Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[spleen1015]

So okay, based on your analysis, you believe I'm a zombie because I didn't switch when you asked me to?

Keep in mind that I've been behind with the reading and as the deadline grew closer, I glanced at the last few pages and felt a little bit of pressure to cast a vote, not knowing the backstory on each candidate and who had the most evidence against them. I honestly didn't see a case against Glen. Could I have missed something? Absolutely! It's not the first time it happened.

If you really aren't a zombie, moving your vote would have been a good move to earn you some trust. But since you're zombie, you couldn't move your vote because it meant losing the infector.

You'll live for another night. They're going to lynch me today instead.

[hoopsguy]

DC, it isn't just that you didn't move the vote, when it turned out the other guy was a Zombie. It is the lack of any information from Anxiety's play, which more or less continued with you while you were catching up. That is one of the things that often happens when you join a game in the middle - it is rare to be taking over for a cool, trusted role. So in addition to catching up with 1,700 posts you are in a position where you have to defend the play (or lack thereof) of the guy before you.

Is that cool, from where you sit? Probably not. But the rest of us trying to get a Zombie today have to act off the available information. I didn't trust Anxiety much, which is why I put the question to you when I did last night. You didn't respond at all to it. I have to evaluate that information and that is what I'm doing.

As it stands right now, my vote is on Spleen. But if you are able to point out compelling reasons why you are STARS that would help make sure it doesn't head back in your direction later.

[spleen1015]

I have a lot to say strategically, but I can't say too much because it will help the Umbrella and zombie factions.


If you are STARS, you want to keep me around.

[Chubby]

Well I'm leaving for work so here's the votes so far with 7 hours to go:

(1) Fouts - SnDvls (1960)
(1) dodgerchick - spleen (1964)
(1) spleen - hoopsguy (1997)

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, do I need to pull out your voting record again to demonstrate that you are not the Police Chief and that you would be an amazingly bad Internal Affairs candidate?

Final Votes:
Spleen - Bullet (3rd), Alan (1st), Cronin (5th), Glen (2nd)

Before settling on Glen (self-preservation vote) you had votes on LSG and SnDvls.

If you want to fake role reveal, come out and claim a role - take your best shot. But don't act like you are the Police Chief after your performances on Days 2 and 3 with final votes on Alan and Cronin.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, do I need to pull out your voting record again to demonstrate that you are not the Police Chief and that you would be an amazingly bad Internal Affairs candidate?

Final Votes:
Spleen - Bullet (3rd), Alan (1st), Cronin (5th), Glen (2nd)

Before settling on Glen (self-preservation vote) you had votes on LSG and SnDvls.

If you want to fake role reveal, come out and claim a role - take your best shot. But don't act like you are the Police Chief after your performances on Days 2 and 3 with final votes on Alan and Cronin.

I'm not trying to fake role reveal. If I was going to try something like that, it would have been last night.

What I have to say is all from a strategic point of view. I want to make sure that STARS is looking at the game the same way I am.

[spleen1015]

hoops, I know my voting record is extremely poor. As I said last night, I don't have a role that will gain me any information. So, I have to go along with the opinion of others in most cases.

For the record, Lathum was lynched last Thursday night. I was bowling when the vote swung toward him. I didn't have the opportunity to change my vote. I definitely would have voted for him if I was around when things happened. I'll be in the same boat again today. I will be out bowling after 7:30.

[BrianD]

For the record, Lathum was lynched last Thursday night. I was bowling when the vote swung toward him. I didn't have the opportunity to change my vote. I definitely would have voted for him if I was around when things happened. I'll be in the same boat again today. I will be out bowling after 7:30.

You definitely would have voted for him? You knew he was bad when just over half of the people in the game only suspected? That is a bold statement.

As it is, if you are a zombie, voting for him would have fit your strategy.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, if you are STARS then you should post your strategy. It is entirely possible that we will make a mistake today. Both Umbrella and the Zombies will be trying to make sure that we do make a mistake to enhance their chances of winning.

So, if you have some strategic thoughts that you think we should know, I would encourage you to post them before your game ends.

As far as having a role that doesn't get information, it does leave you in a position of only being able to evaluate posts rather than having your own private stash of information that allows you to make better reads. But that does not mean that you have to go along with the opinion of others. In fact, I think having a plain villager role is a blast in these games because the level of risk is lower. You are not worried about burning a special role. If you go down instead of a special role, it is not as big a loss for the team. I take those games as an invitation to be even more aggressive with my analysis, rather than more passive. OK, time to step off the soapbox ...

[spleen1015]

You definitely would have voted for him? You knew he was bad when just over half of the people in the game only suspected? That is a bold statement.

As it is, if you are a zombie, voting for him would have fit your strategy.

And it is within your best interest to slander me because you are Umbrella. So, getting my fellow STARS voting aginst me works in your favor.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, if you are STARS then you should post your strategy. It is entirely possible that we will make a mistake today. Both Umbrella and the Zombies will be trying to make sure that we do make a mistake to enhance their chances of winning.

So, if you have some strategic thoughts that you think we should know, I would encourage you to post them before your game ends.

As far as having a role that doesn't get information, it does leave you in a position of only being able to evaluate posts rather than having your own private stash of information that allows you to make better reads. But that does not mean that you have to go along with the opinion of others. In fact, I think having a plain villager role is a blast in these games because the level of risk is lower. You are not worried about burning a special role. If you go down instead of a special role, it is not as big a loss for the team. I take those games as an invitation to be even more aggressive with my analysis, rather than more passive. OK, time to step off the soapbox ...


I will post my thoughts before I leave later. I need to formulate some things. The problem is going to be giving up too much information to Umbrella and zombie. What I say could very much help them win. So, I don't know if it is a good idea. Let me do a little more research.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Right now, we CANNOT afford to lynch another STARS. In fact, I suspect it may be essential for us to vote as a bloc. We can count on Umbrella to do so, as long as it's in their interest.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I think we may find ourselves in that position tomorrow. When I've run the numbers today, I've anticipated that we have at least one more day even with a bad lynch and a worst-case evening. Only way that does not add up is if there are still four Umbrella remaining.

Also, the Zombies can feel free to attack an Umbrella one of these evenings - seriously, every single kill has been STARS and it has been pretty annoying.

[BrianD]

I will post my thoughts before I leave later. I need to formulate some things. The problem is going to be giving up too much information to Umbrella and zombie. What I say could very much help them win. So, I don't know if it is a good idea. Let me do a little more research.

At this point an Umbrella or a zombie win is pretty much out the window. We've probably got one zombie left to take out. With 9 people in the game, there is no way the zombies get a 1:1 ratio anymore. I'm also pretty confident we can take out the one zombie before all of the remaining STARS are taken out. There really isn't much helpful info that can be given to anyone...certainly not enough to help them win.

[spleen1015]

hoops, if you've looked at the numbers, then you might be seeing the same thing I am.

[hoopsguy]

If we are truly worried about the four Umbrella strategy then we could move our votes over to SnDvls. But the risk there is if there are still two zombies left then they have a chance for multiple kills this evening.

[spleen1015]

If we are truly worried about the four Umbrella strategy then we could move our votes over to SnDvls. But the risk there is if there are still two zombies left then they have a chance for multiple kills this evening.

At some point we need to think about lynching them. If the way I see the rest of the folks is true, the Umbrella/zombie out number STARS.

On the same token, the zombies need to take out Umbrella to win as well.

I don't think there is anyway for STARS to avoid a lynching loss today.

[spleen1015]

I want to make this public record before I possibly get lynched tonight.

Right now, I think there are 4 STARS left:
spleen, hoops, LSG and Mr. W.

I think there are 3 Umbrella left:
Fouts, SnDvls, BrianD

2 zombies left:
Chief Rum and Dodgerchick

[Lorena]

DC, it isn't just that you didn't move the vote, when it turned out the other guy was a Zombie. It is the lack of any information from Anxiety's play, which more or less continued with you while you were catching up. That is one of the things that often happens when you join a game in the middle - it is rare to be taking over for a cool, trusted role. So in addition to catching up with 1,700 posts you are in a position where you have to defend the play (or lack thereof) of the guy before you.

Is that cool, from where you sit? Probably not. But the rest of us trying to get a Zombie today have to act off the available information. I didn't trust Anxiety much, which is why I put the question to you when I did last night. You didn't respond at all to it. I have to evaluate that information and that is what I'm doing.

As it stands right now, my vote is on Spleen. But if you are able to point out compelling reasons why you are STARS that would help make sure it doesn't head back in your direction later.


Hoops, I admire your analytical skills, but it baffles me that you haven't looked through yesterday's posts and noticed that I was occupied most of the night with trying to catch up and tending to RL:

Post 1593 (my vote on Alan, while still catching up)
Post 1745 (occupied with the kids, vote still on Alan)
Post 1746 (I quoted your post based on your analysis of spleen's votes and voted for him)
Post 1755 (you ask me to switch votes)
Post 1861 at 10:29 central time (still tending to RL after the deadline)

So based on what you're saying about Anxiety's play vs. my play, you're saying that he didn't provide information. Alright, I get that. But what would have happened if I was on my keyboard and went along with you? Would I be trusted then? Maybe, maybe not.

I mean seriously, if I went along with your vote and Glen ended up being good, I would have set myself up pretty good now wouldn't I... being that no one has vouched for me. But I went with the information that made the most sense for me at the time... had I had information against Glen, hell yeah I would have voted for him.

[spleen1015]

hoops, do you think there could possibly be 5 STARS left?

[spleen1015]

Hoops, I admire your analytical skills, but it baffles me that you haven't looked through yesterday's posts and noticed that I was occupied most of the night with trying to catch up and tending to RL:

Post 1593 (my vote on Alan, while still catching up)
Post 1745 (occupied with the kids, vote still on Alan)
Post 1746 (I quoted your post based on your analysis of spleen's votes and voted for him)
Post 1755 (you ask me to switch votes)
Post 1861 at 10:29 central time (still tending to RL after the deadline)

So based on what you're saying about Anxiety's play vs. my play, you're saying that he didn't provide information. Alright, I get that. But what would have happened if I was on my keyboard and went along with you? Would I be trusted then? Maybe, maybe not.

I mean seriously, if I went along with your vote and Glen ended up being good, I would have set myself up pretty good now wouldn't I... being that no one has vouched for me. But I went with the information that made the most sense for me at the time... had I had information against Glen, hell yeah I would have voted for him.

If you're not zombie, then what are you?

[Fouts]

Mr.W, we can largely count on Fouts' scans if you believe his order and believe that I'm actually a bodyguard.

Night 1 - protected Fouts
Night 2 - protected NTN
Night 3 - protected LSG (key here in trusting Fouts' scans)
Night 4 - stayed home on the protect

What? You left me hanging in the wind??? Grrr.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure I agree with the makeup of the teams, but I do agree that a bad lynch could leave the Zombies controlling our fate with their night kill.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, it worked :) And now I can protect you tonight. Of course, the Zombies also know that I'm dead meat tonight if they decide to come after me. Which is part of why I was curious about the order of night actions tonight.

Spleen, I think it is entirely possible that we have five STARS left. But I don't know that I would bet on it.

[hoopsguy]

DC, if you had moved then you would be more trusted in my eyes today.

If Glen had shown up as STARS and you had stayed then you would have been more trusted in my eyes today.

Basically, I didn't have a high level of trust for either you or BrianD last night. I now have a higher level of trust that Brian is not a Zombie, while being more suspicious that you are Zombie. Last night I took a high risk play hoping to get information, one way or the other. I'm glad it got us a Zombie, but I would have had more information for today no matter which way it turned out.

[Fouts]

In fact, I think having a plain villager role is a blast in these games because the level of risk is lower. You are not worried about burning a special role. If you go down instead of a special role, it is not as big a loss for the team. I take those games as an invitation to be even more aggressive with my analysis, rather than more passive. OK, time to step off the soapbox ...

Agreed. Put yourself out there to protect the roled players. Who cares if a vanilla role goes down?

[hoopsguy]

Agreed. Put yourself out there to protect the roled players. Who cares if a vanilla role goes down?

Exhibits A and B of this behavior - Fouts (school teacher) and Spleen (mortician) last game. You guys were all over me for days last game. Neither of you felt like you had anything to lose with your roles, so you could feel free to make my Cowboy existence miserable.

[Fouts]

If we are worried about the Umbrella, we can take out SnDvls. I'd love to see how the votes stack up in that one.

[Fouts]

What do you think about stacking up against SnDvls? I am almost sure there is one zombie left.

[Fouts]

Oh, and before I forget. Nice shot Mr. W!

My analysis on Path was right on. His first vote on Lathum should have gotten him killed by the zombies.

[BrianD]

Guys, I have to take off to class. I'm going to cast my vote now on who I think the last zombie is. Hopefully I'll be back later tonight before the lynch to see what happened in the last few hours.

Vote Spleen

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, who did you scope out last night?

[Fouts]

Fouts, who did you scope out last night?

I posted earlier that I scanned Mr. W. He is who he says he is.

[Fouts]

Here is my known list (and I will assume none of my cleared have been converted):

STARS - LSG, Hoops, Mr.W., Fouts
Umbrella - SnDvls

Left: DC, Chief Rum, Spleen, BrianD (in order of suspected zombie)

[hoopsguy]

Cool, just wanted to make sure that I was recalling correctly - thought you had said MrW before the morning results went up but didn't remember anything after that.

[SnDvls]

Kinda disappointed it's so slow in here today

[Fouts]

My best guess is that it is 5-3-1 (STARS, Umbrella, Zombie). I am concerned about a STARS lynch, followed by a STARS death. It would then be 3-3-1 and we'd be in trouble.

Now might be a good time to take out a known Umbrella to avoid a STARS lynch.

[Fouts]

Kinda disappointed it's so slow in here today

You could liven it up with some info, or we could lynch you. :cool:

[hoopsguy]

Since Umbrella only wins if we are all taken out I think it makes sense to continue pursuing zombies today.

Even if we were in a 4-4-1 scenario, Umbrella does not have a night action.
If we are in a 4-3-2 scenario, a bad lynch and the Zombies killing two STARS puts us really under the gun but it is damaging to the Zombies as well because the Umbrella people know each other and would be able to control the votes.

So I don't think it makes any sense to go after SnDvls this afternoon - let the Zombies take him out at night if they are trying to win the game.

I could be talked into moving my vote to Dodgerchick if someone has a strong vibe for her instead of Spleen. I suppose I could move to Chief Rum as well, although it would take a more persuasive argument.

[hoopsguy]

NM, just realized something dumb in the above post. 4-4-1 and a bad lynch = Umbrella controlling the vote tomorrow if the Zombies don't get Umbrella with their night action.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, any strong reason to believe there are five STARS instead of four?

[Fouts]

I'm not sure about spleen. He's been acting weird today, but that might be normal for him. I have absolutely no information on Anxiety/DC. You can't get much more UtR than Anxiety/DC.

[Fouts]

Fouts, any strong reason to believe there are five STARS instead of four?

I've only scanned 4 STARS. We don't want the Umbrella to control the voting tomorrow.

[Fouts]

I've only scanned 4 STARS. We don't want the Umbrella to control the voting tomorrow.

Well scanned 3 STARS and myself. You know the zombies will take out one of you, me or Mr. W.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I think this may extend the game an extra day in the long run, but it seems like the safe play is to evict an Umbrella today.

If someone has a clear path to a Zombie I would love to hear it between now and the deadline.

UNVOTE SPLEEN
VOTE SNDVLS

[Fouts]

I hope there are 5 STARS left, because if there are 4 Umbrella + 1 Zombie, I might get lynched.

[Fouts]

I think we need to knock off an Umbrella member, plus I want to see how people vote in this one. It will tell us alot about factions.

vote SnDvls

[LoneStarGirl]

I dont understand why we need to knock off umbrella? I think we need to hit a zombie....

vote dodgerchick

[Fouts]

I dont understand why we need to knock off umbrella? I think we need to hit a zombie....

vote dodgerchick

I guess it depends on where you think we are. The Umbrella just need to get control of the voting. Once they do, we are done.

If it is 5-3-1 right now and we miss and lynch a STARS, then the zombies kill a STARS, then it is 3-3-1 and we've lost control of the lynch.

I think the remaining zombie should be worried about an Umbrella win. Once the Umbrella get control of the vote, there will be no stopping them.

LSG, what are your thoughts on that?

[spleen1015]

If Fouts can be trusted that he is STARS, then we have 5 STARS left. If there is 5 STARS left, then the right move is to lynch Dodgerchick.

[Fouts]

If Fouts can be trusted that he is STARS, then we have 5 STARS left. If there is 5 STARS left, then the right move is to lynch Dodgerchick.

Did you not read my scenario above?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I agree with the analysis presented.

VOTE SnDvls

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, who do we think is highest probability zombie?

Lowest probability STARS, not counting known Umbrella?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think I'm ready to take a shot tonight, but I want to think seriously about my target list.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, are you sure about LSG as STARS?

I'm pretty sure about MrW as STARS. That is about it. Fouts pushing for an Umbrella lynch on SnDvls makes me feel better about him as STARS but I don't think it is a stone-cold lock.

[Fouts]

Dola, who do we think is highest probability zombie?

Lowest probability STARS, not counting known Umbrella?

I posted it before, but my probablity list;

highest chance at zombie: Dodger Chick, Chief Rum, Spleen, LSG (in that order)

lowest chance at zombie: Fouts, Mr. W, hoops, BrianD, Sndvls (in that order)

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, you ready to watch the vote move in the last couple of hours tonight?

[hoopsguy]

Not talking about mine this time, just expecting some push-back.

[Fouts]

Fouts, you ready to watch the vote move in the last couple of hours tonight?

Yeah, the four confirmed STARS should vote as a block.

[Glengoyne]

What? You left me hanging in the wind??? Grrr.

I'm guarantee you that if I hadn't gotten lynched, I was coming for your pot stirring ass.:D

[Lorena]

Sndvls 3 - fouts, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday
DC 2 - LSG, Spleen
Fouts 1 - Sndvls
Spleen 1 - briand

Not voted Chief Rum and me

Quick note so I can look elsewhere besides a spreadsheet

[SnDvls]

I guess it depends on where you think we are. The Umbrella just need to get control of the voting. Once they do, we are done.

If it is 5-3-1 right now and we miss and lynch a STARS, then the zombies kill a STARS, then it is 3-3-1 and we've lost control of the lynch.

I think the remaining zombie should be worried about an Umbrella win. Once the Umbrella get control of the vote, there will be no stopping them.

LSG, what are your thoughts on that?

umbrella already have control of the vote because there are 2 zombies left
one original and one convert and enough of us to still win.

the zombies know they need to keep us around to win

I will say it again fouts there is a person on your list who isn't good

[LoneStarGirl]

I thought the people on Fouts' list were people he scanned and verified? I understand the needing to take out umbrella, so i'll switch to sndvls, but i am confident anxiety/dc is a zombie and needs to be dealt with soon.

unvote dodgerchick

vote sndvls

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, so you were:
1. Booted from the Umbrella chat last night?
2. Know the identity of two remaining zombies?
3. Knew that Alan was STARS?

Hmm, must have been pretty lucky with those first three scans.

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, so you were:
1. Booted from the Umbrella chat last night?
2. Know the identity of two remaining zombies?
3. Knew that Alan was STARS?

Hmm, must have been pretty lucky with those first three scans.

I knew st. c was stars too and that glen was zombie don't forget those

[SnDvls]

I'm guarantee you that if I hadn't gotten lynched, I was coming for your pot stirring ass.:D


you should have backed off me I could have help you stay in. ;)

[Lorena]

So how many zombies do we think there are? I'm not a zombie so there's no way for me to know. I'm not sure about the "dealing with DC later" strategy because it will not get you closer to a zombie, I assure you that.

vote Sndvls

Self preservation, obviously.

Since there's a strong possibility that I wont be around by lynch, I'm leaving my vote on him.

[Fouts]

umbrella already have control of the vote because there are 2 zombies left
one original and one convert and enough of us to still win.

the zombies know they need to keep us around to win

I will say it again fouts there is a person on your list who isn't good

If you were still helping us, I might believe what you are saying. I really don't want to take the chance on killing a STARS.

[BrianD]

Just got back from class. I still think the game ends tonight if we lynch Spleen, but I can see where padding the numbers helps us. I just hope we really are down to one zombie as two night kills tonight would be painful.

Unvote Spleen
Vote SnDvls

[Fouts]

Oh, and even if there are 2 zombies, they wouldn't keep you around because you outnumber them. Zombies and Umbrella will need to move against each other very soon.

[Fouts]

I think this is right:

Sndvls 6 - fouts, hoopsguy, Mr. W, LSG, DC, BrianD
DC 1 - Spleen
Fouts 1 - Sndvls

Not voted: Chief Rum

[Fouts]

I think SnDvls, Spleen and Chief Rum make sense as Umbrella. That would mean the zombie is hiding on the SnDvls vote.

[Fouts]

I think I have a good guess on who the PC is, and its too late for the zombies to do anything. We are all out there and they can't kill us all.

[Chief Rum]

I hope it's not too late for this. I have been debating what to do for some time since I got home.

I am the Umbrella seer, James Marcus. There are two zombies left, including one in the "trusted" STARS list Fouts provides (I assume converted). If we lynch SnDvls, that will leave just two of us Umbrella, along with two zombies. And tonight, the zombies will, I am sure, kill a member of STARS, bringing you from four to three.

Three STARS will have plurality, but they won't have a majority. The zombies and us will have four votes, and I assure you, if there's just two of us tomorrow (in Umbrella), we will be voting for STARS, not zombies.

I have played out the scenario a few times in my head, and in that case, most likely the zombies will win. If we kill a zombie tonight, that puts the remaining zombie's back to the wall and moves you closer to your win condition--but we also have a better chance then of winning ourselves.

Do you fear us or the zombies more? You should fear the zombies. And reducing our number tonight, with an assured STARS death tonight by zombies, could give the game to them.

If we kill a zombie tonight, you might win down the road, or we might win. But the odds for both sides increases immensely.

I hope it's not too late.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah...

LYNCH SPLEEN

[Fouts]

Man we need a number cruncher. You are saying it is 4-3-2?

[Fouts]

Chief, the problem is - if spleen is a villager, we lose. If we kill an umbrella, how do we lose? We can still win.

[Fouts]

Oh yeah...

LYNCH SPLEEN

Now you are suggesting there are only 2 Umbrella left, or one of the Umbrella are voting for SnDvls.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, are we to assume that Spleen is a Zombie based on your vote for him here? I have no interest in helping you to lynch a member of STARS here today.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, the problem is - if spleen is a villager, we lose. If we kill an umbrella, how do we lose? We can still win.

Spleen is not a villager, and he will probably be feasting on hoopsguy's brains tonight.

If you kill SnDvls, in the morning, you will be outnumbered 4-3, with Umbrella voting with zombies.

[LoneStarGirl]

Cheif how do you know spleen is not a villager? For once I have to go with fouts, i dont want to risk losing this game tonight. we know who sndvls is,when we lynch him we cannot lose.

I dont think spleen is a STARS but i dont know for sure, so i dont want to put my vote on him.

[Chief Rum]

Now you are suggesting there are only 2 Umbrella left, or one of the Umbrella are voting for SnDvls.

One Umbrella is on SnDvls right now for hiding purposes and disagrees with my thinking. I am hoping that Umbrella will change their mind. SnDvls is the other Umbrella besides this person.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, are we to assume that Spleen is a Zombie based on your vote for him here? I have no interest in helping you to lynch a member of STARS here today.

I wouldn't expect you to, but spleen is not a member of STARS. He may have once been, but as of last night, he was a zombie. He might be the converted. I do not know. It wasn't until last night's weird showdown that I decided to scan him.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, what if I suggested that us lynching a STARS was your only chance of winning at this point in the game and that I think you are bluffing about Spleen?

[Fouts]

You have to see where we are coming from. If spleen is a STARS, and we lose one tonight, we are at 2-3-2. Perfect for Umbrella.

If we kill an umbrella, and lose a STARS tonight, we are at 3-2-2. Not great, but better.

Those both consider you are telling the truth about the amount of zombies.

[hoopsguy]

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

[Fouts]

The other option is spleen is a zombie and we lose a STARS tonight, then its 3-3-1.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, what if I suggested that us lynching a STARS was your only chance of winning at this point in the game and that I think you are bluffing about Spleen?

I realize you would think that, so I working an uphill battle here. All I can say is that spleen and Glen played it off very well last night, because spleen was a zombie while doing that. I was very impressed when I found out spleen's allegiance.

[Fouts]

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

He hinted at that and then backed off and said spleen might be the converted. I don't see it as possible that my list has a converted.

I still think there is just one zombie.

[Chief Rum]

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

After reviewing Fouts' list, actually, no. I made a dumb mistake, was thinking spleen was on his list. Both zombies are not on Fouts' list.

[Chief Rum]

You have to see where we are coming from. If spleen is a STARS, and we lose one tonight, we are at 2-3-2. Perfect for Umbrella.

If we kill an umbrella, and lose a STARS tonight, we are at 3-2-2. Not great, but better.

Those both consider you are telling the truth about the amount of zombies.

Either scenario is not to your benefit.

[hoopsguy]

Rum, Spleen was not on Fouts' list.

I'm not asking you to give away the 2nd zombie - just to confirm that it is one of the people that Fouts' has cleared.

So you are now stating that neither zombie is on Fouts' cleared list?

[Chief Rum]

The other option is spleen is a zombie and we lose a STARS tonight, then its 3-3-1.

Yes, that is what I am aiming for. I am willing to allow you to move closer to your win condition so that we will also have a better chance of winning.

If two zombies live past tonight's lynch, I think they will win.

[Fouts]

Ok, so Chief has claimed Umbrella, and that part is believable. That just leaves spleen, DC and Brian sitting out there.

[Chief Rum]

Rum, Spleen was not on Fouts' list.

I'm not asking you to give away the 2nd zombie - just to confirm that it is one of the people that Fouts' has cleared.

So you are now stating that neither zombie is on Fouts' cleared list?

Yes, sorry, hoops, I made a dumb mistake and read "SnDvls" as spleen when I was putting things together. Neither zombie has been cleared by Fouts.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If we knock Umbrella down to equal with the zombies, they HAVE to cooperate to get rid of a zombie at some point.

[Fouts]

If spleen is the zombie, he voted very early for DC, when it was possible for her to get lynched. Hard to believe they are both zombies.

If Brian is zombie, then it makes sense about his move last night, if there were 2 zombies pitted against each other. Brian has been very hard to pin to a role. He could be zombie, Umbrella or even the PC.

If DC is zombie, see spleen above. I can't see both of them being zombies.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, that said, we've got the numbers right now to move the vote anyway we choose, I think, or no way at all.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Anybody else think we've got something approaching a prisoner's dilemma here? Somebody's going to wind up helping another team win the game.

[Chief Rum]

If we knock Umbrella down to equal with the zombies, they HAVE to cooperate to get rid of a zombie at some point.

Maybe when we're all equal we would. But if this vote sticks, we will be down to two members each of Umbrella and STARS. Zombies will go for the big dogs on the block, since you can do a lot of damage in a vote (plus the most damaging roles are currently held by STARS). We will have to go for you, because after we go to two, we can't afford to kill off a zombie and move you closer to a win with three remaining members.

[Fouts]

If we knock Umbrella down to equal with the zombies, they HAVE to cooperate to get rid of a zombie at some point.

Agreed. I think our best bet remains on SnDvls lynch. If they don't cooperate tomorrow, zombies win. Why would they let the zombies win?

[Chief Rum]

Maybe when we're all equal we would. But if this vote sticks, we will be down to two members each of Umbrella and STARS. Zombies will go for the big dogs on the block, since you can do a lot of damage in a vote (plus the most damaging roles are currently held by STARS). We will have to go for you, because after we go to two, we can't afford to kill off a zombie and move you closer to a win with three remaining members.

Pardon me, we will be down to two members each of Umbrella and zombies. Sorry for the confusion. Now is not the time to have to waste repeating myself in posts for corrections purposes. :rolleyes:

[Chief Rum]

Agreed. I think our best bet remains on SnDvls lynch. If they don't cooperate tomorrow, zombies win. Why would they let the zombies win?

Well, we wouldn't be trying to have the zombies win. We would be trying to bring things equal so we could still have a chance for ourselves. Killing STARS tomorrow would be better for us then zombies, especially since we know who the second zombie is.

[hoopsguy]

I say we take out the Umbrella. If Chief is telling the truth, we still have as good a chance to win the game as any other faction. If Chief is bluffing about either the number of Zombies or the numbers of his faction then we are in a strong position in this game.

If Umbrella and Zombies combine for five votes they could already work in conjunction to take this vote away from us, now that the Umbrella have confirmed four STARS.

I don't buy it. My vote stays where it is.

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, do you have any thoughts?

[spleen1015]

Guys, Chief is flat out freaking lying! He probably scanned me, but he is lying to you about what he found out.

If he is umbrella, he is trying to reduce the number of STARS.

[spleen1015]

Bloody hell.

STARS, look, Umbrella is trying to alter the course of the game today. We need to vote Dodgerchick to take out a zombie.

You guys will see when I turn out STARS.

[Fouts]

I'm not moving either. STARS still has some fight in them.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Does the Umbrella play make sense if it's 5-2-2?

[Chief Rum]

Guys, Chief is flat out freaking lying! He probably scanned me, but he is lying to you about what he found out.

If he is umbrella, he is trying to reduce the number of STARS.

Dude, after last night's play, I wouldn't expect any different from you. You're playing brilliantly. But this has to be where it ends. Good going. :(

[hoopsguy]

Sure, if they can preserve their own membership today and get us to lynch a STARS in the process then they have a good shot at being 3-2-2 going into tomorrow.

[Fouts]

Does the Umbrella play make sense if it's 5-2-2?

It makes a lot of sense at 5-2-2. Going down to 1 member pretty much ends the game for them.

[spleen1015]

Since I am STARS, I am going to vote with my faction-mates.

UNVOTE Dodgerchick
VOTE SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

Shit, well, I tried. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but I am certain a STARS will die tonight, and then we'll have to see where we are.

[spleen1015]

Dude, after last night's play, I wouldn't expect any different from you. You're playing brilliantly. But this has to be where it ends. Good going. :(

You've done a helluva job muddying the water tonight, that's for sure.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, perhaps you can talk the two Zombies to join the three Umbrella on a candidate of your choice?

STARS - do not move your votes. Let them show us that they have the five members that Chief says are out there.

[Chief Rum]

Since I am STARS, I am going to vote with my faction-mates.

UNVOTE Dodgerchick
VOTE SnDvls

Damn, Mr STARS wasn't even in with you guys until now! I didn't even see that.

[spleen1015]

Shit, well, I tried. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but I am certain a STARS will die tonight, and then we'll have to see where we are.

STARS is going to die tonight because we're voting to lynch Umbrella when we should be lynching Dodgerchick.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, perhaps you can talk the two Zombies to join the three Umbrella on a candidate of your choice?

STARS - do not move your votes. Let them show us that they have the five members that Chief says are out there.

Zombies ain't going to switch to lynch their own.

[Chief Rum]

STARS is going to die tonight because we're voting to lynch Umbrella when we should be lynching Dodgerchick.

STARS is going to die tonight, regardless, and you know it better than anyone. Why would you waste a kill on Umbrella? We'll be down to two. I suppose you could kill me, but that leaves the STARS bodyguard, IA and sniper out there. I can put two and two together just fine to see what you and your cohort will do tonight.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The only one of those of us left alive who isn't here is DodgerChick.

[Fouts]

Chief, perhaps you can talk the two Zombies to join the three Umbrella on a candidate of your choice?

STARS - do not move your votes. Let them show us that they have the five members that Chief says are out there.

Good point. According to Chief, they have the numbers right now!

[Chief Rum]

Good point. According to Chief, they have the numbers right now!

There's little incentive for the zombies to work with us right now. We can't communicate with them any more than you can. You have focused on SnDvls, and they don't apparently mind that. They also wouldn't have minded if a STARS member goes down. They only care if one of their own is on the block.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I would think that they would prefer, all things being equal, to take out the faction with the largest numbers.

And us poor STARS, with only four people, would be powerless to stop your two factions' combined voting might.

[hoopsguy]

By the way, good job catching yourself on the Fouts' reveal list - made it so I actually had to think about whether you were lying or not.

[LoneStarGirl]

2 minutes, i guess nothing is going to change

[Chubby]

14 people viewing eh?

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I would think that they would prefer, all things being equal, to take out the faction with the largest numbers.

And us poor STARS, with only four people, would be powerless to stop your two factions' combined voting might.

You will have three after tonight. Not so much voting power there.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, that damn guest is back again!

[Chief Rum]

By the way, good job catching yourself on the Fouts' reveal list - made it so I actually had to think about whether you were lying or not.

That was just pure stupidity. I got in a rush because I realized how little time I had left and didn't properly take in Fouts' list. I saw the 'S' and jumped. Pretty stupid, too, because I read the list last night and do remember it was SnDvls on there now.

[Chubby]

time check

[SnDvls]

Chief, perhaps you can talk the two Zombies to join the three Umbrella on a candidate of your choice?

STARS - do not move your votes. Let them show us that they have the five members that Chief says are out there.

ain't gonna happen I pm'ed them an said let me fall

umbrella will win this game

[Chief Rum]

time check

Crap. :(

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, can we safely assume that if a seer views a convert tonight (Night 5) that they will show up as Zombie instead of as their original faction?

[Fouts]

1 or 2 of these are zombies: spleen, DC, Brian.

Thoughts?

[Chief Rum]

ain't gonna happen I pm'ed them an said let me fall

umbrella will win this game

Nice, you pretty much kiboshed your own faction. Good going. :mad:

[BrianD]

1 or 2 of these are zombies: spleen, DC, Brian.

Thoughts?

I had thought Spleen was zombie today, so I think you are probably right.

[hoopsguy]

1 or 2 of these are zombies: spleen, DC, Brian.

Thoughts?

Brian only makes sense in a Spleen/Brian duo.

[Chubby]

After another exciting evening the city experiences a pretty boring day, it's decided that SnDvls who claimed to be Umbrella but cut off from his partners would be the one who would be executed tonight.

SnDvls was lead out to the center of the town square blindfolded without a struggle. Somewhat anti climaticaly the executioner aims his shotgun and fires three times in SnDvls, dropping him to the ground.

The coroner comes over to administer the blood test and it comes back negative as was expected. He also removes SnDvl's red and white ring from his hand as he closes up the body bag.

Night Five Ends Tues 9am EST

[SnDvls]

Nice, you pretty much kiboshed your own faction. Good going. :mad:

should have given me more info today

[Chubby]

Chubby, can we safely assume that if a seer views a convert tonight (Night 5) that they will show up as Zombie instead of as their original faction?

Since that person is now a zombie, they will show up as zombie.

[spleen1015]

We should have lynched Dodgerchick to take away the ability for 2 zombie kills.

[spleen1015]

Chubby, what happens if an umbrella gets converted? Do they get to PM with both factions?

[Fouts]

Brian only makes sense in a Spleen/Brian duo.

Yes. If there are two, it is spleen/Brian.

[hoopsguy]

Umbrella + Zombie did not have the numbers to move on us tonight. That strongly leads me to believe we have at least five people heading into the night.

With that consideration, Spleen looks marginally better to me.

Dodgerchick remains the odd person out - nothing so far in this game has pointed towards her being part of STARS.

[Fouts]

SnDvls was the Umbrella bodyguard. A good reason to save him.

[Glengoyne]

Hey, Did anyone do a blood test on me?

[hoopsguy]

Yes. If there are two, it is spleen/Brian.

Could potentially be Spleen/DC, but I don't see any way for a DC/Brian pairing.

[Fouts]

Hey, Did anyone do a blood test on me?

I'm not getting near you.

[Chubby]

Chubby, what happens if an umbrella gets converted? Do they get to PM with both factions?

Yes. Otherwise, it would be a dead giveaway if they were all of a sudden not allowed to PM other Umbrella members.

[BrianD]

Yes. If there are two, it is spleen/Brian.

I don't see how that makes sense. If I was a zombie, I wouldn't have put pressure on Spleen today. He sort-of got himself trusted with the fight yesterday, but I pointed out that we shouldn't let him off the hook that easily.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Could potentially be Spleen/DC, but I don't see any way for a DC/Brian pairing.
Maybe I'm dense, but I don't follow the reasoning on this.

[Alan T]

Yes. Otherwise, it would be a dead giveaway if they were all of a sudden not allowed to PM other Umbrella members.

Now that I am dead, can I have PM rights with the zombies too? :D

[Fouts]

Yes. Otherwise, it would be a dead giveaway if they were all of a sudden not allowed to PM other Umbrella members.

Wow, I'd be confused big time receiving PM's from two different groups.

[hoopsguy]

OK, this is important for tomorrow. The list that Fouts published is absolutely, positively, clean.

Night 1 - LSG. I guarded her Night 3, she was not converted.
Night 2 - SnDvls is Umbrella
Night 3 - Me. Seer scan is after Zombie attack, per moderator
Night 4 - MrW. No conversions left after we killed Glen in Day 4 lynch

That gives STARS a clear block of four people - Fouts, LSG, MrW, and me. If one of us is killed, we need to make sure that the other factions do not somehow use FUD to disrupt the 100% belief in the remaining three.

[spleen1015]

Yes. Otherwise, it would be a dead giveaway if they were all of a sudden not allowed to PM other Umbrella members.

Okay.

I firmly believe that Chief is the convert now.

I am going to enjoy another full day in everyone's crosshairs tomorrow, unless the zombies get me. That's unlikely though. I'm still a huge suspect so getting rid of me makes no sense.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Okay.

I firmly believe that Chief is the convert now.
Care to elaborate on your reasoning?

[spleen1015]

OK, this is important for tomorrow. The list that Fouts published is absolutely, positively, clean.

Night 1 - LSG. I guarded her Night 3, she was not converted.
Night 2 - SnDvls is Umbrella
Night 3 - Me. Seer scan is after Zombie attack, per moderator
Night 4 - MrW. No conversions left after we killed Glen in Day 4 lynch

That gives STARS a clear block of four people - Fouts, LSG, MrW, and me. If one of us is killed, we need to make sure that the other factions do not somehow use FUD to disrupt the 100% belief in the remaining three.

I am with you guys. I will vote however you guys want me to. We are 5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hoopsguy]

Maybe I'm dense, but I don't follow the reasoning on this.

DC/Brian would not happen because a Zombie Brian would not have moved his vote from non-Zombie Spleen to Zombie Glen at the deadline yesterday.


Spleen/DC would suggest that Brian trusted my move enough to follow without any clear way to discern between the two candidates (Spleen/Glen). I think this is pretty remote as well, but the above combination I consider a 0% likelihood.

[Chubby]

Now that I am dead, can I have PM rights with the zombies too? :D

I'm sure glen and path would love to talk to you :)

[spleen1015]

Care to elaborate on your reasoning?

I already suspected that he was the convert because of the way he voted yesterday. Knowing that he can converse with both groups makes it that much easier for him to get away with it.

He knows which side everyone in the game is on. He tried to turn my faction against me because I'm on to him.

[Fouts]

I already suspected that he was the convert because of the way he voted yesterday. Knowing that he can converse with both groups makes it that much easier for him to get away with it.

He knows which side everyone in the game is on. He tried to turn my faction against me because I'm on to him.

I think its a reach. Why would a converted Chief Rum attempt to save SnDvls?

[Glengoyne]

I'm sure glen and path would love to talk to you :)

I wanted to infect him, but I kept thinking that somebody was going to lynch him.

[hoopsguy]

Note to Zombies - I will not protect Chief Rum tonight. Bon appetit.

[spleen1015]

I think its a reach. Why would a converted Chief Rum attempt to save SnDvls?

It was more about getting rid of me than it was saving SnDvls.

If there are 5 STARS, then getting rid of one of them helps him win the game. Like I said, he is the convert. So, he knows the faction of every player left in the game. He admitted to looking at the numbers. He knows he has to get rid of STARS to win the game.

[spleen1015]

Note to Zombies - I will not protect Chief Rum tonight. Bon appetit.

Is it possible to eat your own brain?

[Chief Rum]

spleen is trying to divert attention from himself and his four straight STARS votes. Tonight was the first time he voted for someone not on STARS--and he switched late after I revealed he is a zombie.

[Chief Rum]

Note to Zombies - I will not protect Chief Rum tonight. Bon appetit.

lol...they ain't that stupid to go after me tonight. Tomorrow night perhaps.

[hoopsguy]

Figured it would be good to provide them with options ...

I'll take it a step further. I won't be guarding Dodgerchick either. How do I work in a "tastes like chicken" joke without being offensive?

[spleen1015]

spleen is trying to divert attention from himself and his four straight STARS votes. Tonight was the first time he voted for someone not on STARS--and he switched late after I revealed he is a zombie.

Your ploy didn't work.

Guys, there are 5 STARS. We should have lynched Dodgerchick. This would have made it 2 Umbrella and 1 zombie left. One zombie kill tonight getting rid of STARS and we still have 4-3 numbers. We keep getting rid of folks until there aren't anymore to get rid of.

We're in a pickles now with 2 zombies left. We're up 5-1-2, STARS-Umbrella-Zombie. Zombies gets 2 kills tonight if successful. That makes it 3-1-2 most likely.

Mr. W. You have to kill Dodgerchick tonight. Hoops, you have to protect him. Even if we lose 2 tonight and Dodgerchick gets it, then we still have 3-1-1 and we vote to lynch Chief Rum tomorrow. BOOOOOOOOOM! We win the freaking game.

[Chief Rum]

It was more about getting rid of me than it was saving SnDvls.

If there are 5 STARS, then getting rid of one of them helps him win the game. Like I said, he is the convert. So, he knows the faction of every player left in the game. He admitted to looking at the numbers. He knows he has to get rid of STARS to win the game.

I fully admit crunching the numbers. I felt that losing SnDvls would hurt us (Umbrella), of course, and that in general it would lead to a zombie victory, since I was convinced a STARS would then die tonight.

Here's how it looks to me. They get a guaranteed kill tonight, because they will probably pair up. They can't afford to get by tonight without a kill, I think.

If we fail to get a zombie with tomorrow's lynch, that means we kill another STARS or Umbrella, leaving us with the possibility they could go solo tomorrow night and actually win the game with a good dice roll.

[Chief Rum]

Your ploy didn't work.

Guys, there are 5 STARS. We should have lynched Dodgerchick. This would have made it 2 Umbrella and 1 zombie left. One zombie kill tonight getting rid of STARS and we still have 4-3 numbers. We keep getting rid of folks until there aren't anymore to get rid of.

We're in a pickles now with 2 zombies left. We're up 5-1-2, STARS-Umbrella-Zombie. Zombies gets 2 kills tonight if successful. That makes it 3-1-2 most likely.

Mr. W. You have to kill Dodgerchick tonight. Hoops, you have to protect him. Even if we lose 2 tonight and Dodgerchick gets it, then we still have 3-1-1 and we vote to lynch Chief Rum tomorrow. BOOOOOOOOOM! We win the freaking game.

Nice, give STARS their gameplan, so you can go after hoops or Fouts. I'm sure they will leap on that!

[spleen1015]

Nice, give STARS their gameplan, so you can go after hoops or Fouts. I'm sure they will leap on that!

If they want to win then game, they will listen to me.

You guys have to see what he's trying to do here.

[Fouts]

lol...they ain't that stupid to go after me tonight. Tomorrow night perhaps.

You know who the 2 zombies are. Good reason to off you.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, if you are STARS then you should post your strategy. It is entirely possible that we will make a mistake today. Both Umbrella and the Zombies will be trying to make sure that we do make a mistake to enhance their chances of winning.

So, if you have some strategic thoughts that you think we should know, I would encourage you to post them before your game ends.

As far as having a role that doesn't get information, it does leave you in a position of only being able to evaluate posts rather than having your own private stash of information that allows you to make better reads. But that does not mean that you have to go along with the opinion of others. In fact, I think having a plain villager role is a blast in these games because the level of risk is lower. You are not worried about burning a special role. If you go down instead of a special role, it is not as big a loss for the team. I take those games as an invitation to be even more aggressive with my analysis, rather than more passive. OK, time to step off the soapbox ...

hoops, I have done this today. I think the only thing I was wrong about earlier with my groupings is having Fouts as Umbrella. He posted something in response to Alan yesterday that made me think he was Umbrella. Now I can't find the post.

Anyway, I have analyzed the hell out of our situation right now. I know I am right, especially with Chief Rum coming after me like he has tonight. I need you guys to trust me.

[Chief Rum]

You know who the 2 zombies are. Good reason to off you.

The other remaining Umbrella member knows as well. Killing me won't kill that revelation.

[Chief Rum]

hoops, I have done this today. I think the only thing I was wrong about earlier with my groupings is having Fouts as Umbrella. He posted something in response to Alan yesterday that made me think he was Umbrella. Now I can't find the post.

Anyway, I have analyzed the hell out of our situation right now. I know I am right, especially with Chief Rum coming after me like he has tonight. I need you guys to trust me.

Sheesh, is this the beg and plead act again? Please. I still can't believe ti worked last night. Of course, you were both zombies, so good job playing it up. Everyone is then that much more "certain" you are clear.

Too bad I scanned you.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, now that you have made it to the night cycle there is a chance that Fouts scans you and validates your allegiance.

Or he scans someone else, and we react to that data to make assumptions about you. Either way, congrats on making it another day and keeping your WW streak intact.

[spleen1015]

Too bad I scanned you.

You're a lying sack of potatoes! :D

[Chief Rum]

Spleen, now that you have made it to the night cycle there is a chance that Fouts scans you and validates your allegiance.

Or he scans someone else, and we react to that data to make assumptions about you. Either way, congrats on making it another day and keeping your WW streak intact.

I hope he considers doing that. It would end this charade.

[spleen1015]

Spleen, now that you have made it to the night cycle there is a chance that Fouts scans you and validates your allegiance.

Or he scans someone else, and we react to that data to make assumptions about you. Either way, congrats on making it another day and keeping your WW streak intact.

I think Fouts is going to be one of the zombie targets tonight. He can scan Chief Rum and find out that I am telling the truth. So, they will go after him. If by some chance he doesn't die tonight, I think he should scan Chief Rum instead. That will give us better information.

I know this. The zombies won't kill me tonight because that will prove I am STARS.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I know this. The zombies won't kill me tonight because that will prove I am STARS.
Well, that's handy. If you're STARS, they won't kill you because it'll prove it, and if you're a zombie, obviously you'll still be around tomorrow.

[spleen1015]

Good night, guys.

I won't be around as much tomorrow. I have a consultant coming in to work with me tomorrow, so I can't be online working with the guy.

[spleen1015]

Well, that's handy. If you're STARS, they won't kill you because it'll prove it, and if you're a zombie, obviously you'll still be around tomorrow.

They have me right where they want me and all the more reason for Zombie Chief Rum to play me as zombie,.

[hoopsguy]

I've got my "every 2nd Tuesday" meeting tomorrow, which means my access in the morning will be pretty much non-existant. Should be around consistently by mid-afternoon, if the meeting shakes out like most of the others.

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, Fouts, any late thoughts?

Anybody worth taking a shot at, or is it better to sit tight and hope they don't come for me tonight?

[Chief Rum]

Normally, I would be out all day tomorrow working both jobs. But I think tomorrow's lynch will be important enough for me to find Internet access somewhere tomorrow on my lunch break. So expect me to check in and out. Which is unfortunate, but there's not much I can do about that (I even leave before night actions are posted).

[hoopsguy]

MrW, the list of possible zombies is pretty small but without assurances that there are two of them left (do you 100% trust what Rum said today?) I do not know if it is worth taking the shot tonight.

I'm hoping we have a decent amount of control over the game right now. If there is only one Zombie left then they are going to have a very tough time of breaching our CoT. If there are two left then they have interesting risk/reward challenges with their action.

[Lorena]

All caught up... that was an intriguing turn of events in the past few hours. It's been an interesting game for sure, I'm curious to see what tomorrow brings.

Gnite all.

[Fouts]

I don't see how Chief Rum can be a zombie. Spleen is acting all kinds of weird. I just don't see a regular villager working this hard to save his hide. Why is it so important to keep a regular villager around?

[spleen1015]

I don't see how Chief Rum can be a zombie. Spleen is acting all kinds of weird. I just don't see a regular villager working this hard to save his hide. Why is it so important to keep a regular villager around?

This is the first time I have ever been on the defensive. I've never had to be. I'm trying so hard because I know I am right and I don't want you guys to fall for it.

Why shouldn't I try to do everything I can to save myself? It shouldn't matter what role I am. I'm another STARS member so with me alive, you stand a greater chance to win the game.

I'm telling you guys right now, Chief Rum is the convert and Dodgerchick is the other original zombie. Follow Chief Rum's lead and STARS will not win this game.

[Chief Rum]

This is the first time I have ever been on the defensive. I've never had to be. I'm trying so hard because I know I am right and I don't want you guys to fall for it.

Why shouldn't I try to do everything I can to save myself? It shouldn't matter what role I am. I'm another STARS member so with me alive, you stand a greater chance to win the game.

I'm telling you guys right now, Chief Rum is the convert and Dodgerchick is the other original zombie. Follow Chief Rum's lead and STARS will not win this game.

Insert broken record and hit 'Play'.

Why don't you just quote your previous posts rather than re-typing the same thing ad nauseum?

If you really think responding to every post that crosses your viewpoint with the same bull, you do a disservice to the players left in the game, because you're figuring they're dumb enough to fall for the "if I hear it enough it must be true" strategy.

Do you have any evidence that you are STARS? If I were them, I would be looking at your voting record--which is just awful if you are who you claim to be. The one vote you got "right" from the STARS perspective you didn't even go to until late yesterday, well after the STARS had already focused their votes and after I had revealed.

Well, what's done is done. I am sure night actions will reveal some things.

I am out until later today.

[Chief Rum]

This is the first time I have ever been on the defensive. I've never had to be. I'm trying so hard because I know I am right and I don't want you guys to fall for it.

Oh, and one last thing. No, it isn't the first time. You pulled this same desperate crap when it was you and Glengoyne.

[spleen1015]

Oh, and one last thing. No, it isn't the first time. You pulled this same desperate crap when it was you and Glengoyne.

Both situations I am considering this 'time'. This game is the first time I've ever been on the lynching block.

Continue to muddy the water, Chief. The good news for you is they are going to listen to you and you'll likely win the game. You picked the right time to become vocal.

[Chubby]

Raccoon City is on edge as their numbers are quickly dwindling and it seems that there's still zombies on the loose. Everyone meets int he town square to see what happened last night. As they do a quick headcount they realize that lonestargirl is missing!

Everyone runs off to lonestargirl's house to find her dead with her brains eaten in front of the tv. It appears that she was watching a Houston Texans game, maybe the zombies did her a favor?

Day Six Ends Tues 11pm EST

[spleen1015]

STARS, we still have a chance to win the game! There are 4 of us left, 1 Umbrella and 2 zombie. We need to lynch Dodgerchick today and snipe Chief Rum tonight.

VOTE Dodgerchick

I'm not going to give up. If continually stating my case means I am a zombie, then lynch me for it. Chief coming after like he has is proof positive that I am right.

[hoopsguy]

I'll wait to see what Fouts brings to the table today with his view.

I obviously did not guard LSG, and I'm pretty surprised at the kill. Yes she was trusted but she was less of a threat than other roles out there in my opinion.

[Alan T]

It appears that she was watching a Houston Texans game, maybe the zombies did her a favor?



:D

[spleen1015]

I really hope Fouts chose to view Chief Rum to prove that I am right. If he viewed me, then at least he will clear me.

[Glengoyne]

It's Halloween Go zombies!!!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yep, we're waiting on Fouts right now.

[LoneStarGirl]

Haha good one chubby. I dont even watch the houston texans, so there... I feel so special getting night killed for the first time.

But why me? thats weird? I would expect fouts... but maybe the zombies didn't think i would be protected so it would be an easy kill. Good luck STARS

[Lorena]

Wow, LSG?! Interesting and calculated kill, but as LSG mentioned, the zombie/s probably didn't expect her to be guarded.

So we're down to 7. 4-1-2 maybe? Or 4-2-1? The numbers are still on our side which leaves me hopeful.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Eight, actually. Possibly no lynch today, depending on what the remaining Umbrella decide to do.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Er, forgot about the lynch yesterday. Right, only seven.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, we should still control the lynch today, but we gotta make it count.

[Fouts]

I am shocked at being alive still. Give me a sec.

[Fouts]

Well, I decided to view BrianD because I felt strongly that spleen was a zombie and I wanted to see if Brian was working with him. BrianD is Umbrella.

So we are either at 4-2-1 or 3-2-2.

vote spleen

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, that logic seems very backwards to me - why not view Spleen first? Now we are guessing between Spleen and Dodgerchick today. I thought we had agreed that there was almost no scenario where BrianD was a Zombie acting alone?

[BrianD]

Fouts, that logic seems very backwards to me - why not view Spleen first? Now we are guessing between Spleen and Dodgerchick today. I thought we had agreed that there was almost no scenario where BrianD was a Zombie acting alone?

He didn't scan me. He is guessing at what I am to try to get me to admit being bad when he really scanned someone else. If he had really scanned me he would see that I am STARS.

Smart play Fouts, but you guessed the wrong person.

[Mr. Wednesday]

How certain are we that there are two zombies, and not just one?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, it makes a big difference in how to play today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, interesting that Umbrella hasn't made a move yet. Who are they waiting for?

[hoopsguy]

MrW, not certain at all. Umbrella would like us to believe there are two, but no way of knowing.

[Lorena]

Dang fouts, I thought you were gonna scan spleen or myself, now that's gonna leave us in a tight situation as I thought you would have cleared me.

[Chief Rum]

This will be my one post for the day on my lunch break. I won't be able to be back until later tonight, after the deadline.

Of course, I am sticking with my vote from yesterday.

LYNCH SPLEEN

Good hunting, everyone.

[hoopsguy]

Before I went to bed last night I thought the chances of Fouts as Umbrella were about 3%. That number moves up with BrianD as his scan choice for last night, just not sure how high I put the number now.

[Fouts]

Dang fouts, I thought you were gonna scan spleen or myself, now that's gonna leave us in a tight situation as I thought you would have cleared me.

Sorry that I can't hand you guys the game in a handbasket. Somebody do some detective work.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, yesterday you said that Spleen was a Zombie. You also said that you would likely not vote with STARS if we lynched an Umbrella yesterday.

We lynched a Zombie. Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?

[Fouts]

He didn't scan me. He is guessing at what I am to try to get me to admit being bad when he really scanned someone else. If he had really scanned me he would see that I am STARS.

Smart play Fouts, but you guessed the wrong person.

Let me guess, you are claiming a vanilla STARS role, right?

[hoopsguy]

Dola - correction on above post (#2219)

We lynched an Umbrella (not a Zombie). Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?

[Fouts]

Dola - correction on above post (#2219)

We lynched an Umbrella (not a Zombie). Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?

He said that was his one post of the day. I find his vote suspicious, too.

[Fouts]

Before I went to bed last night I thought the chances of Fouts as Umbrella were about 3%. That number moves up with BrianD as his scan choice for last night, just not sure how high I put the number now.

Well, my theory was good last night. Doesn't look as good with Brian not being a zombie. At least it wasn't as bad as the zombies choice for a kill last night.

[BrianD]

So who did you really scan last night Fouts?

[Fouts]

So who did you really scan last night Fouts?

Tell Chief to give up his second zombie and I'll tell you.

[hoopsguy]

MrW - sniper
Hoops - bodyguard
Fouts - IA? no Zombies identified yet
Chief - Umbrella (admitted)
Brian - Umbrella per Fouts
DC - ???
Spleen - Zombie per Chief

Occam's Razor suggests that Brian is the 2nd Umbrella with Chief. Just not sure I buy the Razor at the moment ...

[Fouts]

If we look at it from Chief's perspective, which faction does he want us to lynch today?

If it is 3-2-2 or 4-2-1, I think he wants us to lynch STARS. He knows we have the advantage.

[SnDvls]

I love WW

[hoopsguy]

Every day Chief/Umbrella wants us to lose STARS unless doing so hands the game to the Zombies.

No matter what ratio we have right now (3-2-2 or 4-2-1) he wants us to lycnh STARS today. Of course, if it was 3-2-2 then the Zombies could potentially double kill at night for the win (25% chance).

SnDvls, I share the sentiment.

[Fouts]

We could lynch Chief, if we're worried about lynching a STARS.

[hoopsguy]

Umbrella was not in a position to win yesterday, but they were certainly in a position to take control of the game. Therefore, I believe the following:
- Primary motivation: save their own guy
- Secondary motivation: lead a lynch of a STARS member

Chief voted for Spleen last night and again today. I will not be voting for Spleen today.

VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Fouts]

We'll I was 60/40 in favor of lynching spleen until Chief's vote. Now its a toss-up.

vote dodgerchick

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, if I knew that there was only one Zombie left I would strongly consider voting for Chief.

[Fouts]

I screwed that up.

unvote spleen

vote dodgerchick

[Mr. Wednesday]

I wouldn't say Chief is "admitted" Umbrella, I would say he's "avowed" Umbrella.

The trouble for Umbrella is that they still need to clear out at least one zombie to have a chance at winning. If there's really only one Umbrella left, though, that player is cooked as either Umbrella or STARS would get to their victory condition first.

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE DodgerChick

[Fouts]

Fouts, if I knew that there was only one Zombie left I would strongly consider voting for Chief.

Yeah, it is risky. If you were a zombie, would you only attempt one kill last night?

The night you were attacked, do you think it was our current zombie plus path making kill attempts? And path was killed after he attacked you?

[spleen1015]

I had BrianD pegged as Umbrella. He thinks Chief is still on his side, so I can see him playing this way.

STARS - Mr. W, hoops, Fouts, spleen
Umbrella - Brian D
Zombie - Chief Rum (converted Umbrella), Dodgerchick

[Fouts]

What I'm trying to decided is: would 2 zombies only attempt 1 kill last night?

The night path died, there was one kill + an attack on hoops. Did path get off his action that night before going down?

[Mr. Wednesday]

What's our play if DodgerChick turns out to be STARS?

[Mr. Wednesday]

What I'm trying to decided is: would 2 zombies only attempt 1 kill last night?
Why they might: guarantees a kill, they think we're still in the dark about who's on what side and they can still squeeze out a victory

Why they might not: only killing one STARS would potentially leave STARS in control of the vote, where it's probably better for the zombies for none of the factions to have a majority.

[BrianD]

Vote Dodgerchick

[hoopsguy]

MrW, if we have a bad lynch today then:

3-2-1, Zombies take their shot with a night kill, I have a 33% chance of blocking it.

2-2-2 Zombies can go for the win or play it cautiously with their night kill by going for an Umbrella knowing that I'm much more likely to defend a known STARS.

You have the option to use your night Snipe in either scenario.

[Fouts]

MrW, if we have a bad lynch today then:

3-2-1, Zombies take their shot with a night kill, I have a 33% chance of blocking it.

2-2-2 Zombies can go for the win or play it cautiously with their night kill by going for an Umbrella knowing that I'm much more likely to defend a known STARS.

You have the option to use your night Snipe in either scenario.

If Mr. W is wrong, we lose both him and the target. Game over.

[Fouts]

Vote Dodgerchick

I'd really like to know how you are trying to win. You and I know what you are, so what is your motivation?

I know you will still claim to be STARS, but how do you see Umbrella winning this one?

[Lorena]

Well... from the looks of it, I'm a gonner. I've attempted a defense in prior games and have yet to be successful because I'm just not persuasive, or have the experience most of you have.

By lynching me you will not lynch a zombie, unfortunately. So I'm gonna have to

vote spleen

Spleen is trying WAAAAAAY too hard which seems suspicious and the voting record speaks for itself. Of course after he was found out, he "went along with the crowd" as a sort of cover.

I'm gonna be super, super busy getting the kids ready for trick-or-treat so I'll be gone for several hours and I hope to come back by lynch.

[spleen1015]

The zombies were hoping that you would still be focused on me today. Plus, have 2 go for 1 is a 100% kill where 2 for 2 is only 50%.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Having two attempt kills has a 25% chance of no kill, 50% chance of one kill, 25% chance of two kills.

[BrianD]

I'd really like to know how you are trying to win. You and I know what you are, so what is your motivation?

I know you will still claim to be STARS, but how do you see Umbrella winning this one?

Umbrella is not going to win this one. Neither are the zombies. We tried a bluff yesterday with the claim that there were two zombies remaining, but nobody bought it. All we can do now is take out the last zombie and move on.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I wish you had scanned someone else but after a review of Day 2 posts I believe your scan results.

Post #772
Has everybody forgotten about the st.cronin "you all suck, I'm going home" move? Am I the only one that still thinks that was an act of desperation of a condemned man? I'm surprised it worked as well as it seems to have.

Vote at the time?
Lathum (Umbrella) - 5
Cronin (STARS) - 4
SnDvls (Umbrella) - 3
Brian (Umbrella) -2
Alan (STARS) - 2

Then Chief (Umbrella) rolled in and initially voted for Cronin to tie it up, before switching when he realized how that could play out for his faction.