Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win!

[PackerFanatic]

or not, doh!

[PackerFanatic]

Dar we go, hehe

[Celeval]

One other thing we learn from this - as is evident from hoops' corpse, he was exactly that simple survivor as has been talked about. Which means that the characters we've seen - Charlie, Hurley and Jack - were likely all specials. So not only are we down 4 villagers, but we're down 3 specials and no wolves in sight.

[path12]

I'm actually starting to understand a little how Blade feels sometimes. I was going to put my spreadsheet from last game together, but honestly, I'm feeling selfish right now. In that right now I don't really care if the survivors win if I die before the game ends.

Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.

[Blade6119]

One other thing we learn from this - as is evident from hoops' corpse, he was exactly that simple survivor as has been talked about. Which means that the characters we've seen - Charlie, Hurley and Jack - were likely all specials. So not only are we down 4 villagers, but we're down 3 specials and no wolves in sight.
After this full day cycle i think we will be in sight...if not in the rear-view mirror...either alan/desnudo or sun are wolves...crazy idea#1 is that all 3 are

[PackerFanatic]

Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.

Very much agreed.

[path12]

After this full day cycle i think we will be in sight...if not in the rear-view mirror...either alan/desnudo or sun are wolves...crazy idea#1 is that all 3 are

The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.

[Desnudo]

You know whats funny, the two people im most sure are wovles, desnudo and alan, have been the two ive agreed with the most recently...which worries me for good and bad reasons...

What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.

[Blade6119]

The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.
Basically, i see it as wolves and a special human role or all wolves...wolves know im good, and certain human roles could as well(seer, witness, bodyguard, empath could all know)

[Blade6119]

What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.
2 things

-I accused you of being linked with alan BEFORE sndvls made any move on alan

-what the hell has sndvls claimed to be?

[Desnudo]

Des, I for one would find it very helpful if you would post your spreadsheet.

I will post it later. Sorry, I didn't mean to be melodramatic about it. Some of that post was just venting. It's not a whole lot of fun being the inquisitioned. I like being the inquisitor better.

[Desnudo]

2 things

-I accused you of being linked with alan BEFORE sndvls made any move on alan

-what the hell has sndvls claimed to be?

Don't get what you're saying?

Sawyer, aka the duke

[Blade6119]

Don't get what you're saying?

Sawyer, aka the duke
Now i get your point one after your idea on point two. I wasnt thinking lynch, i was thinking night kill...i was wondering how he was sure i couldnt kill him. I want to wait a bit to see if anyone reacts, as i had someone else pegged as the duke...but this is very interesting

[Desnudo]

What I find funny the Comic Book Guy level irony of you coming after me tonight if SunDvls chooses Alan. I should have known something like this would happen.

Personally, I believe SunDvls is who he says he is. Someone would have disputed it earlier if he wasn't.

I think I see. Blade, I was commenting on the irony of you coming to kill me in the game after our blow-up earlier.

[SnDvls]

The thing I'm having the most problem with is that both Sun and Alan are saying not to vote for you, even though you're positive at least one of them or both are other.


the reason I say vote Alan or I is simple.

let's say Alan and I were both misled and we are both villagers. It dams Blade and in my opinion clears Desnudo.

If I'm a wolf and Alan is a villager it dams blade and clears Desnudo

If Alan is a wolf then I am a villager and I think it pretty much clears Blade.

in any case we get two known villagers out of the deal.

[Blade6119]

I think I see. Blade, I was commenting on the irony of you coming to kill me in the game after our blow-up earlier.
lol, short term memory...i had honestly forgotten...but now that you mention it

[Alan T]

the reason I say vote Alan or I is simple.

let's say Alan and I were both misled and we are both villagers. It dams Blade and in my opinion clears Desnudo.

If I'm a wolf and Alan is a villager it dams blade and clears Desnudo

If Alan is a wolf then I am a villager and I think it pretty much clears Blade.

in any case we get two known villagers out of the deal.


no, if I die to the lynch today, don't go after Blade. Thats the one thing i am trying to make clear. Also, I wouldn't clear Desnudo at my death either. I think he is doing the same thing to me that you are doing with Blade right now. I don't think we want to have any more confusion from a survivor's lynching.

I think its very clear cut here if I get lynched and turn out to be the villager I say, it condemns one person : Sundvls.

If he gets lynched and ends up a villager, then fine, come after me. I misread him bad enough to deserve that death.

I think Desnudo and Raiders still need to be scrutinized on their own merits after this regardless of what happens. Blade needs to not be voted for, thats all I am saying here.

[Desnudo]

lol, short term memory...i had honestly forgotten...but now that you mention it

Well forget I brought it up. ;) Set security to: Schmidty

Anyway, I looked back and saw the night comment.

I took the duke role from this:

"Alan & Desnudo which of you boys wants to go down, because I know it won't be me?"

If he can shield himself from a night kill too then it's obviously an expanded role.

[Swaggs]

Well forget I brought it up. ;) Set security to: Schmidty

Anyway, I looked back and saw the night comment.

I took the duke role from this:

"Alan & Desnudo which of you boys wants to go down, because I know it won't be me?"

If he can shield himself from a night kill too then it's obviously an expanded role.

If he is in a duke-role, as it sounds like, I think he is pretty much saying he will kill you or Alan if he is lynched. I don't see anything regarding a night kill.

[Blade6119]

If he is in a duke-role, as it sounds like, I think he is pretty much saying he will kill you or Alan if he is lynched. I don't see anything regarding a night kill.
Blade - I'm telling you I won't die tonight period you can read into it all you want.
Thats what were talking about...he talked about the duke in another post

[Swaggs]

Thats what were talking about...he talked about the duke in another post

So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke. :)

[Blade6119]

So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke. :)
if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?

[Poli]

It looks like I'm going to have a lot of fun counting the votes again. ;)

[SnDvls]

So, he's either bluffing (very well) or he is the duke. :)


Not bluffing even though I am Sawyer who on the show is a con man.

[SnDvls]

if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?


it doesn't I ment tonight as in the lynch tonight or night lynch not night kill.

[Blade6119]

Outside of my comments do you have much reason to go after alan?

[SnDvls]

no, if I die to the lynch today, don't go after Blade. Thats the one thing i am trying to make clear. Also, I wouldn't clear Desnudo at my death either. I think he is doing the same thing to me that you are doing with Blade right now. I don't think we want to have any more confusion from a survivor's lynching.

I think its very clear cut here if I get lynched and turn out to be the villager I say, it condemns one person : Sundvls.

If he gets lynched and ends up a villager, then fine, come after me. I misread him bad enough to deserve that death.

I think Desnudo and Raiders still need to be scrutinized on their own merits after this regardless of what happens. Blade needs to not be voted for, thats all I am saying here.


how is it clear cut that a villager duke-role condems me for picking another villager? It means you and I were both misled. I don't know where you are getting your info from that you believe I'm an other, but mine is coming from me believing blade who thinks you are an other.

[SnDvls]

Outside of my comments do you have much reason to go after alan?


his quick vote on me for one. after last night I pulled off him. I started to belive that he was good. This is the thanks I get for it. I made a mistake pulling off him last night and giving him another night. It won't happen with the lynch tonight.

[Blade6119]

his quick vote on me for one. after last night I pulled off him. I started to belive that he was good. This is the thanks I get for it. I made a mistake pulling off him last night and giving him another night. It won't happen with the lynch tonight.
I want to make sure you are aware i dont have facts...only gut feelings...some of which im still forming...

is your role repeatable?

[SnDvls]

I want to make sure you are aware i dont have facts...only gut feelings...some of which im still forming...

you sure were gunning for him earlier. even going so far as to say if you died to go after Alan T, why the change in heart?

[Blade6119]

you sure were gunning for him earlier. even going so far as to say if you died to go after Alan T, why the change in heart?
Becuase if i had died it would of been because i was too close. Wolves wouldnt have taken a shot of losing two wolves if they werent desperate. In my humble opinion, desnudo and alan are both wolves...but the possibility lies they are special human roles. The fact he says he knows for sure im clean enters the possibility of seer into my head, as well as witness, as well as bodyguard, but more then anything empath.

Lost has been a game of clues, so i can easily see an empath role that allowed the user to check 2 statements(thats the norm for that role)...and today he says he knows for sure two people are safe...myself, and the person i voted for before alan...just thinking out all roles

[SnDvls]

okay all you quiet one's I want you opinion no this. That means I honestly don't want to hear what Alan, Blade or Desnudo have to say.

What are the benefits of keeping and or killing the above three people?

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?

[Blade6119]

you said you didnt want a response, but ive made it clear i will kill tonight...that should clear me

[SnDvls]

Blade, think about my MO in other WW games. When I'm on the line I plead to be spared to prove myself tomorrow I'm askiing to be put on the line tonight it doesn't fit my MO. I'm not that good of a WW player to be lying.

[Blade6119]

Blade, think about my MO in other WW games. When I'm on the line I plead to be spared to prove myself tomorrow I'm askiing to be put on the line tonight it doesn't fit my MO. I'm not that good of a WW player to be lying.
I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...im just trying to make sure i get the discussion in on who to duke before i do. its possible only one of them is bad, maybe even none...im working through everything so we get the best result.

You never answered me, is it repeatable

[Swaggs]

if he is the duke, how does that effect his night action invulnerability?

I'm not sure what you mean about invulnerability, but I will give my opinions none the less. :)

I think he probably screwed up by making things so clear, although there could be some very helpful confusion (more on that in a moment).

The duke should be a bad cop when it comes to lynching. Stepping on toes and pushing hard to see how people react. Since he is really in no danger of being lynched, he can be the attack dog, which is a powerful position to be in.

However, once he has used his action (of subbing himself or someone else out of being lynched and putting someone else in their place), he is kind of in no man's name. To the survivors, he is clearly not an other, so he will not be lynched. However, since he is clearly a survivor, he is in danger of being killed at night, because he is basically just a placeholder and is not an other-friendly role, that increases the odds of us picking an other during a lynch.

Now, where the helpful confusion comes in, is that our bodyguard can protect him as often as possible and hopefully make the others waste a night kill turn. It will give the others a lot to think about.

[Swaggs]

okay all you quiet one's I want you opinion no this. That means I honestly don't want to hear what Alan, Blade or Desnudo have to say.

What are the benefits of keeping and or killing the above three people?

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?

For what it is worth, I would put those three with Saldana as my prime suspects right now.

That said, I am now leaning towards Sndvls, if he is going to pick off one of those two, like he said. Should clear a lot up.

[pennywisesb]

I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...


Thats one of the best ideas you've had all game. I was thinking the same thing. If we vote to lynch SnDvls, we will have alot more to go on tomorrow than just voting AlanT. If SnDvls is a wolf, he's dead, and if he's the duke he can use his duchy powers and move the kill to who he chooses. I like this idea.

[pennywisesb]

Vote SnDvls

[Raiders Army]

Got caught up. Bad, bad, thing that hoops got taken out. I changed my mind, I'm not going to the bunker.

I think spleen might be good after all. hoops vouched for him, so that's good enough for me. I'm going to have to take a look at this SnDvls/AlanT showdown.

[pennywisesb]

Do you think I'm being played by Blade?


I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.

[Raiders Army]

I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.
I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.

[Alan T]

Ok, I still feel to some extend Sndvls is bluffing, let me use this reasoning, if I was an other, I would know he wasnt one. Since he had previously hinted to being Sawyer which people had mentioned as a duke before in this thread, why would I go head to head with the duke?

But at this point, I don't think this vote is about being reasonable, I think this vote is purely mathematical. I have a strong feeling the last two day votes were manipulated by wolves to make them the way they were to leave us less clues. I have been the very first vote on all three days on my particular person, so there is very little manipulating that i could have done thus far. But to prevent any further manipulating to be done today, here are our choices:

A) Sndvls is good, and I am bad. You vote to lynch me = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

B) Sndvls is bad, I am good and you all vote to lynch me = villager dead, tommorrow sndvls is lynched, Wolf dead is Good. however 1 wasted day.

C) Sndvls is good, I am bad and you vote to lynch Sndvls = He uses his duke role on me and I am dead anyways. 1 villager confirmed, 1 wolf dead, no time wasted. Good!

D) Snvls is bad, I am good, and you vote to lynch Sndvls = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

E) Sndvls is good and I am good , you vote me = I die, fingers point at Sndvls, and tommorrows vote to kill him shows another innocent villager. 2 days wasted, no ground gained. BAD!

F) Sndvls is good, and I am good, you vote Sndvls = He uses duke role on me, I die, show to be an innocent, but you clear Sndvls, so bad a villager is dead, but only 1 wasted day involved.


Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.

Right now I think the only option is to vote Sndvls and he has to duke me if he is not bluffing. It sucks for me if he is not bluffing, as yet another WW day 3 death for me, but its the best interest of our villagers in my opinion.

I honestly will have severe doubts about anyone who goes against the strategy, especially people purposely trying to force a tie in case the tiebreaker was a one time thing only.

[path12]

I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.

Ditto.

[Alan T]

I trust Blade and if I'm being played, then I'm being played really well.

Since I don't think it will harm anything at this point (hopefully), he hasn't been playing anyone. He just didn't want to die before getting a second chance to assasinate someone at night. All of the lies and mistrusts from people about what he has said has been purely so he stays alive to be able to fufill his role.

[path12]

Since I don't think it will harm anything at this point (hopefully), he hasn't been playing anyone. He just didn't want to die before getting a second chance to assasinate someone at night. All of the lies and mistrusts from people about what he has said has been purely so he stays alive to be able to fufill his role.

And you know this a) for a fact? and b) because?

[SnDvls]

I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf...im just trying to make sure i get the discussion in on who to duke before i do. its possible only one of them is bad, maybe even none...im working through everything so we get the best result.

You never answered me, is it repeatable


I didn't answer you on purpose. Don't want too much info out there.

[pennywisesb]

Ok, I still feel to some extend Sndvls is bluffing, let me use this reasoning, if I was an other, I would know he wasnt one. Since he had previously hinted to being Sawyer which people had mentioned as a duke before in this thread, why would I go head to head with the duke?

But at this point, I don't think this vote is about being reasonable, I think this vote is purely mathematical. I have a strong feeling the last two day votes were manipulated by wolves to make them the way they were to leave us less clues. I have been the very first vote on all three days on my particular person, so there is very little manipulating that i could have done thus far. But to prevent any further manipulating to be done today, here are our choices:

A) Sndvls is good, and I am bad. You vote to lynch me = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

B) Sndvls is bad, I am good and you all vote to lynch me = villager dead, tommorrow sndvls is lynched, Wolf dead is Good. however 1 wasted day.

C) Sndvls is good, I am bad and you vote to lynch Sndvls = He uses his duke role on me and I am dead anyways. 1 villager confirmed, 1 wolf dead, no time wasted. Good!

D) Snvls is bad, I am good, and you vote to lynch Sndvls = Wolf dead, no time wasted GOOD!

E) Sndvls is good and I am good , you vote me = I die, fingers point at Sndvls, and tommorrows vote to kill him shows another innocent villager. 2 days wasted, no ground gained. BAD!

F) Sndvls is good, and I am good, you vote Sndvls = He uses duke role on me, I die, show to be an innocent, but you clear Sndvls, so bad a villager is dead, but only 1 wasted day involved.


Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.

Right now I think the only option is to vote Sndvls and he has to duke me if he is not bluffing. It sucks for me if he is not bluffing, as yet another WW day 3 death for me, but its the best interest of our villagers in my opinion.

I honestly will have severe doubts about anyone who goes against the strategy, especially people purposely trying to force a tie in case the tiebreaker was a one time thing only.

Very nice analysis. I'm sticking with SnDvls for these very reasons.

[kingfc22]

Just got home and wow 31 pages now.

[kingfc22]

Just realized this day ends tomorrow. What's up with that?!

[path12]

Just realized this day ends tomorrow. What's up with that?!

Night actions took awhile and with VDay and all there were going to be people unavailable -- but I believe AE is willing to move up if the votes are there.

[pennywisesb]

Night actions took awhile and with VDay and all there were going to be people unavailable -- but I believe AE is willing to move up if the votes are there.

Hopefully this is the case or else its going to be hard to facilitate discussion the rest of the night.

[path12]

Well, I'll do my part then, since I'll likely be one of those people not around much tonight....

VOTE ALAN T

Going with Blade while I'm still looking over the past few days.

[Swaggs]

Vote is due tomorrow night, correct?

[kingfc22]

I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf.I don't like jumping on an idea after it has been posted, but this was my exact thought as I was catching up.

If SnDvls is the duke then he will be cleared and then he can kill Alan or Desnudo. That way we make 2 players roles (simple or not) known which is only going to help us in the long run.

And if he is not, then he will die an other.http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

VOTE SNDVLS

[Celeval]

Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.
A reasonable set of arguments. One hole I see: what if Sndvls is a survivor, but is bluffing about his role? I'm not against it, and am leaning this way so far, but throwing it out there.

Side question around how things generally work... I've gotten the impression that at times there are duplicates of roles. What happens if a Duke is targeted, pings off to another character, and that character is also a Duke. Pinball lynches? :-D

[Desmond]

I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.

Agreed.

[SnDvls]

A reasonable set of arguments. One hole I see: what if Sndvls is a survivor, but is bluffing about his role? I'm not against it, and am leaning this way so far, but throwing it out there.

I'm not lying and I highly doubt there is more than one duke-like role.

[SnDvls]

Vote is due tomorrow night, correct?

correct tomorrow @ 9 PM CST

[SnDvls]

Vote SnDvls

besides just to keep it on Alan or I any other reason for voting me over Alan?
this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[SnDvls]

Well, I'll do my part then, since I'll likely be one of those people not around much tonight....

VOTE ALAN T

Going with Blade while I'm still looking over the past few days.


any other reason other than following blade? this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[Desmond]

Kinda glad we're not voting till tommorow, id like to see some more debate from these 2 sides and how others line up.

[SnDvls]

I don't like jumping on an idea after it has been posted, but this was my exact thought as I was catching up.

If SnDvls is the duke then he will be cleared and then he can kill Alan or Desnudo. That way we make 2 players roles (simple or not) known which is only going to help us in the long run.

And if he is not, then he will die an other.http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

VOTE SNDVLS

any other reason other than following Blade and clearing me on your vote?

this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[SnDvls]

Kinda glad we're not voting till tommorow, id like to see some more debate from these 2 sides and how others line up.


that's what I'm trying to get out of the voters now.

[SnDvls]

I didn't answer you on purpose. Don't want too much info out there.


should add just like you didn't give out your full role. you scare me with this question. As a survivor you know not to ask this question with such an important role that I have.

[kingfc22]

any other reason other than following Blade and clearing me on your vote?

this will help in future analysis, thanks.No I'm not following Blade as I rarely do in these games.

Like I posted earlier, as I was catching up I had the same feeling that Blade did. If I was on earlier (I was at work) I would have posted this thought and then everyone would be following me not Blade.

And are you going to ask everyone the same question that votes for you today? Just curious.

[Celeval]

Vote SnDvls

I think you're bluffing.

[SnDvls]

And are you going to ask everyone the same question that votes for you today? Just curious.


actually I'm asking everyone the same question as I want it know why as I'll be around after the lynch so we know where people stand and why to help us catch the others.

[SnDvls]

Vote SnDvls

I think you're bluffing.


thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right. ;)

[Celeval]

thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right. ;)
Fair enough. If you Duke it over to Alan, you'll get both apologies and trust. :)

[saldana]

there are two possiblities as i see it at this point

1. sndvls is the duke, and he is going to whack alan or desnudo if the vote falls on him.

2. sndvls is the brutal other, assuming there is one, and when we vote for him, he is going to whack whichever one of us he and his pack think is the most valuable to the rest of us survivors. i am kind of surprised that no one else even thought of this, and everyone is just accepting his Sawyer/Duke reveal without question (where were you on that one blade ;)). From all accounts, Sawyer is a con-man, so i am a little bit baffled that no one is doubting his reveal.

with that in mind, i am not ready to vote yet, as i need some time to reread everything that has come out since i left for work today. i will be back in a bit.

[saldana]

dola, the only real way to disprove SnDvls story is for someone else to step up and say that they are the duke, which i dont want, because they then become that target for Sun that i was refering to.

[Swaggs]

2. sndvls is the brutal other, assuming there is one, and when we vote for him, he is going to whack whichever one of us he and his pack think is the most valuable to the rest of us survivors. i am kind of surprised that no one else even thought of this, and everyone is just accepting his Sawyer/Duke reveal without question (where were you on that one blade ;)). From all accounts, Sawyer is a con-man, so i am a little bit baffled that no one is doubting his reveal.



I don't think an other would put himself out there like this. A 2-1 trade just isn't a good option for them this early, in my opinion.

You throwing the idea out there, on the other hand, is interesting.

[saldana]

I don't think an other would put himself out there like this. A 2-1 trade just isn't a good option for them this early, in my opinion.

You throwing the idea out there, on the other hand, is interesting.

lets take for one moment the entire story that blade has been spinning to be true...that he cant be lynched at night without taking someone with him. combine that with his normally highly insightful play, and can you think of a better reason why the brutal would try to draw votes to himself? cant kill him at night, cant get him lynched because too many people believe him, and he is one of the best players in the game....sounds like a real good exchange to me. problem is, to believe this, we have to believe sndvls is a bad guy, but we dont want to vote for him, because then we lose another survivor. its the perfect play for the others right now.

[Swaggs]

lets take for one moment the entire story that blade has been spinning to be true...that he cant be lynched at night without taking someone with him. combine that with his normally highly insightful play, and can you think of a better reason why the brutal would try to draw votes to himself? cant kill him at night, cant get him lynched because too many people believe him, and he is one of the best players in the game....sounds like a real good exchange to me. problem is, to believe this, we have to believe sndvls is a bad guy, but we dont want to vote for him, because then we lose another survivor. its the perfect play for the others right now.

To be honest, Blade has been so chaotic, that I am not even listening to him at this point. That is his style and he is entitled to it, but to me, he is just throwing a bunch of stuff out there to see how it plays. He has probably been right on some of it and he is/will be wrong on, probably, more of it.

If Sndvls is not in danger of being of being killed at night because he is an other, he knows who the rest of the others are, so there is really no reason for him to flex his muscles and use his powers this early. Again, a 2-1 is a much more powerful swing later on in the game, when the numbers are fewer.

[Celeval]

What's the brutal wolf role? </n00b>

Edited to fix the < and >

[saldana]

if blade is the assassin that he says he is, all of us are in danger of being killed at night by him, including SnDvls, who would then not be able to brutalize anyone. hence, it is still a good move

[Swaggs]

The brutal role means you take someone else out with you if you die.

It is a 2 for 1 because, while it kills a bad guy, the bad guys also get to immediately kill a good guy and then take out another good guy during the next night turn.

[spleen1015]

Anyone keeping track of the current votes?

[saldana]

The brutal role means you take someone else out with you if you die.

It is a 2 for 1 because, while it kills a bad guy, the bad guys also get to immediately kill a good guy and then take out another good guy during the next night turn.

just a small correction to this...the brutal role gete to take someone out with him if he gets LYNCHED. if he were to get hit by an assassin at night, he doesnt get to use his abilities....hence, why i think sun's play might be a perfect ploy for the brutal wolf.

[KWhit]

Got caught up. Bad, bad, thing that hoops got taken out. I changed my mind, I'm not going to the bunker.

I think spleen might be good after all. hoops vouched for him, so that's good enough for me.
I just want to put out there that it should also clear me, as hoops and spleen have both vouched for me. A bunch of people are clearing spleen but leaving me out of it - why is that?

[KWhit]

I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.

Same here. He has tried way too hard to get us to vote Alan T. No one should push that hard to get someone voted out without some real hard evidence. So far, he hasn't shown any - in fact, he's now backtracking. I don't like it.

[Swaggs]

just a small correction to this...the brutal role gete to take someone out with him if he gets LYNCHED. if he were to get hit by an assassin at night, he doesnt get to use his abilities....hence, why i think sun's play might be a perfect ploy for the brutal wolf.

I think that is speculative. It depends on AE's rules. I have seen that played both ways.

[Swaggs]

I just want to put out there that it should also clear me, as hoops and spleen have both vouched for me. A bunch of people are clearing spleen but leaving me out of it - why is that?

Based on hoops fate, do you really want to be in that group right now? You should keep it on the down low. :)

[KWhit]

Based on hoops fate, do you really want to be in that group right now? You should keep it on the down low. :)
Doh!

Good point.

*Whistles as he slowly backs out of thread*


:D

[Blade6119]

UNVOTE ALANT
VOTE SNDVLS

If you are who you say you are then i hope you make a good decision...dont immediately pick alan, consider desnudo too.

[Blade6119]

if blade is the assassin that he says he is, all of us are in danger of being killed at night by him, including SnDvls, who would then not be able to brutalize anyone. hence, it is still a good move
Your not in danger of dying by my hand right now saldana...very few are...im at a shortlist of about 4-5 people right now, that will mostly be decided by the lynch.

Anyone else feel like we might have a cunning wolf in alan?

[Blade6119]

thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right. ;)
I am now sure...kill ALANT today sndvls...i will take out desnudo tonight. This will end up a huge day for the villagers.

Was waiting to see how something played out, and am beyond happy at the results

[KWhit]

I am now sure...kill ALANT today sndvls...i will take out desnudo tonight. This will end up a huge day for the villagers.

Was waiting to see how something played out, and am beyond happy at the results
Do you care to share any of this?

[Blade6119]

Do you care to share any of this?
Not especially...and since all it takes is sndvls and i to do this i dont think i need to share with you.

[Alan T]

Just got home, and checking in real quick before bed.

UNVOTE ALANT
VOTE SNDVLS

If you are who you say you are then i hope you make a good decision...dont immediately pick alan, consider desnudo too.

I still don't think I fully buy Sndvls here. I really had someone else pegged as the Duke, and I don't know if he is trying to bluff me out here.

I really think he should still pick me here if he is not bluffing. There are too many people here that mistrust me at this point that doing otherwise leaves too many loose ends. I cant really do much else for our side at this point than i already have, so in my death some people hopefully would believe what i had to say about a few people. Anyhows, if I ended up misjudging this badly on him, I probably deserve to die anyways.

[KWhit]

Not especially...and since all it takes is sndvls and i to do this i dont think i need to share with you.
That's helpful. Thanks.

[Blade6119]

Just got home, and checking in real quick before bed.



I still don't think I fully buy Sndvls here. I really had someone else pegged as the Duke, and I don't know if he is trying to bluff me out here.

I really think he should still pick me here if he is not bluffing. There are too many people here that mistrust me at this point that doing otherwise leaves too many loose ends. I cant really do much else for our side at this point than i already have, so in my death some people hopefully would believe what i had to say about a few people. Anyhows, if I ended up misjudging this badly on him, I probably deserve to die anyways.
I too had someone else pegged. So vote to lynch sun...either he will duke it to you, or he will die an other death

[Alan T]

Your not in danger of dying by my hand right now saldana...very few are...im at a shortlist of about 4-5 people right now, that will mostly be decided by the lynch.

Anyone else feel like we might have a cunning wolf in alan?

Im not sure exactly what I would gain by this "Strategy" if I was a cunning wolf. In most games I believe the cunning wolf gets revealed as a wolf when dying, just when viewed by a seer they show up as a normal player.

[Alan T]

I too had someone else pegged. So vote to lynch sun...either he will duke it to you, or he will die an other death


Yeah, thats what I have been trying to say to folks. At this point it seems I pretty much have -no one- on my side, an it would be pretty tough to form any trust other than proving my innocence through my death, or you and penny showing up to be good. The easiest way to clear all three of us right now is my death, and in the process catch either an other in Sndvls, or clearing him as well. Thats 4 cleared villagers for the price of 1.

[Blade6119]

Im not sure exactly what I would gain by this "Strategy" if I was a cunning wolf. In most games I believe the cunning wolf gets revealed as a wolf when dying, just when viewed by a seer they show up as a normal player.
Wrong, most games the cunning wolf comes up a wolf during lynch but a villager to the seer

[Blade6119]

Yeah, thats what I have been trying to say to folks. At this point it seems I pretty much have -no one- on my side, an it would be pretty tough to form any trust other than proving my innocence through my death, or you and penny showing up to be good. The easiest way to clear all three of us right now is my death, and in the process catch either an other in Sndvls, or clearing him as well. Thats 4 cleared villagers for the price of 1.
Might i ask how you say you know penny and i are clear?

[Alan T]

Wrong, most games the cunning wolf comes up a wolf during lynch but a villager to the seer


Isnt that what I just said? :)

[Blade6119]

Isnt that what I just said? :)
Well maybe :rolleyes: ...sorry, i read it wrong.

But if true, you would gain a lot. Have your wolves defend you, then you die a villager and they look clean. People then come after me and sun instead

[Alan T]

Might i ask how you say you know penny and i are clear?


I'll tell my secret possibly tommorrow. Waiting to see what one person does first. :)

[Blade6119]

That's helpful. Thanks.
Hey kwhit, i want to ask you something now that hoops is dead. Do you think it was at all possible that spleen is not who he says he is. I understand the simple villager thing, but is it possible he just got lucky saying he was a simple villager then just ran with it when everything went down. I would ask him the same about you but hes not on. Hoops dying is just interesting in relation to you guys...

[Alan T]

Well maybe :rolleyes: ...sorry, i read it wrong.

But if true, you would gain a lot. Have your wolves defend you, then you die a villager and they look clean. People then come after me and sun instead


I don't know how much clearer I can make it that people shouldn't go after you. Even if sndvls is not bluffing and I just guessed wrong here.

[Blade6119]

I'll tell my secret possibly tommorrow. Waiting to see what one person does first. :)
Just to let you know, unless i find reason not to, you wont make it to tomorrow. Regardles of what happens with sun...

[spleen1015]

If you want to assume im good, then im going to have to ask for you to not go after raiders right now...deal with raiders later and you will be better off

Given all of the recent developments, I don't think I have a choice but to turn away from Raiders for now. I see us getting rid of an other at the end of the day, no matter who it really is.

I want to trust you, so I am going to at this point. I just hope you aren't playing to my inexperience.

I still think Raiders is an other. If he were a good guy, he would see that I am as well. It doesn't add up to me.

[Alan T]

Just to let you know, unless i find reason not to, you wont make it to tomorrow. Regardles of what happens with sun...

I meant tommorrow as in Wednesday. I need to go to bed now, long day tommorrow at work :) I fully expect that either Sndvls will die or I will this game day and then alot will be clearer.

[spleen1015]

Hey kwhit, i want to ask you something now that hoops is dead. Do you think it was at all possible that spleen is not who he says he is. I understand the simple villager thing, but is it possible he just got lucky saying he was a simple villager then just ran with it when everything went down. I would ask him the same about you but hes not on. Hoops dying is just interesting in relation to you guys...

I'm here and ready to answer. If you go back to post 943, I explain what happened there.

I was under suspicion by RA because of the way I voted on Day 1. So, I needed something to prove myself. Rereading my PM, I saw that AE referred to me as a simple survivor. So, I hoped this would be a clue to all of the other survivors, hoping they got the same PM.

When I was doing research, trying to find dirt on you, I saw that KWhit had posted something to the effect of "I'm just a simple survivor checking in." I know right then that I could trust him. I knew he got the same PM as I did. Later on, hoops responded to someone with a really long post and in that post he said almost the same thing, buried in his reply. That is when he became trusted.

pennywise dropped it after hoops, but it was a little too late because the 3 of us were being a little cute with 'simple'.

I felt the word 'simple' was vague enough for no one to pick up on other than those who got the PM. I am skeptical of penny just because he came to the party after we dropped it a bunch.

I'm on your side and I'm pretty confident that you can trust me.

[spleen1015]

I'm here and ready to answer. If you go back to post 943, I explain what happened there.

I was under suspicion by RA because of the way I voted on Day 1. So, I needed something to prove myself. Rereading my PM, I saw that AE referred to me as a simple survivor. So, I hoped this would be a clue to all of the other survivors, hoping they got the same PM.

When I was doing research, trying to find dirt on you, I saw that KWhit had posted something to the effect of "I'm just a simple survivor checking in." I know right then that I could trust him. I knew he got the same PM as I did. Later on, hoops responded to someone with a really long post and in that post he said almost the same thing, buried in his reply. That is when he became trusted.

pennywise dropped it after hoops, but it was a little too late because the 3 of us were being a little cute with 'simple'.

I felt the word 'simple' was vague enough for no one to pick up on other than those who got the PM. I am skeptical of penny just because he came to the party after we dropped it a bunch.

I'm on your side and I'm pretty confident that you can trust me.


I meant to say that I am pretty confident that I can trust you.

[Swaggs]

I hate when I keep refreshing a page without realizing it has gone on to the next one. :)

[KWhit]

Hey kwhit, i want to ask you something now that hoops is dead. Do you think it was at all possible that spleen is not who he says he is. I understand the simple villager thing, but is it possible he just got lucky saying he was a simple villager then just ran with it when everything went down. I would ask him the same about you but hes not on. Hoops dying is just interesting in relation to you guys...
Nope, I think spleen is legit. He was the first one to pick up on my "simple survivor" clue. Soon after I posted that, he came out and said he knew I was a survivor. I have as much faith in him as I did in Hoops.

And I'm not surprised that hoops was killed. He was one of 3 known survivors. It's always a good strategy for the wolves to kill the "proven" villagers. In this case, it's less of a solid strategy because it seems clear that we're role-less and if they waste a kill on one of us they won't be getting someone more important. But, it takes a known quantity off the table, making it more likely that we'll lynch a survivor.

[Blade6119]

I meant to say that I am pretty confident that I can trust you.
You should after tonight, assuming you live through it

[KWhit]

pennywise dropped it after hoops, but it was a little too late because the 3 of us were being a little cute with 'simple'.

I felt the word 'simple' was vague enough for no one to pick up on other than those who got the PM. I am skeptical of penny just because he came to the party after we dropped it a bunch.
But penny used more of the code than (I think) any of us had mentioned up until that point. He included more than just "simple survivor" which makes me believe in him pretty well too.

[kingfc22]

Blade - What makes you so sure that the others won't kill you tonight? If we are to believe that McKerney (Jack) was a bodyguard then what is preventing the others from killing you before you get to whack Desnudo or Alan during the night phase?

[KWhit]

You should after tonight, assuming you live through it
In my eyes you've hitched your wagon to Alan T. If he's proven to be a survivor, you're tops on my suspicion list.

[spleen1015]

Let's work under the assumption that Sun really is a duke and a good guy.

Why do we want to lynch him just to get to Alan T when we can just lynch Alan T? Alan T is on a lot of folks' suspicion list, so why not just go that route?

I don't like the idea of Sun asking to be lynched. It speaks of double cross to me.

I just want to make sure the route we go is the right one.

[spleen1015]

But penny used more of the code than (I think) any of us had mentioned up until that point. He included more than just "simple survivor" which makes me believe in him pretty well too.

You are absolutely correct on that one. I forgot about that. Good call.

[KWhit]

I don't like the idea of Sun asking to be lynched. It speaks of double cross to me.
How could it be a double cross?

[kingfc22]

[QUOTE=spleen1015]I don't like the idea of Sun asking to be lynched. It speaks of double cross to me./QUOTE]

That is the reason I am voting for him today. If he is double crossing us, then we nab an other. If he isn't then he kills Alan and hopefully we get an other or clear 2 villagers clearing some things up.

[Blade6119]

Assuming sndvls does duke it, this is my wolf list as of now:
Alant
Desnudo
Kingfc
Possibly schmidty

King makes perfect sense if you assume hes a wolf. That would mean that the wolves were trying to save king and took the mr. w bandwagon(like having alan, desnudo, and king all on mr. w)....day 2 desnudo goes on the block and takes the lead. Mckerney then leaves for the night and suddenly we have a movement to him that ties it up(with both desnudo and alan on mckerney, who had voted for desnudo before he left)..King went on raiders on day 2 as well, and since i trust raiders this counts as a bad move to me as well.

So basically all 3 have voted for nothing but confirmed good guys, and mostly did it in protection of an other.

It sounds odd , but we may have been this close to lynching an other both days so far...SOMEHOW, a late switch saved both of them from dying...coincidence?

[Blade6119]

Blade - What makes you so sure that the others won't kill you tonight? If we are to believe that McKerney (Jack) was a bodyguard then what is preventing the others from killing you before you get to whack Desnudo or Alan during the night phase?
Im guessing they cant afford the losses that come with such an action. And im hoping if they try, my assasination comes first in night order processing. If im right though, the person coming to kill me is the person id be going to kill...and if im right one of those 2 people who would come kill me is you

[Blade6119]

Let's work under the assumption that Sun really is a duke and a good guy.

Why do we want to lynch him just to get to Alan T when we can just lynch Alan T? Alan T is on a lot of folks' suspicion list, so why not just go that route?

I don't like the idea of Sun asking to be lynched. It speaks of double cross to me.

I just want to make sure the route we go is the right one.
If he is the duke, we lynch him, he swaps the vote to alan...alan dies, sun lives...why just vote alan if we can clear sun in the process. If he is bad, then lynching him will result in the death of an other...its win-win to me

[Blade6119]

In my eyes you've hitched your wagon to Alan T. If he's proven to be a survivor, you're tops on my suspicion list.
Im comfortable with that...barring cunning wolf, i am confident he will die an others death. I think we have 3 wolves, i dont think alan is the cunning wolf, and i think all 3 have special powers(hence why we dont have 4)

[spleen1015]

If he is the duke, we lynch him, he swaps the vote to alan...alan dies, sun lives...why just vote alan if we can clear sun in the process. If he is bad, then lynching him will result in the death of an other...its win-win to me

Is Sun allowed to use his Duke ability again?

[kingfc22]

...and if im right one of those 2 people who would come kill me is you
If only I was that lucky to have the honor two games in a row.http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Blade6119]

Is Sun allowed to use his Duke ability again?
I asked him and he said he didnt want to answer

[Blade6119]

If only I was that lucky to have the honor two games in a row.http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/wink.gif
Ya, surpsingly the same 2....you and alan...unfortunately this time i wont be coming to save you, it will be to kill you. And i dont think you can blind smoke

[spleen1015]

I asked him and he said he didnt want to answer

I see then. I assumed it was a standard rule whether he could or not.

[saldana]

How could it be a double cross?

did you just skip entirely everything i said around 9:30 pm?

[KWhit]

did you just skip entirely everything i said around 9:30 pm?
It's possible.

:D

Re-reading now.....

[saldana]

I see then. I assumed it was a standard rule whether he could or not.
no, the rules are totally up to ardent. the the harry potter game, the duke got to reuse his powers as many times as he could unless he duked a wizard. if he duked a death eater, he kept his power.

[spleen1015]

Let's work under the assumption that Sun is a duke and he is a bad guy.

We have him claiming to be good and Alan T to be bad. Could it be possible that he knows that Alan T has a skill useful to the good side, so it is a good idea for the bad guys to get rid of him?

Why not turn it around and throw this out there to get rid of Alan because he is valuable to the good side. We vote to lynch him and he in turn duke's out Alan T.

With him not willing to reveal whether or not he can duke more than once, then it could be possible for him to duke as all out of the game.

Now, with all of that being said, with Blade having the ability to kill someone with a night act, I assume he would knock off Sun if he turned out to be the bad duke, eh?

[KWhit]

did you just skip entirely everything i said around 9:30 pm?
I refreshed my memory and yes, I did read your posts about that. But I don't buy it. Even if Sndvls is a Brutal Wolf (or whatever the Lost equivilent is), we'd be in good shape if we lynched him. I think it would be worth the 1 for 1 kill (or 1 Other/2 survivor kill if you want to think about it that way) because we'd ACTUALLY KILL A FREAKING OTHER!!!! Something we desperately need to do. I'd take that trade right now.

But I haven't found Alan to be very suspicious yet. Can someone please post the argument for voting for him - or is it just because Blade is so adament about him being an Other? That's fine if that's the reason - as Blade seems to be claiming that he has some inside information, but I'd like ot know why so many people are ready to kill Alan.

[Blade6119]

Let's work under the assumption that Sun is a duke and he is a bad guy.

We have him claiming to be good and Alan T to be bad. Could it be possible that he knows that Alan T has a skill useful to the good side, so it is a good idea for the bad guys to get rid of him?

Why not turn it around and throw this out there to get rid of Alan because he is valuable to the good side. We vote to lynch him and he in turn duke's out Alan T.

With him not willing to reveal whether or not he can duke more than once, then it could be possible for him to duke as all out of the game.

Now, with all of that being said, with Blade having the ability to kill someone with a night act, I assume he would knock off Sun if he turned out to be the bad duke, eh?
I have never seen a bad duke...in one game it was possible for him to be converted and keep his duke power, but i dont think it ever happened. If the wovles had a repeatable duke power i would cry...too unbalanced. by repeatable i implied what saldana said...he keeps it if he keeps lynching bad guys..loses it if he doesnt

[KWhit]

Let's work under the assumption that Sun is a duke and he is a bad guy.
I don't think I've ever seen a game where the Duke was a bad guy.

[spleen1015]

I guess I have misread somewhere then and have gotten confused with the brutal werewolf.

Does the brutal ww die and get to take someone else with him?

Yeah, I thik that is it.

Okay, so nevermind, I guess. :D

I'm still learning.

[Blade6119]

as Blade seems to be claiming that he has some inside information,
For the 18th time, and all from you, i DO NOT have inside information about alan...im not sure why you cant grasp this point...as for an argument, i think i need to requote this since everyone overlooked it i guess:
Assuming sndvls does duke it, this is my wolf list as of now:
Alant
Desnudo
Kingfc
Possibly schmidty

King makes perfect sense if you assume hes a wolf. That would mean that the wolves were trying to save king and took the mr. w bandwagon(like having alan, desnudo, and king all on mr. w)....day 2 desnudo goes on the block and takes the lead. Mckerney then leaves for the night and suddenly we have a movement to him that ties it up(with both desnudo and alan on mckerney, who had voted for desnudo before he left)..King went on raiders on day 2 as well, and since i trust raiders this counts as a bad move to me as well.

So basically all 3 have voted for nothing but confirmed good guys, and mostly did it in protection of an other.

It sounds odd , but we may have been this close to lynching an other both days so far...SOMEHOW, a late switch saved both of them from dying...coincidence?
Alan has voted for nothing but good villagers, has done so despite me telling people not too vote for those 2, and then claiming he knows im clean...As well, the sways off of king and desnudo should be telling when they were both on the block.

[KWhit]

I guess I have misread somewhere then and have gotten confused with the brutal werewolf.

Does the brutal ww die and get to take someone else with him?

Yeah, I thik that is it.
That is correct.

[spleen1015]

For the 18th time, and all from you, i DO NOT have inside information about alan...im not sure why you cant grasp this point...as for an argument, i think i need to requote this since everyone overlooked it i guess:

Alan has voted for nothing but good villagers, has done so despite me telling people not too vote for those 2, and then claiming he knows im clean...As well, the sways off of king and desnudo should be telling when they were both on the block.

I was looking at the voting pattern earlier and I saw some of the same things.

I have believed king to be a bad guy for a while. He put that in doubt when he said he supported me, but he hasn't done very much to show any sort of support.

Question, has the tie breaker ever been a bad guy?

[Blade6119]

I was looking at the voting pattern earlier and I saw some of the same things.

I have believed king to be a bad guy for a while. He put that in doubt when he said he supported me, but he hasn't done very much to show any sort of support.

Question, has the tie breaker ever been a bad guy?
Not that im aware of for that either.

Last game alan supported me and earned my trust basically by agreeing with everything i said. He was a wolf...dont make the same mistake i made last game, and now alan wants me to make again by saying he knows im clean.

It is good to see that other people share my views(sndvls with desnudo, you with king...) I post this hoping people dont think im just railroading and wielding power...i really am working for the villagers here

[spleen1015]

Out for the night.

Today has been fun, guys.

[KWhit]

For the 18th time, and all from you, i DO NOT have inside information about alan...im not sure why you cant grasp this point.
You keep acting like you know for a FACT that Alan is an Other. Here are some posts that illustrate why one would think you know more than you're letting on.


dola, despite the comment spleen just made, let me make this clear in case i somehow die tonight(well, today...buts its night).

Kill Alan...no "they killed him to frame alan"...if i die, kill alan...is this in anyway unlcear?

And when I asked "why" you came back with:

I really dont care to discuss before the night actions are processed...but know if i get killed what needs to happen.
And:

I am now sure...kill ALANT today sndvls...i will take out desnudo tonight. This will end up a huge day for the villagers.

Was waiting to see how something played out, and am beyond happy at the results

So again, I ask why you have such certainty around Alan being an Other and ask if you would care to share the reason why you're so happy at the results. You say:

Not especially...and since all it takes is sndvls and i to do this i dont think i need to share with you.

WTF? It sounds like you are trying very hard to lead us down a path based on very weak evidence and little more than a hunch. The only time I would ever be that adament about trying to sway a vote is WHEN I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT SOMEONE IS EVIL.

I don't get why you feel so strongly about him. He may be an Other. But if he is, it's clearly more a case of luck than anything.

[Blade6119]

You keep acting like you know for a FACT that Alan is an Other. Here are some posts that illustrate why one would think you know more than you're letting on.




And when I asked "why" you came back with:


And:



So again, I ask why you have such certainty around Alan being an Other and ask if you would care to share the reason why you're so happy at the results. You say:



WTF? It sounds like you are trying very hard to lead us down a path based on very weak evidence and little more than a hunch. The only time I would ever be that adament about trying to sway a vote is WHEN I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT SOMEONE IS EVIL.

I don't get why you feel so strongly about him. He may be an Other. But if he is, it's clearly more a case of luck than anything.
I have presented the evidence(all of the voting...only three people voted for both mr. w and mckerney...alan, desnudo(self-preservation he claimed), and desmond(the tie-breaker)...) All signs point to alan, not even including his play so far.

If you have better evidence against anyone else, let me know...but so far ive seen you guys lynch two people i knew were good for no reason...i figure i have to be drastic to stop you guys from getting worked

[KWhit]

If you have better evidence against anyone else, let me know...but so far ive seen you guys lynch two people i knew were good for no reason...i figure i have to be drastic to stop you guys from getting worked
That's funny considering you tried to assassinate the Doctor on night 1. And the two people you voted for are unconfirmed and could very well be survivors.

[Blade6119]

That's funny considering you tried to assassinate the Doctor on night 1. And the two people you voted for are unconfirmed and could very well be survivors.
Exactly, i did try to kill him. And in failure i realized his role...Want to hear something funny kwhit, i stated out loud what i thought his role was...so who started the vote on mckerney, who i had implied to be the bodyguard?

Alan....big suprise

[Schmidty]

Possibly schmidty

Not to be defensive, but why am I on the list? I'd like to understand your reasoning.

By the way, you've been a pleasure to play with this game, and that wierds me out. ;)

[KWhit]

Exactly, i did try to kill him. And in failure i realized his role...Want to hear something funny kwhit, i stated out loud what i thought his role was...so who started the vote on mckerney, who i had implied to be the bodyguard?

Alan....big suprise

I don't have a clear read on Alan. He may very well be an Other.

I just want to make sure that people aren't swayed by your posting in bold and being very confident in your belief that he's an other when everyone else has the same info you do.

I think that voting for Sndvls is the best choice as of right now, but there is a lot of time between now and the lynch and things may change - especially who we all think Sndvls should switch with if he's the Duke.

[KWhit]

Good night all - it's too late for me!

[Schmidty]

By the way, I'll be on for maybe another 10 minutes, although I will park myself in this thread over night.

[Blade6119]

Not to be defensive, but why am I on the list? I'd like to understand your reasoning.

By the way, you've been a pleasure to play with this game, and that wierds me out. ;)
Merely becuase i have no idea if there is a 4th wolf, and if there is i have no idea who it is...since i have no idea where your at, you randomly got picked.

And thank you, ive tried to be less of an ashole this time..i think everyone has this game, which is why its going so well so far

[path12]

any other reason other than following blade? this will help in future analysis, thanks.

At that point, the only reason was to get a vote out there in case there was a chance of resolving tonight. Since it looks like tomorrow I am wide open to changing it depending on the arguments.

[path12]

I'll tell my secret possibly tommorrow. Waiting to see what one person does first. :)

I want to hear what you have to say. And since the vote isn't tonight,




UNVOTE ALAN T

[Raiders Army]

I just want to put out there that it should also clear me, as hoops and spleen have both vouched for me. A bunch of people are clearing spleen but leaving me out of it - why is that?
Oh, sorry about that. Didn't mean to forget you. KWhit is high on my list of trustables as well.

[Raiders Army]

I'll tell my secret possibly tommorrow. Waiting to see what one person does first. :)
If you're waiting for me...

VOTE SNDVLS

I'm voting for him because your logic is pretty sound way back on page 30 (I think) except for the fact that you forgot about the option of him being a brutal wolf, which saldana brought up. I also believe that this is too early in the game for the wolves to sacrifice one of their own (brutal) for a villager.

[Blade6119]

Sndvls, kill alan...i fully expect to be attacked tonight while i go after desnudo or king, so on the chance i do die everybody knows exactly where to go. I wont say which one im going to attack, as i dont want them to be ready for it. But im confident i will kill an other

[Blade6119]

dola, like an hour later but dola...i still dont like this kwhit/spleen group...and i trust kwhit...so if we have 4th wolf i honestly think spleen could be it. While i like his play, it is that exactly which worries me. He came out and said he too suspected king after i did and has actively played the role alan did last game. If alan and spleen are both wolves it would make sense why he is. Im not saying he is, but if we have 4 or im wrong about any of these 3 then i think he is a possibility. Now he is in there with like 5-6 people in my mind, but since most people trust him i wanted to make it clear im not sure i do. I wish he had posted the clue the villagers were picking up on, but he insisted hoops do it instead. Then kwhit was the one saying penny said more then just simple, and spleen again follow suit agreeing. Just talking

[Blade6119]

interesting...spleen was here when i posted that, was on for about 15-20 minutes id say..and didnt respond...most interesting.

[spleen1015]

interesting...spleen was here when i posted that, was on for about 15-20 minutes id say..and didnt respond...most interesting.

I didn't respond because I didn't see the comment before I left.

All I can say is that you are wrong. I wanted hoops to reveal 'simple survivor' because KWhit wanted him to. I was all ready to do it. I even went ahead and posted what I prepared for the reveal.

I am trusting you by backing off of RA. I think that should give you a level of trust in me besides everything else.

[Alan T]

I want to hear what you have to say. And since the vote isn't tonight,




UNVOTE ALAN T


Don't vote waiting to hear what I have to say. In fact if you think i am guilty, vote Sndvls like I said previously. If I am a wolf, then he is likely what he says he is and will duke me. If he is lying, then well voting him will get rid of him once and for all.

The hesitance on my part to say alot more, is despite my reasoning I have given, alot of people are still holding back votes. I have fear that yet once again the Wolves will try to manipulate a last minute run on someone completely different which will accomplish getting Sndvls to escape the noose, as well as leave me around for people to waste another day thinking I am still guilty.

Watching how this goes though is helping me cocntinue to build more of a trust list though I hope. Right now i have this to say, if Sundvls is bluffing like I fully believe he is Celeval becomes very truste for me. Not 100%, but pretty close to the level of Penny and Blade. If Sndvls is telling the truth, and I die here, I think three of your wolves might be Desnudo, Celeval and Raiders.

Blade, i know you keep saying if I trust you to not go after Raiders, but you have to give me more than just a "hunch" here. Right now your hunch is that I am bad, so Im not sure how much I can rely on it.

[Raiders Army]

I didn't respond because I didn't see the comment before I left.

All I can say is that you are wrong. I wanted hoops to reveal 'simple survivor' because KWhit wanted him to. I was all ready to do it. I even went ahead and posted what I prepared for the reveal.

I am trusting you by backing off of RA. I think that should give you a level of trust in me besides everything else.
The circle of trust is beginning to tighten. I would say that if Blade trusts me, and I trust him and spleen, then you guys should trust each other.

[Alan T]

Exactly, i did try to kill him. And in failure i realized his role...Want to hear something funny kwhit, i stated out loud what i thought his role was...so who started the vote on mckerney, who i had implied to be the bodyguard?

Alan....big suprise


I've actually started the vote on the person I chose all three days so far. and it looks like all three days that person will be lynched. I obviously have no control over what everyone else does, but it makes you wonder why are they jumping on what I do each day. Its like they are trying to play you against me based off of last game. That tells me the wolves likely are people who were around last game and knew my strategy from last game.

[Alan T]

I refreshed my memory and yes, I did read your posts about that. But I don't buy it. Even if Sndvls is a Brutal Wolf (or whatever the Lost equivilent is), we'd be in good shape if we lynched him. I think it would be worth the 1 for 1 kill (or 1 Other/2 survivor kill if you want to think about it that way) because we'd ACTUALLY KILL A FREAKING OTHER!!!! Something we desperately need to do. I'd take that trade right now.

But I haven't found Alan to be very suspicious yet. Can someone please post the argument for voting for him - or is it just because Blade is so adament about him being an Other? That's fine if that's the reason - as Blade seems to be claiming that he has some inside information, but I'd like ot know why so many people are ready to kill Alan.


I agree, if Sundvls is the brutal wolf, its still a 1 for 1 trade that likely has to happen at some point. I am guessing Blade is our only night action kill that we have, so after tonight we wouldnt have it to take out a brutal wolf anyhows. So at some point we have to do this one for one swap. Worst case is we lynch Sundvls and he is the brutal wolf, he likely will take out either Blade or myself I think. if he takes out Blade, it almost confirms my thoughts about Desnudo and we just go after him the next day. If he kills me, then Blade can still find out about Desnudo that night for us.

I honestly don't think he is the brutal wolf though, I think he's just been caught in a lie and right now something is going on behind the scenes to try to save him from a lynch without people getting suspicious.

[KWhit]

dola, like an hour later but dola...i still dont like this kwhit/spleen group...and i trust kwhit...so if we have 4th wolf i honestly think spleen could be it. While i like his play, it is that exactly which worries me. He came out and said he too suspected king after i did and has actively played the role alan did last game. If alan and spleen are both wolves it would make sense why he is. Im not saying he is, but if we have 4 or im wrong about any of these 3 then i think he is a possibility. Now he is in there with like 5-6 people in my mind, but since most people trust him i wanted to make it clear im not sure i do. I wish he had posted the clue the villagers were picking up on, but he insisted hoops do it instead. Then kwhit was the one saying penny said more then just simple, and spleen again follow suit agreeing. Just talking
Spleen is a-ok. He jumped on my code first out of everyone. He is a survivor. I'm 100% confident in him (unless there is an Other converter - which I kind of doubt since that doesn't really fit in with the show). I am the one that asked Hoops to post the details of the code because at the time I was 100% sure of spleen but only 90% sure on hoops. Spleen wanted to post the details himself, but I asked hoops to do it instead so I could clear him 100%.

Spleen is a survivor.

[KWhit]

The Blade / Raiders trust duo worries me. I'm still not sure about Blade and I don't trust Raiders at all. Blade has said numerous times that he trusts RA as much as anybody, but why? He has said he doesn't have any inside information about him, but there is nothing else that would prove RA to be trustworthy.

Beware of letting him into your circle of trust. He should still be classified as an unknown at this point.

[SnDvls]

But I haven't found Alan to be very suspicious yet. Can someone please post the argument for voting for him - or is it just because Blade is so adament about him being an Other? That's fine if that's the reason - as Blade seems to be claiming that he has some inside information, but I'd like ot know why so many people are ready to kill Alan.


I tell you why I suspect Alan

1) he voted for and got lynched in doing so 2 survivors
2) after I pulled off my vote for him on day 2 because I believed him he comes back with a vote for me. Not only is it for me, but it's mins. after the night results are posted by AE. If that wasn't preplanned I don't know what was.

just stuck me as odd that someone who believes him would get his first vote the next day. I must be on to something to get it that quick of a vote.

[Alan T]

I tell you why I suspect Alan

1) he voted for and got lynched in doing so 2 survivors
2) after I pulled off my vote for him on day 2 because I believed him he comes back with a vote for me. Not only is it for me, but it's mins. after the night results are posted by AE. If that wasn't preplanned I don't know what was.

just stuck me as odd that someone who believes him would get his first vote the next day. I must be on to something to get it that quick of a vote.

Actually I had planned to vote for you unless something changed my mind of thinking for the reasons I stated yesterday. I did not know preplanning was a bad thing, I have a list right now of people who I likely think we should go after that I have given. I felt then and still feel very strongly that you were lying then, and now you are bluffing.

Not sure what you were on to in order to get such a quick vote, at the time I voted for you as far as I knew, you were still on my side or "believed me". The only people who did not believe me at that point I think was Swaggs, Hoops (who is now dead) and Blade.

So either you are still bluffing, or I did a very poor job of reading what you posted up till then in combination with what someone else posted to that point. Its hard for me to believe that two of the same role exists, and right now I believe the other person is the duke more than you, Sorry thats all there is to it for me. I guess I will find out soon enough though.

[Blade6119]

Blade, i know you keep saying if I trust you to not go after Raiders, but you have to give me more than just a "hunch" here. Right now your hunch is that I am bad, so Im not sure how much I can rely on it.
Thats exactly the problem. I think your a wolf, and therefore i dont want to help you by giving you insight

[Blade6119]

The Blade / Raiders trust duo worries me. I'm still not sure about Blade and I don't trust Raiders at all. Blade has said numerous times that he trusts RA as much as anybody, but why? He has said he doesn't have any inside information about him, but there is nothing else that would prove RA to be trustworthy.

Beware of letting him into your circle of trust. He should still be classified as an unknown at this point.
FYI, your good buddy hoops, one of your trusteds before he died, also stated he trusted raiders...and myself...coincidence he died? If we were bad, why kill the one person who was sticking up for us? Come on kwhit, connect the dots here

[Blade6119]

FYI, your good buddy hoops, one of your trusteds before he died, also stated he trusted hoops...and myself...coincidence he died? If we were bad, why kill the one person who was sticking up for us? Come on kwhit, connect the dots here
dola, and who did hoops suspect most? Alan....

[KWhit]

FYI, your good buddy hoops, one of your trusteds before he died, also stated he trusted hoops...and myself...coincidence he died? If we were bad, why kill the one person who was sticking up for us? Come on kwhit, connect the dots here
I assume you mean he said he trusted RA and you. I trusted hoops 100%. I knew he was a survivor. But he could have been wrong - about you or RA.

[Blade6119]

FYI, your good buddy hoops, one of your trusteds before he died, also stated he trusted raiders...and myself...coincidence he died? If we were bad, why kill the one person who was sticking up for us? Come on kwhit, connect the dots here
Edited to say he trusted raiders...it read before hoops trusted hoops...makes sense, but not my point

[spleen1015]

dola, and who did hoops suspect most? Alan....

Care to give me your response to my response to you suspecting me?

If you have one, other...:D

[Blade6119]

I assume you mean he said he trusted RA and you. I trusted hoops 100%. I knew he was a survivor. But he could have been wrong - about you or RA.
i ask you though, if your a wolf and someone says they trust you...do you kill the person trusting you or the person accusing you of being a wolf(not as much as i was, but he was def. the #2...and he didnt have a fight back role)...just saying, i think it makes perfect sense. Do you see me killing hoops if im bad?

[Blade6119]

Care to give me your response to my response to you suspecting me?

If you have one, other...:D

Honestly, i think this says everything for me...that , and that alone, will take you off my list

The circle of trust is beginning to tighten. I would say that if Blade trusts me, and I trust him and spleen, then you guys should trust each other.

[spleen1015]

Honestly, i think this says everything for me...that , and that alone, will take you off my list

If I trust you, then I guess I should trust RA along with you, eh?

That stinks!

[KWhit]

i ask you though, if your a wolf and someone says they trust you...do you kill the person trusting you or the person accusing you of being a wolf(not as much as i was, but he was def. the #2...and he didnt have a fight back role)...just saying, i think it makes perfect sense. Do you see me killing hoops if im bad?
I don't know. Perhaps.

You have often commented on the fact that wolves go after the "vets" early in the game. Maybe it was a plan to get rid of hoops and then use his death to try to clear yourselves by saying exactly what your saying. And I've mentioned before that killing hoops was a good Other strategy because he was a cleared survivor. We weren't going to lynch him, so the Others took him out.

So it's possible that he was killed even though he seemed to support you guys. I son't know if it's likely or not, but it's certainly not enough by itself to clear you or especially Raiders.

[Blade6119]

If I trust you, then I guess I should trust RA along with you, eh?

That stinks!
Eh, them the breaks ;) .

Anyone think im missing someone from my circle of trust?(even if kwhit doesnt trust me):
Mr. W(dead)
Mckerney(dead)
Hoops(dead)
Raiders
Spleen
Kwhit
Pennywise

Thats a 5 person circle if you include me. Sun should be dead or cleared by the lynch today, so we either get a wolf or another cleared villager. And if you dont trust me yet my kill tonight should earn your trust.

[Alan T]

i ask you though, if your a wolf and someone says they trust you...do you kill the person trusting you or the person accusing you of being a wolf(not as much as i was, but he was def. the #2...and he didnt have a fight back role)...just saying, i think it makes perfect sense. Do you see me killing hoops if im bad?


Well Ive been telling people I trust you, and you are trying to kill me lol :)

[Blade6119]

I don't know. Perhaps.

You have often commented on the fact that wolves go after the "vets" early in the game. Maybe it was a plan to get rid of hoops and then use his death to try to clear yourselves by saying exactly what your saying. And I've mentioned before that killing hoops was a good Other strategy because he was a cleared survivor. We weren't going to lynch him, so the Others took him out.

So it's possible that he was killed even though he seemed to support you guys. I son't know if it's likely or not, but it's certainly not enough by itself to clear you or especially Raiders.
Let me make this clear...you can believe me or not, but if i was an other hoops would have died night one. None of that gramat crap(no offense gramat)...hoops is too dangerous in my mind to make it past day one if im an other. Hell, i almost killed him as a villager just becuase i was afraid he was a wolf. If i was a wolf, gramat would not have been my target. You can believe me or not, but its the truth.

[Blade6119]

Well Ive been telling people I trust you, and you are trying to kill me lol :)
lol, you have to understand alan...last game you said you trusted me and you were a wolf...so you see why i dont put too much weight into it this time, right? :confused:

[Blade6119]

Eh, them the breaks ;) .

Anyone think im missing someone from my circle of trust?(even if kwhit doesnt trust me):
Mr. W(dead)
Mckerney(dead)
Hoops(dead)
Raiders
Spleen
Kwhit
Pennywise

Thats a 5 person circle if you include me. Sun should be dead or cleared by the lynch today, so we either get a wolf or another cleared villager. And if you dont trust me yet my kill tonight should earn your trust.
As a side note, desmond prob. fits in that list, but he said he didnt know he had a tie-breaker and didnt claim simple villager...so i dont know what hes trying to say, but the tie-breaker alone earns my trust for now

[Alan T]

lol, you have to understand alan...last game you said you trusted me and you were a wolf...so you see why i dont put too much weight into it this time, right? :confused:


No its cool. I figure tonight will make people trust me a little more (or so I hope).

Last game was alot of fun though, but Im still paying for it :)

[Blade6119]

You have often commented on the fact that wolves go after the "vets" early in the game.
Veteran wolves go after vets early in games...less experienced players tend to go random...not saying your wrong, but thats what i usually say

[Blade6119]

No its cool. I figure tonight will make people trust me a little more (or so I hope).

Last game was alot of fun though, but Im still paying for it :)
So you expect to make it to tonight, and more so through tonight?

[Alan T]

So you expect to make it to tonight, and more so through tonight?


I can't control what you do. I stated before that I think there is a Duke Role, and i think that Sndvls is NOT it. I think that I know who it is, but I don't want to say because I do not want that person night killed. I fully expect to live through the lynch today. If you still want to come after me and assasinate me tonight, well I can't really stop you (unless the bodyguard is still out there).

[Alan T]

dola, I have a pretty good idea what you are able to do and not able to do, and what things you said that wern't quite accurate. I fully believe Blade that you CAN kill me if you want.

[KWhit]

Eh, them the breaks ;) .

Anyone think im missing someone from my circle of trust?(even if kwhit doesnt trust me).
At this point I'm leaning toward trusting you. My comments have mostly been about my lack of trust for RA. There is no solid reason to include him in my circle of trust and I haven't seen any solid reason why he is in yours. It's fine that you tend to believe him, but by putting him in the same group as me, penny, and spleen, you are basically giving him "cleared" status - something that he definitely does not deserve. Me, spleen, and penny (and hoops, but he's dead) had inside info clear us. If you believe one of us, you believe all of us because we're all saying that it's not circumstancial evidence - it's solid.

There is no solid evidence that RA is a survivor. None. That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying I don't believe you. I'm saying that your hunch is being given way too much weight at this point and want to make sure that the rest of the survivors doesn't include RA in the "cleared" group because he doesn't yet belong there, IMO.

[saldana]

ok, if sun turns out to be the brutal wolf, i will "told you so-ing" all the rest of you, but in lieu of having a better option, as it will basically clear 2 of us


vote sndvls

[Blade6119]

CAN EVERYONE VOTE FOR SNDVLS...WE NEED HIM TO USE HIS POWER OR DIE A WOLVES DEATH...THE WAY I SEE IT, ITS EITHER OR...SO VOTE HIM

AND SNDVLS, IVE MADE IT CLEAR ITS IMPERITIVE YOU USE YOUR POWER TODAY...EVEN IF THE LYNCH IS TO ALAN, USE YOUR ROLE TO VALIDATE THE LYNCH. IF YOU DO NOT USE YOUR POWER, YOU VERY WELL MAY NOT BE AROUND TOMORROW TO USE IT

[KWhit]

ok, if sun turns out to be the brutal wolf, i will "told you so-ing" all the rest of you, but in lieu of having a better option, as it will basically clear 2 of us
If he is the brutal wolf, I'll take it! At least we'd get one - and I think a 1 for 1 trade is a good result for tonight.

[Blade6119]

Me, spleen, and penny (and hoops, but he's dead) had inside info clear us. If you believe one of us, you believe all of us because we're all saying that it's not circumstancial evidence - it's solid.
And im saying you should trust raiders...you can take what you will from this comment, but i refuse to say any more then that

[KWhit]

AND SNDVLS, IVE MADE IT CLEAR ITS IMPERITIVE YOU USE YOUR POWER TODAY...EVEN IF THE LYNCH IS TO ALAN, USE YOUR ROLE TO VALIDATE THE LYNCH. IF YOU DO NOT USE YOUR POWER, YOU VERY WELL MAY NOT BE AROUND TOMORROW TO USE IT
If the vote goes Alan's way, why would Sndvls waste his power to keep the vote on Alan?????

[SnDvls]

as it stands Alan will be my choice.

[SnDvls]

ok, if sun turns out to be the brutal wolf, i will "told you so-ing" all the rest of you, but in lieu of having a better option, as it will basically clear 2 of us

and when I'm proved to be Sawyer what will you do?

[Alan T]

If the vote goes Alan's way, why would Sndvls waste his power to keep the vote on Alan?????

To prove he isnt bluffing. As the last few days have gone, we have seen the wolves manipulate the votes somehow. If they try another late swing to kill me off today, and he doesn't use his power it leaves us with nothing or very little once again tommorrow, other than him as the number 1 target. Then if he really wasnt bluffing it means that we have lost two days.

[SnDvls]

CAN EVERYONE VOTE FOR SNDVLS...WE NEED HIM TO USE HIS POWER OR DIE A WOLVES DEATH...THE WAY I SEE IT, ITS EITHER OR...SO VOTE HIM

AND SNDVLS, IVE MADE IT CLEAR ITS IMPERITIVE YOU USE YOUR POWER TODAY...EVEN IF THE LYNCH IS TO ALAN, USE YOUR ROLE TO VALIDATE THE LYNCH. IF YOU DO NOT USE YOUR POWER, YOU VERY WELL MAY NOT BE AROUND TOMORROW TO USE IT


I understand this. If I don't the others know I'm a force to be wary of so they must take me out in the night. If they pass on me then I'm lynched for not using it.

I AM USING MY ROLE TONIGHT PERIOD

it can only help at this point on day 3 with no others lynched/killed. It will clear me and start to expose the others and have them scrambling like roaches.

[SnDvls]

if people start moving off me to alan then it's very suspicious.

[Alan T]

if people start moving off me to alan then it's very suspicious.

I agree, Ive stated many times, I think there is only one likely vote for today. I am already suspicious of people who still have not voted, I don't know what they are planning or up to.

[SnDvls]

Alan you got the vote count? I think it's me 7 you 1 if correct now.

[pennywisesb]

besides just to keep it on Alan or I any other reason for voting me over Alan?
this will help in future analysis, thanks.

Its really nothing against you, I just like the fact that by doing this, either a). you'll be cleared as the Duke and can use your power to take out a suspected other or b). you'll be lynched for bluffing your power

Its really the safe play. Just trying to get caught up with the thread, I have 3 more pages to go.

[saldana]

and when I'm proved to be Sawyer what will you do?
as long as alan is an other, clap when you kill him, then urinate on his dead body as vengance for killing me last game. :D

[SnDvls]

Its really nothing against you, I just like the fact that by doing this, either a). you'll be cleared as the Duke and can use your power to take out a suspected other or b). you'll be lynched for bluffing your power

Its really the safe play. Just trying to get caught up with the thread, I have 3 more pages to go.


thank you, I think that should help in the future when I'm still around.

[Alan T]

Alan you got the vote count? I think it's me 7 you 1 if correct now.

I went out last night so didnt keep it. I'll total them up for today after I finish my current conference call. (I'm being productive at work, can't you tell!)

[path12]

VOTE SNDVLS

There's really no better option at this point.

[spleen1015]

I think I have this right...

1455 - Blades votes Alan T (1)
1458 - Alan T votes SnDvls (1)
1461 - SnDvls votes Alan T (2)
1469 - Desnudo votes SnDvls (2)
1539 - pennywisesb votes SnDvls (3)
1553 - path12 votes Alan T (3)
1555 - kingfc22 votes SnDvls (4)
1567 - Celeval votes SnDvls (5)
1586 - Blade UNvotes Alan T (2)
1586 - Blade votes SnDvls (6)
1650 - path12 UNvotes Alan T (1)
1652 - Raiders Army votes SnDvls (7)
1686 - saldana votes SnDvls (8)
1702 - path12 votes SnDvls (9)

[KWhit]

VOTE SNDVLS

[Swaggs]

Just catching up.

[Swaggs]

Alright. Earlier I said I had made up my mind on who I was voting for, and that was Alan, but since SnDvls will kill him as the duke, I will go with that, as it will reveal two people, rather than just one.

Vote SnDvls

[saldana]

this might be the most boring day of werewolf ever. not even blade is posting.

[saldana]

dola...i think we need to stir some conversation up...


YOU GUYS ALL SUCK, YOU ARE THE WORST WEREWOLF PLAYERS EVER. I AM THE GOD-INCARNATE OF WEREWOLF, BOW TO ME!!!













anyone that took any of that seriously needs to please go have several stiff drinks and a sarcasm(spelled it right) pill

[spleen1015]

Yeah, this sucks...

[Celeval]

anyone that took any of that seriously needs to please go have several stiff drinks and a sarcasm(spelled it right) pill
If I didn't take it seriously, can I still have the drinks?

[Alan T]

Yeah, this sucks...

Sorry, I didnt expect it to actually get to this point. I had figured by now someone would be doing something to try to get Sndvls off the hook. I figured that would be good for some drama today. There are still a few people who havent voted, but a couple of the ones I suspected to be possible ringleaders already followed in line.

I'm starting to believe I got fooled by something Celeval said before.

[spleen1015]

I haven't voted yet, but from the looks of it, it may not really matter if I do or not.

[Celeval]

Uh-oh. What'd I do? :)

[Alan T]

I haven't voted yet, but from the looks of it, it may not really matter if I do or not.


Well its 10-1, and all but one of the people I thought to possibly make things interesting already voted. But I would still say it could matter if people suddenly try to create a reason to switch their vote later.

[SnDvls]

I haven't voted yet, but from the looks of it, it may not really matter if I do or not.

it matters please vote.

[Alan T]

Uh-oh. What'd I do? :)


Well I am hesitant to say. If I am right about Sndvls bluffing and I explain my move, it would make you a likely wolf target. If he is telling the truth however it could point the villagers at you as a future lynch target, so not sure yet which path to take.

[spleen1015]

it matters please vote.

I will, eventually.

[Celeval]

Well I am hesitant to say. If I am right about Sndvls bluffing and I explain my move, it would make you a likely wolf target. If he is telling the truth however it could point the villagers at you as a future lynch target, so not sure yet which path to take.
Fair enough. I still think Sndvls is bluffing, tho. :)

[Blade6119]

Does everyone understand why i voted for the early lynch?

ARDENT, IF YOUR HERE I THINK EVERYONE AGREES YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND LYNCH SUN

Sun just needs to send in his duke role, and everyone needs to agree to end this thing early....no need for like 10 more hours of this

[saldana]

alan, give me a good reason, and i can easily bail out of my vote, i still smell a setup

[saldana]

unless alan has something profound to contribute,i am fine with ending early...this is boring...i actually had time to be on as much as i wanted today, and no one else is saying anything.

[Alan T]

alan, give me a good reason, and i can easily bail out of my vote, i still smell a setup


Right now the only reason I can think of not voting for Sndvls is if you're a wolf. So thats probably not a path I would take :) Ive already said my piece, I think he is bluffing, and what Celeval just said reconfirms my thoughts for a third time. So either Celeval is setting me up, or Sndvls is bluffing. We'll find out soon enough.

[Blade6119]

Well i could rehash the ideas ive said for like 2 days now...but sndvls play today, saying he is the duke, either means he is a duke or a wolf...does anyone else see a combination there that i missed? Its possible i guess he is a wolf who wont die at lynch just on this day, but that seems odd...either way i think we will learn more from my night kill then the lynch today

[Blade6119]

Right now the only reason I can think of not voting for Sndvls is if you're a wolf. So thats probably not a path I would take :) Ive already said my piece, I think he is bluffing, and what Celeval just said reconfirms my thoughts for a third time. So either Celeval is setting me up, or Sndvls is bluffing. We'll find out soon enough.
I am really starting to consider alan for the cunning wolf...he hints at a special human role but wants to wait until tomorrow, maybe two days away to tell us what it is...if sun is the duke, alan knows sun isnt bluffing...so for him to want sun to duke means hes the cunning or a villager i would think. Brutal could apply, but i wouldnt think he would be so blunt as a brutal

[spleen1015]

VOTE SnDvls

I'll go ahead and do this now before AE shows up and ends the day early.

[spleen1015]

I am really starting to consider alan for the cunning wolf...he hints at a special human role but wants to wait until tomorrow, maybe two days away to tell us what it is...if sun is the duke, alan knows sun isnt bluffing...so for him to want sun to duke means hes the cunning or a villager i would think. Brutal could apply, but i wouldnt think he would be so blunt as a brutal

Explain the cunning wolf to me, please.

[spleen1015]

Because this matters?

1455 - Blades votes Alan T (1)
1458 - Alan T votes SnDvls (1)
1461 - SnDvls votes Alan T (2)
1469 - Desnudo votes SnDvls (2)
1539 - pennywisesb votes SnDvls (3)
1553 - path12 votes Alan T (3)
1555 - kingfc22 votes SnDvls (4)
1567 - Celeval votes SnDvls (5)
1586 - Blade UNvotes Alan T (2)
1586 - Blade votes SnDvls (6)
1650 - path12 UNvotes Alan T (1)
1652 - Raiders Army votes SnDvls (7)
1686 - saldana votes SnDvls (8)
1702 - path12 votes SnDvls (9)
1704 - KWhit votes SnDvls (10)
1706 - Swaggs votes SnDvls (11)
1725 - spleen1015 votes SnDvls (12)

[Alan T]

I am really starting to consider alan for the cunning wolf...he hints at a special human role but wants to wait until tomorrow, maybe two days away to tell us what it is...if sun is the duke, alan knows sun isnt bluffing...so for him to want sun to duke means hes the cunning or a villager i would think. Brutal could apply, but i wouldnt think he would be so blunt as a brutal

When I said yesterday that "I would tell you tommorrow" , I didnt mean till the next game day, I just meant till today (wednesday). But because of how things played out, I think my going any further will endanger another Villager, so for now the best move I think is to just go from the lynch and try to get information from that. Based on either Sndvls innocence or guilt vs my innocence and guilt.

Ask yourselves though, what has Sndvls actually come out with other than echoing thoughts that Blade and Hoops already were saying. The reason I attacked him today (when he was on my side, "trusting" me) was because I think I caught him in a lie. I think exposing that lie right now would endanger another villager that could be useful to us.

The clues are out there, for those who want to go back and read. I feel pretty confident right now in my course of action.

[Bearcat729]

Vote SnDvls

We'll see if Blade is right.

[Alan T]

Explain the cunning wolf to me, please.


A cunning wolf is usually one who a seer would view to be a "good" villager, but when dies is exposed as a wolf. Blade seems to be hinting in this case he thinks a cunning wolf would be exposed as a villager no matter how they die , which is something that I have not seen before, but it could be possible. I'm not a cunning wolf though (even though you wouldnt or shouldnt believe me if I was).

[Blade6119]

Explain the cunning wolf to me, please.
Basically upon lynch he looks like a villager...seer sees him as a wolf, but when lynched he will come up a villager despite actually being a wolf. I dont think they show up like that during night kills, but lynch=villager...killing a cunning usually throws the villagers off the wolves tracks

[Blade6119]

A cunning wolf is usually one who a seer would view to be a "good" villager, but when dies is exposed as a wolf. Blade seems to be hinting in this case he thinks a cunning wolf would be exposed as a villager no matter how they die , which is something that I have not seen before, but it could be possible. I'm not a cunning wolf though (even though you wouldnt or shouldnt believe me if I was).
Ive only seen it that way in one game, but its possible

[saldana]

Explain the cunning wolf to me, please.

depending on exactly how ardent set it up, if at all, the cunning wolf appears as a normal villager when viewed by the seer and/or when he is lynched, so what blade is saying is that we may kill alan, and not find out if he is an other or not.

[SnDvls]

Right now the only reason I can think of not voting for Sndvls is if you're a wolf. So thats probably not a path I would take :) Ive already said my piece, I think he is bluffing, and what Celeval just said reconfirms my thoughts for a third time. So either Celeval is setting me up, or Sndvls is bluffing. We'll find out soon enough.


Why would you think I was bluffing? I had no heat on me except from you and Desnudo who I called both of you out on so I'd expect you two to vote me.

[Alan T]

Basically upon lynch he looks like a villager...seer sees him as a wolf, but when lynched he will come up a villager despite actually being a wolf. I dont think they show up like that during night kills, but lynch=villager...killing a cunning usually throws the villagers off the wolves tracks


lol, you're example of cunning and mine are completely opposite. Well Blade has been in far more games than I have been probably so his definition is likely more often true. Im only speaking on what I have seen in 2 games I have seen a cunning wolf.

[Blade6119]

When I said yesterday that "I would tell you tommorrow" , I didnt mean till the next game day, I just meant till today (wednesday). But because of how things played out, I think my going any further will endanger another Villager, so for now the best move I think is to just go from the lynch and try to get information from that. Based on either Sndvls innocence or guilt vs my innocence and guilt.

Ask yourselves though, what has Sndvls actually come out with other than echoing thoughts that Blade and Hoops already were saying. The reason I attacked him today (when he was on my side, "trusting" me) was because I think I caught him in a lie. I think exposing that lie right now would endanger another villager that could be useful to us.

The clues are out there, for those who want to go back and read. I feel pretty confident right now in my course of action.
So your saying lynch sun, regardless of whether or not your bad really...very interesting...

[saldana]

When I said yesterday that "I would tell you tommorrow" , I didnt mean till the next game day, I just meant till today (wednesday). But because of how things played out, I think my going any further will endanger another Villager, so for now the best move I think is to just go from the lynch and try to get information from that. Based on either Sndvls innocence or guilt vs my innocence and guilt.

Ask yourselves though, what has Sndvls actually come out with other than echoing thoughts that Blade and Hoops already were saying. The reason I attacked him today (when he was on my side, "trusting" me) was because I think I caught him in a lie. I think exposing that lie right now would endanger another villager that could be useful to us.

The clues are out there, for those who want to go back and read. I feel pretty confident right now in my course of action.


alan, this didnt help you at all, in fact if you have any info that might lead us to the others after your death, you had better get it out there quick unless you are somehow sure you are not gonna die when ardent shows up.

that said, i am out, gotta go to work, i'll try to check in around 6:30

[Alan T]

Why would you think I was bluffing? I had no heat on me except from you and Desnudo who I called both of you out on so I'd expect you two to vote me.


Actually you had alot of heat from people for your switch off, include hoops who started to link you to me saying we were a wolf pair. That obviously got me suspicious to look further into what you were up to, and thats when I think I found the descrepency that I did in what appears right now to me as either you cant be what you say you are, or someone else is lying. (not flat out lying, but dropping hints in a way that makes me think you are)

[Alan T]

So your saying lynch sun, regardless of whether or not your bad really...very interesting...


Yep, I put together a huge long post yesterday trying to explain to everyone why lynching Sun was the -only- good choice today if people feel that either he is a wolf or I am. By lynching him you should find the truth about both of us.

Since then some people mentioned him possibly being a brutal wolf, but I stated even then, I would take a 1 for 1 trade right now to get a wolf and try to bust this open some.

Like I said at the start of Day 3, Either he is a wolf and bluffing here big time, or I did a horrible job of reading the play of other people and picked the wrong person to call out.

Basically my day 3 move was going to decide between these two people on which I believed, and go hardcore for them. I think since the other person has been a bit less suspicious to me, and more subtle I believed them more than Sndvls. I honestly think he is bluffing, and if he isnt, well i deserve to die for making everyone waste a day.

[SnDvls]

Actually you had alot of heat from people for your switch off, include hoops who started to link you to me saying we were a wolf pair. That obviously got me suspicious to look further into what you were up to, and thats when I think I found the descrepency that I did in what appears right now to me as either you cant be what you say you are, or someone else is lying. (not flat out lying, but dropping hints in a way that makes me think you are)


quotes and post #'s please

[SnDvls]

Yep, I put together a huge long post yesterday trying to explain to everyone why lynching Sun was the -only- good choice today if people feel that either he is a wolf or I am. By lynching him you should find the truth about both of us.

Since then some people mentioned him possibly being a brutal wolf, but I stated even then, I would take a 1 for 1 trade right now to get a wolf and try to bust this open some.

Like I said at the start of Day 3, Either he is a wolf and bluffing here big time, or I did a horrible job of reading the play of other people and picked the wrong person to call out.

Basically my day 3 move was going to decide between these two people on which I believed, and go hardcore for them. I think since the other person has been a bit less suspicious to me, and more subtle I believed them more than Sndvls. I honestly think he is bluffing, and if he isnt, well i deserve to die for making everyone waste a day.


what is there for me to bluff? I said lynch me or you, but you are going down. it's now like 12 to 1 on me. you are still going down and I'll be alive.

[Alan T]

what is there for me to bluff? I said lynch me or you, but you are going down. it's now like 12 to 1 on me. you are still going down and I'll be alive.


I'll believe it when I see it I suppose. I think that is the only way I am going to believe you here.

[Celeval]

Well, what's worst case here? I think worst case is that Alan and I are both reading something very wrong - either from SnDvls, or otherwise. In which case, SnDvls clears himself and bumps off Alan... a plus ahead of where we'd be if we just voted Alan, since Sunny D is cleared.

At that point, from my POV, I'm pretty confident at having identified 5 villagers, and we're still at a loss on the wolves; with 5 dead. Not the best situation, but still tenable.

[Blade6119]

Well, what's worst case here? I think worst case is that Alan and I are both reading something very wrong - either from SnDvls, or otherwise. In which case, SnDvls clears himself and bumps off Alan... a plus ahead of where we'd be if we just voted Alan, since Sunny D is cleared.

At that point, from my POV, I'm pretty confident at having identified 5 villagers, and we're still at a loss on the wolves; with 5 dead. Not the best situation, but still tenable.
Dont forget, 2 kills tonight...if we are at nothing but villagers after tonight then were in real trouble...im hoping somewhere in the 4 clearings(sun/alan, 2 night kils) we have at least 1 wolf...if we dont then ive played horribly so far

[Alan T]

Dont forget, 2 kills tonight...if we are at nothing but villagers after tonight then were in real trouble...im hoping somewhere in the 4 clearings(sun/alan, 2 night kils) we have at least 1 wolf...if we dont then ive played horribly so far


I get to find out in about 9 hours if I've played horribly so far or not I guess :)

[spleen1015]

Dont forget, 2 kills tonight...if we are at nothing but villagers after tonight then were in real trouble...im hoping somewhere in the 4 clearings(sun/alan, 2 night kils) we have at least 1 wolf...if we dont then ive played horribly so far

Well, that wouldn't be good!

[Blade6119]

Well, that wouldn't be good!
not for the villagers at least...it would be grand for the others

[PackerFanatic]

Not like it matters much, but...

VOTE SnDvls

[Desmond]

Some of the things I saw when I had to make my pick of who to kill and some of what i've read here don't add up, but im willing to go along with you guys, I just hope you guys are right.

VOTE SnDvls

[Swaggs]

Am I the only one who thinks it sets a bad precedent to move deadlines up?

Even if things looked locked now, things can always change.