WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387) [Archive] - Page 5

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 09:33 PM

We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 09:40 PM

timmae was briefly tied for the lead on day one but votes off him seem to be because of his availability.

font makes a semi late move onto Zinto but at that point it was village/village/village so that really doesn't tell us anything. Not sure a wolf really cares which one is lynched at that point as there was no obvious save being made.

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 09:48 PM

The wolf kills were JAG, a failed attempt on MartinD (which I am now forced to believe that he knew about it) and Jackal.

Does that tell us anything? All could have been seer hunting. I can see the argument for seer hunting with MartinD as it seems the bodyguard came to that conclusion as well.

I think we have some mistakes by the wolves and some very fortunate events for us. The odds that MartinD just happened to be protecting font on that Vaimes kill attempt made us crazy but it looks like it made them just as crazy. Looks like it was just blind luck. Then the bodyguard protect on MartinD. The good thing is that with anyone knowing they were protected it will let us know if there was a conversion so that won't be a mystery.

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 09:50 PM

Now for timmae being duked to today, that was another very fortunate event. The worst possible wolf for them to lose. Maybe it was just a foretelling of what ill happen to the Blackhawks tonight... ;)

EagleFan

04-23-2015, 10:24 PM

Okay, it's quiet, headache has been building, time to sign off. Will try to get online tomorrow but my morning is booked with meetings (sometimes I really hate my life.. ;) ) but will try to get on at lunch. If I can manage a work from home I will be able to post better at lunch as I have been avoiding using my work computer as things have been real tense since the buyout and it seems everything is being watched (waiting to see someone standing outside the restrooms with a stopwatch when people enter). Just about to hit 10 years at this job, already getting screwed by the buyout as I would have picked up another week of vacation starting this month based on what we used to get but not with the new company, I have 5 more years to wait for that...

Sorry, this post turned into a venting thread.

cheekimonk

04-23-2015, 11:26 PM

We still have cheek and bug (and myself) with the odd votes out on that day.

I posted that I was out in meetings from the late morning til after deadline. I never had a chance to switch it.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 01:50 AM

You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.

I apologise for my overall crap play yesterday. Particularly the part where I suggested that the seer take a shot if we didn't hit a wolf, which is a shockingly ill-thought out suggestion. However the fact remains that this game is starting to cost me sleep and that's my warning sign that I should dial it back.

I think I should be considered a lynch target. I even don't find it too far-fetched to suggest that I'd make up all that stuff about Martin being a wolf yesterday even if I was a wolf. It's an awful lot of work to make just to be proved wrong by the first person who showed up, but hey, its possible. I've been known to put in that kind of effort before.

For what it's worth (little) I find it more likely that Autumn is a wolf than Font. Font is Strider and I'm Frodo, which means that Autumn must be Sauron. At the moment though I think they both might be village. Don't think wolf-Font takes a shot at someone who probably wasn't a power-role when her wolf buddy has just been killed. Yes, it's reckless for a villager to do that but it still seems more villagy to me.

Where are we at? 10 people - 2 Wolves, 1 cultist and 7 villagers. 2 of the villagers are power roles. I tend to agree with Font that the seer should reveal today, if they have any scan result that we don't know. We´ve had a huge amount of luck with the wolves not hitting the power roles but the ranks are narrowing and I don't know if we want to roll the dice on that for one more night if the seer has anything of value to add. I think the wolves will be able to narrow the field right down on the power roles at the moment.

Of course, it's possible that the seer doesn't have any scan results - I've been there, done that as a seer. They might have scanned people who are now dead or had scans fail because of lynching. I guess that's a judgement call in that case. Just bear in mind that there's probably a good chance that the wolves are going to get you. They have a much better chance of picking you out than the bodyguard does because they know who the wolves are and may have an idea about the cultist.

We still get two cleared villagers with a seer and bodyguard reveal. I'm presuming Shoveler isn't one of them as I don't think he'd take the risk of duking if he were. So that's three that are as good as cleared. I'll send an item to Shoveler that might help the seer if he chooses to reveal. So if the seer and bodyguard reveal the BG can protect the seer tonight to give us another scan. Maybe the seer gets brutalled but at least that means we've got another wolf then. Of course, the bodyguard shouldn't reveal until after the seer has.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 01:57 AM

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 02:36 AM

Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 02:53 AM

It's still a gain for the wolves, though, no?

No. The wolves lose a night kill, which they cannot afford with the seer and bodyguard still slive.

I generally agree with font except with the caveat that if the cultist has already been scanned then the wolves get another cunning if they convert him.

I still don't see the gain for wolf-font to take a shot. I guess if she presumes she's getting lynched today anyway she might as well take someone out. But then surely she would target Shoveler (Duke, pretty much cleared) or a potential power role instead of Autumn. I don't think it seems likely Autumn has a power role.

The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 05:00 AM

Day Three

11:21 #799 Cheeki votes fonti (1)
11:38 #806 Autumn votes Fonti (2) / Fonti 2
11:44 #807 Shoveler votes Fonti (3) / Font 3
12:07 #815 Jackal votes Eagle (1)
12:15 #821 Fonti votes Eagle (2) / Font 3, Eagle 2
12:33 #844 Grover votes Eagle (3) / Font, Eagle 3
13:12 #859 Timmae votes Eagle (4) / Eagle 4, Font 3
13:44 #870 Bug votes Eagle (5) / Eagle 5, Font 3
15:15 #885 Narcizo votes Fonti (4) / Eagle 5, Font 4
15:27 #886 Britrock votes Fonti (5) / Eagle, Font 5
15:45 #890 Raven votes Fonti (6) / Font 6, Eagle 5
15:59 #901 Jackal unvotes Eagle, votes Fonti (7) / Font 7, Eagle 4

FINAL Day Three Vote Tally

fontisian (7)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890), The Jackal (901)
EagleFan (4)-- fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)

Yet to Vote: EagleFan

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 05:01 AM

The bit where she claims that she thinks Brit hinted a scan of Autumn but she took the shot to prove it (or whatever), on the other hand, seems bat-shit insane.

My vote is still on font, for now, but just pointing out that we don't lynch people around these parts just for being bat-shit insane.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 06:57 AM

You see Shoveler. What you did is exactly what the villager shouldn't do in these situations.

In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 07:22 AM

I was joking.

Well, not really. It was a bad play. But we deserve a bit of luck I think.

Grover

04-24-2015, 07:22 AM

In a normal game I would totally agree. In this game with all the dukes left I figured coming at them from the side may be the best approach.

But you may be right, maybe that was a bad play. Yesterday it felt like the odds were stacked against us and perhaps I could deliver us a miracle. But with two hunter vets taking terrible shots and then I pulled a wolf I guess I'm the least bad of the bad plays made thus far in this game.

I have zero issue with what you did. You're a good guy in my book right now.

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 07:35 AM

That was out of character for font (generally a very good player), but there was some tension there with Autumn, too, and if nothing else font is emotional. I like my original instinct:

unvote fontisian
vote Narcizo

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 07:57 AM

Ok I've read through the thread and have noticed a couple of things. My trust list is something like:

Shoveler
Raven
EagleFan
MrBug
Cheekimonk
Grover
Britrock

I've left Autumn and font off the list because I don't trust my judgement about either of them. My vote will currently go with Shoveler.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 08:00 AM

As in I will vote for whoever Shoveler votes for.

Grover

04-24-2015, 08:16 AM

So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 08:55 AM

So far... I may have missed something...

britrock88 - Raven (926)
fontisian - Autumn (929), Grover (956)
Narcizo - cheekimonk (1016)

Cheeki went Narc originally on Post 941, but flopped to font on post 971 after the attempted shooting of Autumn. Cheek then flipped back to Narc on post 1016 by saying that font had lost her mind and that was unlike her.

Cheeki is quickly moving up my suspicious list.

Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.

Grover

04-24-2015, 09:07 AM

Well, let me clarify then. It's so out of character and emotional that it muddles the picture on her. I still lean wolf on her, but I do on Narc and nothing's happened to muddy that up.

Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 09:11 AM

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

Grover

04-24-2015, 09:13 AM

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

Wolves. Game ends if we get the two wolves, even if the cultist remains, right?

I'd guess yhsy the wolves would rather spend their time finding the Seer/BG than trying to find the Cultist.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 09:15 AM

Theoretically should we be looking to lynch the cultist if we suspect one or concentrating on wolves?

At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 09:29 AM

Okay. So what is your read on Shoveler with Narc saying he will follow Shoveler's vote?

Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 09:39 AM

Checking in before testing starts. It's the last day of it so I'll be around more

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 09:49 AM

You are one of two possible wolves on the Zinto lynch and you did not claim yesterDay when I said was going to shoot you. Add in that I'm town, Shoveler's town, Raven, Grover and MrBug708 are probably town, the seer can claim and clear themselves and others, and the bodyguard, if necessary, can claim and clear themselves, and we're going to win this. There was no reason not to shoot.

Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?

Raven

04-24-2015, 09:51 AM

Everyone reads Shoveler as town...which would make an excellent reason for a wolf to attach himself to him.

Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 09:57 AM

Agreed.
I think it's out of character for Narc to say I'll vote with Shoveler, as if he trusts Shoveler's intuition over his own. Very sketchy.

Yeah. You haven't played with me much. Its the friday. Or narkle-meltdown day as its known. Except it happened one day earlier this time. Probably because of the early deadline..

Grover

04-24-2015, 10:02 AM

Gonna be out of the office for roughly 3-4 hours. Should be back for deadline

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 10:08 AM

Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1030)

fontisian (2)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: A Plethora

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 10:20 AM

But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 10:24 AM

At this point I would suggest we look at the wolves, and if we suspect who the cultist is the BG should protect that person from a night kill. We cannot afford the conversion.

I'll have some more thoughts later.. I need to run out this morning.

Over the seer???

britrock88

04-24-2015, 10:25 AM

I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.

Raven

04-24-2015, 10:29 AM

But if you want to know what my intuition has told me today

Font is a cultist and britrock and cheeki are wolves as she signaled them by not mentioning them as being probably town.

No! Wait! Autumn is a wolf, font is a villager, Britrock is the cultist. Autumn claims I'm good so I can be village choice of lynch tomorrow, while he argues for a different villager. Britrock emphasized that timmae was out of office on day one.

No! Actually fontisian is the cultist buying trust for wolf-Autumn.

Literally etc. etc.

So let me be the judge of who's intuition is more trustworthy thankyouverymuch.

So what you are saying is you are confused.
Well, we're all in the same boat.

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 10:36 AM

I'm caught up, and things make less sense than they did before. Does the group not think there's something to gain lynching into Font/Autumn? Because I think there is.

I considered that, but at this point it feels like a rabbit hole. Maybe it's fatigue from thinking through all the events around font, but 2 of those involved were town and this kind of stuff is perfect for wolves to lay low while it keeps going deeper (a la timmae).

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 10:36 AM

The duke/hunter mechanics of this game are throwing me for a loop. I'm not certain there is any justification for putting a known hunter on the block. If they are town, they can't duke. If they are a wolf, does the last remaining duke wolf reveal themselves for a save, probably not unless they have items that have already won the game for them.

The seer at this point either has good reads, or wasted reads. We can afford probably one mislynch and the game is over if the wolves have a hunter in reserve and the ammo clip. So I dont think the seer is that important going forward, and just mentioning the idea that the bodyguard should protect the cultist should put doubt into the minds of the wolves over where to go with their night kill if the seer reveals. Will the seer be protected or not?

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.

I dunno, my head is spinning.. need to reread the damn thread.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 10:38 AM

Yeah, I can't shake that feeling. Not yet, anyway.

vote Fontisian

Autumn

04-24-2015, 11:20 AM

I'm worried we still have so many no votes this far along in the day.

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 11:23 AM

Have a few moments to post, barring any meetings that drag me away I should be able to sneak a few other moments throughout the day (working from home; I won't have to worry about being on the work laptop/network).

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 11:32 AM

vote font

I keep coming back to the me versus font thing. From what I see Autumn doesn't seem like a wolf but my reads have been awful all game.

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 11:37 AM

Oh, that last post was not any attempt to hint at being a seer. I am not the seer. (just realized how that was worded and don't want any confusion)

Autumn

04-24-2015, 11:44 AM

Yet to vote: narc, shoveler, font, mrbug

Mr bug is the one I worry about most there (aside from font obviously). It's almost impossible to get a read on him so far.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 11:50 AM

Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1043)

fontisian (4)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041)
britrock88 (1)-- Raven (926)
Narcizo (1)-- cheekimonk (1016)

Yet to Vote: Narcizo, Shoveler, fontisian, MrBug708

Raven

04-24-2015, 12:04 PM

Still not sure if I want to go font/Grover/Bug
or
Narc/Brit/?

so for now I will consolidate
unvote britrock
vote Narcizo

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 12:30 PM

vote brit

fontisian

04-24-2015, 12:50 PM

Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.

The seer needs to claim now so every town Duke can Duke to an actual scum. Please do it.

Vote Autumn

Or, we can with this.

There's something to the fact that the only person voting me who I didn't call as possible scum at the beginning of the Day is Grover.

Raven

04-24-2015, 12:58 PM

Narc, I'm the blank. I can't be the cultist.

This is false.

CULTIST-- You are a villager but you are a wannabe wolf. You win with the wolves, but count towards the village for win conditions. You know the wolves' identities and their Hunter/Duke allegiances. You cannot PM a player like the others, but you can receive PMs. You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team). If you are attacked by the wolves, you will join them.

Actually, that's a really good case for me to vote for you.
You are either The Blank or you are The Cultist, but you are not both.

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 12:59 PM

If the cultist is found by the wolves, I'm guessing we are hosed, but I haven't run the actual scenarios at this point.
.

I can't help but think that font is the cultist. The only thing making me think that she was good was the question of why a wolf would make such an overt play. It would make sense if she was the cultist. I can think of reasons why cultist-font would make that move. The question is whether we should lynch her if she is.

If its 7:2:1 then lynching the cultist should leave us 6:2 if there's an unblocked night kill. ToMorrow a misslynch and night kill would be 4:2. If the wolves daykill and duke or nightkill it would be 2:2. However that would be the absolute worst case scenario. We would have less unknowns and a better handle on the information.

If we work around the cultist and look for a wolf (or if we miss the cultist) if we misslynch then it will be (barring a block) 5:2:1. If the wolves day kill, duke to a hunter and night kill then that gives them the win. They would have to really ride their luck there though. However final days almost always go to the wolves.

My feeling is to lynch font.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 12:59 PM

Sorry but why are bug, grover and raven probably village?
Sorry, missed this.

They're relatively new and the voted next to timmae when a villager was being targeted by the other wagon.

Raven

04-24-2015, 01:00 PM

Actually I should have probably said you are The Blank or you are The Cultist, but having "Blank ability" does not exclude you from being The Cultist.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 01:00 PM

This is false.

Actually, that's a really good case for me to vote for you.
You are either The Blank or you are The Cultist, but you are not both.
Oh, derp.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 01:02 PM

vote brit

I should clarify that I don't have much on anyone so I will be suspicious of anyone who is suspicious of me.

Sorry if it doesn't help

fontisian

04-24-2015, 01:02 PM

^
Bug is town.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 01:08 PM

should the bg put in a conditional protect on font in the event we end up with a duke out of font in the lynch? If font is the cultist, I could see the wolves duking someone even if it was a sacrifice play (1 village, 1 wolf) and then converting the cultist tonight, bringing them back to 2. If we lynch font, we are at 6:2 either way it goes (if she is in fact the cultist).

Just a thought..

Grover

04-24-2015, 01:35 PM

I am willing to bet that font is more likely the cultist than the blank.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 01:50 PM

Vote: Font

I think we vote font on the basis that she may be the cultist. If she is a wolf that's a bonus.

Raven

04-24-2015, 01:52 PM

1. Shoveler-- Duke, Duke Used Day Three
15. MartinD-- Duke, MEDIC, SHOT-KILLED BY EAGLFAN, Day Three
2. Grover
5. cheekimonk
6. Raven
11. Autumn
12. britrock88
14. Narcizo
16. MrBug708
7. The Jackal-- Hunter, KILLED BY WOLVES, Night Three
3. JAG-- Hunter, KILLED BY WOLVES, Night One
4. timmae-- Hunter, Peacemaker and Cunning Wolf, DUKE-LYNCHED BY SHOVELER, Day Three
8. Vaimes-- Hunter, DUKE-LYNCHED BY MARTIND, Day Two
9. fontisian-- Hunter, Shot Used, Day Four
10. EagleFan-- Hunter, Shot Used Day Three
13. Zinto-- Hunter, LYNCHED, Day One

CULTIST-- You do not have a natural Hunter or Duke ability, although you will be a member of one of those teams. You have the ability to act as a member of one of those teams as if you were The Blank (Hunter team) or Stuttering Sam (Duke team).

Would seem that The Cultist was told they were a Hunter or a Duke in advance.
If so, With 16 players, that means we probably had 8:8 Hunters : Dukes, with 7 Hunters already known, and 2 Dukes already known.

If font is indeed The Cultist, then the remaining Hunter is The Blank.
If font is the real Blank, then The Cultist is the remaining Hunter and is also The Blank.

Seems we don't have to worry about anymore shots being fired.

If font is The Cultist, then I think the remaining Hunter can come out and claim so. Anyone agree/disagree?

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 01:53 PM

The cultist could be a duke.. and thus stuttering sam..

Narcizo

04-24-2015, 01:54 PM

vote fontisian

Out of time. I won't be back by the lynch.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 01:55 PM

Day Four Vote Tally (as of Post #1061)

fontisian (6)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041), Shoveler (1057), Narcizo (1060)
Narcizo (2)-- cheekimonk (1016), Raven (1045)
britrock88 (1)-- MrBug708 (1046)
Autumn (1)-- fontisian (1047)

Raven

04-24-2015, 01:57 PM

I guess it's also possible that there is no real "The Blank". So there may be a single shot left.

But if font is The Cultist, she didn't read the rules regarding the Cultist - which seems unlike her.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 01:58 PM

font could be the blank hunter and just a vanilla villager.. that is entirely possible. the cultist could still be either a hunter or a duke..

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 01:59 PM

at least that is how I interpreted the rules.. there would be one blank, one stuttering sam.. and the cultist who would also act like whichever one of those was on their hunter/duke faction.

Raven

04-24-2015, 01:59 PM

Plus the Clip (which could be in a Dukes hand, thus giving him a shot).

Damn Chief and all his rules!

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:01 PM

i hope the clip is in a village dukes hands.. we are going to end up with alot of dukes at the end, and duke shooting duke wasn't a suicide move.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 02:01 PM

Plus the Clip (which could be in a Dukes hand, thus giving him a shot).

Damn Chief and all his rules!

:devil:

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:10 PM

Sort of guessing I may be the night kill tonight.. so in that event I will put down a few thoughts..

Font and EF are known hunters, if either/both of them are villagers they are probably safe from NK as they will be the duke wolves easy out in the event of a lynch.

I am not sure what to make of narc jumping on the shoveler-friend wagon..

I've taken one successful gamble this game.. and I've already taken another..

If you received an item from me use it every day.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 02:14 PM

I think even if Font is the cultist lynching her is the right choice. Letting the wolves hit the cultist would be a huge setback right now. It's also important to know so we can evaluate votes knowing whether the wolves knew her or not.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:17 PM

Ok.

1. I cannot be the cultist. Look at my Day 1. I was laid back and pushing timmae and JAG as scum and Vaimes as town. Two of those reads were accurate.

The cultist should be attempting to attract attention away from the scumteam while linking up with them somehow. I haven't done anything of the sort.

Also, if I was the cultist, I would have duked the lynch toDay or yesterDay instead of using a kill, as that wastes an entire lynch.

2. Even if I was the cultist, I'm completely harmless. My (blank) kill is spent, if I was the cultist, I wouldn't be able to make any nks and the town can win with me still alive, and you won't get any vote analysis out of my lynch,
because all of the scum probably think I'm town.

This lynch is bad. Lynch scum.

I mean, the evidence against me is what? That I had the misfortune of being the blank?

Whereas EagleFan saw that I was going to shoot Autumn, and then, saying absolutely nothing in the thread, tried to beat my kill command in to kill not a only a townie but someone guaranteed to be a Duke. And now they're both voting me for nebulous reasons.

EF and Autumn are scum. Lynch them.

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 02:17 PM

I am comfortable with my vote today and am about to be heading into a late meeting (hate these on a Friday afternoon, they never freaking get done by 5).

I may not be on until late this evening (if I am still alive).

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:18 PM

I think even if Font is the cultist lynching her is the right choice. Letting the wolves hit the cultist would be a huge setback right now. It's also important to know so we can evaluate votes knowing whether the wolves knew her or not.
No it wouldn't!

You know this. The wolves hitting the cultist means they're not hitting the seer or the bodyguard and that is suicide for them.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:20 PM

Like, I am completely failing to understand why the scum team would want to hit the cultist if they've already figured out who they are. It doesn't change the vote ratios at all, and I think it lets the seer start checking the cultist as scum anyway.

And I'm sure the only reason this argument is coming up is that the wolves know I've probably been checked as town and want to see how the seer reacts to the argument so they can shoot them before they claim.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:23 PM

Ok.Also, if I was the cultist, I would have duked the lynch toDay or yesterDay instead of using a kill, as that wastes an entire lynch.

I dont get this statement at all. You took a shot today and at worst you are the blank hunter.

How do you duke yesterday if you were the cultist? the cultist is still associated with one side. You can't be both.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:25 PM

I dont get this statement at all. You took a shot today and at worst you are the blank hunter.

How do you duke yesterday if you were the cultist? the cultist is still associated with one side. You can't be both.
Fuck my life, I misread the rules again.

I was under the impression that Stuttering Sam prevents a lynch from happening if he activities. Since the cultist has to look like Stuttering Sam, he could therefore nullify a lynch and help the scum team that way. Instead Sam just prevents a duking.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:29 PM

Oh holy shit, I have an idea. We have seven hunters out now, and one blank. There are zero to one left (if you believe I'm the blank) or one to two left. (if you believe I am the cultist) If I am the cultist, then it can be confirmed by a those one to two hunters coming forward and shooting a scummy Duke. If the blank hits, then I'm the cultist. If no one comes forward, or if only a real hunter comes forward, then I'm obviously the real blank.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:31 PM

Oh holy shit, I have an idea. We have seven hunters out now, and one blank. There are zero to one left (if you believe I'm the blank) or one to two left. (if you believe I am the cultist) If I am the cultist, then it can be confirmed by a those one to two hunters coming forward and shooting a scummy Duke. If the blank hits, then I'm the cultist. If no one comes forward, or if only a real hunter comes forward, then I'm obviously the real blank.

you already took today's shot. nobody can shoot until after the deadline.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:31 PM

And did I mention that I was pushing timmae as scum Day 1? I did? Wow.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:32 PM

you already took today's shot. nobody can shoot until after the deadline.
Actually, I'm not entirely sure that's true. Has anyway asked Chief?

Either way, lynching someone one Day when you confirm them the next Day is stupid.

Grover

04-24-2015, 02:32 PM

font is on tilt.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:34 PM

Shoveler, why do you think my shot on scummy, unconfirmed role, and prior warned Autumn was worse that EF's shot out of nowhere on the confirmed town, confirmed Duke Martin? Explain to me how that could possibly make any sense.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:35 PM

font is on tilt.
Font is pissed.

What are you doing? Do you realize that you were the only likely town voting me throughout the Day? For what?

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:37 PM

Frankly, it's hard not to get pissed after watching kills and lynches get spent on confirmed town twice, getting run up for no goddamn reason, correctly pushing scum, having my shot fail on me, and watching people call me a cultist when that doesn't jive with my behavior at all.

Add in the bullshit logic about how the scum team would possibly want to turn the cultist into a full wolf (as if that changes the voting ratios or overrun time /at all/) and the way no one is even bothering to look at Autumn and EF, the obvious scum, and this is absolutely insane.

Grover

04-24-2015, 02:38 PM

Font is pissed.

What are you doing? Do you realize that you were the only likely town voting me throughout the Day? For what?

I believe that you are the cultist.

You surety of Bug being town. You attempting to take a shot at another villager with nothing but a hunch. I don't believe I'm the only villager voting on you either.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:40 PM

I guess font, the selling point to me is that you called brit out as the seer and he's voting for you..

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:43 PM

Wolves.. please NK me.. I'm starting to envy the dead in this game.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:47 PM

I believe that you are the cultist.

You surety of Bug being town. You attempting to take a shot at another villager with nothing but a hunch. I don't believe I'm the only villager voting on you either.
Bug is obvious newb-town. His vote position next to timmae along with this post:
I should clarify that I don't have much on anyone so I will be suspicious of anyone who is suspicious of me.

Sorry if it doesn't help
Where he clearly wants to help but doesn't know how, makes him town. Once I flip, never lynch or shoot him.

Autumn is very likely not a villager. He 1.Is one of the three unconfirmed people on the Zinto lynch (the other being you, a likely town, and Narc, who is acting townier than Autumn.) He was the only one to argue against the Vaimes/Martin/me team on Day 2, but then he tried to push it off on cheeki, one of my stronger town reads at the time. The push itself was weak, and similar to the way many stronger players like to act as scum (avoiding an incoming town lynch in order to get a little towncred). When I threatened to shoot him, he treated the threat overly blithely, especially after Vaimes shot me out of nowhere the previous Day. Then, I found that EF, who had just finished trying to bait me into shooting him (which, were I not the blank, would have killed us both) immediately put a shot in, with no warning, on a confirmed town the scumteam wanted dead who was also a Duke (and therefore guaranteed not to kill him). This effectively protected Autumn on Day 3. Then, Autumn started this fearmongering about me being a cultist, and only began to push it after I suggested it was likely I had already been seer checked as town.

Autumn is scum. EF is probably scum. Britrock is the likely third.

You aren't the only villager voting on me. But you'll note that I called out Autumn, EF, britrock, cheeki and Narc (in that order) as containing the last scum at the beginning of the Day. Then you, Autumn, EF and britrock voted for me.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 02:49 PM

The idea that two wolves wouldn't vote next to each other in a vote list seems like the thinnest of all possible reasons to clear someone. I just wanted to say that.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:50 PM

I guess font, the selling point to me is that you called brit out as the seer and he's voting for you..
I didn't call him out as the seer though!

I thought, when I saw him protecting Autumn, that he was either 1. A seer, 2. a wolf with or cultist to Autumn or 3. a really bad townie. I then looked through the game, especially Autumn and brit's play, assessed that 1 was really unlikely, and, even if it was true, that brit is a good enough player to them claim and win the game for us, that I took the shot. It was just one of many, many factors I took into account instead of just shooting randomly.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:52 PM

The idea that two wolves wouldn't vote next to each other in a vote list seems like the thinnest of all possible reasons to clear someone. I just wanted to say that.
Yes, I'm sure you wouldn't want that to be assessed.

New wolves, by necessity, want to distance themselves from their partners whenever possible. If there are two town wagons, then you can count on them not voting one right after another as opposed spreading out their votes on different times and wagons. Of course, now that I've said this, I expect that pattern to change a bit.

This kind of analysis doesn't apply to more experienced people like brit, Autumn, EF and Narc.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 02:53 PM

sorry font, you many very well be right, and we may be lynching the wrong person.. but the rules in this game are so confusing and just thinking through all the possibilities is about to make my head explode.

If the town does manage to win this game, every surviving member should be automatically welcomed into MENSA with open arms.

Again, I hope I die tonight. This game is making me feel intellectually inept.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 02:53 PM

I don't think it applies to anybody. I've been a wolf a hundred times and don't think we've ever discussed the timing of our votes. It's certainly not something clear enough that you could find wolves using it.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:55 PM

sorry font, you many very well be right, and we may be lynching the wrong person.. but the rules in this game are so confusing and just thinking through all the possibilities is about to make my head explode.

If the town does manage to win this game, every surviving member should be automatically welcomed into MENSA with open arms.

Again, I hope I die tonight. This game is making me feel intellectually inept.
Oh my God, Shoveler. That is so not helpful.

This game isn't that complicated. Read my arguments, read Autumns, stop using faulty odds (because they always steer you wrong) and assess which arguments are stronger.

Raven

04-24-2015, 02:55 PM

font, If you come up town, then I'm pushing for a brit lynch tomorrow.
I already suspect brit/narc, and Autumn was quick to jump to the defense of brit (which seemed odd to me).

The rest of you - if font is town, and I am NK'd, then PLEASE take out brit! I'm not sure if it's brit/narc or brit/Autumn, but brit is the common link. Autumn could also be the Cultist if it's brit/narc. I would not completely rule out EF either.

Or seer can just scan brit tonight.

if font comes up dirty, then I'd looking closely at Grover/Bug tomorrow.

Raven

04-24-2015, 02:56 PM

^^EF as wolf, not Cultist.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:56 PM

I don't think it applies to anybody. I've been a wolf a hundred times and don't think we've ever discussed the timing of our votes. It's certainly not something clear enough that you could find wolves using it.
...

Of course you don't discuss it. It's an in the moment thing, where if you (a newbie wolf) see your scummate making a case against a townie, you don't immediately vote with them but rather wait for another townie to make a move or vote somewhere to look different.

fontisian

04-24-2015, 02:57 PM

font, If you come up town, then I'm pushing for a brit lynch tomorrow.
I already suspect brit/narc, and Autumn was quick to jump to the defense of brit (which seemed odd to me).

The rest of you - if font is town, and I am NK'd, then PLEASE take out brit! I'm not sure if it's brit/narc or brit/Autumn, but brit is the common link. Autumn could also be the Cultist if it's brit/narc. I would not completely rule out EF either.

Or seer can just scan brit tonight.

if font comes up dirty, then I'd looking closely at Grover/Bug tomorrow.
No, no, no.

If I am scum, you lynch Autumn tomorrow. And the seer claims asap. And every Duke puts in an action on the designated lynch of the Day to stop it from being Duked by scum to the seer.

Raven

04-24-2015, 02:58 PM

Why Autumn tomorrow if you are scum?

fontisian

04-24-2015, 03:00 PM

Why Autumn tomorrow if you are scum?
The explanatory post is on this page.

I will say that I don't like Narc's decision to follow Shoveler. It feels like he's absolving himself of responsibility.

But I would be very surprised if at least two wolves aren't on my wagon.

Raven

04-24-2015, 03:01 PM

If you came up wolf/cultist, we would not be lynching the person you suggested we lynch next.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 03:01 PM

DEADLINE

fontisian

04-24-2015, 03:02 PM

Oh derp, sorry. I'm very stressed. I'm going to flip town, though, and you need to lynch Autumn.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 03:13 PM

After Fontisian's faield attempt to kill Autumn, the village seems to reach a point of crystal clarity: Fontisian is evil.

Although so many have already lost their lives, the village finds a certain serenity on this day. So many recent days, confusion reigned, fingers were pointed, debates got heated. There was no consensus. No one seemed to really know what was going on.

So the village confidence at finding someone as evil as Fontisian is refreshing and calming. Everyone knows what must be done today, and they will do it.

Fontisian sees it coming and pleads her case. She gets more frustrated and exasperated as her arguments fall on deaf ears.

At the end, she has conceded defeat, and yet still maintains defiance in doing so, as only she can.

"You won't find an oil profiteer here," she cried. "Heed my words in death, if you refuse to hear them as I live."

The villagers calmly, almost eagerly grab fontisian and escort her to the gator pits. No one tries to stop them. She is stripped of her belongings and merrily tossed in amongst the gators, and they rip her to shreds.

A villager looks through her belongings as her death cry fades away. Surely, he will find those stock certificates again. Or some other indication she was just another evil, oil-seeking murderer. He searched and searched. But all he found was a necklace of gator teeth, a clip of blanks and her useless gun.

FONTISIAN was a Hunter and the BLANK. She was a villager and had no villager role!

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 03:14 PM

Night actions being processed.

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 03:43 PM

It's a dark night in the village. Many of you lie sleepless in bed, wracked with guilt and confusion at how Fontisian was not an oil profiteer. How could you all be wrong? Who could it be?

You stumble out of your shacks and do a quick count. You are crestfallen to discover one of you is missing.

It doesn't take long to find him. Raven lies beside the river, clearly the victim of a cottonmouth snake, one of the most venomous snakes in the world.

"This can't be an accident," says one villager. "Cottonmouths rarely bite humans unless agitated. Raven was clearly set up!"

RAVEN was a Duke with no role. He was a villager with no role.

DAY FIVE has begun. The deadline is 4 p.m. EST/1 p.m. PDT MONDAY.

Hunters may commence firing at any time.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 03:45 PM

Holy crap. I truly, truly am astounded that Font was not evil. I will have to revise my entire understanding of her villager game. Wow.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 03:45 PM

Boo!

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:45 PM

Vote Britrock

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 03:46 PM

That completely changes my view of the game. I thought for certain she was coming up bad.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 03:47 PM

Vote Britrock

Wrong, unfortunately.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 03:47 PM

I'm the seer.

My views: Timmae, Jackal, Autumn, and Shoveler. All negative, and only half surviving. Not my best effort.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:47 PM

Wrong, unfortunately.

why?

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:48 PM

UNVOTE
Vote: Autumn

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:48 PM

UNVOTE

oops

britrock88

04-24-2015, 03:49 PM

I'm as miffed as you are at this point. I'd have to say Narc and EF are probably the best two targets left...

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:50 PM

Unless you are lying, then it's you and autumn

Grover

04-24-2015, 03:50 PM

Dammit. Bad move. I thought for sure she was the Cultist, if not a full-blown wolf.

We're lucky we still have the Seer and BG.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 03:51 PM

why?

And shoot. I went with you on the hunch that you and Font (as wolves) were doing some nice in-thread play to eventually throw shade on me.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 03:52 PM

I was afraid the seer didn't have anything useful, damn. And that doesn't help me narrow it down at all.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:54 PM

most everyone is here I think.. anyone going to counter brit's claim of seer?

Autumn

04-24-2015, 03:54 PM

I have to think maybe we look back at EF for that kill. It seemed positively shiny compared to Font's play but in retrospect, maybe not.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:56 PM

If this turns out to be a wolf team of timmae, EF, and mr bug.. I am lynch voting anyone that is afk day 1 from here on out.

britrock88

04-24-2015, 03:57 PM

If this turns out to be a wolf team of timmae, EF, and mr bug.. I am lynch voting anyone that is afk day 1 from here on out.

If you wondered why I emphasized that on D1 or why I ended up scanning timmae, there's your answer...

Autumn

04-24-2015, 03:57 PM

Hah, true that.

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 03:57 PM

I would say to shoot me to whomever is the remaining hunter, that way when I come up villager you have narrowed down who it can be but that will not work out as we would both die and I think we are just about at end game.

Grover

04-24-2015, 03:57 PM

Chief, what was the final voting tally for today? You never posted it!

Autumn

04-24-2015, 03:58 PM

Well, might as well try something.

<b>vote eaglefan</b>

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 03:59 PM

I'll be on later to see where things stand and go over the voting.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 03:59 PM

If the remaining hunter is town.. do not shoot anyone

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 04:00 PM

UNVOTE

oops

Are you unvoting Autumn, or was this a clarification on unvoting britrock and you want your vote on Autumn?

As it stands right now (in the order you did it), you have unvoted and do not have a vote out htere.

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 04:01 PM

Are you unvoting Autumn, or was this a clarification on unvoting britrock and you want your vote on Autumn?

As it stands right now (in the order you did it), you have unvoted and do not have a vote out htere.

That is correct..

Unvote autumn

Chief Rum

04-24-2015, 04:03 PM

Chief, what was the final voting tally for today? You never posted it!

Good point. I never posted it as a final tally, but my last tally was the one, since no one changed their votes after that.

Here you go:

FINAL Day Four Vote Tally

fontisian (6)-- Autumn (929), Grover (957), britrock88 (1038), EagleFan (1041), Shoveler (1057), Narcizo (1060)
Narcizo (2)-- cheekimonk (1016), Raven (1045)
britrock88 (1)-- MrBug708 (1046)
Autumn (1)-- fontisian (1047)

Shoveler

04-24-2015, 04:09 PM

I'm actually hoping that narc/ef is the wolf pair, as I think that's an easy combo for us to take out.

1. lynch narc and use the bullhorn
2. lynch EF - he can't duke

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 04:14 PM

vote bug

Can't have an UTR wolf play us.

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 04:17 PM

Frustrated at my reads this game. I would have bet the house that font would come back as either cultist or wolf.

The Jackal

04-24-2015, 04:18 PM

:popcorn:

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 04:20 PM

Go Flyers!

...

Whenever they play again... :(

(that was to Jackal)

Autumn

04-24-2015, 04:46 PM

Going out for a while, will check back in later tonight.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 04:49 PM

vote bug

Can't have an UTR wolf play us.

Are you claiming seer?

cheekimonk

04-24-2015, 04:55 PM

I'm sticking with my D4 read:

vote Narc

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 06:29 PM

Are you claiming seer?

No. Just claiming you have been UTR.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 06:33 PM

No. Just claiming you have been UTR.

Well, you claimed me as a wolf as well, that's slightly different than what you are claiming here..

EagleFan

04-24-2015, 06:47 PM

Well, you claimed me as a wolf as well, that's slightly different than what you are claiming here..

Voting for you because of my options for lynching I would rather vote for the UTR player so a UTR wolf doesn't win it.

MrBug708

04-24-2015, 06:52 PM

Well, I can't really fault you for that as my strategy is probably just as terrible.

Autumn

04-24-2015, 09:03 PM

Seems like maybe everyone has posted at this point, so I'm buying this Brit reveal. With Brit and Shoveler cleared, and me semi-cleared, that leaves it down to Narc, Bug, Cheeki, EF and Grover to vote in. I am assuming there are two wolves left (though I guess three wolves is only an assumption) and as i know I'm not the Cultist they are in that group as well. That gives us very good odds, but with a Brutal, a Hunter and some duke still out there we can't afford to miss I don't think.

EF has to top my list because of his kill, but then again Font and Vaimes were villagers, so maybe EF just completes the trifecta. I feel best about Narc and Cheeki out of that bunch, so my next vote would be between Bug and Grover. I'd like to think i'm awesome at this and those are the three we're looking for, but I have not been all that on target this game, other than with Timmae.

cheekimonk

04-25-2015, 06:23 AM

Seems like maybe everyone has posted at this point, so I'm buying this Brit reveal. With Brit and Shoveler cleared, and me semi-cleared, that leaves it down to Narc, Bug, Cheeki, EF and Grover to vote in. I am assuming there are two wolves left (though I guess three wolves is only an assumption) and as i know I'm not the Cultist they are in that group as well. That gives us very good odds, but with a Brutal, a Hunter and some duke still out there we can't afford to miss I don't think.

EF has to top my list because of his kill, but then again Font and Vaimes were villagers, so maybe EF just completes the trifecta. I feel best about Narc and Cheeki out of that bunch, so my next vote would be between Bug and Grover. I'd like to think i'm awesome at this and those are the three we're looking for, but I have not been all that on target this game, other than with Timmae.

I voted in

cheekimonk

04-25-2015, 06:30 AM

Read the latest posts and with EF's focus on UTR and Autumn's mention of Grover, I went back and looked at his posts/votes. He has been nibbling at the edges a lot this game with some token "explain your logic" or "I'm stating an idea already out there but with different words" posts.

unvote Narc
vote Grover

Autumn

04-25-2015, 07:12 AM

I voted in

I just meant those are the group we will be voting from.

Narcizo

04-25-2015, 07:40 AM

I'm actually hoping that narc/ef is the wolf pair, as I think that's an easy combo for us to take out.

1. lynch narc and use the bullhorn
2. lynch EF - he can't duke

This is logical. Unfortunately it loses us the game. (Pronoun game *ding*, by us I mean the village).

Honestly I think we're dead - the odds are too stacked against us. That kind of takes a lot of pressure off now. For what its worth, endgame logic suggests that the absolute cleared make the decisions. But I'll try to make my case - I suggest everyone else does the same. That won't be today for me though. I need a break.

Shoveler

04-25-2015, 07:49 AM

take the weekend off. we dont need to get back to this until monday.

Narcizo

04-25-2015, 11:55 AM

Something just occured to me - its probably me being paranoid but Autumn seems to have been very sure that I'm a villager. Obviously I've been grateful that he believes me but it struck me as a bit odd that he's been prepared to overlook me despite my less that stirling village performance. It's probably just me being paranoid, but I think he might be the cultist. I still think he should be listened to, the same as everyone else, I don't want to ruin our chances with my paranoia.

Obviously this makes me look worse than I already am but I can't really do anything about that. It just struck me while I was cooking and I felt I'd better mention it.

Narcizo

04-26-2015, 01:19 PM

OK so I've been thinking way too much about this game. More than is healthy. So I decided I was just going to quit. God it was relief. I actually slept 6 hours in a row. That helped - I realised, it's just a game. If we lose, we lose. - So I'm going to come up with what I've considered.

Procedural stuff is what I'm good at. It's kind of heavy reading – sorry about that. There are some details I don't want to go into before we know what's what as I don't want to give the wolves ideas. I want to emphasise that I'm not saying anyone should reveal or do anything – I'm just trying to brainstorm.

1- I think we should discuss everyone funnelling their items to Shoveler or Britrock, the completely cleared. I guess there's a risk that the wolves or the cultist will take a shot at them (either the hunter wolf, if there is one or with an ammo clip). If we wanted to play it safe then the person with the ammo clip should send that first. If it comes then everyone else can send their stuff. That way Britrock or Shoveler will know what we've got. If they want they could tell the rest of us and we can claim what items we've sent. The wolves might feel the need to give up items to gain trust which is to our advantage. If Brit or Shove don't want to risk being caught with the items by a brutal or something they can send the items out again to people they trust.

2 - Next the problem of the wolves duking the lynch. Obviously if we know we have the bullhorn then that can be used. I'm going to say that there are other solutions but they're not infallible and I don't want to go into them for now as it might help the wolves with their planning.

3 – Or we can use a day kill instead. Might be the best if we don't have the bullhorn. If we have an ammo clip or there is another village hunter we shoot the suspect. (unless the suspect is Eagle or the other hunter in which case we need the ammo clip). If we don't have the clip that means the village hunter is going to have to give himself away shooting.
If the suspect is village we go 4:2:1 – we still get a lynch but it may be duked (we lose) or a brutal lynching leaves us 3:1:1 followed by a night kill and we're 2:1:1 at the mercy of day kills or tied votes.
If we hit the brutal with the daykill we're 4:1:1 going into the lynch and we have to hit at least the cultist or we risk being 2:1:1 going into the next day.
Hit a normal wolf and we're 5:1:1 and I think we can afford a misslynch, no lynch (or wolf duking) – 4:1:1, 3:1:1 with the night kill.
Hit the cultist and we're 5:2. We can afford to misslynch, just, but are at the mercy of daykills and have to lynch the non-brutal first (I think).

4 – I thought about no lynch as a solution (don't know if its legal) but unfortunately it doesn't hold up in most cases. In theory it's good - bodyguard can protect Britrock – Britrock can get another scan in. Leaves us 4:2:1 if the wolves nightkill, or 5:3 if they convert. The problem is that the wolves might duke the no lynch and it may run foul of the brutal as well. There are ways to control the duke but, again, I don't want to go into that for now.

Basically we need to know if we have the ammo clip and the bullhorn. It would be nice if one of our two cleareds are the last hunter as well because then we control the daykills and we can possibly use the no lynch route.

Tomorrow I'll post my thoughts about who might be a wolf. I need to think about that a bit more. But I think you can ignore my post above - I don't think Autumn is the cultist. I think he would have fake claimed as seer if he was. He would have it all lined up for after daybreak. I think you can say the same thing about me - Autumn will tell you that I'm not afraid to fake claim if I'm a cultist. But I could be wrong. Maybe he thought he was too distrusted to try it. Maybe he thought Britrock's scan of him benefited him.

So that's it for me. I'm afraid it isn't great reading but there are positives we can use if we have luck with the items.

Autumn

04-26-2015, 07:02 PM

It definitely feels we're on a cusp where it can end up a win in either direction, depending on who the hunter is, who has the bullhorn, who has the ammo clip. I"m hoping to see more posts from everyone in the morning, as we need to make a very good lynch decision today.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 01:13 AM

Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4

Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 01:16 AM

Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 01:18 AM

Day Three

11:21 #799 Cheeki votes fonti (1)
11:38 #806 Autumn votes Fonti (2) / Fonti 2
11:44 #807 Shoveler votes Fonti (3) / Font 3
12:07 #815 Jackal votes Eagle (1)
12:15 #821 Fonti votes Eagle (2) / Font 3, Eagle 2
12:33 #844 Grover votes Eagle (3) / Font, Eagle 3
13:12 #859 Timmae votes Eagle (4) / Eagle 4, Font 3
13:44 #870 Bug votes Eagle (5) / Eagle 5, Font 3
15:15 #885 Narcizo votes Fonti (4) / Eagle 5, Font 4
15:27 #886 Britrock votes Fonti (5) / Eagle, Font 5
15:45 #890 Raven votes Fonti (6) / Font 6, Eagle 5
15:59 #901 Jackal unvotes Eagle, votes Fonti (7) / Font 7, Eagle 4

FINAL Day Three Vote Tally

fontisian (7)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890), The Jackal (901)
EagleFan (4)-- fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)

Yet to Vote: EagleFan

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 02:19 AM

Ok here goes. I think I got it. I realise that that's going to look dodgy as I was all "I don't know, I'm voting with Shoveler" bullshit on Friday. I admit that it was bullshit although the theory was correct - if in doubt vote with the trusted. I also know that it's wolfy to claim to have the solution to everything - and I admit that I'm not certain about everything. You have to factor in the fact that I tend to get very sure of things at this stage. So I need a critical analysis of this. Like everyone else I've been obsessed with the Vaimes/Martin/Fonti thing for three days, just like Autumn warned us against. But now I know that was a chimera I can think about things that went down.

I think one of the wolves is EagleFan. I'm not sure about the other one but I'm leaning towards Bug. Obviously it's not a great reach for me - I mean as I know I'm village I have a 50% chance of being right with the first pick and 33% chance of getting the other just at random.

To start off with I think it's important to think about Eagle's view on werewolf. He HATES "excel-based vote-analysis" werewolf. I've been in a game where he tried to destroy it with multiple chances for conversions and he got pissed when vote-analysis won the day anyway. But he misunderstands what vote-analysis is. It isn't a matter of seeing who voted away from a wolf and voting for them. It's about taking it in context.

Post #832
I let font get under my skin and I wasn't sold on the idea that he knew that he was attacked. He was a safe target and I fully expected to see a wolf result which would have meant font was wolf two. Took a hero shot and failed miserably. I am fine with facing my punishment. I have been useless anyway.

So first there is the kill of Martin. I know I'm on shaky ground here as I was convinced Martin was bad as well. But even then I stated that the correct action was to kill Font as that would prove Martin's allegiance. Killing Martin wouldn't if he flipped village. Anyway so Eagle and Font have another of their bust ups and Eagle is pissed off with Fonti so he shoots - Martin? Eagle says that he shot Martin because it was the safe option. Firstly just psychologically I doubt that. If Eagle thought Font was a wolf he'd shoot her. And then there's this.

Posted 6:40 on the day in question post #710.
Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

Now the question is - did he put in the kill order before or after this post. If he put it in before why the hell was he bothering to post. According to his own story he was sure that Martin was bad. Surely he didn't need a case. He could smugly wait and when Martin turned up bad he could be all "Ha! In your face Fonti". If the order came afterwards then why didn't he shoot Fonti? If he's village and Fonti says she's a hunter why in hell would he believe her. I certainly didn't. The evidence was that she was duke. So why not shoot her? Martin was the safer shot? I don't buy it. Village-Eagle thinks Fonti is a lying duke wolf and he puts a bullet in her. If I'm cunning I'd wait until Eagle was around and then ask him about the timing of his kill order. Can't be bothered though. I want to get all this out and then just leave it.

OK. I didn't think Eagle could be a wolf at the time because "Why would a wolf expose themselves" like that? I think the answer is that Eagle was telling the truth when he was taking a hero shot. But for the wolves. I won't say he wanted to be lynched but he, at least, expected to be lynched. Let's look at day one.

Eagle votes timmae and then both timmae and he are away for deadline. My guess is that timmae mentioned that he wasn't going to be around so they came up with a plan to improve the chances of timmae getting scanned. Eagle puts in an early vote. If it gets traction they rely on a village or the cultist pointing out that timmae isn't around. I hated that timmae wasn't around when Zinto was up for lynch because had he been there I would have voted for him. If that was the plan it worked to perfection. Someone did mention that timmae wasn't around and the seer did scan timmae. Result!

So back to day three. The wolves think Martin has an important role - he was defended so it must be true. So why not take him out and use Eagle as the sacrificial wolf. My bet is that both wolves vote for him - timmae does. Just to hammer home the point Eagle doesn't vote for himself. 1) Reverse pyschology - if someone doesn't vote to save themselves then they can't be a wolf. 2) If he's lynched Timmae and A.N.Other wolf come up smelling of roses. Particularly timmae who already has an Eagle vote on him from day one. Standard first-level interpretation of the voting will tell us that timmae, and A.N.Other wolf are village and the wolves are in among the Fonti voters.

Unfortunately Shoveler goes insane and dukes the lynch to timmae. God that must have been a shock for the wolves. But Font is left available for lynching because Eagle has chosen to shoot Martin instead of Font.

OK. That's pretty much the main gist. There are other anomalies that taken on their own don't amount to much and could just be the product of my vivid imagination. This from Friday.

vote bug

Can't have an UTR wolf play us.

Are you claiming seer?

No. Just claiming you have been UTR.

Well, you claimed me as a wolf as well, that's slightly different than what you are claiming here..

Voting for you because of my options for lynching I would rather vote for the UTR player so a UTR wolf doesn't win it.

Well, I can't really fault you for that as my strategy is probably just as terrible.

Am I the only one who finds the little dialogue somewhat, well, forced? I think this is a signal to the cultist to counter-claim. I mean seriously. I think Brit's claim was probably the weakest I've seen in a long time. I was fully expecting a counter-claim when I read - and I know which claim I would have trusted. In fact I think they might have thought that I'm the cultist and they were telling me to claim. But I admit that's pretty weak sauce.

But who is the cultist? If Eagle is a wolf then I expect it to be someone who did vote to save him on day three. The cultist won't know the plan - his main purpose is to save a wolf in a vote. That leaves Autumn, Cheeki and myself. Great cases that Autumn or me are the cultist. We both make cases for believing Eagle and lynching font. But as I said earlier I believe Autumn would counter Brit's claim and I know I would. The case for Brit being a cultist or a wolf faking almost writes itself. Brit was the one who emphasised that Timmae wasn't around on day one and his scan targets are, well, less than optimal. Shoveler? The guy who was already pretty much trusted? If I was the cultist or a wolf for that matter it would be easy to counter-claim painting Brit as the cultist protecting wolf-Autumn. Tell me you wouldn't have believed that? Unfortunately for the wolves, I believe the cultist was the inexperienced Cheeki.

Cheeki's vote is opposite Eagle on day three. Look at the voting on day one. Cheeki is going full out to protect Timmae. He comes off as a confused villager because he is on his own without wolf back-up but the gist of his voting looks to be saving timmae. Day two he moves his vote from Martin to Autumn to consolidate the two-horse race and then moves back to Martin to see him lynched. Day three he keeps his vote on fonti despite a surge for Eagle. Who has he voted so far toDay? Myself and, as soon as Autumn mentions Bug or Grover, he opts for Grover.

OK unfortunately if I'm right then it's pretty clear who the bodyguard it. But, to be honest, if I'm right then the wolves would have worked that out themselves by this stage. If I'm not right then I haven't revealed him but I still think they can work out who the bodyguard is, as they know who they are.

Well that's it for me. I know we should all discuss things. I can't put myself through that though. I've said my piece I want done with this.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 02:42 AM

My recommendation is

a) If we have the ammo clip someone shoots Eagle. If we have the sights the person who shoots is given those. If we don't have the mirror the person shooting should not be announced ahead.

If Eagle is village and has protection he should take it off so he can be shot. That will leave us with the chance to lynch someone, although it's dodgy ground there. The duking problem actually isn't a problem if we shoot Eagle. Either one wolf is a hunter, in which case the wolves can't duke to a hunter. Or both wolves are dukes and then he has to be able to correctly pick the hunter. If we have the camo suit then the hunter should reveal and we'll give him the suit so the duke can't hit him. Or we use the bullhorn.

If Eagle turns up wolf then we can "No Lynch" if we're allowed. The same applies - either the wolf is a hunter and can't duke or he's a duke and he has to correctly pick out the hunter on our team. This gives Brit an extra scan - he can scan me if he wants or, preferably, Bug. Whatever. If we can't no lynch then you decide who we should lynch. I would argue Bug.

b) If we don't have the ammo clip then I recommend we lynch Eagle. Same procedure with the other hunter getting the camo suit - then the wolves can't duke without killing themselves. Brit gets a scan and we should be alright if Eagle is a wolf. If he isn't we probably lose.

If you think I'm a wolf and want to lynch me then I ask you to daykill me if you're able. I'm a duke, if there's a villager hunter he can shoot me. We're still on dodgy ground but I think there's still a shot if we don't lynch the brutal first. Same procedure - give the village hunter the camo suit - use the bullhorn if you have it. I'll admit that there are scenarios where the wolves will win if you daykill me (as a wolf) and then lynch. I think no lynch will work though. If I'm brutal then the wolves might win but I think they would have to make the nightkill hit and have a daykill. If you think that's my plan then you will just have to lynch me. I really don't want to argue too much about it. If you think I'm the brutal wolf then lynch me.

That's my recommendation. My action will be to vote whomever Britrock and Shoveler decide. As should everyone else after discussion. In an end game the absolutely cleared make the decisions. I am basically taking the same standpoint as yesterDay but, hopefully, a bit more eloquently and rationally.

OK. Now I've said my piece. I shall try to muster the energy to discuss this but I'm probably going to avoid being on too much as it's not good for my health. Without trying to sound too melodramatic this will be my last game for a short or long time.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 04:06 AM

I went back looking to see cases against Grover, Bug and Cheeki and found this.

Posts #878 and #879
I could go along with your area sons but I want to hear more explanation from EF. Maybe he'd just trying to kill off Dukes?

You want to hear more from EF on this, but why are you giving him a potential explanation in the process?

I mostly got hung up over what area sons were. :D But in the light of my theory it's pretty interesting.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 04:08 AM

Of course reading back now it starts to look more like this could all be the possible product of my fantasy that my mind turns into a sure thing. For starters, even if Eagle is a wolf then Cheeki might be the other wolf, playing against the Eagle anti-vote analysis type. Or Grover could be.

It's difficult to read Bug - UTR player is Under The Radar! but I'll look at Grover, Cheeki and Bug and see if anything sticks out other than what I already have mentioned.

EagleFan

04-27-2015, 06:28 AM

I have already said that the hunter should shoot me but the problem is that gives the win to the wolves, unless the hunter is a wolf. The person that I just sent the camo to can confirm.

EagleFan

04-27-2015, 06:34 AM

Actually. May not want confirmation until after the shot is taken. Just in case the hunter is a wolf. Kind of puts us in chicken or egg scenario, unfortunately.

Grover

04-27-2015, 07:33 AM

Hey guys. Was just sent on a delivery to Mass for work. Three hit trip each way. Should be back by three. Apologies for being useless today

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 07:34 AM

Eaglefan has the vest, do not shoot him

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 08:00 AM

Eaglefan has the vest, do not shoot him

How do we know that

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 08:25 AM

You'll have to trust me on that

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 08:29 AM

Is there a mechanic that dictates how one would know about items being used?

Unless there is more than one, you are lying.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 08:29 AM

Wait until we know that we have the ammo clip before discussing who has what sort of protection. The hunter shouldn't shoot anyone before everything is discussed.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 08:35 AM

The problem with Cheeki is that he is new. I think we know his play-style as a villager but he can probably imitate that as a wolf. There is his voting on day one which looks very pro-timmae. After that he seems to flip-flop a lot with his voting, following other people's lead. I think he did that as villager as well but it is kinda wolfy.
Post #293
I think timmae is keeping a lower profile, but that would be townread to me as he was all over this board when he was wolf in WoT (all over with his LIES). Like others, would like to hear more from Vaimes and I didn't expect my vote to stay where it was anyway:
unvote fontisian
vote Vaimes
Very stout defence of timmae day one. Definitely something you would see someone on the same team – particularly an inexperienced player.
There is a lot of general responses to others nudging towards there being a wolf in the Vaimes/Fonti/Martin mess. I can’t really say much about that as I was probably pushing the whole thing a lot myself. It’s just that Cheeki always seems to be playing off of what others say. In fact me in a lot of cases he was responding to me.
Post #416
I think I lean to all 3 being involved somehow. Vaimes doesn't seem the type to be baited.
Post #517
Wow. I mean, based on all that there is no way Vaimes knew font was a duke unless they were in contact.

But it’s very easy to go through posts and find stuff like this. I’m sure you can do the same thing with me. It’s cheeki’s play style (at the moment) to react to what other people are saying.

Post #830
Where did I say I don't want to lynch him? I have to be argued off you first and that will involve watching the analysis from people much more adept at this than me.

Thinks Eagle is dodgy but is going to vote fonti anyway.

Post #871
I think I'm staying where I am. I could go with EF, but haven't been convinced to come off font, either. The duke/hunter analysis above makes me think there's going to be a duke today in any case.

So there we are. EF is bad but Font is badder.

Post #941
Autumn leans much more town than she did which, following convos, puts me on Narc (I've had them pegged as non-aligned since D2). Still wary of EF and font.
vote Narc

So nothing has happened to change what he thinks about font or EF but suddenly he votes for me?

Yeah I can see Cheeki being a baddy. The evidence is particularly harsh if Eagle is bad. But how much is all that because of inexperience. My read from the first day has been that Cheeki is trying to hang with the very complicated rules. He's done better than me at that in a lot of ways.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 08:37 AM

Bug? UTR player is Under The Radar. His flurry of posting on Friday has finally seen him overtake JAG in number of posts. :eek: I realise he has real-life issues so I wouldn’t imagine that’s a conscious decision to stay under the radar. It is what it is. Makes him difficult to read. Day one vote could be argued as a pro-Timmae vote but that’s a very long reach. I guess you could say that if my theory is right then he should have voted timmae but time issues might have meant that he’s not in the loop at the time. If Eagle isn’t wolf then there’s very little in the way of voting analysis to do on him. He voted Autumn over Martin day two but we know that was two non-wolves so that tells us nothing. Votes Eagle day three – if Eagle is village that’s village-village. So voting gives us nothing, and posts give us little. This is why UTR players are so hard to play with. No criticism intended - he has already stated that he wouldn't have joined if he had seen the deadline.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 08:41 AM

Hey guys. Was just sent on a delivery to Mass for work. Three hit trip each way. Should be back by three. Apologies for being useless today

Ok so paranoid prickle, prickle. He won't be back in time for us to decide if we want to/can use the daykill.

This is why I should have posted my piece and then scooted. I'm not going to be able to handle the tension of this.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 08:43 AM

Is there a mechanic that dictates how one would know about items being used?

Unless there is more than one, you are lying.

You're saying you already know where the vest is, and that Shoveler either had another one or is lying?

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 08:44 AM

Yes

Autumn

04-27-2015, 08:49 AM

Well, I suppose it's possible there are multiples.

If not, could be that Shoveler is the world's bussiest wolf/cultist, and is pretending to give a vest to EF to protect a wolf EF? However, he would have to be afraid that the real vest owner would speak up, so that's a gamble. Could be an attempt to flush out the location of the vest for a wolf hunter, but seems a long shot.

Or, a wolf/cultist Bug pretends to have a vest in order to cast suspicion on Shoveler. This also seems a long shot, as it would be hard to convince anyone to lynch Shoveler, and Bug wasn't under any imminent threat.

Could there be more than one vest? That also seems a stretch but maybe less of one.

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 08:51 AM

Chief - Is there more than one of an item?

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 08:56 AM

On my phone so maybe I misstated the item. Eagle has the camo dealy, so he is immune to shooting or duking.

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 08:56 AM

Well, I suppose it's possible there are multiples.

If not, could be that Shoveler is the world's bussiest wolf/cultist, and is pretending to give a vest to EF to protect a wolf EF? However, he would have to be afraid that the real vest owner would speak up, so that's a gamble. Could be an attempt to flush out the location of the vest for a wolf hunter, but seems a long shot.

Or, a wolf/cultist Bug pretends to have a vest in order to cast suspicion on Shoveler. This also seems a long shot, as it would be hard to convince anyone to lynch Shoveler, and Bug wasn't under any imminent threat.

Could there be more than one vest? That also seems a stretch but maybe less of one.

Well, EF has been suspicious of me from the beginning..

Autumn

04-27-2015, 09:01 AM

On my phone so maybe I misstated the item. Eagle has the camo dealy, so he is immune to shooting or duking.

When did you pass it?

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 09:05 AM

Eagle can elect to take off the camo suit. He just has to mail Chief that he's taking it off.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 09:06 AM

Better yet he can give it to someone else.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 09:08 AM

You're saying you already know where the vest is, and that Shoveler either had another one or is lying?

If Shoveler is lying then Britrock was lying about being a seer. Shoveler can't be the cultist because he duked a lynch.

I suspect this is supposed to be your cue Cheeki. :)

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 09:13 AM

I've just read that Stuttering Sam negates the effect of all other dukes. So if all dukes duke the lynch today it can't be duked. Can't believe I went through all the rigamorale thinking about the camo suit when we just needed to all duke.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 09:14 AM

But who is the cultist? If Eagle is a wolf then I expect it to be someone who did vote to save him on day three. The cultist won't know the plan - his main purpose is to save a wolf in a vote. That leaves Autumn, Cheeki and myself. Great cases that Autumn or me are the cultist... Unfortunately for the wolves, I believe the cultist was the inexperienced Cheeki.

Your case on EF is convincing, but I've said twice that I'm vanilla village Duke. I'm not the cultist which, if your analysis is right (honestly, I think you're providing WAY too much info to be a wolf, so I don't think you're being intentionally misleading), the cultist is you or Autumn.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 09:26 AM

DOLA, if I'm lynched I don't know if I'm duking. With so many Dukes remaining and a Hunter with camo (presumably), it has the potential to be game over for us. With this ruleset I don't know if it's smart to admit that, but at endgame I'd rather lose giving all info than not (that said, it's the first time I've made it to endgame, so...).

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 09:50 AM

I suspect this is supposed to be your cue Cheeki. :)

I apologise for this comment. Its disrespectful and makes me look a bit of a dick. Nerves.

We should look into Bug's claim but don't let it interfere with you analysis.

On a different note I'm afraid that I've posted too much info that might help the wolves. I wanted to try to prove that I'm village and I might have gone too far. If we lose because of that I apologise. :(

EagleFan

04-27-2015, 09:52 AM

I sent it to someone. Said that earlier, though I didn't specify what it was.

Don't think it is wise to say who i sent it to, or for that person to come forward.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 10:08 AM

I apologise for this comment. Its disrespectful and makes me look a bit of a dick. Nerves.

We should look into Bug's claim but don't let it interfere with you analysis.

On a different note I'm afraid that I've posted too much info that might help the wolves. I wanted to try to prove that I'm village and I might have gone too far. If we lose because of that I apologise. :(

No worries! I'm enjoying this endgame tension!

Chief Rum

04-27-2015, 10:08 AM

Good morning folks!

I hope you all had a pleasant weekend. I hope you all understand I did very little checking in on this. But I am here now and ready to get back into it.

I will check in on my PMs and then do a vote tally.

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 10:14 AM

I am now 100% certain EF is a wolf.

I sent him the camo vest/suit thingy when we were lynching Font. In that event there were two hunters that had shot and were the easy outs for a wolf duke. The idea here was that we lynch font, removing one out, and hopefully pulling a wolf. Then if we find a duke wolf, they will most likely duke to EF and be blocked.

He would not pass that item if he was town. He probably hasn't passed it to be perfectly honest, if he has it's to his wolf buddy.

I still think we need to lynch the other wolf, and come back for hunter!wolf!EF..

EagleFan

04-27-2015, 10:42 AM

I would certainly pass it. It does no good for a vanilla and to be honest, shooting me wins the game for the wolves, unless the remaining hunter is a wolf.

I have a list of cleared players to pass it to. Makes sense to pass it.

Chief Rum

04-27-2015, 10:56 AM

Chief - Is there more than one of an item?

No.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 11:29 AM

I still think we need to lynch the other wolf, and come back for hunter!wolf!EF..

So, any suggestions here?

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 12:05 PM

I would certainly pass it. It does no good for a vanilla and to be honest, shooting me wins the game for the wolves, unless the remaining hunter is a wolf.

I have a list of cleared players to pass it to. Makes sense to pass it.

This makes no sense.

You knew that after shooting you were revealed as a hunter, and with font getting lynched you would be the easy out for a wolf duke. I passed you an item that prevents this. And you expect me to buy this explanation?

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:05 PM

So, as I stated in my reasoning this weekend, I agree with the UTR reasoning. We have the obvious in MrBug, but I also think Grover has been conspicuously absent from the real heart of any debates. With just a few hours left, do we have any traction on either of these (or neither)?

Chief Rum

04-27-2015, 12:08 PM

In the wake of the lynching of Fontisian and the death of Raven, the village has reached a level of quiet despair.

They almost fear the coming lynch, convinced that, even though it is their only proven method to find the oil profiteers, that they will fail and lynch yet another innocent villager.

The only comfort comes from britrock88, who reveals to the village that he has been keeping an eye on things at night, and that he can definitively clear Autumn and Shoveler (among the living villagers). While not everyone accepts his revelation with fervor, it seems to lift the village's spirits some. At least there is one of us is able to give us a fighting chance, they think.

It turns from midday to midafternoon and the lynch draws nigh. The small town is busy with people about their daily chores, and maybe working a little harder at those, so as to not get stuck pondering the dilemma before them.

Autumn is carrying two buckets of water in his hands, and is apparently struggling to carry them back to his cabin. Some villagers wander over to help, among them britrock88.

Autumn gratefully accepts their help and offers a bucket to britrock. britrock hands fall down as he supports the full weight of the bucket and he starts to turn toward Autumn's home.

In a swift motion, Autumn reaches into the other bucket and pulls out an object. It's a handgun! He drops the bucket as he turns the gun barrel toward britrock. Before anyone can react, he fires!

At that close range, there is no possibility of missing. Autumn's bullet slams into the side of britrock's head and blasts out the other side, spraying blood and brains for several feet. britrock falls away from Autumn, dead instantly.

There is shock--and then outrage. This is more than they can take! The villagers jump to grab Autumn, preparing to take him to the gator pits, the lynch time to be damned.

"Wait! You fools, wait!" Autumn says. 'britrock was a traitor!"

They pay little attention to him as they drag him towards the water.

"Hold up!" a call comes from britrock's body. A villager crouches beside the fallen man, holding a blood splattered book. The lynch mob pauses.

"This is a book on getting rich quick by finding oil!" the villager exclaims.

"I told you!" Autumn says, wrestling his arms free from his would be vigilante killers. "britrock was always ready to betray this village for oil money!"

AUTUMN, a Hunter, has shot and killed BRITROCK88!! Autumn's shot is now used.

BRITROCK88 was a Duke with no role, and he was a Villager. But he was also the CULTIST!!

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:08 PM

This makes no sense.

You knew that after shooting you were revealed as a hunter, and with font getting lynched you would be the easy out for a wolf duke. I passed you an item that prevents this. And you expect me to buy this explanation?

I didn't buy it either, but I don't expect anyone will so why give him a chance to muddy the waters?

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:11 PM

In the wake of the lynching of Fontisian and the death of Raven, the village has reached a level of quiet despair.

They almost fear the coming lynch, convinced that, even though it is their only proven method to find the oil profiteers, that they will fail and lynch yet another innocent villager.

The only comfort comes from britrock88, who reveals to the village that he has been keeping an eye on things at night, and that he can definitively clear Autumn and Shoveler (among the living villagers). While not everyone accepts his revelation with fervor, it seems to lift the village's spirits some. At least there is one of us is able to give us a fighting chance, they think.

It turns from midday to midafternoon and the lynch draws nigh. The small town is busy with people about their daily chores, and maybe working a little harder at those, so as to not get stuck pondering the dilemma before them.

Autumn is carrying two buckets of water in his hands, and is apparently struggling to carry them back to his cabin. Some villagers wander over to help, among them britrock88.

Autumn gratefully accepts their help and offers a bucket to britrock. britrock hands fall down as he supports the full weight of the bucket and he starts to turn toward Autumn's home.

In a swift motion, Autumn reaches into the other bucket and pulls out an object. It's a handgun! He drops the bucket as he turns the gun barrel toward britrock. Before anyone can react, he fires!

At that close range, there is no possibility of missing. Autumn's bullet slams into the side of britrock's head and blasts out the other side, spraying blood and brains for several feet. britrock falls away from Autumn, dead instantly.

There is shock--and then outrage. This is more than they can take! The villagers jump to grab Autumn, preparing to take him to the gator pits, the lynch time to be damned.

"Wait! You fools, wait!" Autumn says. 'britrock was a traitor!"

They pay little attention to him as they drag him towards the water.

"Hold up!" a call comes from britrock's body. A villager crouches beside the fallen man, holding a blood splattered book. The lynch mob pauses.

"This is a book on getting rich quick by finding oil!" the villager exclaims.

"I told you!" Autumn says, wrestling his arms free from his would be vigilante killers. "britrock was always ready to betray this village for oil money!"

AUTUMN, a Hunter, has shot and killed BRITROCK88!! Autumn's shot is now used.

BRITROCK88 was a Duke with no role, and he was a Villager. But he was also the CULTIST!!

Autumn you bastard! All fucking weekend I've been wondering about this.

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 12:12 PM

Hmm...so Britt rock wasn't the seer..

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:15 PM

Hmm...so Britt rock wasn't the seer..

Then why the hell was there no counter-claim?

Also, this...

I'm as miffed as you are at this point. I'd have to say Narc and EF are probably the best two targets left...

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:16 PM

I feel better about my Grover vote now, but I could go Bug, too.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:16 PM

Sorry, Narc, I felt bad to keep you spinning your wheels like that, but I wanted to let the wolves talk as much as possible before making any move.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:18 PM

So, let me guess, JAG, Me, Cheeki, Britrock?

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:18 PM

Here is the status. I am the real seer. My scans are below. It's been tough going, and I don't have a lot. But with the cultist and cunning dead we can now be absolutely sure about Narcizo and Cheekimonk, which will help a lot.

N1 - JAG (clear)
N2 - Narcizo (clear)
N3 - Timmae (wolf)
N4 - cheekimonk (clear)

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:19 PM

If a villager has the bullhorn, they should use it. If a villager has the camo suit and can pass it to me, they can. And if the bodyguard is paying attention, protect me. With one more scan we should be able to win this.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:19 PM

JAG, Me, Brit/Cheeki, Eagle?

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:20 PM

I'm thinking Shoveler, Eagle Autumn.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:21 PM

JAG, Me, Brit/Cheeki, Eagle?

Huh?

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:23 PM

If a villager has the bullhorn, they should use it. If a villager has the camo suit and can pass it to me, they can. And if the bodyguard is paying attention, protect me. With one more scan we should be able to win this.

We still need to know if they've got the ammo clip. I have to rethink the numbers but I think we may still need a lynch today.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:24 PM

So, let me guess, JAG, Me, Cheeki, Britrock?

Three for four. Not so bad.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:24 PM

I'm thinking Shoveler, Eagle Autumn.

Shoveler duked to timmae D3

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:24 PM

cheeki - GOOD
narcizo - GOOD
shoveler - Good
Autumn - Good
eagle fan - ?
mrbug - ?
grover - ?

This is the situation. So we lynch from those three today. If there are two wolves left we have good odds there. Unfortunately the brutal is going to be a problem. I was hoping I might get lucky and Brit would be the brutal, but no luck there. At least his death clears some people, and avoids any conversion. I considered chancing not shooting and so hoping to get another scan but I figured that was pushing my luck too far. Wolves would have gone after Brit tonight, not knowing he was the cultist, and though hopefully the bodyguard would have protected him, you never know and you guys would have hated me if I had messed that up.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:25 PM

We still need to know if they've got the ammo clip. I have to rethink the numbers but I think we may still need a lynch today.

Yes, I'm sorry, we do need a lynch, I was hoping to avoid a duking, but I forgot the bullhorn does a no lynch?

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:25 PM

Well, if the wolves duke today, they'll reveal one of them. The numbers are tight so it may be worth it to them. . By tomorrow, for sure they will be able to just duke it and win if we don't get one today I think.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:26 PM

Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:27 PM

But I figured at this point if they duke it to me, that's as good as getting a positive scan, so it's worth it. Either way we'll know one or two of the wolves by tomorrow. A lot depends on our vote today, items, and duking.

Now, thoughts on most likely wolf candidate.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:27 PM

Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.

A double-bluff involving Shoveler? Again, Shoveler duked to timmae on D3...

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:28 PM

OK scratch that Shoveler and Bug.

We've got the brutal to worry about.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:28 PM

Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.

Brit had to figure he had a 50% chance of being lynched, so you have to figure his comments were made very carefully. Suggesting you and EF as next lynch could be a case of splitting his odds, one villager and one wolf, so it definitely leaves me wondering about EF.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:29 PM

Brit had to figure he had a 50% chance of being lynched, so you have to figure his comments were made very carefully. Suggesting you and EF as next lynch could be a case of splitting his odds, one villager and one wolf, so it definitely leaves me wondering about EF.

Problem is if Shoveler passed EF the camo, he is absolutely lying about passing it to someone else.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:30 PM

A double-bluff involving Shoveler? Again, Shoveler duked to timmae on D3...

Can't buy much more trust than that.

Seriously, he duked to someone he didn't know?

Dunno. I think we have to find the other one. Bodyguard should reveal asap so we can count them out. Please don't let it be cheeki.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:31 PM

I'm REALLY liking my Grover vote now. Bug would still work. Both are likely Dukes and either will Duke a lynch.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:31 PM

Problem is if Shoveler passed EF the camo, he is absolutely lying about passing it to someone else.

How so?

Chief Rum

04-27-2015, 12:31 PM

Day Five Vote Tally (as of Post #1218)

EagleFan (1)-- Autumn (1127)
MrBug708 (1)-- EagleFan (1134)
Grover (1)-- cheekimonk (1147)

Yet To Vote: Grover, Shoveler, Narcizo, MrBug708

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:32 PM

OK. Yeah, scratch Shoveler that's probably just my over-active fantasy.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:32 PM

Can't buy much more trust than that.

Seriously, he duked to someone he didn't know?

Dunno. I think we have to find the other one. Bodyguard should reveal asap so we can count them out. Please don't let it be cheeki.

I think if bodyguard is anyone currently cleared they shouldn't reveal. If one of the three wants to claim bodyguard, that's great, then a counterclaim would help. But otherwise, no reason, they're already cleared.

cheekimonk

04-27-2015, 12:33 PM

How so?

There's not a doubt in my head that EF is wolf. He may have passed that camo to another wolf, but anything he says can't be trusted.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:34 PM

So if someone can pass me the camo vest and keep me alive through a duking, that can get us a scan tonight, barring a brutal. Apart from that I think we have to assume I will get duked, giving us a sure ID of one wolf, or brutaled, meaning we simply picked right.

I think at this point EF has to reveal who he passed the camo to. If I don't get the vest, then one of those two people is bad, we can safely say.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:35 PM

All villagers need to pass their items to Autumn for the time being. We need to know what we have to work with.

Every villager duking ought to solve that.

D,you know what. I still like my Bug & Eagle work. There's not actually anything that discounts that right?
I got the feeling that Bug was trying to get himself lynched today which would suggest he's the brutal.

You can book it that Grover is the bodyguard as well.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:36 PM

OOps-

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:38 PM

I am not sure between the three of them. I am voting EF in part just because if he's a wolf and we let him get away with shooting one of us, I would feel really dumb.

I had hoped someone would give a big hint this weekend. Now that we know Brit was the cultist, we know that the wolves wouldn't have known if he was the seer or not. But voted EF, which would be a crazy bold move at that point if they're both wolves, so I tend to assume they are on separate teams. So first level suggestion would be vote one of them and then we'll know either way.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:39 PM

At this point I'm fairly willing to ignore the idea that Shoveler could be bad. He's not cleared, no, but I think we're too close to be able to afford going down that path.

So it has to be Bug, Grover or EF right now. All info on the table.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:41 PM

STUTTERING SAM-- You are Sam, and you have a stutter that is so bad, you cannot speak well enough to use the Duke ability. But you do not know this. To your knowledge, you will appear to be a regular Duke. Your attempt to duke will nullify all other dukings that day, and the original lynch target will still be lynched.

If we don't have the camo suit or bullhorn and we don't have the ammo clip then we're in a bad way I suspect.

I'm pretty sure about Eagle being a wolf fwiw.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:43 PM

If nothing else it makes it 2 duke baddies and 2 hunter baddies.

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 12:43 PM

Bullhorn-- This item stops any Duking if you're not Duking, and allows your Duking to be the one which happens if you are. One time use.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:46 PM

My guess is Eagle passed the suit to Britrock to buy trust. Which means it's been randomed to someone. Cheeki if you have got it give it to Autumn.

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 12:46 PM

Well good job autumn..

Yes EF has got to be a wolf, I think we figure out if the other wolf is bug or grover.. and use the bullhorn tonight..

Hopefully we have that.

Lynch EF tomorrow, he cant duke.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:47 PM

Absolutely Everything I've posted today still holds true in the New World Order.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:48 PM

My guess is Eagle passed the suit to Britrock to buy trust. Which means it's been randomed to someone. Cheeki if you have got it give it to Autumn.

Actually that can't be true. If he had you wouldn't have shot him. Unless ....

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:49 PM

Sorry Autumn I've got to go, for most of the time left.

Vote Eagle

I'll be back.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:50 PM

Well good job autumn..

Yes EF has got to be a wolf, I think we figure out if the other wolf is bug or grover.. and use the bullhorn tonight..

Hopefully we have that.

Lynch EF tomorrow, he cant duke.

Well, if we lynch EF today (assumign he's bad) we'll either get him or one of the others will duke, in which case we'll know which one is bad, and their duke will be gone tomorrow.

If we vote Grover or Bug today, if we have the right one they'll duke it to me, and if we have the wrong one they may duke it anyway or let us mislynch. I'm not sure I see the advantage to doing them first.

MrBug708

04-27-2015, 12:52 PM

I got your back autumn. Don't worry :)

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 12:52 PM

Well, if we lynch EF today (assumign he's bad) we'll either get him or one of the others will duke, in which case we'll know which one is bad, and their duke will be gone tomorrow.

If we vote Grover or Bug today, if we have the right one they'll duke it to me, and if we have the wrong one they may duke it anyway or let us mislynch. I'm not sure I see the advantage to doing them first.

let me run some numbers.. you do the same.. see what we come up with for mislynch scenarios today.. and whether we can win without the BG if we end up wrong today.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:52 PM

I guess it makes more sense to me to lynch EF today. He can't duke out of it, and he can't be killed by the ammo clip. If a duke wolf wants to reveal himself saving EF, good for us. And if a villager has the ammo clip they can possibly take out a wolf tomorrow and save us.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:54 PM

Shoveler makes a good point about Eagle not being able to duke. But I don't like it. If we have the bull horn we can use that one night and do the all the dukes duke thing tomorrow. Unless Stuttering Sam gets killed in the interim.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:55 PM

My spider sense is tingling about Shoveler, dude.

Autumn

04-27-2015, 12:55 PM

If a villager has the ammo clip they should remain silent about it. The one way this could go sideways is if the wolves kill you and get a hold of that.

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 12:56 PM

I think the problem is that if they duke, they duke to autumn and we dont have protection against that.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:56 PM

If we lynch the brutal I'm really going to hate picking between Shoveler and Bug. I know the right play will be Bug but it's going to be another Jackal vs Rum scenario.

Narcizo

04-27-2015, 12:59 PM

If we all duke then Stuttering Sam will nullify all dukings causing the original one to get got.

Chief - can we all duke to the actual lynch candidate?

Shoveler

04-27-2015, 01:00 PM

Terrible idea..

Every duke dies in that situation.. and what if the duke wolf is stuttering sam?