WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387)

[britrock88]

Why do you guys capitalize the D and M in today and tomorrow, by the way?

It distinguishes real-life days from WW Days. (Saturday-Monday is 3 days and 1 Day.)

[Raven]

I feel like I'm spinning wheels on D1 again. I originally voted Jackal because he seemed to be posting simply to pad his post count, so I was comfortable leaving my vote on him. Now that he's contributing, I'm not as comfortable leaving it there, so will likely be moving it, but not sure where.

[Autumn]

I want to see a vote count before I vote, but have caught up again. I'm enjoying the Duke/Hunter angle, and gives us something interesting to stratergize about day one. The fact that a Hunter can safely take out a Duke the day after he/she dukes, and vice-versa, should be a good balance to those abilities getting used. There's a very high chance you will die by using your ability, if not immediately then the next day, so you'd have to have a pretty strong read to do so. It would be more powerful for us to reserve our abilities as long as we can in the game, so that we can overpower the wolves toward the end.

I haven't seen any mention of the PM ability yet, but that will certainly prove crucial at some point. Please remember that if you use it, perhaps to get yourself out of a lynch, you are certainly feeding the wolves that info, as well as your faction, so think it through carefully.

[Autumn]

dola

I was thinking the PM went out to the whole faction, so I slightly revise what I said upon rereading. There is a chance you'll be giving into to the wolves, I should say.

[Shoveler]

dola

I was thinking the PM went out to the whole faction, so I slightly revise what I said upon rereading. There is a chance you'll be giving into to the wolves, I should say.

And there is good possibility that one if not two of the wolves have the duke pm ability. So they could be using the ability to manipulate as well.

[Autumn]

Chief Rum, are there rules against revealing or hinting at your identity in the content of your PM?

[Chief Rum]

Vote Tally (as of Post #256)

timmae (3)-- EagleFan (82), Vaimes (85), The Jackal (237)
Shoveler (2)-- MartinD (83), britrock83 (113)
The Jackal (2)-- Raven (106), timmae (154)
Vaimes (2)-- Shoveler (95), Zinto (163)
Zinto (1)-- Narcizo (108)
Grover (1)-- fontisian (210)
fontisian (3)-- MrBug708 (178), cheekimonk (190), Grover (202)
cheekimonk (1)-- JAG (197)


Yet To Vote: Autumn

[Autumn]

Chief, if The Blank attempts to shoot someone will that fact be advertised in thread and will it cancel other shot attempts?

[The Jackal]

I didn't realize timmae already had two votes on him, but I'm cool with seeing where this goes.

[The Jackal]

Chief, if The Blank attempts to shoot someone will that fact be advertised in thread and will it cancel other shot attempts?

Good question

[Chief Rum]

I guess it's a red letter day then. I haven't voted seriously to this point anyway, mostly wanting to get some discussion going and ask questions of those I have. I'm a little weirded out by people following my votes though.

Unvote

For further notice, please anyone who wishes to just UNVOTE and not UNVOTE and VOTE in the same post, please include the player you're unvoting. I almost missed this from unvote from JAG because a simple bolded Unvote doesn't particularly stand out.

[MrBug708]

I have to Procter the state testing today so I'm limited. Can't even have cell phone on me until break

[The Jackal]

I feel like that came out of nowhere a game or two ago, the unvoting with no name next to it

[Autumn]

I know where I would vote among current votegetters if need be, but I don't have a strong suspicion there. So with plenty of time I'd rather go with someone I have a bad read on, just gut based on posts.

<b>vote cheekimonk</b>

[Shoveler]

OOG: Just a heads up that I have offsite meetings from 8am until 4pm CST tomorrow (Tuesday).

Does this mean he wont be checking in through lynch time?

[Autumn]

I feel like that came out of nowhere a game or two ago, the unvoting with no name next to it

Things are different, friend, than in the old days. Come on over and have a lemonade.

[Chief Rum]

Chief Rum, are there rules against revealing or hinting at your identity in the content of your PM?

I am presuming you're talking about the one PM everyone has the ability to send in the game?

You can put anything in that message. You can tell that person the Ducks will win the Stanley Cup this year if you like.

Just remember, everyone, these PMs go to me alone. And then I send it someone else (unknown to you, the sender).

[Grover]

unvote fontisian
vote MartinD

We've heard very little from him so far, I'd like to hear more..

[Chief Rum]

Chief, if The Blank attempts to shoot someone will that fact be advertised in thread and will it cancel other shot attempts?

There will likely be a theatrical scene where the Blank will fail miserably, yes.

And, also yes, the Blank firing will eliminate all other possible Hunter shots for that day.

[EagleFan]

I am puzzled but have a couple theories but want to see what plays out with tonight's vote before confusing myself further. I doubt that I will be around for the vote so I hope that we hit on a wolf.

I probably should have not jumped in this game when I saw it was an afternoon deadline so I apologize for my lack of involvement so far. At least tonight there will be more posts that I can sort through, and votes to analyze.


Some thoughts that I don't mind tipping my hand on:

Agree that it really doesn't help to reveal the duke/hunter roles at the moment. Maybe there will come a time in the game when it will but I am not seeing it at this point.

Want to find out more about the font declaration on Vaimes.

Not seeing what pinged anyone on cheek but I haven't read everything yet. What I saw looked more like a confused villager (I know because I have been) and nothing wolfish. Though I admit to not looking his way on day one this game after last game.

font was getting called out about voting but now Autumn seems to be delaying as well. Has he been called out?


There are a couple other observations but they aren't strong enough yet and I want to see if they make more sense after the vote (and more posts by those involved hopefully).

[Autumn]

Also to consider are the Duke and Hunter roles, some of which could be in the hands of wolves. A wolf or cultist who can find out the faction of players, for instance, could be a big benefit to the wolves, as could the other roles. Just something to keep in the back of our mind.

[Raven]

There will likely be a theatrical scene where the Blank will fail miserably, yes.

And, also yes, the Blank firing will eliminate all other possible Hunter shots for that day.


--insert image of Elmer Fudd--

[britrock88]

Does this mean he wont be checking in through lynch time?

That appears to be correct. I'd cut against heading Timmae's way for a lynch simply for this reason. Let's pick up the thought tomorrow, by all means (I don't have a strong read either way), but we wouldn't get anything out of him today, from the looks of it.

[Narcizo]

Forgot about the PM thingy. I can't really see any way how that can be helpful to the village but who knows. Seems more useful in terms of hunters and dukes.

[Chief Rum]

For further notice, please anyone who wishes to just UNVOTE and not UNVOTE and VOTE in the same post, please include the player you're unvoting. I almost missed this from unvote from JAG because a simple bolded Unvote doesn't particularly stand out.

Just to be certain this is clear, I am only asking for this if all you do voting wise in a post is UNVOTE.

You can still follow the BGG format if you UNVOTE and VOTE in the same post. I haven't had any issues missing those.

[The Jackal]

Thanks for re-posting timmae's availability.

unvote timmae

[The Jackal]

Things are different, friend, than in the old days. Come on over and have a lemonade.

Mm, refreshing. :cool:

[Autumn]

Forgot about the PM thingy. I can't really see any way how that can be helpful to the village but who knows. Seems more useful in terms of hunters and dukes.

I can think of a way or two but nothing is certain, they could all be sabotaged by wolves.

[Autumn]

I want to keep the Cultist in mind too. If the Cultist is a duke they're going to use their liberally because they know they won't hit a wolf, and aren't worried about dying themselves. If they have a role as well, that could be worse. If they're a Hunter, same thing, they won't worry about bad guys and don't really care if they kill themselves.

[The Jackal]

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.


I want to keep the Cultist in mind too. If the Cultist is a duke they're going to use their liberally because they know they won't hit a wolf, and aren't worried about dying themselves. If they have a role as well, that could be worse. If they're a Hunter, same thing, they won't worry about bad guys and don't really care if they kill themselves.

Looks like we don't have to worry about the cultist using a duke/hunter power, since it doesn't seem like they'll get the ability.

[The Jackal]

In quoting that post I just noticed for the first time that the Cultist becomes a wolf if attacked. Want to make sure everyone else sees that too.

[Shoveler]

Of the current folks with votes the only one I was interested in moving my vote towards was timmae, based off of his assessment this morning that felt hollow. However, if he's not going to be around, I'll just keep my vote on Vaimes for now. I don't believe he's even chimed in since the beginning of the game yesterday. He may be town, as per font's read, but a little more contribution would help ease my mind.

[The Jackal]

vote zinto

[Shoveler]

In quoting that post I just noticed for the first time that the Cultist becomes a wolf if attacked. Want to make sure everyone else sees that too.

Yep, so anyone that uses their ability to no effect needs to die.

[Shoveler]

Yep, so anyone that uses their ability to no effect needs to die.

At least until we have a confirmed dead cultist.

BTW, what does DOLA stand for. I see that all the time when folks post back to back, can't figure that out via a google search.

[The Jackal]

Yep, so anyone that uses their ability to no effect needs to die.

Well, they know they are the cultist and don't have an ability. How would they use it?

There are a few known explanations for why an ability would result in no kill: sam/blank, medic/peacekeeper, and item blocks. But I don't think the cultist even has the choice of "using their ability"

[The Jackal]

I forget what DOLA actually stands for (if anything), but it essentially just means you are adding on to a thought from your previous post. Kinda like PS?

[Shoveler]

Well, they know they are the cultist and don't have an ability. How would they use it?

There are a few known explanations for why an ability would result in no kill: sam/blank, medic/peacekeeper, and item blocks. But I don't think the cultist even has the choice of "using their ability"

Go reread the quote in post #280. "You have the ability to act as the blank or stuttering sam"

[The Jackal]

There are a few known explanations for why an ability would result in no kill: sam/blank, medic/peacekeeper, and item blocks. But I don't think the cultist even has the choice of "using their ability"

meant no kill/no lynch, since i was including the duke stoppers

[The Jackal]

Go reread the quote in post #280. "You have the ability to act as the blank or stuttering sam"

I think that just means they are like blank or sam in that they are a part of their faction but don't have any powers.

[The Jackal]

oh and dola is also supposed to be an unbroken chain of posts

[Shoveler]

I think that just means they are like blank or sam in that they are a part of their faction but don't have any powers.

I disagree, and I dont think we can assume that is the case. Unless Chief clarifies this point we have to go with what the description states, they can act.. so therefore they can try to screw with a duke ability (assuming if they use their non-ability it would force the unknown tiebreaker with another duke using their ability?).. or they could shut down the hunters by jumping the gun with their blank ability.. depending on which side they fall on.

[cheekimonk]

I think timmae is keeping a lower profile, but that would be townread to me as he was all over this board when he was wolf in WoT (all over with his LIES). Like others, would like to hear more from Vaimes and I didn't expect my vote to stay where it was anyway:

unvote fontisian
vote Vaimes

[cheekimonk]

oh and dola is also supposed to be an unbroken chain of posts

Can I take this opp to ask what "dola" means?

[Chief Rum]

Dola is an old, old FOFC reference.

A couple FOFC board iterations back, we had a troll poster named Dolamite. He was really annoying. His particular habit was to string along several posts in a row, each with some small statement or bit of information instead of putting it all in one post.

He got banned, IIRC, although it was for something else, not the post habits.

Anyway, from that, we started to say "dola" at the start of a new post where we were the last post prior to that. Kinda like short for "my apologies, I am pulling a Dolamite".

We also use tri- or triple dola and so forth, or point out when someone broke up our dola attempt by posting while we were typing the dola post.

[Shoveler]

Chief can you confirm whether or not the cultist can use the action they dont really have?

[MartinD]

unvote fontisian
vote MartinD

We've heard very little from him so far, I'd like to hear more..

I haven't exactly been around much - checked in this morning before going to work (about 1.30 Eastern), but didn't have anything to add at that point, and am not long in from work.

[Raven]

Dola is an old, old FOFC reference.

A couple FOFC board iterations back, we had a troll poster named Dolamite. He was really annoying. His particular habit was to string along several posts in a row, each with some small statement or bit of information instead of putting it all in one post.

He got banned, IIRC, although it was for something else, not the post habits.

Anyway, from that, we started to say "dola" at the start of a new post where we were the last post prior to that. Kinda like short for "my apologies, I am pulling a Dolamite".

We also use tri- or triple dola and so forth, or point out when someone broke up our dola attempt by posting while we were typing the dola post.

I remember he was already gone before I came along, so this was a good 15+ years ago, btw!

[Chief Rum]

Chief can you confirm whether or not the cultist can use the action they dont really have?

Nope.

[Raven]

btw, Chief...just noticed we joined in the same month! Oct 2000

[Chief Rum]

I remember he was already gone before I came along, so this was a good 15+ years ago, btw!

Yup, his legacy lives on years and years later lol. Like the cocky and funny line for Hornsmaniac. That one continues to make the rounds.

[Chief Rum]

btw, Chief...just noticed we joined in the same month! Oct 2000

Actually, I think it shows that for everyone, as that was when the board was first created. FOFC actually goes even further back, to the "Sideline" days. That was a board under a different server, but essentially the same community. There was drama there (early days of the growing Internet and all), and we mass moved from that board to this one.

So if you look around, you will see a bunch of October 2000 join ups. That's all us old fogies.

I actually joined the Sideline board way back in 1999, when I first discovered the existence of Front Office Football.

[Grover]

Actually, I think it shows that for everyone, as that was when the board was first created. FOFC actually goes even further back, to the "Sideline" days. That was a board under a different server, but essentially the same community. There was drama there (early days of the growing Internet and all), and we mass moved from that board to this one.

So if you look around, you will see a bunch of October 2000 join ups. That's all us old fogies.

I actually joined the Sideline board way back in 1999, when I first discovered the existence of Front Office Football.

I'm shocked I never ran into this forum. Then again, 16-17 year old me at the time was heavily invested in online leagues using High Heat Baseball.

[Shoveler]

I didn't pick up a copy of FOF7 until the beginning of this year, but apparently I had signed up on this forum back in Jan 2006. So it only took me 9 years to pull the trigger on that purchase :)

[Chief Rum]

Vote Tally (as of Post #304)

Vaimes (3)-- Shoveler (95), Zinto (163), cheekimonk (293)
timmae (2)-- EagleFan (82), Vaimes (85)
Shoveler (2)-- MartinD (83), britrock83 (113)
The Jackal (2)-- Raven (106), timmae (154)
cheekimonk (2)-- JAG (197), Autumn (264)
Zinto (2)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283)
Grover (1)-- fontisian (210)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)
MartinD (1)-- Grover (268)

[JAG]

Ok. It doesn't feel any worse than anyone I have a gut feel on. Some folks I have nothing one way or the other. Some folks I feel are on the radar though they haven't tipped village or wolf yet. It's a long D1.

Obviously getting to this late, but it seemed like your premise for voting fontisian was the part of my quote you referenced, which I later said was flawed. However, that realization didn't seem to change your mind. Can you explain?

Who is on your radar and why?

[JAG]

There's a good chance JAG is scum, but I'm going to give him a break for toDay and see if he turns out useful.

Thanks, I think. Keep an open mind as I'm on Team Village this game.

[JAG]

Oh, I've taken that into account. Clearly if you're playing against someone on a weekly basis, you're going to eventually have a decent read on them.

Not necessarily. I've played against Autumn and Narc a number of times and still don't trust myself to read them correctly due to the amount of times they've fooled me.

[JAG]

For further notice, please anyone who wishes to just UNVOTE and not UNVOTE and VOTE in the same post, please include the player you're unvoting. I almost missed this from unvote from JAG because a simple bolded Unvote doesn't particularly stand out.

Sorry.

[Grover]

unvote MartinD

He spoke up when I said something to him. That's enough for now. Not enough on him for me to consider him suspicious at this point.

[britrock88]

Go reread the quote in post #280. "You have the ability to act as the blank or stuttering sam"

Given the typical duke usage we've discussed (self-protection), the cultist wouldn't have this available to him, so he'd have to try to interfere with someone else's duking. (I know that's been said earlier; just wanted to add my restatement/assent. :) )

If the cultist were a hunter, same thing would go, I suppose... use your "ability" to try to interfere with others'. ...Except that hunter orders are processed in real time. So the cultist could basically set up a Blank claim war. Heh.

[Vaimes]

Aw, I'm the leading wagon. How sweet.

I think I mentioned this last game, but Tuesdays are busy for me.

Unvote timmae
Vote Zinto

[britrock88]

Hmm. Seems like time to consolidate.

[britrock88]

Aw, I'm the leading wagon. How sweet.

I think I mentioned this last game, but Tuesdays are busy for me.

Unvote timmae
Vote Zinto

Go ahead and get a claim out now?

[Chief Rum]

Sorry.

No worries. I said at the start it was okay to unvote that way. It just turned out the practice was a little sketchier than the theory. I don't want to miss unvotes. ;)

[JAG]

I forgot cheek was voted out D1 last game, so I'll give him a pass today, just don't think it's fair to go that way twice in a row.

Unvote
Vote Zinto

Might be it for me til deadline, if my meeting ends early I'll be around towards the end.

[britrock88]

Pure tally manipulation.

unvote Shoveler
vote Jackal

[Shoveler]

Given the typical duke usage we've discussed (self-protection), the cultist wouldn't have this available to him, so he'd have to try to interfere with someone else's duking. (I know that's been said earlier; just wanted to add my restatement/assent. :) )

If the cultist were a hunter, same thing would go, I suppose... use your "ability" to try to interfere with others'. ...Except that hunter orders are processed in real time. So the cultist could basically set up a Blank claim war. Heh.

Yes, if the cultist pulled duke he's hosed.. if the cultist dukes (gets revealed for duking, but nothing happens) for someone else they look suspicious. If the cultist pulled hunter, they could try to be the first shot of the day and block other hunters, and then get revealed as a hunter with no actual shot.

At least that is how I am interpreting the role description. They can put in an order to use the ability of the team they are on, but nothing will happen, but they will be revealed as having used it.

[britrock88]

Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal 3, other candidates 1. Time to get moving, singleton voters.

[Zinto]

I forgot cheek was voted out D1 last game, so I'll give him a pass today, just don't think it's fair to go that way twice in a row.

Unvote
Vote Zinto

Might be it for me til deadline, if my meeting ends early I'll be around towards the end.


+1

I would rather see anyone other than Eagle or Cheeki get voted out today.

[fontisian]

Unvote
Vote Zinto

[britrock88]

Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal 3, other candidates 1. Time to get moving, singleton voters.

BTW, my vote post was a crosspost with JAG's. So that was even more useful in eliminating the crop of 2-vote candidates. ...and it's also how I ended up voting away from the fray all the same. :p

[Chief Rum]

Vote Tally (as of Post #322)

Zinto (5)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321)
Vaimes (3)-- Shoveler (95), Zinto (163), cheekimonk (293)
The Jackal (3)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
Shoveler (1)-- MartinD (83)
cheekimonk (1)-- Autumn (264)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Yet To Vote: Grover

[Vaimes]

Go ahead and get a claim out now?

Eager for info, are we?

Good thing I already claimed.

[Vaimes]

Unvote
Vote Zinto

Witch.

[Grover]

Though I questioned fontisian on her read, I do believe Vaimes is innocent. He was very playful in the first few posts about getting items, etc.

As far as Zinto goes, I haven't heard enough from him one way or the other.

Jackal? He's been fairly helpful, but nothing about him rubs me the wrong way.

So I've got a connundrum, because it's going to be one of these three to get the axe it looks like.

vote Zinto

If only because I feel better about not voting for Vaimes or Jackal.

[Shoveler]

Unvote Vaimes
Vote Jackal

Not sure if it is a good idea to keep the votes close with the duking that will most likely start happening.

Anyhow, I'm moving off of Vaimes. I dont see a good reason to sit on him today as he hasn't been around.

[Zinto]

Well this was an unfortunate run on me :(

[Vaimes]

fontisian: you not responding to my badgering is indicative of pleading guilty to dabbling in witchcraft. Just so you know.

Zinto: :(

[Vaimes]

That smiley (frowny?) is actually making me sad.

Please be a Wolf?

[britrock88]

Still have 4 singletons out there... also still ~90 minutes to lynch.

[Zinto]

That smiley (frowny?) is actually making me sad.

Please be a Wolf?


Unfortunately, I am not. Fortunately, I do not have anything to reveal. Unfortunately, I have an item I wanted to use. Fortunately, it may be passed to one of my fellow villagers. Unfortunately, it may end up in wolfy hands.

[Shoveler]

Fun statistics for day one lynch, courtesy of Cheekicorp.

Chance of lynch leader being a duke: 50%
Chance of lynch leader duking to another duke: 46.67%
Chance of lynch leader duking to a wolf: 20%

[Zinto]

Still have 4 singletons out there... also still ~90 minutes to lynch.


Yeah I wonder if they are going to remember the deadline though. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a few people where they are.

[fontisian]

Though I questioned fontisian on her read, I do believe Vaimes is innocent. He was very playful in the first few posts about getting items, etc.

As far as Zinto goes, I haven't heard enough from him one way or the other.

Jackal? He's been fairly helpful, but nothing about him rubs me the wrong way.

So I've got a connundrum, because it's going to be one of these three to get the axe it looks like.

vote Zinto

If only because I feel better about not voting for Vaimes or Jackal.
Hey Zinto, if you're a duke, duke to Grover please.

[Chief Rum]

Stepping out for an hour for lunch. I'll be back in time to do vote tallies and of course the deadline, but someone may need to track vote tallies in the interim.

[Vaimes]

Unfortunately, I am not. Fortunately, I do not have anything to reveal. Unfortunately, I have an item I wanted to use. Fortunately, it may be passed to one of my fellow villagers. Unfortunately, it may end up in wolfy hands.

You should give it to me!

[Grover]

Hey Zinto, if you're a duke, duke to Grover please.

I would try and get me killed off if I spelled conundrum wrong too.

[Autumn]

In quoting that post I just noticed for the first time that the Cultist becomes a wolf if attacked. Want to make sure everyone else sees that too.

Oh shit, I completely missed that (and forgot the part about the cultist not being able to duke or kill, despite having read that). Thanks for the catch!

[Narcizo]

Meh. This isn't as fun as voting on a fairly blank slate and then having everyone else sort things out. I don't have much of a feeling about any of the leaders but I'm not liking the run on Zinto or how it's suddenly become a two-horse race. Of the three I think Zinto is the best candidate but I'm not enthused at the prospect of his death OR a possible duke to Jackal or Vaimes.

[Zinto]

I am curious to see how the voting for who sits in second goes as much as who sits in first. Vaimes being pushed down for Jackal is something to keep in mind when looking at the voting for today. A wolf really doesn't want to be in first or second this game.

[Zinto]

Meh. This isn't as fun as voting on a fairly blank slate and then having everyone else sort things out. I don't have much of a feeling about any of the leaders but I'm not liking the run on Zinto or how it's suddenly become a two-horse race. Of the three I think Zinto is the best candidate but I'm not enthused at the prospect of his death OR a possible duke to Jackal or Vaimes.


Don't worry I will duke it to you because you placed the first vote.;)

[Autumn]

I have decent reads of both Jackal and Vaimes, and a neutral one of Zinto, so I'm going with that.

<b>unvote cheekimonk
vote zinto</b>

[Zinto]

Yuck, you guys really don't like me do you?

[britrock88]

Hey Zinto, if you're a duke, duke to Grover please.

You should give it to me!

Man. I'm already worrying about the day where these two will be together on a wolfteam.

[Vaimes]

I think I'm going to Daykill fontisian toMorrow.

[britrock88]

I am curious to see how the voting for who sits in second goes as much as who sits in first. Vaimes being pushed down for Jackal is something to keep in mind when looking at the voting for today. A wolf really doesn't want to be in first or second this game.

Good point. But it might be optimistic to assume that the dukes that end up in LL fall into line with our ideas about duking to #2 to generate information. They might just take a vig shot, given the chance.

[britrock88]

Vote Tally (as of Post #347)

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (4)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327)
Vaimes (2)-- Zinto (163), cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
Shoveler (1)-- MartinD (83)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Approaching runaway territory.

[Narcizo]

"Approaching"?

Shouldn't wolf-Zinto be putting up more of a fight? I'm not really used to these situations. I guess he might be a duke and is trying save the argument for tomorrow but this feels like a villager to me.

[britrock88]

My hunch is that he's a hunter.

[britrock88]

And yeah, "approaching" because there are 5 votes on non-Top 2 candidates--enough to catch Jackal up to Zinto.

[Zinto]

My hunch is that he's a hunter.

Yep, yep.

[Zinto]

I am going to hold my item and die with it. I think Chief's random number generator will give it to someone good if it even gets passed when I die.

[fontisian]

Anyone up for a last minute run on someone outside of Jackal, Vaimes and Zinto?

[Autumn]

Anyone up for a last minute run on someone outside of Jackal, Vaimes and Zinto?

I sure hope not.

[Chief Rum]

Vote Tally (as of Post #355)

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (4)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327)
Vaimes (2)-- Zinto (163), cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
Shoveler (1)-- MartinD (83)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[Shoveler]

If zinto has an item, I wonder how it will be redistributed.. does it go to those who voted for him, or randomly to anyone?

[MartinD]

Doesn't look like we're going to have any other candidates, so going with the obvious change of vote to make things a bit closer...

UNVOTE SHOVELER
VOTE THE JACKAL

[fontisian]

If zinto has an item, I wonder how it will be redistributed.. does it go to those who voted for him, or randomly to anyone?
...
Randomly.

Why exactly do you want to know?

[Autumn]

If zinto has an item, I wonder how it will be redistributed.. does it go to those who voted for him, or randomly to anyone?

Could be either or neither, I've seen it and done it both ways, or it could just be lost.

[The Jackal]

Got pulled into an impromptu meeting, just catching up

[Shoveler]

...
Randomly.

Why exactly do you want to know?


Because I have a hidden stash of dead people's shit and I would like to add some more to it.

[Zinto]

Unvote Vaimes
Vote Zinto

[Zinto]

No shenanigans vote

[Shoveler]

you cant vote yourself

[Chief Rum]

Vote Tally (as of Post #360)

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (2)-- Zinto (163), cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[Zinto]

you cant vote yourself


Too late I already did! I will never follow the rules!!! (Also, known as I only skimmed them)

[Chief Rum]

Unvote Vaimes
Vote Zinto


Sorry, not an eligible vote.

[JAG]

...
Randomly.

Why exactly do you want to know?

Zinto, if this is true, don't let it go random, take your best guess at a villager.

[Autumn]

We know Zinto's at least a rule breaker.

[JAG]

Not optimistic the way this vote has gone.

[The Jackal]

Well, he's obviously a Duke judging by that

[Chief Rum]

DEADLINE

[Chief Rum]

Tallying the final vote, and writing up the lynch.

No posting in the mean time.

[Chief Rum]

FINAL VOTE TALLY DAY ONE

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)


No Vote: Zinto

[Chief Rum]

The little swamp village of Roulette feels rather crowded, with the Dukes flooding the town square, or "open patch among the shacks" as the locals call it.

The Hunters gathered on their porches, stroking the barrels of their guns wistfully.

The Dukes, confident and friendly, walk up to the shacks to try and seek out clues to find the oil.

Nothing good can come of that.

The Hunters stream out of their homes, while the Dukes form a defensive circle. Everyone is pointing and yelling at each other. No one person seems to be the focus for anyone.

Gradually, the accusers seem to coalesce on The Jackal, Vaimes and Zinto. And then Vaimes is no longer a part of it either. It's down to The Jackal and Zinto. Who will face the mob's ire?

At long last, they grab Zinto!

One Hunter yells, "His wife cooked us a jambalaya last week that got me and my Pa sick! Zinto's gunna die for that!" The rest of the mob agrees.

Zinto doesn't even put up a protest. He throws down his gun as the crowd grabs him. They carry him off to the river and throw him into a pool of gators! The reptiles tear him limb from limb, until there is little left of Zinto to see.

Zinto was a vanilla VILLAGER and a regular HUNTER!!

[Chief Rum]

Putting together night results.

[Chief Rum]

A quiet night in the swamp falls over the village, as chicadas creak and water plumps as the gators sink below the water surface.

Despite the ugliness of the day, it is a peaceful Creole evening.

You all get a good night's sleep--or at least most of you.

There is a high pitched scream! You all rush over to the shack where the scream came from, only to discover JAG's wife in tears before his bloody body!

JAG's throat was cut and he is dead!

JAG was a Hunter, and the Bully. He was a regular villager.

[Chief Rum]

Day Two has now begun.

The deadline for all actions, day and night, is 4 p.m. EST/1 p.m. PDT Wednesday.

You may commence posting.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah... and...



YEEHAW!! Hunting Season is open! The Hunters have their bullets now and may commence firing on ready!!

[Vaimes]

Wow, town!Hunters need to stop dying.

Duke!fontisian: prepare to die.

[The Jackal]

Well, he's obviously a Duke judging by that

...or not

[Chief Rum]

Note, a quick edit to JAG's death. He was the Bully, not the Peacemaker. That's what I get for reading the wrong line on my spreadsheet lol.

I have edited JAG's kill post to reflect his correct Hunter role.

[Autumn]

I am actually surprised by the kill, because I was thinking JAG might be a baddie, and he was mixing it up enough that he didn't seem a likely day one kill. Tough luck so far.

[EagleFan]

Quick check in. Not a good start but now we can start looking past the day one stuff.

Not a lot to go by yet with the voting history.

I'll be online this evening to read through the thread a little better.


Quick Day one final vote with formatting:
Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[cheekimonk]

Caught up in meetings, sorry. Yipes...not good.

[fontisian]

Grover, give me a good reason not to kill you now.

[Vaimes]

You had the chance to plead for your life and you didn't. I'm disappointed.

[Shoveler]

Cheekicorp stats update

Odds of a Duke being in LL (Day 2): 57%
Odds of a Wolf being in LL (Day 2): 21%

If Duke is in LL
Odds of Duking to another Duke (Day 2): 54%
Odds of Duking to a wolf (Day 2): 23%

Hunters Day 2
Odds of shooting another hunter (Day 2): 38%

[fontisian]

Never mind, I actually kind of want to shoot Shoveler instead.

Shoveler, what are you doing?

[Shoveler]

Never mind, I actually kind of want to shoot Shoveler instead.

Shoveler, what are you doing?

Annoying you?

[fontisian]

Among other things. Why are you analyzing the odds like that?

[Shoveler]

Why not? The odds are completely meaningless. It assumes we know nothing about anyone in the game.

I just wanted to type cheekicorp in another message..

[Chief Rum]

The village is somber after the failed lynching of Zinto and the murder of JAG.

Nonetheless, everyone does their best to move on and get through the day.

A hush had fallen on the midmorning air when the solitude was suddenly shattered by a yell filled with anger and hate.

"Die, witch, die!!" screams Vaimes. "You are evil, and I will send you back to hell!"

He raises his rifle at fontisian, who watched in shock, frozen where she stood. The rifle report crackles and the muzzle roared. fontisian was thrown back with the force of the blast, as everyone stood and stared.

As the gunshot echoed in the distance, one man jumped to action. MartinD, a former Army medic, ran to fontisian. He leaped down beside her and turned over her prone form, holding his hands down on her wound. He yelled for help. Many villagers stumbled forward to offer aid. Vaimes was ignored.

Together, the villagers carried fontisian into MartinD's shack, where he worked hard for several hours to save her life.

At long last, MartinD walked out of his shack, blood on his hands and calmly announced that fontisian will live.

VAIMES, a Hunter, shot FONTISIAN!

She would have been killed, except MARTIND, the Duke Medic, was watching over her.

MARTIND is now just a regular Duke, with no Medic abilities.

FONTISIAN is not allowed to post or vote or take any action until after night actions for Night Two have been posted. She may not be lynched, and any votes on her will be considered invalid until Day Three.

[The Jackal]

Uh.

[The Jackal]

That means that we can't have any further hunter kill attempts until tomorrow, right?

[cheekimonk]

Cheekicorp stats update

Odds of a Duke being in LL (Day 2): 57%
Odds of a Wolf being in LL (Day 2): 21%

If Duke is in LL
Odds of Duking to another Duke (Day 2): 54%
Odds of Duking to a wolf (Day 2): 23%

Hunters Day 2
Odds of shooting another hunter (Day 2): 38%

Ha! Yes! I fully support and officially endorse this post.

[The Jackal]

And I think that clears MartinD from being a wolf, yes?

[The Jackal]

Also, what does LL stand for, Shoveler?

[Raven]

Well that's odd.
Seems a bit random that MartinD chose to watch over Font...

[The Jackal]

Only one Hunter kill will be allowed per day

Chief, are you able to clarify if this means one kill or one kill attempt?

[Raven]

And I think that clears MartinD from being a wolf, yes?

No I don't see that.

[Shoveler]

And I think that clears MartinD from being a wolf, yes?

As far as we know they are all wolves and this is an elaborate attempt to further confuse us. So yeah I agree with Raven, this doesn't clear anyone.

[Shoveler]

Also, what does LL stand for, Shoveler?

Lynch Leader

[Shoveler]

I thought the roles said the medic was a duke role not a hunter role..

[Chief Rum]

That means that we can't have any further hunter kill attempts until tomorrow, right?

Correct.

[cheekimonk]

Well that's odd.
Seems a bit random that MartinD chose to watch over Font...

Agreed. font baits Vaimes into a shot knowing MartinD has her covered? Medic could be wolf or village, if I read the rules correctly.

[Raven]

I thought the roles said the medic was a duke role not a hunter role..

correct

[Chief Rum]

I thought the roles said the medic was a duke role not a hunter role..

Yes, you are correct. I somehow got myself switched around. I'll go back and edit.

MARTIND is a Duke, not a Hunter.

[cheekimonk]

As far as we know they are all wolves and this is an elaborate attempt to further confuse us. So yeah I agree with Raven, this doesn't clear anyone.

That's an interesting thought, too. Sure did happen very quickly on D2.

[MrBug708]

No I don't see that.

I agree. We just know their H/D role, not their wolf/villager role.

[Raven]

Agreed. font baits Vaimes into a shot knowing MartinD has her covered? Medic could be wolf or village, if I read the rules correctly.

I have to think about this more, but something def seems off to me about this whole situation. Seems a bit early in the game to utilize this sort of play, but not if someone wanted to get scanned (Cunning). Who would be the logical person to scan of these 3 now?

I think that two of the 3 could have coordinated this, maybe all 3? Though I really need to think about it some more.

[Shoveler]

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

[Raven]

So MartinD being a Duke would now just duke out of a lynch. Once we analyze this, he seems like he would need to be a logical hunter kill and not a lynch vote, if the thought is he is wolf.

[cheekimonk]

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

I think I lean to all 3 being involved somehow. Vaimes doesn't seem the type to be baited.

[cheekimonk]

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

I think I lean to all 3 being involved somehow. Vaimes doesn't seem the type to be baited.

Of course, font is a master baiter.

[Shoveler]

We know if Martin becomes LL he will duke

and

A hunter cant take out Vaimes without also dying..

-----

the obvious play to me is to lynch vaimes, see how that turns out and then shoot martin tomorrow based on the results.. deal with font afterwards..

but if this is just a coincidence...

[cheekimonk]

We know if Martin becomes LL he will duke

and

A hunter cant take out Vaimes without also dying..

-----

the obvious play to me is to lynch vaimes, see how that turns out and then shoot martin tomorrow based on the results.. deal with font afterwards..

but if this is just a coincidence...

I mean, the odds of that are just...

[Shoveler]

I mean, the odds of that are just...

0.9%

[cheekimonk]

Exactly!

[Vaimes]

Ah, so this is why she's been ignoring me.

I guess we'll just have to kill her toMorrow.

[Shoveler]

Running through various scenarios of how that all unfolded to see what what I can come up with, and there are a few interesting possibilities.

I'll wait for someone else to point them out, I'm sure Narc will jump on what I am thinking as soon as he catches up.

[Vaimes]

Agreed. font baits Vaimes into a shot knowing MartinD has her covered? Medic could be wolf or village, if I read the rules correctly.

That's what I was thinking.

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

She didn't even try to hint that I shouldn't shoot her, or anything. It's baffling.

[The Jackal]

Do you really think there's a cunning, brutal, AND the medic is a wolf?

[The Jackal]

That seems highly improbable

[The Jackal]

But I do think we'll need some clarity on font/vaimes.. and I'm curious to see what Martin says

[Shoveler]

Do you really think there's a cunning, brutal, AND the medic is a wolf?

It's possible.. can't rule it out.

Remember timmae was the black ajah bodyguard in the WoT game. If everything was handed out randomly it's definitely a possibility.

[cheekimonk]

I'm not sure MartinD could have picked up on the real threat on his own in time to protect font. I don't know about Vaimes, but I think font and MartinD had some coordination. Or Vaimes and MartinD. All 3 coordinating? Hmm.

Also, would a wolf Medic burn his ability so soon and for the confusion? Unless they have items to pass around.

[The Jackal]

I'm never one to completely clear people, just saying I find it unlikely. I'd rather hear what Martin has to say than speculate because I want to hear his reasoning and judge it.

[Raven]

A hunter cant take out Vaimes without also dying..


Why not?

[Shoveler]

Why not?

Because he's still a hunter, just without ammo. Unless I missed something in the rules.

[Raven]

Hunters can't be shot?

[The Jackal]

Hunters can't be shot?

If a hunter shoots a hunter they both die.

[Raven]

Btw if this is a coordinated effort among 2-3 of them, then they're clearly holding enough items and/or there are 4 wolves, and they've come up with a plan to get to parity really quickly. Or at least get them close enough to parity that they'd only need the final wolf to get through 1-2 days.

[The Jackal]

That'd be ballsy if all three are wolves. I expect that one of font/vaimes won't last much longer, whether via lynch or kill. Though, they would still have 2 more hunter/duke moves to potentially play with.

[cheekimonk]

Btw if this is a coordinated effort among 2-3 of them, then they're clearly holding enough items and/or there are 4 wolves, and they've come up with a plan to get to parity really quickly. Or at least get them close enough to parity that they'd only need the final wolf to get through 1-2 days.

Agreed. You stated my point better than I.

[Raven]

If a hunter shoots a hunter they both die.

Gotcha.

Chief, is this an absolute or can items nullify this rule?

[The Jackal]

Some of the items could stop a kill from happening but none of them seem to stop a hunter/hunter duke/duke double death.

[cheekimonk]

Some of the items could stop a kill from happening but none of them seem to stop a hunter/hunter duke/duke double death.

To clarify, only items that prevent the kill BEFOREHAND would prevent Hunter/Hunter or Duke/Duke. Think we're saying the same thing...just wanted to make sure.

[cheekimonk]

Of course, font is a master baiter.

Seriously, nothing? Tough crowd...

[EagleFan]

Jeez, a lot to sort out. I'll start with the fun part (kind of like a logic puzzle)/


font is the key to that whole mess (sort of).

If she is a villager that pretty much clears up MartinD (no way a wolf makes that save).

If she is a wolf, well then things get a little iffy. It doesn't clear or condemn MartinD in that case.


Okay, let's think this through:

The possibilities are:

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village


(think I got all the combos)

[EagleFan]

We should be able to rule out C and D. If either of those are the play then MartinD deserves to win for that bold move.

[EagleFan]

Just saw I have H incorrect as far as the possibilities go, that should have all of them as wolves in that scenario.

[The Jackal]

no triple wolf possibility? that's already been floated, though i find it unlikely

[The Jackal]

heh, there it is, continue

[Chief Rum]

Gotcha.

Chief, is this an absolute or can items nullify this rule?

Hunters can't shoot and kill other Hunters without dying, and Dukes can't Duke to other Dukes without dying.

[EagleFan]

With that said, I can't see H being a high probability with the wolves starting out with 2 villagers killed on day one. Why put themselves on our radar?

[EagleFan]

Changed to correct my mistake:

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

[timmae]

I am back to the game... sorry I missed most of the day. Crazy long meetings. I am reading through and will post some thoughts later on. I'll be on a bit tonight but tomorrow will be a more productive day for me here.

[EagleFan]

Sorry, F needs to be red too.

[EagleFan]

A
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes village

B
font village
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

C
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

D
font village
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

E
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes village

F
font wolf
MartinD village
Vaimes wolf

G
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes village

H
font wolf
MartinD wolf
Vaimes wolf

[EagleFan]

No way that F happens so I made that red.

[cheekimonk]

Whatever the truth, kudos for the most intriguing & challenging scenario I've yet to encounter in WW.

[EagleFan]

Crud, nevermind. I need to rethink this whole thing. Forgot about the cultist, adds another layer of possibilities.

[Shoveler]

So the question still remains, why did vaimes shoot font.

A. He suspects something about her
B. No idea why he would out himself like that
E. He suspects or knows something about her
G. Same as above.

[EagleFan]

Either way I see almost no chance of both font and Vaimes being wolves since the only scenario that would be the case is if they were all wolves.

That would also mean that no chance that font is a wolf if Vaimes is the cultist.


I have thought myself into a confused corner. Adding the cultist really twists possibilities around. I see one Occam's Razor scenario (the way I see it at least) before I realized there is a cultist.

[Shoveler]

i dont think the cultist puts themselves in a lynch scenario like this. There is a reasonable chance he doesn't make it to the next night kill based on how we interpret everything.

[cheekimonk]

So the question still remains, why did vaimes shoot font.

A. He suspects something about her
B. No idea why he would out himself like that
E. He suspects or knows something about her
G. Same as above.

He also had to be certain he wouldn't die, too. Which means he:

a) just believed font's Duke claim
b) had validation of font's Duke claim
c) knew font was protected so it didn't matter

[Shoveler]

He also had to be certain he wouldn't die, too. Which means he:

a) just believed font's Duke claim
b) had validation of font's Duke claim
c) knew font was protected so it didn't matter

B is out, vaimes is a hunter and the bully is dead. Only the bully hunter could identify whether font was a duke or hunter.

[EagleFan]

I feel better about Vaimes at this point. I see no scenario where a wolf play would be to basically announce their intention in thread that long before making the play.

Liking the new blood we have in these games. The games aren't turning into Excel vote analysis 101. ;)

[cheekimonk]

B is out, vaimes is a hunter and the bully is dead. Only the bully hunter could identify whether font was a duke or hunter.

Unless Vaimes and font could communicate. Might have eliminated the Vaimes/font both wolves possibility earlier in analysis, if so I apologize.

[cheekimonk]

DOLA, I see the point now. Hunter/Duke kill doesn't kill the Hunter, just outs him. My mistake.

[timmae]

Let's try to have some organization with our shots and dukings. Don't shoot or duke someone without giving them time to claim and other people time to defend or attack them. I'd prefer if early lynches aren't duked though if you feel you must, try to aim for people who have had a lot of discussion and votes about them. Remember, this is a group game. We can't all be Batman.

I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum.

Vaimes... is this what tipped you off to font? I don't like the fact that you shot without gaining much additional input. Ballsy move if it worked but now medic is lost.

Martin, can you explain your protect order? Gut read or some other reason?

[Autumn]

Wow, &#@% is getting real already.

I think simplest assumption is that all are villagers, Vaimes thought he had a read on Font, and was rather sure she was a Duke, so figured there was little risk--it would at least help him with his minor win. You've got to assume there are going to be a handful of "well, this will be fun" moves in this game. Martin had to pick someone, so maybe he just figured Font was a possible target being so vocal, and hinting she was a Duke.

This is not to rule out more nefarious scenarios, but I think we get ourselves in a bad spot if we don't consider the more innocent possibilities. Unfortunately if everyone involved is a villager we have lost out on a shot and a save that could be useful towards endgame, so I hope villagers in general don't insist on making these kind of moves every day.

[Autumn]

Looking at the JAG kill, I want to look at Cheekimonk today in the vote. JAG was suspicious of cheek and the vote only moved away from him because he wasn't around. The wolves may have figured JAG might be back on him tomorrow.

<b>vote cheekimonk</b>

[Autumn]

B is out, vaimes is a hunter and the bully is dead. Only the bully hunter could identify whether font was a duke or hunter.

Or both are wolves so Vaimes knew the duke claim was real.

[Autumn]

i dont think the cultist puts themselves in a lynch scenario like this. There is a reasonable chance he doesn't make it to the next night kill based on how we interpret everything.

Well, for a Cultist, getting killed is a win. but I agree that with the possibility of conversoin this cultist is probably going to play it more conservative.

[Vaimes]

fontisian has been ignoring my threats to kill her and I thought it was weird she wasn't even taunting me or anything, she blatantly claimed Duke so I was fairly certain we wouldn't both die, and I get the satisfaction of almost killing her and shutting her up for a bit.

Whee.

[EagleFan]

Or both are wolves so Vaimes knew the duke claim was real.

I lean towards Vaimes good. I think the simplest is MartinD and font as wolves (or font wolf and MartinD cultist). Sees Vaimes basically saying that he is going after font and protects her. Just seems like a lot of coincidences to have all three as village.

Finding out MartinD is a huge key here. If he is wolf then we know with absolute certainty that font is a wolf.

[EagleFan]

Well, for a Cultist, getting killed is a win.

I agree with the cultist statement. I know the game that I played the most out there and free was when I was a cultist, knowing that even my death would help my cause.

[Raven]

The rules say "Only one Hunter kill will be allowed per day."

Since font was not killed, does that mean another Hunter can shoot today?

[Autumn]

I lean towards Vaimes good. I think the simplest is MartinD and font as wolves (or font wolf and MartinD cultist). Sees Vaimes basically saying that he is going after font and protects her. Just seems like a lot of coincidences to have all three as village.

Finding out MartinD is a huge key here. If he is wolf then we know with absolute certainty that font is a wolf.

I don't know if I'd go so far to absolute, but I suppose I agree, it would be very surprising if a wolf martin was using a protect on a non-wolf duke, unless there were no wolf dukes. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

[Autumn]

Unvote Vaimes
Vote Jackal

Not sure if it is a good idea to keep the votes close with the duking that will most likely start happening.

Anyhow, I'm moving off of Vaimes. I dont see a good reason to sit on him today as he hasn't been around.

Looking back at the voting, this post bugs me. First of all, both Vaimes and jackal hadn't posted in a while (I'll assume Shoveler didn't see Vaimes posts that were just a couple minutes before this). so it seems specious to move because Vaimes isn't around. And this vote was putting Jackal closer to the vote leader, so I'm not sure how that meshes with the comment about not keeping the vote close.

[Autumn]

Meh. This isn't as fun as voting on a fairly blank slate and then having everyone else sort things out. I don't have much of a feeling about any of the leaders but I'm not liking the run on Zinto or how it's suddenly become a two-horse race. Of the three I think Zinto is the best candidate but I'm not enthused at the prospect of his death OR a possible duke to Jackal or Vaimes.

This is also a post i'm not crazy about. I know Narc thinks out loud like me, but this post basically says he doesn't like zinto being pushed in the front, doesn't like jackal being pushed into second, but also doesn't like the idea of Vaimes being duked. Yet he likes Zinto the best. Seems like a lot of dithering without offering any actual candidates.

[timmae]

I feel like I'm spinning wheels on D1 again. I originally voted Jackal because he seemed to be posting simply to pad his post count, so I was comfortable leaving my vote on him. Now that he's contributing, I'm not as comfortable leaving it there, so will likely be moving it, but not sure where.

Raven, why did your vote stay on jackal after you read him as good? I agree that he was more active today and likely would have moved my vote if I was around. Just want to see what your thoughts are.

[Autumn]

Anyone up for a last minute run on someone outside of Jackal, Vaimes and Zinto?

Font, I'd love to hear why you thought this was a workable idea.

[timmae]

Looking back at the voting, this post bugs me. First of all, both Vaimes and jackal hadn't posted in a while (I'll assume Shoveler didn't see Vaimes posts that were just a couple minutes before this). so it seems specious to move because Vaimes isn't around. And this vote was putting Jackal closer to the vote leader, so I'm not sure how that meshes with the comment about not keeping the vote close.

Jackal reads much better based on his posts today than when I read him based on his posts yesterday. I seem to have different reads than others this game but jackal reads good to me.

[Autumn]

Okay, tried to get a bunch in becuase I may be gone for a while tomorrow. Hopefully that tides y'all over!

[Raven]

Raven, why did your vote stay on jackal after you read him as good? I agree that he was more active today and likely would have moved my vote if I was around. Just want to see what your thoughts are.

No solid reason other than didn't feel strongly about anyone. Zinto took the lead, but I didn't want to vote for him because he just hosted last game, so I wasn't voting for him. Things escalated on him, so once the last hour came around, changing my vote wouldn't have changed anything.

[cheekimonk]

I'm going with this for now. I don't see a lot of time for MartinD to see the threat to font, know that it was serious, and intervene - burning his medic - unless there was coordination with someone.

vote MartinD

[Raven]

But MartinD is a Duke, so if he's a wolf, he will 100% Duke to a villager. I think we're better off having a hunter shoot him.

[cheekimonk]

Of course, font is a master baiter.

But MartinD is a Duke, so if he's a wolf, he will 100% Duke to a villager. I think we're better off having a hunter shoot him.

I agree and so I'll probably switch when we reason things out tomorrow. But MartinD doesn't know which of us are Dukes so that would still be a risk for him.

[MartinD]

Well that's odd.
Seems a bit random that MartinD chose to watch over Font...
Martin, can you explain your protect order? Gut read or some other reason?

That's understandable, as it was random - there isn't much information to go on at this point in the game, so I just picked someone.

But MartinD doesn't know which of us are Dukes so that would still be a risk for him.

Wrong - there is one person I know for sure is a Hunter. If I end up on top in today's lynch vote, I duke it to Vaimes. (Of course, that's assuming that no-one else uses their Duke powers - looking at the rules, an 'unknown tiebreaker' will be used if multiple Duke attempts are made.)

I'm not going to be around for most of the day - will check in for a bit around noon Eastern, then hopefully be around for a bit before/after deadline.

[Narcizo]

Weird happenings. Instinct tells me that all that is too much of a coincidence to be all villager but who knows? Shit happens. But I have a hard time believing that Martin just happened to protect Font because of random. Then again we wouldn't think anything of it if Vaimes hadn't targeted Font as we wouldn't know about it.

At the moment I'm wondering if Martin is the cultist. The cultist knows the allegiance of the wolves so he protects the wolf who is a duke (I presume that evil are split 2:2 although that could be completely wrong of course) as that's the closest ally the cultist has.

Ideally we would want to find out what font is as that should give us a good read on Martin and Vaimes. Unfortunately we can't kill font today. I shall have to have a think about it.

[Narcizo]

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)
20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:37 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[Narcizo]

People better check that for fail as it's kind of hard to do. Urgh! I've already seen that I missed Martin's vote on #358.

I think we're seeing the result of the early deadline. It seemed like we were hamstrung by the fact that we couldn't risk getting a new target later on because of the fear that said target would have a power role and wouldn't be around to reveal. I think that's something we will have to address. I particularly don't like the way that timmae faded from contention because of his unavailability. (I've probably benefited from the same argument in the past but I still don't like it).

If Jackal or Vaimes are wolf then you would want to look at the later Zinto voters. If, as I suspect, all are villager then I don't really know how much you can read into things.

[Narcizo]

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)
20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

[Narcizo]

This is also a post i'm not crazy about. I know Narc thinks out loud like me, but this post basically says he doesn't like zinto being pushed in the front, doesn't like jackal being pushed into second, but also doesn't like the idea of Vaimes being duked. Yet he likes Zinto the best. Seems like a lot of dithering without offering any actual candidates.

I freely admit that its a post that has zero value for the village. Then again it has less than zero value for me if I'm a wolf. I'm not used to actually being around during deadline so I didn't really know how to approach the situation of what seemed to be Zinto's likely villagerness.

[Narcizo]

This bit is kind of interesting. Were I a village medic there's no way that I would protect a random on day two. So, to me, that looks like the work of someone on the baddy side. However I recognise that people don't always think in the same way as I do and that a lot of people don't like to leave a power without using it. So I'm interested in what other people think.

Point 2 of interestingness. Do we automatically not vote for someone we know is a duke because we know that they could shift the vote? I'm kind of thinking that we vote for the person we're most suspicious of and see how they react if they are a duke. If a bad guy knows he's going to be day killed the next day then he's likely to duke the vote anyway, just to mess around with the village.

[cheekimonk]

Wrong - there is one person I know for sure is a Hunter. If I end up on top in today's lynch vote, I duke it to Vaimes. (Of course, that's assuming that no-one else uses their Duke powers - looking at the rules, an 'unknown tiebreaker' will be used if multiple Duke attempts are made.)


True. But I don't feel good about either of you. Vaimes could have known font was protected which means you would all have to be wolves (I think we've eliminated that possibility for now), or Vaimes could have telegraphed his shot so someone would protect font (which would HAVE to put font and Vaimes in contact with each other).

It is a factor to consider, but I wanted to get a vote on the board before I went to bed to capture my initial impression.

[Narcizo]

fontisian has been ignoring my threats to kill her and I thought it was weird she wasn't even taunting me or anything, she blatantly claimed Duke so I was fairly certain we wouldn't both die, and I get the satisfaction of almost killing her and shutting her up for a bit.

Whee.

Blatantly claimed Duke? Did I miss that bit? To me she was claiming to be a hunter in order to put pressure on people. Can you post the bit where she claimed duke please.

[cheekimonk]

Blatantly claimed Duke? Did I miss that bit? To me she was claiming to be a hunter in order to put pressure on people. Can you post the bit where she claimed duke please.

Well, that could be damning. If font didn't claim Duke (nobody disputed Vaimes' post, so I was assuming she did...playing catchup as I was) then Vaimes and font were sure as hell communicating. No way he attempts a kill on another Hunter unless he's 100% certain she's protected.

[Grover]

Morning guys! Catching up on all I missed from 5PM - on last night. Will post thoughts at some point.

[Shoveler]

Cool.

I am become death, destroyer of worlds.


My goal this game is to be responsible for the death of someone. Luckily, that probably be very easy.

Let's try to have some organization with our shots and dukings. Don't shoot or duke someone without giving them time to claim and other people time to defend or attack them. I'd prefer if early lynches aren't duked though if you feel you must, try to aim for people who have had a lot of discussion and votes about them. Remember, this is a group game. We can't all be Batman.

I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum.

Can I ask why the role of the person duked to (beyond their alignment, obviously) matters? Why is duking to a village hunter more suspicious than duking to a village duke?

Even if a village duke kills themself and another village duke, if they're both people under a lot of suspicious, that saves us time and let's us do vote analysis the next Day. I don't see the issue.

How exactly would it give cover for "random duking"?

Nah, Vaimes is town, as per usual.

Nothing stuck out to me until that post of yours and timmae's most recent post. I'll make a serious vote when I have a serious vote to make.

Explain your other points, then. How exactly would my strategy risk offing a town power role?

It's unusual for you to miss an important detail like that when you're voting.

Is there any merit to having everyone claim Hunter or Duke? It prevents scum from accidentally shooting into the people that hurt them, but it also allows us to better organize town shots/dukes (and there are more of those).

I've actually got town reads on Vaimes, Jackal, Cheeki and Narc, do let's not lynch in that group.

There's a good chance JAG is scum, but I'm going to give him a break for toDay and see if he turns out useful.

Vote Grover
Hi. Your vote is weak. This is your chance to justify it better.

Oh, timmae's also on the possible scum I'm watching but would feel bad (but not that bad) about lynching for his tryhardiness.

Grover: 1. Vaimes is a close friend irl.
2. I've had just a strong a townread on him last game.

If you're going to talk to me, then talk to me.

I'm confident enough in my town reads to state them and try to give them some protection toDay. That's a pretty low bar. What precisely is your issue with it?

More to the point, why exactly are you unvoting Grover when his vote is based on something that did not bother him in the past couple ganes?

No, you clearly haven't.

If you really have a problem with my ability to read Vaimes, why didn't you say something in any of our prior games?

Unvote
Vote Zinto

Hey Zinto, if you're a duke, duke to Grover please.

Anyone up for a last minute run on someone outside of Jackal, Vaimes and Zinto?

...
Randomly.

Why exactly do you want to know?

Grover, give me a good reason not to kill you now.

Never mind, I actually kind of want to shoot Shoveler instead.

Shoveler, what are you doing?

Among other things. Why are you analyzing the odds like that?

Think this is all of font's posts thus far into the game.

[timmae]

vote martind

His protection of font is very questionable. If anyone thinks he is good I am certain he will not be able to duke due to the peacemaker. The laser scope could affect his protect order and duke/hunter but I think that is unlikely. I would like to hear others thoughts on this though as we may not want to deal with the martin situation with his lynch today.

[Grover]

So clearly font was threatening to kill me if I didn't give her a reason otherwise.

Vaimes clearly has a thought or read on her, that's my assumption on why he attempted to kill her.

MartinD really confounds me. I don't get the protection order on font. I would certainly like to know more.

Right now I'm putting a vote on...

vote cheekimonki

I find it very hard that he can buy into the story that MartinD is the medic AND a wolf. The outcome is so small, I can't see it happening here. If anything, MartinD is a villager. Vaimes and font are still completely questionable.

Placing a vote here now, but as always, subject to change.

[Narcizo]

vote martind

His protection of font is very questionable. If anyone thinks he is good I am certain he will not be able to duke due to the peacemaker. The laser scope could affect his protect order and duke/hunter but I think that is unlikely. I would like to hear others thoughts on this though as we may not want to deal with the martin situation with his lynch today.

Peacemaker using their power results in a no-lynch I think, although it's not transparent. Not the most fantastic of results for the village.

[b]Chief - if a peacemaker uses his power
a) does it result in a no-lynch even if no-one dukes?
b) is the identity of the duke who tried to move the vote revealed?
c) is it used up even if no-one tries to duke?

[Narcizo]

Gah! Bold fail.


Chief - if a peacemaker uses his power
a) does it result in a no-lynch even if no-one dukes?
b) is the identity of the duke who tried to move the vote revealed?
c) is it used up even if no-one tries to duke?

[EagleFan]

If we go MartinD and allow him to duke we find out about the three wolf theory. If he doesn't duke to Vaimes it gives the three wolf theory some traction.

The problem is that in my mind at least the most likely scenarios have Vaimes as village.

Going in to work in a moment. Will get online at lunch to post, hopefully on the laptop (hate doing this phone posting).

[EagleFan]

vote MartinD