Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Mr. Wednesday]

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

Wolves do all sorts of things.

Sometimes they go after someone who's getting a little too close for comfort.

Sometimes they go after someone who's historically a good player that they're afraid of.

Sometimes they go after someone in a one-on-one battle in hopes of kicking off a groundswell against the other in the argument.

In this game, they may be trying to pick off the STARS chief.

[Alan T]

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

I'm glad Alan has reanalyzed his position, because I'm pretty confident that if I were the chief I would pile on to someone to hide my vote. A vote for a lynched player is simply cover at that point. It is a missed opportunity to "out" someone, but I think it is more important for the chief to not paint a target on his back and stay in the game.

I'll be in and out of contact today to take a closer look at the likely suspects, but right now, I don't feel like I have more than an inkling of which way to go.

I always reanalyze my positions. I'm not perfect and don't know everything obviously.. however I haven't changed my opinon that I think Fouts or St.Cronin (or possibly both) are bad. I think mathematically its my best play for the day.

[LoneStarGirl]

Alan you must have the easiest job in the world because you are consitently online during the day.

[Alan T]

I don't think we can take anything out of KWhit's vote. He thought Brian was slightly suspicious because of a small thing he said, then he jumped back into our planned 2 man race. Seems like a perfectly normal I-don't-know-jack villager play D1.

I agree, I don't think kwhit's vote itself is very meaningful to us.

What I think is interesting to think about is if last night the wolfs thought it was meaningful though. If both cronin and BrianD were on their team would Kwhit moving from one to the other be enough to scare them into thinking he was the chief?

Would they have risked outing BrianD and/or Cronin in the process of eliminating what seemed to them like a likely police chief?

I currently am leaning to probably not, and they probably killed kwhit due to him being in a group of likely chiefs who was also an experienced and quality player, unrelated to BrianD alltogether.

[Alan T]

Alan you must have the easiest job in the world because you are consitently online during the day.

I am a network engineer for a 15,000 person company worldwide. I handle the integration of companies that we aquire as well as other various day to day network type implementation project planning.

Probably 40% of my time is spent in meetings or conference calls where I can just sit on here while I listen to the call.

Right now we are in quarter end which implements a freeze time this weekend where the entire IT organization is not allowed to make any changes this weekend that could risk us having problems with numbers for the quarter. That means no changes this weekend, and very little planning this week for this weekend.

So this week is my light week :)

[Chubby]

Just a few notes:
While I should be home before the deadline tonight, it will still take a few mins for me to record all the votes to make sure I got everything correct.

Also, the night 2 deadline will be 7am as I have to work early in the morning for a change :( If anyone has a problem with that let me know, conditional orders will certainly be allowed tonight if that helps.

[Tyrith]

I think today we have to start working on these psuedo-alliances we see. The Lathum/Fouts connection bothers me. I'm going to wait for Fouts, like hoops is, but I'm concerned. Cronin doesn't seem like a bad guy to me. If he's a zombie he just went way risky way early, which doesn't seem like him. I think it's more likely he was just trying to stir up day one discussion and was acting stupid by contradicting himself -- self contradictions aren't a sign of wolfish but of just making mistakes, which I would argue a bad guy would be on higher alert for.

Alan...I don't know. He hasn't done TOO suspicious at this point -- the bullet kill yesterday was a perfectly reasonable kill, and being suspicious of cronin at this point is quite fair; I don't think he'd be an awful lynch. The amount of crap he's putting out there about the chief does bother me, though.

Overall I think we need to stop focusing on the chief so much. We're not going to be able to magically divine who the chief is today, or what his intent is, NOR DO WE WANT TO. All we're doing is giving the bad guys more information that they can actively use at this point. I'm all for us coming up with ideas on how the chief would be working, but please keep them to yourselves for a few days, so that when our bumbling around does get the chief killed we can actually use his (or her) death for some productive use.

Now that I've mentioned that I am slightly more suspicious of Alan. But right now the Fouts/Lathum thing bothers me the most.

[hoopsguy]

Going with the idea of zombies trying to pick off the STARS chief - KWhit could have been a person who identified a zombie with his vote. They worry that he may be the Police Chief and take their shot that night.

That theory still holds because he switched his vote to Cronin - who could potentially be in the same faction, but definitely remains unidentified. If he had switched instead to Bullet they would not have had to worry about him last night.

[Tyrith]

I agree, I don't think kwhit's vote itself is very meaningful to us.

What I think is interesting to think about is if last night the wolfs thought it was meaningful though. If both cronin and BrianD were on their team would Kwhit moving from one to the other be enough to scare them into thinking he was the chief?

Would they have risked outing BrianD and/or Cronin in the process of eliminating what seemed to them like a likely police chief?

I currently am leaning to probably not, and they probably killed kwhit due to him being in a group of likely chiefs who was also an experienced and quality player, unrelated to BrianD alltogether.

You'd have to assume bother cronin and brian are zombies, because umbrella can't do night kills....it's theoretically possible but damn that's unlikely, and I think they would figure we would go on to bigger and better things other than chasing down Brian based on a weak day 1 vote that got rescinded. In other words, if KWhit were alive would we care about the vote? My most likely scenario is that they took a night kill on someone they didn't expect to be guarded.

[Tyrith]

My main point on KWhit is this: if he WAS right about Brian wouldn't it make more sense to leave him alive and let the vote die in the mess that is Day One? I don't get the sense that KWhit was going to stalk Brian down, but he was just going with the small byte of information available. Although this is on the assumption that the wolves would think it that far through, but it seems really weak to me.

[Alan T]

Going with the idea of zombies trying to pick off the STARS chief - KWhit could have been a person who identified a zombie with his vote. They worry that he may be the Police Chief and take their shot that night.

That theory still holds because he switched his vote to Cronin - who could potentially be in the same faction, but definitely remains unidentified. If he had switched instead to Bullet they would not have had to worry about him last night.

Thats what my thinking was about BrianD when I was asked. I think right now its a reach though, and very easy to setup BrianD in killing Kwhit last night.

[Alan T]

My main point on KWhit is this: if he WAS right about Brian wouldn't it make more sense to leave him alive and let the vote die in the mess that is Day One? I don't get the sense that KWhit was going to stalk Brian down, but he was just going with the small byte of information available. Although this is on the assumption that the wolves would think it that far through, but it seems really weak to me.

I agree. thats why I said I was leaning towards it not meaning much. But like I said someone asked me my thoughts about BrianD, so I answered.


Interesting though that it was Cronin asking me about BrianD.. because if the theory that brianD was bad is true, Cronin too would have been bad in that scenerio.

[BrianD]

Alan, you asked for thoughts on what other people were thinking, so I'll give you mine. Right now I am leaning toward st.cronin. I had the same thought as you that the chief would not have voted for Bullet, so st.cronin or Fouts probably got the chief's vote. I don't really think NTN is the chief, so that leaves st.cronin.

The only reason I hesitate about this vote is that it is possible that everyone on the block yesterday was good and the chief didn't want to out himself/herself and voted for a STARS member.

[Alan T]

Alan, you asked for thoughts on what other people were thinking, so I'll give you mine. Right now I am leaning toward st.cronin. I had the same thought as you that the chief would not have voted for Bullet, so st.cronin or Fouts probably got the chief's vote. I don't really think NTN is the chief, so that leaves st.cronin.

The only reason I hesitate about this vote is that it is possible that everyone on the block yesterday was good and the chief didn't want to out himself/herself and voted for a STARS member.

I also didnt really think ntndeacon was the chief which is why I voted Cronin earlier. Im not against switching to fouts though, and I heavily considered it when lathum quickly plopped a vote down on Cronin with me after blasting me and my ideas.

I still am tempted to switching to fouts, but I kind of want to see what people do today, and I partially wonder if we have a fouts vs cronin run off, is it umbrella vs zombies? If so, what type of actions will we see from people trying to save their own if its close.

[path12]

I think they would figure we would go on to bigger and better things other than chasing down Brian based on a weak day 1 vote that got rescinded. In other words, if KWhit were alive would we care about the vote? My most likely scenario is that they took a night kill on someone they didn't expect to be guarded.

I agree with Tyrith on this. It doesn't make sense to call more attention to Brian, I think that was pretty clearly a typical day 1 first vote. I could see more connection from thinking he might be the chief based on bullet being good, or from some connection to cronin. But it also seems just as likely that with multiple night action roles that they tried to find someone who was unlikely to be guarded.

[Tyrith]

I would personally much rather vote for Fouts than cronin right now. I just don't see cronin being bad and him playing in a way that get himself incriminated so quickly...although we'll probably have to kill him eventually so we can look at the voting records.

[Alan T]

I would personally much rather vote for Fouts than cronin right now. I just don't see cronin being bad and him playing in a way that get himself incriminated so quickly...although we'll probably have to kill him eventually so we can look at the voting records.

If this is how you feel, then vote for Fouts. Its easy to say thats what you would rather do, but most people forget what is said. They don't typically forget votes as easily.

[Tyrith]

This goes back to me not wanting to put in the first vote. I'm definately not sure Fouts is a bad guy. What if he comes up good? People will use it as an excuse to kill _me_ for putting in the first vote, even though I just get to play more and want to actually do something. No, right now I'm going to sit because I have no assurances people are going to be reasonable with the voting records.

[BrianD]

Fouts seems pretty much like an unknown to me at this point. I don't remember getting any strong vibes from him yesterday and he did end up with just the one early vote. I guess I don't feel strongly enough about him yet to condemn him or to stand with him.

[BrianD]

This goes back to me not wanting to put in the first vote. I'm definately not sure Fouts is a bad guy. What if he comes up good? People will use it as an excuse to kill _me_ for putting in the first vote, even though I just get to play more and want to actually do something. No, right now I'm going to sit because I have no assurances people are going to be reasonable with the voting records.

In this game, if people want to kill you, they will find a reason. :)

[Tyrith]

In this game, if people want to kill you, they will find a reason. :)

Very true, but I'm gonna make them work for it!

[Alan T]

Very true, but I'm gonna make them work for it!

If you want any tips on how to get people to vote for you, let me know. I can help you out :)

[st.cronin]

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Your answer is in your question. Today he voted for me, therefore he is not the police chief. I'm going to go back and look at who some of the early votes for bullet were - I think we'll find some bad guys there.

[Tyrith]

Gone till around 3 EST.

[hoopsguy]

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

[Alan T]

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

Lathum not being the police chief doesn't mean Cronin is a good guy.

[st.cronin]

(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

Based on this, as well as his vote for me today, I am going to advocate lynching Alan T today.

If I end up lynched, let us note that Alan T was vote #1 on 2 different Stars players.


unvote Lathum
vote AlanT

Until we get some better information, from a seer or a dead Police Chief, I suggest we just go down this list - lynch AT today, hoopsguy tomorrow, etc.

[st.cronin]

hoops I answered your question in post #523

[saldana]

I don't see a lot of reasons to be an active poster but a timid voter, Tyrith.

That said, my vote isn't going out until someone posts information from last night, Fouts shows up, or Cronin answers my question from this morning on why he is now sure that Lathum is not the Police Chief.

hoops,i would assume cronin is drawing that belief from the fact that lathum voted for him yesterday...if lathum where the CP, he wouldnt have been the 3rd vote on Cronin (this logic only works from the perspective of cronin as a STARS member)

as far as the use of the logic of "the police chief would never have voted for bullet yesterday"....that is unbelievably flawed.....it was only last freaking game that not only did lathum vote for a fellow cowboy, he handed him over to the town and tied the freaking noose himself. i am rather surprised that Alan is ignoring that fact considering that he was the GM and watched it happen from the front row :confused:

[st.cronin]

hoops,i would assume cronin is drawing that belief from the fact that lathum voted for him yesterday...if lathum where the CP, he wouldnt have been the 3rd vote on Cronin (this logic only works from the perspective of cronin as a STARS member)

as far as the use of the logic of "the police chief would never have voted for bullet yesterday"....that is unbelievably flawed.....it was only last freaking game that not only did lathum vote for a fellow cowboy, he handed him over to the town and tied the freaking noose himself. i am rather surprised that Alan is ignoring that fact considering that he was the GM and watched it happen from the front row :confused:

Lathum's vote yesterday did not convince me of anything. Otherwise, I completely agree with you.

[Alan T]

Lathum's vote yesterday did not convince me of anything. Otherwise, I completely agree with you.

He isnt talking about lathum's vote from yesterday. He is saying that he doesn't understand how I can say that the Police chief would not be voting for Stars to give us an accurate trail to look at upon his death when just last game Lathum voted his own team.

I personally don't see it as the same scenerio, since the police chief's benefit to his team primarily comes upon his death, whereas Lathum's move in that game was for deception, but you aren't the only one who is bringing this up today.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

[Alan T]

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.


Thats because it will deflect heat from his boy Fouts. :)

[st.cronin]

Cronin, the "lynch everyone in line on Bullet" is obviously a comfortable strategy for you since you are 10th in the list. As the person who is 2nd I'm less inclined to support this.

I would argue that the people who were involved with the surge of votes on Bullet when it was in the 5-5 range would make at least as much sense than the early voters on this one.

If you are in fact a member of STARS then the same logic you apply to Alan - voted 1st for two different STARS members - would apply equally to Lathum. I would be more inclined to go in this direction personally, although you don't have to twist my arm too hard to go after Alan.

Lathum has already set the table for you and Alan, Cronin. He said that he wants to gun for Alan next if you show up innocent.

It would actually not be surprising at all to me to learn that Lathum and Alan were zombies. Remember Lathum crying wolf at Alan earlier? And then voting for me? hmmmm

[Alan T]

It would actually not be surprising at all to me to learn that Lathum and Alan were zombies. Remember Lathum crying wolf at Alan earlier? And then voting for me? hmmmm

I wouldnt be suprised if you were right about half of that.



See the fun thing about this game and what I have done is it feels like now I'm getting attacked by both Umbrella and the zombies :) And truth be told, it might not be a stretch to think Zombies + Umbrella = same number of players now as Stars. I think right now though the Stars still have 1 or 2 players on the others combined.

[path12]

So it looks like we held off the early showdown until day 2 -- that's progress!

It seems fairly obvious that Alan, cronin, hoops and Lathum can't all be on the same side (I'm not even looking at the Fouts angle yet either). Problem is as always who is who. Or which is which. Or whatever. Or the simple fact that it strikes me that a zombie wouldn't want to call attention to themselves this early, and that's really where I'd like to focus with my vote.

I do agree with hoops that the most likely bad guys are found on the votes for bullet after the 5-5 tie. So I need to start there, right after I go back through Alan's call out posts from yesterday, which is right after I finish this next project.

Sigh. WW makes my head hurt.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Black... and blue...
And who knows which is which
And who is who

:)

[Abe Sargent]

I'll roll with the st cronin or Fouts logic for now.

Vote st. cronin

In the meantime, I have a Pet Shop Boys concert tonight, so after 5 or so, I'll be out for the evening.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Path, those votes do not mean jack if Cronin is STARS. If we really want to learn if there was value in the lynch yesterday we have to go after Cronin. I would expect that we are going to come back to this again at some point if we do not decide to do it today.

[st.cronin]

I do agree with hoops that the most likely bad guys are found on the votes for bullet after the 5-5 tie.

This is only true if you assume I'm bad. Which I'm not. If you assume bullet and I are both Stars, which we are, then the bad guys had no incentive to vote either way.

[st.cronin]

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

[Alan T]

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

[Alan T]

Let me say this loud and clear:

The one person we know for sure is NOT the police chief is Alan T. Lynching anybody else carries a double risk that not only is that person stars, but he is the police chief. The police chief cannot reveal, and it would be a disaster to lynch him on day 2.

The funny thing is I was second guessing myself if I wanted to stay on you or switch to Fouts because of where Lathum put his vote, but then the way you worded this trying to sow seeds of doubts into people's minds that you may be the police chief when you clearly are not sealed the deal for me. I'll likely keep my vote on you.

[Alan T]

And I will take this a step further, if you somehow do push this to be a you vs me lynch today, I would rather take the death then the chief somehow trying to save me.

Since I dont have any special importance this game, my death likely will mean you are next Cronin (probably followed by Fouts and Lathum)

[st.cronin]

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

[st.cronin]

unvote AlanT
vote st.cronin

This will be the last time I provide any analysis for a looooooong time. All it does is get my lynched.

[path12]

Black... and blue...
And who knows which is which
And who is who

:)

That reminds me -- I'm planning on running a short game at some point based on Dark Side of the Moon. It's totally ripped off from another site, but it was a pretty good scenario.

[Alan T]

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

Hopefully this will be a good learning experience for me :)

[path12]

This is only true if you assume I'm bad. Which I'm not. If you assume bullet and I are both Stars, which we are, then the bad guys had no incentive to vote either way.


Fair point by you and hoops, if I had been taking my time when I posted I might have realized that.

The next off the top of my head question then becomes: Cronin, doesn't that mean that until it is made clear that you are good doesn't this cloud any theories anybody puts forward? I'd really prefer not to vote for you because I'm leaning that you're good -- but if this question is going to need to be proven at some point why not settle it now?

[Abe Sargent]

I give up. Lynch me. None of you know how to play this game.

Its like the reverse Schmidty strategy!

-Anxiety

[Alan T]

Its like the reverse Schmidty strategy!

-Anxiety

Well, its more a desperation move. If he throws a fit , then people will second guess themselves and wonder "Gee maybe he is really just a frustrated villager" and vote elsewhere.

Or they will allow it to affect their judgement on whom to vote for, and instead of looking at all the choices and making a logical deduction they will say well I don't want to be a fool or idiot, so Im not going to do that!

I don't mind being an idiot, because I already plan on invoking the schmidty gambit on day 5 :)

I forsee one of two things happening here:

1) Enough people doubt it to the point they look elsewhere to make it a race and at which time he will jump back in and move his vote somewhere to save himself.

2) Enough votes will stack up against him where he and his team mates will feel its a forgone conclusion and decide to get their votes in too to try to build trust for voting for a bad guy.

I personally was hoping today there would be somewhat of a race between people and not just an everyone pile on one person day. In my mind the most ideal scenerio is we have fouts v cronin where its umbrella vs zombies and we can learn alot by other outside party's maneuvering.

[hoopsguy]

Funny stuff, Anxiety.

Cronin, lets talk this through if you are STARS. I'm going to come at it from my perspective on the game so there will be assumptions in here that I am STARS. If you choose to ignore these, that is fine.

1.) Lathum comes out and votes for me on Day 1. Clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
2.) You come out shortly thereafter, saying that an early vote = bad guy or Chief, then vote early for me. You are clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
3.) You become the 2nd choice candidate yesterday in a runoff with a hero (Bullet)
4.) You come out today and say that the strategy should be to look for the people who voted early for Bullet, although that makes zero sense if it was STARS vs STARS as you assert
5.) You now say that Lathum is not the Chief because he voted for you early - the EXACT argument I made yesterday when he voted for me


If you are STARS, then it would make sense to look at the people who advocated the inclusion of both you and Bullet yesterday, not just the people who pushed for Bullet.

So, what am I missing with this analysis that should help me believe you are STARS and that we should be starting to look at new candidates rather than considering voting records from yesterday?

[BrianD]

I personally was hoping today there would be somewhat of a race between people and not just an everyone pile on one person day. In my mind the most ideal scenerio is we have fouts v cronin where its umbrella vs zombies and we can learn alot by other outside party's maneuvering.

You could always change your vote to Fouts to push the race idea a bit. I would do it for you, but I already talked about voting for st.cronin and since people were trying to link me with him...

Vote st.cronin

[Alan T]

You could always change your vote to Fouts to push the race idea a bit. I would do it for you, but I already talked about voting for st.cronin and since people were trying to link me with him...

Vote st.cronin

I thought about it, but two reasons I won't.

1) I have accumulated my share of critics whom probably are a collection of zombies, umbrellas and misguided Stars who would most likely use it as some excuse that I'm trying to weasel out of my vote in case it goes bad, or whatever.

2) St. Cronin's play trying to make people have doubts about voting for him just in case he might be the police chief when he isn't removed any doubt that I had in my mind of my vote for him in the first place

[Tyrith]

I vote we ban cronin from WW if he's going to be so unsporting about this. It's not like everyone was advocating lynching you for the sake of lynching you do, dude. Grow up.

[Tyrith]

Honestly, I don't think cronin is a bad guy, I think he's a good guy that made a massive fuck-up yesterday and is unacceptably frustrated because he can't dig himself out of the hole. We can't just narrow beam on him like this, it's not gonna get us anywhere. I'm still advocating lynching him at some point because we're gonna need to look at voting records later, but if we do it now and he comes up good we're resetting the game information wise, just down four good guys.

[Alan T]

I vote we ban cronin from WW if he's going to be so unsporting about this. It's not like everyone was advocating lynching you for the sake of lynching you do, dude. Grow up.

Eh, he's probably either just upset that this day/game hasn't quite like he envisioned it or he's using this as a strategy to try to draw attention to other people (We have seen the self vote used before successfully to avoid being lynched).

Either way he's a good player, contributes a good bit in WW games that he runs and in games he plays in. Just this game I think we had the upper hand on him is all.

[hoopsguy]

Definite over-reaction, Tyrith. He has a right to be frustrated by the last couple of games. But if he does elect to take his ball and go home (vote self, not participate in conversation) then people have a right to factor that into future games.

Cronin, if you really are STARS lets try to work through this. I don't want to go down three men with the lynch today. If you aren't STARS, well keep doing what you are doing :)

[Tyrith]

Definite over-reaction, Tyrith. He has a right to be frustrated by the last couple of games. But if he does elect to take his ball and go home (vote self, not participate in conversation) then people have a right to factor that into future games.

Cronin, if you really are STARS lets try to work through this. I don't want to go down three men with the lynch today. If you aren't STARS, well keep doing what you are doing :)

Honestly, I'm sick of self voting in these games. If you take the ball and go home even though there are still people that are trying to help you out that just shows you don't care about anyone else in the game but yourself. So feel free to quit, just don't come back for a while because I don't want to deal with the relapse case.

[BrianD]

I am in no way advocating the chief say anything, but it must be frustrating for him/her at this point. He/She knows if st.cronin is STARS or now, but really can't (and shouldn't) say anything.

[Tyrith]

I am in no way advocating the chief say anything, but it must be frustrating for him/her at this point. He/She knows if st.cronin is STARS or now, but really can't (and shouldn't) say anything.

Chief couldn't say anything anyway, it'd constitute a role reveal and the chief would probably burst into flame or something.

I think we've put way too much of a focus on the chief in this early going. We really can't use the chief for anything for at least a couple of more games, and like I said earlier, any speculation we put out there is just giving the bad guys more stuff to analyze so they can eat his brains before we're going to get much out of him. Think of him as a seer except that he actually has to be dead before we can use him -- you wouldn't go out talking about who you think the seer might be, would you?

[Lathum]

can someone please explain to me how fouts and I became linked? I don't understand how I was trying to "save" a guy who had no votes and no heat on him?

[Tyrith]

can someone please explain to me how fouts and I became linked? I don't understand how I was trying to "save" a guy who had no votes and no heat on him?

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

[spleen1015]

My availability for the evening is in question, so I need to vote. I will definitely be unavailable from 7:30pm until after deadline. So, I'll just do this.

VOTE Alan T

I voted for Alan because I think he theory is totally bunk at this point in the game. He talks about being disappointed in all of the smart players in the game because they haven't come out with this. Well, I know he is a smart guy, so I don't see how he can have so much faith in something so flawed. He gets my vote because he is strong in his convictions with his theory and that doesn't make any sense to me.

[Lathum]

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

[Tyrith]

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

To be honest? I was mostly following Alan's analysis. I think we need to kill someone out of all this weird speculation crap just to see where we stand, but I don't think we're gonna get much out of killing cronin because it's gonna be a total dogpile. So at this point I'm starting to go back to Alan, as much as I don't want to.

[Mr. Wednesday]

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

[Tyrith]

The best way to describe what I'm thinking right now is that I'm not thinking as much as I should be. Sorry guys, I'm just being kind of fuzzy and stupid.

[Alan T]

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

Based on your actions this morning. I come out leaning towards voting fouts and explain why, you jump all over me for my thoughts, but then when I finally decide to go with cronin for the day you suddenly jump on the vote with me and leave the discussion with the comment that you'll go along with me for the cronin vote, but then if cronin is good, we need to go after me next (and ignore fouts).

Those actions just implanted some connection between you two in my head.

[Alan T]

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

I already stated that I am not the police chief. Im not quite sure what you are referring to here.

[BrianD]

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

Are you suggesting an alternative?

[Alan T]

To be honest? I was mostly following Alan's analysis. I think we need to kill someone out of all this weird speculation crap just to see where we stand, but I don't think we're gonna get much out of killing cronin because it's gonna be a total dogpile. So at this point I'm starting to go back to Alan, as much as I don't want to.

Like I said before, if you feel that way then vote for me. I already stated that it wont be a huge loss to my team (Whatever you think my team is) for me to die today.

What my death will accomplish likely is for people to turn right around and go after cronin tommorrow and then possibly fouts the following day. It won't clear anything here.

But I fully encourage people to make this a voting race so its not an everyone jump in on the bad guy and make votes meaningless. We can then see if I get lynched who exactly it was that doomed the STARS player that had nothing to gain from coming out with this theory and everything to lose (drawing attention, getting possibly lynched) by this.

So if you truly want to vote for me, go right ahead. Im not going to get frustrated, I will ask you for your reasons and try to poke holes in them and such.

[Tyrith]

Sigh. And now that I go back and read it I do have to acknowledge that Lathum's rage died down when cronin became the target.

I'm not voting for cronin. I suspect he's gonna be lynched, there's a chance he comes up bad, but so be it. I don't think we gain anything by lynching Alan today either, when he's going to keep drawing votes for a while and we can use him for a vote record monkey.

So that leads me back to Fouts. And while I don't like Alan's pushing, there might be something there. We need to make a race out of this to see if someone goes screwy, and I do kind of want to keep Alan in the game. If the race is gonna happen it probably needs to start now.

VOTE FOUTS

[SnDvls]

Honestly, I'm sick of self voting in these games. If you take the ball and go home even though there are still people that are trying to help you out that just shows you don't care about anyone else in the game but yourself. So feel free to quit, just don't come back for a while because I don't want to deal with the relapse case.

In all fairness I did this a few games back because I was also frustrated. I actually didn't get killed that day...I was suprised too. I then took a game off and got back in. sometimes it's needed out of sheer frustration sometimes. I finally was night killed though I think

[Tyrith]

In all fairness I did this a few games back because I was also frustrated. I actually didn't get killed that day...I was suprised too. I then took a game off and got back in. sometimes it's needed out of sheer frustration sometimes. I finally was night killed though I think

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

[SnDvls]

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

it's not alway a give up case though. I actually have only self voted once and like I said it was due to complete frustration. That could be why it was done, it also could be a rouse to fool us which I've seen used and work in the past too. If you dump the vote and survive you will be questioned about it later on as well so the safest vote is on yourself in the case of frustration. I guess the other side is if he does die and is bad it gives no one any analysis as well. I think dropping out because of frustration is total bush league though, and no I wouldn't say self voting falls in that category in all cases.

[BrianD]

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

It might just be my paranoid nature, but I always expect a reaction like that to be well calculated.

[Lathum]

Based on your actions this morning. I come out leaning towards voting fouts and explain why, you jump all over me for my thoughts, but then when I finally decide to go with cronin for the day you suddenly jump on the vote with me and leave the discussion with the comment that you'll go along with me for the cronin vote, but then if cronin is good, we need to go after me next (and ignore fouts).

Those actions just implanted some connection between you two in my head.

Alan, I didn't jump on you for wanting to vote for fouts. I jumped on you because of the notion that the police chief wouldn't vote for a member of stars when it was quiet possible BOTH were members of starts.

Then you act like it was some big risk you were taking voting on St. Cronin like you had some revelation. I voted for Cronin yesterday and saw no reason to change my vote. If you look back through previous games I usually vote the same person the first 2 days unless there is a reason not to. Don't act like I was "going along with you" because that's not the case at all. If anything YOU are going along with ME since you voted bulletsponge yesterday.

[Tyrith]

it's not alway a give up case though. I actually have only self voted once and like I said it was due to complete frustration. That could be why it was done, it also could be a rouse to fool us which I've seen used and work in the past too. If you dump the vote and survive you will be questioned about it later on as well so the safest vote is on yourself in the case of frustration. I guess the other side is if he does die and is bad it gives no one any analysis as well. I think dropping out because of frustration is total bush league though, and no I wouldn't say self voting falls in that category in all cases.

If you're frustrated and you vote yourself then leave that's giving up to me. I know it's been talked about in the past that self voting should be banned, and I absolutely agree with that idea. If someone is going to be totally frustrated and not try to play well then they should quit for the good of the team, and for themselves -- don't stay in the game if it's making you feel worse! This is supposed to be fun!

Oh, and Brian, it wasn't calculated because I was, and still am, rather pissed. This entire discussion, at least on my side, is totally OOC.

[LoneStarGirl]

I definitly dont think St. Cronin is a STARS and the only reason i voted for him yesterday was because he was the worse of the two evils in my opinions. I just think Alan is trying to sound o smart so that everybody believes everything he says. Well I am not buying it. Plus I am still angry that he didn't let me be a cowboy in Tombstone.

Vote AlanT

[LoneStarGirl]

I am close to voting for Tyrith just because he is whining too much, but I am going to refrain.

[BrianD]

If you're frustrated and you vote yourself then leave that's giving up to me. I know it's been talked about in the past that self voting should be banned, and I absolutely agree with that idea. If someone is going to be totally frustrated and not try to play well then they should quit for the good of the team, and for themselves -- don't stay in the game if it's making you feel worse! This is supposed to be fun!

Oh, and Brian, it wasn't calculated because I was, and still am, rather pissed. This entire discussion, at least on my side, is totally OOC.

I knew I should have gone back and clarified that. I meant that I thought st.cronin's reaction was calculated. If he turns out to be bad, I won't be surprised at all if he comes back smiling at a radical gambit that didn't work. I could be totally off though.

[Tyrith]

I am close to voting for Tyrith just because he is whining too much, but I am going to refrain.

And now I'm close to voting to you for thinking about voting that way.

[st.cronin]

Funny stuff, Anxiety.

Cronin, lets talk this through if you are STARS. I'm going to come at it from my perspective on the game so there will be assumptions in here that I am STARS. If you choose to ignore these, that is fine.

1.) Lathum comes out and votes for me on Day 1. Clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
2.) You come out shortly thereafter, saying that an early vote = bad guy or Chief, then vote early for me. You are clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
3.) You become the 2nd choice candidate yesterday in a runoff with a hero (Bullet)
4.) You come out today and say that the strategy should be to look for the people who voted early for Bullet, although that makes zero sense if it was STARS vs STARS as you assert
5.) You now say that Lathum is not the Chief because he voted for you early - the EXACT argument I made yesterday when he voted for me


If you are STARS, then it would make sense to look at the people who advocated the inclusion of both you and Bullet yesterday, not just the people who pushed for Bullet.

So, what am I missing with this analysis that should help me believe you are STARS and that we should be starting to look at new candidates rather than considering voting records from yesterday?


Ok, back from lunch, sorry about the meltdown. Still working my way through the thread, but I like working with hoops.

1. My thinking yesterday, which has been either deliberately misrepresented by people, or which I did not explain clearly was this - the FIRST vote on any given player, and the first vote overall, were MOST likely to come from either the police chief or umbrella/zombie. That vote came from Lathum. The reason I didn't vote for Lathum was, if he WAS the police chief, the possibility of a bandwagon/landslide vote made that too risky a move. So my thinking was, vote for the guy he votes for - if hoops turns up good, then I think it's better than even odds that Lathum is bad. Then today Lathum votes for ME first - so I know he's not the police chief. Hence, he's high on my list.

4. The early votes for bullet were BEFORE it was clear that it would be a stars v stars contest. This was hashed out before between me and I forget who - somebody said, wouldn't it be the the LATE votes that are more likely to be bad guys? And I said "no, because the late votes were choosing between stars and stars." The EARLY votes, and in particular the FIRST vote for bullet, I think are most likely to be non-stars.

5. If you can make the argument, why can't I? You say you're stars, I say I'm stars. Neither one of us knows about the other one.

[Abe Sargent]

I personally agree with Tyrith on the self-voting thing.

[st.cronin]

unvote st.cronin
vote AlanT

I will be around for a little less than an hour. I suspect Lathum and AlanT at the moment.

[Tyrith]

So, cronin, where are you gonna go? Because I really want to make this a race situation.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I already stated that I am not the police chief. Im not quite sure what you are referring to here.
I'm referring to st.cronin's post saying that you are not the chief, which I was taking to be making a logical inference rather than just taking you at your word.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Are you suggesting an alternative?
Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

[st.cronin]

I have class tonight. I will probably be back before the deadline, but not much before the deadline.

And yes, Mr. W is correct - we know AlanT is not the police chief because of his vote yesterday. There is NO other player that we can all agree that that is true.

[Tyrith]

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

Sigh, sadly I've kind of reached this point too.

[BrianD]

And yes, Mr. W is correct - we know AlanT is not the police chief because of his vote yesterday. There is NO other player that we can all agree that that is true.

You are saying this because he was the first to vote for Bullet, right?

[Mr. Wednesday]

1. My thinking yesterday, which has been either deliberately misrepresented by people, or which I did not explain clearly was this - the FIRST vote on any given player, and the first vote overall, were MOST likely to come from either the police chief or umbrella/zombie. That vote came from Lathum. The reason I didn't vote for Lathum was, if he WAS the police chief, the possibility of a bandwagon/landslide vote made that too risky a move. So my thinking was, vote for the guy he votes for - if hoops turns up good, then I think it's better than even odds that Lathum is bad. Then today Lathum votes for ME first - so I know he's not the police chief. Hence, he's high on my list.
I'm not sure I agree with this reasoning--I disagree that the first vote on any given player is particularly more likely to be from Umbrella or a zombie--but at least it makes your actions make sense.

4. The early votes for bullet were BEFORE it was clear that it would be a stars v stars contest. This was hashed out before between me and I forget who - somebody said, wouldn't it be the the LATE votes that are more likely to be bad guys? And I said "no, because the late votes were choosing between stars and stars." The EARLY votes, and in particular the FIRST vote for bullet, I think are most likely to be non-stars.
Again, I don't know about the first vote, but I think there's something to your argument here about early votes.

[st.cronin]

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

See, I don't understand this. If you suspect somebody of being a zombie, go ahead and name him. How can you naming a suspect possibly lead anybody to the chief?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Because my reasoning is entirely based on a particular theory of something the chief would have done -- my reason for selecting the candidate points directly to a possible chief.

[st.cronin]

You are saying this because he was the first to vote for Bullet, right?

YES

[path12]

And now I'm close to voting to you for thinking about voting that way.

Ah, werewolf. :D

[BrianD]

YES

Thought so, just wanted to make sure I didn't miss anything.

[st.cronin]

Because my reasoning is entirely based on a particular theory of something the chief would have done -- my reason for selecting the candidate points directly to a possible chief.

But you don't have to elaborate on your reasoning.

[Tyrith]

Cronin's reasoning is sound, Alan is more likely to be a bad guy -- the fact that he isn't the police chief mathematically means there are fewer good slots for him to occupy. Meaning you have a marginal advantage over anyone else. The same is true, with diminshing chances, for the people that voted for bullet in order. If cronin is also good then after the first few votes it doesn't really matter because of the race situation, which would also explain the lack of late movement yesterday.

[st.cronin]

Cronin's reasoning is sound

well allelujah

[Tyrith]

I really don't want to kill cronin.

UNVOTE FOUTS
VOTE ALAN

[SnDvls]

correct me if I'm wrong

(445) AlanT votes Cronin (1)
(452) Lathum votes Cronin (2)
(454) Cronin votes Lathum (1)
(527) Cronin unvotes Lathum(0)***
(527) Cronin votes AlanT (1)
(538) Anxiety votes Cronin (3)
(546) Cronin unvotes AlanT(0) ***
(546) Cronin votes Cronin (4)
(553) BrianD votes Cronin (5)
(564) Spleen votes AlanT(1)
(573) Tyrith votes Fouts (1)
(580) LSG votes AlanT (2)
(586) Cronin unvotes Cronin (4) ***
(586) Cronin votes AlanT(3)

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(3) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586)
(1) Fouts - Tyrith (573)
(0) Lathum

[SnDvls]

dola
damn I'll fix it with Tyrith's recent change.

[SnDvls]

as of post #604

correct me if I'm wrong

(445) AlanT votes Cronin (1)
(452) Lathum votes Cronin (2)
(454) Cronin votes Lathum (1)
(527) Cronin unvotes Lathum(0)***
(527) Cronin votes AlanT (1)
(538) Anxiety votes Cronin (3)
(546) Cronin unvotes AlanT(0) ***
(546) Cronin votes Cronin (4)
(553) BrianD votes Cronin (5)
(564) Spleen votes AlanT(1)
(573) Tyrith votes Fouts (1)
(580) LSG votes AlanT (2)
(586) Cronin unvotes Cronin (4) ***
(586) Cronin votes AlanT(3)
(602) Tyrith unvotes Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith votes AlanT (4)

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), Tyrith (602)
(0) Fouts
(0) Lathum

[st.cronin]

That's a lot of people still haven't voted.

[Alan T]

Woo, love the sudden vote swing while I left to go home :)

Well at least on the bright side its now a race to see where people draw their allegiances. Not sure what else I can say, I've pretty much given my opinions on things all day to the point you all are voting me because you're tired of them :)

If folks have questions, I'll answer them. Otherwise I'll just sit back and watch for a while.

[SnDvls]

That's a lot of people still haven't voted.

not votes thus far

path12, ntndeacon, Glengoyne, Mr. Wednesday, Chief Rum, Fouts, saldana, SnDvls, hoopsguy

[Mr. Wednesday]

I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.

[SnDvls]

I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.

there are still 9 of us who also feel that way too by the non-votes

[st.cronin]

I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.

I urge you to put forth a candidate. There are, what, 9 players who haven't voted? Anything can happen.

[Alan T]

I really don't want a st.cronin vs. Alan face-off today. Unfortunately, my other choices for piling onto have disappeared.

Its 4 to 4 with alot of people who haven't voted yet. If you have someone else there is plenty of time to make a case for them. The way you are making yourself sound you're trying to set up distance for a possible villager lynch where you can later say "I didn't want either to die"

I feel pretty comfortable in a run off with Cronin right now, I think the Stars still have the odds of numbers and in the end I'll win this vote. I think I'm pretty convinced after Cronin tried to make people have doubts that he might be the police chief. So I'm ok sitting back like this is.. but I don't like your approach of sitting back and saying well I dont want to vote for either of them but you all are forcing me to.

If you want to vote for someone else, do it and make a case for them. Otherwise vote for who you think is most likely bad (even if its for me) then that way you have some accountability when it turns up that Im good.

[SnDvls]

I urge you to put forth a candidate. There are, what, 9 players who haven't voted? Anything can happen.

ha beat you to it :)

[Alan T]

As everyone chimes out with the same thing lol..

[Alan T]

ha beat you to it :)

You beat me to it too.. but I typed more!

[LoneStarGirl]

To be honest I dont want a cronin vs alan thing today either, they both lead the discussion and throw out a lot of ideas. But i can't shake this feeling that alan is playing us. And I too said F this in my last game cuz i felt i was being ganged up on for no reason... so i probably am sympathizing with Cronin

[Tyrith]

How can us STARS know to save you Alan? What real solid evidence have you given us to swing the vote away from you? Really I don't want you or cronin to be lynched today; I prefer that the two of you go at it a while longer and drag in some more people so we can learn more later. But there is zero momentum for anyone else. I'm willing to try Fouts again, or really if anyone has any kind of ideas please just put them out there.

[st.cronin]

Tyrith, Mr. W:

Do either of you have any thoughts on Lathum or BrianD? Or even hoopsguy?

[Alan T]

How can us STARS know to save you Alan? What real solid evidence have you given us to swing the vote away from you? Really I don't want you or cronin to be lynched today; I prefer that the two of you go at it a while longer and drag in some more people so we can learn more later. But there is zero momentum for anyone else. I'm willing to try Fouts again, or really if anyone has any kind of ideas please just put them out there.

Right now as Im watching today, I am just noting who makes what cases for what. I guess I'm looking to see who is using what I feel is sound judgement for their cases and giving good reasoning for it. There are some who seem to be making some BS excuses and jumping on one or the other.. there are others who seem to be trying to distance themselves from any bad response at all..

If I do live today, I won't necessarily think bad of someone because they voted for me. I will however think bad of someone who votes for me because of a lame reason, or does the vote and run or such.

I can't give you any proof not to vote for me, but I have given you mathematical reasons why others are better votes today. Even if not 100%, its still the mathematical best choices.

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, Mr. W:

Do either of you have any thoughts on Lathum or BrianD? Or even hoopsguy?

The entire Brian thing was overblown. KWhit was very likely just doing a typical Day 1 thing and was a mostly random kill. Right now he's in the big group of neutrals I have.

Lathum, I don't like his plan of killing everyone that's been talking seeing that it will collect me eventually :) He's doing his typical Lathum thing, somehow dodging attention even though he stirred up trouble yesterday. Definately worth keeping an eye on.

Hoops...my paranoid fear was that he and Lathum were bad guys together again and doing another distraction ploy to seperate themselves, but I quickly dismissed that because of the way we like to create Day 1 dogpiles for no good reason. Hoops scares me just because he's hoops.

The one thing I've really noticed is how Lathum has managed to isolate himself from cronin, hoops, and possibly alan. I'm not really sure what to make of this.

And I still hate my vote.

[Mr. Wednesday]

OK, I think I'll have a little bit of a go at setting a field other than st.cronin and Alan.

Lathum: First vote overall, voted for hoops and switched to st.cronin; if you trust both players, this should be worrisome. Briefly caught a stray vote by Chief Rum.
Fouts: First vote on st.cronin, but hasn't done anything else that should attract attention. Caught a stray vote by ntndeacon.
ntndeacon: First vote on fouts, left it there as a stray vote.
hoopsguy, spleen, Tyrith, Sndvls: Early rush onto bulletsponge.
path12: Created a tie by voting for st.cronin, says it was intentional at that stage to try to flush more votes.
BrianD, Saldana, myself: Next rush of votes onto bulletsponge; I justify my vote by observing that by now, it's been far too long without any word from him.
LoneStarGirl: Makes a possible throwaway vote when it appears that bulletsponge is pretty securely lynched; as we know that he was STARS, we can be sure that there would not have been a late rush by Umbrella/zombies to save him.
Glengoyne and Chief Rum: votes so late on Bulletsponge that they are effectively throwaways.

[path12]

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

I just went back through all of day 1 and I'm in the same boat you describe here.

[Lathum]

Lathum, I don't like his plan of killing everyone that's been talking seeing that it will collect me eventually :) He's doing his typical Lathum thing, somehow dodging attention even though he stirred up trouble yesterday. Definately worth keeping an eye on.


.

lol

[Mr. Wednesday]

The one thing I've really noticed is how Lathum has managed to isolate himself from cronin, hoops, and possibly alan. I'm not really sure what to make of this.
That's an interesting observation, which might actually tend to be in his favor.

[path12]

I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think it's possible. I don't have a firm opinion on it, though.

[Tyrith]

I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?

The thought has certainly crossed my mind.

[Fouts]

Ok, caught up. After reading Alan's reasoning about why he chose myself and cronin, I can see where he's going with it. The flaw is that if we only have 2 candidates (both STARS), then the PC is pigeon-holed into voting for one of them.

I think there is a reason the zombies kiled KWhit. They are after the PC, so they had an inkling that KWhit might have been the PC.

[SnDvls]

The thought has certainly crossed my mind.

it should have crossed most people's minds, only because today is really like day 1 in that bullett didn't even know he was playing. day 1 usually is two villagers fighting it out. I guess you could say some of this also happened yesterday though.

[hoopsguy]

Catching up, but I'm willing to back an alternate candidate besides the two guys with four votes.

[Fouts]

I think we need a 3rd candidate. Giving the PC only 2 options may not help us later in the game. I agree with others in that the PC's biggest role is his voting record.

vote BrianD

[hoopsguy]

Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?

This is factoring into my thinking right now as I'm going back to review Day 2 behavior.

[Tyrith]

Gonna be gone for two hours or so. I hope we come up with another candidate while I'm gone :)

[path12]

Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?

I would have gone after either you or cronin.

[path12]

i spent the rest of the day at work contemplating things, and i am relatively sure that cronin is a good guy. i have no take on bullet at this point, but unless i am way off base, cronin and i are on the same team...my vote is to keep him alive.

saldana, do you still feel this way?

[path12]

Sorry about all the questions, I'm trying to work out some things in my mind but want to be careful about what I put out there at the moment.

So then, one more: Does anyone feel Lathum and AlanT are both stars?

And finally: Does all this star/non-star talk remind anyone else of the Sneetches?

[hoopsguy]

If somone scanned Cronin last night and learned his faction was STARS, how do you think they would operate today? Just how public would they want to be in the process of defending him?

Flip it around - if they scanned him and saw him as another faction, would they come out and reveal directly or hope that we followed up on the candidate from yesterday?

So right now I'm trying to figure out if someone is taking a hard stand either way on him and how that might differ from yesterday's thoughts on Cronin.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Just a general question - if you had the ability as a member of STARS to night scan last night, who would you have gone after?

Would you have gone after a particular player because of track record in the game or would you have gone after someone who, situationally, made sense after Day 1 was complete?

If I weren't thinking as much as I should about it, I'd go after someone like Alan who was doing a lot of talking, so that I knew how much stock to put in it.

If I were thinking a little bit more clearly, I would probably take a shot at identifying the target of a possible police chief (not the chief himself), which would give info both about the target and about the prospective chief.

The discussion about how the chief I think came late enough that I might not have been bright enough to think about the second angle.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If somone scanned Cronin last night and learned his faction was STARS, how do you think they would operate today? Just how public would they want to be in the process of defending him?

Flip it around - if they scanned him and saw him as another faction, would they come out and reveal directly or hope that we followed up on the candidate from yesterday?

So right now I'm trying to figure out if someone is taking a hard stand either way on him and how that might differ from yesterday's thoughts on Cronin.

Has anybody really played it differently today than yesterday, though? I'm thinking not... Alan was pressuring him yesterday, and has been pushing today too. There's been some general unease in other quarters, but nothing I'd count as an outright defense.

[hoopsguy]

I've seen this game from AlanT before and I don't trust him one bit. My vote was for St.Cronin yesterday and I am sticking with it today but IF he is lynched AND he comes up good I am all over AlanT tomorrow.

VOTE ST.CRONIN


Lathum, this is one of the things that make me uneasy about you.

1.) You vote for me Day 1
2.) You chastise Alan for his play today, then say you are sticking with your Day 1 vote. But if you Day 1 and 2 vote, St. Cronin is wrong, then you are blaming Alan for it

That is the kind of table-setting you can do more easily with somewhat complete information. Cronin and I both maintain that you cannot be the Police Chief and make the votes you have made this game. So you do not have player information in that manner .... what does that leave? Hmm, two factions that know each other.


If I believe Cronin today I really think you are the person that we should be voting for more than Alan or Fouts or anyone else who has been suggested.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm going to make a semi-placeholder vote right now, but I am very interested in hoops' latest line of discussion. (i.e. there's a reasonable chance my vote will change before the end of the night, er, day)

VOTE BrianD

[path12]

I think we need a 3rd candidate. Giving the PC only 2 options may not help us later in the game. I agree with others in that the PC's biggest role is his voting record.

vote BrianD

I would also like a 3rd candidate, but I see absolutely no reason to suspect BrianD.

vote Lathum

I see no way that both Lathum and AlanT are stars, and I'm more willing given the posts to date to give Alan the benefit of the doubt.

[hoopsguy]

I'll go ahead and put my vote down for now. Time will tell if Lathum can move me off of it.

VOTE LATHUM

[saldana]

saldana, do you still feel this way?

yes...i think alan's logic is highly flawed...he is making huge leaps and assumptions that i am not comfortable with...i am not sure yet where my vote will land but it will be either alan or lathum today...cronin is on the radar, but is a very small blip at this point

[hoopsguy]

I think I have found what I was looking for earlier. There is not much chance that I will be voting for Cronin today.

[BrianD]

So why am I picking up votes?

[BrianD]

I think I have found what I was looking for earlier. There is not much chance that I will be voting for Cronin today.

You might need to expand on this a bit.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, I think I'm narrowing in on a few roles after having the last 45 minutes to review posts from today. I do not think it is necessarily in STARS' best interests to expand on what roles are potentially held by who (heck, I'm wrong a lot) but for today I'm unlikely to vote for Cronin.

[path12]

I'll be out in about 10 minutes and likely not back before lynch -- the gf signed us up for some kind of get out the vote volunteer thing. I'm fine with where I'm at anyway -- I think we get the most information out of either Alan or Lathum right now.

[Glengoyne]

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

This is where I stand with a little over a page to catch up on. Up to this opint I have been thinking I was going to vote Alan. If the choice is Alan or Cronin. I didn't see the Cronin connection so much as others, so I was sharing his frustration with receiving heat. Then I just got to the self vote. That throws me into a quandry.

Early votes are brutal, as there is so little to go on. I know I'm much more comfortable evaluating a person's posts in light of their voting history after a few days. I know the conventional wisdom is that the wolves benefit if there is no lynch...I just have a problem with that in the early going. We don't have any history voting, in game actions, or really even post history to hold against someone. If someone strongly represents wolf, at least in my estimation, then I'll vote for them early and often. I'm just not comfortable voting with no guidance early in the game.

Just a note: A long damn time has passed since I typed this post, but I'm hitting submit anyway.

[Alan T]

I'll be out in about 10 minutes and likely not back before lynch -- the gf signed us up for some kind of get out the vote volunteer thing. I'm fine with where I'm at anyway -- I think we get the most information out of either Alan or Lathum right now.

Well someone is going to have to get the guts to break the tie to get any information from anyone. Even if it means voting for me, as the way things are we dont learn anything.

I already told you what you will learn if you lynch me tonight, so if you want to pursue that go for it. I'll be good, and everyone will be going after Cronin tommorrow.

I honestly don't know what going after BrianD tonight tells us.. we went over that discussion earlier today and for the life of me I don't know why people are choosing him other than just to have a 3rd candidate. I think Fouts, Lathum, Cronin all make better 3rd candidates today.. I dont have a problem with people voting for him, but i need more than a placeholder or a third option (since we have 4).

I think the people who have argued the case against Cronin, myself and Lathum all have laid out semi-believable arguements one way or another. Even if I dont agree with it, at least they put effort into it that can be looked at and analyzed later.

So this is mainly to Fouts and Mr.Wednesday who just threw votes away at BrianD, if you are going to do so at least give a reason why for people to agree with and join you on or to disagree with. Also gives him the ability to defend himself.

I personally still think lynching Cronin is the best idea, but I have spent most of the day explaining why. If you disagree with it, then at least give the reason why you are voting someone else (This also goes for those who just jumped on votes because.. well they wanted to)

[Alan T]

This is where I stand with a little over a page to catch up on. Up to this opint I have been thinking I was going to vote Alan. If the choice is Alan or Cronin. I didn't see the Cronin connection so much as others, so I was sharing his frustration with receiving heat. Then I just got to the self vote. That throws me into a quandry.

Early votes are brutal, as there is so little to go on. I know I'm much more comfortable evaluating a person's posts in light of their voting history after a few days. I know the conventional wisdom is that the wolves benefit if there is no lynch...I just have a problem with that in the early going. We don't have any history voting, in game actions, or really even post history to hold against someone. If someone strongly represents wolf, at least in my estimation, then I'll vote for them early and often. I'm just not comfortable voting with no guidance early in the game.

Just a note: A long damn time has passed since I typed this post, but I'm hitting submit anyway.

Well thats the thing. Only a small handful of people know anything for sure in the early parts of the game, and those people are most likely going to not come out and say it in order to try to build more information.

So usually the first few days you dont have a ton to go on but we still have to vote. We still need the record of who you went with, who you believed and who you didnt believe.

If you vote me and I end up getting lynched, will it look bad for you? Of course it will, but then its up to everyone else to determine if you were just a misguided villager that fell for other people's stories, or if you were one of the people who jumped into a close vote to try to edge it one way or another.

Can an innocent villager's actions wrongly condemn them? Sure they can, but sometimes thats all we have, and a little wheat has to be burnt for the sake of the entire crop.

[Lathum]

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

[Lathum]

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, but it gave the strong appearance that you were displacing blame for your vote.

Your Day 1 vote was for me initially. You moved it when I pushed back and two other candidates emerged.

Day 2 emerges, you suggest that you own the Cronin vote (Alan is following you) but if that vote for the last two days - remember, you are claiming it rather than the 'placeholder' on me - is wrong it isn't you who is responsible. It is Alan T!

People make mistakes all the times in werewolf games with their votes. Clearly a portion of the 11 people yesterday (me included) did exactly that. But you certainly gave me the impression that you were setting up the dominos with your comments today for WHEN you make a mistake.

[Glengoyne]

...
Glengoyne and Chief Rum: votes so late on Bulletsponge that they are effectively throwaways.

I work. I had nothing to go on early yesterday. Same today.

I'm catching up, and making my mind up along the way. Yesterday, my vote was essentially throw away, but only because the decision was made hours before while I was away. I had actually made up my mind fairly early in the "thread history", when SnDvls laid out his reasoning for voting bullet.

Today as I'm reading along, it looks like voting late is going to put me in a tight spot, as it is a tight race with me as one of the deciding factors. Since this vote is going to count, I'm going to try and put some serious evaluation into it. My gut says to vote Alan, but my gut was dead wrong about Saldana in Tombstone, and there I felt I had little bits of evidence at least. I'll be back after catching up, and then following up.

[Fouts]

Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

[SnDvls]

vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

[Alan T]

Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD? :) We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?

[Fouts]

Just to add, I am not saying that st.cronin and Alan are STARS. I have no knowledge of their faction. Their posts make me believe they are STARS, even if they are reaching with their theories.

[Alan T]

vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

What heat did I tail off on? Other than the hour I left to drive home from work, I've been here the entire time. Are you just making that up? :)

I have taken the heat all day and responded with my opinions. Its posts like this that will stand out after I am lynched and I want everyone to remember it.

[Alan T]

I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please :)

[Fouts]

Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD? :) We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?

Sorry, I didn't remember who came up with the theory. While reading 4 pages of stuff, it was exactly what I was thinking when I saw who they killed. I kept thinking, why KWhit?

It's the only evidence I have right now. KWhit is dead for a reason. I'm trying to figure it out.

[Fouts]

I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please :)

I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.

[Tyrith]

We have over 3 hours to lynch, so don't accuse me of making a tie. But I hate the Alan vote. My mind tells me cronin is probably a good guy. My gut is telling me that we should let Alan keep talking a while longer and see what people do to him. Lathum, however, is a different story. He tangled with Alan this morning and is doing his wonderful spectacular job at dodging any real blame. And to be honest, I'm kind of scared of him.

My problem with SnDvls reasoning is that Alan could be the helpful wolf or the helpful villager and it might look the same. Alan, you are far from my trust list, so don't think that I'm letting you get away, but I think we can learn more from you before it comes time to deal with you, one way or another.

UNVOTE ALAN
VOTE LATHUM

[Alan T]

I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.

I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)

[Tyrith]

I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)

I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.

[Alan T]

I like how Sndvls tosses out false accusations and then leaves immediately. As you can see my response was posted a minute after his.

[Alan T]

I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.

Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.

[Tyrith]

Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.

Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.

[Alan T]

Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.

Thats my point. I am perfectly open for a more predictable option today, but everyone is all talk. People like bashing my ideas, but no one has presented one better.

[Tyrith]

Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

[Alan T]

Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally :)

[Glengoyne]

I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?

That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.

[Alan T]

That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.

well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste :)

[Tyrith]

I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally :)

Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool :) However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.

[Tyrith]

well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste :)

That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha

[Alan T]

Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool :) However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.

the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable

[Alan T]

That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha

Well another mathematical fact for you... I have died on day 3 a higher percentage of games than any other day :)

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #679:

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), SnDvls (658)
(3) Lathum - Path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665)
(2) BrianD - Fouts (631), MrW (641)

No Votes: NTN, Glen, Chief Rum, Saldana

[Tyrith]

the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable

Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.

[Alan T]

Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.

Yes, but the same is said about Cronin... so I don't see how its relevant here though. Thats the point I am making. :)

I can see that arguement used in me vs someone who has the possibility of being the chief, but me vs cronin it does not apply in. Neither of us are the chief.

[Tyrith]

True. Sigh, these tiny mathematical margins will never get us anywhere in reality compared to the things people say, but at least math is consistent. Bleeeehhh.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

[Alan T]

Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

I am not sure I quite follow you here. As a generic STARS with no role, the best benefit I can do is try to push people's buttons and get them to be logical with their thoughts rather than just hide behind the oh he feels bad lines. I can draw attention away from other STARS with bigger roles since my loss is of less importance.

Right now, there is me + 7 or 8 other stars out of 16 other people. When I did the math this morning and factored in the people who I either know cant be the PC or feel very strongly aren't the PC, I felt I had 93% odds between Fouts and St.Cronin we had at least 1 bad guy. Mix in the stuff Cronin has said that i called him out on yesterday and today, my feeling is a 99.9% chance that Cronin is bad. Do I know for sure? no so its not 100%.

[st.cronin]

hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.

[Alan T]

hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.

I've been reduced to nothingness? :)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?

[Tyrith]

Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

[Alan T]

Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

My ex-wife would like that

[st.cronin]

Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

[Alan T]

Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

I dont see how it would apply to me since Im on the same side as the PC though.

[Alan T]

Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?

my theory this morning assumes behavior. My mathematical percentage only assumes behavior based directed torwards me and things I know to be true.

[st.cronin]

I've been reduced to nothingness? :)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?

I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay, so I think Alan's theorys are border line far out there, but I dont think that makes him a zombie... After reading this and realizing that AlanT has in fact answered every question we have thrown at him, I have concluded either he got a degree in BS or he is a STARS. With that being said, I dont like the votes for Cronin... That leaves Lathum. And between lathum and alant, alant has been far more helpful and amusing thus far.

Unvote AlanT/B]

[B]Vote Lathum

[Alan T]

I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.

Weird, the feeling i have to lathum is more likely 25/25/50 with most likely being zombie :)

I'm pretty sure that I am 100/0/0 but i will forgive you for not being exactly right. Since you only have me as 10% zombie, does that mean you're zombie and most likely dont think I'm on your team? (sorry I mainly kid here because at this point I don't know what direct attack will accomplish. I've said most of what I wanted to you) :)

[LoneStarGirl]

How silly...

Unvote AlanT

Vote Lathum

[st.cronin]

Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

Part of the difference is that I don't know what side you're on.

[Glengoyne]

Well S#!%.

I don't feel strongly any of the front runners.

I was leaning Cronin's way, and looking to vote Alan, but he really seems to be being up front, and it is apparently more natural to lynch him tomorrow.

Then Cronin self voted and unvoted. Plus there was a wave of votes against Alan which might signify people coming to Cronin's aid. The self vote, self unvote makes me feel like voting for him, because it seems manipulative and planned. Lynching Cronin to find that he is Stars, tells us little. If we lynch him and he comes up other than STARS, then that would give us something concrete to go on. That might be something I can get behind. There is an upside to voting Cronin, IF he comes up evil.

I'm not real happy with the Lathum or BrianD votes, other than the fact that they aren't Cronin. BrianD has been less active, so there is a bit of attraction to that, plus the thought that lynching him might turn into a Jackpot if the wolves targetted Kwhit because he was a threat.

That makes BrianD and Cronin the two best votes in my book.

vote BrianD would give us two ties. vote Cronin would give us a leader with three voters left to go.

Honestly the most suspicious person I've seen was snDvls. He waltzes in says that AlanT backed off when the heat was applied, while I haven't been here watching, I did note, while catching up, that damn every other post seems to be Alan's. My gut is now telling me to vote SnDvls.

I'd feel better about lynching him than anyone else at the forefront. I don't know enough to know if this is going to make me look bad as if I'm dodging a tie break. I do know that he seems to have pretty clearly misrepresented the facts, and that would make me comfortable even being the first vote for him, even if he is somehow lynched.

It is the vote I feel best making

Vote SnDvls

[Alan T]

Okay, so I think Alan's theorys are border line far out there, but I dont think that makes him a zombie... After reading this and realizing that AlanT has in fact answered every question we have thrown at him, I have concluded either he got a degree in BS or he is a STARS. With that being said, I dont like the votes for Cronin... That leaves Lathum. And between lathum and alant, alant has been far more helpful and amusing thus far.

Unvote AlanT/B]

[B]Vote Lathum

Well at least I have been amusing. That warrants keeping me around another day! :)

[Glengoyne]

Part of the difference is that I don't know what side you're on.

/thinking out loud
That is odd. This post makes me think you distinctly DO know what team you are both on. /end thinking out loud

[st.cronin]

/thinking out loud
That is odd. This post makes me think you distinctly DO know what team you are both on. /end thinking out loud

lol

"I'm not a wolf."
"It's obvious this is a trick! He must be lynched!"

[Fouts]

Geez, nice long post to say you are throwing your vote out the window. Thanks Glen.

[Alan T]

(4) St.Cronin - Alan (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) Lathum - path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665), Lonestargirl (698)
(3) Alan T - Spleen (564), St.cronin (586), Sndvls (658)
(2) BrianD - Fouts (631), Mr.Wednesday (641)
(1) Sndvls - Glengoyne (700)


Right now, still same thing as before. Ending in a tie is the worst scenerio. Lynching a STARS that isnt an important role is better than a tie since we will learn nothing.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm pretty sure we are looking at Cronin differently when factoring in the Police Chief. Of course, if you adopt that outlook then it assumes that Cronin is in fact STARS.

We know that Bullet was STARS. The math on the 2nd person being STARS, after the first one was (Bullet) is probably above 50%.

[Tyrith]

Rum is viewing, I'll be interested to hear his take.

[st.cronin]

btw, even if I wasn't one of the 2 he voted for, I would be very uneasy using KWhits day 1 votes as pointing at zombies. If I were a zombie I would be delighted to have a chance to point suspicion at two non-zombies.

[LoneStarGirl]

I plan on being on for awhile, I would hate a lynch to happen... I might change my vote if it looks like a lynch is inevitable.

[Alan T]

Alan, I'm pretty sure we are looking at Cronin differently when factoring in the Police Chief. Of course, if you adopt that outlook then it assumes that Cronin is in fact STARS.

We know that Bullet was STARS. The math on the 2nd person being STARS, after the first one was (Bullet) is probably above 50%.

So you are saying that Bullet + the first two people who voted him were all Stars? The odds of that happening doesn't seem as great, but when talking about influenced actions its a bit tougher to stick math on it than simply what the odds of having a role are.

[Fouts]

Right now, still same thing as before. Ending in a tie is the worst scenerio. Lynching a STARS that isnt an important role is better than a tie since we will learn nothing.

So you are saying lynching you is better than a tie?

[Alan T]

I plan on being on for awhile, I would hate a lynch to happen... I might change my vote if it looks like a lynch is inevitable.

I might be reading this wrong... I hope I am.

[Alan T]

So you are saying lynching you is better than a tie?

Yes because lynching me then will put validity in my words and point you at Sndvls, Cronin, Fouts (yourself), Lathum or Mr.Wednesday in my opinion right now for tommorrow.

[st.cronin]

unvote AlanT
vote Lathum

[Tyrith]

So you are saying lynching you is better than a tie?

I think he's implied that throughout the day, at least we'd learn some things about cronin and such.

[Alan T]

Yes because lynching me then will put validity in my words and point you at Sndvls, Cronin, Fouts (yourself), Lathum or Mr.Wednesday in my opinion right now for tommorrow.

expanding on that some, I dont have any important role, so if a STARS -HAS- to die, Im as good as any. I provide a paper trail and the team doesnt lose out on an important role.

[Glengoyne]

Geez, nice long post to say you are throwing your vote out the window. Thanks Glen.

Bullshit.

Pile on, and I'll stand by it. It is something I can defend.

[Fouts]

btw, even if I wasn't one of the 2 he voted for, I would be very uneasy using KWhits day 1 votes as pointing at zombies. If I were a zombie I would be delighted to have a chance to point suspicion at two non-zombies.

I disagree. It is so important that the zombies find the PC that I don't think they would waste a night making somebody suspicious. It is a nice side effect, but should be trying hard to hit the PC.

So... why KWhit?

[hoopsguy]

I don't think that the first two people voting on Bullet have any bearing on the likelihood of Cronin being STARS/notSTARS.

But, to answer your question - if you are STARS then that is exactly what happened.

[Fouts]

I plan on being on for awhile, I would hate a lynch to happen... I might change my vote if it looks like a lynch is inevitable.

I'm pretty sure you meant tie vice lynch.

[Fouts]

Bullshit.

Pile on, and I'll stand by it. It is something I can defend.

I agree that SnDvls is acting suspicious, but what chance is that 4 other people will jump on that vote this late in the day?

[Tyrith]

I disagree. It is so important that the zombies find the PC that I don't think they would waste a night making somebody suspicious. It is a nice side effect, but should be trying hard to hit the PC.

So... why KWhit?

Because he could have been the PC, wasn't a part of the Alan/cronin/hoops/lathum D1 mess, is a generally good player. And possible they get to cause suspicion even if he isn't PC. Hunting the PC and causing suspicion are not mutually exclusive goals.

[Alan T]

I don't think that the first two people voting on Bullet have any bearing on the likelihood of Cronin being STARS/notSTARS.

But, to answer your question - if you are STARS then that is exactly what happened.

I think Im having too many conversations at once. Sorry I think I confused what you are arguing. I right now think Cronin is not stars based on first mathematical odd, backed up by supported behavior that I found suspicious (as I mentioned throughout the day). Not as much due to his vote on bullet

[Tyrith]

Bullshit.

Pile on, and I'll stand by it. It is something I can defend.

It is somewhat suspicious, I have to admire you for having guts. People are always saying you should vote for who you think is bad, and this is a good example of it. We're definately gonna have to look at sndvls tomorrow.

[st.cronin]

I disagree. It is so important that the zombies find the PC that I don't think they would waste a night making somebody suspicious. It is a nice side effect, but should be trying hard to hit the PC.

So... why KWhit?

If you really think that, then you have to believe that either myself or BrianD (or both) is a zombie. Not umbrella, but a zombie.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts - KWhit cast two votes, neither of them for Bullet.

You could be right that BrianD was a zombie and they don't know what Cronin is. Or it could be that he cast two votes for players and they do not know the allegiance of either. How many people fit that profile from Day 1? I'll take a look now for the answer to that question.

[LoneStarGirl]

I'm pretty sure you meant tie vice lynch.

shit... yah you are right. Thats what i get for watching the game and playing werewolf at the same time

[hoopsguy]

Thats what I have also. Here is the voting path of the day:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)
(190) Kwhit votes BrianD (1)
(235) Anxiety votes St.Cronin (2)
(246) Lathum UNVOTES Hoopsguy (1) ***
(246) Lathum votes St.cronin (3)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES BrianD (0) ***
(278) Kwhit votes Stcronin (4)
(279) Path votes Stcronin (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(290) Lonestargirl votes St.cronin (6)
(308) Glengoyne votes Bulletsponge (9)
(313) Chief Rum votes Lathum (1)
(316) St.Cronin UNVOTES Hoopsguy (0) ***
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(318) Chief Rum UNVOTES Lathum (0) ***
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

Fouts, KWhit was the only person who unvoted from someone and did not end up on Bulletsponge. I think they could have chased KWhit here without BrianD having to be a zombie - he may very well be one, but I don't think he has to be for their play to make sense.

[Glengoyne]

Geez, nice long post to say you are throwing your vote out the window. Thanks Glen.

I forgot to really address Lathum in my long post. A vote for Lathum made a three way tie, so that wouldn't have been very helpful. I'm going to have to go back and see what Hoops and Tyrith had to say about him, as there was a little something there.

[st.cronin]

I like GlenGoyne's vote.

[Alan T]

I forgot to really address Lathum in my long post. A vote for Lathum made a three way tie, so that wouldn't have been very helpful. I'm going to have to go back and see what Hoops and Tyrith had to say about him, as there was a little something there.

Well good news! THats no longer the case :)

(5) Lathum - path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665), Lonestargirl (698), St. Cronin (714)
(4) St.Cronin - Alan (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(2) Alan T - Spleen (564), Sndvls (658)
(2) BrianD - Fouts (631), Mr.Wednesday (641)
(1) Sndvls - Glengoyne (700)

[Alan T]

I like GlenGoyne's vote.

I dont have a huge problem with it since Sndvls definitly wasn't very honest earlier and he's on my radar. Im not switching to him though today since Im going to stick with my vote.

[st.cronin]

Fouts, KWhit was the only person who unvoted from someone and did not end up on Bulletsponge. I think they could have chased KWhit here without BrianD having to be a zombie - he may very well be one, but I don't think he has to be for their play to make sense.

I agree, and think I would agree even if I weren't one of the players he voted for. It would actually be a dangerous play to go after Kwhit IF Brian was a zombie.

[LoneStarGirl]

Is lathum coming back in the next two hours to defend himself?

[Fouts]

If you really think that, then you have to believe that either myself or BrianD (or both) is a zombie. Not umbrella, but a zombie.

Yes, hence my vote. I am not 99.9% sure like Alan. I am also suspicious of people who knock down this theory without really discussing it.

[Alan T]

I agree, and think I would agree even if I weren't one of the players he voted for. It would actually be a dangerous play to go after Kwhit IF Brian was a zombie.

That was my comment this morning when I dismissed this idea when I originally brought it up. its possible, but doubtful in my mind.

[Tyrith]

That was my comment this morning when I dismissed this idea when I originally brought it up. its possible, but doubtful in my mind.

Fairly certain I said that too. If Brian is a zombie they would have been much better off letting his vote die in the day one muck than letting us talk about it all day today.

[Glengoyne]

I agree that SnDvls is acting suspicious, but what chance is that 4 other people will jump on that vote this late in the day?

Change your vote, and then he'll practically be leading the pack. I don't have a solid reason to vote for Cronin, Lathum, or Alan. snDvls drops by makes a clearly misleading statement when the trend is to vote for Alan, and then departs.

[Glengoyne]

Well okay he wouldn't be leading the pack, as there seems to be a trend to Lathum now.

[Alan T]

Going to do dinner stuff. back in about an hour or so hopefully (with about 30 min to spare till deadline)

[Fouts]

Change your vote, and then he'll practically be leading the pack. I don't have a solid reason to vote for Cronin, Lathum, or Alan. snDvls drops by makes a clearly misleading statement when the trend is to vote for Alan, and then departs.

Ok, I'll take a shot. I'll keep my eye on BrianD though.

unvote BrianD

vote SnDvls

[Glengoyne]

Ok, I'll take a shot. I'll keep my eye on BrianD though.

unvote BrianD

vote SnDvls

That's what I'm talking about. OK, I gotta run home. I'll be back well before the deadline.

[Fouts]

That's what I'm talking about. OK, I gotta run home. I'll be back well before the deadline.

I'm not sure why you are getting excited about my vote move. SnDvls only has 2 votes.

[Fouts]

My thoughts on the candidates;

Lathum - no clue on his faction, others seem to be sure about his guilt
St.Cronin - more likely to be bad between the top 3, but if he's good, then Alan will lead the mob after me
Alan T - playing the crazy villager I think
BrianD - I put a lot of pressure on him, and not much response
Sndvls - Acting suspicious, but who knows

[saldana]

vote sndvls

i still not sure about either lathum or alan, but i find sndvls to always be an excellent wolf...i am ok with this vote.

[BrianD]

I'm still not sure where the suspicion of me is coming from. I didn't kill KWhit and I didn't cause his death. For me to do so after he voted for me would be the dumbest move ever.

So are people now thinking that the PC voted for a STARS member because only STARS members were on the block yesterday? I'm still not sure I agree with that.

[BrianD]

BrianD - I put a lot of pressure on him, and not much response


I just came back and saw the pressure...

[Tyrith]

I didn't see anything out of sndvls that I'm not willing to attribute to sndvls being sndvls for today, but he's a very good bad guy and he's on the radar.

The 5-4-3-2 vote we have going now scares me.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #747:

(5) Lathum - Path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665), LSG (696), Cronin (714)
(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(3) SnDvls - Glen (700), Fouts (741), Saldana (745)
(2) AlanT - Spleen (564), SnDvls (658)
(1) BrianD - MrW (641)

No Votes: NTN, Chief Rum

[Alan T]

Just caught up. Looks like I didn't miss much. I'll say the same thing as yesterday though.. anyone responsible for a last minute tie will get my vote tommorrow.