?

When you're dead, are you no longer allowed to read the thread? I assume you can't take part in anything anymore, but I just want to make sure I know what's going on before I'm gone.

[Blade6119]

Assuming Blade's info is true, does this imply the assassin was a villager? If it was an Other, why cold feet to change targets?
I told you, i have/had no knowledge of the others or their actions...that was a human assasination attempt on night one that failed for reasons i feel i know. Its a major reason mckerney doesnt have a vote from me right now.

[Alan T]

Since Mr. W and Gramm are dead, they are no longer allowed to participate in the thread, correct?

When you're dead, are you no longer allowed to read the thread? I assume you can't take part in anything anymore, but I just want to make sure I know what's going on before I'm gone.


That is correct.

[Blade6119]

Since Mr. W and Gramm are dead, they are no longer allowed to participate in the thread, correct?

When you're dead, are you no longer allowed to read the thread? I assume you can't take part in anything anymore, but I just want to make sure I know what's going on before I'm gone.
They can read all they want...while dead they cant comment on the game that effects anything...making posts like laughing at the villagers after killing 9 villagers in a row is ok i think( :D )

[spleen1015]

But forcing me to show my hand still counts...wolfs accuse vets and either get them dead or role revealed...just saying, while i tend to think your good if kwhit sees something, it could be construed a certain way

Knowing now, I wish I hadn't pursued things the way I did. I saw something that I thought was useful. It meant nothing, but it would have been awesome if it had.

I'm confident that you and I are fighting for the same side.

[Alan T]

I told you, i have/had no knowledge of the others or their actions...that was a human assasination attempt on night one that failed for reasons i feel i know. Its a major reason mckerney doesnt have a vote from me right now.


I'm not asking for anything that would reveal too much for the wolves, so if providing your thoughts about mckerney would do that, its ok to hold back. If you don't think it would give them too much information, I would be curious to your thoughts here. Right now Mckerney has seemed the fishiest to me, and has my vote. While hoops's day 1 action was probably worse, I feel to some extent, Hoops has redeemed himself with some of his insight and thoughts, and his conversations so far in day 2 have me feeling that he is on our side. I might be fooled but thats where I am leaning. Right now i haven't seen much from Mckerney that helps me feel I shouldn't vote for him.

If you have some good reasons i would be interested in them. Right now this feels like day 1 vote all over again to me, where I don't have alot to go on and I honestly feel right now the bandwagon on Penny is wrong. (or if right, just lucky and based on hunches)

[KWhit]

Since Mr. W and Gramm are dead, they are no longer allowed to participate in the thread, correct?

When you're dead, are you no longer allowed to read the thread? I assume you can't take part in anything anymore, but I just want to make sure I know what's going on before I'm gone.
You can read the thread once you're dead, just don't make comments about the game.

[spleen1015]

This thing is too good to be away for the last 5 hours of the day. I don't like having to decide my vote that far in advance.

Damn 2nd jobs!

I'm enjoying this greatly. Yesterday, I wasn't all that confident about playing and was thinking this would be my only WW game. Today, I'm looking forward to playing more in the future. Thanks for makeing it fun, fellas!

[Blade6119]

I'm not asking for anything that would reveal too much for the wolves, so if providing your thoughts about mckerney would do that, its ok to hold back. If you don't think it would give them too much information, I would be curious to your thoughts here. Right now Mckerney has seemed the fishiest to me, and has my vote. While hoops's day 1 action was probably worse, I feel to some extent, Hoops has redeemed himself with some of his insight and thoughts, and his conversations so far in day 2 have me feeling that he is on our side. I might be fooled but thats where I am leaning. Right now i haven't seen much from Mckerney that helps me feel I shouldn't vote for him.

If you have some good reasons i would be interested in them. Right now this feels like day 1 vote all over again to me, where I don't have alot to go on and I honestly feel right now the bandwagon on Penny is wrong. (or if right, just lucky and based on hunches)
I cant really tell you my reasons for mckerney, other then i think he has a certain villager role(one other person should know what im talking about cough cough hoops)...as for hoops, let him go today...ive got my eye on him and i want to see what he does tomorrow

As for mckerney, let me ask you this...do you think a wolf voted for king, yes or no?

[Blade6119]

dola, that should read as for pennywise*

[spleen1015]

As for mckerney, let me ask you this...do you think a wolf voted for king, yes or no?

How would you be able to know this? Hunch?

[SnDvls]

Since Mr. W and Gramm are dead, they are no longer allowed to participate in the thread, correct?

When you're dead, are you no longer allowed to read the thread? I assume you can't take part in anything anymore, but I just want to make sure I know what's going on before I'm gone.

You can read it if you want.

[Blade6119]

How would you be able to know this? Hunch?
Im asking alan if he thinks a wolf voted for king on day 1...its about the penny vote...id like him to answer and i cant reason why yet

[Alan T]

I cant really tell you my reasons for mckerney, other then i think he has a certain villager role(one other person should know what im talking about cough cough hoops)...as for hoops, let him go today...ive got my eye on him and i want to see what he does tomorrow

As for mckerney, let me ask you this...do you think a wolf voted for king, yes or no?


I do think that there is a good chance that one of the votes on King is a wolf yes. That group I had you, Raiders, Penny and Hoops (until the flipflop) +Mr. W who is dead.

Obviously Mr.W doesnt count, so that left 4 of you. Im not saying that Penny isn't a wolf, but it seemed less likely to me that he was the wolf placing the tying vote there to possibly save Mr. W than some of the others in that list. Plus people keep saying he hasnt been defending himself, but I think he has. He gave his reason for a vote (which is as good of a reason as you could have on Day 1 I think), and he has gone into more detail in responses about it. I think any more protesting either lead to him looking more wolfish, or having to do either a real or fake (if he is indeed a wolf) role reveal.

I guess I don't understand if everyone seems to be going down the penny road of thought, why some of the rest of that group come off scott free right now. Its almost like Raiders is quietly sliding back into the shadows here and letting people run with it.

[pennywisesb]

Pennywise – listen freckles, I still don’t like your lack of defense especially with the numbers mounting up against you. I said you were my vote yesterday and right now bandwagon or not your going to get it.


What else do you want me to say SnDvls? I tried to preserve Mr. W by voting for the other person in their two person runoff. I essentially tied the vote at 5 apiece until other players changed their minds or cast late votes. Its day 2, I don't really have a lot of evidence to throw out there since one vote doesn't really show a voting record.

I'm curious as to why you are voting for me so easily? Is it because you want to align yourself with Blade? Because the "evidence" against me is so flimsly its not even funny. If you guys say its because I'm somewhat quiet, I'd say don't be ridiculous because there are other players involved in this game who are a hell of alot more quiet than I am.

All I know is that my PM said something along the line of me being a simple survivor with not special role to note. I'm trying to figure out how Blade has manipulated so many into believing I'm bad when my actions show a survivor's mentality.

[KWhit]

Interesting. I'm starting to believe that penny is a good guy.

[Swaggs]

Wow. This caught up with this thread.

These games have evolved a ton since I last played. It used to be so simple to pick out the wolves, but everyone seems so experienced now.

I feel like there are a couple of people I can completely trust at this point, so I will follow along and see what they are thinking for now.

[Blade6119]

I do think that there is a good chance that one of the votes on King is a wolf yes. That group I had you, Raiders, Penny and Hoops (until the flipflop) +Mr. W who is dead.

Obviously Mr.W doesnt count, so that left 4 of you. Im not saying that Penny isn't a wolf, but it seemed less likely to me that he was the wolf placing the tying vote there to possibly save Mr. W than some of the others in that list. Plus people keep saying he hasnt been defending himself, but I think he has. He gave his reason for a vote (which is as good of a reason as you could have on Day 1 I think), and he has gone into more detail in responses about it. I think any more protesting either lead to him looking more wolfish, or having to do either a real or fake (if he is indeed a wolf) role reveal.

I guess I don't understand if everyone seems to be going down the penny road of thought, why some of the rest of that group come off scott free right now. Its almost like Raiders is quietly sliding back into the shadows here and letting people run with it.
If you believe a wolf voted king, you have 3 options(not counting myself)...hoops(who is being vouched for by kwhit and spleen), raiders, and penny...trust me when i say raiders is being watched as well. One big x-factor is if king is good or bad...if king is good too it doesnt matter at all if someone voted king or mr. r, who was tied or not, but more just how wolves were spread out. Everyone has reasons for voting a certain way. Do i know penny is bad, no...but im betting he has a far better chance of being bad then raiders at this point in time. I cant give you reasons you want, just a hunch. But im betting king is a villager and there for penny's vote really didnt matter much if he is good or bad...

[spleen1015]

Interesting. I'm starting to believe that penny is a good guy.

Yikes! I'm with you.

[spleen1015]

I guess I don't understand if everyone seems to be going down the penny road of thought, why some of the rest of that group come off scott free right now. Its almost like Raiders is quietly sliding back into the shadows here and letting people run with it.

I agree. Raiders is a hude suspect in my mind right now.

[Alan T]

If you believe a wolf voted king, you have 3 options(not counting myself)...hoops(who is being vouched for by kwhit and spleen), raiders, and penny...trust me when i say raiders is being watched as well. One big x-factor is if king is good or bad...if king is good too it doesnt matter at all if someone voted king or mr. r, who was tied or not, but more just how wolves were spread out. Everyone has reasons for voting a certain way. Do i know penny is bad, no...but im betting he has a far better chance of being bad then raiders at this point in time. I cant give you reasons you want, just a hunch. But im betting king is a villager and there for penny's vote really didnt matter much if he is good or bad...


Well I can't really argue against hunches, thats all I have to go on right now too. I don't think I am as alarmed that you are voting for penny as I am at how many people just hop along with less reasoning than you to do the same. I think you have pretty much defended your vote even if at this time I might disagree with it to some extent, I respect that. Its getting too easy though if a run away bandwagon forms that everyone is just hopping on the penny train without much in the way of reasons. I just dont want to be stuck at day 3 in the same spot as I am here without much to go on.

[Blade6119]

I'm trying to figure out how Blade has manipulated so many into believing I'm bad when my actions show a survivor's mentality.
Alan is accusing you...alan taught us all last game what showing a survivors mentality meant(he was the master survivor and was a bad guy). i dont need people to follow me, i just see 50/50 odds between you and raiders and between those two options im more inclined to trust raiders right now. Other people may or may not see the same thing. i dont know your bad, and really havent ever said you were...just said if a wolf voted for king, which most people believe happened, with hoops now being vouched for, the odds fall on you in my eyes over raiders...sorry, just my gut between you 2...nothing too concrete

[pennywisesb]

I do think that there is a good chance that one of the votes on King is a wolf yes. That group I had you, Raiders, Penny and Hoops (until the flipflop) +Mr. W who is dead.

Obviously Mr.W doesnt count, so that left 4 of you. Im not saying that Penny isn't a wolf, but it seemed less likely to me that he was the wolf placing the tying vote there to possibly save Mr. W than some of the others in that list. Plus people keep saying he hasnt been defending himself, but I think he has. He gave his reason for a vote (which is as good of a reason as you could have on Day 1 I think), and he has gone into more detail in responses about it. I think any more protesting either lead to him looking more wolfish, or having to do either a real or fake (if he is indeed a wolf) role reveal.

I guess I don't understand if everyone seems to be going down the penny road of thought, why some of the rest of that group come off scott free right now. Its almost like Raiders is quietly sliding back into the shadows here and letting people run with it.
Alan T is definately entering my circle of trust at this point because it seems he's one of the only ones who isn't being swayed by Blade's and Hoops "suspicions". These suspicions are definately hard for me to read as well, because it seems as though Blade knows for a fact that Hoops is a good guy, and if thats the case Blade would also be a good guy. So it would seem that in this case there are two good guys pushing for another good guy's lynch....Interesting.

I also think that RA is getting off scott-free here, especially if an "other" was involved in the King vote (which I'm not convinced is the case). But, if that is your line of thought, I think RA should be getting just as much scrutiny as I.

[spleen1015]

If you believe a wolf voted king, you have 3 options(not counting myself)...hoops(who is being vouched for by kwhit and spleen), raiders, and penny...trust me when i say raiders is being watched as well. One big x-factor is if king is good or bad...if king is good too it doesnt matter at all if someone voted king or mr. r, who was tied or not, but more just how wolves were spread out. Everyone has reasons for voting a certain way. Do i know penny is bad, no...but im betting he has a far better chance of being bad then raiders at this point in time. I cant give you reasons you want, just a hunch. But im betting king is a villager and there for penny's vote really didnt matter much if he is good or bad...

After his last post, penny needs to be taken off of the suspect list.

I would like to see Raiders lynched today, folks. If you think a wolf voted for king, then Raiders is the only choice.

[Blade6119]

Well I can't really argue against hunches, thats all I have to go on right now too. I don't think I am as alarmed that you are voting for penny as I am at how many people just hop along with less reasoning than you to do the same. I think you have pretty much defended your vote even if at this time I might disagree with it to some extent, I respect that. Its getting too easy though if a run away bandwagon forms that everyone is just hopping on the penny train without much in the way of reasons. I just dont want to be stuck at day 3 in the same spot as I am here without much to go on.
Depending on this new alliance forming(i see 5-6 people starting to lay claim to it, adding swagss and sun to people somewhat attached to it)...that should dramatically alter tomorrow...day 4 is when things should get interesting when lynch 3 tests this alliance...the wolves killed gramat purposely to leave us nowhere...so my best evidence is that the wovles spread out, and on king, of 4, we have 1 dead, myself, and 2 others...1 i somewhat trust and 1 i dont...hence my penny vote..if you can show me better then 50/50 odds anywhere else ill take them in a heartbeat.

[Poli]

2 games ago it was day 1 and day 2 (me) then the wolves (dubb) went on to blow smoke up everyone's butt and won the game.
What am I, chopped liver?

[KWhit]

After his last post, penny needs to be taken off of the suspect list.

I would like to see Raiders lynched today, folks. If you think a wolf voted for king, then Raiders is the only choice.
I think it's too early to say with certainty that Blade is above suspician. I think I believe his story right now, but I wouldn't set it in stone yet.

:)

[pennywisesb]

Everyone has reasons for voting a certain way. Do i know penny is bad, no...but im betting he has a far better chance of being bad then raiders at this point in time. I cant give you reasons you want, just a hunch. But im betting king is a villager and there for penny's vote really didnt matter much if he is good or bad...
Can you please re-iterate why RA has a far better chance of being good? I just don't understand why RA is being let off the hook...

[hoopsguy]

Penny, I'll pull back the vote for now.

UNVOTE PENNYWISEB

Let's see where some other people let the votes fall.

Spleen, KWhit - I think we are all on the same page for what we have been looking at with our evidence. I would urge both of you to strongly consider that a wolf might have picked up that thread as well by now, so when you are evaluating this make sure to give heavier credence to clues early in the game rather than later in the game. And I say this knowing that you can use the same logic against me if you choose to do this.

Penny, as I remove my vote from you I'm more tense about Alan T. Who is entering your circle of trust because he stuck up for you.

In terms of trust in this game, right at the moment I trust Raiders more than I trust Blade. Both are on the positive side of the trust list. They are both players I've had a number of werewolf games with and I trust my reads on them more than guys I'm less familiar with (just about everyone else).

I'm having a hard time squaring away the idea of four others without one of the votes being on King, which is why I'm in a quandry here. So maybe there are only three others to start?

[Blade6119]

Alan T is definately entering my circle of trust at this point because it seems he's one of the only ones who isn't being swayed by Blade's and Hoops "suspicions". These suspicions are definately hard for me to read as well, because it seems as though Blade knows for a fact that Hoops is a good guy, and if thats the case Blade would also be a good guy. So it would seem that in this case there are two good guys pushing for another good guy's lynch....Interesting.

I also think that RA is getting off scott-free here, especially if an "other" was involved in the King vote (which I'm not convinced is the case). But, if that is your line of thought, I think RA should be getting just as much scrutiny as I.
LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR..I SUSPECT HOOPS RIGHT NOW...i dont know hes good at all...i have 0 known good guys, as no one i know shares my role info. I have some mild-trusts based on behind the scenes stuff like the assasination attempt, but hoops is far from my trust list

[spleen1015]

I think it's too early to say with certainty that Blade is above suspician. I think I believe his story right now, but I wouldn't set it in stone yet.

:)

I know, but I have absolutely no reason to trust RA and Blade has given me a reason. Plus, RA voted for me.

[KWhit]

Depending on this new alliance forming(i see 5-6 people starting to lay claim to it, adding swagss and sun to people somewhat attached to it)...
I haven't seen swaggs or sndvls allying themselves with anyone at this point.

[Alan T]

Depending on this new alliance forming(i see 5-6 people starting to lay claim to it, adding swagss and sun to people somewhat attached to it)...that should dramatically alter tomorrow...day 4 is when things should get interesting when lynch 3 tests this alliance...the wolves killed gramat purposely to leave us nowhere...so my best evidence is that the wovles spread out, and on king, of 4, we have 1 dead, myself, and 2 others...1 i somewhat trust and 1 i dont...hence my penny vote..if you can show me better then 50/50 odds anywhere else ill take them in a heartbeat.


No, I unfortunatly don't have anything better than 50/50 to give you, I appreciate the reasoning though, it gives me stuff to think about. I still don't like the idea of this becoming a run away though as closer votes seem to get more people on the hot seat. (alot tougher looking through 11 different people voting for the same person with the same reason).

[Blade6119]

Can you please re-iterate why RA has a far better chance of being good? I just don't understand why RA is being let off the hook...
I cannot reiterate that point...sorry penny...this is one of those times i have a gut feeling and im sticking with it. I have a gut feeling hes more likely a good guy then you...just how it is

[pennywisesb]

Penny, as I remove my vote from you I'm more tense about Alan T. Who is entering your circle of trust because he stuck up for you.


Well, I do admit it'd be a good play for Alan T to try to save me if he were an "other" knowing that I'm a survivor (thus forming a loose alliance). But at this point, he's one of the only people sticking up for me so I'm gonna have to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

[Blade6119]

I haven't seen swaggs or sndvls allying themselves with anyone at this point.
I feel like there are a couple of people I can completely trust at this point, so I will follow along and see what they are thinking for now.

That read to me like he was allying himself with you guys...i havent seen another group form in the meantime

[spleen1015]

Penny, I'll pull back the vote for now.

UNVOTE PENNYWISEB

Let's see where some other people let the votes fall.

Spleen, KWhit - I think we are all on the same page for what we have been looking at with our evidence. I would urge both of you to strongly consider that a wolf might have picked up that thread as well by now, so when you are evaluating this make sure to give heavier credence to clues early in the game rather than later in the game. And I say this knowing that you can use the same logic against me if you choose to do this.

Penny, as I remove my vote from you I'm more tense about Alan T. Who is entering your circle of trust because he stuck up for you.

In terms of trust in this game, right at the moment I trust Raiders more than I trust Blade. Both are on the positive side of the trust list. They are both players I've had a number of werewolf games with and I trust my reads on them more than guys I'm less familiar with (just about everyone else).

I'm having a hard time squaring away the idea of four others without one of the votes being on King, which is why I'm in a quandry here. So maybe there are only three others to start?


If someone else proves they deserve my vote or RA proves he doesn't deserve it, my vote stays there.

[Blade6119]

No, I unfortunatly don't have anything better than 50/50 to give you, I appreciate the reasoning though, it gives me stuff to think about. I still don't like the idea of this becoming a run away though as closer votes seem to get more people on the hot seat. (alot tougher looking through 11 different people voting for the same person with the same reason).
I think he has 2 votes and we have like 4 with 1...just saying, its a lot closer then a bandwagon. And what worries me is in a close lynch the wolves can mannuever and get the results they want

[KWhit]

Spleen, KWhit - I think we are all on the same page for what we have been looking at with our evidence. I would urge both of you to strongly consider that a wolf might have picked up that thread as well by now, so when you are evaluating this make sure to give heavier credence to clues early in the game rather than later in the game. And I say this knowing that you can use the same logic against me if you choose to do this.
I agree 100%. It is very possible that an other will try to latch himself onto us. I also want to re-read the early part of the thread to make sure that I trust you 2 guys (hoops and spleen) like I think I do. I don't want to take anything for granted at this point.

[spleen1015]

If someone else proves they deserve my vote or RA proves he doesn't deserve it, my vote stays there.

I meant to say, Until someone else proves they deserve my vote or RA proves he doesn't deserve it, my vote stays there.

Sheesh. I have 14 thoughts running through my fingers at once.

[pennywisesb]

I cannot reiterate that point...sorry penny...this is one of those times i have a gut feeling and im sticking with it. I have a gut feeling hes more likely a good guy then you...just how it is

.....

I hope that anyone else voting for me would actually have a reason rather than just a "gut feeling". This time your gut is telling your wrong Blade.

[Desnudo]

I'm missing how penny is off the list based on those posts? Could someone please summarize the for-against?

The one thing missing from Blade's reveal, is that at some point someone, the assassin or the seer, needs to corroborate his story. Additionally, I think there's a possibility that he was the assassin (good or evil) that failed. I think there's certainly at least some truth in the story, but we need to do more research rather than just taking everything at face value.

Looking at the player list, I see a small group of people who pretty much haven't said jack so far. I know Tanglewood is over in England, but still, I think he's posted twice in 18 pages. Schmidty, twice? And some others. I don't think it's always an indicator of guilt, but my preference is to vote off less active people in absense of strong evidence of someone's guilt.

[spleen1015]

I agree 100%. It is very possible that an other will try to latch himself onto us. I also want to re-read the early part of the thread to make sure that I trust you 2 guys (hoops and spleen) like I think I do. I don't want to take anything for granted at this point.

You should do this. I've already made sure a few times just to be safe.

Keeping penny at arms length. ;)

[Blade6119]

.....

I hope that anyone else voting for me would actually have a reason rather than just a "gut feeling". This time your gut is telling your wrong Blade.
Quick question penny...what other reasons do people have for voting anyone else today?? I have 50/50 odds on you in my mind, and i love those odds...and suddenly everybody trusts you too...just odd

[KWhit]

That read to me like he was allying himself with you guys...i havent seen another group form in the meantime
Yes, I saw that post of his, but he didn't say who he was talking about and it really could be anybody - not a group per se, but a couple of individuals that he's beginning to trust - maybe you and someone else for instance.

[Alan T]

Well, I do admit it'd be a good play for Alan T to try to save me if he were an "other" knowing that I'm a survivor (thus forming a loose alliance). But at this point, he's one of the only people sticking up for me so I'm gonna have to give him the benefit of the doubt here.


I'm not sure I want to be linked closely to you yet, I dont know you aren't a wolf. my point wasnt as much that you were a good guy as I dont like how a train was forming without people giving much reasons for voting for you without reason other than /echo Blade.

I am hoping on Day2, people give more reasoning into why they vote for who they did. As you may have seen on people's votes without any reason I have been responding trying to ask for more clarification why they are voting that way.

[hoopsguy]

I'm very comfortable right now being linked with KWhit and Spleen. I don't necessarily want their voting records to mirror mine, but if one of them is revealed to be an other then I have badly butchered my interpretation of this game.

Raiders would be next in line in terms of trust, but I'm not looking to be coupled with him in terms of "factions" just yet. I'm curious what Blade may know about him, but I'm not remotely asking him to tell.

[Blade6119]

Yes, I saw that post of his, but he didn't say who he was talking about and it really could be anybody - not a group per se, but a couple of individuals that he's beginning to trust - maybe you and someone else for instance.
He said COMPLETELY...that doesnt mean he has a gut feeling on me...hes saying he saw something in someone posts...hes talking about you guys

[spleen1015]

Quick question penny...what other reasons do people have for voting anyone else today?? I have 50/50 odds on you in my mind, and i love those odds...and suddenly everybody trusts you too...just odd

I have the same reason to trust penny that I do KWhit and hoops. The only problem is that is has come late enough in the game where there needs to be some caution taken just to be sure.

[spleen1015]

He said COMPLETELY...that doesnt mean he has a gut feeling on me...hes saying he saw something in someone posts...hes talking about you guys

I interpreted this the same way Blade has.

[Blade6119]

I have the same reason to trust penny that I do KWhit and hoops. The only problem is that is has come late enough in the game where there needs to be some caution taken just to be sure.
I really dont like how just everyone is suddenly being put in this group...ill play along for a bit, but someone is playing someone

[KWhit]

These are good points:

The one thing missing from Blade's reveal, is that at some point someone, the assassin or the seer, needs to corroborate his story. Additionally, I think there's a possibility that he was the assassin (good or evil) that failed. I think there's certainly at least some truth in the story, but we need to do more research rather than just taking everything at face value.

Looking at the player list, I see a small group of people who pretty much haven't said jack so far. I know Tanglewood is over in England, but still, I think he's posted twice in 18 pages. Schmidty, twice? And some others. I don't think it's always an indicator of guilt, but my preference is to vote off less active people in absense of strong evidence of someone's guilt.

[spleen1015]

I really dont like how just everyone is suddenly being put in this group...ill play along for a bit, but someone is playing someone

I don't think so, but you're right about the need for some caution.

There are people that are on my side who are slowly showing me that. Once I feel there is enough, I'll give up the goods.

Let me ask you this, Blade. What happens when this group gets 6 people big? Are you going to refuse to trust it then? I can honestly see that happening as long as those on the bad side don't pick up on it.

[KWhit]

He said COMPLETELY...that doesnt mean he has a gut feeling on me...hes saying he saw something in someone posts...hes talking about you guys
Hmmm... Maybe so. Interesting.

Actually, him not coming right out and saying it's us let's me trust him a little bit. It makes it less likely that he was doing it to latch onto a group of trust.

Note that I said "less likely" not impossible. I don't trust him that much yet.

[Blade6119]

I don't think so, but you're right about the need for some caution.

There are people that are on my side who are slowly showing me that. Once I feel there is enough, I'll give up the goods.

Let me ask you this, Blade. What happens when this group gets 6 people big? Are you going to refuse to trust it then? I can honestly see that happening as long as those on the bad side don't pick up on it.
If i can thats great...its just odd that almost all my my most distrusted people found their way into this group...remember, in the show the others infliltrated the survivor camps...its very possible this is rooted in the game as well, they very well may have the simple survivor PM...just saying i think their are roles out there people arent claimng...so either their inactive or we have liars

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, I would be just fine with you releasing the "code" at this point and letting other people evaluate it for what it is right now. Having a circle of trust involving 2-4 people (let everyone debate for themselves who should be in and out) is a huge benefit this early in the game. If we get greedy and hope that it can continue to swell with only the correct people figuring it out then it will be compromised. No doubt about it. Perhaps it already has ...

[pennywisesb]

Quick question penny...what other reasons do people have for voting anyone else today?? I have 50/50 odds on you in my mind, and i love those odds...and suddenly everybody trusts you too...just odd

To be honest, when the day started, and it looked as though I was definately being targeted, I was just thinking about self preservation, but now that it seems it may not be a run-away vote for me, I'm going to have to reread some posts and decide who to vote for.

[Alan T]

I don't think so, but you're right about the need for some caution.

There are people that are on my side who are slowly showing me that. Once I feel there is enough, I'll give up the goods.

Let me ask you this, Blade. What happens when this group gets 6 people big? Are you going to refuse to trust it then? I can honestly see that happening as long as those on the bad side don't pick up on it.


Having 6 people who fully trust each other is a huge benefit to us, but make absolutely sure you can trust them. I feel in this game I dont trust anyone 100% until they are dead. Often you can trust someone 80-90%, but there are always things that can come up and make someone you trust end up fooling you.

If you can honestly feel you trust them nearly 100% its a huge benefit though, as its that many less people to look at

[spleen1015]

Spleen, I would be just fine with you releasing the "code" at this point and letting other people evaluate it for what it is right now. Having a circle of trust involving 2-4 people (let everyone debate for themselves who should be in and out) is a huge benefit this early in the game. If we get greedy and hope that it can continue to swell with only the correct people figuring it out then it will be compromised. No doubt about it. Perhaps it already has ...

KWhit, are you down with me giving the details?

[Blade6119]

To be honest, when the day started, and it looked as though I was definately being targeted, I was just thinking about self preservation, but now that it seems it may not be a run-away vote for me, I'm going to have to reread some posts and decide who to vote for.
lol...you didnt answer the question...you get mad at me for voting on a hunch..everyone is today...the fact that you were acting in desperation and not really analyzing things makes me distrust you more...somethings just not right

[SnDvls]

What am I, chopped liver?


Yes you too. I even still have the PM's I sent you about how bad Eagles Fan was blown away by your lie.

[pennywisesb]

lol...you didnt answer the question...you get mad at me for voting on a hunch..everyone is today...the fact that you were acting in desperation and not really analyzing things makes me distrust you more...somethings just not right

It doesn't help that you are casting unfounded suspicion at me, and actually had 4-5 people jumping on the bandwagon (or at least stating that I was on the block) didn't help the situation. Everytime I try to give evidence all you give is your "gut feeling"--how can I argue with that?

Like I've stated in previous posts, I'm almost completely lost at this point as far as who is bad and who is good. So many people are flipflopping and the such that its making the game really hard to analyze. Plus, it doesn't help that people like RA, Tanglewood, Schmidty are all not really participating today. We can't get a read on any of them if they don't post.

[Blade6119]

It doesn't help that you are casting unfounded suspicion at me, and actually had 4-5 people jumping on the bandwagon (or at least stating that I was on the block) didn't help the situation. Everytime I try to give evidence all you give is your "gut feeling"--how can I argue with that?

Like I've stated in previous posts, I'm almost completely lost at this point as far as who is bad and who is good. So many people are flipflopping and the such that its making the game really hard to analyze. Plus, it doesn't help that people like RA, Tanglewood, Schmidty are all not really participating today. We can't get a read on any of them if they don't post.
Im asking you this though? What evidence has been presented on anyone else that is better then the 50/50 odds i feel i have with you. If you give me actualy evidence to vote for someone else i will swap my vote...we have a deal?

[KWhit]

KWhit, are you down with me giving the details?
I don't know. I'm leaning toward not revealing that at this point. I'm also more comfortable with trusting you than I am with Hoops. If anyone were to reveal it, I'd want it to be him so I could get a little closer to 100% with him. I'm not saying I distrust him, but he came to the party just a hair later than you did, so I trust him slightly less than you.

Also, I think it's a better idea to keep quiet on the details now, but that's just me.

[spleen1015]

Im asking you this though? What evidence has been presented on anyone else that is better then the 50/50 odds i feel i have with you. If you give me actualy evidence to vote for someone else i will swap my vote...we have a deal?

Once KWhit confirms he is okay with telling the secret, I think you will start to trust penny.

[spleen1015]

I don't know. I'm leaning toward not revealing that at this point. I'm also more comfortable with trusting you than I am with Hoops. If anyone were to reveal it, I'd want it to be him so I could get a little closer to 100% with him. I'm not saying I distrust him, but he came to the party just a hair later than you did, so I trust him slightly less than you.

Also, I think it's a better idea to keep quiet on the details now, but that's just me.

I don't think there was enough for hoops to figure it out. I think he is on our side. I think there are a couple of other folks who have keyed in on it as well that haven't told us they have.

At this point, I don't think we're going to trust anyone who claims they know anyway. So, why not give it up?

We may not know who else is on our side, but they'll know we're on theirs.

[Blade6119]

Once KWhit confirms he is okay with telling the secret, I think you will start to trust penny.
He just TKOd that idea...back to distrusting penny

[saldana]

holy crap, i cant think of a game where we were all running around in like chickens with our dicks cut off like this. i am out for work soon, and might be back in before i go, otherwise, i am out until 9pm eastern....hoops, i have reason to trust spleen, and by association you and kwhit. i have never been a big fan of following along with the leader in these games but if you guys got anything to give us a target, i will be back in time to change my vote, and i trust you more than i trust blade right now (read: i dont like the push on penny at all)

[SnDvls]

That read to me like he was allying himself with you guys...i havent seen another group form in the meantime


I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.

[Swaggs]

I don't think he needs to tell the secret.

I feel like he already has.

[spleen1015]

I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.

Going Sawyer on us, eh?

[Blade6119]

I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.
I meant swaggs, not you...sorry

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, the reason that I would like to put it out there is because I think that the relative sanctity of the role reveal hint is only going to decline.

Take the numbers we have, however many you think that is, and be happy with it.

Keep in mind that we are providing some information of value to the others as well if we offer full disclosure. Have you guys thought through that aspect of it? Just want to make sure before opening it up ...

I'm fine with reveal or no reveal. But going forward I won't be using the codewords as validation for anyone's role.

[pennywisesb]

Once KWhit confirms he is okay with telling the secret, I think you will start to trust penny.


Spleen1015 and KWit are definately in my circle of trust.

[KWhit]

He just TKOd that idea...back to distrusting penny
Well, we're telling you that a vote for penny right now is a bad idea. He is no where near 50-50. Is it possible that he is an other? Yes. But it is highly unlikely.

We have a good idea that he's clean. If you keep your vote on him you will look unbelievably suspicious in my book.

[spleen1015]

I don't think he needs to tell the secret.

I feel like he already has.

Probably not.

I like KWhit's idea of having hoops tell it to show us another sign of trust.

[pennywisesb]

I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.
What does this mean? I don't understand the freckles references, can someone fill me in?

[Blade6119]

holy crap, i cant think of a game where we were all running around in like chickens with our dicks cut off like this. i am out for work soon, and might be back in before i go, otherwise, i am out until 9pm eastern....hoops, i have reason to trust spleen, and by association you and kwhit. i have never been a big fan of following along with the leader in these games but if you guys got anything to give us a target, i will be back in time to change my vote, and i trust you more than i trust blade right now (read: i dont like the push on penny at all)
Your just jealous im dead sexy :D

In all seriousness, im just still feeling out this whole circle of trust you guys are forming...mine circle of trust would look far different, so im just poking and prodding

[spleen1015]

What does this mean? I don't understand the freckles references, can someone fill me in?

Freckles is the nickname that Sawyer has for Kate on the show.

[KWhit]

Keep in mind that we are providing some information of value to the others as well if we offer full disclosure. Have you guys thought through that aspect of it? Just want to make sure before opening it up ...
That's why I say sit on it. I feel pretty good about penny, but other than that, I think our ship has sailed on the use of our hint.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, just say the word and I'll put it out there. It isn't all that hard, once you know what to look for ... I think collectively we may have been a little too cute with this information over the last 15 or so hours for our own good.

[Desnudo]

I don't think he needs to tell the secret.

I feel like he already has.

Maybe I'll be completely suprised, but I agree.

[pennywisesb]

Im asking you this though? What evidence has been presented on anyone else that is better then the 50/50 odds i feel i have with you. If you give me actualy evidence to vote for someone else i will swap my vote...we have a deal?

Deal. I have a feeling the evidence will be presented soon. The problem is the 50/50 odds you have right now. I don't think there is a 50-50 chance on anyone right now of being an "other". I can't blame you for thinking that way, as with your train of thought it makes sense, I just think your train of thought is wrong, unless RA turns out to be an "other".

[spleen1015]

KWhit, just say the word and I'll put it out there. It isn't all that hard, once you know what to look for ... I think collectively we may have been a little too cute with this information over the last 15 or so hours for our own good.

It is a little vague, IMO. I do believe that someone could have figured it out, but it is highly unlikely to me.

[Blade6119]

Well, we're telling you that a vote for penny right now is a bad idea. He is no where near 50-50. Is it possible that he is an other? Yes. But it is highly unlikely.

We have a good idea that he's clean. If you keep your vote on him you will look unbelievably suspicious in my book.
Thats fair enough...you guys build your circle of trust and support it....raiders is far closer to my circle of trust then the word your group has put out so far....if i hear a reason to vote for someone else besides penny ill change, but telling me not to vote for penny alone doesnt do much. Ill go to player x and suddnely he will ally with player y and ill be in the same boat

[Blade6119]

Maybe I'll be completely suprised, but I agree.
Now desnudo is acting with this group....this group has gotten too big. Somebody is lying

[Blade6119]

Deal. I have a feeling the evidence will be presented soon. The problem is the 50/50 odds you have right now. I don't think there is a 50-50 chance on anyone right now of being an "other". I can't blame you for thinking that way, as with your train of thought it makes sense, I just think your train of thought is wrong, unless RA turns out to be an "other".
Evidence for someone else or just not for you?...

[hoopsguy]

Done - it stays vaulted.

I stated earlier that Penny may have cracked the code. For what it is worth, I don't think that is the case. His vague information, when looked at correctly, is almost 100% sure to vindicate him as a villager to a subset of the survivors.

This is why I'm struggling with the Day 1 vote - I do believe that there should be an "other" on him, based on observed voting patterns from previous werewolf games. But the people who are alive that had their votes on him at the end of the day all are in the upper 1/3 of trust for me. So am I off in trusting Blade and Raiders (not coupling them) or am I wrong in thinking that the others left a vote on King? Just trying to work this through in my mind ...

[KWhit]

Thats fair enough...you guys build your circle of trust and support it....raiders is far closer to my circle of trust then the word your group has put out so far....if i hear a reason to vote for someone else besides penny ill change, but telling me not to vote for penny alone doesnt do much. Ill go to player x and suddnely he will ally with player y and ill be in the same boat
How very odd.

[spleen1015]

I think I am going to go ahead and makes this play because I don't think it being a secret will be as much benefit as it being public knowledge. I also think it will make today's vote much easier.

[KWhit]

I think I am going to go ahead and makes this play because I don't think it being a secret will be as much benefit as it being public knowledge. I also think it will make today's vote much easier.
Then have hoops do it. That's fine by me.

[Blade6119]

How very odd.
How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any

[spleen1015]

Then have hoops do it. That's fine by me.

Works for me. hoops, spill it, dude.

[spleen1015]

How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any

I think you are about to.

[Blade6119]

i look forward to this

[Swaggs]

If it is more than a simple keyword, then I am lost.

[KWhit]

How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any
Facts? Ummm.... There are no facts yet, certainly none to implicate penny or exonerate Raiders.

[Desnudo]

Now desnudo is acting with this group....this group has gotten too big. Somebody is lying

I'm not associating myself with this group. I just think I know who they are.

[spleen1015]

If it is more than a simple keyword, then I am lost.
Indeed.

[Blade6119]

Facts? Ummm.... There are no facts yet, certainly none to implicate penny or exonerate Raiders.
I could say that same thing back to you :rolleyes:

[Blade6119]

dola, meaning to exonerate penny or implicate raiders

[spleen1015]

The history between Blade and KWhit is working aginst us, a little me thinks. You guys are on the same side...

...I think!

[hoopsguy]

OK, will take me a couple of minutes to put this together because I want to reference post #s and my detailed notes are at home. Information coming up on the "code".

[spleen1015]

OK, will take me a couple of minutes to put this together because I want to reference post #s and my detailed notes are at home. Information coming up on the "code".

You'll do better than me then. I wasn't going to reference the post #s.

[Swaggs]

My interest is certainly piqued. :)

[KWhit]

My point was that I find it illogical that you would think your "gut feel" would give you a better indication of who to vote for than a group of 3-4 people who are saying - "We're villagers. We absolutely have reason to trust one another. We have a very good reason to believe that you are voting for a villager. Vote for somebody else. We'd rather not tell you why at this point."

So either we're all Others (which would be incredibly stupid to group ourselves like that) or we're telling the truth. Either way it makes no sense to leave your vote where it is.

[KWhit]

Above post to Blade - I forgot to quote his post.

[Blade6119]

My point was that I find it illogical that you would think your "gut feel" would give you a better indication of who to vote for than a group of 3-4 people who are saying - "We're villagers. We absolutely have reason to trust one another. We have a very good reason to believe that you are voting for a villager. Vote for somebody else. We'd rather not tell you why at this point."

So either we're all Others (which would be incredibly stupid to group ourselves like that) or we're telling the truth. Either way it makes no sense to leave your vote where it is.
If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?

[KWhit]

If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?
Hell if I know - I haven't gotten that far yet. :)

You're the one convinced that there was an Other in the voting block for King. Either vote for Raiders or yourself!

:D

[hoopsguy]

Earlier I had stated that Blade earned some trust by coming out of the gates as the first person to vouch for himself as "survivor". That term was in my PM, he was the first to use it, so I gave him some credit for that. Right or wrong ... to be determined.

However, I should have paid much more attention when KWhit came out on post #69 and said
Hey guys. Just a simple survivor checking in.
The word "simple" is the flag, as that term was in my PM as well. It is a short PM, very little of substance in there. I had mentioned that earlier in post #128:
Blade, if you are a garden-variety survivor, then you can probably guess the other reason why I don't think it would be particularly cool for people to try and elaborate on their PMs. I don't want to spell it out and help the "others" with this message, but people who are survivors may be able to start building trust based on this non-reveal of a PM.
Anyways, I didn't catch the hint on the "simple" in KWhit's PM until after I had posted my trust list on Sunday in post #575. However, I did pick up with it when KWhit repeated this in post #640 about an hour later.

I'll be happy to say the same for the empath:

I'm not an other. I am a simple survivor.
Now, at this point Spleen had already started to align himself with KWhit. So I reviewed his posts, and noted his near-certainty in this, and formulated that Spleen either shared his role or had some connection to KWhit that allowed him to know the role.

I did a search for the use of the word "simple" over the first 500 posts of this thread to see who else might have used the term. There were two others who did use the word at some point, but not in the same context as KWhit. One was Blade (who is not indicating that he is a 'simple survivor' at this point) and one was mckerney. I'm not convinced that mckerney was dropping it as a hint for the rest of us, although I have considered the possibility.

I personally felt that this touched a little too closely to a PM reveal, but I did send a message to Ardent asking him about the use of the word. Once I received a reply from him I was more comfortable proceeding in this direction in terms of using it as some kind of a beacon for the others.

A little while ago Pennywise used the term, which is about the time that KWhit and Spleen said that they were starting to trust him. And I pulled my vote off of him, although only partly because of the word simple. The rest was because of the more detailed paraphrase of his PM, which closely aligns with my own.

KWhit, Spleen - please feel free to add any details you think I may not have covered.

[spleen1015]

If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?

I've already asked that everyone vote for Raiders. :D

[SnDvls]

penny - I haven't vote for you FYI. I wanted to hear something from you. I think I have that makes me a little less suspicious of you. I'm waiting for hoops info now, but it looks like one of our quiet people might find themselves in a bit of a bind once they log on.

[Blade6119]

Hell if I know - I haven't gotten that far yet. :)

You're the one convinced that there was an Other in the voting block for King. Either vote for Raiders or yourself!

:D
Neither are viable options in my mind with where i currently feel players are...and i have to go take a test so this revelation for me and my views will have to wait until micro economics has consumed my emotions :D

[spleen1015]

Earlier I had stated that Blade earned some trust by coming out of the gates as the first person to vouch for himself as "survivor". That term was in my PM, he was the first to use it, so I gave him some credit for that. Right or wrong ... to be determined.

However, I should have paid much more attention when KWhit came out on post #69 and said

The word "simple" is the flag, as that term was in my PM as well. It is a short PM, very little of substance in there. I had mentioned that earlier in post #128:

Anyways, I didn't catch the hint on the "simple" in KWhit's PM until after I had posted my trust list on Sunday in post #575. However, I did pick up with it when KWhit repeated this in post #640 about an hour later.


Now, at this point Spleen had already started to align himself with KWhit. So I reviewed his posts, and noted his near-certainty in this, and formulated that Spleen either shared his role or had some connection to KWhit that allowed him to know the role.

I did a search for the use of the word "simple" over the first 500 posts of this thread to see who else might have used the term. There were two others who did use the word at some point, but not in the same context as KWhit. One was Blade (who is not indicating that he is a 'simple survivor' at this point) and one was mckerney. I'm not convinced that mckerney was dropping it as a hint for the rest of us, although I have considered the possibility.

I personally felt that this touched a little too closely to a PM reveal, but I did send a message to Ardent asking him about the use of the word. Once I received a reply from him I was more comfortable proceeding in this direction in terms of using it as some kind of a beacon for the others.

A little while ago Pennywise used the term, which is about the time that KWhit and Spleen said that they were starting to trust him. And I pulled my vote off of him, although only partly because of the word simple. The rest was because of the more detailed paraphrase of his PM, which closely aligns with my own.

KWhit, Spleen - please feel free to add any details you think I may not have covered.


Exactly.

Here is the post I was going to make...

When my motives were questioned concerning my Day 1 vote, I felt I needed to do something to prove I wasn't a bad guy. I read my PM to see if there was anything in there that would be useful to those who got the same PM.

The words "simple survivor" were in the PM and figured I would use those as a clue.

When I was trying to dig up dirt on Blade, I noticed that KWhit used the same phrase when he checked in after roles were given out. It wasn't a coincidence.

Then, later on, this morning, hoops included the same phrase in one of his long posts. So, I started to trust him at that point.

penny used the same words in the post that KWhit and I noted.

I also think Swaggs recieved that same PM. That is why he thinks he can trust us, if we are who he is talking about.

So, the answer is simple, really. :D

I am a little surprised that this has been able to last this long. With all of the talk of PMs, I figured someone smart would figure it out. That's why we need to be leary of penny for now.

So, anyone else who got the same PM should know we're simple survivors as well. Of course, anyone claiming to be at this point can't be trusted on that alone.

[SnDvls]

where does this lead us back to then?

RA or king in my book

[Blade6119]

Alright then, ill play along...

Spleen, you ask me to follow you in not voting penny...fair enough...follow my lead in this one

VOTE ALANT

You have somewhat earned my trust...now get your friends to follow me in this vote(for alan, who started the vote against mr. w)..i have played up trust for him all day to see if he would react. He reacted how i expected. Nothing about odds, this is about play. If i had to bet anyone right now it would be ALANT...you want me to trust you, then you gotta give a little back too

[Blade6119]

dola

UNVOTE PENNY
VOTE ALANT

Never unvoted

[spleen1015]

Alright then, ill play along...

Spleen, you ask me to follow you in not voting penny...fair enough...follow my lead in this one

VOTE ALANT

You have somewhat earned my trust...now get your friends to follow me in this vote(for alan, who started the vote against mr. w)..i have played up trust for him all day to see if he would react. He reacted how i expected. Nothing about odds, this is about play. If i had to bet anyone right now it would be ALANT...you want me to trust you, then you gotta give a little back too

I'm not aginst voting for Alan, but I need something to go by here. Right now, I want to vote for Raiders. I need something to convince me other wise. I think we have given you something good to trust penny and the rest of us by.

[Schmidty]

Good lord. 5 more pages to read. :(

[SnDvls]

Good lord. 5 more pages to read. :(

just read the last two and you'll be caught up.

[Blade6119]

I'm not aginst voting for Alan, but I need something to go by here. Right now, I want to vote for Raiders. I need something to convince me other wise. I think we have given you something good to trust penny and the rest of us by.
Unfortunately i cant give you what you want at the current time for various reasons, so i can only reccomend this course of action over the one you want to take...trust me when i say that pains me not to help, but i cant at the current time on this matter

[SnDvls]

I'll join you Blade.

vote AlanT

if it ends in a two pony race between him and RA then that's only good for us.

[Blade6119]

Ill be back in an hour...

Spleen, if you say you trust me you will follow me in this matter...if you want to build a bigger circle of trust, vote alan...im fairly certain hes a wolf now

[spleen1015]

Unfortunately i cant give you what you want at the current time for various reasons, so i can only reccomend this course of action over the one you want to take...trust me when i say that pains me not to help, but i cant at the current time on this matter

This is why it sucks that I am going to be gone for the night in about an hour.

Dammit. I'll let you know before I sign off for the day.

[Desnudo]

Alright then, ill play along...

Spleen, you ask me to follow you in not voting penny...fair enough...follow my lead in this one

VOTE ALANT

You have somewhat earned my trust...now get your friends to follow me in this vote(for alan, who started the vote against mr. w)..i have played up trust for him all day to see if he would react. He reacted how i expected. Nothing about odds, this is about play. If i had to bet anyone right now it would be ALANT...you want me to trust you, then you gotta give a little back too

Can you give the lazy the cliff note's version of how he reacted?

[SnDvls]

Can you give the lazy the cliff note's version of how he reacted?

he hasn't to the vote yet, although I saw him lurking just on a moment ago so we should see soon.

[Alan T]

dola

UNVOTE PENNY
VOTE ALANT

Never unvoted


A curious move, since I mainly was pushing against the people who were blindly following your lead, I wonder why you suddenly are interested in removing me. I guess we will see how this goes, I don't have any alliance to save me nor any special role to reveal, so I'll be easy to take down if you have enough people hop on me like you did to Penny.

Wish I could do more to defend myself, but All I can go on is my actions.

[Blade6119]

Can you give the lazy the cliff note's version of how he reacted?
Not so much a reaction to any one thing...its his general demeanor...analyzing how he played his first two games(one wolf one villager) it just fits...

[Blade6119]

he hasn't to the vote yet, although I saw him lurking just on a moment ago so we should see soon.
he was lurking for quite some time to be exact....quite some time...during the whole reveal of trust thing

[Blade6119]

King is here...wouldnt mind hearing a comment from him...hes been awol for awhile

[Blade6119]

and im off to take the test...ill be back in about an hour and a half...i hope alan doesnt sway all of you before i get back lol

[Desnudo]

Not so much a reaction to any one thing...its his general demeanor...analyzing how he played his first two games(one wolf one villager) it just fits...

Can you be a little more specific? Like how is it different? I'm not against throwing a rock in the pond, but I'd like to know a little more.

[Alan T]

he was lurking for quite some time to be exact....quite some time...during the whole reveal of trust thing


Ive been on here all day, mainly been trying to see if Hoops was legit or not, and was interested in seeing what he had to say. Just didnt have much to comment on it until after his response.

[Alan T]

and im off to take the test...ill be back in about an hour and a half...i hope alan doesnt sway all of you before i get back lol


I doubt i will sway many anyone. I'm not quite as charasmatic as you are. My guess is this vote will go down to the same group of people who will follow your vote because you give people a reason to vote for someone. Just like with penny, people wanted to tag along to your reasoning as just something to go on. Im sure another group of people will likely not vote with you because of the normal reasons they don't seem to like your votes. And then a third group of people likely will just toss votes at other people wanting to stay out of another vote like day 1. Either way should be interesting to watch. Wish I could defend myself more, but its hard for me to defend myself against someone saying He's a wolf because I believe he is! :)

[KWhit]

I have no reason to trust or distrust Alan T at this point. I think there's likely a better choice out there.

Time to start digging.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if I vote for you it will be because I was already moving in that direction. Not to appease Blade. I'm not at the level of trust for him where I want to do that quite yet.

[PackerFanatic]

Holy balls, that is a lot of posts since last night...

[Alan T]

Alan, if I vote for you it will be because I was already moving in that direction. Not to appease Blade. I'm not at the level of trust for him where I want to do that quite yet.


I honestly don't really have any trust for anyone right now unfortunatly. I have a feeling that I won't have much in the way of support as I don't have any faction or such to speak. My main point earlier was simply people should give their reasons for why they vote someone, not just because "echo what whoever said" If people vote me to be lynched it will stink for me, but good for our team if enough people give their reasons for doing it, and give enough information to go on for the next day.

I feel better about you than I did since it seems a significant number of people trust you enough to think that group is likely not wolves, but I got in trouble just now for questioning what i felt was a bandwagon without any explanation other than from one person on someone I didnt feel confident to be a wolf. If I saved another innocent villager with those actions, then at least I acomplished something I hope before I go

[spleen1015]

I don't think I can move my vote at this point.

I am not confident in voting for Alan T. I was getting a feeling of trust from him earlier today and that feeling is still there right now.

Right now, I am still voting for Raiders. That could change int he next hour before I go, but I doubt it. If I was going to be here for the entire time this evening, I would be more willing to change my vote because I'd have time to change it back.

Once 4pm EST gets here, I will be unable to change my vote for the rest of the night, so I need to stand pat.

Sorry, Blade. Hopefully, I can show you the same level of trust on Day 3. If I was going to be around tonight, I think I would be with you.

[PackerFanatic]

You can all trust me....:)

[Swaggs]

For what it is worth, I am not sure whether or not Blade is a survivor or other, but I feel like he is lying about his role.

He has the ability to see night actions (maybe someone slipped him a note?).

He has the ability to kill up to two others if they try to attack him, but would die a simple death if lynched. I don't buy this. I do not see any possible way that you would reveal this or be so accusatory in the early game. If I had this power, I would be quiet and lay low, hoping that the others would try to pick me off. Also, I watch Lost and I do not feel like these powers, beyond observational and, perhaps, being able to tell whether one of us is good/evil, fits into the "character" of the Black Smoke on the show. There is also no indication that the Black Smoke is something that can even be attacked. Someone like Sawyer or Locke seem more likely to be able to counter-attack, in my opinion.

And he has some other knowledge about AlanT?

This just seems like too powerful of a character to me.

[Alan T]

I'll join you Blade.

vote AlanT

if it ends in a two pony race between him and RA then that's only good for us.


I don't like that you voted for me, but can you at least give your reasons to? Right now this feels exactly like Penny's vote did earlier that I protested to. Someone playing on a hunch then alot of other people just following along without giving any reasons. If everyone just votes without reasons, it makes it far too easy for wolves to slip in there and hide.

[KWhit]

For what it is worth, I am not sure whether or not Blade is a survivor or other, but I feel like he is lying about his role.

He has the ability to see night actions (maybe someone slipped him a note?).

He has the ability to kill up to two others if they try to attack him, but would die a simple death if lynched. I don't buy this. I do not see any possible way that you would reveal this or be so accusatory in the early game. If I had this power, I would be quiet and lay low, hoping that the others would try to pick me off. Also, I watch Lost and I do not feel like these powers, beyond observational and, perhaps, being able to tell whether one of us is good/evil, fits into the "character" of the Black Smoke on the show. There is also no indication that the Black Smoke is something that can even be attacked. Someone like Sawyer or Locke seem more likely to be able to counter-attack, in my opinion.

And he has some other knowledge about AlanT?

This just seems like too powerful of a character to me.
I'm with you. Something is definitely not right there. He has even hinted that there is more to his role than he is letting on, which would make him even more powerful.

[kingfc22]

still trying to catch up...

[Desnudo]

For what it is worth, I am not sure whether or not Blade is a survivor or other, but I feel like he is lying about his role.

He has the ability to see night actions (maybe someone slipped him a note?).

He has the ability to kill up to two others if they try to attack him, but would die a simple death if lynched. I don't buy this. I do not see any possible way that you would reveal this or be so accusatory in the early game. If I had this power, I would be quiet and lay low, hoping that the others would try to pick me off. Also, I watch Lost and I do not feel like these powers, beyond observational and, perhaps, being able to tell whether one of us is good/evil, fits into the "character" of the Black Smoke on the show. There is also no indication that the Black Smoke is something that can even be attacked. Someone like Sawyer or Locke seem more likely to be able to counter-attack, in my opinion.

And he has some other knowledge about AlanT?

This just seems like too powerful of a character to me.

Agree. Like I said earlier, I think there's some truth in the story, but we need to either verify it or clarify what is the real deal. My impression is that he seems to be trying to walk a line where he gives the Others a reason not to kill him at night and us not to hang him during the day.

[SnDvls]

I don't like that you voted for me, but can you at least give your reasons to? Right now this feels exactly like Penny's vote did earlier that I protested to. Someone playing on a hunch then alot of other people just following along without giving any reasons. If everyone just votes without reasons, it makes it far too easy for wolves to slip in there and hide.


I didn't vote for penny.

just like I said I'd like to make it a two pony race. It seems the hoops group is leaning towards RA. right now it's early and you have 2 votes with at least 2 or 3 other people out there with 1. let's see how the group that is all vouching for eachother plays this out. I don't think you have anything to worry about right now with only 2 votes on you and several in the click not moving onto you either. I mostly trust Blade and I'll throw my vote here until I see otherwise.

[Alan T]

I didn't vote for penny.

just like I said I'd like to make it a two pony race. It seems the hoops group is leaning towards RA. right now it's early and you have 2 votes with at least 2 or 3 other people out there with 1. let's see how the group that is all vouching for eachother plays this out. I don't think you have anything to worry about right now with only 2 votes on you and several in the click not moving onto you either. I mostly trust Blade and I'll throw my vote here until I see otherwise.


Thanks for the reasoning, thats all I was looking for. I'm not really worried because there isn't much anything I can do unfortunatly to save myself here. All I can go on is my actions and my well meaning attempts to try to get us in the right directcion :)

[SnDvls]

Thanks for the reasoning, thats all I was looking for. I'm not really worried because there isn't much anything I can do unfortunatly to save myself here. All I can go on is my actions and my well meaning attempts to try to get us in the right directcion :)


you might not be able to save yourself, but someone else might be albe to ala a duke role, if it even exists in this game. I'm more than willing to listen, but right now we've got nothing to go on. If I were you I'd really want to know where the hoops group is going at this point because that should be three votes right there.

[Swaggs]

Can someone present the case against RA to me?

Not that there is always a good, conclusive reason to vote against someone this early, but if others are seeing stuff than I am not, I'd appreciate the knowledge.

[Celeval]

21 players.

2 dead, both named.
4? assumed to be "simple survivors".

That leaves 15 players.

If we're to make the assumption that a simple survivor has a name that is not associated with them except for flavor upon death, then we're looking at 6 (7 including me for me, since I know me; or you for you if you're not a special) known non-specials, and 1 self-identified special.

If we're to make the assumption that if you're named, then you have a role, then we've already lost two specials, know a third, and know about 4 (5) non-specials.

How does that match up with the breakdown of specials/non-specials in previous games?

[KWhit]

Another thing that seems odd to me is that Blade claims AE gave him the choice of which group to align himself with. He could either win if the survivors win or he could win if the Others win. If I were creating a game, I don't think I'd give him that choice as his decision would affect game balance.

He also made this comment in post #140.
As much as it pisses me off im not an "other" either...im honestly wondering if GMs actively make me a non-wolf...its like they dont want me to have fun...ive actually begun and indian dance ritual i call "rain evil please." its really getting annoying...hell, i bet sun is a wolf again...hes a wolf every damn game...sun always taking my spot http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

YOU HEAR THAT ARDENT!!! IM ON TO YOUR GAME!!!!! http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/mad.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/mad.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/mad.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/mad.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/eek.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/eek.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/eek.gif http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/wink.gif
Yes, the post was made somewhat jokingly, but I think if he were given the choice like he claims, I think it's very possible he would have chosen to be affiliated with the Others.

[Alan T]

21 players.

2 dead, both named.
4? assumed to be "simple survivors".

That leaves 15 players.

If we're to make the assumption that a simple survivor has a name that is not associated with them except for flavor upon death, then we're looking at 6 (7 including me for me, since I know me; or you for you if you're not a special) known non-specials, and 1 self-identified special.

If we're to make the assumption that if you're named, then you have a role, then we've already lost two specials, know a third, and know about 4 (5) non-specials.

How does that match up with the breakdown of specials/non-specials in previous games?


Usually like 3-5 good roles and then 2-3 bad roles for a game this size I guess.

[Desnudo]

Can someone present the case against RA to me?

Not that there is always a good, conclusive reason to vote against someone this early, but if others are seeing stuff than I am not, I'd appreciate the knowledge.

I believe the crux of the argument is that the wolves would be likely to spread their votes out, so that someone who voted for King is likely an Other. Then you look at who is in that group and RA is the one that pops out as most suspicious. Or the least unsuspicious.

Besides that, nothing comes to mind that really implicates RA. Of course we are still on day 2, so I would be shocked if we had a lock, stock, and barrel situation.

[spleen1015]

Can someone present the case against RA to me?

Not that there is always a good, conclusive reason to vote against someone this early, but if others are seeing stuff than I am not, I'd appreciate the knowledge.

I voted for RA because he voted for me. If he were a simple survivor like me, I don't see any reason to vote for me. Maybe he didn't see the clues or maybe he got a different PM. I made this vote before I realized that, but that is not enough cause for me to move the vote, IMO.

I haven't been given any reason to move that vote and there are a lot of folks you have him on their mistrust list...

I'm not going to move my vote without cause. It just doesn't make any sense to me to do so.

[Swaggs]

Another thing that seems odd to me is that Blade claims AE gave him the choice of which group to align himself with. He could either win if the survivors win or he could win if the Others win. If I were creating a game, I don't think I'd give him that choice as his decision would affect game balance.

He also made this comment in post #140.

Yes, the post was made somewhat jokingly, but I think if he were given the choice like he claims, I think it's very possible he would have chosen to be affiliated with the Others.


and, if true, why align so early? If his goal is to win, then wouldn't the smart money be on waiting a few days to see how things shake out?

[SnDvls]

anyone got a vote breakdown or now what post # the last one was on?

[SnDvls]

dola - know not now damn!!

[Alan T]

This is today's so far:

(523) Blade votes pennywise (1)
(576) spleen votes blade (1)
(595) mckerney votes pennywise (2)
(701) hoopsguy votes pennywise (3)
(720) raiders votes spleen (1)
(728) spleen UNVOTES Blade (0)
(728) spleen votes raiders (1)
(730) Alan votes mckerney (1)
(775) Celeval votes kwhit (1)
(788) Saldana votes Celeval (1)
(858) hoops UNVOTES Pennywise (2)
(946) blade UNVOTES pennywise (1)
(946) blade votes Alan T (1)
(951) sndvls votes Alan T (2)

[SnDvls]

and, if true, why align so early? If his goal is to win, then wouldn't the smart money be on waiting a few days to see how things shake out?


usually you have to choose in this role prior to day 1 getting underway. I've seen it talked about in other WW threads.

[spleen1015]

Another thing that seems odd to me is that Blade claims AE gave him the choice of which group to align himself with. He could either win if the survivors win or he could win if the Others win. If I were creating a game, I don't think I'd give him that choice as his decision would affect game balance.

He also made this comment in post #140.

Yes, the post was made somewhat jokingly, but I think if he were given the choice like he claims, I think it's very possible he would have chosen to be affiliated with the Others.

Man. This doesn't look good to me either KWhit. Nice find.

[kingfc22]

I can not remember a WW game with so many people forming small groups. Just seems odd to me.

As far as Blade's reveal goes, I'm not sure how much I buy it. I have the same thoughts that Swaggs posted in post #971. I think Blade has a role, but I don't see how it can be the swiss-army knife of roles. It almost seems like he is a witness, blessed, and counter-attacker.

For today's vote, I was leaning towards penny before I read these last eight zillion posts, but I'm inclined to believe spleen and hoops right now. I just buy there story more if you will. That leaves RA and Blade that voted for me on day 1. I know that I'm not an other, so that gives me a 50/50 shot at hitting one since I do believe that at least one other voted for me. I highly doubt that a single other did not vote for me.

So with that said I'm going to....


VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, I thought the exact same thing on Blad'es role earlier, but was in "read-only" mode while I was at my client site earlier this morning. Glad that you brought this up.

I don't think our "group" is going to be voting in lockstep. Spleen has made it pretty clear he is out for the night soon and will likely leave his vote on Raiders. I would need a lot of convincing to put my vote on Raiders.

Desnudo and Alan T are the guys that I expressed unease about earlier and I'm not in any better place on either one as of now. I voted initially for Tanglewood on Day 1 but didn't find anyone willing to head that direction with me. If I'm going to be wrong on my vote, I guess I would rather be wrong and vote out someone who is playing the role of a mime in this game. Alan T and Desnudo both offer more risk/reward; given some information to work with I think my vote is likely to end up on one of them.

Assuming there is a seer in this game, who would you want them to look at tonight?
1.) Going to assume neither Charlie or Hurley was the seer
2.) I don't think I've played in a WW game yet that didn't involve a seer
3.) I would probably have them scope out Blade or Alan T (assuming they are both around post-lynch). I'm always willing to be scanned, but I don't think that is optimal because it won't reveal an other and because I think I've started to gather some measure of trust.

[spleen1015]

What exactly does a seer do?

[Desnudo]

9. tanglewood
10. Schmidty
21. bearcat729

People who have hardly been heard from. Unless there's a pressing need to ensure a tie break or some real evidence comes forward, I think my vote will go to one of these three.

[spleen1015]

9. tanglewood
10. Schmidty
21. bearcat729

People who have hardly been heard from. Unless there's a pressing need to ensure a tie break or some real evidence comes forward, I think my vote will go to one of these three.

I have a hard time believing a wolf is among the inactive. I haven't even seen those guys browsing the thread much. A wolf is such an important part of the game. You have to be paying attention.

Being a wolf is too important to be inactive.

[hoopsguy]

Another thing to keep in mind on our "group" as it stands right now - if there is a conversion power in the game for the others, then it is probably heading towards one of us tonight or tomorrow at the latest. I would think waiting is only an option if we lynch a survivor today.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, a wolf can view the site as a guest instead of being logged in.

Right now there are 8 members and 4 guests viewing the thread.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, a wolf can view the site as a guest instead of being logged in.

Right now there are 8 members and 4 guests viewing the thread.

There you have it. Experience. :D

[Alan T]

Spleen, a wolf can view the site as a guest instead of being logged in.

Right now there are 8 members and 4 guests viewing the thread.

Has there ever been a wolf who played the pretending to not be around game to slide by? I have seen a few who were really quiet, but you saw them in the thread from time to time.

[spleen1015]

How do the GMs pick who gets what role? Do they go random or pick themselves?

Do they all do it differently?

[Desnudo]

I have a hard time believing a wolf is among the inactive. I haven't even seen those guys browsing the thread much. A wolf is such an important part of the game. You have to be paying attention.

Being a wolf is too important to be inactive.

Maybe. I think the strategy outlined by Alan T last game involved having a vocal and a quiet. I'm not convinced any of the three are others, but I'm also not convinced that either Alan T or RA is. Absent any decent evidence besides speculation, I'm inclined to get rid of people who aren't contributing anything. Also, towards the end game, people who haven't participated at all can create really confusing situations, even if they are innocent.