WW XCIII - Mine Wars - Battle of Blair Mountain - SYMPATHIZERS WIN!!!

[TheNorm]

Norm, I changed my vote b/c I think I know what you are. I would suggest you reveal all of your scans before night if you are what I think you are. I would also suggest Poli protect you.

I may be wrong on this however.

Yeah, I was going to do this because I think I've dropped enough hints already, and since it appears this camp is at a loss for us it's important that we thin the sympathizers out a little bit. *Puts on Encyclopedia Brown hat* :D

On night 1 I investigated Lathum purely on reputation--he's Labor.
For the next few nights I chose to investigate those that went on the mission because I thought it was an absolute certainty a sympathizer would go there. Poli turned up as labor on night two. I chose Jackal on night 3 and he is definitely working the other side.

...and EF, I've read over my description a bunch of times and I'm only a x1 without a gun.

[Danny]

Looks like I was right

Vote Jackal

[EagleFan]

Yeah, I was going to do this because I think I've dropped enough hints already, and since it appears this camp is at a loss for us it's important that we thin the sympathizers out a little bit. *Puts on Encyclopedia Brown hat* :D

On night 1 I investigated Lathum purely on reputation--he's Labor.
For the next few nights I chose to investigate those that went on the mission because I thought it was an absolute certainty a sympathizer would go there. Poli turned up as labor on night two. I chose Jackal on night 3 and he is definitely working the other side.

...and EF, I've read over my description a bunch of times and I'm only a x1 without a gun.

I am curious where PB stands, not trying to influence the scan but his flop on day 2 stood out to me more than yours did to be honest.

[Danny]

I agree.

This adds a very nice CoT for us with: BK, Poli, TheNorm and myself

This narrows down the list of other potential choices.

While I should not be in a trust list, I think my pushing so strong for Jackal yesterday should buy me a little bit of trust.

[EagleFan]

While I should not be in a trust list, I think my pushing so strong for Jackal yesterday should buy me a little bit of trust.

You'll make the second tier list. ;)

[EagleFan]

This could be a nice run by the roled players. A duke to a sympathizer, seer reveals another and the BG with a block.

[Danny]

I'm also taking an assist for the scan on Jackal, TheNorm believed in my my read enough to scan him! :lol:

[PurdueBrad]

I will follow the Norm on this line of thinking as well.

vote the Jackal

[Danny]

I will follow the Norm on this line of thinking as well.

vote the Jackal

This post sounds very odd considering Norm is the seer and outed a wolf, I don't think it's really following someone on a line of thinking.

[Danny]

1. Poli
2. Lathum
4. dubb
5. claphamsa
6. ntndeacon
7. USFLTecmo
8. TheNorm
9. EagleFan
10. Glengoyne
11. Chief Rum
12. DaddyTorgo
13. Danny
14. PurdueBrad
17. The Jackal
18. RendeR
19. Barkeep
20. jeheinz

We have a nice trust list going now.

[PurdueBrad]

Some people know I don't vote early, and here I am doing so now. That should tell you a lot.


Ummm, I thought Norm was staying a little tongue in cheek Danny, see what I'll quote below. Sorry for not announcing "NORM IS SEER, I WILL FOLLOW HIM WHEREVER HE MAY GO"

[PurdueBrad]

Dola- put quote in the wrong place, meant quote above.

[PurdueBrad]

Although NM, I also just saw his post above where he lists his scans. Sorry for not reading all the way through and voting when I saw Norm first announce it.

And can you pat yourself on the back and beg for trust a little more Danny, while we're over-analyzing quotes?

[Danny]

Yeah, I was going to do this because I think I've dropped enough hints already, and since it appears this camp is at a loss for us it's important that we thin the sympathizers out a little bit. *Puts on Encyclopedia Brown hat* :D

On night 1 I investigated Lathum purely on reputation--he's Labor.
For the next few nights I chose to investigate those that went on the mission because I thought it was an absolute certainty a sympathizer would go there. Poli turned up as labor on night two. I chose Jackal on night 3 and he is definitely working the other side.

...and EF, I've read over my description a bunch of times and I'm only a x1 without a gun.

I think this post made it pretty darn obvious :p

[PurdueBrad]

Although NM, I also just saw his post above where he lists his scans. Sorry for not reading all the way through and voting when I saw Norm first announce it.

I think this quote should pretty well explain why I didn't see that one. I went with him immediately, didn't wait to read through.

[Danny]

Although NM, I also just saw his post above where he lists his scans. Sorry for not reading all the way through and voting when I saw Norm first announce it.

And can you pat yourself on the back and beg for trust a little more Danny, while we're over-analyzing quotes?

Come on, you know my post was very tongue in cheek.

[PurdueBrad]

I hope you know I'm just giving you shit and not being seriously pissy.

[Danny]

I think this quote should pretty well explain why I didn't see that one. I went with him immediately, didn't wait to read through.

Ok, fair enough then.

[PurdueBrad]

So what job is Jackal? I didn't keep a list but I'm wondering if we can narrow it down as there are no wolves that have duplicate responsibilities.

[Danny]

I hope you know I'm just giving you shit and not being seriously pissy.

You can be pissy, just don't piss on me :D. Even though I know we have to work long hours in a pretty tight space

[Danny]

TheNorm, obviously it's up to you, but I wouldn't mind a Chief Rum scan. He is dangerous as both villager and wolf, so knowing where his allegiance is would be a big help.

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, did you see my above question?

I'm just thinking: Pass was a hunter, as is Norm and Autumn was. 1 bad guy, 2 good.

If we look at jobs, we can narrow down our shots on this I think.

[Danny]

I'll look for Jackals job. But I do think we need to be cautious about thinking each job only got a maximum of 1 wolf. It may have been completely random.

[Danny]

1. Poli Searching
2. Lathum Food Distribution
3. Passacaglia Hunting
4. dubb Gladhandling
5. claphamsa Gladhandling
6. ntndeacon x3
7. USFLTecmo Patrolling
8. TheNorm
9. EagleFan Food Distribution
10. Schmidty
11. Chief Rum Patrolling
12. DaddyTorgo Oratory
13. Danny Food Distribution
14. PurdueBrad Oratory
15. Autumn Hunting
16. path Treasury
17. The Jackal Searching
18. RendeR Searching
19. Barkeep Treasury
20. jeheinz Gladhandling

[Danny]

Render is the only other searcher and I do feel pretty good about him already.

[PurdueBrad]

Knowing Abe, that is very possible as he and his dice rule most things, but it may not be a bad idea. I'm just thinking that we would've been screwed if 2 wolves were on the same job because even had we caught and ousted them, that means we would lose our workers when those needs came up on a mission or camp.

[PurdueBrad]

Yeah, exactly. Thanks Danny. I feel good about RendeR as well.

We should probably look oratory, patrolling, gladhanding, or food distribution. It doesn't narrow us a ton, but some.

[Danny]

Lathum, EF and I are the food distributors. Barring a cunning role, both EF and Lathum are good, so I know all food distribs are good.

[Danny]

We can also look at the voting now that we know Jackal is bad, so I will do that now.

[PurdueBrad]

Oratory: PB, DT
Patrolling: USFL, CR
Gladhanding: Dubb, Claph, Heinz
Food: Danny, Lathum, EF

From that list, EF and USFL are cleared and Danny has garnered some trust. That leaves PB, DT, CR, Dubb, Claph, Heinz, and Lathum.

[PurdueBrad]

Yeah, forgot about Norm's scan on Lathum.

So that leaves PB, DT, CR, Dubb, Claph, and Heinz.

[PurdueBrad]

I figure we have 2 or 3 wolves remaining (4 or 5 for a 20 person game seems right), that means we have a 2/6 or 3/6 shot of hitting there. I like that possibility.

[PurdueBrad]

*remaining numbers are after the Jackal lynch.

[Danny]

914 EF Votes PB
986 Pass votes Poli
989 Pass unvotes Poli
991 Pass votes Poli
998 Poli votes Pass
1063 Heinze votes Autumn
1116 Clap votes Pass
1134 Lathum votes Render
1149 Poli unvotes pass
1154 Pass unvotes Poli
1154 Pass votes Clap
1166 Danny votes Jackal
1190 Autumn votes Render
1202 Poli votes the Jackal
1205 The Jackal votes Render
1209 Dubb votes Render
1216 Heinze unvotes Autumn
1216 Heinze votes Jackal
1250 Dubb unvotes render
1250 Dubb votes BK
1255 CR votes Autumn
1300 Dubb unvotes BK
1304 Dubb votes Jackal
1312 BK votes Jackal
1331 Pass unvotes Clap
1331 Pass votes Render
1334 PB votes Jackal
1340 EF unvotes PB
1340 EF votes Jackal
1341 Dubb unvotes JAckal
1341 Dubb votes Render
1354 Render votes Jackal
1358 USFL votes Schmidty
1361 Dubb unvotes render
1361 Dubb votes Schmidty
1370 TheNorm votes no lynch
1372 The Jackal unvotes Render
1372 The Jackal votes Schmidty
1372- EF unvotes Jackal
1372- EF votes PB
1377 The Jackal unvotes Schmidty
1377 The JAckal votes Render

Reposted from Lathum's post. Jeheinz made a key third vote on the Jackal. Clap put a second vote on Pass early. I think both are unlikely wolf moves.

Who stands out to me here is Dubb. He initially put a second vote on Render and then switched to BK around the time Pass put a vote on Render perhaps to spread out the wolves votes. Then then voted Jackal, but unvoted him when a convinient excuse for voting Schmidty came up. He was also pretty adamant about voting for schmidty the next day. Barring a scan, I see my vote going here next.

[Danny]

Oratory: PB, DT
Patrolling: USFL, CR
Gladhanding: Dubb, Claph, Heinz
Food: Danny, Lathum, EF

From that list, EF and USFL are cleared and Danny has garnered some trust. That leaves PB, DT, CR, Dubb, Claph, Heinz, and Lathum.

Is USFL trusted? I don't remember that

[PurdueBrad]

He was kidnapped like EF was, assumed that probably cleared him.

[Danny]

PB also put a pretty key vote on The Jackal as well.

[Danny]

He was kidnapped like EF was, assumed that probably cleared him.

I think the wolves would definitely consider arresting their own if it meant the camps would fail. Especially since they get released pretty quickly.

[PurdueBrad]

Then then voted Jackal, but unvoted him when a convinient excuse for voting Schmidty came up. He was also pretty adamant about voting for schmidty the next day. Barring a scan, I see my vote going here next.

Yeah, but as the posts show, I damn near made this change as well. It's not an excuse for him but I'll say, the temptation was really there to vote for Schmidty just because it screwed us.

[Danny]

I also think USFL vote on Schmidty is a bit suspicious as it was clear at that point Render wasn't garnering enough support and Schmidty had a very convenient reason for voting him attached that a wolf could hide under.

[Danny]

Yeah, but as the posts show, I damn near made this change as well. It's not an excuse for him but I'll say, the temptation was really there to vote for Schmidty just because it screwed us.

Which is why it was a good wolf play to put Schmidty out there. It would be very tempting for a frustrated villager to go along with it and then when he came up clean, it would be very convenient to say we ousted someone who didn't work.

[Danny]

This is my list of players

Trust
Poli
Lathum
EagleFan
Barkeep
The Norm
Danny

Leaning towards trusting
Jeheinz
Claphamsa
Render

In the middle on
PurdueBrad
Chief Rum
Ntndeacon
Glengoyne
DaddyTorgo

Am suspicious of
Dubb
USFL

[PurdueBrad]

Cross-referencing your list and my list, I can narrow it to three that I would consider (and maybe a fourth as I'm consider the USFL arrest, although that move seems Hoopsian [he's my nemesis, so I measure any clever moves agains him, it's kind of like WWHD or What Would Hoops Do (in order to screw me over)]). So I would look DT, Dubb, CR, and yeah, I guess USFL.

Also, embarrassingly enough, it wasn't until three days ago that I realized Hoops wasn't playing. And I thought Alan was too for a while.

[Danny]

Cross-referencing your list and my list, I can narrow it to three that I would consider (and maybe a fourth as I'm consider the USFL arrest, although that move seems Hoopsian [he's my nemesis, so I measure any clever moves agains him, it's kind of like WWHD or What Would Hoops Do (in order to screw me over)]). So I would look DT, Dubb, CR, and yeah, I guess USFL.

Also, embarrassingly enough, it wasn't until three days ago that I realized Hoops wasn't playing. And I thought Alan was too for a while.

That's a good list I think. That's why I am hoping the scan is one of those so we can narrow down the choices.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE JACKAL

well done Norm!

[dubb93]

Since it seems I am going to be the vote tomarrow I would like to request I am the scan tonight. Atleast this way we get 1 more cleared villager.

[The Jackal]

Fudge.

[The Jackal]

Go sympathizers, you know who you are.

[Abe Sargent]

In late 1912, in order to stop the strikes in Cabin and Paint Creek, and after deploying all national guard units at these sites that WV had, Governor Glasscock orders representatives from the company and labor to meet in the House of Delegates chamber to work out the issues. Labor sent hundreds of their top representatives, while the companies failed to show, sending a single lawyer to say they were not interested in negotiations.

[The Jackal]

Why would we want to negotiate? Stranglehold, baby.

[Lathum]

I don't advise scanning Dubb. If I was a wolf in his spot I would want the last scan to be a waste.

Thanks for scanning me Norm! I say scan CR also, or USFL.

[TheNorm]

Well with Jackal's last few posts it's apparent we got one of 'em...and also very apparent that I've got maybe two days left here tops. Gotta make 'em count. :cool:

I haven't decided whom to scan when night falls, but I'll be sure to post it once I turn my action in. I'm all for listening to discussion on it the next little while though.

[TheNorm]

While I should not be in a trust list, I think my pushing so strong for Jackal yesterday should buy me a little bit of trust.

When you posted that it gave me a good cover to throw my vote out there--unfortunately the situation changed and it forced me to defend myself. Appreciate it though! :)

[Danny]

I strongly agree with Lathum that it would be best not to scan Dubb. I would love CR cleared/caught personally, but I think USFL isn't a bad choice either.

[TheNorm]

Hey Abe, is it possible to investigate someone while they are in jail?

[The Jackal]

Hey Abe, is it possible to investigate someone while they are in jail?

What are you, invisible?

[dubb93]

I don't advise scanning Dubb. If I was a wolf in his spot I would want the last scan to be a waste.



?????

How the fuck does that make any sense? If I was a wolf I would want the last scan to be a waste, but yet I want myself scanned? Wouldn't that out me if I was a wolf??????

That doesn't make ANY fucking sense.

[dubb93]

I strongly agree with Lathum that it would be best not to scan Dubb. I would love CR cleared/caught personally, but I think USFL isn't a bad choice either.

Why are you trying to railroad me? You don't want me scanned so I'm an easy target for you tomarrow?

[dubb93]

Clearly wanting to be scanned by the seer is a wolf move.

[hoopsguy]

Cross-referencing your list and my list, I can narrow it to three that I would consider (and maybe a fourth as I'm consider the USFL arrest, although that move seems Hoopsian [he's my nemesis, so I measure any clever moves agains him, it's kind of like WWHD or What Would Hoops Do (in order to screw me over)]). So I would look DT, Dubb, CR, and yeah, I guess USFL.

Also, embarrassingly enough, it wasn't until three days ago that I realized Hoops wasn't playing. And I thought Alan was too for a while.

Stuff like this is why I can't quit you, PurdueBrad :)

I'm pretty sure I would have had fun this game, but my work schedule was really, really hectic this week. I only caught up with reading the game this morning.

[Lathum]

?????

How the fuck does that make any sense? If I was a wolf I would want the last scan to be a waste, but yet I want myself scanned? Wouldn't that out me if I was a wolf??????

That doesn't make ANY fucking sense.

are you serious?

your reaction tells me even more you are a wolf.

it's pretty simple actually.

You think you are the vote tomorrow, you ask to be scanned so instead of us clearing another villager we just reaffirm our lynch choice.

You are way to smart a player to not see the logic there.

[dubb93]

are you serious?

your reaction tells me even more you are a wolf.

it's pretty simple actually.

You think you are the vote tomorrow, you ask to be scanned so instead of us clearing another villager we just reaffirm our lynch choice.

You are way to smart a player to not see the logic there.

Whatever, just fucking vote me. Show how smart you are.

[dubb93]

I was obvious caught by Lathum's awesome analysis here. It's so good he has managed to convince himself a laborer is a wolf.

[Lathum]

Whatever, just fucking vote me. Show how smart you are.

why you so touchy?

[Danny]

Why are you trying to railroad me? You don't want me scanned so I'm an easy target for you tomarrow?

Why are you taking it so personally? Fact is, you're likely to be the target next lynch. By scanning you, you can avoid either us catching another wolf or clearing someone like CR who would be of great value to us as a trusted person.

[Glengoyne]

Welcome aboard glen.. first matter of business - get your orders in on time!

I'm caught up enough enough to get this now.

I have to admit a few pages back, I was saying "Oh If those bastards vote me out after reading 1500 posts of their bickering"

[Glengoyne]

So much for getting a good perspective reading all at once there....TheNorm's reveal pretty much had me tossing out my suspect list. My instincts are all wrong. First I figured Poli was a company man, then I was torn between TheNorm and The Jackal(Okay so somewhat on target).

I'd say I was rusty, but that would imply that I used to have some chops. In any case, I'll now announce my presence in this game by making a very safe move.

VOTE The Jackal

I won't say that my instincts were all wrong though. Before the mission today I was shouting at my computer "NO...NO....Don't leave no margin for error. Remember the Arrest!" On Danny's suggestion to send all 20 on the mission....I would have gone the other way. no one on the mission, focus all on converting the camp.

[Glengoyne]

All that work catching up...and now I'm stuck with the realization that I'm playing with myself.

<Trying to bond with Lathum>

[Lathum]

I'm here for you man

[Danny]

*quietly leaves the room after reading the last two posts*

[Danny]

I also think Glengoyne is likely good as well. We've all commented on how Schmidty is more active when he has a role and I think he was a villager.

[Poli]

UNVOTE DUBB
VOTE THE JACKAL

Good job, Norm. Looks like I wasn't too far off base in the last game day, then.

So, Jack, how'd you like the protect job I pulled on Eaglefan? Wasn't that awesome?

[Poli]

UNVOTE DUBB
VOTE THE JACKAL

[dubb93]

Why are you taking it so personally? Fact is, you're likely to be the target next lynch. By scanning you, you can avoid either us catching another wolf or clearing someone like CR who would be of great value to us as a trusted person.

Fact is by voting me tomarrow and not scanning me tonight you waste a vote on a villager.

[dubb93]

You guys wonder why I'm getting so pissed..

You are telling me that I'm the vote tomarrow.

I'm asking to be scanned.

You are saying this is a wasted scan as I'm going to be the lynch tomarrow.

I'm asking to be scanned.

You tell me I'm getting lynched tomarrow and that by scanning me you are missing a chance to clear someone else, that I guess, I should just accept my lynching.

Am I not worth being cleared? And why should I just accept my lynching when I know I'm a villager?

[Danny]

Fact is by voting me tomarrow and not scanning me tonight you waste a vote on a villager.

I don't really buy the play when a vanilla villager says scan me. If I was a possibility to be scanned I would rather Norm scan someone else and potentially find a wolf and have everyone lynch me then have no chance at finding a wolf by scanning me.

Asking to be scanned usually has an ulterior motive and since we have our roles out there, it's likely not the motive of clearing someone with an important role.

You may be good, but I still don't like the play of pushing to be scanned yourself.

[Danny]

You guys wonder why I'm getting so pissed..

You are telling me that I'm the vote tomarrow.

I'm asking to be scanned.

You are saying this is a wasted scan as I'm going to be the lynch tomarrow.

I'm asking to be scanned.

You tell me I'm getting lynched tomarrow and that by scanning me you are missing a chance to clear someone else, that I guess, I should just accept my lynching.

Am I not worth being cleared? And why should I just accept my lynching when I know I'm a villager?

You shouldn't accept your lynching, but if you are a villager then you should want someone else who might be a wolf scanned and then try and avoid the lynch the old fashioned way.

[EagleFan]

Is there a cunning? If there is, that doesn't completely clear the good scans.

Not saying we should suspect them, just don't want us to overlook that, or the chance that someone could be bribed.

[Danny]

Is there a cunning? If there is, that doesn't completely clear the good scans.

Not saying we should suspect them, just don't want us to overlook that, or the chance that someone could be bribed.

Of course and there's definitely the chance someone was bribed the first night that there was no kill. Every other night we a night action that eliminates a bribe.

[Abe Sargent]

Hey Abe, is it possible to investigate someone while they are in jail?

While someone is arrested they are not in the game at all.

[Danny]

My opinion that a bribe has not been done yet as the first no kill night seems too early in the game for a bribe. I'm guessing the wolves accumulate money each night and probably couldn't start off the game with a bribe.

[dubb93]

I don't really buy the play when a vanilla villager says scan me. If I was a possibility to be scanned I would rather Norm scan someone else and potentially find a wolf and have everyone lynch me then have no chance at finding a wolf by scanning me.

Asking to be scanned usually has an ulterior motive and since we have our roles out there, it's likely not the motive of clearing someone with an important role.

You may be good, but I still don't like the play of pushing to be scanned yourself.

So you are saying that a CoT has never won a game? A CoT is the easiest way to win a game, the bigger the CoT the easier the game becomes. It is not always about finding wolves. If a seer can come out and clear half the villager he has done more than he would have if he came out and figured a wolf or two.

[EagleFan]

As of 1831:

Work:
Hunting - Danny (1534), Barkeep49 (1536), jeheinz72 (1593), ntndeacon (1599), The Jackal (1626), TheNorm (1651), EagleFan (1706), dubb93 (1724), PurdueBrad (1729) (9/10)
Patrol - Chief Rum x3 (1528), Lathum (1709) (4/10)
Mission - claphamsa (1588), DaddyTorgo (1608), Poli (1620) (3/?) - locked (1632)
Jail - USFLTecmo (1642)

Voting:
Jackal 9 - TheNorm (1545), Lathum (1708), EagleFan (1743), dubb93 (1745), Danny (1752), PurdueBrad (1758), DaddyTorgo (1795), Glengoyne (1817), Poli (1823)
TheNorm 1 - jeheinz72 (1682)


No work orders: Glengoyne, RendeR

No vote: claphamsa, ntndeacon, Chief Rum, The Jackal, RendeR, Barkeep49

[Danny]

So you are saying that a CoT has never won a game? A CoT is the easiest way to win a game, the bigger the CoT the easier the game becomes. It is not always about finding wolves. If a seer can come out and clear half the villager he has done more than he would have if he came out and figured a wolf or two.

Any by scanning someone else he can also clear a villager, but there is the possibility he finds a wolf. It's not a question of a 6 person CoT vs 1 wolf, we already have 5 in the CoT. Finding a wolf is far greater than clearing one more person. I stand by what I said, as a villager I would rather have someone else scanned which will either clear them or find a wolf and then have me lynched then be scanned. It's not the selfish play, but a better villager play, I don't see how any logic could say otherwise.

[Danny]

I think moving forward is when we really have to worry about a potential bribe.

[Poli]

What's the 3/? on me for, Eags?

[dubb93]

Any by scanning someone else he can also clear a villager, but there is the possibility he finds a wolf. It's not a question of a 6 person CoT vs 1 wolf, we already have 5 in the CoT. Finding a wolf is far greater than clearing one more person. I stand by what I said, as a villager I would rather have someone else scanned which will either clear them or find a wolf and then have me lynched then be scanned. It's not the selfish play, but a better villager play, I don't see how any logic could say otherwise.

All logic says lynching me is a horrible play. I can't sit by and let myself get lynched. If you are saying that by scanning someone else there is a chance of villager/wolf then why are you not willing to admit I could be villager? Why do you appear to be dead set for lynching me and not allowing me to be cleared?

[EagleFan]

CoT:
Poli
Barkeep
TheNorm
EagleFan

Outer Ring (a possible cunning is all the keeps him fro a lock at the moment):
Lathum

Good feel about:
Glengoyne/Schmidty
Danny
RendeR

Sympathiser
The Jackal

4. dubb - a lot of suspicion around him at the moment
5. claphamsa - no good read at the moment
6. ntndeacon - is he playing? ;)
7. USFLTecmo - wolf plan to arrest their own?
11. Chief Rum - haven't seen his usual lay it all on the line posts that I've seen from him when he is a villager
12. DaddyTorgo - seems to be doing a lot of following, have seen that as a wolf
14. PurdueBrad - still suspicious of the switch from the mission day 2, especially now with TheNorm being good and Jackal being bad (didn't Jackal go on the mission that day? It would make sense that they did not want multiple wolves on the mission when they decided to arrest me)
20. jeheinz - I always think he is a wolf, need to look at a little more as Ihave no read at the moment.

[EagleFan]

What's the 3/? on me for, Eags?

That was the mission totals. We had 3 people with an unknown number needed, hence the 3/?.

[Danny]

All logic says lynching me is a horrible play. I can't sit by and let myself get lynched. If you are saying that by scanning someone else there is a chance of villager/wolf then why are you not willing to admit I could be villager? Why do you appear to be dead set for lynching me and not allowing me to be cleared?

I already said you could be good and I never said I am certain to vote for you.

You still can't create an argument that refutes the logic I laid out that as a villager it is a better play for the village to encourage someone else to be scanned. Worse case a different villager gets cleared. Best case, a wolf is nabbed.

[EagleFan]

I think moving forward is when we really have to worry about a potential bribe.

I agree whole heartedly. I would guess that Lathum or I would be the top targets for a bribe at the moment. Of course there is always the risk for them that we can't be bribed. I wonder how an unsuccessful bribe would hurt them. Realistically you would think that the person would be uncovered as it should be pretty obvious who you are turning down for a bribe.

[Danny]

Realistically you would think that the person would be uncovered as it should be pretty obvious who you are turning down for a bribe.

I'd have to think so and that is the risk in the wolves attempting a bribe. Otherwise there is no downside to the wolves attempting the bribe.

[EagleFan]

Hunting shows us a 9/10 so far but that should probably read 8/10 as Jackal shouldn't be counted.

[Poli]

Gotcha, and agreed. I'm hitting the hay, gentlemen.

[EagleFan]

Work Breakdown

Day One
Gladhandling: jeheinz72, claphamsa, dubb93, Lathum, Schmidty
Oratory: Passacaglia, PurdueBrad, Autumn, DaddyTorgo, Chief Rum, USFLTecmo, path12

Mission: Poli, Jackal, RendeR, ntndeacon, Danny, EagleFan, Barkeep49, TheNorm


Day Two
Patrol: Chief Rum, USFLTecmo
Food Distirbution: Lathum, Barkeep49, PurdueBrad, jeheinz72, dubb93, Autumn, TheNorm, Danny, Passacaglia
Organizing: claphamsa, Schmidty, ntndeacon, DaddyTorgo

Mission: Poli, Jackal, RendeR

Arrested: EagleFan


Day Three
Gladhandling: dubb93, claphamsa, jeheinz72
Oratory: DaddyTorgo, Autumn, RendeR
Treasury: Barkeep49, EagleFan, USFLTecmo, Lathum, TheNorm, Chief Rum
Organization: PurdueBrad, ntndeacon, Poli, Jackal, Passacaglia

[EagleFan]

What if Schmidty (now Glengoyne) is a sympathiser.

We were succeful on day one. Day two we failed because they had me arrested, day three we failed because Schmidty did nothing, day four we will probably fail because of an arrest.

Each failure was due to a x3 missing work. We know that 2 were directly because of the actions of sympathisers. The day that Schmidty missed both Jackal and Pass were on the same task. They could not have been planning on faking work and giving us at least a 2/5 chance of nailing a sympathiser.

Could Schmidty missing have been part of the plan?

[Danny]

I really don't think Schmidty planned to not be active, miss his work and then drop the game. Even if he was a sympathizer I don't think he missed his work on purpose.

[Chief Rum]

[COLOR="Green"]
11. Chief Rum - haven't seen his usual lay it all on the line posts that I've seen from him when he is a villager.

Well, I haven't read the whole thread yet, but I could pull something outta my ass if you want. ;)

[RendeR]

I'll add my one point to finish off Hunting and of course vote Jackal

WORK HUNTING

VOTE THE JACKAL

may not be back on before deadline tonight, I'll catch up whenever I can make it back.

[claphamsa]

vote jackyl

[claphamsa]

I was gonna comment, that I dont really trust DT.... hes not angry, when was the last time that happend in a WW game? :D

[Barkeep49]

Vote Jackal

What's our reasoning against dubb?

[Barkeep49]

And I mean before the whole "scan me" thing. If I'm a villager, I'm not willing to just lie down and die as someone suggested and so I would want to be scanned. I know 100% that I'm good. If I die there's a 0% chance of finding a wolf. Anyone else? Maybe a wolf. So if I'm a villager, please scan me. I don't find anything improper about dubb wanting to be scanned.

That said, I'm hardly convinced of his innocence. That's why I'm hoping to be reminded what made people suspicious of him in the first place. It seems like Lathum/Danny started pushing him hard out of nowhere.

[Glengoyne]

OK where should I put my work effort?

Does it matter? From my understanding we're doomed for another day, but maybe I'm missing something.

[Lathum]

And I mean before the whole "scan me" thing. If I'm a villager, I'm not willing to just lie down and die as someone suggested and so I would want to be scanned. I know 100% that I'm good. If I die there's a 0% chance of finding a wolf. Anyone else? Maybe a wolf. So if I'm a villager, please scan me. I don't find anything improper about dubb wanting to be scanned.

That said, I'm hardly convinced of his innocence. That's why I'm hoping to be reminded what made people suspicious of him in the first place. It seems like Lathum/Danny started pushing him hard out of nowhere.

look at the votes from day 2, he was all over the place, that raised red flags for me.

[Glengoyne]

Do we get any points for pushing over the requirement for hunting?

If so, then I'll opt for that, but I don't believe we get partial credit.

So for now I'll throw my one point of labor into patrol.

WORK Patrol

If I someone can make a reasonable argument to do more than 10 units of hunting, then I'm willing to swap. But given my previous track record of shirking responsibility, I want to get a work action in place.

[Glengoyne]

On the Dubb thing. I'm pretty much a noob, but asking for a scan seems reasonable, when the alternative is rolling over for the proverbial gallows.

On the logic that we gain nothing scanning him, if he is a wolf. I'm not so sure I buy in. It seems to me that we would get the fact that he was a wolf, not having to be distracted for a day debating who to vote for. That clarity of thought is worth something, and it provides another day to figure out the patterns that might tie other players to the wolf.

My,albeit inexperienced, take is that any successful scan is win win. You find a wolf or you clear someone.

[Danny]

On the Dubb thing. I'm pretty much a noob, but asking for a scan seems reasonable, when the alternative is rolling over for the proverbial gallows.

On the logic that we gain nothing scanning him, if he is a wolf. I'm not so sure I buy in. It seems to me that we would get the fact that he was a wolf, not having to be distracted for a day debating who to vote for. That clarity of thought is worth something, and it provides another day to figure out the patterns that might tie other players to the wolf.

My,albeit inexperienced, take is that any successful scan is win win. You find a wolf or you clear someone.

You and BK disagree with me, but I still say it's a better vanilla villager play to suggest someone else to be scanned and try and not get lynched the old fashioned way. I think pushing hard for a self scan is either a selfish play or one with an ulterior motive.

[Danny]

And I mean before the whole "scan me" thing. If I'm a villager, I'm not willing to just lie down and die as someone suggested and so I would want to be scanned. I know 100% that I'm good. If I die there's a 0% chance of finding a wolf. Anyone else? Maybe a wolf. So if I'm a villager, please scan me. I don't find anything improper about dubb wanting to be scanned.

That said, I'm hardly convinced of his innocence. That's why I'm hoping to be reminded what made people suspicious of him in the first place. It seems like Lathum/Danny started pushing him hard out of nowhere.

Dubb's voting from the day you duked looks really bad, plus I did not like his reaction to the scan thing.

[Barkeep49]

look at the votes from day 2, he was all over the place, that raised red flags for me.
Why ever move away from RendeR though if dubb is a wolf?

[Barkeep49]

Dubb's voting from the day you duked looks really bad, plus I did not like his reaction to the scan thing.
Ok playing this out, using the info from 1784:
when dubb votes for Render, that puts Render up 4-2 over Jackyl. Clearly a strike against him.
When dubb votes for me, the vote is actually closer, as it is now 4-3 Render over Jackal. Seems like a poor time to switch
An hour later (50 posts) dubb switches to Jackal and puts Jackal up 4-3.
Pass moves his vote from clap to Render tying it up 4-4.
Several votes later dubb moves back to Render. However, Jackal is still in the lead, 6-5. There are 8 minutes left before deadline at this point.
With 2 minutes left dubb switches to Schmidty.

With that series of votes I definitely get the suspicion of dubb.

[Chief Rum]

I like that thinking, BK, and I have had a bad vibe off of dubb myself.

Since I know you're good, though, your suspicion tells me a lot, too.

So I might change this if I read a little something further in, but for now, I think that's a good spot for my vote.

VOTE DUBB

[Danny]

I like that thinking, BK, and I have had a bad vibe off of dubb myself.

Since I know you're good, though, your suspicion tells me a lot, too.

So I might change this if I read a little something further in, but for now, I think that's a good spot for my vote.

VOTE DUBB

Easy there Chief, we need to lynch Jackal first.

[Danny]

Also, I know you tend to post the same way wolf or not, but that above post pings me back to when we were wolves together.

[Chief Rum]

Also, I know you tend to post the same way wolf or not, but that above post pings me back to when we were wolves together.

Seems like everything I am saying is pinging you as a wolf, Danny. Why don't you just vote me?

In any case, I am not a wolf. Your instincts in this case are wrong.

And I told you and everyone before--I don't think The Jackal is a wolf. So my vote's not going there.

[Danny]

Seems like everything I am saying is pinging you as a wolf, Danny. Why don't you just vote me?

In any case, I am not a wolf. Your instincts in this case are wrong.

And I told you and everyone before--I don't think The Jackal is a wolf. So my vote's not going there.

I guess you missed where TheNorm revealed as seer and scanned Jackal as bad. Assuming this isn't faked, I guess it makes me feel a little better about you :p

[Danny]

Seems like everything I am saying is pinging you as a wolf, Danny. Why don't you just vote me?


Because I'm not going to just vote of paranoia when there is more objective evidence available. Still won't stop me from posting about it though

[Chief Rum]

I guess you missed where TheNorm revealed as seer and scanned Jackal as bad. Assuming this isn't faked, I guess it makes me feel a little better about you :p

Wow, really?

Okay, how on Earth did I miss that? I'll admit I have had to cherry pick a bit because of a busy schedule, but usually with my skimming I do a good job of catching the big ones. Wow...

(feeling like a dumbass)

UNVOTE DUBB
VOTE THE JACKAL

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, I was going to do this because I think I've dropped enough hints already, and since it appears this camp is at a loss for us it's important that we thin the sympathizers out a little bit. *Puts on Encyclopedia Brown hat* :D

On night 1 I investigated Lathum purely on reputation--he's Labor.
For the next few nights I chose to investigate those that went on the mission because I thought it was an absolute certainty a sympathizer would go there. Poli turned up as labor on night two. I chose Jackal on night 3 and he is definitely working the other side.

...and EF, I've read over my description a bunch of times and I'm only a x1 without a gun.

Well, sonofab...

Way to go, TheNorm.

BTW, next time, could you separate the part about The Jackal? And use bolded terms, like "HE'S EVIL!!!" and stuff like that? M'kay thx. ;)

[EagleFan]

As of 1869:

Work:
Hunting - Danny (1534), Barkeep49 (1536), jeheinz72 (1593), ntndeacon (1599), The Jackal (1626), TheNorm (1651), EagleFan (1706), dubb93 (1724), PurdueBrad (1729), RendeR (1850) (10/10)
Patrol - Chief Rum x3 (1528), Lathum (1709),Glengoyne (1856) (5/10)
Mission - claphamsa (1588), DaddyTorgo (1608), Poli (1620) (3/?) - locked (1632)
Jail - USFLTecmo (1642)

Voting:
Jackal 13 - TheNorm (1545), Lathum (1708), EagleFan (1743), dubb93 (1745), Danny (1752), PurdueBrad (1758), DaddyTorgo (1795), Glengoyne (1817), Poli (1823), RendeR (1849), claphamsa (1850), Barkeep49 (1852), Chief Rum (1868)
TheNorm 1 - jeheinz72 (1682)


No vote: ntndeacon, The Jackal

[EagleFan]

Good game going on right now. Duck/Red Wings under 10 minutes left in double OT.

[Danny]

You'd think the wolves would have wanted to avoid the mission and instead do work today knowing that they could lock USFL up which stops us from completing our work anyway. Or since I don't remember was it pretty much decided by the group who would go on the mission?

[Chief Rum]

Good game going on right now. Duck/Red Wings under 10 minutes left in double OT.

So did you notice my posts were coming in intermission-timed intervals? ;)

[EagleFan]

So did you notice my posts were coming in intermission-timed intervals? ;)

3rd about to start, looks like no Chief for a few. :)

[Chief Rum]

3rd about to start, looks like no Chief for a few. :)

I'm back sooner than expected. :D

[TheNorm]

I'm sleepy...so where's this scan going tonight?

[Chief Rum]

I'm sleepy...so where's this scan going tonight?

I guess scan me or Dubb, to clear one of us (or nail one of us to the wall). Cut down the options for vote tomorrow, as it seems likely we're not getting the camp today.

[Danny]

I guess scan me or Dubb, to clear one of us (or nail one of us to the wall). Cut down the options for vote tomorrow, as it seems likely we're not getting the camp today.

This sounds good to me. I think DT and USFL are decent targets too if you want to go a different direction.

[Glengoyne]

You'd think the wolves would have wanted to avoid the mission and instead do work today knowing that they could lock USFL up which stops us from completing our work anyway. Or since I don't remember was it pretty much decided by the group who would go on the mission?

I don't think the mission volunteers mean anything this time around. Yesterday there were rewards associated with going on mission. It made for a pretty good bet that the wolves would have wanted at least ONE of them to go out. I don't think that argument holds true today.

[Danny]

I don't think the mission volunteers mean anything this time around. Yesterday there were rewards associated with going on mission. It made for a pretty good bet that the wolves would have wanted at least ONE of them to go out. I don't think that argument holds true today.

I meant it as the opposite, that because there were no rewards maybe the wolves would avoid the mission to not stand out.

[Glengoyne]

Thinking about the arrest mechanic a bit.

I was thinking that the wolves would be trying to push the mission/camp equation tight, so that an arrest would prevent conversion. Then it occurred to me that since the wolves all know our strengths, and multipliers they can easily just arrest a x3 person, and almost no margin of safety looks safe. So the wolves don't really need to push it tight to make the arrest work.


Given that, we need to closely manage our safety margin to prevent a surgical arrest.

[DaddyTorgo]

been out all day doing the walk for hunger. hooray for 20 mile walks.

anything i need to know as we move towards deadline? I voted for Jackal back on like Friday

[DaddyTorgo]

feel free to scan me - you'll see that i'm good

[RendeR]

feel free to scan me - you'll see that i'm good



What your hand tells you on an hourly basis has nothing to do with werewolf....

[Abe Sargent]

OK, I'm heading to my office to begin processing Day 4.

[Abe Sargent]

The day comes to an end here at Paint Creek. The sun winks its final goodbye through the treetops of the Appalachian hills. The miners are busy today and the work is hard. You’ve tried to set up some patrols to keep the miners safe as well as sent your men our hunting for game and food for the large camp.

However, the day’s task falls short:

Patrol just 5 man hours completed.

Hunting 10 needed and completed

You manage to bring back some game to feed the miners but you fail to set up defensive perimeters so the miners so not feel safe. Therefore, today is yet another failure.

After doing the tasks for the day, a large movement begins to Oust The Jackal. He barely resists, and within a moment, you have thrown him on a train bound for places unknown. You receive confirmation that he is a Sympathizer when you pick up the ledger that dropped out of his pocket, showing the days and amount he got paid by the company.

Night four has begun and ends at 1 am.

Tomorrow will be a long day. You have failed at converting camps three days in a row, but tomorrow is the beginning of a rally, you can feel it! You will also be voting to Oust tomorrow.

[Abe Sargent]

In early 1913, scab Phillip Cajano, 22, arrives in paint Creek and immediately joins the union. He is fired, beaten by three men including the operator of the coal mine, and tossed out of the company town. This is witnessed by others. No one was prosecuted.

[PurdueBrad]

Norm, nice job! Hopefully tomorrow's camp gives us much better results.

[Lathum]

Abe, what days and how much did Norm get paid?

[EagleFan]

Abe, what days and how much did Norm get paid?

Is there a reason that you are talking about Norm in the past tense?

[PurdueBrad]

Abe, what days and how much did Norm get paid?

Do you mean Jackal here?

[Abe Sargent]

Abe, what days and how much did Norm get paid?

It was just flavor, don;t read into my write ups, I don;t drop clues.

[Lathum]

I meant Jackal.

[Abe Sargent]

Processing shortly

[Abe Sargent]

Another night ends another dismal time. You sleep fitfully. You found another sympathizer, but more must still be out there.

The dawn brings new information, and new energy. The adjacent mines at Cabin Creek have joined the strike! The conflict is now heating up!

You decide to make a new stand in Cabin Creek and leave Paint Creek for now. Cabin Creek is where you will make the final stand of the conflict.

Due to its importance, you will be spending TWO days in Cabin Creek. Work done on Day Five is cumulative with Day Six. At the end of Day Six, all work must be complete. If it is, it counts as winning two camps. If not it counts as losing two, and on Day Seven, you will vote to Oust two players instead of one.

Cabin Creek Work:

Patrolling – 10
Food Distribution – 10
Gladhandling – 10
Oratory – 10

Good luck miners!

[Abe Sargent]

There is no mission today. There will be one tomorrow.

[Abe Sargent]

Another scab, George Lawson, and two confederates objected to the gun toting men who were guarding them, and tried to leave. George had two front teeth broken off by the butt of a Baldwin-Felts detective’s rifle in order to prevent them from leaving.

[dubb93]

Work Gladhandling

[Danny]

No kill again, just like last time they arrested someone. Like I thought, they can't make a kill when they arrest. I didn't want to say this in case I was wrong, but I have a good feeling Poli picked up on this as well and this could mean another two scans.

[Danny]

Work Food Distrubution

[EagleFan]

work food distribution

[Danny]

So, do we wait to vote until day 7 or we just vote over the next two days and can start now?

[Danny]

I do find it interesting also that USFL remains in jail. Maybe they're waiting for the seer to be gone before releasing him?

[Abe Sargent]

You do have a vote scheduled for today for failing to meet yesterday's tasks. I am talking about the failure to make Cabin Creek tomorrow, Day Six, will be two votes on Day Seven, just so everyone knows the stakes.

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, sorry, forgot it in my write up. USFLTecmo is released from jail. Yay. The warrant was false.

[EagleFan]

We should coordinate the specialties so that we can maximize how we use everyone. Most importantly so we can have a backup plan if anything strange like another arrest happens.

[Danny]

We should coordinate the specialties so that we can maximize how we use everyone. Most importantly so we can have a backup plan if anything strange like another arrest happens.

I think the wolves can only arrest every other day.

[EagleFan]

So, do we wait to vote until day 7 or we just vote over the next two days and can start now?

I think we oust tomorrow for today. If we lose the next two days combined then we oust two the next day.

[Danny]

Oh ok, so USFL was released and we are voting someone off.

I'm going to get things started

Vote NTNDeacon

I know Dubb is a top suspect, and this is the way NTN normally plays, but it could be a convenient way for a wolf to hide. This vote definitely is not stuck here, but will hopefully at least encourage some more participation on his part.

[EagleFan]

I think the wolves can only arrest every other day.

We should still make sure we get the most out of our workers. We can probably finish off food distribution and gladhandling today and try to get as much as possible on the other tasks.

[Danny]

We should still make sure we get the most out of our workers. We can probably finish off food distribution and gladhandling today and try to get as much as possible on the other tasks.

Definitely. I already voted, but the other player who I think should garner some votes is USFL, he has been awfully quiet too.

[EagleFan]

I am going to put in a place holder vote for now to see how the conversation goes.

Also, remember that we are assuming the "wolves" can't do something during the night because they arrested USFL. We don't know for certain if there was a bribe, or maybe even a block.

Hopefully we got another good scan from Norm.

For bribe suspects I would have to say that Lathum and myself are probably tops on the list. Lathum could also be the cunning for all we know (just a word of caution). Not saying that I suspect him for any reason at all, just that a good scan doesn't mean 100% clear until we eliminate the cunning. Even after that there is the chance of a bribe but we would then know that the person cleared by a scan was at least good up until that point to have a base line to judge their actions from.

[Poli]

No kill again, just like last time they arrested someone. Like I thought, they can't make a kill when they arrest. I didn't want to say this in case I was wrong, but I have a good feeling Poli picked up on this as well and this could mean another two scans.
I picked up what just about everyone was putting down. ;)

[Poli]

I can't vote for ntn. I just don't buy that the demon deacon is our potential last bad guy.

[EagleFan]

lol, started that last post wanting to vote and then side tracked myself.


vote PurdueBrad

I am still not sold on his flop from mission to camp on day two. Since we found one sympathiser was on the mission that day this would fit nicely into the theory that the sympathisers did not want to have two on the mission once they decided on arresting me.

[Danny]

I am going to put in a place holder vote for now to see how the conversation goes.

Also, remember that we are assuming the "wolves" can't do something during the night because they arrested USFL. We don't know for certain if there was a bribe, or maybe even a block.

Hopefully we got another good scan from Norm.

For bribe suspects I would have to say that Lathum and myself are probably tops on the list. Lathum could also be the cunning for all we know (just a word of caution). Not saying that I suspect him for any reason at all, just that a good scan doesn't mean 100% clear until we eliminate the cunning. Even after that there is the chance of a bribe but we would then know that the person cleared by a scan was at least good up until that point to have a base line to judge their actions from.

I think the first arrest was too early for a bribe and there was also no night kill which is why I didn't suspect one tonight either. I definitely don't think the wolves have already bribed two players which would have to be the case if the wolves were able to kill on a night they arrested.

[Poli]

We now know for certain that is wasn't a block.

[Danny]

I can't vote for ntn. I just don't buy that the demon deacon is our potential last bad guy.

We've only found two, I would think we would have more than 3. He isn't at the top of my lists of suspects, but a player should not be able to get through a week of play with only 10 posts.

[Poli]

That it...not is.

[Poli]

We've only found two, I would think we would have more than 3. He isn't at the top of my lists of suspects, but a player should not be able to get through a week of play with only 10 posts.
Understood, but ntn has done that for both the "north and the south" in the past.

[EagleFan]

I think the first arrest was too early for a bribe and there was also no night kill which is why I didn't suspect one tonight either. I definitely don't think the wolves have already bribed two players which would have to be the case if the wolves were able to kill on a night they arrested.

Why would that be too early for a bribe? With an unknown number of conversions possible by bribes that would tell me that the wolves started with a small number. I would think that they would want to increase their numbers as early as possible.

Not saying there was a bribe, just that I don't think we can immediately discard that possibility.

I actually find it a little odd that you seem very quick to discard that theory. That plus your "I voted for Jackal early so therefore I must be clean" theory is making me wonder. I saw you use this type of play as the "Puppet Master" of the wolves.

[EagleFan]

We now know for certain that is wasn't a block.

Rats, was hoping there was and that you were wearing better glasses this time. :)

[EagleFan]

Time to get some sleep before I doze off holding the laptop.

[Danny]

Why would that be too early for a bribe? With an unknown number of conversions possible by bribes that would tell me that the wolves started with a small number. I would think that they would want to increase their numbers as early as possible.

Not saying there was a bribe, just that I don't think we can immediately discard that possibility.

I actually find it a little odd that you seem very quick to discard that theory. That plus your "I voted for Jackal early so therefore I must be clean" theory is making me wonder. I saw you use this type of play as the "Puppet Master" of the wolves.

lol, I wish I was a worse wolf now :)

Regarding the bribes, we have no actual information to work with, but I am using logic to determine how I think Abe would lay things out. I'll explain my thinking here.

Night 2 and 4 there were arrests. Night 2 and 4 there were no kills and no blocks.

This means that either both nights there was no kill because of the arrest or both nights there was a bribe.

Because we all have different bribe amounts, my thinking is that the wolves accumulate money for bribing each day. This way, they have the choice to play it conservatively by building up money to make a bribe resist unlikely or go for multiple bribes with the risk of being caught. If it works any other way, I don't really see how there is any downside for the wolves and that would unbalance things.

I don't see the wolves making a play to bribe day two with a small amount of money. I also see no way the wolves had enough money to bribe and feel comfortable bribing two people in four days.

[Danny]

Oh and it's certainly possible I am wrong, but at this point in the game, I don't think we should play using unlikely logic. As things develop, we can certainly rethink things.

[Chief Rum]

Putting in for Patrolling, as usual:

VOTE PATROLLING

Between USFL and I, we can get 6 of the 10 needed for Patrolling.

Interested in hearing TheNorm's scan results.

[Danny]

After going into what I thought the arrests meant regarding night kills I remembered something Abe said earlier. He said people arrested may not come back from the game. And when a player came back, he said the warrant did not stick. Knowing Abe's pension for dice rolling, I actually think it's quite likely when the wolves arrest someone a dice is rolled to decide whether their warrant sticks or not. If it does, that player is out of the game. The arrest also takes the place of a night kill as I surmised earlier. For that matter, it looks like it may be possible the wolves can only switch off night killing and arresting every other day.

I think the arrest of EF and the following attempted night kill on him follows this logic where the wolves clearly wanted him out of the game.

Again, this would be wrong, but this makes me feel a lot better about USFL. I also want to look at who the wolves could have arrested and didn't among the x3 workers. I think this could tell us a lot as the arrest could be similar to picking a night kill.

[Danny]

Again, this could be wrong, but this makes me feel a lot better about USFL. I also want to look at who the wolves could have arrested and didn't among the x3 workers. I think this could tell us a lot as the arrest could be similar to picking a night kill.

Fixed

[Danny]

Taken from #1749 by EF

Some interesting thins to note. There were not enough work points even with USFL's arrest. THis tells me the wolves may not have had a choice and must alternate between night kill and arrest. Also to note, the other x3 player involved was Chief Rum.

Work:
Hunting - Danny (1534), Barkeep49 (1536), jeheinz72 (1593), ntndeacon (1599), The Jackal (1626), TheNorm (1651), EagleFan (1706), dubb93 (1724), PurdueBrad (1729) (9/10)
Patrol - Chief Rum x3 (1528), Lathum (1709) (4/10)
Mission - claphamsa (1588), DaddyTorgo (1608), Poli (1620) (3/?) - locked (1632)
Jail - USFLTecmo (1642)

No work orders: Glengoyne, RendeR

[Danny]

Day two, the other arrest.

patrol - CR (x3), USFL (x3) (6/6)
food distribution - Lathum (x3), BK, PB, heinz, dubb, Autumn, TheNorm, Danny (x3), Pass (13/15)
organization - clap, ntn (x3), Schmidty (3), DT (8/8)

Lathum, Danny, USFL, Chief Rum, NTN, Schmidty are all x3 from here. The wolves passed them all up for a chance at EF. Since then, Lathum has been cleared (pending Cunning), I know I am good and USFL was arrested later. I can easily see why the wolves would go for EF or CR over Schmidty and NTN. What sticks out to me is that the wolves have had two opportunities to arrest chief rum at x3 and have not done so.

[Danny]

BTW, I know most of the premises I am working from are not known facts, but I think the logic is strong and holds very well to all actions we have seen thus far.

[Danny]

Pending the scan result, I may be swinging my vote to CR.

[Danny]

Unvote NTN
Vote Chief Rum

Will consider changing this (especially depending on scan result), but wanted this vote here since I'll likely be sleeping in.

[Chief Rum]

Unvote NTN
Vote Chief Rum

Will consider changing this (especially depending on scan result), but wanted this vote here since I'll likely be sleeping in.

Danny, you have been knocking on this door all game now, but you're wrong. If you lynch me, I will come up a relatively useless villager, and you will have wasted another day.

[Danny]

Danny, you have been knocking on this door all game now, but you're wrong. If you lynch me, I will come up a relatively useless villager, and you will have wasted another day.

This vote is not set in stone and I personally am hoping you were scanned, so we'll see. I would like to hear your thoughts about the logic I laid out regarding arrests and all that. It certainly made perfect since in my mind, but I want to hear if others minds follow along with that logic.

Oh, and I've only been knocking on that door after someone at Jackal's house answered his door ;)

[Chief Rum]

Your logic there is better than nothing, I suppose, but I think it makes too many assumptions. I, of course, have the advantage of knowing it's leading you to the wrong conclusion. I hope I am scanned, too.

As it is, I don't think the wolves are much worried about me. It's obvious that my schedule has impacted my availability in the game (witness the Jackal thing I missed), and they already know who the BG, Duke and Seer are.

[Danny]

And even if the logic is true that doesn't make you a wolf for certain as they may be other reasons they picked USFL over you.

[PurdueBrad]

Easy call,

work on oratory

[claphamsa]

work gladhandling

[PurdueBrad]

Our two weakest spots, amount of labor-wise, are oratory and patrolling so we'll need to make sure we have extra coverage on each of those. Those would seem to be the most vulnerable targets for the wolves to hit and, if this camp represents what I think it does, these are key places to cover up.

[Barkeep49]

Abe, will we get a status report on our work done at the end of today?

[Barkeep49]

While I was initally skeptical, I think the vote analysis against dubb looks solid.

Vote dubb

[Barkeep49]

Danny: I'm not a big fan of the way you're pushing what the wolves can or can't do. With bribery being such an obvious point in the game, I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions.

[Danny]

Danny: I'm not a big fan of the way you're pushing what the wolves can or can't do. With bribery being such an obvious point in the game, I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions.

That's true. I do admit I was feeling adventurous with the theories I laid out.

[Abe Sargent]

Abe, will we get a status report on our work done at the end of today?

Yes

[DaddyTorgo]

WORK ON ORATORY

[TheNorm]

Fellas, Chief Rum was my scan last night and he's labor (Wings and Ducks working together, who'd have thunk it? ;) ).

Sorry I couldn't catch a baddie this time.

Let me know where my work is needed for today.

[Danny]

Unvote Chief Rum

[PurdueBrad]

Know that CR is good, I'll

vote dubb

[PurdueBrad]

Know=Now

Sorry, trying to type this as I walk down a hallway.

[Poli]

GO PATROLLING

I'm going to hold off on my vote for now.

[jeheinz72]

Work Gladhanding

[jeheinz72]

Oh, and good job Norm. Sorry I was long gone before seeing your reveal. Having seen it now, well, that makes some sense as to why you voted so quickly. :)

[TheNorm]

Also forgot to mention that I'm going to be apartment hunting for the better part of today but will be back in time to put my work in.

...and jeheinz, any particular reason you kept your vote on me for yesterday?

[jeheinz72]

Can someone recap the dubb argument for me?

I saw some posts about haphazard voting the day before or something. Just to play devil's advocate, he did the same thing in Sparta in Pass's game and was a villager.

[jeheinz72]

Also forgot to mention that I'm going to be apartment hunting for the better part of today but will be back in time to put my work in.

...and jeheinz, any particular reason you kept your vote on me for yesterday?

I don't come online on the weekends. So right now is the first time I've caught up since I placed that vote.

My bad!

[TheNorm]

Oh, and good job Norm. Sorry I was long gone before seeing your reveal. Having seen it now, well, that makes some sense as to why you voted so quickly. :)

Thanks--that answers the question I just posted. :)

[USFLTecmo]

Good luck with the apartment searching, Norm.

Work on Patrolling

[Chief Rum]

Fellas, Chief Rum was my scan last night and he's labor (Wings and Ducks working together, who'd have thunk it? ;) ).

Sorry I couldn't catch a baddie this time.

Let me know where my work is needed for today.

Well, would have liked to have caught a baddie, but I'll take being cleared. Thanks!

[PurdueBrad]

Since EF has voted for me again, I would gladly volunteer to be the next scan (and yeah, I'm offering this despite the conversation yesterday that some feel that it makes you look like a wolf).

I would like the same kind of security that CR now enjoys (jealous!).

In addition, while I think we still have something like 10 uncleared players, I would like to propose that we consider doing some rescans at some point due to the bribery aspect as well.

[jeheinz72]

I'm not cleared and I'm going to ask that I'm not scanned. *rolleyes*

[Abe Sargent]

There are numerous stories of scabs and miners who did flee. James Kane, a 19 year of old cook forced to mine, walked 23 miles along the Kanawha River to Charleston and hopped a train to New York. More and more stories began to accumulate. Beatings. False arrests. Intimidation. All of this began to pile up and pile up.

[Barkeep49]

Can someone recap the dubb argument for me?

I saw some posts about haphazard voting the day before or something. Just to play devil's advocate, he did the same thing in Sparta in Pass's game and was a villager.
Dubb's voting from Day 3 suggests that he could hvae been trying to save Jackal.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm not cleared and I'm going to ask that I'm not scanned. *rolleyes*

Hehe, smart ass!

[RendeR]

WORK PATROLLING

We should be able to finish patrolling and almost finish at least one more task today and then pile everyone on the others tomorrow. depending on how many specialists we have left it might be tight though.

Who are the major vote targets today? I may not be around at deadline, not sure yet though.

I'll get a vote in before I dissapear entirely though.

[PurdueBrad]

The conflict is now heating up!

You decide to make a new stand in Cabin Creek and leave Paint Creek for now. ]b]Cabin Creek is where you will make the final stand of the conflict.[/b]

Due to its importance, you will be spending TWO days in Cabin Creek.


Okay, I dropped the hint earlier but I'll ask it openly. Is this the end-game event that Abe discussed possibly being triggered? If so, I'm wondering if we triggered it or the wolves did.

If this is the endgame scenario, is there any value in a no-lynch here on the chance that we lynch a villager and lose their work? I mean, if we keep a wolf around they would have to fake their work (I would assume) BUT at least we would force them to do that as Abe mentioned there would a work detail at the end of this. And if they don't fake, we can take advantage of their work. I'm normally opposed to no lynches but we also don't normally rely on the wolves or mis-voted villagers for their labor.

[PurdueBrad]

There is also a game ending event, which, if it is triggered, will decide the game right there and then.

This is what I'm talking about, if you don't know.

[claphamsa]

This is what I'm talking about, if you don't know.
i would think that Abe would let us know....

[EagleFan]

As of 1967:

Patrolling: Chief Rum (1926), Poli (1951), USFLTecomo (1958), RendeR (1965) (4/10)
Food Distribution: Danny (1900), EagleFan x3 (1901) (4/10)
Gladhandling: dubb93 (1898), claphamsa (1939), jeheinz72 (1952) (3/10)
Oratory: PurdueBrad (1938), DaddyTorgo (1946) (2/10)


PurdueBrad 1 - EagleFan (1915)
dubb93 2 - Barkeep (1942), PurdueBrad (1949)

no work order: Lathum, ntndeacon, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Barkeep49

no vote: Poli, Lathum, dubb93, claphamsa, ntndeacon, USFLTecmo, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, jeheinz72, Danny

[EagleFan]

I only added my multiplier. Trying to do this between tasks at work so if those involved could add the multipliers in that would be a great help and would be greatly appreciated.

[EagleFan]

For the record, I don't think we should aim for completing a task today if we have multiple multiplers on that task. Why waste the potential x3's tomorrow?

If we keep it so that our x3's are still worth something tomorrow (as many as possible) that cuts down the affect that just one of them being killed off would have.

[jeheinz72]

If we keep it so that our x3's are still worth something tomorrow (as many as possible) that cuts down the affect that just one of them being killed off would have.

I don't know if that's smart. Since we don't know who they'll kill, we're better off just making sure things get done. For instance, on gladhanding; clap, myself and dubb are all +3s.

We should all work today and if that means only one of us has to tomorrow, then great. But I think some strange plan where we don't all work today is setting ourselves up for another mistake (or another nicely executed wolf move)

[EagleFan]

As of 1967:

Patrolling: Chief Rum (1926), Poli (1951), USFLTecomo (1958), RendeR (1965) (4/10)
Food Distribution: Danny (1900), EagleFan x3 (1901) (4/10)
Gladhandling: dubb93 x3 (1898), claphamsa (1939), jeheinz72 x3 (1952) (7/10)
Oratory: PurdueBrad x3 (1938), DaddyTorgo (1946) (4/10)


PurdueBrad 1 - EagleFan (1915)
dubb93 2 - Barkeep (1942), PurdueBrad (1949)

no work order: Lathum, ntndeacon, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Barkeep49

no vote: Poli, Lathum, dubb93, claphamsa, ntndeacon, USFLTecmo, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, jeheinz72, Danny

[EagleFan]

I don't know if that's smart. Since we don't know who they'll kill, we're better off just making sure things get done. For instance, on gladhanding; clap, myself and dubb are all +3s.

We should all work today and if that means only one of us has to tomorrow, then great. But I think some strange plan where we don't all work today is setting ourselves up for another mistake (or another nicely executed wolf move)

Not saying that our x3's shouldn't work in their area of specialty just that the others should be placeed strategically so that as many x3's as possible are still valid tomorrow.

Example: If we have 2 x3's in a task we shouldn't fill in 4 with no multiplier to fill up that task today when they could be used more wisely in another area.

[EagleFan]

Updating the list as I find the multipliers.

[jeheinz72]

914 EF Votes PB (1-0)
986 Pass votes Poli
989 Pass unvotes Poli
991 Pass votes Poli (1-1)
998 Poli votes Pass (1-1-1)
1063 Heinze votes Autumn (1-1-1-1)
1116 Clap votes Pass (2-1-1-1)
1134 Lathum votes Render (2-1-1-1-1)
1149 Poli unvotes pass (1-1-1-1-1)
1154 Pass unvotes Poli (1-1-1-1)
1154 Pass votes Clap (1-1-1-1-1)
1166 Danny votes Jackal (1-1-1-1-1-1)
1190 Autumn votes Render (2-1-1-1-1-1)
1202 Poli votes the Jackal (2-2-1-1-1-1)
1205 The Jackal votes Render (3-2-1-1-1-1)
1209 Dubb votes Render (4-2-1-1-1-1
1216 Heinze unvotes Autumn (4-2-1-1-1)
1216 Heinze votes Jackal (4-3-1-1-1)
1250 Dubb unvotes render (3-3-1-1-1)
1250 Dubb votes BK (3-3-1-1-1-1)
1255 CR votes Autumn (3-3-1x5)
1300 Dubb unvotes BK (3-3-1x4)
1304 Dubb votes Jackal (4-3-1x4)
1312 BK votes Jackal (5-3-1x4)
1331 Pass unvotes Clap (5-3-1-1-1)
1331 Pass votes Render (5-4-1-1-1)
1334 PB votes Jackal (6-4-1-1-1)
1340 EF unvotes PB (6-4-1-1)
1340 EF votes Jackal (7-4-1-1)
1341 Dubb unvotes JAckal (6-4-1-1)
1341 Dubb votes Render (6-5-1-1)
1354 Render votes Jackal (7-5-1-1)
1358 USFL votes Schmidty (7-5-1-1-1)
1361 Dubb unvotes render (7-4-1-1-1)
1361 Dubb votes Schmidty (7-4-1x4)
1370 TheNorm votes no lynch
1372 The Jackal unvotes Render (7-3-1x4)
1372 The Jackal votes Schmidty (7-4-2-1-1-1)
1372- EF unvotes Jackal (6-4-2-1-1-1)
1372- EF votes PB (6-4-2-1x4)
1377 The Jackal unvotes Schmidty
1377 The JAckal votes Render 6-5-2-1x4)



Adding running vote counts

[jeheinz72]

Not saying that our x3's shouldn't work in their area of specialty just that the others should be placeed strategically so that as many x3's as possible are still valid tomorrow.

Example: If we have 2 x3's in a task we shouldn't fill in 4 with no multiplier to fill up that task today when they could be used more wisely in another area.

Yes. Really the best tact is that if you're a x3 in one of the four areas, work there. If you're not, fill in wisely.

EF - Clap is a x3 gladhander as well

[EagleFan]

As of 1975:

Patrolling: Chief Rum (1926), Poli (1951), USFLTecomo (1958), RendeR (1965) (4/10)
Food Distribution: Danny (1900), EagleFan x3 (1901) (4/10)
Gladhandling: dubb93 x3 (1898), claphamsa x3 (1939), jeheinz72 x3 (1952) (9/10)
Oratory: PurdueBrad x3 (1938), DaddyTorgo (1946) (4/10)


PurdueBrad 1 - EagleFan (1915)
dubb93 2 - Barkeep (1942), PurdueBrad (1949)

no work order: Lathum, ntndeacon, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Barkeep49

no vote: Poli, Lathum, dubb93, claphamsa, ntndeacon, USFLTecmo, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, jeheinz72, Danny

[EagleFan]

As of 1975:

Patrolling: Chief Rum x3 (1926), Poli (1951), USFLTecomo X3 (1958), RendeR (1965) (8/10)
Food Distribution: Danny x3 (1900), EagleFan x3 (1901) (6/10)
Gladhandling: dubb93 x3 (1898), claphamsa x3 (1939), jeheinz72 x3 (1952) (9/10)
Oratory: PurdueBrad x3 (1938), DaddyTorgo (1946) (4/10)


PurdueBrad 1 - EagleFan (1915)
dubb93 2 - Barkeep (1942), PurdueBrad (1949)

no work order: Lathum, ntndeacon, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Barkeep49

no vote: Poli, Lathum, dubb93, claphamsa, ntndeacon, USFLTecmo, TheNorm, Glengoyne, Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, jeheinz72, Danny

[jeheinz72]

Looking at that vote run down a couple things strike me.

A) Dubb was all over the place, yes. Not a huge fan of how he played the day if he's a villager. But with all 3 of them on RendeR and the count at 7-5 with a good amount of voters left, was his switch-off to Schmidty a sign that the wolves gave up on saving Jackal, or a sign that he just didn't know.

B) I'm not a fan of EF's late vote switch. Granted he didn't switch it to RendeR, but he put it back within striking distance

C) Certainly not a fan of any of the people who made themselves meaningless.

[EagleFan]

Let me know who I missed with the multipliers, or if I am incorrect about a multiplier. This is looking too easy at the moment. There must be a catch somewhere.

[jeheinz72]

CoT:
Poli
Barkeep
TheNorm
EagleFan

Outer Ring (a possible cunning is all the keeps him fro a lock at the moment):
Lathum

Good feel about:
Glengoyne/Schmidty
Danny
RendeR

Sympathiser
The Jackal

4. dubb - a lot of suspicion around him at the moment
5. claphamsa - no good read at the moment
6. ntndeacon - is he playing? ;)
7. USFLTecmo - wolf plan to arrest their own?
11. Chief Rum - haven't seen his usual lay it all on the line posts that I've seen from him when he is a villager
12. DaddyTorgo - seems to be doing a lot of following, have seen that as a wolf
14. PurdueBrad - still suspicious of the switch from the mission day 2, especially now with TheNorm being good and Jackal being bad (didn't Jackal go on the mission that day? It would make sense that they did not want multiple wolves on the mission when they decided to arrest me)
20. jeheinz - I always think he is a wolf, need to look at a little more as Ihave no read at the moment.

EF, are you actually in *the* CoT, or is this just you putting yourself in there since you're the one posting it?

[jeheinz72]

Let me know who I missed with the multipliers, or if I am incorrect about a multiplier. This is looking too easy at the moment. There must be a catch somewhere.

I'm almost certain DT is a x3 on oratory, but you might want to wait for him to confirm that.

[jeheinz72]

Also EF, what's with the incessant PB voting? Is this just a perpetuating inside joke or do you continue to think he's a wolf here?

[EagleFan]

Looking at that vote run down a couple things strike me.

A) Dubb was all over the place, yes. Not a huge fan of how he played the day if he's a villager. But with all 3 of them on RendeR and the count at 7-5 with a good amount of voters left, was his switch-off to Schmidty a sign that the wolves gave up on saving Jackal, or a sign that he just didn't know.

B) I'm not a fan of EF's late vote switch. Granted he didn't switch it to RendeR, but he put it back within striking distance

C) Certainly not a fan of any of the people who made themselves meaningless.

I had no read on the leaders at that point. I would be highly suspicious of that too if I were you. I am cleared though, if that means anything at this point.

[jeheinz72]

I ask because PB put a pretty balls vote on Jackal here:

1334 PB votes Jackal (6-4-1-1-1)
1340 EF unvotes PB (6-4-1-1)
1340 EF votes Jackal (7-4-1-1)

Then you followed him.

[jeheinz72]

I had no read on the leaders at that point. I would be highly suspicious of that too if I were you. I am cleared though, if that means anything at this point.

Did Norm scan you?

No offense meant, I missed a lot of the HOW people got into the CoT in trying to catch up.

[Glengoyne]

My specialty isn't up for today, organization. So I'm one point of labor.

It looks too early to determine where that will get placed.


This should be pretty much a slam dunk...unless our losses have eaten up too many of our x3 players in a given area. My thoughts....We figure out our maximum output, identify our weak points(where we've taken losses), and shore up those weaknesses. We can be counting on any x3 folks to be around tomorrow.

With 3 x3 folks in gladhanding, we'll get nine today. I think anyone else's one point in labor would be better spent elsewhere. Because there is no way that all three of them will be gone tomorrow.

So in short we shore up the weaknesses, and spread the rest evenly.

for now, although I'll be in later.

work PATROL
vote Dubb

[EagleFan]

EF, are you actually in *the* CoT, or is this just you putting yourself in there since you're the one posting it?

Poli blocked an attack on me. I think that should pretty much put me there unless I have pissed off the sympathisers enough that they were going after one of their own that night.

[jeheinz72]

Poli blocked an attack on me. I think that should pretty much put me there unless I have pissed off the sympathisers enough that they were going after one of their own that night.

Gotcha. Yeah, that's solid enough...for now. :D

[EagleFan]

I ask because PB put a pretty balls vote on Jackal here:

1334 PB votes Jackal (6-4-1-1-1)
1340 EF unvotes PB (6-4-1-1)
1340 EF votes Jackal (7-4-1-1)

Then you followed him.

I have been suspicious of him since the flop he did on day two. I may be wrong but it's at least something to go on at the moment.

[EagleFan]

the PB vote day one has become a bit of a joke but I actually had no plan on voting him this game but that day two flop just eats at me. Especially with Jackal staying on the mission it seems like a sympathiser trying to get out of the line of fire so there wouldn't be two of their own standing out for going on the mission instead of the camp.

[jeheinz72]

I have been suspicious of him since the flop he did on day two. I may be wrong but it's at least something to go on at the moment.

Do you think your cause for suspicion trumps the fact that he made a balls vote on Jackal?

I ask because I really don't think it's in our best interests to railroad dubb today. Which isn't to say I won't vote for him, but I've seen him act bananas as a villager before so I"m hesitant to now agree with the thinking that since he's acting bananas he must be a wolf.

So I want to make sure we've vetted the other candidates before we see a bunch of pop-in-and-run votes on dubb.

Unless he's pulling some sort of long con on me...:D

[EagleFan]

Stepping out for a bit.

[jeheinz72]

the PB vote day one has become a bit of a joke but I actually had no plan on voting him this game but that day two flop just eats at me. Especially with Jackal staying on the mission it seems like a sympathiser trying to get out of the line of fire so there wouldn't be two of their own standing out for going on the mission instead of the camp.

But wasn't he basically asked/forced to get off the mission and do his work?

[Glengoyne]

Ah just read and saw that patrol wasn't exactly a weakness. so I'll change to oratory.

unwork PATROL
work ORATORY

[EagleFan]

Do you think your cause for suspicion trumps the fact that he made a balls vote on Jackal?

I ask because I really don't think it's in our best interests to railroad dubb today. Which isn't to say I won't vote for him, but I've seen him act bananas as a villager before so I"m hesitant to now agree with the thinking that since he's acting bananas he must be a wolf.

So I want to make sure we've vetted the other candidates before we see a bunch of pop-in-and-run votes on dubb.

Unless he's pulling some sort of long con on me...:D

One last post before stepping out to address this. I am not sold 100 percent on the PB vote as of yet and want to actually look a little more closely at his play and voting history. I did notice that he followed Pass where the work load was concerned, if that means anything. I really don't want to see a runaway on dubb as we learn nothing at that point.

[jeheinz72]

Gotcha. I shall wait for PB and a few others I have in mind to come on.

[PurdueBrad]

Heinz, EF, I'm around some for the next few minutes.

[PurdueBrad]

But wasn't he basically asked/forced to get off the mission and do his work?

Heinz, this is true to a degree. I felt very strongly that getting the items would be valuable but Autumn and some others asked/forced me to move. And then later had me move another time.