Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[path12]

Like I said this morning to Anxiety, my default reaction is to become suspicious when someone buddies up to me. You can agree or disagree with my theories and provide your reasons why, but I find someone coming out and saying "I think Alan T is swell" without many other reasons very suspicious.

I still remember how well you played Blade that time by agreeing with him. :)

[path12]

These are all very interesting points, but this is the point in most games where I think it makes the most sense to flush out the utr players. LSG, SnDvls, Anxiety ... anybody else?

And, yes, hoops does also make me nervous.

cronin, any thoughts about ntn? He's been very quiet.

[Alan T]

That's cool. It just seemed a little strong for so early in the game (that was day 1 I believe). We all know how WW sharpens the paranoia.....:)

I guess the only way I can put my point across is that there are multiple ways of presenting the same fact at times... How they come across gets read entirely different to me at times.

For instance right now my opinion is that you (path) and hoops share a fairly similar opinion on direction for today right now. The difference is Hoops subtly tried to misdirect everyone using slight of hand, while you came out and gave opinions without necessarily trying to direct the pack.

While you two might share opinions of where to go today, to me it feels like they are for different reasons. Does that mean I think you (path) are good? I don't know what I think of you right now, but you aren't on my list of immediate suspects. Could you be bad still? Sure you could. Just one way of presenting an idea gets me much more suspicious than another method of presenting it.

[st.cronin]

I would like to hear some comments on my utr approach. We have a lot of theories floating around, but as far as I can tell, none of them are really based on anything other than instinct. "You agree with me, therefore you are bad!" "You support somebody I think is good, therefore you are bad!" "Your opinion changed! You're a wolf!"

I am still interested in going after Alan T or hoopsguy, based on their early votes for bullet. I also realize that anybody who is unconvinced that I am a member of stars will not see the merit in such a play. Fouts intrigues me, based on Alan's theory from early yesterday (about the PC's vote).

[st.cronin]

cronin, any thoughts about ntn? He's been very quiet.

I will not vote for him. I believe he is stars.

[Alan T]

I would like to hear some comments on my utr approach. We have a lot of theories floating around, but as far as I can tell, none of them are really based on anything other than instinct. "You agree with me, therefore you are bad!" "You support somebody I think is good, therefore you are bad!" "Your opinion changed! You're a wolf!"

I am still interested in going after Alan T or hoopsguy, based on their early votes for bullet. I also realize that anybody who is unconvinced that I am a member of stars will not see the merit in such a play. Fouts intrigues me, based on Alan's theory from early yesterday (about the PC's vote).

I personally think voting for someone utr will just leave a bunch of questions about a bunch of people hanging in the air for another day.

I think you either have to kill Fouts for association with Lathum,
Kill cronin for information on hoops, alan, and others
kill alan for information on hoops, cronin, fouts, and others.

I include myself in there because you have seen who I have been attacking, and my death would hopefully push people to go after cronin then. The only regret would be you chose to do it one day late. Since zombies can start converting tonight, I would rather kill Cronin today via lynch. But I understand that the most important thing is information to guide us beyond this lynch as well.

That is why yes I am included in the list of people I think would be good lynch targets today. Either way I don't buy the UtR approach and personally think its you hunting for a seer or the police chief to try to lynch them or make them reveal to save themselves from the lynch.

[BrianD]

I will not vote for him. I believe he is stars.

Why? He hasn't been around much to give much of a feeling.

[BrianD]

I personally think voting for someone utr will just leave a bunch of questions about a bunch of people hanging in the air for another day.

I think you either have to kill Fouts for association with Lathum,
Kill cronin for information on hoops, alan, and others
kill alan for information on hoops, cronin, fouts, and others.

I include myself in there because you have seen who I have been attacking, and my death would hopefully push people to go after cronin then. The only regret would be you chose to do it one day late. Since zombies can start converting tonight, I would rather kill Cronin today via lynch. But I understand that the most important thing is information to guide us beyond this lynch as well.

That is why yes I am included in the list of people I think would be good lynch targets today. Either way I don't buy the UtR approach and personally think its you hunting for a seer or the police chief to try to lynch them or make them reveal to save themselves from the lynch.

I'm not discounting this approach, but while it gives us some info on some people, it leaves the UTR people UTR. If we start pushing the UTR people out front, we mad add to the people that will give us information from a lynch. We can also look at how the current suspects deal with the UTR pressure. Just an alternative view.

[st.cronin]

I personally think voting for someone utr will just leave a bunch of questions about a bunch of people hanging in the air for another day.

I think you either have to kill Fouts for association with Lathum,
Kill cronin for information on hoops, alan, and others
kill alan for information on hoops, cronin, fouts, and others.

I include myself in there because you have seen who I have been attacking, and my death would hopefully push people to go after cronin then. The only regret would be you chose to do it one day late. Since zombies can start converting tonight, I would rather kill Cronin today via lynch. But I understand that the most important thing is information to guide us beyond this lynch as well.

That is why yes I am included in the list of people I think would be good lynch targets today. Either way I don't buy the UtR approach and personally think its you hunting for a seer or the police chief to try to lynch them or make them reveal to save themselves from the lynch.


I think this is the worst possible strategy for the stars. Let's kill off the people with opinions one at a time, and find out who's right. I will not be voting for you, or hoops. I could be convinced to vote for hoops, but not for this reason.

[st.cronin]

dola

last sentence should read "I could be convinced to vote for FOUTS."

[Alan T]

I'm not discounting this approach, but while it gives us some info on some people, it leaves the UTR people UTR. If we start pushing the UTR people out front, we mad add to the people that will give us information from a lynch. We can also look at how the current suspects deal with the UTR pressure. Just an alternative view.

Which I would think is possibly true on a day past day 3. But like I said before, I think its pretty important to try to get the infector before tonight. I dont really think today is a good day to be shooting blind at that attempt.

[st.cronin]

Why? He hasn't been around much to give much of a feeling.

Well, he's definitely given me a good feeling. I could be wrong, but without actually seeing him eat brains, he's in my cot.

[Alan T]

I think this is the worst possible strategy for the stars. Let's kill off the people with opinions one at a time, and find out who's right. I will not be voting for you, or hoops. I could be convinced to vote for hoops, but not for this reason.

I don't want to kill off people with opinions for the sake of having opinions. You keep using this as an excuse for why not to vote you, but my being after you has never been about that.

If people want to kill someone for the sake of having opinions, I would be the best choice :)

I personally think there have been plenty of decent opinions put out there by people. I think Tyrith was killed last night because he had been putting out good opinions yesterday even.

[st.cronin]

Which I would think is possibly true on a day past day 3. But like I said before, I think its pretty important to try to get the infector before tonight. I dont really think today is a good day to be shooting blind at that attempt.

What drives me crazy about this is that the infector is MOST likely to be utr. The infector's job is to survive to night 3. For the infector to be one of the out front players would be nuts.

[st.cronin]

I don't want to kill off people with opinions for the sake of having opinions. You keep using this as an excuse for why not to vote you, but my being after you has never been about that.

If people want to kill someone for the sake of having opinions, I would be the best choice :)

I personally think there have been plenty of decent opinions put out there by people. I think Tyrith was killed last night because he had been putting out good opinions yesterday even.

Ok, try to picture this: I'm stars. I think it's quite likely that you're stars. I think even YOU have to admit that's a possibility, that we're both stars. Today we lynch me. Tomorrow we lynch you. What have we learned? That lynching either one of us is a bad idea.

[Alan T]

Ok, try to picture this: I'm stars. I think it's quite likely that you're stars. I think even YOU have to admit that's a possibility, that we're both stars. Today we lynch me. Tomorrow we lynch you. What have we learned? That lynching either one of us is a bad idea.

I'm willing to take that risk :)

[BrianD]

Which I would think is possibly true on a day past day 3. But like I said before, I think its pretty important to try to get the infector before tonight. I dont really think today is a good day to be shooting blind at that attempt.

And you think one of the few people that are high on the radar is the infector? Judging by the back-and-forth we've had the past few days, I'd think that we have probably been looking at some bad guys, but there hasn't been an overly strong defense for anyone. We've got almost 11 hours before the deadline, maybe we can ferret out the infector. We are only shooting blind if we generate no discussion today. I could be convinced to vote for some of the current targets, but just to start things off.

Vote LoneStarGirl

[st.cronin]

I'm willing to take that risk :)

:(

[Alan T]

And you think one of the few people that are high on the radar is the infector? Judging by the back-and-forth we've had the past few days, I'd think that we have probably been looking at some bad guys, but there hasn't been an overly strong defense for anyone. We've got almost 11 hours before the deadline, maybe we can ferret out the infector. We are only shooting blind if we generate no discussion today. I could be convinced to vote for some of the current targets, but just to start things off.

Vote LoneStarGirl

Based on the moves some people have made, I would assume that if the infector was one of those that was targeted, he would be deemed important enough to try to save even if it meant possibly sacrificing one of their others.

[path12]

What drives me crazy about this is that the infector is MOST likely to be utr. The infector's job is to survive to night 3. For the infector to be one of the out front players would be nuts.

But which UTR? You named three, I added one that you don't think is bad for some reason, and there's probably at least a couple more out there that weren't named.

I agree completely that finding the infector should be our focus, but assuming you're right and it's someone who's played UTR, it's a one in seven or eight stab in the dark.

And we'll still have the whole Alan/cronin/hoops/Fouts elephant sitting in the middle of the room. And really, all of you are good enough players to brazen out a role like that by hiding in plain sight, so I don't think we can say with certainty that we're looking for a UTR player anyway.

[st.cronin]

Based on the moves some people have made, I would assume that if the infector was one of those that was targeted, he would be deemed important enough to try to save even if it meant possibly sacrificing one of their others.

This sounds like another one of your crazy theories.

[BrianD]

Based on the moves some people have made, I would assume that if the infector was one of those that was targeted, he would be deemed important enough to try to save even if it meant possibly sacrificing one of their others.

Are you saying that you think people have made moves which look like they are trying to save the infector?

I think it is likely that people would do that, but I haven't seen anything that look like an attempt...which is why I'm assuming the infector is still UTR.

[path12]

Based on the moves some people have made, I would assume that if the infector was one of those that was targeted, he would be deemed important enough to try to save even if it meant possibly sacrificing one of their others.


Alan, I agree with you. And I'm not sucking up. ;)

[Alan T]

This sounds like another one of your crazy theories.

So you don't think that the zombies would risk sacrificing another of their own in order to save the infector if needed?

Just from the roles on page 1, it seemed like an important enough role to do that with.

[BrianD]

But which UTR? You named three, I added one that you don't think is bad for some reason, and there's probably at least a couple more out there that weren't named.

I agree completely that finding the infector should be our focus, but assuming you're right and it's someone who's played UTR, it's a one in seven or eight stab in the dark.

And we'll still have the whole Alan/cronin/hoops/Fouts elephant sitting in the middle of the room. And really, all of you are good enough players to brazen out a role like that by hiding in plain sight, so I don't think we can say with certainty that we're looking for a UTR player anyway.

It is not a certainty by any means, but I think it is a reasonable option. Again, we have time to dig for information. We can always fall back to the elephant later if we don't see anything we like.

[Alan T]

Are you saying that you think people have made moves which look like they are trying to save the infector?

I think it is likely that people would do that, but I haven't seen anything that look like an attempt...which is why I'm assuming the infector is still UTR.

Well so far I have seen two moves which to me felt like an attempt to "save" someone. First move yesterday when I noticed Lathum's behavior in correlation to fouts which is why I still link them together.

Second time was this morning Hoops trying to subtly point the direction of conversation anywhere other than St.Cronin by misrepresenting facts, and after going back and forth some on it for a bit, disappearing from the conversation I guess to try to redistance himself once the move didn't work.

I can't imagine a STARS member putting themselves on the line for another STARS member without knowledge for sure the way they both did.

[st.cronin]

But which UTR? You named three, I added one that you don't think is bad for some reason, and there's probably at least a couple more out there that weren't named.

I agree completely that finding the infector should be our focus, but assuming you're right and it's someone who's played UTR, it's a one in seven or eight stab in the dark.

And we'll still have the whole Alan/cronin/hoops/Fouts elephant sitting in the middle of the room. And really, all of you are good enough players to brazen out a role like that by hiding in plain sight, so I don't think we can say with certainty that we're looking for a UTR player anyway.

Let's look at those four players. What exactly is the argument against each one of them? The only one of those players with any kind of evidence is FOUTS - for reasons Alan laid out yesterday. And, by the way, ALAN, if you accept that theory the way you laid it out, I should be fully cleared as a member of Stars. Go look at the votes from day 1 and day 2. It's right there for you.

[Alan T]

Let's look at those four players. What exactly is the argument against each one of them? The only one of those players with any kind of evidence is FOUTS - for reasons Alan laid out yesterday. And, by the way, ALAN, if you accept that theory the way you laid it out, I should be fully cleared as a member of Stars. Go look at the votes from day 1 and day 2. It's right there for you.

I made that mistake with my initial theory, and even came out and said if fouts was bad, that I felt it cleared you and hoops. I then realized I made an err in possibilities and that his good or badness didn't have any impact on our perception of your allegiance.

[st.cronin]

Well so far I have seen two moves which to me felt like an attempt to "save" someone. First move yesterday when I noticed Lathum's behavior in correlation to fouts which is why I still link them together.

Second time was this morning Hoops trying to subtly point the direction of conversation anywhere other than St.Cronin by misrepresenting facts, and after going back and forth some on it for a bit, disappearing from the conversation I guess to try to redistance himself once the move didn't work.

I can't imagine a STARS member putting themselves on the line for another STARS member without knowledge for sure the way they both did.

You keep talking about this Lathum-Fouts connection, but I do not see it. Even if it's there, doesn't that make Fouts UMBRELLA? Therefore we do not want to lynch him today.

[BrianD]

Well so far I have seen two moves which to me felt like an attempt to "save" someone. First move yesterday when I noticed Lathum's behavior in correlation to fouts which is why I still link them together.

Second time was this morning Hoops trying to subtly point the direction of conversation anywhere other than St.Cronin by misrepresenting facts, and after going back and forth some on it for a bit, disappearing from the conversation I guess to try to redistance himself once the move didn't work.

I can't imagine a STARS member putting themselves on the line for another STARS member without knowledge for sure the way they both did.

By this logic, it would be pointless to vote for Fouts. If he is the infector, Lathum wouldn't know about it and wouldn't have protected him.

[Alan T]

You keep talking about this Lathum-Fouts connection, but I do not see it. Even if it's there, doesn't that make Fouts UMBRELLA? Therefore we do not want to lynch him today.

exactly the reason I voted you instead. I laid out my reasons for that this morning very clearly.

[hoopsguy]

I'm coming at this the same way as Cronin is - I have not given up hope that the three of us (Cronin, Alan, and me) are all STARS, but I think Alan is wrong on his analysis of Day 1 and is being really stubborn in sticking with that analysis. For someone who says they are willing to re-examine their positions, why is he so insistent on this point?

I would be willing to take a position where we try to come up with a mutually acceptable candidate if people want to try and go that direction. But assuming neither of you is the Chief - both have asserted to be, neither of you trust me, so I think this is a safe assumption - we have to make sure that there is not a runaway vote on one choice without really compelling evidence. I think we didn't give the Chief a safe place to put his vote on Day 1, so we lost a day there.

[st.cronin]

I made that mistake with my initial theory, and even came out and said if fouts was bad, that I felt it cleared you and hoops. I then realized I made an err in possibilities and that his good or badness didn't have any impact on our perception of your allegiance.

Well what exactly is the argument against me? Who was it that highlighted Lathum as a possible suspect ON DAY 1?????

[Alan T]

By this logic, it would be pointless to vote for Fouts. If he is the infector, Lathum wouldn't know about it and wouldn't have protected him.

Right, which is why I went with St.cronin today instead. Like I said this morning, it feels to me a higher percentage chance of getting a non-STARS by voting for fouts, but I'm not sure its the best reward.

based on risk/reward I felt cronin was the best play and thus my vote.

[Alan T]

I'm coming at this the same way as Cronin is - I have not given up hope that the three of us (Cronin, Alan, and me) are all STARS, but I think Alan is wrong on his analysis of Day 1 and is being really stubborn in sticking with that analysis. For someone who says they are willing to re-examine their positions, why is he so insistent on this point?

I would be willing to take a position where we try to come up with a mutually acceptable candidate if people want to try and go that direction. But assuming neither of you is the Chief - both have asserted to be, neither of you trust me, so I think this is a safe assumption - we have to make sure that there is not a runaway vote on one choice without really compelling evidence. I think we didn't give the Chief a safe place to put his vote on Day 1, so we lost a day there.

I don't think this statement is exactly fair. I've been participating in other's opinions or points on things all morning. We've talked about many different people, but as of yet I haven't seen anything to me that feels like a better play today. That does not mean that I am not open for people's thoughts. By all means convince me.

What I don't accept though is misrepresentations or what I feel are shady plays.

[hoopsguy]

Other thoughts on posts I have read:

- we should not sell out today in an attempt to get the Infector. I think priority #1 is getting a good lynch. Getting the Infector would be gravy
- I also felt like there was reason to make a Fouts/Lathum connection at the start of yesterday based on Lathum's early morning play
- UTR players should include Anxiety and Spleen

Alan, you will never see me run away from the board in the middle of a discussion. Give me a break :rolleyes:

[BrianD]

Right, which is why I went with St.cronin today instead. Like I said this morning, it feels to me a higher percentage chance of getting a non-STARS by voting for fouts, but I'm not sure its the best reward.

based on risk/reward I felt cronin was the best play and thus my vote.

This I can see. I voted for st.cronin yesterday so you know I don't have a probleml with this line of thinking. My thought was that while he may be a zombie, Hoops soft-of coming out for him today didn't seem like an infector saving move. If that was his intention, I would have expected him to do it yesterday.

[st.cronin]

I'm coming at this the same way as Cronin is - I have not given up hope that the three of us (Cronin, Alan, and me) are all STARS, but I think Alan is wrong on his analysis of Day 1 and is being really stubborn in sticking with that analysis. For someone who says they are willing to re-examine their positions, why is he so insistent on this point?

I would be willing to take a position where we try to come up with a mutually acceptable candidate if people want to try and go that direction. But assuming neither of you is the Chief - both have asserted to be, neither of you trust me, so I think this is a safe assumption - we have to make sure that there is not a runaway vote on one choice without really compelling evidence. I think we didn't give the Chief a safe place to put his vote on Day 1, so we lost a day there.

I don't have any feel for you, but I think it is HIGHLY likely that Alan is stars, and in the event I get lynched, I encourage people not to lynch him. I do encourage to stop listening to him, though, because he is way misguided.

My candidate for today is Anxiety.

[Alan T]

Well what exactly is the argument against me? Who was it that highlighted Lathum as a possible suspect ON DAY 1?????

You originally popped onto my radar when I was asking people to clarify their points on things, or give reasons why they felt as they did about things. Several times on day 1 you refused to respond to questions, avoided questions.

Going into day 2, I wasn't entirely sure about you, went back and forth alot in my head on you vs fouts, but when you gave the line trying to subtly put into people's head that you might be the police chief when I know you aren't it sealed the deal for me.

On day 3, Hoop's maneuvers makes me think that not only are you a zombie, but you are a pretty important zombie worth saving if possible. And so far today people really are so scattered about in opinions that he might have succeeded.

[st.cronin]

- I also felt like there was reason to make a Fouts/Lathum connection at the start of yesterday based on Lathum's early morning play


Can you explain this to me? I have not seen it when Alan puts it out.

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets see how this plays out, Alan.

1. Do you think we absolutely go after a zombie today even if it substantially increases our risk of lynching someone on STARS?
2. If you accept the notion that Cronin is good, does that absolutely mean that Fouts is bad in your book? If so, what does this say to you about NTN, who was the person who voted for Fouts on Day 1 and Lathum on Day 2?

[Alan T]

Can you explain this to me? I have not seen it when Alan puts it out.

When I brought out my Fouts v Cronin thoughts yesterday I didnt say which direction I was going to go, but I think I remember hinting that I was leaning to Fouts at the time. Lathum came out very strong blasting me and the idea and saying i was crazy for it.

I then decided to vote for you just to see if I could get any feel from your side of things and Lathum almost instantly voted for you and stopped giving me a hard time.

Is it 100%? no, but its pretty darn convincing in my mind.

[path12]

My candidate for today is Anxiety.

Is it just because he voted for you twice? Because I don't see that as a valid reason for me to go in that direction. I understand if you know you are good that it is valid for you, but I'll need more than that.

[Alan T]

OK, lets see how this plays out, Alan.

1. Do you think we absolutely go after a zombie today even if it substantially increases our risk of lynching someone on STARS?
2. If you accept the notion that Cronin is good, does that absolutely mean that Fouts is bad in your book? If so, what does this say to you about NTN, who was the person who voted for Fouts on Day 1 and Lathum on Day 2?

I think my answer to #1 was already stated several times, and by the nature of my vote I think its more important to try to target a zombie before a conversion happens tonight. After tonight perhaps its better to go with safer plays, Im not sure.

As for #2, I'm not sure I can accept that notion at this point, if Cronin is good and Fouts is bad by some sense of the word, I won't say what I feel about ntn at that point. If I understand what you are alluding to, then no I don't find it convinced that I know what Ntn's role is and I have a few people who i think it could be in a certain role.

[st.cronin]

You originally popped onto my radar when I was asking people to clarify their points on things, or give reasons why they felt as they did about things. Several times on day 1 you refused to respond to questions, avoided questions.

Going into day 2, I wasn't entirely sure about you, went back and forth alot in my head on you vs fouts, but when you gave the line trying to subtly put into people's head that you might be the police chief when I know you aren't it sealed the deal for me.

On day 3, Hoop's maneuvers makes me think that not only are you a zombie, but you are a pretty important zombie worth saving if possible. And so far today people really are so scattered about in opinions that he might have succeeded.

Good god, you are STILL deliberately trying to misunderstand me. There was not a single question on day 1 that I did not answer. And what I said on day 2 was that there was 1 candidate that EVERYBODY knew was not the police chief. Then you accused me of trying to claim police chief, and I had a meltdown because you were being so obstinate.

And now you think that hoops and I are zombies, because hoops thinks I'm stars.

You really need to reexamine everything you think about this game, because so far you are wrong about everything.

[SnDvls]

ooc: Alan sorry I didn't mean to upset you with my vote in what I said I just really didn't notice you for about 2 hours when it was tied 4-4, I see you have now said it was on your trip home. I had some home things come up that prevented me from getting back on up until now. end OOC.

in game: I felt yesterday St.C's self vote was very indective of a frustrated STARS player as I had done the same in the past. I also felt the tie needed to be broken to help move the discussion forward and push others to make a move. I had to choose the lesser of two evils in the St. C / Alan runoff with nothing else really to go on.
From the looks of it some people did finally step up and we got an umbrella member, helps the zombies in eliminated another person to get to their 1:1 ratio, but doesn't really give us any leads.
I should be logged in most of today until I leave work so It will be like yesterday in that I'll have a vote, but be stuck with it as my final say.

[path12]

On day 3, Hoop's maneuvers makes me think that not only are you a zombie, but you are a pretty important zombie worth saving if possible. And so far today people really are so scattered about in opinions that he might have succeeded.

Are you saying then that cronin and hoops are both zombies? Because I just don't see that at all.

[hoopsguy]

Near the end of Night 1 Alan positions his Cronin vs Fouts for Day 2 lynch decision theory. Lathum argues with Alan for awhile, then drops this little beauty.

I've seen this game from AlanT before and I don't trust him one bit. My vote was for St.Cronin yesterday and I am sticking with it today but IF he is lynched AND he comes up good I am all over AlanT tomorrow.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

So he is voting for Cronin because Cronin was his vote yesterday (well, technically I was until he changed ships to jump in the two horse race, but I digress). But if Lathum's vote is wrong for each of the first two days, it is Alan's fault. Notice how he neatly steps away from Fouts in the way that he frames this.

Alan was wrong for putting out a theory of vote one or the other - why? Well, if Lathum knows Fouts is Umbrella then he does not want a 50/50 runoff on his teammate. So, don't acknowledge the candidate that is your teammate and scream at the person putting out the theory loud enough to distract people from coming back around on Fouts the next day.

Do I buy this? Not sure - it has not entirely left my head.

[Alan T]

Good god, you are STILL deliberately trying to misunderstand me. There was not a single question on day 1 that I did not answer. And what I said on day 2 was that there was 1 candidate that EVERYBODY knew was not the police chief. Then you accused me of trying to claim police chief, and I had a meltdown because you were being so obstinate.

And now you think that hoops and I are zombies, because hoops thinks I'm stars.

You really need to reexamine everything you think about this game, because so far you are wrong about everything.

If you want, i can go back to day 1 and pull up the various posts I asked that didnt get answered that day. Some of the questions were answered in later days, but I was very frustrated with you day 1 because you kept avoiding questions, and the ONLY reason I didnt end up voting for you was to give you time and a chance since you were someone I valued enough to give you a little time. I even came out and said day 1 I felt i was giving you a very broad latitude that you were abusing, to which you didnt respond either.

[st.cronin]

Is it just because he voted for you twice? Because I don't see that as a valid reason for me to go in that direction. I understand if you know you are good that it is valid for you, but I'll need more than that.

Mostly that, yes. I just don't see anything else to go on. I suppose there is some possibility that Fouts is umbrella.

[st.cronin]

If you want, i can go back to day 1 and pull up the various posts I asked that didnt get answered that day.

Yes, please do.

[Alan T]

Yes, please do.

Ok, it will take a bit.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, as long as you are committed to staying on Cronin today we are not going to agree on this vote. And, at some point, we are going to have to figure out what to do about that problem because if we are both STARS then I doubt the zombies are going to help us resolve our dispute.

As you have pointed out, tonight is the night that the zombies can convert. I have no interest in putting our day vote on someone I feel is more likely to be STARS than anyone else in the game (excluding me).

[st.cronin]

Things I know for sure:

AlanT is not the police chief.
Hoopsguy is not umbrella.

[Alan T]

Yes, please do.

My initial comment to you regarding my thoughts about you:

Well All I can say is I have been there before. I very rarely am a night kill by bad guys because usually the good guys find some reason to want to lynch me in the first few days. I talk alot in WW games, throw out alot of ideas (some of them better than others) and I want to encourage others to contribute with meaningful conversation.

If you are on my team or not, I do not know. You are however contributing to this discussion which for me is enough to want me to allow you a pass on day 1 until we have more information.

There was some going back and forth, but based on your moves, I decided to ask you this question to get your feelings for some other players (somewhat probing you just to see what I felt about you). You never responded to this question.

To be fair, the above quote Cronin meant leaving his vote on hoops not lathum as he wrote. Just clearing that up before this gets viewed wrong...

Now with that said, lets take the three earliest voters (besides you)

Hoopsguy
Fouts
Alan T

If you chose to move off of Hoopsguy to another early voter, would it be either myself or Fouts? Would you prefer neither and to stick with Hoops if you had your choice of those three?

A later post, when I was a bit frustrated by you, and mentioned it, but you never responded to this either.

I didn't vote for you, but to be the devil's advocate, I stated my case on why your move didn't make much sense to me and as far as I saw I don't think I ever got back a response that made complete sense to me.

For me I feel I have been giving you a very large amount of latitude though since its day 1. If I were to vote for you today it wouldnt be because you tried to encourage strategic play, its because you were inconsistant between your theory and your move.


These are the posts I had numbered in my notepad file for "clues" for me to look back at in regards to you. I'm guessing there were more, but your lack of response is what got my interests initially.

[Alan T]

Alan, as long as you are committed to staying on Cronin today we are not going to agree on this vote. And, at some point, we are going to have to figure out what to do about that problem because if we are both STARS then I doubt the zombies are going to help us resolve our dispute.

As you have pointed out, tonight is the night that the zombies can convert. I have no interest in putting our day vote on someone I feel is more likely to be STARS than anyone else in the game (excluding me).

I didn't say my vote couldn't move. I said prove to me why someone else is more likely a zombie (which is different than proving that someone has a chance of not being stars which Im pretty sure Fouts isnt)

[Alan T]

Things I know for sure:

AlanT is not the police chief.
Hoopsguy is not umbrella.

How do you know for sure that Hoopsguy is not umbrella? I mean you could have thoughts or ideas to that, but knowing for sure?

[Lorena]

Damn, 22 pages and it's Day 2? Can you guys like slow down on the posting so I can take down notes? Geez... :rolleyes: :p :D

[st.cronin]

How do you know for sure that Hoopsguy is not umbrella? I mean you could have thoughts or ideas to that, but knowing for sure?

I think somebody needs to review the day 1 vote.

[BrianD]

I didn't say my vote couldn't move. I said prove to me why someone else is more likely a zombie (which is different than proving that someone has a chance of not being stars which Im pretty sure Fouts isnt)

This is the point we keep getting stuck on. There isn't really any proof for anyone else being a zombie. Not conclusive anyway. This is why I think we need to turn our attention to others and see what shakes out.

[st.cronin]

My initial comment to you regarding my thoughts about you:



There was some going back and forth, but based on your moves, I decided to ask you this question to get your feelings for some other players (somewhat probing you just to see what I felt about you). You never responded to this question.



A later post, when I was a bit frustrated by you, and mentioned it, but you never responded to this either.




These are the posts I had numbered in my notepad file for "clues" for me to look back at in regards to you. I'm guessing there were more, but your lack of response is what got my interests initially.

The first and third posts are not questions. Something like the second one was asked several times, and I thought I explained it like this: Basically, I didn't have any opinion on ANYBODY. The only thing I had to go on was who voted first.

[Alan T]

I think somebody needs to review the day 1 vote.

The fact that both you and Lathum voted hoops to start with?

You know as well as I do that day 1 votes are red herrings when involving team on team votes. Thats a fine time to place a vote for later proof to say well i couldnt be bad, so and so voted for me.

Just like Lathum's vote in my mind doesn't make me think its less likely that hoops is umbrella, your vote doesnt disassociate you and him in my mind either.

[Alan T]

The first and third posts are not questions. Something like the second one was asked several times, and I thought I explained it like this: Basically, I didn't have any opinion on ANYBODY. The only thing I had to go on was who voted first.

Actually you elaborated a bit on first vs early voters and such, and thats what led me to ask you that question about the early voters which you avoided. This topic doesn't help me much today so I'm not really too worried about getting the answer now, but you wanted to know the things that lead up to my distrust of you during day 1, so I was just showing how making statements then not responding to the follow up questions just didn't help things for you.

[st.cronin]

The fact that both you and Lathum voted hoops to start with?

You know as well as I do that day 1 votes are red herrings when involving team on team votes. Thats a fine time to place a vote for later proof to say well i couldnt be bad, so and so voted for me.

Just like Lathum's vote in my mind doesn't make me think its less likely that hoops is umbrella, your vote doesnt disassociate you and him in my mind either.

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

[st.cronin]

Actually you elaborated a bit on first vs early voters and such, and thats what led me to ask you that question about the early voters which you avoided. This topic doesn't help me much today so I'm not really too worried about getting the answer now, but you wanted to know the things that lead up to my distrust of you during day 1, so I was just showing how making statements then not responding to the follow up questions just didn't help things for you.

No, I wanted you so stop saying that I was being evasive and not answering questions. I have been completely upfront about my strategic thinking since day 1.

[Alan T]

No, I wanted you so stop saying that I was being evasive and not answering questions. I have been completely upfront about my strategic thinking since day 1.

No, you asked for my reasons for voting you. I gave them to you based on my feelings based day by day. You then argued that you hadn't evaded my questions and asked me to show you what posts made me feel that way. So i did. :)

[Alan T]

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

I guess I just like a challenge for myself :)

[st.cronin]

No, you asked for my reasons for voting you. I gave them to you based on my feelings based day by day. You then argued that you hadn't evaded my questions and asked me to show you what posts made me feel that way. So i did. :)

If that's the best you came up with, then clearly I was not being evasive. Go back and reread day 1 with an open mind. I was getting questions from everybody.

I really think you are also stars, but you are really being obstinate.

[Tyrith]

Damn, 22 pages and it's Day 2? Can you guys like slow down on the posting so I can take down notes? Geez... :rolleyes: :p :D

This hasn't been as bad as Hoops last game (coincidentally the last game I played before SAW), but when we get talking... :)

[Alan T]

If that's the best you came up with, then clearly I was not being evasive. Go back and reread day 1 with an open mind. I was getting questions from everybody.

I really think you are also stars, but you are really being obstinate.

Keep in mind, I didn't vote for you despite being frustrated by you. It just put you on my radar. I told you the things that added to it in later days that more-cemented my feelings about you.

Like I said, I'm not closed minded, right now Im open to better suggestions with better proof. So far all I have heard though is campaigns that are as likely to lynch a seer or PC as they are to get a zombie, which is not a good plan in my mind.

I already have said what I think the best play for today is (including even my own lynching if people honestly trust you more than me at this point). But right now we have big links that we can learn more from upon deaths.

[st.cronin]

But right now we have big links that we can learn more from upon deaths.

This is where I think you're wrong. There is not one link that has been suggested that I consider credible. The closest, by far, is the Fouts-Lathum link, and I am unconvinced of what that means.

Let's say we lynch me today, and I turn up zombie. Does this make hoopsguy a zombie? Alan, even you have to admit that's far from ironclad. And if we lynch me and I turn up umbrella, what does that make hoopsguy? Or if we lynch me and I turn up stars, does that clear hoopsguy? All of your "links" are built out of paper.

[LoneStarGirl]

I have heard of two guys on the same side play fighting to make everybody think one is good one is evil....

It seems that is what st cronin and alant are doing right now.

[LoneStarGirl]

So i think i am giong to base my vote today on people who have been flying under the radar.

So could one of you fellows who obviously have way too much time on your hand put together a post count for those of us still alive? And you dont have to include cronin, anxiety, or hoops on it because you guys are hogging on posts.

[Alan T]

So i think i am giong to base my vote today on people who have been flying under the radar.

So could one of you fellows who obviously have way too much time on your hand put together a post count for those of us still alive? And you dont have to include cronin, anxiety, or hoops on it because you guys are hogging on posts.

On the Wereolf Games forum screen, if you click on the number of posts in the thread, it will break down number of posts by poster for you

[SnDvls]

I have heard of two guys on the same side play fighting to make everybody think one is good one is evil....

It seems that is what st cronin and alant are doing right now.

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

[Alan T]

This is where I think you're wrong. There is not one link that has been suggested that I consider credible. The closest, by far, is the Fouts-Lathum link, and I am unconvinced of what that means.

Let's say we lynch me today, and I turn up zombie. Does this make hoopsguy a zombie? Alan, even you have to admit that's far from ironclad. And if we lynch me and I turn up umbrella, what does that make hoopsguy? Or if we lynch me and I turn up stars, does that clear hoopsguy? All of your "links" are built out of paper.

Once again, I welcome something that is more definite right now. All I have heard so far is a good strategy to get our seers killed more than the zombies.

[Glengoyne]

Sure, here's the sequence:

Catching up, and I"ve gotten this far. For what it's worth, I had completely forgotten the above described exchange.

My vote for snDvls yesterday was somewhat motivated because I wasn't satisfied with voting for Cronin on the flyer that seeing how he "turns up" might give us information. I just don't feel comfortable lynching someone so lightly. I'm not opposed to lynching with little information so much in this game because of the three faction dynamic. Any Zombie/Umbrella lynch is helpful, and it is almost a 50/50 chance for a positive outcome for any lynch.

Back to snDvls. The problem I had with him was simply that he came out, piled on Alan (the leading lynch candidate), spouted something that was profoundly untrue, and vanished. My assessment was that he was piling on his presumed lynch target, giving a BS reason, and then walking away from the board. I'm not sure if this indicates that he was hiding(zombie moreso than umbrella) or just throwing his vote away to remain UTR. It was suspicious enough that it warranted a vote. The initial exchange linking he and Alan wasn't a factor.

[BrianD]

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

I think her point was that they are on the same side, not necessarily the STARS side.

[hoopsguy]

OK, still doesn't look like we have much movement from the principle participants in this dispute. By now just about everyone has checked in, so I'm going to take a look back at today's posts to see if I get a little guidance on how to proceed with the arguments today. I feel like that helped me a lot yesterday afternoon and hope it will do the same today.

[Abe Sargent]

Okay folks, I'm not feeling well. Nothing nasty, just sniffles, headache and sore throat. I'll trudge through today but if this game continues over the weekend, then I may have to jump ship.

[st.cronin]

I am in all likelihood out til after lynch. Afternoon class, and then tonight I am going to a hockey game.

[Alan T]

Catching up, and I"ve gotten this far. For what it's worth, I had completely forgotten the above described exchange.

My vote for snDvls yesterday was somewhat motivated because I wasn't satisfied with voting for Cronin on the flyer that seeing how he "turns up" might give us information. I just don't feel comfortable lynching someone so lightly. I'm not opposed to lynching with little information so much in this game because of the three faction dynamic. Any Zombie/Umbrella lynch is helpful, and it is almost a 50/50 chance for a positive outcome for any lynch.

Back to snDvls. The problem I had with him was simply that he came out, piled on Alan (the leading lynch candidate), spouted something that was profoundly untrue, and vanished. My assessment was that he was piling on his presumed lynch target, giving a BS reason, and then walking away from the board. I'm not sure if this indicates that he was hiding(zombie moreso than umbrella) or just throwing his vote away to remain UTR. It was suspicious enough that it warranted a vote. The initial exchange linking he and Alan wasn't a factor.

Since you are speaking about percentages with your 50/50 chance for positive lynch, I'll drop down what I feel the percentages are:

43% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie.
46% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie if picked by someone who truly is in STARS
36% chance of hitting valuable stars role.
21% chance of hitting a zombie.

My reasoning for these numbers is based on the amount of STARS night kills vs no umbrella kills, I think my original projection of 11 - 6 -3 might have been slightly off by one. These numbers assume a 12-5-2 start.

If you want to look at the percentages based on the 11-5-3 numbers still its:

50% chance of randomly getting umbrella or zombie
54% chance of getting umbrella or zombie if picked by someone truly STARS
36% chance of hitting valuable stars role.
21% chance of hitting a zombie.

You have seen me say several times today that this whole lets guess randomly at UTR folks idea is just a good way to hit our seers, this is why. There is a better chance of hitting an important STARS role than a zombie with the randomly attack UTR people strategy.

Also if the numbers are what I think they might be based on revised numbers, you only have a 7% better chance of hitting a bad guy than you do hitting a valuable stars role right now.

[saldana]

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

[BrianD]

You have seen me say several times today that this whole lets guess randomly at UTR folks idea is just a good way to hit our seers, this is why. There is a better chance of hitting an important STARS role than a zombie with the randomly attack UTR people strategy.


You keep saying this like people are suggesting guessing randomly. Nobody is suggesting that we guess randomly at UTR folks. People (like me) are suggesting we start putting some pressure on UTR folks and see what shakes out. I don't get this. There is no reason we can't pressure someone that is UTR and then vote for st.cronin, or Fouts, or whomever you are looking at. To not even bother looking at the others makes no sense...unless you have specific knowledge of how you compare to the people already being discussed.

[Tyrith]

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

We should go visit Chubby, you can beat on him with some Herbal Essences and I'll stab him with a fork.

[BrianD]

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

This pretty much sums up the game. :)

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm considering the risk/reward element you suggested earlier on Cronin.

1. The Chief does not want to tip his hand, but he knows if Cronin is STARS. I think this is our most important lynch yet and he will want to assert himself a little more today than earlier (gut feel, but I would hope it is true)
2. The other STARS role that scans for faction has had two opportunities to pick Cronin at this point for a scan. They should have the ability to force the issue on this one. I would have expected that person to come forward and support you with a vote if they had Cronin listed as a Zombie.

[Alan T]

You keep saying this like people are suggesting guessing randomly. Nobody is suggesting that we guess randomly at UTR folks. People (like me) are suggesting we start putting some pressure on UTR folks and see what shakes out. I don't get this. There is no reason we can't pressure someone that is UTR and then vote for st.cronin, or Fouts, or whomever you are looking at. To not even bother looking at the others makes no sense...unless you have specific knowledge of how you compare to the people already being discussed.

I have no problems pressuing people. Lord knows I've had pressure all game :) But difference between pressuring them and voting for people for just being UTR

[Alan T]

Alan, I'm considering the risk/reward element you suggested earlier on Cronin.

1. The Chief does not want to tip his hand, but he knows if Cronin is STARS. I think this is our most important lynch yet and he will want to assert himself a little more today than earlier (gut feel, but I would hope it is true)
2. The other STARS role that scans for faction has had two opportunities to pick Cronin at this point for a scan. They should have the ability to force the issue on this one. I would have expected that person to come forward and support you with a vote if they had Cronin listed as a Zombie.

If I am right on my hunches for who the possible PC's are, then I would rather be lynched today then for them to come out today. My lynch loses a villager but no important role. I just have the feeling I'm not wrong about Cronin.

I've thrown alot of stuff at you today to see how you would respond, but for me being as deadset in an idea as you say, you seem to be the same in the opposite direction.

[LoneStarGirl]

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

Why do you think cronin and alan are stars SNDVLS?

[Alan T]

In fact, I feel so strongly about the likelihood that Cronin is bad, that if he isn't I'll happily accept a lynching for it.

[SnDvls]

I think her point was that they are on the same side, not necessarily the STARS side.

hmmm. I must have missed something here then

[hoopsguy]

If I am right on my hunches for who the possible PC's are, then I would rather be lynched today then for them to come out today. My lynch loses a villager but no important role. I just have the feeling I'm not wrong about Cronin.

I've thrown alot of stuff at you today to see how you would respond, but for me being as deadset in an idea as you say, you seem to be the same in the opposite direction.

In fact, I feel so strongly about the likelihood that Cronin is bad, that if he isn't I'll happily accept a lynching for it.


Alan, I'm working on a new theory here that I want to do a little fact-checking (more like sanity checking) on - this will take me awhile to do. But if it comes up I'll back you on this vote today.

[SnDvls]

Why do you think cronin and alan are stars SNDVLS?

I'm not 100%, but I feel more strong on St. C.
His play yesterday and the self vote pushed me over the top into him being good.

[BrianD]

I'm not 100%, but I feel more strong on St. C.
His play yesterday and the self vote pushed me over the top into him being good.

I still think the self vote is more of a bad guy tactic, but maybe that is just me.

[BrianD]

I have no problems pressuing people. Lord knows I've had pressure all game :) But difference between pressuring them and voting for people for just being UTR

You do see though that a good way to put pressure on them is to vote for them, right? It doesn't have to be a final vote, but if it looks like it *could* be a final vote, that is pressure.

[SnDvls]

I still think the self vote is more of a bad guy tactic, but maybe that is just me.

that is where Tryith and I disagreed too. I thought it was just a frustration move is all.

I should also add that we know Lathum was bad and he voted for St. C 2 days in a row. I'd say it's a pretty risky move for an umbrella member to vote for one of their own for 2 straight days.

[BrianD]

that is where Tryith and I disagreed too. I thought it was just a frustration move is all.

I should also add that we know Lathum was bad and he voted for St. C 2 days in a row. I'd say it's a pretty risky move for an umbrella member to vote for one of their own for 2 straight days.

True, but I think the prevalent line of thought is that if st.cronin is bad, he is a zombie. That is why people are looking at him for today's vote...we need to get a zombie. Better if it is the infector.

[spleen1015]

I agree with the strategy of going after someone that is UTR.

I still believe that Alan is pushing too hard for st. cronin. Yesterday, it made me think he was a bad guy. Today, since he uis still at it, I think he is doing it because he is a good guy who really thinks st. cronin is bad. I don't think st. cronin is bad. Of the three, Alan/st. cronin/hoops, i would believe hoops was a bad guy before any of them. If he is, he's a zombie.

I agree that LSG looks suspicious, but I always think she is. It must be her style of play.

[hoopsguy]

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

[Alan T]

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

I'm not conning anyone. If Cronin ends up being Stars then I'll accept a lynching tommorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I'll be very pleased to not be conned. One way or another, I expect we'll come back to this in the post-game.

[Chubby]

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

:D

I would have liked to have been able to have more time to write out that post but I had to go to work at the asscrack of dawn this morning. :)

[Glengoyne]

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

I marked this post to respond to as I was catching up again. My take on this is that Lathum is one of those guys who makes this game hard.

I don't think that the day one vote in any way clears Hoops from being Umbrella. His vote for him the second day, is much more persuasive in that regard. Lathum's two early votes for Hoops is one of the more reassuring things I've come across, as far as actions that tend to place someone in my camp.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.

[Chubby]

At the moment...

(1) SnDVls - Fouts (935)
(2) St Cronin - Alan T (949), hoopsguy (1100)
(1) Fouts - Anxiety (979)
(1) Anxiety - St Cronin (987)
(1) Lonestargirl - BrianD (1017)

[Alan T]

Not many people voting or talking about stuff. I quieted up some to see what others had to say.. but people aren't pushing ideas for new people, trying to get UtR people to talk, analyzing the current suspects or anything...

[hoopsguy]

I know - I expected some questions about my change of direction. Not sure that I would have embarked on full disclosure but I'm a little concerned by how quiet it is, given the lack of votes in at the moment.

[Glengoyne]

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

This was NOT what I was expecting at the end of my catching up.

Up until this point I was thinking there was a strange pseudo CoT forming between you Three. I thought that possibly Hoops was trying to find common ground between Alan and Cronin, convince them they might both be stars, and then place himself into that circle through his role in forming it.

Now I don't know what is happening.

?

Earlier, I was leaning to trusting Hoops. I was seriously warming up to an Alan T vote. Then, when he came strong into both Cronin's and Alan's court, I started to have my doubts about him. Now I'm truly clueless.

[Alan T]

I know - I expected some questions about my change of direction. Not sure that I would have embarked on full disclosure but I'm a little concerned by how quiet it is, given the lack of votes in at the moment.

Im taking your switch with a grain of salt myself, but we've bashed back and forth most of the morning, so not sure what pushing more will do at this time :)

I would like to hear up from some of the others though who have been content to just follow along for the ride.

[Glengoyne]

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.

OK, OK. Thanks for clearing that up. I got confused. That is the problem with not devoting my entire attention to this game while at the office:D.

Now I have to unlearn my assumption.

[Alan T]

well time to head home from work. Hope more discussion is running when I get back tonight :)

[hoopsguy]

Alan, would you like me to publicly voice the reasons for my change or would you prefer that I just shut up and leave my vote where it is?

[BrianD]

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

[Glengoyne]

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.


Given that....I have a real issue with voting for Cronin today.

Yesterday I voted for snDvls, for the reasons I stated earlier. Piling on the current favorite for a lynch, and then making a statement I could clearly say was false along with his vote.

He addresses Alan's distrust, but completely ignores the fact that I voted for him yesterday. Like I'm going to forget it? That inaction strikes me just as suspicious as his action yesterday. I don't have any clue if I can trust Fouts or not, but I'm considering following him onto snDvls like he followed me yesterday.

snDvls. What's up?

---

I hate to ask that...and then depart, but I have a meeting I'm facilitating in two minutes. So I gotta go. I will be back. And I'm curious.

[Glengoyne]

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

I'm having trouble deciding what to do when two people you were starting to place in a circle of trust start to fall apart. Cronin and Hoops, in case anyone is paying attention to my ramblings.

[SnDvls]

nothing's up really. I didn't pile on anyone I broke a tie a 4-4 tie with 8 others still waiting to vote. I have no special knowledge just like most the other's on here. I waited yesterday to cast a vote until I had to. I could have thrown away a vote or put it on Alan or St. C. I have more trust in St. C so I chose the lesser of two evils.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, in terms of the change on Cronin - the data that I evaluated yesterday to help me with my decision on Lathum was proven to not be conclusive on casting Cronin as a STAR with Tyrith's death.

Mathematically, I believed that Cronin had less of a chance to be a Zombie than anyone else in the game. But that still meant he had a 15-20% chance of being a zombie. So I re-analyzed the voting records from Day 1, along with the play from the last day and a half. Without giving away what I believe is role information, I think that Cronin is going to show up as not STARS tonight. And I'm having a hard time linking him to Lathum, so I'm leaning towards him as a Zombie at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Note that Cronin was in a 5-5 tie on Day 1 and a 4-4 tie on Day 2 but was not lynched either time.

This, in and of itself, is not damning. Particularly when you consider he was going against an inactive villager on Day 1 and an Umbrella on Day 2. But when you combine it with the play of other participants in our game I reach the conclusion that this is significant.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, if I was looking to jump on a tide today I think it would have been a better strategy to just pick a tide, rather than raging against a guy early and then switching to him mid-day.

I'm doing my best to play the game as a villager (STARS). Take the information available, process it, make assumptions, act on the data, re-evaluate assumptions when there is reason to do so. Truth be told, it is kind of fun to do after a fairly long run of bad guy games (broken up only by a game with no frigging info).

[Fouts]

Ok, I agree with all of this. I don't think Lathum's vote will point to anybody as zombie/non-zombie. I do think it could help us find some umbrellas - these players did not vote to lynch Lathum: AlanT, Anxiety, BrianD, GlenGoyne, Saldana (RIP), Fouts, spleen, SnDvls. It wouldn't surprise me if all remaining umbrellas (2? 3? 4?) are in there. HOWEVER I don't think we want to be looking for umbrellas. I'm not just not sure how to look for zombies at this point.

Catching up, but I wanted to say its probably a good bet that the zombies would pile on Lathum. Something to think about later in the game.

[Fouts]

Well, he's definitely given me a good feeling. I could be wrong, but without actually seeing him eat brains, he's in my cot.

Whoa. NTN is in your cot? He's made what? 5 posts?

NTN voted for me.

You could be convinced to vote for me, and would include NTN in your cot.

Therefore, neither of you are STARS.

[Fouts]

And you think one of the few people that are high on the radar is the infector? Judging by the back-and-forth we've had the past few days, I'd think that we have probably been looking at some bad guys, but there hasn't been an overly strong defense for anyone. We've got almost 11 hours before the deadline, maybe we can ferret out the infector. We are only shooting blind if we generate no discussion today. I could be convinced to vote for some of the current targets, but just to start things off.

Vote LoneStarGirl

This vote make zero sense. I see nothing from LSG that makes her suspicious.

And adding a 5th suspect is crazy. I'm still watching you Brian.

[ntndeacon]

ok I am more confused than I was before today. At the beginning of the day iwas pretty sure, where iwas going to put my vote, as several of thier comments did not add up to me. but iam wavering on that now.

[Fouts]

Well so far I have seen two moves which to me felt like an attempt to "save" someone. First move yesterday when I noticed Lathum's behavior in correlation to fouts which is why I still link them together.


The problem with this thinking is - Lathum's role looks like the most important Umbrella role out there. For Lathum to make that move would be nuts.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, where were you going to vote and what confused you?

I'm waiting to see when Fouts gets caught up - kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, we don't have any understanding of the research role for Umbrella. So it is hard to say what is the most important role.

[SnDvls]

kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

agreed, but not quite as funny as the one time...don't know who it was schmidty I think....had been killed and was commenting on all the stuff for like 8 posts before he realized he was dead.

[hoopsguy]

Think it might have been marc vaughan during the first Spawn game. Good times.

[path12]

agreed, but not quite as funny as the one time...don't know who it was schmidty I think....had been killed and was commenting on all the stuff for like 8 posts before he realized he was dead.

I've done that before also.

I don't have a lot of time today, as I mentioned earlier I'm out of the office most of the day and have a function tonight. Frankly, a lot of the cronin/Alan arguments are just white noise at this point, I feel like they're just going in circles and sooner or later it becomes a blur. My sense has been that they're likely both good.

Now hoops' vote to cronin gives me pause. I also said this morning that out of the three he was the one I was most unsure of. So, hoops, give me a general idea of where to look for what caused your change of heart regarding cronin.

Truth be told at this point I'm happy to join along if for no other reason than to stop this whole alan/cronin bickering, which I think plays right into the bad guys hands. But I need to get a better idea of where hoops is coming from.

[Fouts]

One question I had - would the person being interrogated know they were interrogated?

[hoopsguy]

Path, here are a couple of things to look at:
1. Start with the lead-up to Day 2, where Alan posts his Lathum vs Fouts analysis
2. Look at the vote recaps from Day 2 with the idea that Cronin is a known bad guy
3. Read Day 3

I don't want to burn someone here by outing a (potential) role. But if you follow this process I think you will wind up in the same place where I was with my vote today.

And if I'm reading it wrong, leading to Cronin being lynched as STARS then I accept that I got worked and that I put our team in a very tough position the rest of the way.

[Fouts]

Whoa. NTN is in your cot? He's made what? 5 posts?

NTN voted for me.

You could be convinced to vote for me, and would include NTN in your cot.

Therefore, neither of you are STARS.

I have a strong feeling neither of you are STARS, but I suppose what it really means is neither of you are the PC.

[Fouts]

Glen, why did you coerce me onto SnDvls yesterday, but are hesitant to vote for him today?

[ntndeacon]

NTN, where were you going to vote and what confused you?

I'm waiting to see when Fouts gets caught up - kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

My vote was headed to Alan. His constant carping on his unimportance of his Stars role is my my reason. how many of those do we have?

[ntndeacon]

a question. do y'all think there are generic umbrella agents or are all of them named people?

[path12]

Path, here are a couple of things to look at:
1. Start with the lead-up to Day 2, where Alan posts his Lathum vs Fouts analysis
2. Look at the vote recaps from Day 2 with the idea that Cronin is a known bad guy
3. Read Day 3

I don't want to burn someone here by outing a (potential) role. But if you follow this process I think you will wind up in the same place where I was with my vote today.

And if I'm reading it wrong, leading to Cronin being lynched as STARS then I accept that I got worked and that I put our team in a very tough position the rest of the way.

OK, I wish I had more time to think this over but sometimes real life gets in the way.

I think I see where you're going with this, hoops. I'm not convinced it's correct, but I think we need some kind of resolution on this issue before we can move forward intelligently. I certainly don't have a better idea.

Vote st.cronin

So I'm out until later tonight. I hope this works.

[Alan T]

a question. do y'all think there are generic umbrella agents or are all of them named people?

I initially thought there were generic umbrella people, but as the game progressed I'm a bit less sure of that now.


I'm back , but have my girls this evening and then have to do a network change at 8pm, so going to be spotty on and off here tonight.

Hoops as far as spelling things out, I am guessing based on what you are saying you put some of the pieces together, but I am unsure if you have the whole picture. I'm pretty sure some things you are unaware of still.

If you are bad, then well this is unfortunate that you put it all together, but it was a matter of time. If you are good then well I'm glad you figured it out.

Either way, you now see my cerntainty of today's action and why I was onto Lathum -> Fouts early. Now lets just hope you aren't bad I guess.

(will respond to more if there is stuff addressed to me. trying to catch up)

[Alan T]

My vote was headed to Alan. His constant carping on his unimportance of his Stars role is my my reason. how many of those do we have?

If you feel I am the least trusted person left, then by all means vote for me. I'm the incorrect choice if you are good, or correct choice for vote if you're bad. However, all I ask is for you to give your reasons for it, for people to go back to look at later :)

[Alan T]

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

Yes, I'm guessing for the hoops switch, he either truthfully put the pieces together and is a good guy, or he realized finally the strength of my position and is selling out a team mate before the dam bursts on him. I'm guessing if he is a zombie and he figured it all out, that this is the time to get on the right side before things get worse for him.

[Alan T]

The problem with this thinking is - Lathum's role looks like the most important Umbrella role out there. For Lathum to make that move would be nuts.

That is what I initially was thinking. But like I said earlier in the day, we don't know what the research role entails, and it might have been an honest slip up on his part where he got busted without realizing he had given too much away.

[Fouts]

That is what I initially was thinking. But like I said earlier in the day, we don't know what the research role entails, and it might have been an honest slip up on his part where he got busted without realizing he had given too much away.

Lathum is a better player than that.

[BrianD]

This vote make zero sense. I see nothing from LSG that makes her suspicious.

And adding a 5th suspect is crazy. I'm still watching you Brian.

Of course you are, you are always watching me.

Did you not get the point of what I was trying to do even after explaining it many times? We keep spinning around the same few people while a majority of the players are staying in the background. I was trying to smoke others out to try to see which way they were leaning.

*tap microphone* Is this thing on? I feel like I keep saying the same thing and get absolutely no response. I guess nobody wants to look deeper than the few vocal people.

Unvote LoneStarGirl
Vote St.Cronin

[Alan T]

Lathum is a better player than that.

Well he got caught on day 2, good player or not, bogus reasons or not he got caught. Everyone messes up at some point.

It could be entirely possible that Lathum being a bad guy and you being a bad guy is entirely unrelational and I just got lucky with the correlation that wasnt there. :)

[Alan T]

Of course you are, you are always watching me.

Did you not get the point of what I was trying to do even after explaining it many times? We keep spinning around the same few people while a majority of the players are staying in the background. I was trying to smoke others out to try to see which way they were leaning.

*tap microphone* Is this thing on? I feel like I keep saying the same thing and get absolutely no response. I guess nobody wants to look deeper than the few vocal people.

Unvote LoneStarGirl
Vote St.Cronin

Well to be fair, how much heat were you going to put on someone who said she wasn't going to be able to be around much today?

[Fouts]

Well he got caught on day 2, good player or not, bogus reasons or not he got caught. Everyone messes up at some point.

It could be entirely possible that Lathum being a bad guy and you being a bad guy is entirely unrelational and I just got lucky with the correlation that wasnt there. :)

Amazing, you concede that the connection might not exist, but still think I'm bad.

[Alan T]

Amazing, you concede that the connection might not exist, but still think I'm bad.

Well you have to remember that the connection was drawn from me thinking you were bad and then him acting fishy in trying to push people away from you.

It wasnt a case of me thinking Lathum bad and then tying it to you.

[Alan T]

dola and I'll say this..

If you aren't aligned with Lathum then I would kill you today since you are a zombie.

The only reason I didn't push for your lynch today is I think its a high likelihood that you are umbrella, and for today at least I want to try for a zombie

[BrianD]

Well to be fair, how much heat were you going to put on someone who said she wasn't going to be able to be around much today?

Was she the only person playing UTR? We already know what people have been saying about the few we've been talking about. What we don't know is who might have been willing to step up to her defense. I was willing to take a shot at bringing out more info. Hopefully we'll learn enough from what happens tonight.

[Alan T]

Was she the only person playing UTR? We already know what people have been saying about the few we've been talking about. What we don't know is who might have been willing to step up to her defense. I was willing to take a shot at bringing out more info. Hopefully we'll learn enough from what happens tonight.

there are a few people playing UtR, and by all means I think going after them is a pretty good idea. I just don't to yet is all. Perhaps when the zombies finally kill 2 specific people, I'll feel a bit differently.

[spleen1015]

I don't know who to vote for today. You guys are making this tough. If I am seeing the same thing as hoops, then this might be the right decision.

VOTE st. cronin

[Alan T]

You guys are killing me. I already had been wondering about a spleen - hoops - st.cronin connection as I mentioned yesterday.

[ntndeacon]

If you feel I am the least trusted person left, then by all means vote for me. I'm the incorrect choice if you are good, or correct choice for vote if you're bad. However, all I ask is for you to give your reasons for it, for people to go back to look at later :)

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if you are going to be around more tonight and would like me to get more specific about what I think I saw happening I'll chat it out with you. But I don't really think that there is enough benefit to doing so for the good guys at this point if people are already going along with the vote.

However, if people want it out there as a matter of public record, with the chance of a conversion during Night 3 then I'll be willing to go into it further if/when the Cronin lynch is complete.

[BrianD]

there are a few people playing UtR, and by all means I think going after them is a pretty good idea. I just don't to yet is all. Perhaps when the zombies finally kill 2 specific people, I'll feel a bit differently.

That is fine. I thought starting earlier might be better, but I'll wait until after our current plan shakes out.

[Alan T]

Alan, if you are going to be around more tonight and would like me to get more specific about what I think I saw happening I'll chat it out with you. But I don't really think that there is enough benefit to doing so for the good guys at this point if people are already going along with the vote.

However, if people want it out there as a matter of public record, with the chance of a conversion during Night 3 then I'll be willing to go into it further if/when the Cronin lynch is complete.

I know what I know, so spelling it out for me won't really help me any. If you know what I know or most of it and are a bad guy, then its pointless for me to even answer this and your question is rhetorical. If you are a good guy then I guess its good you figured more out but don't think it would really be something to spell out right now.

Some things in this game will spell themselves out just fine after people's death and perhaps in this game certain things arent needed to be rushed. Thats why I had no problem with people lynching me if thats what they feel is best. Everything will spell out just fine on my death.

[BrianD]

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

I think your math is off. I read the rules as the zombies (individually) have a 50% chance of making a kill and if they fail, a 12.5% chance of being spotted. Basically that means each zombie would have a 1/16 chance of being spotted on a solo kill (1/2 chance of failing * 1/8 chance of being spotted). If there are two zombies, there would be a 1/8 chance of at least one getting caught.

[Alan T]

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

I spoke some about this earlier today if you want to go back a bit and look at the numbers I was figuring. You might be going through the same thought process I did earlier. I originally thought there was 11-5-3, but as you can see earlier in the day I think its more likely now to be 12-5-2 or 12-4-3 now. I can see why you are considering this, since it was something I was trying to figure out earlier myself.

To be honest Im suprised the zombies havent hit an umbrella out of sheer luck so far. Thats why I felt my numbers on them might have been a bit high.

[ntndeacon]

I think your math is off. I read the rules as the zombies (individually) have a 50% chance of making a kill and if they fail, a 12.5% chance of being spotted. Basically that means each zombie would have a 1/16 chance of being spotted on a solo kill (1/2 chance of failing * 1/8 chance of being spotted). If there are two zombies, there would be a 1/8 chance of at least one getting caught.

you are right about my math. Iforgot about the 50% success rate. but 1/8 isn't right I think.

Someone who knows Stats see if I am close (it has been a .long time since the dreaded class)

I am assuming that 2 zombie go after 2 different folks
1/4 of the time both kills succesful....100% unseen rate
2/4 of the time one succ. kill and 1 failure. for the failure there is 7/8 of the time unseen...total
1/2*7/8=7/16
1/4 of the time neither successful for each failure we have 7/8 unseen rate
total
1/4*(7/8)^2=49/256
addind the 3 possibilities together we get
1/4+7/16+49/256

equalling 225/256 or 87.8% unseen rate or 12.2% seen rate close but not exactly 1/8. I had to check. close enough :)

[SnDvls]

I'm sorry but what is everyone's suspicision of St. C again?

his self vote? I just don't see it at all.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Fouts

My thought process with this (at least until igo back and look through the "damning " evidence on Cronin) is a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. since it seems to be the consensus he is bad (although umbrella) My vote goes there for right now.

[BrianD]

I think you forgot the one case where both zombies fail their kill and both get caught. The odds of that happening would be 1/256 (1/16 * 1/16), or about .3%. Add that to your total and we get 12.5%.

[Alan T]

I'm sorry but what is everyone's suspicision of St. C again?

his self vote? I just don't see it at all.

There is other stuff that I've hinted at and made weird psychotic ramblings on for a few days too. It sounds like a few others finally figured it out and I hope they are good. But either way, I am so confident that cronin is not stars that if he turns up good, you can lynch me tommorrow.

[Glengoyne]

I think you forgot the one case where both zombies fail their kill and both get caught. The odds of that happening would be 1/256 (1/16 * 1/16), or about .3%. Add that to your total and we get 12.5%.
LoL

[ntndeacon]

no I didn't for get that as that is not a case. either both succeed both fail or only 1 fails. Iwasn't looking at seen rates (if iwas you are right ido need to worry about both being seen) but unseen rates. if they both fail each has a 7/8 of NOT getting seen so the not seen rate for this part would be as Istated earlier
1/4*7/8*7/8=49/256

[SnDvls]

There is other stuff that I've hinted at and made weird psychotic ramblings on for a few days too. It sounds like a few others finally figured it out and I hope they are good. But either way, I am so confident that cronin is not stars that if he turns up good, you can lynch me tommorrow.

I guess I have to be in the other boat then. I just can't see him being bad with how he acted just before and after the self vote.

[Alan T]

I guess I have to be in the other boat then. I just can't see him being bad with how he acted just before and after the self vote.

Thats fine, vote with what you think is right. Just make sure you give good reasons for your vote or people will come to it later and ask you about it in detail.

[BrianD]

no I didn't for get that as that is not a case. either both succeed both fail or only 1 fails. Iwasn't looking at seen rates (if iwas you are right ido need to worry about both being seen) but unseen rates. if they both fail each has a 7/8 of NOT getting seen so the not seen rate for this part would be as Istated earlier
1/4*7/8*7/8=49/256

So you figured out the case where they both fail their attack (1/4) and neither of them is seen (7/8*7/8). The probability of this is 12.2% (I'll trust your multiplication). You would then need to add the probability of only one failing and neither being seen, then add the probability of only the other failing and not being seen , then add the probability of neither failing and neither being seen. I think it is easier to figure out the probability that at least one gets caught.

[Glengoyne]

Glen, why did you coerce me onto SnDvls yesterday, but are hesitant to vote for him today?

I'm not hesitant really, as in I'm still leaning toward voting for him. I'm still not real satisfied with his answer. I'm going to have to go look and see if what he says is true about it being a 4-4 tie when he voted. I was catching up when I read his vote...so there might be room for me to have...err for me to be mistaken. I believed he voted when Alan was the main target, and not in a toss up situation. That said. The vote itself isn't what drew my suspicion, it was the accompanying statement that got my vote.

I didn't honestly coerce you, well I did urge you. Essentially I didn't like my other options, he was substantially suspicious to me, and I wanted to draw attention to him. You accused me of throwing my vote away, I felt pretty adamantly that I would be able to defend even the lynching of snDvls last night. So much so I said that if you voted for him, we could get him in the running. I still stand by that now.

As of now, one thing making me hesitant to vote with you is this tide indicating that you are Umbrella. I don't really want to be allied to you, even if the only measure of that is this vote. The downside is that seems where I'm drawn to vote by my instinct.

[Alan T]

I can't believe you all are arguing over .003 lol.

[BrianD]

NTN, I'm trying to do the math on the situations that I think you missed, but it isn't working out. I knew there was a reason I hated statistics. :)

[Alan T]

I'm not hesitant really, as in I'm still leaning toward voting for him. I'm still not real satisfied with his answer. I'm going to have to go look and see if what he says is true about it being a 4-4 tie when he voted. I was catching up when I read his vote...so there might be room for me to have...err for me to be mistaken. I believed he voted when Alan was the main target, and not in a toss up situation. That said. The vote itself isn't what drew my suspicion, it was the accompanying statement that got my vote.

I didn't honestly coerce you, well I did urge you. Essentially I didn't like my other options, he was substantially suspicious to me, and I wanted to draw attention to him. You accused me of throwing my vote away, I felt pretty adamantly that I would be able to defend even the lynching of snDvls last night. So much so I said that if you voted for him, we could get him in the running. I still stand by that now.

As of now, one thing making me hesitant to vote with you is this tide indicating that you are Umbrella. I don't really want to be allied to you, even if the only measure of that is this vote. The downside is that seems where I'm drawn to vote by my instinct.

From day 2

(586) St.cronin UNVOTES St.cronin (4) ***
(586) St.cronin votes Alan (3)
(602) Tyrith UNVOTES Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith Votes Alan (4)
(631) Fouts votes BrianD (1)
(641) Mr. Wednesday votes BrianD (2)
(642) path votes Lathum (1)
(643) hoops votes Lathum (2)
(658) Sndvls votes Alan (5)
(665) Tyrith UNVOTES Alan (4) ***
(665) Tyrith Votes Lathum (3)
(698) Lonestargirl UNVOTES Alan (3) ***
(698) Lonestargirl Votes lathum (4)
(700) Glengoyne votes Sndvls (1)

[BrianD]

I can't believe you all are arguing over .003 lol.

I've got a math degree and I suck at statistics. I keep trying to get myself to finaly figure this stuff out but it never seems to work.

[ntndeacon]

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

[Alan T]

I've got a math degree and I suck at statistics. I keep trying to get myself to finaly figure this stuff out but it never seems to work.

You all will hate me then. All of my percentages this entire game I've been rounding where convienant to the nearest % in most cases. :)

[BrianD]

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

Yeah, how sad are we? :D

[ntndeacon]

You all will hate me then. All of my percentages this entire game I've been rounding where convienant to the nearest % in most cases. :)

I did not like your 43% randomly getting a zombie or umbrella either now that you mentioned it. lol did a partial analysis on this then quit (part of the reason Idistrusted you) I thought you were giving out bad info and trying to sway us with faulty numbers

[Alan T]

Ok, i have to log on to my work vpn and do a network change. I wont be able to connect here till done. Might be 1 hour or 2 hours. Hopefully back before deadline.

[Alan T]

I did not like your 43% randomly getting a zombie or umbrella either now that you mentioned it. lol did a partial analysis on this then quit (part of the reason Idistrusted you) I thought you were giving out bad info and trying to sway us with faulty numbers

Nope, was basing it on the numbers i had figured at the time. (if there were 12 good guys to start, 4 dead.. means 8/14 left are STARS). But thats taking into assumption we started with 12 STARS which may or may not be correct.

But anyways, got to bolt. back in an hour or two

[ntndeacon]

Yeah, how sad are we? :D

my associates at work would claim very lol

[Glengoyne]

From day 2

(586) St.cronin UNVOTES St.cronin (4) ***
(586) St.cronin votes Alan (3)
(602) Tyrith UNVOTES Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith Votes Alan (4)
(631) Fouts votes BrianD (1)
(641) Mr. Wednesday votes BrianD (2)
(642) path votes Lathum (1)
(643) hoops votes Lathum (2)
(658) Sndvls votes Alan (5)
(665) Tyrith UNVOTES Alan (4) ***
(665) Tyrith Votes Lathum (3)
(698) Lonestargirl UNVOTES Alan (3) ***
(698) Lonestargirl Votes lathum (4)
(700) Glengoyne votes Sndvls (1)

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

[Glengoyne]

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

My wife has the math degree in our family, but I still wear the pants!

[Alan T]

well good news, my network change didn't get the VP approval, so guess i can't do it. So you all are stuck with me tonight after all.

[Alan T]

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

If you look closely it was tied cronin 4, me 4. Not me and Lathum. The people jumped from me to Lathum to make that run.

Not saying that sndvls isn't suspicious, just want to make sure you dont give him false reasons to attack you back on :)

[SnDvls]

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

you need to reread it again Glen

it was tied 4-4 St. C & Alan
I broke the tie to make it 5-4 Alan I don't belive it ever got higher than 5 on Alan so if I started a run I hope it wasn't a sprint because the race is over when I voted.

[SnDvls]

and he did the exact same thing I did yesterday.

use faulty logic...vote...leave

[hoopsguy]

Here is where I have the vote, as of Post #1186:


(5) St Cronin - Alan T (949), hoopsguy (1100), Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151)
(2) Fouts - Anxiety (979), NTN (1161)
(2) SnDVls - Fouts (935), Glengoyne (1181)
(1) Anxiety - St Cronin (987)

[LoneStarGirl]

I agree with the strategy of going after someone that is UTR.

I still believe that Alan is pushing too hard for st. cronin. Yesterday, it made me think he was a bad guy. Today, since he uis still at it, I think he is doing it because he is a good guy who really thinks st. cronin is bad. I don't think st. cronin is bad. Of the three, Alan/st. cronin/hoops, i would believe hoops was a bad guy before any of them. If he is, he's a zombie.

I agree that LSG looks suspicious, but I always think she is. It must be her style of play.

HEEEEY, you agree that i am suspicious? Who else said i was? And how do i act suspicious every game?

[SnDvls]

vote Glengoyne

he did exactally what he is accusing me of
I don't like St. C as a canidate for today and I haven't
since he's been on the block so I can't go that way.
honestly I have no read on fouts or Anxiety to put anything on them
so this is the way I'm going today

[hoopsguy]

Think it is Rum, LSG, and MrW without votes at this point.

[spleen1015]

HEEEEY, you agree that i am suspicious? Who else said i was? And how do i act suspicious every game?

You always seem to come in, post one or 2 lines, then take off for a few more hours. Rinse, repeat every day. Even when you vote you give a 1 or 2 line reason why you are voting the way you do and that's about it.

I watch the thread pretty much all day long from 8:30am until about 5pm. Then I'm on in spurts between 5pm-8:30pm. After that I watch the thread the rest of the night, usually. So, I see a lot of the comings and goings of everyone.

[Fouts]

vote Glengoyne

he did exactally what he is accusing me of
I don't like St. C as a canidate for today and I haven't
since he's been on the block so I can't go that way.
honestly I have no read on fouts or Anxiety to put anything on them
so this is the way I'm going today

2 things jump out at me about this.

1) You vote for him for doing the same thing you did. So we should lynch you and then him? Not a good move for you.

2) You're backing st.cronin makes him even more suspicious.

[LoneStarGirl]

You always seem to come in, post one or 2 lines, then take off for a few more hours. Rinse, repeat every day. Even when you vote you give a 1 or 2 line reason why you are voting the way you do and that's about it.

I watch the thread pretty much all day long from 8:30am until about 5pm. Then I'm on in spurts between 5pm-8:30pm. After that I watch the thread the rest of the night, usually. So, I see a lot of the comings and goings of everyone.

Lol you are right.... I am a 22 year old girl getting her masters while teaching high school geometry and algebra, while house hunting, and having to spend too much time with my boyfriend and three dogs.... Sorry Spleen :p

Anyways he's right... that is something i'll work on in the next games I play and over the weekend. I am not voting for Cronin.... and i keep going back and forward between Fouts and SNDVLS, they both don't feel like STARS but i dont know which way to go.

[LoneStarGirl]

I feel that Cronin is not a zombie...whether he is an umbrella or not i dont know. Both SnDvls and I feel about the same about Cronin,

Fouts on the other hand doesn't agree that Cronin is good... so that is where I am leaning. Now i get to watch the Cardinals win the World Series! Be back before lynch.

Vote Fouts

[LoneStarGirl]

And BrianD....I am coming after you next

[SnDvls]

2) You're backing st.cronin makes him even more suspicious.

not quite sure what you are saying here. me backing St. C has nothign to do w/ Glen except that I'm not voting St. C in the people who had votes.

same with why I didn't vote you or anxiety.

it's like I said. he was critical of what I did yesterday, but did the same today.

[BrianD]

And BrianD....I am coming after you next

Because I put a little heat on you? :)

Is this another drive-by?

[SnDvls]

sorry should say ...I'm not voting St. C or the people who had votes

[Chief Rum]

I've covered the past couple of pages. Just have a couple of minutes between jobs here.

It looks like I get to do what I wanted to do last night, and

vote cronin

I won't be back till late. After Deadline

[SnDvls]

OOC: it's time for dinner out here in AZ and then to my wife's work (elementary school) is having a disco night. I should be back before lynch, but not sure when.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, are you going to have some time to dive into this game over the weekend? Would love to have you a little more involved in the conversation, time permitting.

[hoopsguy]

OOC: SnDvls, burn baby burn!

[Glengoyne]

If you look closely it was tied cronin 4, me 4. Not me and Lathum. The people jumped from me to Lathum to make that run.

Not saying that sndvls isn't suspicious, just want to make sure you dont give him false reasons to attack you back on :)

you need to reread it again Glen

it was tied 4-4 St. C & Alan
I broke the tie to make it 5-4 Alan I don't belive it ever got higher than 5 on Alan so if I started a run I hope it wasn't a sprint because the race is over when I voted.

I'm home now. I'm a freaking moron. Maybe I shouldn't play WW from the office.

I was wrong on my assessment of Lathum's votes. I can't read the plain text that Alan presented for me.

I can't really defend my actions, but I'm not moving my vote. I'm careless, and it cost me getting a vote, but worst things have happened. Racer wanted me jailed in day two of the last game, so day three is an improvement I guess.

I'm still sticking with snDvls, eventhough I'm not getting the same warm fuzzy feeling I had when I made my vote.

Sometimes I think my greatest weakness in WW is that I don't let go of things that hurt me, like my senseless bashing of Saldana over jailing Swaggs in Tombstone. Even a full day after my suspicion of Sal had cleared, I was back beating the drum calling him a willfully incompetent sheriff. I won't toss that bone aside. I just brazenlyand stubbornly hold on, even when it hurts. Like a bulldog. In this case, like a stupid bulldog.
---

The wife is sick, I have to do something about dinner. I'll be back before lynch.

[Alan T]

zzzzzzzz

[hoopsguy]

Playing poker at this point - will poke the head in to see if there is anything interesting every so often. But the vote seems pretty much in hand at the moment.

[Tyrith]

If I wasn't DEAD I could keep you all better company! :P

[hoopsguy]

(Nudges Tyrith with a stick) ...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just got back, and I'm starting forward from post 926. I'm going to try to check in on the vote, but unless there's a pressing need, I'll hold off on actually voting right now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

OK, it looks like it's not pressing.

My thinking from yesterday is, Alan might be Umbrella, since he wasn't too wild about the whole Lathum thing, and I think hoopsguy is not Umbrella. No read on zombies right now. We need to get one today, they'll probably multiply tonight.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Sure, I'll list a few Tyrith posts from yesterday from my notes:

#471 - lynch of Cronin does not excite him
#516 - rather vote for Fouts than Cronin
#556 - doesn't think Cronin is a bad guy, is annoyed that Cronin self-voted
#587 - asks Cronin what he is going to do
#600 - Cronin's reasoning is sound
#602 - really does not want us to kill Cronin

He moved around on several other players, but had a lower level of certainty on them than he did with Cronin. Which made me believe he was exactly the role he had once I started searching yesterday for someone who might have scanned Cronin Night 1. This was the time that I changed my philosophy for yesterday to not vote for Cronin - can pull up those posts as well if you want me to do this.

Anyways, sucks to lose this STARS role but it vaults Cronin to the top of my trusted list for today. There cannot have been a conversion yet (by rule), so I feel very confident in him today.

So, um, hoops said this early in the day, but now it looks like cronin is on the block... I'm guessing something changed?

[hoopsguy]

MrW, let me know when you are caught up and I'll talk about what has changed if you don't think I spelled it out enough.

[Alan T]

OK, it looks like it's not pressing.

My thinking from yesterday is, Alan might be Umbrella, since he wasn't too wild about the whole Lathum thing, and I think hoopsguy is not Umbrella. No read on zombies right now. We need to get one today, they'll probably multiply tonight.

Not sure why you say this when it was me who pointed out the lathum stuff that people jumped on. Im estatic he got lynched

[Mr. Wednesday]

MrW, let me know when you are caught up and I'll talk about what has changed if you don't think I spelled it out enough.
It was kinda obvious, no need to explain it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Not sure why you say this when it was me who pointed out the lathum stuff that people jumped on. Im estatic he got lynched
:confused:

If you voted for him at all, it was pretty late.

[SnDvls]

OOC: SnDvls, burn baby burn!

OOC: my wife teaches 1st grade and it's really cute to see all her kids in afros and disco outfits. some of the PTO parents were dressed up too...pretty scary :eek:

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't particularly trust Alan right now. hoops is looking better to me, so I'll follow him... for now...

VOTE st.cronin

[hoopsguy]

Probably too early in the game to vote nightfall, right?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wha?

[Alan T]

:confused:

If you voted for him at all, it was pretty late.

it was my calling him out about fouts that people used to lynch him. It might not show in the votes, but it was there if you go back to read the conversation of the day.

I just felt at the time and still feel cronin the better target

[hoopsguy]

Was the "wha" to nightfall?

I'm sure there are a few who have not seen that in games - basically if it looks like the vote is set and not moving (would be very surprised if it did on a Friday night) then people can vote nightfall to move ahead with lynch early.

Basically bored sitting and waiting to see if I played OK today or if I'm a frigging dunce.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yeah, I figured it out after posting my confusion.

[Fouts]

I thought he meant he was playing the new Guild Wars expansion. :)

[Glengoyne]

Was the "wha" to nightfall?

I'm sure there are a few who have not seen that in games - basically if it looks like the vote is set and not moving (would be very surprised if it did on a Friday night) then people can vote nightfall to move ahead with lynch early.

Basically bored sitting and waiting to see if I played OK today or if I'm a frigging dunce.

I'm back with sushi in hand, and the jury is in on me. I'm a dunce.

As far as I'm concerned if Cronin comes back zombie, you and Alan are freaking geniuses. If he doesn't then...I don't know. You guys are in line to be lynched I guess.?

If Cronin is STARS, how close could Umbrella be to equalling our numbers?

I don't know, I kind of feel like if Cronin is Stars, then my thinking is back to ground zero. If he comes up zombie, then I'll stand in whatever line you guys tell me.

[Chubby]

time check

[Glengoyne]

Hey did you guys know there was a new FoF release?

You guys have sucked me in something fierce.

[hoopsguy]

LOL, yeah saw something about that yesterday afternoon :)

Funny, funny stuff.

[ntndeacon]

Hey did you guys know there was a new FoF release?

You guys have sucked me in something fierce.

You mean people talk about FOF here? I am shocked! I am shocked and appalled! :D

[Glengoyne]

Chubby still doing the vote?

How luck can Fouts be?

[Chubby]

After yet another night with the death of S.T.A.R.S. members the citizens of Raccoon City were uneasy. It was decided once again that the focus of conversation for the day would be St Cronin. Unlike previous days, the conversation never changed and it was decided that St Cronin MUST be a zombie!

St Cronin is led into the center of the town square. "I've told you for three days now, I'm just a regular member of S.T.A.R.S.!" His cries fall on deaf ears as the crowd cheers when the executioner emerges with shotgun in hand. Three loud shotgun blasts later and St Cronin drops like a bag of rocks. Witnessing the death of St Cronin, the crowd can't help but feel like they've been here before...

The coroner slowly approaches the corpse, half expecting it to lurch at his feet and begin gnawing on his shoes or something. He carefully draws the blood sample and awaits to see if it's one line or two. One line for not zombie, two lines for zombie; it's just that easy! Finally the results come in...

St Cronin was NOT a zombie!

The crowd is disappointed and they quickly file home, disgusted in themselves. A search of St Cronin's home reveals a gun in it's holster tucked away in the closet underneath a swimsuit poster of Claire Redfield.

Night Three ends Sat 11pm EST

[Glengoyne]

oops should be lucky

[Alan T]

well I suck then. Its cool if you all want to kill me tommorrow

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm pretty sure that Alan will be around come Day 4.

[Glengoyne]

Somebody gots some 'splaining to do!

[ntndeacon]

does someone have the voting history?

[Alan T]

Somebody gots some 'splaining to do!

I was wrong. Like I said I'll accept a lynching tommorrow. Sorry

[hoopsguy]

Alan, are you interesting in trying to explain why you were so hot for Cronin when you were not 100% sure?

The fact that you had not moved your vote for two straight days and were willing to trade your life for Cronin led me to believe you were Internal Affairs. I knew you were not Police Chief from Bullet on Day 1.

[Glengoyne]

I was wrong. Like I said I'll accept a lynching tommorrow. Sorry

OK. I feel the need to go a little democrat on you and Hoops.

I want to know what you knew, and when you knew it!

[hoopsguy]

We are looking at a potential conversion tonight as well as a night kill. I would encourage the Sniper to decide on a target tonight - I know I should be in their thought process as well after today - and take a shot tonight to see if we can start to even the odds up a little bit.

[Fouts]

After yet another night with the death of S.T.A.R.S. members the citizens of Raccoon City were uneasy. It was decided once again that the focus of conversation for the day would be St Cronin. Unlike previous days, the conversation never changed and it was decided that St Cronin MUST be a zombie!

St Cronin is led into the center of the town square. "I've told you for three days now, I'm just a regular member of S.T.A.R.S.!" His cries fall on deaf ears as the crowd cheers when the executioner emerges with shotgun in hand. Three loud shotgun blasts later and St Cronin drops like a bag of rocks. Witnessing the death of St Cronin, the crowd can't help but feel like they've been here before...

The coroner slowly approaches the corpse, half expecting it to lurch at his feet and begin gnawing on his shoes or something. He carefully draws the blood sample and awaits to see if it's one line or two. One line for not zombie, two lines for zombie; it's just that easy! Finally the results come in...

St Cronin was NOT a zombie!

The crowd is disappointed and they quickly file home, disgusted in themselves. A search of St Cronin's home reveals a gun in it's holster tucked away in the closet underneath a swimsuit poster of Claire Redfield.

Night Three ends Sat 11pm EST

Shouldn't that be a swimsuit poster of Tom Brady? ;)

[Alan T]

Nope, I never lied about my role. I just misread what someone else was doing in the game that I had been tracking for a while. I based my reasoning on who came out and said I was a suspect, I ruled them out as police chief and then had it narrowed down to one person who had targeted cronin.

So evidentally the chief at some point said I was a suspect which I wouldnt have thought they would have done. I just misplayed and cost us a day.

You all can lynch me tommorrow

[ntndeacon]

Alan, are you interesting in trying to explain why you were so hot for Cronin when you were not 100% sure?

The fact that you had not moved your vote for two straight days and were willing to trade your life for Cronin led me to believe you were Internal Affairs. I knew you were not Police Chief from Bullet on Day 1.

I was thinking the same way, which is why I did not vote for Alan either. This is a set back certainly.

[ntndeacon]

Nope, I never lied about my role. I just misread what someone else was doing in the game that I had been tracking for a while. I based my reasoning on who came out and said I was a suspect, I ruled them out as police chief and then had it narrowed down to one person who had targeted cronin.

So evidentally the chief at some point said I was a suspect which I wouldnt have thought they would have done. I just misplayed and cost us a day.

You all can lynch me tommorrow

The only problem with this is if you are telling the truth this will cost us another night.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As far as I'm concerned if Cronin comes back zombie, you and Alan are freaking geniuses. If he doesn't then...I don't know. You guys are in line to be lynched I guess.?
hoops, maybe. I think Alan's Umbrella, and right now we need to be worrying about zombies, not Umbrella.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, I posted my thoughts this morning on Cronin but was shaken by the fact that Tyrith could only ID Umbrella, not faction.

I think I argued pretty intensely for Cronin but I didn't see other people joining the fray with me and everyone had checked in. If the Chief knew that Alan was not STARS I expected them to assert themselves at some point. I didn't see it happening.

So I went back looking at the timing on Alan's vote yesterday. It was within 30 minutes of results going up. He never moved his vote on Cronin at any point during the day. He stayed on his vote with Cronin today when I pushed at him hard. Why would he make that play?

I figured that he either had to KNOW that Cronin was not STARS or else he was making a play at us to buy another day. But Day 3 wasn't end game mode. We would still have time to win the game, so why would he make an over the top play, when he came out and said he would be the next lynch?

Anyways, I talked myself into him as Internal Affairs.

[SnDvls]

Alan I won't be going after you for what it's worth
I think you were just reading into something way too much on St. C

[hoopsguy]

Final Vote:

(7) St Cronin - Alan T (949), hoopsguy (1100), Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151), Rum (1199), MrW (1216)
(3) Fouts - Anxiety (979), NTN (1161), LSG (1194)
(2) SnDVls - Fouts (935), Glengoyne (1181)
(1) Anxiety - St Cronin (987)
(1) Glengoyne - SnDvls (1189)

Alan, feel like posting the vote/unvote stuff? Pretty sure I will be double-checking it after today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

it was my calling him out about fouts that people used to lynch him. It might not show in the votes, but it was there if you go back to read the conversation of the day.

I'm in the process of doing so (I'll have a far more detailed reply than I really should produce), and I don't know WTF you're talking about. I'm up to 10:30, and you haven't directly addressed Lathum at all, and at this point, he's ahead in the voting.

[Fouts]

Well, I didn't vote for Lathum and caught some heat. I didn't vote for st.cronin, will I get some slack?

I still like my candidate for lynching.

[Fouts]

We are looking at a potential conversion tonight as well as a night kill. I would encourage the Sniper to decide on a target tonight - I know I should be in their thought process as well after today - and take a shot tonight to see if we can start to even the odds up a little bit.

Sniper has to be sure of his target, else we are in big trouble.

[BrianD]

Sniper has to be sure of his target, else we are in big trouble.

I'd like to echo these words. We are down to 13 now? If the sniper hits a non-zombie, we are down to 11. If the zombies get 2 night kills again...9. Can the same zombie night-kill and convert? I'm assuming not. I think the sniper should only take the shot if they are sure of the target.