WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387) [Archive] - Page 3

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Narcizo

04-22-2015, 07:39 AM

I find it very hard that he can buy into the story that MartinD is the medic AND a wolf. The outcome is so small, I can't see it happening here. If anything, MartinD is a villager. Vaimes and font are still completely questionable.

Why is that chance so small? My intrepretation of the rules is that a wolf has just as much chance of being the medic as any individual villager (1/8). Presuming that there are 2 evil dukes (Still not sure about this but for the sake of argument) then there's a 25% chance that the medic is evil.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 07:41 AM

If we go MartinD and allow him to duke we find out about the three wolf theory. If he doesn't duke to Vaimes it gives the three wolf theory some traction.

The problem is that in my mind at least the most likely scenarios have Vaimes as village.

I was worried about this but the fact that Vaimes claims that Fonti blatantly claimed to be duke despite the evidence to the contrary makes me much happier about a vote being duked to Vaimes than I was before I noticed that. (when I had Vaimes as my most trusted villager).

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 07:44 AM

There is also the bullhorn available which prevents any duking. Not sure if I think the situation would warrant using it at this stage. And, of course, it might be in the hands of the wolves.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 07:46 AM

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 08:00 AM

If martin is town, and we vote him he has to burn his duke ability and presumably he dukes to vaimes.

If vaimes is wolf in this situation, he's hosed, so the only way to save him is for a duke wolf to duke and hope for the best in the tie breaker, or use an item to prevent the duke.

Worst case is that the hunter peacemaker is a wolf, and nullifies the duke. Vaimes looks suspicious in this case.

-----------

If martin is a wolf, and vaimes is town, martin dukes to vaimes. Vaimes turns up good and we still look at martin with suspicion.

-----------

If none of them are wolves.. then vaimes actions, and the coincidence of martin protecting font, have just wasted a day for the town.

timmae

04-22-2015, 08:06 AM

Why is that chance so small? My intrepretation of the rules is that a wolf has just as much chance of being the medic as any individual villager (1/8). Presuming that there are 2 evil dukes (Still not sure about this but for the sake of argument) then there's a 25% chance that the medic is evil.

Can you recheck that. I am thinking that the chance has to be 0.9% or thereabouts! #cheekicorp :p

timmae

04-22-2015, 08:09 AM

Why is that chance so small? My intrepretation of the rules is that a wolf has just as much chance of being the medic as any individual villager (1/8). Presuming that there are 2 evil dukes (Still not sure about this but for the sake of argument) then there's a 25% chance that the medic is evil.

All joking aside... as I read the rules any combination of village/wolf and duke/hunter roles seems possible. I won't get into arguing the percentages but I believe it is an equal likelihood :)

Autumn

04-22-2015, 08:15 AM

timmae

04-22-2015, 08:15 AM

Do I take it that all the people voting Martin agree with me that they would not protect a random player if they were the medic on day two? Otherwise I don't see why you would find Martin's actions particularly suspicious.

If I am medic in that situation I don't think I would protect a player who has not claimed. I'd likely wait for a good aux claim or someone I had a very good read on. It could be playing vegas odds in an unknown scenario but I am leaning evil there. The martin vote tells us the most about the vaimes/font/martin triangle. I am around all day so I am equally ok with moving to a suspected evil if things move in that direction.

timmae

04-22-2015, 08:16 AM

#crosspost lol.

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 08:17 AM

All joking aside... as I read the rules any combination of village/wolf and duke/hunter roles seems possible. I won't get into arguing the percentages but I believe it is an equal likelihood :)

I also believe so. Chief is usually pretty fair and truly random and the rules don't forbade wolves from having Duke/Hunter roles, which would allow for such things.

Grover

04-22-2015, 08:18 AM

I don't think obsessing over the Martin/Font/Vaimes triangle is going to do us good right now. There are a lot of possibilities, and with time, we will begin to figure out which one. But letting the vote center simply on those three is going to hurt us in the long run. I suggest we find other candidates, and let that action be just one piece of evidence we keep in mind.

I completely agree with this. We're working ourselves up over a small portion of the village. There is the chance that not a single one of the three are wolves. If that happens to be the case, we're really wasting today. At the same time, it's been hard to get a read on anybody. It's been kept really close to the vest all around.

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 08:22 AM

The rules say "Only one Hunter kill will be allowed per day."

Since font was not killed, does that mean another Hunter can shoot today?

I believe Chief said one kill/attempted kill per day, no?

timmae

04-22-2015, 08:23 AM

I don't think obsessing over the Martin/Font/Vaimes triangle is going to do us good right now. There are a lot of possibilities, and with time, we will begin to figure out which one. But letting the vote center simply on those three is going to hurt us in the long run. I suggest we find other candidates, and let that action be just one piece of evidence we keep in mind.

We know a little about vaimes and can wait on him I think. Font is a non issue today. I am voting martin right now in order to at least get something out of todays lynch unless something else presents itself. There has been some traction with cheeki but he is reading more as a noob villager. I think evil cheeki has been more defensive of any votes going his way but I need to check his past few games.

Grover

04-22-2015, 08:43 AM

Why is that chance so small? My intrepretation of the rules is that a wolf has just as much chance of being the medic as any individual villager (1/8). Presuming that there are 2 evil dukes (Still not sure about this but for the sake of argument) then there's a 25% chance that the medic is evil.

Because I am horrible at math.

I will show myself out ;)

For some reason I was thinking the odds were lower than that.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 09:02 AM

I don't think obsessing over the Martin/Font/Vaimes triangle is going to do us good right now. There are a lot of possibilities, and with time, we will begin to figure out which one. But letting the vote center simply on those three is going to hurt us in the long run. I suggest we find other candidates, and let that action be just one piece of evidence we keep in mind.

I agree in theory. Obsessing about anything is never a good idea - as I, more than most, know in werewolf. But it is kind of hard when the two tangible question marks, for me, are about Vaimes and Martin.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:19 AM

Think this is all of font's posts thus far into the game.

Wow. I mean, based on all that there is no way Vaimes knew font was a duke unless they were in contact.

Grover

04-22-2015, 09:20 AM

Wow. I mean, based on all that there is no way Vaimes knew font was a duke unless they were in contact.

Meaning at best: educated guess.
At worst: they're both wolves trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:24 AM

vote cheekimonki

I find it very hard that he can buy into the story that MartinD is the medic AND a wolf. The outcome is so small, I can't see it happening here. If anything, MartinD is a villager. Vaimes and font are still completely questionable.

Placing a vote here now, but as always, subject to change.

My suspicion of MartinD has nothing to do with thoughts of whether he could be Medic AND wolf (that's certainly possible). It was the fact that there's no way he both knew Vaimes was serious and had time to get in his protection order on font before Vaimes pulled the trigger (because Vaimes did so pretty quickly). In my eyes, MartinD had to have contact with either font or Vaimes, or both, to coordinate.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:25 AM

Grover

04-22-2015, 09:25 AM

My suspicion of MartinD has nothing to do with thoughts of whether he could be Medic AND wolf (that's certainly possible). It was the fact that there's no way he both knew Vaimes was serious and had time to get in his protection order on font before Vaimes pulled the trigger (because Vaimes did so pretty quickly). In my eyes, MartinD had to have contact with either font or Vaimes, or both, to coordinate.

Okay. This is much more compelling for me. Thanks, cheek.

unvote cheekimonk

timmae

04-22-2015, 09:30 AM

Let's try to have some organization with our shots and dukings. Don't shoot or duke someone without giving them time to claim and other people time to defend or attack them. I'd prefer if early lynches aren't duked though if you feel you must, try to aim for people who have had a lot of discussion and votes about them. Remember, this is a group game. We can't all be Batman.

I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum.

Vaimes... is this what tipped you off to font? I don't like the fact that you shot without gaining much additional input. Ballsy move if it worked but now medic is lost.

Martin, can you explain your protect order? Gut read or some other reason?

fontisian has been ignoring my threats to kill her and I thought it was weird she wasn't even taunting me or anything, she blatantly claimed Duke so I was fairly certain we wouldn't both die, and I get the satisfaction of almost killing her and shutting her up for a bit.

Whee.

Seems like a meta read from Vaimes. Not sure what to make of that... vaimes has been known to rock the boat as town. Going off of memory but vaimes seems consistent with last game when he was chaotic villager. Need to reread to compare.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:33 AM

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:38 AM

With Vaimes apparently screwing up and outing font as a duke (he said she claimed when she never did), that screams wolf. So, if MartinD dukes to Vaimes, a wolf still dies. If MartinD dukes to anyone else, he's taking his chances that he doesn't duke to a Duke which would kill him, too.

I don't think so. I also had Font down in my notes as Duke. She didn't say it outright, but I thought it was clear from her posts. My vote is staying here on Cheeki, who seems to be excited to have this handle to push a lynch with.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:41 AM

I don't think so. I also had Font down in my notes as Duke. She didn't say it outright, but I thought it was clear from her posts. My vote is staying here on Cheeki, who seems to be excited to have this handle to push a lynch with.

I'm excited that I seem to finally understand things enough to analyze. Plus, this is an intriguing situation to ponder, so it's enjoyable in that sense.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:42 AM

My suspicion of MartinD has nothing to do with thoughts of whether he could be Medic AND wolf (that's certainly possible). It was the fact that there's no way he both knew Vaimes was serious and had time to get in his protection order on font before Vaimes pulled the trigger (because Vaimes did so pretty quickly). In my eyes, MartinD had to have contact with either font or Vaimes, or both, to coordinate.

What do you mean by this? Vaimes I believe had stated the day before that he was going to kill Font the next day. That seems like a lot of time, or do you mean he didn't have time to send the actual order in once deadline came about?

Grover

04-22-2015, 09:43 AM

What do you mean by this? Vaimes I believe had stated the day before that he was going to kill Font the next day. That seems like a lot of time, or do you mean he didn't have time to send the actual order in once deadline came about?

Did he hint on this yesterday? I only remember seeing Vaims mention it right after deadline yesterday. Early evening.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:43 AM

timmae

04-22-2015, 09:44 AM

Reread false claim martyr villager!vaimes in pokemon to compare to this vaimes. His activity seems to be fairly similar. His explanation of his martyr claim was much more details than what he offered up here. I assume that has a little to do with defending himself to the entire group in pokemon to defending himself to me here. His tone seems consistent but he is a little less focused on minor comments that show he is following the game closely (he provided nudges and input in pokemon). I am talking myself in circles but there seems to be a different vaimes, however slightly, in this game.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:46 AM

Looking at Vaimes posts just now I see him saying he will kill Font at 3, again at 5, and again at 8. So twice after deadline, admittedly, and once before it. Certainly enough that it doesn't seem shocking to me that Martin saw it coming. Still suspicious perhaps that he chose to use his power not knowing Font's allegiance, but not surprising he thought of her as a target.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:46 AM

What do you mean by this? Vaimes I believe had stated the day before that he was going to kill Font the next day. That seems like a lot of time, or do you mean he didn't have time to send the actual order in once deadline came about?

As far as timing, there's no way MartinD had time to get his protection order in before Vaimes pulled the trigger unless there was some kind of coordination. Keep in mind I was reading posts after the fact, but Vaimes pulled the trigger pretty quickly. MartinD had to have made the decision to protect font before that because even if he protected her on D1 (can you protect someone twice?) it wouldn't have automatically carried over to D2.

Grover

04-22-2015, 09:47 AM

Feels like we haven't heard from Font in a while.

From Chief's action post.

"FONTISIAN is not allowed to post or vote or take any action until after night actions for Night Two have been posted. She may not be lynched, and any votes on her will be considered invalid until Day Three."

timmae

04-22-2015, 09:48 AM

For the record, this is the sentence which I believe revealed Font as a Duke:

"I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum."

This suggested that she was willing to start with a Duke kill despite it going against her own interests. Still a chance to take to target her, I had her down with a question mark, but not nothing.

Feels like we haven't heard from Font in a while.

*snip*
FONTISIAN is not allowed to post or vote or take any action until after night actions for Night Two have been posted. She may not be lynched, and any votes on her will be considered invalid until Day Three.[/b]

I don't think she can post today.

timmae

04-22-2015, 09:49 AM

Back to crossposting... arghhh.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 09:49 AM

For the record, this is the sentence which I believe revealed Font as a Duke:

"I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum."

This suggested that she was willing to start with a Duke kill despite it going against her own interests. Still a chance to take to target her, I had her down with a question mark, but not nothing.

Feels like we haven't heard from Font in a while.

font can't post today after being healed by Medic. But Vaimes didn't say he deduced that font was Duke. He said that font "blatantly claimed Duke" which never happened by any measure.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 10:10 AM

lol, whoops! That explains that.

I'm heading out for a few hours. Will be back before deadline, but close to it.

Raven

04-22-2015, 10:13 AM

But font's own posts actually imply she is a Hunter, not a Duke.

Grover, give me a good reason not to kill you now.

Never mind, I actually kind of want to shoot Shoveler instead.

Shoveler, what are you doing?

timmae

04-22-2015, 10:19 AM

Stepping back from the triangle of craziness... jackal is reading good to me yesterday. I like what I have seen from shoveler, narc, brit and EF. I have question marks with raven, cheeki and grover but I feel like I always tunnel there. Autumn seems consistent with his questions and content but possibly a little pingy. Mrbug has been absent it seems. I want to hear more from him.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:34 AM

Minor timewarp.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:34 AM

Vaimes gave font more than adequate warning before he shot

This gave martin time to protect font

Not sure what to make of that but this whole things just smells rotten.

Certainly an interesting situation. As we look at it, remember that Martin may have wanted to protect Font either because of a positive village/wolf read or because she was a Duke claimant.

Vaimes's warning... I'm not quite sure what to make of it, but does it seem that it could be worse than alignment-neutral in effect? If you think through the reasons Wolf!Vaimes would have given a warning, you can essentially rule out the point of giving that warning in thread because the complicit actors of Font or Martin could have been in on it in wolfchat.

So I think the whole thing cuts toward Vaimes being good... but now that Vaimes has used his vig shot, he's probably a top candidate for a duking.

I think it also makes it more likely that Martin and Font have the same alignment, good or bad. (Though Good!Martin could have protected Bad!Font, which would stink.)

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:34 AM

Seriously, nothing? Tough crowd...

I gave it a desk-laugh (you know, where you exhale a brief burst through your nose :p ). It's just the timing... she can't defend herself today!

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:34 AM

Crud, nevermind. I need to rethink this whole thing. Forgot about the cultist, adds another layer of possibilities.

Auxes make things auxward sometimes.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:35 AM

I'm really starting to wonder if Vaimes is our Cultist. His play is still out front the better part of a day later; draws attention and a possible kill his way; ...

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:36 AM

But font's own posts actually imply she is a Hunter, not a Duke.

I think Font's probably set her posts up so that either D/H is a possible interpretation. How substantial is her D/H alignment in the bigger V/W picture?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:38 AM

I'm torn today. I like lynching into confusing situations like ours to begin to make sense of it, but I seriously think this could be a well set-up plan by Vaimes to draw a ton of focus, rid the Duke medic of his ability, and waste a lynch.

Where do we go from here?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:39 AM

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.

Hang on. I'm a dolt. See ^.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:40 AM

So, chaotic good or chaotic evil for Vaimes, then? :p

britrock88

04-22-2015, 10:40 AM

(I'll stop the soliloquy for now.)

Vaimes

04-22-2015, 10:42 AM

Raven

04-22-2015, 10:42 AM

I'm really starting to wonder if Vaimes is our Cultist. His play is still out front the better part of a day later; draws attention and a possible kill his way; ...

Seems unlikely, since he would HAVE to be The Blank AND The Cultist.
I think we can rule out Vaimes being the Cultist.

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.

THE BLANK-- You don't know it, but someone slipped you a clip with blanks. Your shot will not kill the target.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 10:49 AM

Vaimes's warning... I'm not quite sure what to make of it, but does it seem that it could be worse than alignment-neutral in effect? If you think through the reasons Wolf!Vaimes would have given a warning, you can essentially rule out the point of giving that warning in thread because the complicit actors of Font or Martin could have been in on it in wolfchat.

The warning could have been designed to elicit exactly the confusion we're in right now.

timmae

04-22-2015, 10:50 AM

Seems unlikely, since he would HAVE to be The Blank AND The Cultist.
I think we can rule out Vaimes being the Cultist.

Yes, vaimes is not the cultist. He injured font. No items would allow the BLANK to injure.

Raven

04-22-2015, 10:53 AM

^^Actually scratch that. It seems The Cultist would think he could shoot, but the effect would be as if he was The Blank, even though he wasn't specifically The Blank. So he wouldn't HAVE to be The Blank if he was The Cultist.

Am I now interpreting that correctly?

Raven

04-22-2015, 10:56 AM

Yes, vaimes is not the cultist. He injured font. No items would allow the BLANK to injure.

But his shot was intercepted, so we don't know if it would have killed font had it hit. Depends on how Chief set up the mechanics of this.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 10:58 AM

But his shot was intercepted, so we don't know if it would have killed font had it hit. Depends on how Chief set up the mechanics of this.

It wasn't intercepted (as it would have been by the BG). It hit font who was then healed by MartinD. Vaimes was not shooting blanks.

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 10:59 AM

Just thinking out loud here. but I think we have to make martin use his duke today. But we dont need to lynch vote him.

We can go another way with the lynch vote, but, I think any vanilla villager dukes that may find themselves in the lynch lead should duke to martin for the double duke. This will force him to use his ability in that event, and we see what happens in the tie breaker mechanic.

Raven

04-22-2015, 11:00 AM

It wasn't intercepted (as it would have been by the BG). It hit font who was then healed by MartinD. Vaimes was not shooting blanks.

OK. Makes sense. Thanks for clarifying. I was confusing myself.

timmae

04-22-2015, 11:05 AM

It wasn't intercepted (as it would have been by the BG). It hit font who was then healed by MartinD. Vaimes was not shooting blanks.

There's a joke hidden here somewhere... :p

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 11:18 AM

There's a joke hidden here somewhere... :p

I've hit my quota for the day.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 11:23 AM

fontisian claimed Duke here.

"I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay [...] minor win condition be damned [...]."

As in, "I want to kill a Duke toDay even though I am a Duke because reasons."

Ok I can see that now. Gotta say that that's a case of your tone hurting the village as I was looking for more recent posts where Font explicitly claimed Duke. I wouldn't take a risk like that based on what she said but we're back to the Martin situation where others don't act as I would.

Did you not consider that font "blatantly claiming" duke would be a weird thing for a wolf to do? As it opens them to day-killing.

The scenario for Vaimes killing font doesn't have to be as Machiveliean as cheeki paints. There could be a wolf buddy who scanned font and told Vaimes about it.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 11:27 AM

Raven

04-22-2015, 11:30 AM

Vaimes doesn't seem to care much about all this, despite a ton of attention focused on him.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 11:31 AM

Morning folks.

I'll get a vote count going shortly.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 11:34 AM

Well, I've analyzed what I can of the trio for what it's worth. My read yesterday was Vaimes but I don't feel I can go there today.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 11:35 AM

I was pretty sure about Vaimes being village until I looked at the recent font posts. I don't know if I have that certainty anymore but I still tend to think that risking a daykill this early points towards villagish lack of concern of own well-being, so having seen font's comment again I wanna put Vaimes in with Shoveler, Jackal and cheeki.

Autumn has migrated a bit from pretty negative to sort of neutral for me but he has been pinging me.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 11:41 AM

Also, I'm covered in meetings up until deadline but not running the last one so may have time to hop back in.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 11:41 AM

I forgot about the cultist not having hunter/duke powers - Vaimes being cultist had crossed my mind but my interpretation of the rules says that he can't be.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 11:50 AM

Phone posting so keeping it short. Stuck waiting on my car to get finished, that came up this morning as they could fit me in. Meeting coming up but will try to get some down time afterwards to read through the posts.

We should probably go MartinD and a player from yesterday's vote. That way it's not a runaway. We can get information with today's vote that way, sort of kill two birds with one stone and hopefully catch a wolf in the process.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 11:56 AM

The only problem is I don't like anyone from yesterday's vote (jackal, Vaimes or timmae - can't vote for Font). Or cheeki for that matter. Who continues to exude villager confusion rather that bad intent to my ears.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 12:03 PM

I don't really understand the argument about Martin reacting to Font or Vaimes. He's already claimed that his decision was random. My guess is that you get to give a protect order before Day break. This goes for people claiming that " there's no way he could have reacted in time" and the people who claim that he could have reacted to Vaimes' threats etc etc.

Not quite - it was more along the lines of 'one of the Hunters is probably going to be trigger-happy, and I'm around at deadline - makes sense to make a choice of someone to protect early in the day just in case'.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 12:05 PM

Gah! Bold fail.

Chief - if a peacemaker uses his power
a) does it result in a no-lynch even if no-one dukes?
b) is the identity of the duke who tried to move the vote revealed?
c) is it used up even if no-one tries to duke?

If there is no duking, there is no need for the Peacemaker to intervene. A lynch would happen and the Peacemaker would continue to have his power.

The identity of anyone who attempts to Duke (and thus loses their Duke ability) will be clear from the write-ups.

Anyone who tries to Duke will lose their Duke ability, whether it works or not.

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 12:05 PM

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 12:05 PM

I believe Chief said one kill/attempted kill per day, no?

Correct.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 12:10 PM

Well, I'm going to vote for the person that I feel has been extra shady last night and today. Hopefully someone will duke to martin today so we can get a good look at what we are dealing with regarding that whole fiasco.

Vote Autumn

I don't really follow your thinking here. Do you want Autumn lynched or a duke to commit suicide duking to Martin?

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 12:17 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #574)

MartinD (3)-- cheekimonk (480), timmae (495), EagleFan (500)
Autumn (1)-- Shoveler (572)
cheekimonk (1)-- Autumn (465)

Yet to Vote: Many

Unable to Vote: fontisian

timmae

04-22-2015, 12:19 PM

I haven't played with mrbug before... is he usually a low volume poster? I am not sure how we resolve this with wanting a possible duke to martin. If he's never around then we waste that opportunity. But if he isn't helping us track down evil then we are also hurt. Thoughts?

Grover

04-22-2015, 12:20 PM

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 12:21 PM

I don't really follow your thinking here. Do you want Autumn lynched or a duke to commit suicide duking to Martin?

Both?

There are 8 dukes in the game currently. Can't hurt to burn a few today.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 12:22 PM

Putting a placeholder vote down:

VOTE CHEEKIMONK

I'm not around for a couple of hours, but should be back a bit before deadline.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 12:29 PM

I'm trying to decide what has been pinging me about Autumn. This is what I've come up with.

Looking at the JAG kill, I want to look at Cheekimonk today in the vote. JAG was suspicious of cheek and the vote only moved away from him because he wasn't around. The wolves may have figured JAG might be back on him tomorrow.

<b>vote cheekimonk</b>

The first conclusion I draw when Jag is night-killed is that there is a vet in the wolves. Not that its some sort of plan to cover for cheeki. Feels like a reach to me.

This is also a post i'm not crazy about. I know Narc thinks out loud like me, but this post basically says he doesn't like zinto being pushed in the front, doesn't like jackal being pushed into second, but also doesn't like the idea of Vaimes being duked. Yet he likes Zinto the best. Seems like a lot of dithering without offering any actual candidates.

I don't feel like Autumn thinks I post this as a wolf. Maybe he's thinking out loud as well. But his thinking out loud seems to have a purpose ( casting suspicion my way) while mine was expressing frustration at the fact that I didn't like any of the candidates but didn't feel able to move the vote.

I don't think obsessing over the Martin/Font/Vaimes triangle is going to do us good right now. There are a lot of possibilities, and with time, we will begin to figure out which one. But letting the vote center simply on those three is going to hurt us in the long run. I suggest we find other candidates, and let that action be just one piece of evidence we keep in mind.

I've seen wolf Autumn post villager-helpful comments. This could mean that all three are village and wolf-Autumn is expecting a Martin lynch and is laying the groundwork for a "told you so! Let's all vote cheeki now" day three. Except more-subtle like. Dunno. Maybe it means font and Martin are wolves and he wants to buy time for them.

Not much to hang one's hat on. I know that I can be guilty of misreading village Autumn as suspicious. But I agree that we need candidates so I'm going this way for now

vote Autumn

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 12:30 PM

Both?

There are 8 dukes in the game currently. Can't hurt to burn a few today.

You can't have both.

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 12:30 PM

I don't really follow your thinking here. Do you want Autumn lynched or a duke to commit suicide duking to Martin?

Ok I'll explain what I am thinking..

If Autumn is village and a duke, he might agree with my thinking about duking to martin and sacrificing himself.

If Autumn is a wolf duke, he definitely doesn't duke to a known village duke, and he doesn't duke to another wolf duke, and very unlikely dukes to a wolf hunter.

Now the catch here is Martin, we know he is a duke.

If Autumn is a hunter, but Martin believes he is a duke, Martin dukes to vaimes and we still get information, although less helpful based on current beliefs. This also removes the known hunter that the wolves can duke to later.

There is the potential for one or more dukes to get burned today. I dont see this as a bad thing, if we save up all these dukes for later down the road, we are going to have next to no control over the late game lynching.

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 12:43 PM

If Martin is village, he is finding himself in a bad spot today, so he doesn't use his duke and lets this play out and potentially be sacrificed.

If Martin is a wolf, he dukes to vaimes, or someone else to attempt to enact the tie breaker mechanic.

If Autumn and Martin are wolves.. we probably only see one duke today and end up with a duke to vaimes or a gamble duke to an unknown.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 12:49 PM

I agree with Narc re: Autumn wanting to pull the attention off the font/Vaimes/MartinD trio. It was too early with too much info to still ferret out. I'm also pretty sure I don't want a vote directly on MartinD. If he's wolf, which I think is possible, I don't want him choosing who to duke.

unvote MartinD
vote Autumn

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 12:51 PM

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 12:53 PM

You don't have to be the lynch leader to use the duke ability. Martin can use it today if he feels the need.

Crap. Right. I'll get it.

Raven

04-22-2015, 12:56 PM

I've seen wolf Autumn post villager-helpful comments. This could mean that all three are village and wolf-Autumn is expecting a Martin lynch and is laying the groundwork for a "told you so! Let's all vote cheeki now" day three. Except more-subtle like. Dunno. Maybe it means font and Martin are wolves and he wants to buy time for them.

I got a similar impression from Autumn yesterday. Everyone was looking at the Martin/font/Vaimes trio, and he seemed to be targeting elsewhere as if to clear himself if they came up village.

timmae

04-22-2015, 01:11 PM

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 01:16 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #587)

Autumn (3)-- Shoveler (572), Narcizo (580), cheekimonk (584)
MartinD (2)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500)
cheekimonk (2)-- Autumn (465), MartinD (579)
MrBug708 (1)-- Grover (577)

Yet to Vote: Raven, The Jackal, Vaimes, britrock88, MrBug708

Unable to Vote: fontisian

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 01:22 PM

vote MrBug

Very silent today. Maybe this will get him to talk? Just curious where he's been all this time. Did he say he would be gone most of today? I know this vote accomplishes little right now, but we have little go off of with MrBug.

I haven't played with mrbug before... is he usually a low volume poster? I am not sure how we resolve this with wanting a possible duke to martin. If he's never around then we waste that opportunity. But if he isn't helping us track down evil then we are also hurt. Thoughts?

I'm a teacher and I didn't check the deadline times so once morning hits. We are in the midst of state testing right now so it's hard to post during school hours.

yesterday was a bad day, if you check the food allergy thread on the other board so I was pretty out of it

I don't have much to add today as I'm clearly over my head with some great players. I'm usually low volume on the first few days so if that's a reason to vote for me, so be it

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 01:25 PM

Question for those that are voting autumn... I felt he was a little off in some of his vote strategy reviews and the fact that he forgot that font was not allowed to be active today. Slight pings there.

Are you guys reading him as evil? I am still on martin and think that there are more questions there but I like that we are looking at other avenues. I just don't know if autumn is it and want to hear others' thoughts. I am open for discussion here.

Can you expand on this thinking? This is exactly why autumn has my vote right now, very vague unhelpful comments. If he flips wolf I would probably look at you tomorrow.

Grover

04-22-2015, 01:27 PM

I'm a teacher and I didn't check the deadline times so once morning hits. We are in the midst of state testing right now so it's hard to post during school hours.

yesterday was a bad day, if you check the food allergy thread on the other board so I was pretty out of it

I don't have much to add today as I'm clearly over my head with some great players. I'm usually low volume on the first few days so if that's a reason to vote for me, so be it

Saw that thread and never put 2+2 together with this game.

To be fair, I believe you're a villager. Was just trying to get you to talk.

unvote MrBug

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 01:32 PM

Heading out to lunch. Be back in an hour.

timmae

04-22-2015, 01:34 PM

Can you expand on this thinking? This is exactly why autumn has my vote right now, very vague unhelpful comments. If he flips wolf I would probably look at you tomorrow.

I am voting martin right now because I do not see why he would protect font unless if there is a connection there of some sort. It seems like there must be more to it than random chance. I am reading more evil there than with autumn. My guess is that autumn presents a better strategy long term (level 2 thinking) which is why I asked the question.

Raven

04-22-2015, 01:35 PM

Deadline ticking and still confused as hell...

vote MartinD

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 01:40 PM

Saw that thread and never put 2+2 together with this game.

To be fair, I believe you're a villager. Was just trying to get you to talk.

unvote MrBug

I'm on cell phone and bad reception until 4ish pst. I'll vote here soon

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 01:50 PM

Question for those that are voting autumn... I felt he was a little off in some of his vote strategy reviews and the fact that he forgot that font was not allowed to be active today. Slight pings there.

Are you guys reading him as evil? I am still on martin and think that there are more questions there but I like that we are looking at other avenues. I just don't know if autumn is it and want to hear others' thoughts. I am open for discussion here.

I'm reading him as slightly less than nuetral, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that. If it was my sole responsibility to pick a lynch candidate then I'd probably go for Martin but I don't want a runaway or a two-horse race of cheeki-Martin and Autumn was the only one I'm getting bad vibes from.

Grover

04-22-2015, 01:52 PM

vote Autumn

I've had similar feelings as Narc's, especially when it comes to the one-horse race. I don't want a runaway on Martin. I'm sticking here through the deadline.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 01:55 PM

I do get the feeling that there is a wolf here somewhere but I am starting to feel less confidence in cheeki. He seems to be attaching himself to any bandwagon that gets rolling. I seem to remember him doing that as villager in another game though. I'm wishing Jackal/Britrock would show up starting to fear a flustered cluck near deadline.

Grover

04-22-2015, 01:57 PM

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 02:06 PM

I don't know if it helps or hurts, but before I step into a meeting I'm vanilla village duke - in case I end up near the noose.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:12 PM

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:12 PM

I'm reeeeally dubious of Shoveler advancing the idea that a Duke should knowingly Duke another another Duke to take both out. What would a wolf love more than a double lynch?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:13 PM

Going to update the tally for the new page...

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:14 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #604)

Autumn (4)-- Shoveler (572), Narcizo (580), cheekimonk (584), Grover (598)
MartinD (3)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595)
cheekimonk (2)-- Autumn (465), MartinD (579)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes, britrock88, MrBug708

Unable to Vote: fontisian

Grover

04-22-2015, 02:16 PM

I'm reeeeally dubious of Shoveler advancing the idea that a Duke should knowingly Duke another another Duke to take both out. What would a wolf love more than a double lynch?

A triple lynch?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:18 PM

So the advantages to lynching Martin...
- if he doesn't duke, we find out his alignment
- if he dukes to Vaimes, we find out Vaimes's alignment
- if he dukes to Font, we find out Font's alignment and possibly Martin's as well (for duking to a duke)
- if he dukes elsewhere, we get 1 or 2 reveals

All but the last guarantee that we learn something about toDay's hunter attack.

OTOH, Autumn and cheekimonk are candidates based on reads. That's fine and well.

For toDay's lynch, it's a question of which philosophical approach to take--to lynch based on tone, or to force a little knowledge into our hand about an in-game event that we've spend the better part of the Day thinking about.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:22 PM

I'm leaning this way...

vote MartinD

That said, I've been misunderstanding things all day, so someone feel free to disabuse me of this vote if necessary.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:25 PM

You guys have me in a bind, I can't really move to Martin to self-save, because Martin will just move to me and it will be a wash.

I think it's a bit much to push me simply because I want us to talk about other things than the Vaimes hunting incident. I feel like everyone has experienced an instance like this where the village goes in circle over one thing that they don't have enough information yet to resolve.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:27 PM

I think we eventually find information with further lynches and deaths that sheds light on MartinD, etc. This is for instance why I always urge going with completely new candidates day two to maximize our eventual info. I think Cheeki is a good candidate for having pinged JAG. I think I find a lot of wolves react panicked when someone like JAG points at them.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 02:31 PM

I think it's a bit much to push me simply because I want us to talk about other things than the Vaimes hunting incident. I feel like everyone has experienced an instance like this where the village goes in circle over one thing that they don't have enough information yet to resolve.

Fair.

unvote Autumn
vote MartinD

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:36 PM

I'm trying to decide what has been pinging me about Autumn. This is what I've come up with.

The first conclusion I draw when Jag is night-killed is that there is a vet in the wolves. Not that its some sort of plan to cover for cheeki. Feels like a reach to me.

I don't feel like Autumn thinks I post this as a wolf. Maybe he's thinking out loud as well. But his thinking out loud seems to have a purpose ( casting suspicion my way) while mine was expressing frustration at the fact that I didn't like any of the candidates but didn't feel able to move the vote.

I've seen wolf Autumn post villager-helpful comments. This could mean that all three are village and wolf-Autumn is expecting a Martin lynch and is laying the groundwork for a "told you so! Let's all vote cheeki now" day three. Except more-subtle like. Dunno. Maybe it means font and Martin are wolves and he wants to buy time for them.

Not much to hang one's hat on. I know that I can be guilty of misreading village Autumn as suspicious. But I agree that we need candidates so I'm going this way for now

vote Autumn

Thanks for posting your reasoning Narc. I can't really answer Shoveler thinking I'm "extra shady" but I can address these.

I feel at this stage the new guys are fairly aware of a villager like JAG, and I don't think that makes me think it has to be a vet team--more so the case the opposite that a kill of a newer player would make me think it's a newbie team. I can definitely say I would never kill JAG day one these days because I've said so often in game that hes' my number one target, that doing so would be paining a target on my back. Take it with a grain of salt, I'm sure, but I would always wait a few days to kill him these days.

I still stand that your post pinged me--it's a typical wolf move to want to give a lot of analysis without actually pointing a finger at anyone. I definitely am being more open about posting my suspicion this game than I sometimes would be, but I'm trying to do it in a direct fashion, not the sort of hinting that I think wolves typically do.

I'm not trying to lay any groundwork, just worried that all we're talking about is those three, and if none of them are wolves we're just letting the wolves take a day off.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 02:36 PM

Back. Reviewing posts and putting up a vote count.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:39 PM

I will move to Martin for self-preservation, but don't want to move yet and give other voters only one option, especially when it's my second option.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:42 PM

I will move to Martin for self-preservation, but don't want to move yet and give other voters only one option, especially when it's my second option.

I'm intrigued that you've held off on switching for this long, though for the time being I can accept your explanations for it at face value.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:43 PM

We have ~half of us around at the deadline from the looks of things, so I don't know how much shaking up there could really be.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:44 PM

I'm intrigued that you've held off on switching for this long, though for the time being I can accept your explanations for it at face value.

I just got back whenever my more recent post was, and catching up. There was no point until cheeki switched, because Martin could just switch and put me back in the lead. And really I'd rather vote Cheeki, I'm not very sold on the Martin vote.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:45 PM

We have ~half of us around at the deadline from the looks of things, so I don't know how much shaking up there could really be.

Looked like there were a bunch of outstanding votes. But maybe people aren't around today.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 02:46 PM

I wanted to give Autumn room to maneuver so she's not boxed in. I was in that position last game on D1...not a fan.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 02:46 PM

Trying to quickly catch up. What is the speed dating version of the case against Autumn?

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:46 PM

<b>unvote cheekimonk
vote martinD</b>

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:47 PM

Trying to quickly catch up. What is the speed dating version of the case against Autumn?

Funny, smart, a born romantic.

timmae

04-22-2015, 02:48 PM

I am ok with my vote on martin at this point. Worst case is we will know more about the action early today. Font is back after dawn to provide additional insight.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 02:48 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #624)

MartinD (6)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621)
Autumn (3)-- Shoveler (572), Narcizo (580), Grover (598)
cheekimonk (1)-- MartinD (579)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes, britrock88, MrBug708

Unable to Vote: fontisian

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 02:49 PM

Is brit's vote tally correct, up to there?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:50 PM

Are we more interested in Martin or in Martin's duking (to Vaimes, I presume) as the result of this lynch?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:50 PM

Dola--because if it's the duking, I'm worried that he's not around.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 02:50 PM

Is brit's vote tally correct, up to there?

Someone can check, but I believe the tally I just put up is correct (and it agreed with brit's tally at the time I passed his tally post).

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 02:51 PM

vote - Autumn

Enough suspicion on him at this point to make me wary of him

timmae

04-22-2015, 02:51 PM

Trying to quickly catch up. What is the speed dating version of the case against Autumn?

He pushed the team to look other than font/vaimes/martin. Pushed about the jag/cheeki vote yesterday. I read him as pingy, shoveler thought there may be more to it.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:51 PM

I'm leaning this way...

vote MartinD

That said, I've been misunderstanding things all day, so someone feel free to disabuse me of this vote if necessary.

Chief, you missed this one. :)

MartinD

04-22-2015, 02:53 PM

UNVOTE CHEEKIMONK
VOTE AUTUMN

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:54 PM

Just trying to save my own skin here, but the argument on Martin is htat he used a medic power on someone without any ability to know their allegiance or faction. The argument on me is that I wanted to talk about other vote candidates today, and think JAG may have been killed for looking hard at Cheek. One seems stronger than the other.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 02:54 PM

I don't completely disagree with Autumn. If we made this a two horse race between someone that we had a question about yesterday and this mess today we could maybe learn a little more from today's lynch. But overall, making it a two (or three) horse race isn't a bad thing; more information is always good.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:55 PM

I worry about shenanigans, we don't know what happens with a tie.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:55 PM

But a cultist would presumably love the chaos.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 02:56 PM

unvote Autumn
Vote Martin

Brit's post makes sense. I don't see why villager-Martin protects someone.

Raven

04-22-2015, 02:57 PM

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 02:57 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #634)

MartinD (6)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621)
Autumn (5)-- Shoveler (572), Narcizo (580), Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes

Unable to Vote: fontisian

Autumn

04-22-2015, 02:57 PM

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

He's already used his ability, it was a one-shot. Which is why it's wild to just use it willy nilly.

timmae

04-22-2015, 02:58 PM

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

One time use, right?

MartinD

04-22-2015, 02:58 PM

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

Not relevant - the Medic power was a one-shot deal, and that one shot has been used.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:58 PM

If we lose Martin, and he is village, we lose our Medic as well, though he'd be a good target for a wolf NK.

Medic's a one-time use, though...

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 02:58 PM

Unvote Autumn
Vote Martin

britrock88

04-22-2015, 02:59 PM

Not relevant - the Medic power was a one-shot deal, and that one shot has been used.

Are you duking???

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 02:59 PM

Are we more interested in Martin or in Martin's duking (to Vaimes, I presume) as the result of this lynch?

Definitely Martin. If he dukes to Vaimes thats pretty damned shady in my opinion.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 02:59 PM

Day Two Vote Tally (as of Post #647)

MartinD (8)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3)-- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes

Unable to Vote: fontisian

britrock88

04-22-2015, 03:00 PM

Definitely Martin. If he dukes to Vaimes thats pretty damned shady in my opinion.

I think we're looking at the same situation and drawing opposite conclusions...

Vaimes

04-22-2015, 03:01 PM

Uh.

Today was one of those 'I put off a ton of work and it finally caught up to me' days. So. If I'm duked, oh well. But if not, I will actually be able to focus on this game because the rest of the week is Not Busy.

Also fonti will be able to talk again and I guess I'm sorry if she's town.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:02 PM

DEADLINE

Autumn

04-22-2015, 03:02 PM

Phew, gotta go do yard work, will check on the result in a few.

Narcizo

04-22-2015, 03:02 PM

Definitely Martin. If he dukes to Vaimes thats pretty damned shady in my opinion.

Unless Vaimes is a baddy.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:03 PM

Final tally going.

Lots of stuff going on here, so give me a sec.

Vaimes

04-22-2015, 03:04 PM

I'm not a baddy. Just an irresponsible towny. ,_,

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:06 PM

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:24 PM

Mass confusion reigns in the village in the aftermath of Vaimes shooting fontisian.

In normal society, the cops would be called and Vaimes would go to prison. MartinD, the courageous medic who saved fontisian's life, would be lauded.

But things are different deep in the Bayou.

Here, Vaimes isn't targeted at all. He is quiet and doesn't participate much. No one goes over to him. The Hunters seem to feel it will work itself out. The Dukes are maybe too afraid of a guy willing to shoot his gun.

And who draws suspicion? MartinD, the medic. He stands flabbergasted at the reactions of the village, watching as it appears he will be punished for saving a life. There is some discussion on cheekimonk, and then on Autumn.

But in the end, it all comes back to MartinD.

"We can't trust you!" the village cries at MartinD, and they make to grab him.

"But wait!" he cries. "You can trust me! Think what I have done! I was in the Army. I served in Desert Storm. I could never take another's life. I was a medic. I am sworn to heal, even now, long after my service has ended!"

"You all know who you need to go after--the man with the gun. Vaimes! Vaimes is the one who shot at fontisian. He shot to kill. He has given little reason for this. He could shoot any of you at any point! Think about what you all are doing!!"

MartinD's impassioned pleas immediately appeal to the Dukes, and softens the hardened hearts of the Hunters.

He is right... they think. Vaimes is the one who shot fontisian. And, here, we believe in good ole Southern justice.

With a sudden swell of mob mentality, the village falls upon Vaimes. He is helpless, rooted to the spot. The crowd gathers around him and machetes start to fly. His screams are mercifully short.

MARTIND saved himself by Duking to VAIMES!!

VAIMES was a Hunter and a regular Villager with no roles.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:27 PM

Processing night results

Raven

04-22-2015, 03:31 PM

So a Hunter should shoot MartinD ASAP?

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 03:47 PM

The sun rises on the tense village of Rollette, where few of the residents or visitors slept soundly that night.

You all awake with fear in your hearts. What will you find when you walk out into the open today? Who died last night.

You all wander out, and look at each other suspiciously. You start to note who is there, silently counting who all is left.

Suddenly, a door to a shack crashes open! You all whirl to the noise, expecting the worst. Two Dukes faint in surprise. The Hunters all raise their guns.

"Jeez!" the figure at the door exclaims. "Put yer guns down! It's just me!"

Fontisian, bedraggled and weary, but apparently well on the health, is back on her feet.

With a sudden realization, you all see that no one died last night at all.

Could it be over?

NIGHT TWO has ended, and DAY THREE has begun. Hunters may commence firing.

Fontisian is healthy again and is able to post in the thread and take any normal actions available to her.

DEADLINE FOR DAY THREE IS 4 P.M EST/1 P.M. PDT THURSDAY.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 03:51 PM

I am going to have words with Vaimes after this game about general idiocy, shooting someone without warning or a case, and ignoring blatant hunter claims.

You all are the bigger problem here. There is no way in hell Martin D is scum if I am town, and there was also almost no way Vaimes was scum. Every single person who tried to get them lynched while I couldn’t speak up to defend them instead of waiting a single Day to attack me is on my shooting list.

I am now going to try to confirm myself as town by shooting either scum or a hunter. Once that is determined, you people will never, ever lynch MartinD and will treat him as confirmed town.

Since there was no kill, we can assume that the bodyguard either got a protect in or the cultist was recruited. Since the bodyguard can protect themselves, I wouldn't mind seeing them claim and possible clear their target. I would, however, highly suggest waiting on claiming in case the seer has a guilty or several innocent checks and decides to claim toDay.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 03:52 PM

The question now is, was there a block or a conversion?

fontisian

04-22-2015, 03:54 PM

I'm actually betting block is more likely, as the cultist wants to be lynched or shot over the rest of the scumteam.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 03:54 PM

Right. I'm looking to shoot in this list toDay:
 EagleFan
Autumn
Timmae
Shoveler
Grover

Any comments, suggestions or analysis on those people would be appreciated.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 03:58 PM

The question now is, was there a block or a conversion?

There was a block, as I was the intended target of the night kill.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:00 PM

You're informed of that?

MartinD

04-22-2015, 04:02 PM

You're informed of that?

Yes.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:04 PM

What we know:

Vaimes was good. Suspected with most of the possible scenarios ending up that way.

MartinD and font, both unknown still.

No kill last night, block or conversion. If the BG is told that a block was successful that would be good information to have so we can start a trusted list (though it wouldn't rule out cultist if the answer to the below question is yes, just that the person wasn't at least a member of the original wolves).

If conversion, we really have no idea (does a BG block also block a conversion?).

Why is Autumn high on font's list? She says to go after people looking to lynch Martin. She is speaking out of both sides of her mouth with this one.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:06 PM

I suspect Autumn's the one scum that decided to stay off the lynch.

Your reasons are bull and ultimately irrelevant. I am going to confirm myself or kill myself by shooting toDay. You want scum? Look elsewhere.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:09 PM

Barring counter reveals that would make MartinD good and with no knowledge of font's alignment. font is still an unknown.

With that said I think we have more information to use for the day one voting now.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:10 PM

Chief: Are people informed when they are shot and survive?

EF: If your goal is to convince me not to shoot you, you're doing a poor job of it.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:11 PM

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:12 PM

Chief: Are people informed when they are shot and survive?

EF: If your goal is to convince me not to shoot you, you're doing a poor job of it.

My goal may be to never play in a game that you are in again. Every game you have an attitude with people just because they dare to have a different opinion that you. It is getting old.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:12 PM

You are a pieve of work, that is for sure.

Civility... look it up.
I got shot at, silenced, and then had to watch scum lead a lynch on confirmed town, who then duked it to my other confirmed town. Why would I possibly be irritated?

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 04:13 PM

Chief: Are people informed when they are shot and survive?

EF: If your goal is to convince me not to shoot you, you're doing a poor job of it.

No one will get shot and not know it.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:13 PM

I don't try to make time for the game just to deal with that. If I want arrogant attitudes I will schedule more meetings at work...

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 04:15 PM

Guys, calm down.

WW can be a very personal game. Just remember we're here to enjoy ourselves.

Not taking sides, just saying let's not have this devolve into an argument about something other than the game itself (arguing in-game stuff is of course perfectly acceptable).

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:17 PM

No one will get shot and not know it.

Even if it is a quiet bullet?

britrock88

04-22-2015, 04:18 PM

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8)-- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3)-- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

Yet to Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes

Unable to Vote: fontisian

Font, I agree that you'll find some scum among the Martin voters, but that's 8 of the 14 of us. The odds are incredibly low that there wouldn't be scum there!

Your list, meanwhile, mentions some of the 8 specifically. Have you explained your suspicions of them previously? If not, could you do that now?

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 04:18 PM

Even if it is a quiet bullet?

Maybe I'll add one in for the next time, but this game here has no quiet bullets. ;)

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 04:19 PM

I suspect my boss would like me to do some work, so I am stepping out for a bit.

I'll check in occasionally to see if any of you hotheads decide to take potshots at each other. ;)

MartinD

04-22-2015, 04:20 PM

I got shot at, silenced, and then had to watch scum lead a lynch on confirmed town, who then duked it to my other confirmed town. Why would I possibly be irritated?

At what point were Vaimes and I confirmed as town/village? (That is, before the Day 2 lynch.) There may be evidence pointing one way or the other, but nothing that I can see that would provide certainty.

I know what side I am on, and my posts/actions so far may give an indication to the other players, but there's nothing out there in the thread so far that definitively states that I'm on a particular side.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 04:20 PM

There was a block, as I was the intended target of the night kill.

That is very surprising to me, that you would be informed of that. It's even unusual for the bodyguard to be informed, I don't know that I've ever heard of the victim being informed. I'm also not sure why the wolves would target you, or why the bodyguard would protect you. You were the lead vote getter and very well could have been dead by night fall.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:21 PM

No one will get shot and not know it.
Thank you.

I would highly recommend the bodyguard not claim in that case, unless they are under lynch pressure or Martin is lying.

Martin: Can you clarify that you were not protected by an item?

MartinD was probably shot for one of two reasons:
1. Scum thought he was some sort of power role. This could have come from confusion about his Medic claim.
2. Scum thought he would become confirmed town. This points to Autumn as potential scum.

EF: You are more than smart enough to realize that Martin D becomes confirmed town once I flip town. Why, then, did you contribute to a lynch on MartinD when you could have waited one Day and lynched me?

The conclusion I'm coming to is that scum wanted to lynch Martin, then me, then Vaimes, or Martin, then Vaimes, then me. The fact that only Autumn and Narc pointed this out is insane.

timmae

04-22-2015, 04:23 PM

Piecing this all together in my mind yet... If font, vaimes and martin are all good that was one messed up play by vaimes that basically cost us a day.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:24 PM

At what point were Vaimes and I confirmed as town/village? (That is, before the Day 2 lynch.) There may be evidence pointing one way or the other, but nothing that I can see that would provide certainty.

I know what side I am on, and my posts/actions so far may give an indication to the other players, but there's nothing out there in the thread so far that definitively states that I'm on a particular side.
Both of you are confirmed town with the knowledge that I am town.

There is no way Vaimes takes a shot as scum when I am blatantly hinting hunter, especially when he has a full scumteam to pick up on those hints and warn him against it. In addition, he was behaviorally town.

You, as scum, have no reason to have a medic save on me over one of your scummates, and are therefore town.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:25 PM

Piecing this all together in my mind yet... If font, vaimes and martin are all good that was one messed up play by vaimes that basically cost us a day.
It could have been a decent thing, giving us two confirmed town, if anyone bothered to think it through and vote elsewhere.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 04:26 PM

No way the bodyguard should claim, whether they got a block or not. They can let us know later, it's too early in the game for that.

It's of course very possible that the cultist got hit, probably more likely than the bg picking the right target. But if the hit wasn't really on Martin I can't imagine why he would pretend it was, that would give us a confirmed wolf if he was lying. However, I also find it hard to believe the wolves put in a kill on the lead vote getter. I suppose it might have been a conditional, but what would they have to gain from flipping Martin villager?

The Jackal

04-22-2015, 04:27 PM

Very sorry guys, got super busy at work and it was completely unexpected. It looks like I'm still alive so I'll catch up as soon as I can

Autumn

04-22-2015, 04:27 PM

It could have been a decent thing, giving us two confirmed town, if anyone bothered to think it through and vote elsewhere.

I understand your frustration Font, but you're coming across as very disparaging of basically everybody else playing this game.

timmae

04-22-2015, 04:30 PM

It could have been a decent thing, giving us two confirmed town, if anyone bothered to think it through and vote elsewhere.

I get what you are saying now.. pieced together with his martyr claim last game it is 2 crazy ass plays but they both make sense in that light.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 04:31 PM

Martin: Can you clarify that you were not protected by an item?

The message that I received strongly implied that it was a bodyguard block, not item-based protection. I do not hold any items.

MartinD was probably shot for one of two reasons:
1. Scum thought he was some sort of power role. This could have come from confusion about his Medic claim.
2. Scum thought he would become confirmed town. This points to Autumn as potential scum.

The most obvious reason for me being targeted (in my mind) is that the wolves thought that I was the cultist, and wanted to convert me. (If that was the thinking, they were wrong - I'm now a basic vanilla villager, having used my Medic and Duke one-off powers.)

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 04:32 PM

Chief: Are people informed when they are shot and survive?

EF: If your goal is to convince me not to shoot you, you're doing a poor job of it.

Ok I hate to point this out the obvious, but font asked chief about being shot, which to me implies when a hunter shoots them. She did not ask about whether they are informed of a night kill attempt.

Maybe they are one in the same, but I'm concerned that they are not.

britrock88

04-22-2015, 04:33 PM

That is very surprising to me, that you would be informed of that. It's even unusual for the bodyguard to be informed, I don't know that I've ever heard of the victim being informed. I'm also not sure why the wolves would target you, or why the bodyguard would protect you. You were the lead vote getter and very well could have been dead by night fall.

Agreed, on all counts.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:34 PM

The message that I received strongly implied that it was a bodyguard block, not item-based protection. I do not hold any items.

The most obvious reason for me being targeted (in my mind) is that the wolves thought that I was the cultist, and wanted to convert me. (If that was the thinking, they were wrong - I'm now a basic vanilla villager, having used my Medic and Duke one-off powers.)
I can't imagine that any wolves actually thought you were the cultist when you had a medic save on a villager instead of them.

Ok, the Bodyguard should counterclaim if they did not protect Martin last Night. Otherwise, we can assume he was the shot and is doubly confirmed.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 04:38 PM

The most obvious reason for me being targeted (in my mind) is that the wolves thought that I was the cultist, and wanted to convert me. (If that was the thinking, they were wrong - I'm now a basic vanilla villager, having used my Medic and Duke one-off powers.)

Checking back on the ruleset - there's no way that I can be the cultist, as I have used the Duke power. From Post 3:

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.
(my emphasis)

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:41 PM

Thank you.

I would highly recommend the bodyguard not claim in that case, unless they are under lynch pressure or Martin is lying.

Martin: Can you clarify that you were not protected by an item?

MartinD was probably shot for one of two reasons:
1. Scum thought he was some sort of power role. This could have come from confusion about his Medic claim.
2. Scum thought he would become confirmed town. This points to Autumn as potential scum.

EF: You are more than smart enough to realize that Martin D becomes confirmed town once I flip town. Why, then, did you contribute to a lynch on MartinD when you could have waited one Day and lynched me?

The conclusion I'm coming to is that scum wanted to lynch Martin, then me, then Vaimes, or Martin, then Vaimes, then me. The fact that only Autumn and Narc pointed this out is insane.

If you read you will see that I wanted to try to get a vote that meant something. I certainly didn't want an all Martin vote. Information is what I wanted. If you and Martin are wolves and we looked elsewhere it means we are now two days worth of potential bad lynches and night kills behind and would still be in the same position as before today's lynch. Having 3 completely unknowns.

If I am a wolf, Martin is definitely not the target. Keep the confusion between the two of you still out there.

We have the following possibilities:

1) MartinD is not the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he was.
2) MartinD is the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he blocked the attack.
3) MartinD is a wolf and is trying to out the real bodyguard (maybe because they were blocked last night).

Of the three of you, finding out either MartinD or you were the best options (as Vaimes comes up good in more of the scenarios that I looked through that made sense).

If MartinD is a wolf, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is the cultist, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is a villager, we are still unknown about you.

If we wait and find out your alliance:
If you are a wolf, we are unknown about MartinD, could be a bad luck village play.
If you are a villager, we know that MartinD is a villager (or close to certain).
If you are a cultist, we are unknown about MartinD.

So: 2 of the 3 MartinD results give us a certain outcome. Only 1 of the 3 results for you give us a certain outcome.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 04:42 PM

Okay, I have to get back to work. Will check back in later.

MartinD

04-22-2015, 04:43 PM

Both of you are confirmed town with the knowledge that I am town.

There is no way Vaimes takes a shot as scum when I am blatantly hinting hunter, especially when he has a full scumteam to pick up on those hints and warn him against it. In addition, he was behaviorally town.

You, as scum, have no reason to have a medic save on me over one of your scummates, and are therefore town.

That reasoning, of course, relies on a fact that only you know (if you're town/village or scum/wolf). Take that away, and there are another couple of potential scenarios - either we're both wolves (so I have an obvious incentive to target you for potential Medic attention), or I (as a villager) have managed to pick a wolf at random when deciding where to Medic-target.

TL;DR version - no matter how definite you sound about being a villager, I think that it's possible that you could be a wolf.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 04:44 PM

Maybe later, after I eat, I'll have the blood sugar to figure this out, but right now I am completely baffled as to why the wolves would target Martin. As pointed out, once he duked he couldn't possibly be the Cultist. The only scenario that makes any sense there is if they also had a duke order in, so that if he wasn't a real duke, they would have saved him, then converted him. All of that only makes sense if Font was a wolf.

So if they didn't think he was Cultist, why would they kill him? They figured he would Duke, or survive in some other way. Did they think his duke would somehow clear him? If so, why not wait and see and then kill him later? It doesn't make sense, unless they thought he was a special, but I'm not sure what would make them think that.

So far I think the best option offered is that they misunderstood the Medic role, thinking it was basically a bodyguard.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:48 PM

If you read you will see that I wanted to try to get a vote that meant something. I certainly didn't want an all Martin vote. Information is what I wanted. If you and Martin are wolves and we looked elsewhere it means we are now two days worth of potential bad lynches and night kills behind and would still be in the same position as before today's lynch. Having 3 completely unknowns.

If I am a wolf, Martin is definitely not the target. Keep the confusion between the two of you still out there.

We have the following possibilities:

1) MartinD is not the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he was.
2) MartinD is the bodyguard and was targeted and protected and told that he blocked the attack.
3) MartinD is a wolf and is trying to out the real bodyguard (maybe because they were blocked last night).

Of the three of you, finding out either MartinD or you were the best options (as Vaimes comes up good in more of the scenarios that I looked through that made sense).

If MartinD is a wolf, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is the cultist, we can be near certain that you are. If MartinD is a villager, we are still unknown about you.

If we wait and find out your alliance:
If you are a wolf, we are unknown about MartinD, could be a bad luck village play.
If you are a villager, we know that MartinD is a villager (or close to certain).
If you are a cultist, we are unknown about MartinD.

So: 2 of the 3 MartinD results give us a certain outcome. Only 1 of the 3 results for you give us a certain outcome.
For one, if I'm a cultist, you know MartinD is town, as he would probably think I'm a villager.

Your strategy is to lynch Martin, have him flip town and learn nothing, then lynch me, and have me flip town and learn nothing.

The smart strategy is to find out that I am town (whether through a lynch, a check, or my own actions), and then use that to clear Vaimes and Martin, giving us a solid, non-pr townblock.

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 04:52 PM

Hypothetical situation here.. lets say someone had a limited supply of ammo, and they were about to take a shot between two question marks. Which question mark yields the best information?

fontisian

04-22-2015, 04:56 PM

Hypothetical situation here.. lets say someone had a limited supply of ammo, and they were about to take a shot between two question marks. Which question mark yields the best information?
Are you thinking of shooting?

I would ask you to wait until toMorrow so I can take a shot and see if I can resolve the question of my alignment.

Grover

04-22-2015, 05:19 PM

I am convinced that there's no way Martin is a wolf or the cultist. There's no other way around it.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 05:21 PM

I suppose if Martin was a wolf, and felt he was done for, it could be a play to find out the bodyguard, but that seems a bit farfetched.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 05:21 PM

Are you thinking of shooting?

I would ask you to wait until toMorrow so I can take a shot and see if I can resolve the question of my alignment.

How would that resolve anything? You mean you're that hopeful that you'll hit a wolf?

fontisian

04-22-2015, 05:26 PM

I mean, the odds of me hitting town and not hitting a hunter are pretty low.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 05:31 PM

Once again ignoring the Font/Vaimes/MartinD trinity for a moment to consider other players ... I actually feel better about Narc despite him coming after me tomorrow, that looked like the Narc I know and love. Still unsure about cheeki but he doesn't feel like a must lynch to me, just on my question mark list. EagleFan has me flipflopping my read of him, I'm not sure what I think of him right now. Jackal had a question mark for me day one and then wasn't here day two, so I'll be looking at him a lot today. People I feel pretty good about include britrock, shoveler and Grover. Their input has felt legit.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 05:40 PM

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

Shoveler

04-22-2015, 05:42 PM

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

I'm willing to find out.. just need the prior authorization.

EagleFan

04-22-2015, 05:46 PM

I want to hear more this evening when I should be able to read through a bit better. Not sure it does is any good to fish to anything.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 05:53 PM

I'm willing to find out.. just need the prior authorization.
Shoveler, please don't shoot me toDay.

Give me a few hours to pick my target, and I'll shoot them. If, by some weirdness, I'm still alive and not confirmed town, you guys can lynch me.

Do not throw your life away for mine, especially when you're acting this towny.

Also, Martin obviously saved both me and Vaimes. All you have to do is ask Chief to confirm.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 05:56 PM

Autumn, I believe you are the most likely scum on the Zinto wagon, before Jackal and Narc. I am going to shoot you in one hour unless you give me a reason not to.

The Jackal

04-22-2015, 05:58 PM

Martin's suggestion of the kill attempt block is still confusing me, need to digest more.

Chief Rum

04-22-2015, 06:04 PM

Just an FYI, as I see much thoughts on shooting.

Tonight I am working the night shift at my night job. So if someone decides to fire a shot now or in the next few hours, the results will have to wait.

That doesn't mean fire now, in the hopes I can get it done before leaving. I am close to shutting down already to head out.

Just saying why there might not be an immediate GM reaction.

I project to getting out of the night job by 10 p.m. PDT, and home after work out/dinner/etc. at 12 a.m. PDT.

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:25 PM

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

Hunters can't shoot and kill other Hunters without dying, and Dukes can't Duke to other Dukes without dying.

I'm under the impression that they both remained alive because font was not killed by Vaimes shooting

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 06:38 PM

Font, I agree that you'll find some scum among the Martin voters, but that's 8 of the 14 of us. The odds are incredibly low that there wouldn't be scum there!

Your list, meanwhile, mentions some of the 8 specifically. Have you explained your suspicions of them previously? If not, could you do that now?

Martin was a known Duke, correct? With so many mechanics going on in on egame (well, essentially two) it seems like those 8 are Hunters or if Dukes, trying to throw off the scent?

Maybe my thinking is off here though

Grover

04-22-2015, 06:41 PM

I'm under the impression that they both remained alive because font was not killed by Vaimes shooting

I am inclined to agree. If Martin hadn't saved Vaimes, both Vaimes and font would be dead.

Grover

04-22-2015, 06:42 PM

I am inclined to agree. If Martin hadn't saved Vaimes, both Vaimes and font would be dead.

hadn't saved font.

oops.

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:44 PM

So Martin is def not the Cultist, since he duked, and Cultist does not have that ability.

Since the bg is a village role - wolves would not target wolf Martin in hopes that bg would be guarding him.

This means Martin is confirmed village, and isn't lying about being protected last night. Also means Cultist was not converted last night.

Grover

04-22-2015, 06:46 PM

Can a bodyguard protect themselves?

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:48 PM

Can a bodyguard protect themselves?

Yes.

BODYGUARD-- This player has the option to watch over one player per night from an attack from the wolves. He can protect himself. He cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Grover

04-22-2015, 06:49 PM

Yes.

BODYGUARD-- This player has the option to watch over one player per night from an attack from the wolves. He can protect himself. He cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Dur. Thanks. As a noob I should a.) read the rules. Thank you for the info.

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:50 PM

No worries. I had to look it up myself. I figured they couldn't, but I was wrong.

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:51 PM

Seems unlikely he'd be both medic and bg though.

Raven

04-22-2015, 06:53 PM

I think Martin is safe for awhile though. They'd be more inclined to try and find seer/bg/cultist rather than waste a NK on vanilla villager now.

cheekimonk

04-22-2015, 07:48 PM

How does Shoveler's "duke to MartinD because 2 deaths are better than one" advice look in light of D2/N2? I must admit, I guess I'm still a noob but I didn't get the logic to start with.

Grover

04-22-2015, 08:06 PM

Gonna catch up on Gotham and call it a night. See you lot on the morrow.

Also, cheap shill: Going Dutch? The Incredible Tale of Gelre! - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=90223)

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:37 PM

Font, you shooting me is a terrible idea, and not because it's me, or I'm super important. Because it makes zero sense. I can't see any reason why you would even posit such a strategy.

You are suggesting A) it is likely that you will be killed and thus revealed as villager. This makes very little sense because there have been mostly (all?) Hunters killed so far, and so the majority of the game right now is Dukes. So it's actually more likely your kill will work and you'll remain alive and unrevealed. Since you're suggesting confirming your villagerness is the point of this, it seems pointless.

B) You are suggesting it makes sense for one player to pick a player and force them to claim outside of the lynch process. This is a horrible idea. Time is to the benefit of the village, and the wolves want the game to end as fast as possible. We don't want to force extra claims, certainly not just because one player has a hunch or a theory. Adding one or two villager deaths to the lynching cycle just gets the wolves closer to parity.

C) Your reasoning is screwy. You say that you strongly suspect everyone who pushed to lynch Martin or Vaimes. And yet the only person you are pushing, and indeed suggesting that you are going to kill out of turn, is one of the only people who did not do that. I understand that you suspect me as not following along in order to gain credit. Fine, that's next level thinking. But why are you not showering any suspicion on any of the heaps of people who actually did what you claim to be suspicious of? I haven't heard you even mention one of their names. Oh, because none of them were up for a lynch yesterday and so are not easy targets?

You are a very good player, and shrewd, and so I am finding it hard to believe you have missed all of this. If you are a villager, I hope you can see what a poor plan this is.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:39 PM

With that, I will be out until morning. I do hope Font was only probing for responses.

Autumn

04-22-2015, 09:47 PM

Well, here is the other problem with this shenanigan of an idea.

Possible outcomes, for a villager Font:

Font hits a hunter, and both die.
--Font is shown to be village, Font hits a wolf!
--Font is shown to be village, Font kills a villager.

Font hits a duke, and doesn't die.
--Font hits a wolf! Font is good (most likely!)
--Font hits a villager, Font gets lynched (most likely!)

Because there are more dukes than hunters the second set is more likely. Because there are more villagers than wolves, the villager scenarios are more likely (though I'm sure Font thinks her wolfdar is better than random). So most likely scenario is Font kills a villager, we lynch her, and have wasted a day and lost an extra villager. Both of the hit a hunter scenarios result in an extra death. And even in the best case scenario, Font hits a wolf duke, we don't get any vote history or any more data on the wolf after Font makes a case for the player being a wolf.

There's really no shortcuts, you gotta play the game. Villagers should be saving their shots for when a wolf gets nabbed, not wasting them.

fontisian

04-22-2015, 09:58 PM

Autumn:
1. There's a different between townsided kills and scum sided kills. By using a hunter kill from the scummiest hunter every Day we kill 1-2 scummy people who would have likely been lynched anyway. If we take the slow route, scum get to kill their way through a larger ratio of towny and strong players compared to scummy people we can lynch.

2. Timmae, Shoveler and EF all supported the attacks on MartinD and I have attacked them toDay.

3. I have 11 players to pick between. About 3-4 of them are probably hunters, and about 4 are probably scum (counting the cultist). Even with overlap, assume my reads are better than random, I have a very good chance of success.

4. The fact that I'm willing to shoot people without knowing if they're a hunter or not should point towards me being town, just like it points towards Shoveler being town.

5. There's no point in saving shots when only one can be used a Day.

What are your reads?

MrBug708

04-22-2015, 11:07 PM

I cant say I disagree with the reasoning on #5

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 12:26 AM

A lot of flawed logic by font but that seems par for the course. She has yet to show an argument to support her case and just spouts crap. If she is village as she claims and comes after me the wolves will claim another minor victory for the day.

With that said. I feel useless in this game. Other than phone posting because of insomnia I wouldn't have even checked back until sometime late in the day. I really had no desire to log in and deal with the attitude.

Either way, I am out for a while. Narc should be on soon. If I still can't sleep I will check back to see if a conversation is going on. That I will gladly be part of.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:04 AM

If Martin D is a villager and he duked to Vaimes then we deserve to lose. Duking to Vaimes is absolutely the least-villager friendly move he could have made. And then the wolves try to night kill him? Why on earth would they try to kill him? Why would the bodyguard protect him?

Has Font claimed the ammo clip? Otherwise what's up with the threats of shooting people? She's a duke right?

Otherwise I wish you guys would kind of do what I normally do during my day but during the evening. At the moment you're playing with an 8-hour day because there's very little discussion after nightfall.

I say we shoot Font. If she's good then that pretty much clears Martin and we can deal with the ramifications of that. If she's bad then we string up Martin tonight and have a long hard look at Grover tomorrow.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:16 AM

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:18 AM

Oh I see you saw that. I should probably read through the entire thread closely before posting.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:23 AM

I suppose if Martin was a wolf, and felt he was done for, it could be a play to find out the bodyguard, but that seems a bit farfetched.

Why? If Martin is a wolf then he knows he's not going to be around much longer - might as well try to get as much information as possible out of the situation. Font also knows that she's not going to be around much more. However if they're converted the cultist then they want to hold on as long as possible so that they can steam-roller with day-kills and dukes and whittle the village numbers right down.

Sort of like what Martin has already done by duking to Vaimes. I'm surprised Font hasn't berated Martin for that move yet.

fontisian

04-23-2015, 01:25 AM

I'm a hunter, Narc. I thought that was obvious as of yesterday? No one's shooting me because I'm shooting toDay. Why don't you weigh in on who you think I should shoot?

EF: Calling my reasons "flawed" without providing any reasoning yourself is meaningless doubt-casting. You're like the guy who shouts "fallacy" without being able to elaborate on any problems with the argument. Give reads, provide reasons, and don't dismiss arguments just "because."

fontisian

04-23-2015, 01:26 AM

Sort of like what Martin has already done by duking to Vaimes. I'm surprised Font hasn't berated Martin for that move yet.
I did actually. I'm not going to scream at him when he made a great protection decision yesterDay and everyone had horrible ideas for the lynch.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:29 AM

Shoveler, please don't shoot me toDay.

Give me a few hours to pick my target, and I'll shoot them. If, by some weirdness, I'm still alive and not confirmed town, you guys can lynch me.

Do not throw your life away for mine, especially when you're acting this towny.

Also, Martin obviously saved both me and Vaimes. All you have to do is ask Chief to confirm.

This is nonsense. You'll duke the lynch. You're a duke. That's why we should shoot you and not Martin. I don't really understand why you're even trying to argue that you're a hunter. The whole point about Vaimes yesterday was "how did he know it was safe to shoot font"?

How did Martin save Vaimes? By lynching him?

Definitely no need for the bodyguard to reveal. We learn what we need to know by shooting font.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:32 AM

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 01:34 AM

I did actually. I'm not going to scream at him when he made a great protection decision yesterDay and everyone had horrible ideas for the lynch.

Protecting anyone pretty much at random wasn't a great protection decision. It was the first in a line of moves I would designate as anti-village.

fontisian

04-23-2015, 01:57 AM

Narc, why do you find it so hard to believe that I'm a hunter?

fontisian

04-23-2015, 01:58 AM

Pretend I'm telling the truth. I'm about to shoot Autumn. Do you have nothing to say about that?

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 02:19 AM

If you're a villager then I could get on board with an Autumn shooting to bring clarity to yesterday's vote. If you're villager then its pretty certain that Martin is and it will show whether it was villager-village or villager-wolf.

fontisian

04-23-2015, 02:21 AM

Thank you.

fontisian

04-23-2015, 02:25 AM

In case I die here, I have very strong townreads on MartinD and Shoveler, and a weaker townread on Narcizo.

Cheeki, Raven, britrock and MrBug708 are sort of towny.

If Autumn is town, look at The Jackal and Narc for their placement on the Zinto wagon. I'd also take a closer look at Grover, EF and timmae.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 02:50 AM

If you use your Hunter kill on another Hunter, in addition to that player dying, you will also die. The only way to avoid this in a regular Hunter kill is to kill a Duke.

Chief - if a hunter kill on another hunter was blocked by the medic would the shooting hunter die?

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 02:56 AM

If you're village font I strongly suggest you don't send in a kill order before other people get here to discuss this. I'm viewing you shooting anyone as yet more evidence that you're bad. If you've sent the order then you can take it back until Chief gets here.

I don't think you are a villager. I think you may have an ammo clip which will allow you to shoot someone. That's going to put us in a huge hole as we won't be able to lynch you tonight.

Narcizo

04-23-2015, 03:01 AM

Not much more to be done really. I would argue that the body of evidence points overwhelmingly to font/Martin being bad. I'll sort out a voting record during my day. As far as I'm concerned Martin has made two move that greatly damaged the village. Maybe a villager can make one mistake, but if you get two together then it starts not to look like a mistake.