Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I agree that they have to think hard about it. But we quickly losing the numbers game with all the STARS rank-and-file going down.

Down to 13 players now, will likely lose 1-2 tonight between conversions and/or kills, and we are probably going to hash through the obvious candidates tomorrow (me and Alan atop the list).

If the Sniper feels that I'm more likely to be bad than Alan, they should take me out. If I was the sniper it would be a stone cold, lead pipe lock that I would shoot Alan. But whoever has that role gets to make whatever they feel is the best decision - including inaction as a possibility.

[Mr. Wednesday]

it was my calling him out about fouts that people used to lynch him. It might not show in the votes, but it was there if you go back to read the conversation of the day.

Alan, I don't see it. Prove me wrong.


This is what I've got:
On page 21 (starting at 5:01 pm with post 601), Lathum hasn't really drawn any attention yet. You don't mention him in your posts -- you're still pushing st.cronin.

On page 22 things get rolling...
631: Fouts votes BrianD
632-639: Mostly about hoops and his scanning thing
640: Hoops gets on Lathum about his day 1 behavior
641: I vote BrianD... I wanted to vote for Lathum but didn't want to start things (I have no proof for this assertion).
642: path12 casts the first vote for Lathum
643: hoops casts the second vote for Lathum
651: Alan's first post of the page, no analysis to speak of, mild endorsement of Lathum as a third candidate as Fouts and I are encouraged not to vote for BrianD.
652: Alan's reply to Glengoyne that doesn't mention any other player
653-655: Lathum and hoops trade arguments
658: SnDvls votes Alan
659-660: Alan and Fouts trade replies, with only st.cronin and BrianD mentioned

On to page 23...
661-664: Alan and Fouts, no mention of any other live player besides st.cronin
665: Tyrith votes Lathum
666: Alan still pressing st.cronin with Fouts, says he's been discussing alternative candidates like Lathum and BrianD (with no further argument)
667: Alan comments on the driveby by Sndvls, no other player mentioned
671: Alan to Tyrith claiming to be open to other alternatives, nothing specific mentioned.
673: Alan to Tyrith, stop being so sensitive
675: Alan, generic strategy
678-679: Alan, justification of bullet and cronin, no other player mentioned
680: Hoops notes that it's 4-4-3, Alan-st.cronin-Lathum.
682: Alan again, discussion with Tyrith involving st.cronin only
685: Alan, thinks between Fouts and st.c give 93% odds and 99.9% certain st.c is bad, no other player mentioned
686: st.cronin offers an odd comment about hoops and Lathum
687, 689: Alan, bland post not mentioning anyone

At this point, we're up to 8:30, and on to page 24...
691-692: Alan and hoops, brief discussion of a mathematical scenario with no specific players mentioned
693: Alan reply to st.c, generic strategy
696/698: LSG unvotes Alan and votes Lathum
697: Hoops tries to make sense of st.c's comment in 686
700: Glengoyne votes Sndvls
701: Alan reply to LSG, "at least I've been amusing"
705: Alan recaps votes, "a tie is bad."
710: Alan strategy discussion with hoops only mentioning Bullet and the chief
712: Alan reply to LSG, "might be reading this wrong"
713: Alan reply to Fouts, "lynching me is better than a tie."
714: st.cronin votes Lathum
(if you're doing the math at home, that's five votes on Lathum without Alan wavering from his push to lynch someone else)
716: Alan, "I don't have an important role, if a STARS has to die it should be me."
718: Fouts, why KWhit?
719: hoops, don't think first two votes on bullet bear on cronin's identity

We're up to 9 pm, and on to page 25...
721: Fouts, Sndvls is acting suspicious but it's too late to pile on him
723: Alan, too many conversations at once, now says he thinks cronin is bad not because of the odds but because of day 1 behavior
731: Alan, vote recap, Glengoyne doesn't need to worry about a tie because we're not tied!
732: Alan, "I don't have a huge problem with [Glengoyne's vote for Sndvls] since Sndvls definitly wasn't very honest earlier and he's on my radar. Im not switching to him though today since Im going to stick with my vote."
736: Alan, replying to st.cronin's post, chief strategy involving KWhit
740: Alan, off to dinner
741: Fouts, unvote BrianD and vote Sndvls
744: Fouts offers his ideas on candidates, seems to favor st.cronin out of the top three, negative comments about BrianD and Sndvls [ed: Interesting post that we might want to come back to.]
746: BrianD, why suspcious of me?
750: Alan, I've caught up

It's 10 pm, we're moving on to page 26, and Alan still hasn't come out against Lathum.
751: Fouts, what do we learn from Lathum's lynch?
752: Lathum, ask me questions
753: ntndeacon, I pulled Fouts name out of my ass
754: Alan, reply to Fouts saying we learn about Fouts from Lathum's lynch, if he's bad maybe we should go after Fouts next, but relatively noncommittal
755: Alan, crack about 753
756: Fouts, 752 is a classic wolf post
757: Tyrith, we need to kill one of Lathum, Alan, st.c, some mild discussion
760: Fouts: 754 is saying that if Lathum's bad, I'm bad, if Lathum's good, I still might be bad.
762: Alan, smiling about 760
763: Alan, opposite take on st.c from hoops, certain that he's bad
765: hoops, if Alan and I are on the same team then one will have an "I told you so" for the other
766: Lathum, 756 will make people suspicious of Fouts, go ahead with questions
768: Alan, "Just a question to the lathum voters.. while I don't have a huge problem with you going after Lathum, just curious what we are going to do from here?"
772: Brian, reminds us of st.cronin's "you all suck, I'm going home" self-vote
773: Tyrith, I prefer Sndvls tomorrow
774: Alan, why doesn't Tyrith go after him today; tomorrow, if Lathum is bad, I go after Fouts [ed: or not, he went after st.c again anyway]
775: Alan, it's going as I predicted, early rush on st.c then a surge to tie it up
778: Tyrith, replying to 774, not voting for Sndvls because on of the troika need to die today
779: Alan, recapping the vote behavior of 775
780: Lathum, st.cronin has switched his vote twice to create ties

It's 10:30 pm, and we're moving to page 27.
781: hoops, not sure what data to take from Lathum lynch either way
783: Alan, oops, vote blowup took two hrs and not just one
786: Alan, lengthier voting recap
787: Tyrith, replay to 780, but it was with hour remaining, you're desperate
788: Alan, commenting on CR
790-791: Alan, commenting on Tyrith and LSG voting together, and CR and ntn need to vote
793: Alan, post count
795: Lathum, reply to 787, but he switches to the popular candidate
797: Alan, we've had a guest around all day
799: Chief Rum, don't like Lathum as a bad guy, vote st.cronin
803: Chief Rum, why is a tie bad?
804: Alan, if your vote creates a tie, I vote for you tomorrow
806: Alan, tie means no lynch
810: Chief Rum, unvote st.cronin, vote Lathum

10:50 pm, time for page 28...
811: Alan, best let ntn make his vote or you both could inadvertently tie
812: Chief Rum, Lathum is not clear in my mind, don't think he's a zombie, but we need a lynch
815: Alan, we get to see if anyone tries to save Lathum at the deadline
816: Chief Rum, voted Lathum because someone has to die
817: ntndeacon, vote Lathum
818: Alan, don't by Lathum's last-second desperation play [ed: Lathum's elided]
820: CR, don't know what to make of Sndvls right now
826: Alan, won't punish CR for the vote

** Deadline **

If the supposed calling out did occur earlier in the day, it was not IMO proximate enough to the votes to have influenced them. At best, Alan has delusions of grandeur; at worst, he's Umbrella trying to distance himself from the push of st.cronin over Lathum.

I'm backing the second, personally, and only for this reason (I do not have any role-based insight).

This is not an argument to lynch Alan tomorrow... in fact, I think things are getting tight enough that we can't afford to worry about Umbrella, we need a zombie.

[hoopsguy]

Alan will argue that he called out Lathum early in Day 2. But he never acted on it with votes and he questioned people who were voting for Lathum (what will you learn from it? we learn from Cronin, etc).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Fouts, I agree that they have to think hard about it. But we quickly losing the numbers game with all the STARS rank-and-file going down.

Down to 13 players now, will likely lose 1-2 tonight between conversions and/or kills, and we are probably going to hash through the obvious candidates tomorrow (me and Alan atop the list).

If the Sniper feels that I'm more likely to be bad than Alan, they should take me out. If I was the sniper it would be a stone cold, lead pipe lock that I would shoot Alan. But whoever has that role gets to make whatever they feel is the best decision - including inaction as a possibility.

I'm leaning toward Alan being Umbrella, and here's why:
* Completely noncommittal about lynching Lathum, continued to strongly push st.cronin
* Trying today to make it seem like lynching Lathum was his idea all along

Do you have a good argument for him being a zombie?

[Fouts]

Nice post Mr. W. Some interesting stuff in there.

[hoopsguy]

No, I do not have a strong reason to believe he is more likely Zombie than Umbrella. And, rereading the rule, that person has to kill themselves if they shoot Umbrella as well. Crap, thought they just had to avoid STARS.

[LoneStarGirl]

Ugh this is so frusterating. It seems alanT and hoop said Cronin is bad and 5 people said okay, if alan and hoop said it then it must be true... I agree that Alan isn't a zombie, and hoops probably isn't either, so the people who voted after them is who we should look at.

[BrianD]

Do we know what the weekend schedule is?

[LoneStarGirl]

Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151), Rum (1199), MrW (1216)

Path was the first person to vote for lathum, so that pretty much clears him... and MrW and Rum have been flying UTR for the most part ( i know i have too, dont yell at me ) so i am putting my suspicion onto them

[BrianD]

Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151), Rum (1199), MrW (1216)

Path was the first person to vote for lathum, so that pretty much clears him... and MrW and Rum have been flying UTR for the most part ( i know i have too, dont yell at me ) so i am putting my suspicion onto them

How does Path voting first clear him? It means he probably isn't Umbrella, but it doesn't mean he isn't a zombie.

[Mr. Wednesday]

No, I do not have a strong reason to believe he is more likely Zombie than Umbrella. And, rereading the rule, that person has to kill themselves if they shoot Umbrella as well. Crap, thought they just had to avoid STARS.
Yeah, that already came up once before.

As I've already said, I think our numbers are getting short enough that we can't stick with any non-STARS is a good non-STARS any longer.

[Fouts]

Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151), Rum (1199), MrW (1216)

Path was the first person to vote for lathum, so that pretty much clears him... and MrW and Rum have been flying UTR for the most part ( i know i have too, dont yell at me ) so i am putting my suspicion onto them

Nope, path could still be a zombie. That don't care which faction they kill.

[Fouts]

Yeah, that already came up once before.

As I've already said, I think our numbers are getting short enough that we can't stick with any non-STARS is a good non-STARS any longer.

What are you saying here? Killing STARS or Umbrella helps the zombies.

[hoopsguy]

LSG, lets take a look at the voting records for the people who voted on Cronin today.

Alan - Bullet, Cronin, Cronin (3 votes for STARS)
Hoops - Bullet, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)
Path - Cronin, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)
BrianD - Cronin, Cronin, Cronin (3 votes for STARS)
Spleen - Bullet, AlanT, Cronin (2 votes for STARS)
Chief - Bullet, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)*
MrW - Bullet, BrianD, Cronin (2 votes for STARS)

* - Chief initially voted for Cronin, then changed it to Lathum when realizing it would create a tie

[hoopsguy]

When Path cast the first vote the total was 4-4 between Alan and Cronin, correct?

[LoneStarGirl]

I didn't think about Path and the umbrella thing, you guys are right. I just think everybody is going to jump on Alan again and its going to cause an easy way for zombies and umbrellas alike to jump on the bandwagon and avoid suspicion again.

[hoopsguy]

Just trying to think this through - you have Alan (Umbrella/Zombie) against Cronin (STARS) - if Alan was a Zombie would they think about bringing a new candidate into the discussion or just push on Cronin? Doesn't seem like much value-add to bring another Umbrella in ...

I think the only way they bring a new candidate in is if they do not think that Alan can win a showdown against Cronin, so they have to change the conversation. They have Tyrith pegged on a role (they killed him last night) and I'm stating that I won't kill Cronin ...

Need to go check post order here, see if I'm remembering events from yesterday afternoon in the right order.

[Mr. Wednesday]

What are you saying here? Killing STARS or Umbrella helps the zombies.

No, I'm saying that the STARS numbers are getting low enough that I don't think we (STARS) can afford to lump Umbrella and zombies together any more.

[BrianD]

I'm wondering if Alan really thought Cronin was a zombie, or if it was a play to take out another STARS member. It seems like an odd strategy to ask to be lynched if he is wrong...knowing that he is wrong. Of course he may be banking on the fact that people won't lynch him thinking he wouldn't ask to be lynched if he was bad.....if that made any sense.

[hoopsguy]

Post #625 (4:44 PM CST) - Path asks if anyone believes both Cronin and AlanT are STARS?

There is a lot of conversation after this about looking for a 3rd candidate - MrW, Tyrith, me, Fouts

Post #635 (5:05 PM) - Path asks Saldana if he still feels that Cronin is a good guy, quoting something he said earlier

Post #640 (5:19 PM) - I challenge Lathum

Post #641 (5:22 PM) - MrW votes for BrianD

Post #642 (5:23 PM) - Path fires a vote for Lathum

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, looking at that history, path was itching for someone else to vote for. I was too. I had some reasons for being interested in Lathum, in fact, but was hoping someone else would kick it off (as path did, but after I left, unfortunately).

Assuming, arguendo, that Alan's Umbrella...
...then path's play would be risky for a zombie from a trust point of view, because he could be moving votes off of an Umbrella player onto a STARS. As is, the vote is a win/win for the zombies.

Assuming, arguendo, that Alan is a zombie...
...then path's play isn't quite as risky for a zombie, in the sense that he's only moving votes off of one unknown and not two, but he's still got a perfectly good alternative to Alan that's being pushed hard, and probably could have carried (remember, Chief Rum initially voted for st.cronin). One possibility, though... concern about the large bloc of unconvinced voters who might go onto BrianD?

[Fouts]

I'm having an easier time placing players into the Umbrella faction. I can't figure out who the zombies are though. Lets hope somebody sees something tonight. The zombies have been way too lucky.

[hoopsguy]

That is the evolution of Path's vote for Lathum. Now lets look at the conversation taking place around it with the vote tied 4-4 that might worry Alan (and his teammates) about their ability to win the race yesterday with Cronin.

Post #602 (4:11 PM) Tyrith ties the vote at 4-4 by unvoting Fouts and voting for Alan. He has played his hand at this point, indicating he will protect Cronin on this day "I really don't want to kill Cronin"

Post #607 (4:15 PM) Alan is now home, laments the vote swing while he was away

Post #609 (4:21 PM) Mr W does not want a Cronin/Alan face-off (non-commital on where he would go here)

Post #610 (4:23 PM) SnDvls feels same way based on non-vote

Post #612 (4:23 PM) Alan says he is fine with another candidate

Post #616 (4:25 PM) LSG doesn't want Cronin/Alan either "but I can't shake the feeling that Alan is playing us ... probably sympathizing with Cronin"

Post #617 (4:27 PM) Tyrith asks how STARS can know to save Alan? Says he is willing to try Fouts again

Post #618 (4:30 PM) Cronin asks if people have thoughts on Lathum, Brian, or me

Post #620 (4:36 PM) Tyrith sounds off on the 3 candidates Cronin listed

Post #621 (4:37 PM) MrW lists pretty much everyone in the game besides Alan and Cronin

Post #625 (4:44 PM) Path asks if anyone believes both Cronin and AlanT are STARS?

[Alan T]

Welp, going to bed. I have my girls this weekend so probably won't be on a ton tommorrow and don't really have any defense.

Whatever its worth, I haven't lied about anything this game. haven't lied about my role, my thoughts, my feelings. I spent the entire first three days systematically eliminating who I thought was the police chief based on votes and their reaction to me.

We talked about usefulness of the police chief and how it would play at the start of the game, so I dropped the hints on how I thought it would be played and tried to give a big enough clue that I was watching for them and would try to be their mouthpiece for as long as I could without them dying.

After day 1 there was actually 12 people I thought could be the chief, but by the time day 2 was mostly over, it was down to either 3 - 4 or so as far as I could tell. By some point today there was only one person who I felt that could be the chief based on their reactions to me and interaction with me (knowing full well that i was good).

So I went with what I felt they were handing me in the way of who to push to vote for. I pushed strongly for it with the thought that on alot of these votes its a 50-50 chance if a stars person pushed the vote. If someone from umbrella or the zombies pushed the vote it obviously removed their 2 - 5 team mates and made it a much worse proposition. So I felt it necessary for the STARS to drive the vote and drive it hard.

Evidentally I was wrong about the police chief, and it cost me a huge err in judgement, and cost us a day. I am starting to think the police chief is a bogus role that Chubby just put into the roles as a possible role but its not actually in the game. If the Chief is actually in the game, then they either have voted for alot of good guys so far, or they publically came out and said they distrusted me (something I would not think they would do to fellow Stars members).

Like I've always said, there is nothing 100% in Werewolf, and I guess I remember that tonight. I'm not going to push any more agendas and will continue to place my vote for who I feel is the best stars vote the remainder of my time in this game (whether its one more day or 10). Im not going to self vote tommorrow, but I am not going to put alot more effort in defending myself or my actions. I told you all if I was wrong, you can lynch me and so be it.

This is not a defense post, this is simply an explanation of my actions as my STARS team mates at least deserve that much. I still have my suspicions of people such as Hoops, Fouts, Mr. Wednesday, etc. But at this point I'll just keep them to myself as it likely will push the rest of you further away from them rather than to look at them closer.

Once again sorry. I'll check in at some point after night actions are run to see how its going and then just to figure out where to vote (even if I'm the only one not voting for myself tommorrow)

[LoneStarGirl]

Hoops why are you pushing for Path so much all of the sudden?

With that being asked, im gonig to bed.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, it was 4-4 with Cronin vs Alan at the time.

If you take the intuitive leap here on Path, that he and Alan are on the same team, then they are zombies. They would not be Umbrella and bring forward another Umbrella candidate in Lathum.

Now, why wouldn't they push on Cronin - seems easier than getting votes for another person, right? Well, we still had 9 undecided at the time. Tyrith, who had just moved his vote, was pretty vocal about backing Cronin. What happens if he comes out and role reveals to keep us from wasting two straight days at the start of the game? Game over for Alan.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Post #621 (4:37 PM) MrW lists pretty much everyone in the game besides Alan and Cronin
It should have been everyone besides those two. I was evaluating what we could take out of the day 1 vote for everyone else.

As it turns out, I was right about st.cronin, possibly wrong about Alan.

[Alan T]

I know it will sound crazy, but I think Hoops played me. He knew Cronin wasn't a zombie and let me create my own noose. He now is using this opportunity to set up the steps for the path that you will need to take to assure them the victory by wasting 2-3 more days after I caused us to waste today.

Right now you probably pretty much have to lynch me tommorrow since I deserve it, but after I turn up good, if I had to choose, I think hoops is playing puppetmaster right now.

[hoopsguy]

LSG, I'm trying to play out a scenario in my mind here on Path. I would prefer to do it in public as we have quite a bit of time before night actions go in. He should have an opportunity to respond, the sniper should have an opportunity to evaluate this when making a decision.

Keeping my theory close to the vest did not help at all today. Perhaps public discussion of these theories will work a little better ...

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I wish I was good enough to make the move you are giving me credit for in this case. You absolutely know that you would hear about it in post-game, over AIM, etc.

Alas, I'm not that good. And I strongly suspect I'm going to have to listen to you give me the business for following you today about two seconds after you are dead in this game.

[Alan T]

Alan, I wish I was good enough to make the move you are giving me credit for in this case. You absolutely know that you would hear about it in post-game, over AIM, etc.

Alas, I'm not that good. And I strongly suspect I'm going to have to listen to you give me the business for following you today about two seconds after you are dead in this game.

Nope, I actually feel like a fool right now. I got over confident and felt like I could see everything unfolding in front of me like an NFL quarterback.

I really was suprised that no one else could see what I did after we all had talked about it at the beginning what the police chief would do.

I guess after the game I'll mainly be interested in hearing from the police chief on why they did what they did, but I guess the good side is that I dont have an important role, so its not like losing the bodyguard

[Alan T]

Alan, I wish I was good enough to make the move you are giving me credit for in this case. You absolutely know that you would hear about it in post-game, over AIM, etc.

Alas, I'm not that good. And I strongly suspect I'm going to have to listen to you give me the business for following you today about two seconds after you are dead in this game.

And I guess it would be ironic if I am really wrong about you and you actually are on my side for once, that of all games its a moment like this. Ahh well

[hoopsguy]

So who were you following that you thought was the Chief, since they clearly were not the Chief? I think I know who you are going to say, but ... how much do you suspect this mystery guest right now?

Also, I'm not sure how you say that you were following anyone on Day 2 when you came out voting for Cronin within the first 30 minutes of the day. And never moved it.

[Glengoyne]

LSG, lets take a look at the voting records for the people who voted on Cronin today.

Alan - Bullet, Cronin, Cronin (3 votes for STARS)
Hoops - Bullet, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)
Path - Cronin, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)
BrianD - Cronin, Cronin, Cronin (3 votes for STARS)
Spleen - Bullet, AlanT, Cronin (2 votes for STARS)
Chief - Bullet, Lathum, Cronin (2 votes for STARS, 1 vote for Umbrella)*
MrW - Bullet, BrianD, Cronin (2 votes for STARS)

* - Chief initially voted for Cronin, then changed it to Lathum when realizing it would create a tie

I'm trying to put things into perspective to see what we have here.

Umbrella Player: Knows team of four or so baddies. everyone else is unknown.
STARS Player: Other than chief, only knows self and a sort of CoT.
Zombie Player: Knows partner or no more than two teammates.

-a vote for an Umbrella casts some doubt on that player being Umbrella. STARS and Zombies are more likely.
-a vote for a STARS player means nothing, except for regard to the chief. An Umbrella knows the target isn't Umbrella, a zombie knows the target isn't a zombie.
-a vote for a zombie player casts some doubt on that player being a zombie. STARS and Umbrella are more likely.

I think this is helpful. It makes for some targets other than Alan.
Not that I think Alan gets a free pass, but we do need to focus on numbers here, so he may be less of a priority.

[hoopsguy]

OK, going to bed for the night - enough stewing about WW for one evening.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Simple vote counts can be very hazardous to use, all the moreso because the bad guys like to throw votes onto their teammates when they can do so without attracting suspicion. The most reliable use of votes is in context.

[Alan T]

So who were you following that you thought was the Chief, since they clearly were not the Chief? I think I know who you are going to say, but ... how much do you suspect this mystery guest right now?

Also, I'm not sure how you say that you were following anyone on Day 2 when you came out voting for Cronin within the first 30 minutes of the day. And never moved it.

Well since I was wrong, I guess it doesnt hurt to say.. but the last person I had to rule out being possible chief was Anxiety, so thought for sure he was the chief, and his re-affirmation of me today was the hint that Im on the right track and keep at it.

Before that I had it between Ntndeacon and Anxiety, and before that I had a few I think path, fouts (believe it or not when I pressed him I still hadnt ruled him out as of that time), and uhh I think Lonestargirl.

I cant remember any further back than that. But evidentally I was wrong, and knowing my luck all of those people are bad.

[Glengoyne]

I know it will sound crazy, but I think Hoops played me. He knew Cronin wasn't a zombie and let me create my own noose. He now is using this opportunity to set up the steps for the path that you will need to take to assure them the victory by wasting 2-3 more days after I caused us to waste today.

Right now you probably pretty much have to lynch me tommorrow since I deserve it, but after I turn up good, if I had to choose, I think hoops is playing puppetmaster right now.

I thought you were the one moving him? I'm not sure I know which one of you I want to string up. I'm torn.

[Glengoyne]

Simple vote counts can be very hazardous to use, all the moreso because the bad guys like to throw votes onto their teammates when they can do so without attracting suspicion. The most reliable use of votes is in context.

BTW, your post above was a nice piece of work. I think targets are good to have, and tomorrow we will have to piece together the ones worth moving on.

[Glengoyne]

Shit we have until tomorrow NIGHT to see what happens tonight. Grrr. Well more night discussion tomorrow. Somehow I like Day discussion more, it seems more fruitful. Maybe it is the pressure of the lynch. We will also have to be careful not to telegraph information.

[Mr. Wednesday]

BTW, your post above was a nice piece of work. I think targets are good to have, and tomorrow we will have to piece together the ones worth moving on.
Thanks, keep in mind that I was mainly focusing on whether Alan ever advocated lynching Lathum (and if so, to what degree), and while I kept in a bunch of stuff that gives the flavor of other conversations that were ongoing, it's not exhaustive, I wasn't as careful about keeping other elements intact.

[Abe Sargent]

I'm barely conscious of what is going on and I haven;t even read the last four pages. I don;t know who got killed or what the result is, but I'm feeling awful. I can;t give this game the attention it deserves, so I have pmd chubby to find someone to replace me. Sorry.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, are you going to have some time to dive into this game over the weekend? Would love to have you a little more involved in the conversation, time permitting.

End of a long day for me, as I picked up a night shift. Fortunately, it was a late enough shift I was able to go home and put a vote in, but not much more than that.

I am distraught about the st cronin lynch, because my basis for voting for him, other than gut instinct, was Alan's theory. Well, Alan's theory of cronin versus Fouts was based on neither being a member of STARS, and, whoops, cronin is a member of STARS. So either the theory is a goner (with some flaw we failed to eliminate) and/or Alan is a baddie all along who was trying to mislead us into killing a member of STARS.

The latter seems unlikely to me, as he would have to find a logical theory with some evidence to back this up, and he did. It seems to be too over the top of a play top make if you're bad. Still, it's safe to say we're somewhat back to square one from the debunking of Alan's theory.

I will have to take a closer look at voting records, and see if I can recognize some patterns that can help us identify a zombie. The records should be more consistent up to today--there are no possible conversions until tonight.

I should be more available this weekend, although of course the game will be moving in slo-mo.

[st.cronin]

Shouldn't that be a swimsuit poster of Tom Brady? ;)

He is quite dreamy.

[st.cronin]

I will have some meta-game comments after game is over, but for now I will just say that there is a combination of really clever villains and really foolish villagers playing. Ah, well, it was fun while it lasted.

[path12]

You mean people talk about FOF here? I am shocked! I am shocked and appalled! :D

I'm still waiting for my copy of the new FM to arrive. How many games can one man play?

[path12]

hoops, maybe. I think Alan's Umbrella, and right now we need to be worrying about zombies, not Umbrella.

After this result, I think he has to be.

[hoopsguy]

Path, I'm not Zombie or Umbrella. But I am awfully frustrated by how yesterday went. And it is impossible for me to believe right now that Alan was a blind/stubborn STARS player - I would give a less experienced player credit for being that, but if Alan really played it this way he should be slapped.

So, the question for me boils down to what faction Alan is with, which is where I'm now looking at you. If you want to try and come up with alternate scenarios today I'm all for it.

[hoopsguy]

I'll take it another step further - if Alan and I are both STARS, and we are killed in back-to-back days we are going to lose the game.

[path12]

When Path cast the first vote the total was 4-4 between Alan and Cronin, correct?

Are you talking about the Lathum vote day 2? Yes, as I said at the time I was looking for an alternative for my vote.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I think I've put that scenario out in full on the board. But have not seen much comment on it by others as of this time.

[path12]

MrW, it was 4-4 with Cronin vs Alan at the time.

If you take the intuitive leap here on Path, that he and Alan are on the same team, then they are zombies. They would not be Umbrella and bring forward another Umbrella candidate in Lathum.

Wow hoops, that's quite a leap. Especially when there were multiple people other than me saying that they weren't happy with the alternatives at the time, hence the BrianD votes. And the fact that you followed me onto Lathum the very next post. Does that mean you're a zombie also?

[path12]

Path, I'm not Zombie or Umbrella.

Hoops, I wasn't referencing you in that post. I was talking about Mr W's read on Alan.

[hoopsguy]

We can come at this from another direction - why were you looking for an alternate candidate besides Alan and Cronin?

My thoughts on Day 2 regarding Tyrith having viewed Cronin are pretty well documented - I'll pull them up again if anyone is disputing this statement. So that is why I was looking for something else - because one of the two people in the showdown I thought to be good (changed on this mid-way through Day 3, obviously a bad idea) and the other I didn't know about. In that scenario, I was looking for a 3rd candidate. How about you?

[path12]

LSG, I'm trying to play out a scenario in my mind here on Path. I would prefer to do it in public as we have quite a bit of time before night actions go in. He should have an opportunity to respond, the sniper should have an opportunity to evaluate this when making a decision.

Wow again. I'm fine with whoever wants to look at my voting record, it's out in the open and I think I've been pretty specific about why I voted as I did each day.

I don't think I appreciate you calling the snipers attention my way though. I don't see what I've done to warrant that.

[hoopsguy]

Path, I'm just trying to understand why people wanted someone besides Cronin or Alan in the runoff. If they are both STARS, then only the Chief should have reason to avoid this showdown. Umbrella and Zombies are happy to fire votes on guys not in their faction. Other STARS have no info to work with at this point.

But Tyrith did have a role that gave him info (strongly believe on Cronin) - his posts that day were crystal clear. And eventually I saw that on Day 2, so I had reason to look for an alternate candidate.

Are you going to argue that you felt both were bad options? That you saw what Tyrith was posting? What was the reason you were looking for an alternate?

[hoopsguy]

As far as the Sniper goes, he gets to evaluate my arguments as well. If he believes I'm Zombie he should blow me away.

[hoopsguy]

You can not have been the Police Chief, based on your 3rd vote for Cronin yesterday. People can argue about the Chief hiding a vote on Day 1, but not yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, are you willing to comment on the order that night actions are processed?

[ntndeacon]

hoops, we can do more than argue the chief hiding a vote on day one. we now know that both of our 2 main candidates for lynching were Stars. It is a pretty good bet that the chief hid thier vote on day one.

[hoopsguy]

If Internal Affairs has scanned either Alan or me up to this point, I would recommend taking a look at the other one tonight. If he is telling the truth we need to have that information so we don't destroy our chances of winning tomorrow by going after a bad lynch. I know what faction I'll come up with, but I don't know about Alan.

Then publish that information tomorrow so we can start working on a legitimate circle of trust for the rest of the way. Because right now is a mess, and I'm stunned by how bad it is for Night 3 in a game with several information roles.

[path12]

Path, I'm just trying to understand why people wanted someone besides Cronin or Alan in the runoff. If they are both STARS, then only the Chief should have reason to avoid this showdown. Umbrella and Zombies are happy to fire votes on guys not in their faction. Other STARS have no info to work with at this point.

But Tyrith did have a role that gave him info (strongly believe on Cronin) - his posts that day were crystal clear. And eventually I saw that on Day 2, so I had reason to look for an alternate candidate.

Are you going to argue that you felt both were bad options? That you saw what Tyrith was posting? What was the reason you were looking for an alternate?

Well, I can't speak for people as a whole, but I wanted someone besides Alan and Cronin in the runoff day 2 because I was getting the vibe at that time that they were likely both good.

Remember, my day 1 vote for Cronin wasn't out of confidence he was bad, but to tie up the vote between he and Bullet with quite awhile to go to try and get some leads on how others voted after that. You know that I often like to cause a tie early in the day to try and flush out some information.

For day 2, I just really had Alan pegged as a villager -- he was taking the lead in questioning and trying to put a hypothesis together, and it was enough to make me think that I would rather have him and his ideas around than not. Then you had Cronin getting all pissed (which even though it has been used as a ploy, I think more often indicates a frustrated villager), which in combination with some of the conversation around there (Tyrith for example) made me not thrilled with voting his way either.

So I thought we had a stars/stars candidate, and started looking for a third one. I didn't see the reasoning on BrianD, but thought there were some valid concerns about Lathum and decided to try and start there and see if anyone would follow. And am glad I did.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, I agree that he hid the vote on Day 1. I do not agree that the Chief hid his vote on Days 2 or 3.

[path12]

You can not have been the Police Chief, based on your 3rd vote for Cronin yesterday. People can argue about the Chief hiding a vote on Day 1, but not yesterday.

I've never claimed to be the Chief. I am not the Chief.

[ntndeacon]

NTN, I agree that he hid the vote on Day 1. I do not agree that the Chief hid his vote on Days 2 or 3.

agreed

[hoopsguy]

Right, I'm just trying to figure out how someone on STARS could "know" that Alan/Cronin would be a bad showdown. If you have two guys that you are unsure of, why not see how it shakes out? If you have one STARS and one other faction, well the people in other faction will want to move it.

Tyrith knew, I picked up on it eventually.
Police Chief knew.
Internal Affairs may have picked one of those two to view, but if they had viewed Cronin in first two days they didn't make their presence felt yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

The person who defended Cronin hardest yesterday was me, for the first few hours. No one came out defending him after I flip-flopped (I waited for everyone to check in before doing so), although several other people put votes out for alternate candidates.

[path12]

Right, I'm just trying to figure out how someone on STARS could "know" that Alan/Cronin would be a bad showdown. If you have two guys that you are unsure of, why not see how it shakes out? If you have one STARS and one other faction, well the people in other faction will want to move it.

Tyrith knew, I picked up on it eventually.
Police Chief knew.
Internal Affairs may have picked one of those two to view, but if they had viewed Cronin in first two days they didn't make their presence felt yesterday.

There can be so much value in having discussion drivers around that sometimes you feel like you need to have a higher level of distrust than normal before lynching.

Cronin and Alan are discussion drivers. As are you. You guys get more benefit of the doubt before getting a vote. Of course the tradeoff is that you're involved in the vote more often.....

Besides, we'd lost nothing but stars to that point. If you feel like there's a good chance you've got two more in a runoff, you look for a bad guy. Sometimes it's just as simple as that.

[hoopsguy]

Path, if you think my theory is full of crap come back with an alternate one. We need to start finding Zombies before we get run out of the game.

I think my plan to start working on the CoT is sound - that doesn't involve you at all. Any comments on it, or better ways to do this?

[ntndeacon]

I agree that it isn't a question of knowing. If you suspect it is 2 Stars you would probably move elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

Unless you feel like you have a "known" to introduce. Of course, there are only a couple of roles on STARS that could have a "known" ...


I would argue that it is different if you have a "known good" versus an unknown. That is where Tyrith found himself on Day 2.

[path12]

Path, if you think my theory is full of crap come back with an alternate one. We need to start finding Zombies before we get run out of the game.

I think my plan to start working on the CoT is sound - that doesn't involve you at all. Any comments on it, or better ways to do this?

Hoops, if I had an theory to put out there I would. I'm as lost as anyone after this last lynch. And I'm not going to put something out there just to put it out there.

I think the idea for IAD to scan you or Alan is a good one. I feel positive that at least one of you has been scanned already (I'd be shocked if not). It's kind of sad that we've lost so many members that we're going to need the seer day 4 but we absolutely need to start clearing some folks before we move on -- and we cannot afford any more stars going down.

The main problem I see with it is this: Say that IAD comes out and clears you and Alan. Now there are three known stars and just one bodyguard. The bodyguard can protect only one of you per night and has to jump around, which will cause a nasty little guessing game between them and the bad guys.

Of course, Umbrella would also probably be glad to know that information also.

[hoopsguy]

Agreed on the guessing game, but if Alan comes up a Zombie then we start to get some real info. If he comes up Umbrella it is information, but not as interesting. I'm going to be pretty surprised if he comes up STARS.

[path12]

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

If the 3rd unknown ends up bad it helps quite a bit, wouldn't you say? :)

Seriously though, we might be running up against a style difference here. If I am good, and have two people that my gut is telling me is good in a runoff, and we've lost just good guys to date, and I have a 3rd option I'm willing to listen to my gut in that circumstance.

[ntndeacon]

I think it is clearer now that Alan is not who he says he is. we are running out of vanilla role for him to hide behind.

[hoopsguy]

And if he has already come up STARS then I think the person pretty much has to scan me.

That said, I'll take my chances on surviving Day 4 if he thinks that there is another person worth scanning. I know I'm STARS and I'll try to persuade others that I am even without the scan. But whether I'm in it or not, we need to start to see a meaningful circle of trust emerge. Police Chief cannot reveal, so it is basically on Internal Affairs to do it.

[path12]

Agreed on the guessing game, but if Alan comes up a Zombie then we start to get some real info. If he comes up Umbrella it is information, but not as interesting. I'm going to be pretty surprised if he comes up STARS.

It certainly seems unlikely for him to be stars at this point but I don't rule it out. It's my feeling that if IAD gets anyone as zombie they should be shouting it from the rooftops!

[path12]

And if he has already come up STARS then I think the person pretty much has to scan me.

That said, I'll take my chances on surviving Day 4 if he thinks that there is another person worth scanning. I know I'm STARS and I'll try to persuade others that I am even without the scan. But whether I'm in it or not, we need to start to see a meaningful circle of trust emerge. Police Chief cannot reveal, so it is basically on Internal Affairs to do it.

As said, I do agree that we need a circle of trust. But it's a fine line between IAD putting a list of stars out there since that is exactly what both Umbrella and the zombies are looking for. I think that IAD has to be careful about how much information they put out there. Finding out about you and Alan would be enough for now, don't you think?

[ntndeacon]

It certainly seems unlikely for him to be stars at this point but I don't rule it out. It's my feeling that if IAD gets anyone as zombie they should be shouting it from the rooftops!

I am starting to agree with this at least tossing hints out there about them. the good thing (kinda) is soon the Umbrella are going to HAVE to start hunting Zombies too. I don't know when they start. they have a thin line to walk. killing stars also helps the Zombies numbers game, but killing Zombies helps the Stars. I would think that in thier PMing they talk about who was scanned by thier seer too.

[hoopsguy]

I think it is clearer now that Alan is not who he says he is. we are running out of vanilla role for him to hide behind.

Police Chief
Internal Affairs
SWAT Team
Survalliance
Sniper

5 dead stars, four vanilla
Probably have 1-2 vanilla left, agreed that there isn't much room for Alan to squeeze in. Although "roles may or may not be in the game".

[path12]

I am starting to agree with this at least tossing hints out there about them. the good thing (kinda) is soon the Umbrella are going to HAVE to start hunting Zombies too. I don't know when they start. they have a thin line to walk. killing stars also helps the Zombies numbers game, but killing Zombies helps the Stars. I would think that in thier PMing they talk about who was scanned by thier seer too.

I didn't think about that. Umbrella has full knowledge of all their scans as the game goes along. That's a big benefit.

[ntndeacon]

I tend to think those roles are in the game though. I could be wrong of course. But as a working hypothesis, it is a good place to start.

[path12]

Police Chief
Internal Affairs
SWAT Team
Survalliance
Sniper

5 dead stars, four vanilla
Probably have 1-2 vanilla left, agreed that there isn't much room for Alan to squeeze in. Although "roles may or may not be in the game".

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

[Alan T]

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

No, I'm just vanilla, I don't have any role. Thats why I really am not that important other than 1 more number closer to or from losing the game. The only thing I have to bring to this game is my analysis which is clearly flawed.

So right now I'm just an extra day for the Stars is all. Not much more benefit.

[ntndeacon]

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

I guess, but I would think that those positions would not make a big deal one way or the other about thier possible roles and just claim to be stars. But this is a valid point. I thought, like hoops, that Alan at least could be IA. This is why he did not get my vote yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Winning Conditions:
STARS: You win when all Zombies are dead, ummm, REALLY dead.

Zombies: You win whem your numbers equal the numbers of S.T.A.R.S. and Umbrella put together.

Umbrella: You win when all S.T.A.R.S. members have been "taken care of"


Umbrella has tough victory conditions, as the Zombies will win before all the STARS are "taken care of". So they have to join us in hunting Zombies if they want to win. With that in mind, I'm fine with publishing information for them. If we get around to eliminating Zombies they will have collected information on just about everyone left already thanks to their seer.

[path12]

I thought, like hoops, that Alan at least could be IA. This is why he did not get my vote yesterday.

I think most of us did. :(

[Alan T]

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

[ntndeacon]

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

I am not sure Iwant IA to tell us if you are Umbrella. I want him to continue searching until they find a Zombie at the very least.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in the event you has just been a major dumbass instead of a schemer I would like to have you back in the group trying to win the game for STARS. And that cannot happen without IA publicly clearing you.

No matter what side you are on this game I'm as mad at you as is reasonable to be over a online game. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to try and win the game. And I think publicly revealing you as STARS (slim possibility, but ...) is worth the trade for us because we HAVE to get a good lynch tomorrow. If you are not a good lynch, we need to know that.

[path12]

Winning Conditions:
STARS: You win when all Zombies are dead, ummm, REALLY dead.

Zombies: You win whem your numbers equal the numbers of S.T.A.R.S. and Umbrella put together.

Umbrella: You win when all S.T.A.R.S. members have been "taken care of"


Umbrella has tough victory conditions, as the Zombies will win before all the STARS are "taken care of". So they have to join us in hunting Zombies if they want to win. With that in mind, I'm fine with publishing information for them. If we get around to eliminating Zombies they will have collected information on just about everyone left already thanks to their seer.

It depends on how many Umbrella there are, doesn't it? If the assumption is three zombies, and say there's four or five Umbrella out there, then the zombies need to kill both -- so it might actually benefit the zombies to know who are stars so they can go the other direction and make sure and get a couple Umbrella.

I'm not sure that makes sense reading it back. :)

[Alan T]

Alan, in the event you has just been a major dumbass instead of a schemer I would like to have you back in the group trying to win the game for STARS. And that cannot happen without IA publicly clearing you.

No matter what side you are on this game I'm as mad at you as is reasonable to be over a online game. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to try and win the game. And I think publicly revealing you as STARS (slim possibility, but ...) is worth the trade for us because we HAVE to get a good lynch tomorrow. If you are not a good lynch, we need to know that.

I think keeping the IA around to find out if you or someone else is a zombie is a better value then keeping me as a roleless Stars member who made a bad read on the game around.

[hoopsguy]

Anyways, it is not worth pursuing the "Path" arguments if IA is going to publish information on Alan - if he finds Alan as a zombie then I'll probably come back in this direction. If Alan comes up as Umbrella or STARS then there wasn't much incentive in bringing up a new candidate.

[ntndeacon]

the good news, if there is any for us, is twofold.
1. we haven't lost too many important roles as of yet (just the one)
2. No vaccinated folks have been killed yet. That has to be in the Zombies minds too. It would be wonderful if were to eliminate both of thier means of enlarging thier numbers

[Alan T]

Anyways, it is not worth pursuing the "Path" arguments if IA is going to publish information on Alan - if he finds Alan as a zombie then I'll probably come back in this direction. If Alan comes up as Umbrella or STARS then there wasn't much incentive in bringing up a new candidate.

I'll compromise with you. If I turn up Umbrella or Zombie then I'm fine with IA releasing my information. If I turn up stars, then don't turn up my information.

Then everyone can assume that silence on the issue = stars and the IA is protected.

Another part of me is thinking that by making the IA go after me it wastes a night looking for zombies. The trick here is I bet the IA already has scanned me and its not going to waste a night at all. If the IA hasn't scanned me then it obviously makes the most sense to scan me tonight.

But I am hoping I have already been scanned, and the IA won't come out to reveal me as stars, and can continue to look for a zombie.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, the value is in making a good lynch decision tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I also agree with what you said about the IA already looking at you - hoping that is the case.

[Alan T]

Alan, the value is in making a good lynch decision tomorrow.

I don't see how my plan doesn't do that?

You are pushing for the IA to reveal on me regardless of my role, even if I am stars.

I am saying reveal if I am umbrella or Zombie. Don't say anything if I am Stars.

If by the time everyone shows up and no one has come out to say I am umbrella or zombies, its pretty safe that I am the dumbass that you all have called me, but a good dumbass and you all can go on your way to someone else if you want.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in the event it goes down that way then I guess it depends on the quality of the other information they possess. If they had information on Cronin and one other STARS then I think it is pretty borderline. But we would have a 3 person CoT for the day. If they have info on you and two more STARS then we have a four person CoT.

Your scenario involves having you cleared and we are guessing about the other people in the game. Obviously the person with this role can assess the value of their information, but I would advocate having as big a CoT as we can possibly have tomorrow and then let the zombies worry about tearing it down the rest of the game.

[st.cronin]

As I'm following along from the grave, I will be rooting hard for whatever team AlanT is on to lose. Even if that is STARS.

That is all. :)

[hoopsguy]

Assuming we have both IA and SWAT around tomorrow, that person could potentially guard IA for a night, ensuring that there is another person that is viewed Night 4.

I think we both agree they come forward with any information on a Zombie.

[Alan T]

Alan, in the event it goes down that way then I guess it depends on the quality of the other information they possess. If they had information on Cronin and one other STARS then I think it is pretty borderline. But we would have a 3 person CoT for the day. If they have info on you and two more STARS then we have a four person CoT.

Your scenario involves having you cleared and we are guessing about the other people in the game. Obviously the person with this role can assess the value of their information, but I would advocate having as big a CoT as we can possibly have tomorrow and then let the zombies worry about tearing it down the rest of the game.

My guess is cronin would be night 1 scan and I would have been last night scan. I at least hope so. but that would end up being a 2 person CoT when in my feeling isn't enough to warrant revealing themselves, especially to just save me.

Since right now I still have in my head that you are a zombie I am hoping if they do scan you they will turn that up and then I agree revealing is good.

maybe saving a different Stars player is worth more to the point he should reveal himself. But I'm not worth it.

[Alan T]

As I'm following along from the grave, I will be rooting hard for whatever team AlanT is on to lose. Even if that is STARS.

That is all. :)

Sorry. :( I'll talk to you in PM after Im eliminated to tell you what you did that made me think you were bad initially. I already said most of it.

[hoopsguy]

No, it would be at least a 3 person list if they are all STARS. IA, you, and another person even if they had scanned Cronin. Potentially four if they did not scan Cronin.

I think it is a long way from a sure thing that Cronin was scanned by IA. If they had scanned Cronin, they had an opportunity to step forward yesterday and prevent what happened. Pretty much everyone in the room agreed Day 3 was pretty important to not lynch STARS, with the looming threat of a conversion.

[hoopsguy]

Anyways, will be back later to discuss this further - going to grab lunch.

[Chief Rum]

It looks like Alan has been busy, or chose not to put up a vote pattern, so since I just went through, Day Three, here's what I came up with:

Day Three voting

(935) Fouts votes SnDvls (1)
(949) AlanT votes St.Cronin (1)
(979) Anxiety votes Fouts (1)
(987) St. Cronin votes Anxiety (1)
(1017) BrianD votes LSG (1)
(1100) hoopsguy votes St. Cronin (2)
(1137) path12 votes St.Cronin (3)
(1143) BrianD UNVOTES LSG (0)***
(1143) BrianD votes St.Cronin (4)
(1151) spleen votes St.Cronin (5)
(1161) ntndeacon votes Fouts (2)
(1181) Glengoyne votes SnDvls (2)
(1189) SnDvls votes Glengoyne (1)
(1194) LSG votes Fouts (3)
(1199) Chief Rum votes St.Cronin (6)
(1216) Mr.Wednesday votes St.Cronin (7)

I tried to stick to what appears Alan's formatting was.

[Glengoyne]

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

Unless you feel like you have a "known" to introduce. Of course, there are only a couple of roles on STARS that could have a "known" ...


I would argue that it is different if you have a "known good" versus an unknown. That is where Tyrith found himself on Day 2.

I'm catching up. I'd just like to comment on this bit about "seeing how it plays out".

My initial gut instinct was that Alan was possibly not good, he just seemed too confident in his statements. My thinking was that it was a sham.

Then Cronin. My gut said that Cronin was a likely good guy.

For a while I tended to trust you as well. You and Cronin were moving into the realm of trustworthy. Then the Hoops Cronin Alan triangle started. I began to think that there were a few scenarios.
1-All of you are Stars, which would be a coup. If we could work together.
2-Alan is not evil, he is simply misguided about Cronin, and I feared that Hoops was working to mend the division between Alan and Cronin to form a false CoT amongst you three. Hoops being Evil, in that case.
3-Alan and Hoops are evil, and playing the lot of us. This became my suspicion especially when the "Cronin is a zombie" angle got floated.
4-Alan is evil, and played Hoops.
5-I was wrong about Cronin, and all of these go out the window.

Right now, I'm leaning toward three and four. I'm not trying to distinguish factions, but yeah that is how I feel about it.

As for having to decide between two unknowns, I'm going to follow my gut before I leave it to chance or follow along with a line of reasoning that I'm not buying into.

[Alan T]

It looks like Alan has been busy, or chose not to put up a vote pattern, so since I just went through, Day Three, here's what I came up with:

Day Three voting

(935) Fouts votes SnDvls (1)
(949) AlanT votes St.Cronin (1)
(979) Anxiety votes Fouts (1)
(987) St. Cronin votes Anxiety (1)
(1017) BrianD votes LSG (1)
(1100) hoopsguy votes St. Cronin (2)
(1137) path12 votes St.Cronin (3)
(1143) BrianD UNVOTES LSG (0)***
(1143) BrianD votes St.Cronin (4)
(1151) spleen votes St.Cronin (5)
(1161) ntndeacon votes Fouts (2)
(1181) Glengoyne votes SnDvls (2)
(1189) SnDvls votes Glengoyne (1)
(1194) LSG votes Fouts (3)
(1199) Chief Rum votes St.Cronin (6)
(1216) Mr.Wednesday votes St.Cronin (7)

I tried to stick to what appears Alan's formatting was.

to be honest, I wasn't busy. I was frustrated with myself. After the lynch results I closed up all of my notepad files (saved or unsaved) and just walked away for a while.

So I don't even have it to post anymore without going back through and re-looking them up. Sorry :(

[Chief Rum]

to be honest, I wasn't busy. I was frustrated with myself. After the lynch results I closed up all of my notepad files (saved or unsaved) and just walked away for a while.

So I don't even have it to post anymore without going back through and re-looking them up. Sorry :(

No need to be sorry. I didn't think it was you forgetting or getting too busy. I felt you purposely didn't post it. I just wasn't sure if you didn't post it out of frustration or if there was an in-game reason.

[Glengoyne]

No, I'm just vanilla, I don't have any role. Thats why I really am not that important other than 1 more number closer to or from losing the game. The only thing I have to bring to this game is my analysis which is clearly flawed.

So right now I'm just an extra day for the Stars is all. Not much more benefit.

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

[Alan T]

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

Ok, I've been called a dumbass, a horrible Werewolf player and annoying. Pardon me if I throw a pity party.

For the record, when I think other people are playing horribly, I usually don't call you all names, but you all continue to do so on me. I made a mistake, I accept that. The name calling is pretty rediculous though that I have so far tolerated.

My entire point was that I don't think the seer should out himself for me. Hoopsguy was trying to get the seer to out himself to say I am STARS to prevent people from lynching me. I don't think thats a smart move. But whatever

[Alan T]

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

And since I am so annoying to you, what other analysis do you want from me? I obviously was wrong about everything in this game up to this point, so why do you even care what i think anymore? Several others have made sure to make it known they don't care.

I've already given the only analysis I have right now, but I'll repeat again for you since I'm so annoying to you. My hunch is hoops being a zombie knew Cronin wasn't a zombie. From reading the interaction between him and Lathum and then knowing that I wasn't a zombie knew I was either STars or umbrella he assumed Cronin must not be umbrella either.

Hoops felt it was a win-win play for him to go along with me since if it failed on Cronin, I took the heat and he was merely convinced. If Cronin was umbrella, then he would get some trust from people for voting a bad guy.

Hoops then is taking my failure and trying to get the seer to out himself to protect me or to reveal me as umbrella.

Right now I have huge alarms in my head going off about Hoops, but thats just my analysis which I have already provided.

Now disagree with that analysis, think Im a bad guy, lynch me.. whatever. But you all and your cutdowns are just childish and gradeschool, and makes this game less fun to play.

If you think I'm bad lynch me, don't insult me. Thanks

[hoopsguy]

Alan, there is a difference between the play and the player. I in no way think you are any of the above that you have listed. If you are STARS I'm baffled by your certainty over the last two days. If you are not STARS then my hat is off to your play.

I think we need to have our best shot at a good lynch tomorrow. I'm open for any alternatives to the "seer" coming out that people can propose.

[Glengoyne]

Ok, I've been called a dumbass, a horrible Werewolf player and annoying. Pardon me if I throw a pity party.

For the record, when I think other people are playing horribly, I usually don't call you all names, but you all continue to do so on me. I made a mistake, I accept that. The name calling is pretty rediculous though that I have so far tolerated.

My entire point was that I don't think the seer should out himself for me. Hoopsguy was trying to get the seer to out himself to say I am STARS to prevent people from lynching me. I don't think thats a smart move. But whatever

Two things.
First I didn't intend to call you a name. I don't think you are playing horribly. I think you very likely manipulated a huge vote swing against someone on an opposing team. I just found the angle you were taking today, attempting to swing yourself back into the good graces of the unknowing stars with a pity me I'm frustrated angle, to be annoying. I think cogent analysis would be a more respectable avenue to take. You might actually still be usefull to us, IF you do come up stars. At least pretend to be a useful star.

Second. After reading a few more posts, I thought your plan with the seer was more sensible than Hoops.

[Glengoyne]

And since I am so annoying to you, what other analysis do you want from me? I obviously was wrong about everything in this game up to this point, so why do you even care what i think anymore? Several others have made sure to make it known they don't care.

I've already given the only analysis I have right now, but I'll repeat again for you since I'm so annoying to you. My hunch is hoops being a zombie knew Cronin wasn't a zombie. From reading the interaction between him and Lathum and then knowing that I wasn't a zombie knew I was either STars or umbrella he assumed Cronin must not be umbrella either.

Hoops felt it was a win-win play for him to go along with me since if it failed on Cronin, I took the heat and he was merely convinced. If Cronin was umbrella, then he would get some trust from people for voting a bad guy.

Hoops then is taking my failure and trying to get the seer to out himself to protect me or to reveal me as umbrella.

Right now I have huge alarms in my head going off about Hoops, but thats just my analysis which I have already provided.

Now disagree with that analysis, think Im a bad guy, lynch me.. whatever. But you all and your cutdowns are just childish and gradeschool, and makes this game less fun to play.

If you think I'm bad lynch me, don't insult me. Thanks

I'm really not trying to be insulting. I apologize for any offense I may have given you. Consider that post a "prod" or a "swift kick" to change your course of action. It was your play today I was critical of. Not what you've done in the past, as if you've done what I suspect you've done, your play previous today was inspired.

I actually like the analysis above regardig hoops, because I don't want him getting a pass today either.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I'm not sure why Alan should feel he is so under attack, but then I am not in his shoes. From my perspective, he has helped us out immensely with his theories. I much prefer someone coming up with theories that turn out bad, then no one doing any analysis at all. So kudos, Alan, even if it hasn't worked out so far.

I, of course, reserve the right to retract the above statement and call you a cad if it turns out you're playing us brilliantly, you bastard. ;)

Seriously, though, Alan's theories have made some sense and he has spelled things out pretty well. While they may have been wrong, but prior to the lynches/kills, they all semeed to have some validity (I think everyone would acknowledge that, even if they disagreed with Alan).

[hoopsguy]

Chief, the problem was is that Alan went for broke on something that was not a sure thing and argued it so strenuously that he brought other players along (well, me at least) with the belief he had 100% information. And STARS is in a pretty bad spot right now as a result.

He isn't the only person who screwed up. Obviously a lot of us did to get to where we are today.

Glen, in terms of me getting a "pass" on Day 4, I'm guessing that is not happening. Put me #2 in line of people who have something to answer for yesterday.

[Fouts]

So we're down to 13 players. If we started with 2 zombies, then its now 11-2 villager > zombie ratio. After night 3 conversion, 10-3. If we do not get a zombie in the lynch, and 2 night 4 kills we'll be at 7-3. Repeat 3 deaths on night 5 and its 4-3. So day 6 is our last day unless we find a zombie.

I think it would be wise for the Umbrella to be helping us find a zombie. They want to win, but not let the zombies win before they do.

[Fouts]

So given Alan's screwup on st.cronin, where does that leave me? I kept saying Alan's 99.9% scenario between cronin and me was wrong, but then was linked to Lathum by Alan.

Am I still considered a bad guy?

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I also was suspicious of you based on Lathum's play. But I had not put much stock in the "Fouts or Cronin must be bad" theory.

If people want to assume you are Umbrella for tomorrow, that probably isn't the worst spot for you to be in ...

[Fouts]

Fouts, I also was suspicious of you based on Lathum's play. But I had not put much stock in the "Fouts or Cronin must be bad" theory.

If people want to assume you are Umbrella for tomorrow, that probably isn't the worst spot for you to be in ...

I suppose I agree. STARS and Umbrella need to work together to get at least one zombie before this gets out of control.

[Chubby]

time check

[Glengoyne]

Crap. I thought deadline was in three hours.

Hehe good thing I have no life, so I could hang out here for this NOW.

[Chubby]

As the sun rises on another day, the citizens of Raccoon City worry what horrors they will awake to today. With two deaths the previous night, they wonder who they may find missing this morning.

A quick head count reveals that they are shorthanded, they are missing one person... NTNDEACON!

A quick search of the town square leads the citizens to search for ntndeacon at his home. Once there, they find his door smashed in and a gruesome scene in the living room. They find ntndeacon at his desk with the top half of his skull removed, brains half eaten. They find what appears to be type writer ribbons in his pocket. Whatever he was using them for, they sure didn't save him...

Day Four ends Sun 11pm EST

[ntndeacon]

well Phooey. good luck everyone.

[Alan T]

Not an entirely unpredictable move. People tossed hints about ntndeacon around yesterday asking what folks thought about him (Im guessing thinking he might be the chief). he was the next to last person I had to rule out as the chief before i knew he wasnt the chief.. so not entirely unexpected

[SnDvls]

so that makes five vanilla stars members now?

[Alan T]

so that makes five vanilla stars members now?

Yes. So in my mind its only me and 1 other vanilla stars members left. Anyone else claiming to be vanilla probably isn't (or we extremely underestimated the numbers of stars to start with)

[Glengoyne]

Not an entirely unpredictable move. People tossed hints about ntndeacon around yesterday asking what folks thought about him (Im guessing thinking he might be the chief). he was the next to last person I had to rule out as the chief before i knew he wasnt the chief.. so not entirely unexpected

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

[Alan T]

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

Nah I knew he wasnt the chief. My guess right now is that there is no chief in this game.

[st.cronin]

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

Not me.

[ntndeacon]

me either. and the ribbon had the script for Night of the Living Dead on it :D

[Fouts]

Where do we go now? I'm willing to listen to hoops, as alan has been wrong, terribly wrong.

[Glengoyne]

Alan has been wrong..AND I'm not sure that Hoops wasn't his partner in crime.

I do trust Hoops a whole lot more than Alan at this point though.

[Chubby]

Dodgerchick is taking Anxiety's place.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I think we need to figure out what the Alan T strategy is for today. If there is not an Internal Affairs officer coming forward with a list of some sort then this gets harder for us.

Looks like the deadline is Sunday night, so hopefully everyone will be available to at least check in over the next 24 hours.

[Alan T]

OK, I think we need to figure out what the Alan T strategy is for today. If there is not an Internal Affairs officer coming forward with a list of some sort then this gets harder for us.

Looks like the deadline is Sunday night, so hopefully everyone will be available to at least check in over the next 24 hours.

Vote hoopsguy

My analysis have all been wrong about all kinds of things. I still believe what I say about Hoops trying to out the seer. I'm just putting this out here as a statement vote. I'll move it based on whatever we learn from night activities.

I'm sure hoops won't mind though since a vote from me will likely cause everyone else to stay away from him.

[BrianD]

I have been following along with the discussion today but didn't want to say a whole lot before the night actions. I can't say I am too surprised by the kill since I was starting to think that NTN might be the PC. On that assumption I was going to think about leading a charge on Fouts, but since we know NTN wasn't the PC, I no longer have any particular reason to suspect Fouts.

I understand the current Alan/Hoops situation, and we may need to look at those two. It does seem like Alan has led us quite off target, but I'm going to have to go back to see if I think it was planned. I had my own suspicions about St.Cronin from the start, so I can't claim that Alan directed me anywhere. My logic took me to the same guy.

I will bring up the point again about looking at UTR people. I am going to guess that we haven't had any votes (or at least more than one) for the zombie infector. I think the damage has already been done on that front, bit I think we are going to have to dig if we still want to find the infector.

[path12]

Nah I knew he wasnt the chief. My guess right now is that there is no chief in this game.

Huh? So you think the role is a red herring? Wouldn't it be needed from a balance standpoint?

[path12]

So was anyone attacked last night? I figure if nobody answers this then there was a successful conversion.

[path12]

I will bring up the point again about looking at UTR people. I am going to guess that we haven't had any votes (or at least more than one) for the zombie infector. I think the damage has already been done on that front, bit I think we are going to have to dig if we still want to find the infector.

Brian, I'm curious about your reason for thinking that there's been no votes for the infector. I assume it is that you figure they've been trying not to be noticed but wanted to make sure.

I'm also willing at this point (barring an IAD find of zombie/Umbrella) to also start looking at some of the UTR players. Whatever side hoops and Alan are on, I really don't think they're zombies, and with the possible conversion last night, I think that needs to be our focus.

So who do you have in mind besides LSG who I believe you brought up yesterday?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I still think there's a fairly strong possibility that Alan is Umbrella, in which case he would make a bad lynch target.

[Alan T]

Huh? So you think the role is a red herring? Wouldn't it be needed from a balance standpoint?

Not really. We had 2 seers, 1 bodyguard, 1 assassin seperate from that role. Thats more than we get in some games.

[hoopsguy]

Vote hoopsguy

My analysis have all been wrong about all kinds of things. I still believe what I say about Hoops trying to out the seer. I'm just putting this out here as a statement vote. I'll move it based on whatever we learn from night activities.

I'm sure hoops won't mind though since a vote from me will likely cause everyone else to stay away from him.

Alan, do what you have to do. I think we are deep enough in the game without a circle of trust that we are moving too close to the edge to screw up another vote today. I'm actually trying to have reasons to keep you alive rather than see you get offed solely as backlash for the Cronin thing. But if you want to see it as me "outing" the seer then so be it.

I do agree with you that if the Police Chief is in the game he has been inscrutable. Which is great for avoiding Zombies but sucks for us learning much when he is dead. Maybe there will be a pattern in the posts, more than the votes.

[Alan T]

Alan, do what you have to do. I think we are deep enough in the game without a circle of trust that we are moving too close to the edge to screw up another vote today. I'm actually trying to have reasons to keep you alive rather than see you get offed solely as backlash for the Cronin thing. But if you want to see it as me "outing" the seer then so be it.

I do agree with you that if the Police Chief is in the game he has been inscrutable. Which is great for avoiding Zombies but sucks for us learning much when he is dead. Maybe there will be a pattern in the posts, more than the votes.

Like I said, no one is coming out today to say I am umbrella or zombie. People have had plenty of opportunities to verify whether that is the case or not. Its up to the individual players in those roles to decide if they feel its worth coming out to say I am STARS or not. I will leave it up to their judgement on how they want to play their role. I personally don't feel its worth outing themselves to save me. I would rather give them an extra day to try to hit a zombie. (or even give us several umbrella members).

[hoopsguy]

By the way, it was completely obvious that NTN would be the target last night if he was not a zombie. Day 1 vote - Cronin and Bullet dead, only stray vote was NTN on Fouts.

What do we learn from it? Well, the Zombies would already know if Fouts was a Zombie, so nothing there. But they would not have a way of knowing if Fouts is an Umbrella or STARS.

NTN's other votes went to Lathum and back to Fouts. This is where I believed that NTN was not the PC - why would he return to voting for Fouts again on Day 3? Then again, why has the Chief done anything he has done this game? I still can not figure that out. Still, NTN had a "perfect" voting record insofar as he had not been proven to vote for a single STARS member yet and he was the only remaining player to fit this profile as everyone else voted Bullet/Cronin on Day 1.

[hoopsguy]

We still have four people left to check in - after I have seen all of those people post in the thread I'll start to adopt the idea that someone has scanned you as STARS and elected to keep the info to themselves.

Obviously that is one way to play it. But having a two man circle of trust (self + Alan) isn't as valuable, in my opinion, as having a larger circle today for this specific vote. We get one Zombie and we may be able to start establishing links, direct or indirect, to the rest of them. I think that is worth the risk associated with a role reveal. The bodyguard can protect part of the circle of trust, and potentially the IA can scan another person the following day.

We are not going to have many more "following days" if we miss on today's lynch. If the Zombies started with 3 and converted a 4th we are on the brink now. I'm hoping they started with only 2, which leaves both Umbrella and STARS with a still-realistic chance to win.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, would the Police Chief know if a STARS member was converted?

[Chubby]

Chubby, would the Police Chief know if a STARS member was converted?

A converted member of S.T.A.R.S. or Umbrella would not tell their superiors that they were now a zombie out of fear of execution.

[spleen1015]

I would like to see us go after someone that is UTR, as BrianD suggested. Other than LSG, I don't know who it should be. So...

VOTE LoneStarGirl

[hoopsguy]

OK, I would suggest that on the topic of a conversion that either Alan or I (if you start with the assumption that one or both of us are not Zombies) would have been toxic last night in terms of conversion targets. If IA comes out with one of us as trusted, I think you can bank on the fact that they would not have been converted last night.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, can you tell us the order of actions for:
1. Conversion via Infector
2. IA scan on a target

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, can you give a little more reason for why LSG? I think there are multiple people who could be considered UTR ...

[hoopsguy]

For example, Spleen has been UTR ...
Not that I'm expecting a self-vote, but an UTR player - who was pretty vocal as a villager in previous games, as I learned first hand in Tombstone - calling out another player as UTR seems a little odd.

[Alan T]

We still have four people left to check in - after I have seen all of those people post in the thread I'll start to adopt the idea that someone has scanned you as STARS and elected to keep the info to themselves.

Obviously that is one way to play it. But having a two man circle of trust (self + Alan) isn't as valuable, in my opinion, as having a larger circle today for this specific vote. We get one Zombie and we may be able to start establishing links, direct or indirect, to the rest of them. I think that is worth the risk associated with a role reveal. The bodyguard can protect part of the circle of trust, and potentially the IA can scan another person the following day.

We are not going to have many more "following days" if we miss on today's lynch. If the Zombies started with 3 and converted a 4th we are on the brink now. I'm hoping they started with only 2, which leaves both Umbrella and STARS with a still-realistic chance to win.

I think the reasoning that someone else put forth was pretty sound to explain why there would be only 2 zombies to start. Night 1 = 1 kill , obviously a team up. Night 2 = 2 kills, obviously they went solo kills. Night 3 = 1 kill.

So that means one of three possibilities:

1) Started with 2 zombies, who teamed up night 1, solo killed night 2, solo kill + conversion night 3.

2) Started with 2 zombies, who teamed up night 1, solo killed night 2, team up night 3, saving conversion for a CoT to be formed from Seer outing himself and picking one of the trusted Stars to convert.

3) Started with 3 zombies (2 + infector). team up night 1 (infector has no kill ability), solo kills night 2 (Infector has no kill ability), team up night 3, infiltrator converts.

4) Started with 3 zombies (2 + infector). Team up night 1 (infector has no kill ability), solo kills night 2 (infector has no kill ability), team up night 3 (infector has no kill ability) and infector doesnt convert anyone while waiting on CoT to form and nab a trusted stars member for conversion.


Now the rules make it pretty clear that -all- zombies have night kill abilities, so I think its very unlikely #3 or 4 exists. I think the most likely scenerio is#1.

The other possibility is:

5)

[Alan T]

lol my daughter is climbing all over me and submitted it before i was ready by falling on my laptop..

anyways #5 is there are more than 2 zombies, but for some reason on night 2 they had 2 solo kill while the other(s) didn't solo kill. This also would mean on nights with team ups they had someone just sitting around without trying to solo kill.


So I think its more likely there are just 2 with the possibility of 1 and a small chance at 2 converts (to come tonight or later in the game)

[Chubby]

Chubby, can you tell us the order of actions for:
1. Conversion via Infector
2. IA scan on a target

That is the correct order. The order of operations doesn't really help you much IMO and I had been asked in PM (and gave the answer) so it's only fair I answer it here as well.

[hoopsguy]

I'm hopeful that we only had two starting Zombies. I think that makes sense, but I also try to plan for the worst-case scenario. I don't think it helps to hope for the best when planning end-game strategy. Expect the worst, be happy with results that are not as grim as you forecast.

On another note, there is also an outside chance that there was a failed conversion last night, although I do not know how to work that into our calculations.

[Alan T]

My guess is that an attempted conversion stopped by vaccination would have been known by the person who was attempted to be converted. But I have no proof in the rules of that, so its just a guess.

I wonder if thats what the Umbrella doctor can research. Something to do with a vaccination, that either allows, one of the following to happen:

1) The umbrella scientist can pick an umbrella person each night (each other night? each third night?) to vaccinate?

2) When umbrella scientist dies, it allows some vaccinations to be found and somehow it gets distributed? (Random distribution? Pre-selected at start that gets unlocked when umbrella scientist dies?)

Both of those feel like a reach. Just trying to figure out how vaccinated or not enters play, and how to tie it into existing game roles.

Since being lucky or not seemed to be distributed at the start randomly, its possible the same is with being vaccinated.

[hoopsguy]

Abilties With No Faction Bearing

*Vaccinated - Immune to being infected by the zombie virus. How did they come to be immune? Is there a cure?

*Lucky - Day vote counts double as long as the player voted for a member of an opposing faction the previous day.

These abilities are pre-assigned to players but are not visibile to to anyone until player's death.


Sounds like the ability is pre-assigned, based on the rules.

[BrianD]

Brian, I'm curious about your reason for thinking that there's been no votes for the infector. I assume it is that you figure they've been trying not to be noticed but wanted to make sure.

I'm also willing at this point (barring an IAD find of zombie/Umbrella) to also start looking at some of the UTR players. Whatever side hoops and Alan are on, I really don't think they're zombies, and with the possible conversion last night, I think that needs to be our focus.

So who do you have in mind besides LSG who I believe you brought up yesterday?

Here is my logic. Let's assume there HAS been a vote for the infector. Who could that be? Either Fouts, Sndvls, AlanT, me, Anxiety, Glengoyne.

I'm going to take Anxiety and Glengoyne off of the list. They each got one stray vote so either of them could be the infector. I also ended up with only one stray vote, but there were more on me at one time. I know that I'm not the infector, but I guess nobody else knows that.

AlanT has been very vocal and leading the charge on most people. I don't think he would do this as the infector. He even asked people to lynch him if he was wrong on St.Cronin which I could see him doing as an ordinary zombie, but not the infector.

SnDvls picked up a few votes on Day 2 and then got the first vote on Day 3. If he was the infector I would think there would be more people jumping to his defense after an early first vote. Zombies might be cool enough to wait it out since it was a good guess that St.Cronin was eventually going to get lynched, but I would have at least expected someone to lay the groundwork for a SnDvls defense just in case.

This leaves Fouts. He got a stray vote on Day 1 which could have been a PC vote. If he was the infector, this should have scared the zombies. It might have been a little obvious if they had killed NTN on Night 1, but they wouldn't have waited past Night 2. NTN did get killed after returning his vote to Fouts on Day 3, but that still seems too long to wait on a reasonable PC choice.

My reasoning for Fouts is probably the weakest, but he just doesn't "feel" right for the infector. I'm willing to admit this one may be bad logic, but I'm really looking elsewhere for the infector.

The trouble with my line of thought is that we have no idea what to think about Anxiety, Path, Glengoyne, Mr.Wed, ChiefRum, LSG, and Spleen.

I initially picked LSG for some drive-by attacks on people, but I could have easily picked anyone from the list above.

[BrianD]

By the way, it was completely obvious that NTN would be the target last night if he was not a zombie. Day 1 vote - Cronin and Bullet dead, only stray vote was NTN on Fouts.


My only problem with this is that NTN voted for Fouts twice. If your only power is for people to look back at your votes after you have died, wouldn't you spread your votes around? If NTN had been the PC, he would have only fingered one person. That would seem like a waste of a role. I'm not saying your reasoning for why he was killed is wrong, but it should have been clear that he wasn't the PC.

[Glengoyne]

Here is my logic. Let's assume there HAS been a vote for the infector. Who could that be? Either Fouts, Sndvls, AlanT, me, Anxiety, Glengoyne.

I'm going to take Anxiety and Glengoyne off of the list. They each got one stray vote so either of them could be the infector. I also ended up with only one stray vote, but there were more on me at one time. I know that I'm not the infector, but I guess nobody else knows that.
...

I like lists, and I like to work from them. I'm just missing something here. What is the purpose of assuming the Infector, as opposed to any single zombie, has received a vote?

Is it to see if anyone came to their rescue? Also to see who came to their rescue?

While I started this post to question your basic premise, I now think I see where you are going. Do we have anyone who meets the profile?

I gotta go run off to church now, but I'm interested to see where this goes. if this goes. This premise may not be the strongest thing we have to go on. I was contemplating the chances that Alan could be a zombie, hiding in plain sight, but I'm not really satisfied with that position. I think his actions fit an Umbrella much better, driving discussion of non-umbrellas to get stars lynched.

[BrianD]

My infector-spotting idea would have been more helpful yesterday before the first chance of infection. As it is, there is no chance of infection tonight, but I think a 50% chance tomorrow. Today it is important to find any zombie, but the infector would be nice.

[Lorena]

Thanks for letting me in the game Chubby.

I'm about halfway through the thread and have a lot of reading to do tonight before lynch time so bare with me.

On the self-voting issue and leaving a game, I have done both out of frustration, so I know where st.cronin is coming from. I put a lot of thought into it that sometimes I have to stop and tell myself that it's ONLY A GAME.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to getting caught up; it has been entertaining read so far.

[Mr. Wednesday]

SnDvls picked up a few votes on Day 2 and then got the first vote on Day 3. If he was the infector I would think there would be more people jumping to his defense after an early first vote. Zombies might be cool enough to wait it out since it was a good guess that St.Cronin was eventually going to get lynched, but I would have at least expected someone to lay the groundwork for a SnDvls defense just in case.
Sndvls has been very UTR, including IIRC a couple of drive-by votes. I'm not sure there was ever enough of a groundswell to be worth mobilizing a defense, but I could be wrong there. (Not to mention that, if we presume there were only two zombies, there would only have been on besides Sndvls to begin mounting a defense.)

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote Sndvls

I am not going to retalliate on spleen yet, but Sndvls has been flying under the radar and has put in a lot of weird votes, which Glen agreed to. Out of everybody he seems the more obvious choice

[Chief Rum]

I would encourage the UTR approach as well. I think the guys being vocal have been too vocal to be likely zombies (although Umbrella is still a strong possibility). It would be an extremely bold play for a zombie to try and pull off what Alan and hoops, for instance, have been doing and be zombies.

And, yes, I know that includes me as UTR. Of course, there seem to be a ton of UTR in this game, with only a handful driving the discussions. So I am not sure if this helps much.

At least I have the excuse of working a lot. I don't know what everyone else's excuse is, but it does make me suspicious.

Like Glengoyne, I, too, am not sure why we should make any assumptions based on the infector having received a vote. I think we should concentrate instead on veteran players playing quiet.

[hoopsguy]

Votes for SnDvls so far:
D1: Bullet (middle of the pack)
D2: Alan (tipped vote to 5-4 vs Cronin)
D3: Glengoyne (only one voting for him)

Evaluation: reasoning for Alan seemed faulty at time, can't really evaluate whether he made a "correct call" without knowledge on Alan. Made good vote yesterday not going with Cronin, for whatever that is worth.

[hoopsguy]

In terms of evaluating UTR, here are post counts:


Alan 346
Hoops 207
Fouts 87
BrianD 74
Glen 70
Path 63
MrW 58
LSG 41
SnDvls 39
Spleen 28
Chief 26
Anxiety/DC 17

[BrianD]

Hoops, what are your thoughts about LSG?

[path12]

I would like to see us go after someone that is UTR, as BrianD suggested. Other than LSG, I don't know who it should be. So...


Well, you would be one.

My list of people who have been rather utr would include Anxiety/DC (though that may be due to illness), Chief Rum, LSG, SnDvls to an extent, and Spleen.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, she is one of the people who did not vote for Cronin in either of the last two days - frankly I'm not sure what to make of that piece of info. Outside of that, I have not been able to get any kind of bead on her at all.

[path12]

lol my daughter is climbing all over me and submitted it before i was ready by falling on my laptop..

anyways #5 is there are more than 2 zombies, but for some reason on night 2 they had 2 solo kill while the other(s) didn't solo kill. This also would mean on nights with team ups they had someone just sitting around without trying to solo kill.


So I think its more likely there are just 2 with the possibility of 1 and a small chance at 2 converts (to come tonight or later in the game)

I have another possibility that comes to mind: Three zombies and the infector was saved in order to prevent any chance of hitting a bodyguard or being seen. So then it could be night 1 team of 2 kill, night 2 either 1 two person kill or two solos with one sitting out, and yesterday a team kill and conversion.

[hoopsguy]

What I'm struggling with today is trying to figure out who are my STARS allies. By process of elimination, I think I can rule out a big chunk of people for Police Chief. Internal Affairs is a little harder to break down, but I'm trying to do that as well. Since there is nothing that resembles a public Circle of Trust, I'm trying to construct models for a private one.

But the voting records are a mess.

[BrianD]

Brian, she is one of the people who did not vote for Cronin in either of the last two days - frankly I'm not sure what to make of that piece of info. Outside of that, I have not been able to get any kind of bead on her at all.

The reason I ask is because you briefly linked yourself with Cronin and she put you on top of her suspect list. I point out the drive-by and she put me on the top of her suspect list. Those two drive-bys seemed odd. I'm wondering if she is just trying to stir up trouble.

[path12]

In terms of evaluating UTR, here are post counts:


Alan 346
Hoops 207
Fouts 87
BrianD 74
Glen 70
Path 63
MrW 58
LSG 41
SnDvls 39
Spleen 28
Chief 26
Anxiety/DC 17


I generally hate using post counts to analyze, but I'm struck by the fact that Spleen was 3rd in posts with 200-odd last game and is so much quieter this one.

[Alan T]

I generally hate using post counts to analyze, but I'm struck by the fact that Spleen was 3rd in posts with 200-odd last game and is so much quieter this one.

Well I read spleens posts as very fishy back in day 2, and actually thought that he would be the next to go after if cronin turned up bad. Since Cronin didn't turn up bad, I really didn't follow that lead any longer.

If I had to rate folks, I would do something like this:

Trust:

Medium trust:

Some trust:

Neutral:
Chief
Anxiety/DC

Some distrust:
BrianD
Glen
LSG
SnDvls

Medium distrust:
Fouts
Path
MrW
Spleen

Distrust:
Hoops


Yeah... as you can tell, I havent really felt good about anyone so far this game.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, are Spleen's "fishy" posts on Day 2 predicated on Cronin being bad? I know they were for you at the time, but how about on a re-read given current info?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if I assume that you are STARS then Spleen's voting record is pretty dicey. Votes for you on Day 2, is middle of the pack voting for Cronin yesterday. We have a change in posting behavior from previous games. And today he votes for LSG for being UTR. He is right at the top of people I suspect at the moment.

I'm moving to the point where I have to believe Alan is STARS - if the Internal Affairs person has not viewed him by now they are just crazy. If they have viewed him as anything but STARS and not spoken up they are really hurting the team. So, I'm going to have to get to the point where I have to start constructing theories with Alan on my side, even if I am at the bottom of his trust list.

[Alan T]

Alan, are Spleen's "fishy" posts on Day 2 predicated on Cronin being bad? I know they were for you at the time, but how about on a re-read given current info?

"Fishy" posts aren't really predicated on someone being bad, they just smell off. Just I would have placed much more credence to them if he had turned up bad. Spleen has definitly played this game differently than he played the last game.

Right now I don't really feel strongly enough about him to push actively for his lynch, but I do feel strongly enough that I don't know if I would trust him being the one pushing to look at UtR people right now. Its a bit too much of the pot calling the kettle black.

The person he chose Lonestargirl has seemed odd in her posts to me, so I don't find as much fault in the person he chose, but sometimes those types of things are too easy to set someone up for coming across the wrong way.

Right now I kind of view Lonestargirl and Sndvls both in the same light.. THey both did hit and runs with faulty logic, but I can't place a finger on the motive for why they would try to stage what it would seem they were trying to stage there.

Mr.W and Spleen I both put in a different collumn where they didn't do the hit and runs that LSG and Sndvls did, but instead they were using more sound reason but in a way to shape things more so.. (or I should say I can find possible motives easy to believe for why a bad guy would post like they are posting.)

I don't really trust any of the bunch though.. just find it funny Spleen is driving the UtR hunt.

[Alan T]

Alan, if I assume that you are STARS then Spleen's voting record is pretty dicey. Votes for you on Day 2, is middle of the pack voting for Cronin yesterday. We have a change in posting behavior from previous games. And today he votes for LSG for being UTR. He is right at the top of people I suspect at the moment.

I'm moving to the point where I have to believe Alan is STARS - if the Internal Affairs person has not viewed him by now they are just crazy. If they have viewed him as anything but STARS and not spoken up they are really hurting the team. So, I'm going to have to get to the point where I have to start constructing theories with Alan on my side, even if I am at the bottom of his trust list.

I don't place any weight for someone voting for me on those days as meaning they are possibly bad. I don't think the police chief is in the game, and only IA would know as far as stars goes that I am good. In fact, the only people who would know that I wasn't bad would be the bad guys.

When it was Cronin vs me in the race mid-day 2 if Cronin had been bad, then I think some weight could be put on it, but since Cronin was good, there was nothing to save.

So voting for me on day 2 isn't really a sign in my mad that you are bad or good. In some ways I can almost trust those people a hair more.

All of my distrust with spleen is simply based on his interaction with you (hoops) on day 2 and how it came across to me.

[spleen1015]

I don't really trust any of the bunch though.. just find it funny Spleen is driving the UtR hunt.

But, I'm not driving it though. Twice I have publically agreed with someone who has brought it up. The first time, I didn't vote, but wanted to vote for LSG. This time, I voted for her.

You guys want me to vote for vocal players? That would mean I am voting for hoops or Alan. Screw that. I'm not going to let folks lay in the weeds and win the game.

LSG needs some more votes to get her talking. So, start voting for her.

[LoneStarGirl]

Sorry I haven't been participating as much this round guys, for some reason I can't get a good grasp on anything...

I just know there are so few STARS left and at least 2 zombies out there, I know I am stars, and i have a good feeling about the other one, but now its going to be difficult to split apart umbrella from Zombie.

[LoneStarGirl]

Why me spleen? Is it because of the boons??

There are four people with less posts than me, so how did you come to the conclusion i was bad?

[LoneStarGirl]

not boons.... boobs

[Alan T]

And then spleen and LSG both pop in at the same time to say hi :)

i dont have a problem with the UtR approach. I don't like letting people who don't participate in the discussion stick around without good reason. My main comment was that you are voting for someone who is being utr who has a third more posts than you :)

[spleen1015]

Why me spleen? Is it because of the boons??

There are four people with less posts than me, so how did you come to the conclusion i was bad?

Honestly, it is because you griped about not having an important role early in the game.

Alan spoke out a little ealier about there probably on being one vanilla STARS role left. Well, if there is only one left, I know who it is. So, it can't be you.

[Alan T]

Honestly, it is because you griped about not having an important role early in the game.

Alan spoke out a little ealier about there probably on being one vanilla STARS role left. Well, if there is only one left, I know who it is. So, it can't be you.

Are you saying you have a vanilla stars role?

[LoneStarGirl]

Spleen, why do you believe Alant? He said cronin was bad, and you believed him then too, that is why you voted for him. And you were both wrong. I didn't vote for St. Cronin, wouldn't that say I am more 'vanilla' then you are?

[LoneStarGirl]

I am saying I am STARS. whatever the hell vanilla means...

[spleen1015]

Are you saying you have a vanilla stars role?

I guarantee you that I am vanilla STARS.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, why do you believe Alant? He said cronin was bad, and you believed him then too, that is why you voted for him. And you were both wrong. I didn't vote for St. Cronin, wouldn't that say I am more 'vanilla' then you are?

HA! I didn't say I believed Alan. I just said he mentioned it. I went and did the math myself. There's no more than 1 or 2 left and I don't think you are one of them.

If you are STARS, you're not vanilla.

[LoneStarGirl]

If you are stars spleen then we are on the same side and we need to stop picking on eachother and go after somebody else, like Glen or Sndvls

[LoneStarGirl]

what the hell is vanilla? someone with no special abilities? Because that is me

[spleen1015]

not boons.... boobs

I was going to ignore this comment because it is a pretty dumbass thing to say, but alas, I can't.

[Alan T]

I am saying I am STARS. whatever the hell vanilla means...

means plain role with no special abilities (like cronin)

[LoneStarGirl]

Spleen if i highlighted all the dumbass stuff you said I'd be here all day. But I choose not to dwell on stuff that is insignificant to the game. It seems you are trying to take attention off yourself.

Unvote SNDVLS

Vote Spleen1015

[LoneStarGirl]

hoops you are being quiet... that isn't like you.

[LoneStarGirl]

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

[Mr. Wednesday]

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

Alan and/or hoops opined that there's nobody with a "chief" voting pattern right now.

[BrianD]

If you are stars spleen then we are on the same side and we need to stop picking on eachother and go after somebody else, like Glen or Sndvls

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen Day 2 posts:
#423 - tells Alan his theory on Cronin vs Fouts may not be as good as he thinks it is (certainly 1/2 right)
#429 - Alan revealing his theory has "shot holes in my strategy" - Spleen, care to mention what the heck your strategy has been?
#462 - thinks Alan is a better candidate than Cronin or Fouts
#469 - still thinks Alan's theory is "bunk", that his pushing it is a "red flag". Sticking to his "strategy", wants to see how things develop today.
#564 - votes Alan for his conviction in theory that Spleen does not trust, may not be around later in day


And that is all he posted on Day 2.

[BrianD]

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

dola,

Right after I say this I see LSG voted for Spleen. I think this fight is still worth watching to see if it was real or not.

[Alan T]

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

I am basing my thoughts on people's behavior to me as well as behavior to other known stars players. Considering vote counts a little bit, but basing it more on behavior more than anything. For instance on day 2 for a while you were still on my list of possible people who could be the chief (I had like 11-12 or so entering day 2), but I scratched you off based on your interaction with me that day. (not necessarily voting for me but more how you interacted).

I could be wrong about there not being a chief, but its my feeling right now. I am also starting to wonder if there are other roles listed not in the game. Primary ones I'm thinking about are the Assassin (often times you see the assassin go by night 3-4 as they want to use the ability before they get nightkilled or lynched), and the witness (we've had 3 nights and so far no hit from IA or the witness role?)

Main reason I am wondering this is trying to figure out if there is a place for all of these vanilla stars people still around. I think there are a few roles that would call themselves vanilla to try to keep from outing themselves.

The thing I am most afraid of right now is trying to figure out who was converted. Basically anything that i previously felt about anyone could possibly have been reset last night anyways with a conversion.

[hoopsguy]

hoops you are being quiet... that isn't like you.

Was digging up old posts - took awhile to search through the ten pages of Day 2 posts.

[BrianD]

I have also come to the belief that there is no PC, but I'm basing this mostly on votes. I don't think anyone has voted like a PC...even one that is trying to avoid detection.

[Alan T]

Spleen Day 2 posts:
#423 - tells Alan his theory on Cronin vs Fouts may not be as good as he thinks it is (certainly 1/2 right)
#429 - Alan revealing his theory has "shot holes in my strategy" - Spleen, care to mention what the heck your strategy has been?
#462 - thinks Alan is a better candidate than Cronin or Fouts
#469 - still thinks Alan's theory is "bunk", that his pushing it is a "red flag". Sticking to his "strategy", wants to see how things develop today.
#564 - votes Alan for his conviction in theory that Spleen does not trust, may not be around later in day


And that is all he posted on Day 2.

I am not quite sure what you are or are not trying to prove right now. Like I stated, the way Spleen came out right after you with some various thoughts smelled pretty fishy to me at the time like trying to save Cronin. Since Cronin did not end up bad, it lessened my bullseye on Spleen a bit. I think what you posted as far as what spleen said on day 2 pretty much supports why I would have felt that way right?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, after going through the Day 2 stuff I'm not sure that Spleen and I interacted at all, although both of us did with you. Or is the fact that both of us challenged your theory, but didn't talk to each other going to be proof that we are both bad?

I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to believe that people are STARS today. Believe it or not, no one coming out saying Alan is NOT is a better reason than just about anything else I have listed so far.

[Alan T]

Alan, after going through the Day 2 stuff I'm not sure that Spleen and I interacted at all, although both of us did with you. Or is the fact that both of us challenged your theory, but didn't talk to each other going to be proof that we are both bad?

I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to believe that people are STARS today. Believe it or not, no one coming out saying Alan is NOT is a better reason than just about anything else I have listed so far.

I think the link between you two was more due to timing in the morning than anything. (I was at work so might not have been exact timing, but I know each time i would check back there would be one post from hoops and one from spleen each time in response , as well as fouts who was taking an entirely different angle).

I still dont understand why you are pushing spleen on me trying to get me to give you reasons why he is bad. If I had to choose, I think you are more likely to be a zombie than him. I think there are a few people I find more likely to be a zombie than spleen perhaps right now. He's just up there on my distrust list.

The only thing I have said negative about spleen today I think was I found it funny someone with 28 posts was pushing for people who are UtR and going after someone with 1/3 more posts than him.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm trying to understand Spleen as a candidate for my vote today.

He could have found your theory to be bunk because of potential impact on Fouts, not on Cronin.

Who would have a good reason to be certain your theory was bunk on Day 2? Well, Police Chief would be one. Someone who had scanned one of the two parties and knew their faction? But he was faulting your theory before Chubby sent PMs (post #423).

Spleen is not the Chief - there would have been an opportunity for him to turn the Day 3 vote when he put his in if he came out loudly.

I'm of a strong suspicion that he is not a vanilla STARS. There is a drastic change in his style of play. He has alluded to a "strategy" that there is no vision of executing. He is calling out UTR players when he has been more UTR than most (based on posts and change in style of play). If I was voting right now, he would have my vote.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, based on your distrust list you think I'm more likely to be a Zombie than anyone left in the game. So saying you suspect me more than Spleen isn't exactly new ground.

That said, I would like to come up with a good lynch today. If you would like to be part of the process - as the guy who is the closest to being cleared in my mind - I would like the company, no matter how annoyed I am with you for the last couple of days.

[hoopsguy]

I really think it would be easier for me to advocate lynching you rather than working with you if I was a Zombie, Alan. If I was Umbrella, would I have pushed for Lathum on Day 2 when there was an early showdown with you versus Cronin?

At some point, please re-check your assumptions this game. You know now that you were unduly stubborn on Days 2 and 3, to the detriment of your team (if you are STARS).

Also, for what it is worth, I believe that there is a Police Chief in the game even if the voting records are total crap.

[BrianD]

Hoops, if you think Spleen is worth voting for, you should probably vote for him. You can always change your vote later, but if you want to shake something out of him, you have to give him (and his team) reason to fear.

Having said that, I'll do a little of my own pushing and again...

Vote LoneStarGirl

[Alan T]

Alan, based on your distrust list you think I'm more likely to be a Zombie than anyone left in the game. So saying you suspect me more than Spleen isn't exactly new ground.

That said, I would like to come up with a good lynch today. If you would like to be part of the process - as the guy who is the closest to being cleared in my mind - I would like the company, no matter how annoyed I am with you for the last couple of days.

Well I am particpating in the conversation :) I've given my thoughts on people including in some cases detailed reasons why.

I am going outside with the girls in about 30-40 minutes for an hour or two but will be back on and off after 6 till the rest of the evening.

I don't have a huge problem going after Spleen, I just think your logic earlier of saying that because he voted for Cronin at one point and voted for me at one point that necessarily makes him bad. My reasons for distrusting spleen right now aren't necessarily enough for me to feel ready to come out and vote for him without someone else giving me more reasons to. But he is on my short list of people probably.

One other unrelated note, I found it interesting that a little bit ago you started to accept that I might be good but wanted to wait for others to check in to make sure no one outs me as something bad. Now it seems like its a foregone conclusion for you even without some people having checked in with the opportunity to put out thoughts about me. The distrustful part of my brain makes me feel you knew all along I was not a zombie, and you're just playing it out for the crowd now as it unfolds.

[Alan T]

I really think it would be easier for me to advocate lynching you rather than working with you if I was a Zombie, Alan. If I was Umbrella, would I have pushed for Lathum on Day 2 when there was an early showdown with you versus Cronin?

At some point, please re-check your assumptions this game. You know now that you were unduly stubborn on Days 2 and 3, to the detriment of your team (if you are STARS).

Also, for what it is worth, I believe that there is a Police Chief in the game even if the voting records are total crap.

If you were a zombie, why would you want to try to advocate lynching me when I've been doing all of the work for you pushing people in the wrong direction?

From my experience very vocal people are kept around if:

1) They are pushing people the wrong direction.
2) They are dead right about someone who is bad and killing them might be suspicious.
3) They are bad themselves.

I know #3 is not true, #1 obviously was to some extent. I guess only time will tell about #2.

I actually am always rechecking my assumptions though. :)

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I think Dodgerchick is the only person who has not checked in at this point, other than to say she was catching up. I'm positive she is not the Chief and have little reason to believe that Anxiety was Internal Affairs unless it includes missing putting in orders while sick.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if I was a Zombie I would thank you for your effort so far this game and get you off the chess board before you could redeem yourself. And then ride you mercilessly for a few months about this game.

None of the above are happening as I'm trying to get a STARS win here.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE SPLEEN

[Alan T]

Going out to the park for a bit. Will be back to talk more in a few hours.

Right now I am not sure that you all are going the right approach when looking at UtR folks. I don't really have an issue with looking at spleen or LSG since I dont trust either of them, but right now it looks like everyone was perfectly happy with it being a contest today between Spleen v Lonestargirl and completely ignore the other UtR.

When looking for someone utr, I wouldn't only look at post counts or the run by attacks.. but also other behavioral patterns. If i had to choose which UtR person to go for today, I likely would look at the Fouts, Glengoyne, Sndvls connection moreso than these guys.

The past three days while we've been busy killing off our own team, these three have been content voting for each other and staying out of our way. It makes their voting patterns look better, keeps them out of people's bullseyes.

I would probably right now think about Glengoyne as he has been content to stay out of the lynch votes the last two days and has stayed on the same person the entire time without really pushing anyone else to consider sndvls.

A nice quick run by and throw away vote on the way out the door to obscurity.

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I show for votes as of Post #1470:
(2) LSG - spleen1015 (1400), BrianD (1464)
(2) Spleen - LSG (1448), Hoops (1469)
(1) Hoopsguy - Alan T (1387)

[hoopsguy]

MrW, what are your thoughts on BrianD? You put a vote on him on Day 2. Both of you guys are in the room right now for discussion.

Brian, I'm not sure I understand your analysis on the Infector earlier today. Was it just to highlight the idea that people are escaping without sufficient votes and discussion? Or was there a larger point there that I just missed?

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, I cast that vote for him because I didn't feel good about the Alan vs. st.cronin runoff, and I wasn't prepared to argue for my preferred candidate Lathum. I had no idea where he stood, and he had a vote from Fouts, so he was an adequate option.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

[BrianD]

MrW, what are your thoughts on BrianD? You put a vote on him on Day 2. Both of you guys are in the room right now for discussion.

Brian, I'm not sure I understand your analysis on the Infector earlier today. Was it just to highlight the idea that people are escaping without sufficient votes and discussion? Or was there a larger point there that I just missed?

My point was that we were spending so much time on the few vocal people that we were missing any shot of hitting the infector. I believed the infector was hiding UTR and I wanted to show why I thought our current list of characters wasn't going to get us where we wanted to go. I don't know who the infector is, but I thought we were far away from finding him/her.

[Fouts]

Interesting discussion today. I like the idea of getting the UtR people to talk. I think LSG is playing her normal regular villager game, just like last game. I'm not sure about spleen, yet.

[hoopsguy]

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

Care to expand on this thought?

[BrianD]

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

We have not alligned. I've got Spleen listed at the same suspicion level as LSG. I voted LSG yesterday, so I stayed with her today. I wouldn't mind seeing a run-off between the two in the hopes that a number of UTR people will have to surface.

[hoopsguy]

Has anyone else claimed to be "vanilla STARS" besides Alan, LSG, and Spleen?

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I have claimed to be STARS but never said a word, one way or the other, about being vanilla.

[Fouts]

FWIW, I have claimed to be STARS but never said a word, one way or the other, about being vanilla.

I guess it would depend on how many stars we have left. Starting to get hard to believe all those claiming to be STARS.

[hoopsguy]

Obviously it is easier to bluff at a non-role as well, since you are likely to get called down by someone with a role. But with the number of non-specials we have seen die already it does beg the question of how many are left.

[Fouts]

We're down to 12 players. How many would you think are STARS? 6?

The problem might be that the important STARS roles might be claiming regular STARS roles for cover.

[Alan T]

Obviously it is easier to bluff at a non-role as well, since you are likely to get called down by someone with a role. But with the number of non-specials we have seen die already it does beg the question of how many are left.

It really depends on how many of the stars roles aren't actually in the game. Thats why I was wondering about that earlier. I did some quick math, and the more I think about this the more i think we underestimated the good guys to start. I think 12 Stars is a safe star, 13 is possible. We have had 5 vanilla stars and 1 roled stars die.

My guess is there are ~6 stars left. possibly 7. Of those, there probably are 2-3 vanilla stars left and 2ish that have roles who would declare they are vanilla stars. Thats why after thinking about it, I didn't push LSG or Spleen any further about them claiming to be Vanilla Stars. Even knowing I am vanilla, there still is arguement room for 2-3 more people who are vanilla or roled stars claiming to be vanilla.

Unvote Hoopsguy
vote Sndvls

I'll try this out for a bit. Deciding to go for one of the utr people, the one who used faulty logic to vote for me (while voting for me wasnt necessarily bad, the logic he used was) and he is involved in that little voting triangle between Sndvls, Glengoyne and Fouts from the past few days.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls is another guy who has avoided voting for Cronin for the last two days. Alan on Day 2, Glen on Day 3. This is a data point I'm not sure how to evaluate but it has shaped my thinking.

It is also a contributing factor on why I went with Spleen over LSG with my vote at this point.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Care to expand on this thought?
Two votes for LSG, from Brian and spleen. Nothing more than that.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I guess I'm in a mode where I'm hoping someone has new thoughts or is willing to take some leadership in where we should go today. Right now our voting still feels pretty whimsical (mine included).

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't mind my voting choices today -- actually, I think they're rather interesting -- but I'm a little worried about who I align myself with by voting particular ways. There's Alan, who I think is Umbrella, voting Sndvls. There's hoops, who's still up in the air for me, with LSG on spleen. And there's BrianD and spleen on LSG.

I've got a Halloween shindig to go to right now, and I don't know if I'll be back before the deadline.

VOTE LoneStarGirl

(FWIW, I think hoops is probably OK, but the possible conversion worries me.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I think we're working off of very limited info right now; we've got several lynch votes, but two of them involved villagers (much less revealing, typically, than votes involving baddies) and the other was Umbrella rather than zombies.

[Chief Rum]

As I stated earlier, I like the UTR approach (although I admit I expected to draw more heat myself). The main candidates being discussed right now seem to be spleen, LSG and SnDvls. I have my suspicions about all of them, but this isn't the first time SnDvls has come up on the radar, whereas spleen and LSG have largely stayed clear of suspicion up to now.

So I am going to follow Alan's logic and go with SnDvls. Plus, if he turns up bad, we can explore the Fouts-Glen end of things, since they may be linked to SnDvls and have come under suspicion themselves.

I really find it unlikely we won't find at least one bad guy amongst those three.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah...

VOTE SNDVLS

[Fouts]

As I stated earlier, I like the UTR approach (although I admit I expected to draw more heat myself). The main candidates being discussed right now seem to be spleen, LSG and SnDvls. I have my suspicions about all of them, but this isn't the first time SnDvls has come up on the radar, whereas spleen and LSG have largely stayed clear of suspicion up to now.

So I am going to follow Alan's logic and go with SnDvls. Plus, if he turns up bad, we can explore the Fouts-Glen end of things, since they may be linked to SnDvls and have come under suspicion themselves.

I really find it unlikely we won't find at least one bad guy amongst those three.

Huh? I have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for the last 2 days. How does that link me to him?

[Glengoyne]

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

Catching up.

I like this post:)

[hoopsguy]

I find it very unlikely that Fouts and Glen are on the same faction. People who can PM each other will attempt to avoid being linked to each other with votes. Both Fouts and Glen have voted for SnDvls the last two days.

[Fouts]

I find it very unlikely that Fouts and Glen are on the same faction. People who can PM each other will attempt to avoid being linked to each other with votes. Both Fouts and Glen have voted for SnDvls the last two days.

Ok, then. What faction are we? Would you put all 3 of us on different factions?

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I don't know what faction any of you are in. But the only faction that would make sense for you to both be in would be STARS and I'm having a tough time believing that.

Best case is that neither of you guys are Zombies and have been voting for a Zombie the last two days.

[spleen1015]

Spleen if i highlighted all the dumbass stuff you said I'd be here all day. But I choose not to dwell on stuff that is insignificant to the game. It seems you are trying to take attention off yourself.

Unvote SNDVLS

Vote Spleen1015

The only dumbass thing you've done is assume I was voting because you are woman. If that were the case, I would have been voting for you every single day of every single game I've played with you.

It was a really dumb thing to say. If you have a problem with me saying that, then make smarter decisions.

I'm done now. The funny thing about it all is everyone thinks this a going to tell them something and it's not going to tell them jack shit because our argument has nothing to do with the game, really just poor assumptions.

UNVOTE LoneStarGirl
VOTE SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

Huh? I have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for the last 2 days. How does that link me to him?

I went off of what Alan wrote about that, linking you three. I was going to go back to review what he felt the connection was, but haven't done so yet. I was more suspicious of SnDvls than either of you, and he has been UTR, which is why he got the vote.

If Alan can put up a synopsis for why he sees a connection there, it would save me some time, but if he doesn't I will just be looking into it at my own pace.

BTW, if you have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for two days, why is it just Alan and myself on him in the current votes?

[hoopsguy]

Following the "identical votes" concept, Chief has voted for the same candidates I have all three days. Each of these (Bullet/Lathum/Cronin) has been the person who has been lynched.

I'm not sure what to make of this, compared to the Glen/Fouts, because SnDvls was a minority candidate in each case. Also, Chief has been putting his votes in near the deadline on all three nights. Two of them were done deals, with the only questionable one being around Lathum.

Drilling into the Chief vote, he did vote for Cronin (STARS) initially to create a tie before moving away from it to vote for Lathum (Umbrella) after being warned about vote reprecussions for creating a tie (by Alan). Is that enough to suspect Chief as Umbrella? I'm not sure how interesting that question is if we are hunting Zombies. If Rum was Zombie he didn't give a damn about the vote between an Umbrella/STARS.

[Alan T]

Ok, everyone needs to stop the whole I'm just going with Alan says thing. Its a cop-out regardless if you are good or bad. If something i say triggers a likely scenerio that makes sense, then go back and look it up yourself to see if you agree or not.

If you vote for sndvls its because its something you believe, not because Alan said so :)

To answer why i grouped the three was just because the last 2 days, the three have consistantly been in a group voting pattern avoiding all of the other lynch votes, which sometimes is a ploy that is used to make your voting look better and not draw suspicion.

Day2 Sndvls voted me, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls
Day3 Sndvls voted Glen, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls.

I was leaning to voting Glen and changed my mind going with Sndvls instead. I really could have gone either way, but this triangle voting pattern was more interesting to me than the current LSG vs Spleen debate.