It's Hammer Time | A Texas Rangers Franchise Presented By Scott

[Scott]

2010 AL West Preview: Offenses

This is the third in a series of articles that aim to compare the four teams that have been assembled to compete for the 2010 title of AL West champion. The first article revealed that the Mariners and Rangers have done the best work in preparing starting rotations for 2010. The second article predicted that the Athletics will have the top bullpen.

The third installment will address the hitters of the AL West. As with the pitching previews, I used CHONE projections to compare the Angels, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers. In 2009, CHONE's on-base-plus-slugging (OPS) projections had an average error rate of 8.3 percent for players with at least 250 plate appearances. CHONE whiffed on a few in 2009 (did anyone expect Ben Zobrist to OPS .948?), but, overall, the system did an amazing job of predicting hitter performances last season.

Provided in the tables for each team in the AL West are the thirteen position players who are most likely to accumulate the most at-bats in 2010,assuming everyone stays healthy. The ages and projected plate appearances (PA), on-base percentages (OBP), slugging (SLG), and OPS are provided for each player.





The Angels scored 883 runs in 2009 behind career years from Kendry Morales (.924 OPS), Torii Hunter (.871 OPS), Chone Figgins (.789 OPS), Erick Aybar (.776 OPS) and Maicer Izturis (.794 OPS). Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero departed via free agency, but CHONE expects Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood to mostly replace their offensive production. But CHONE doesn't foresee a repeat of the .326 BABIP that the Angels enjoyed in 2009. If the playing time and CHONE projections listed in the table prove to be prescient, then the Angels slash line will drop from .285/.350/.441 in 2009 to .270/.335/.430 in 2010. That doesn't sound like a huge change, but it will likely mean an almost 100-run drop in scoring if the Angels are league average in hitting with runners in scoring position.






The Athletics combined for a .262/.328/.397 hitting line in 2009. That's pretty close to what the average major league shortstop did in 2009 (.274/.329/.391). The team's big off-season additions, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Coco Crisp, Jake Fox, and Gabe Gross, seem unlikely to provide much of a boost to the team's hitting in 2010. Highly regarded prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor are likely to spend time in the majors this season, but CHONE doesn't expect either to blow the roof off the place in their rookie seasons (.239/.318/.402 for Carter and .272/.324/.437 for Taylor). Assuming the at-bats and hitting projections break down as indicated in the table above, Oakland fans should brace themselves for another season of dismal hitting (.256/.333/.402).





While the Athletics' offense was among the worst in the American League in 2009, the Mariners' offense was among the worst of the past decade. The team scored 640 runs in 2009, which was the fewest that an American League team had scored since the hapless Tigers of 2003. As a team, the Mariners hit .258/.314/.402. The team's .314 OBP was the lowest in the majors, which is quite a feat given that they were competing for the title of worst team OBP with 14 National League teams whose numbers were dragged down by the .179 OBP that was posted by pitchers.

Russell Branyan (.251/.347/.520) and Adrian Beltre (.265/.304/.379) have departed, but their replacements (Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins, Ryan Garko and Casey Kotchman) should provide an upgrade for the team's offense. Though the numbers in the chart don't reveal it, Garko's abilities against left-handed pitchers (.313/.392/.495 career-wise) should result in more production from the first base position than is suggested by CHONE's projection.

Likewise, Eric Byrnes is unlikely to post a .661 OPS given that he will play predominantly against left-handers, whom he has batted a robust .284/.345/.511 against during his career. Assuming the at-bats work out as predicted in the chart above and the team features platoons at first base and the outfield, the team's batting line is projected to be .268/.338/.405. That will put the team at the back of the American League pack, but it will be a significant step up from their 2009 performance.





CHONE projects that eight hitters in the AL West will OPS over .800 in 2010. Five of those players are Rangers. The Angels had five such players in 2009 and scored 883 runs. The Red Sox also had five and scored 872 runs. The Rays had five, too, and scored 802 runs. Last year, only three Rangers had OPS'd over 800 -- Michael Young at .892, Nelson Cruz at .856 and Ian Kinsler at .814.

As a team, the Rangers hit .260/.320/.445 in 2009. If the playing time estimates and hitting projections shown above are accurate, then the Rangers will improve to .269/.332/.440 in 2010. Some of the Rangers' improvement is expected to derive the team bettering the .299 BABIP it had last season, which was among the lowest in the American League. Other anticipated improvements include an upgrade at DH and better seasons from Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis.


SUMMING UP

To estimate how many runs the four teams in the AL West are likely to score if the hitting projections prove out, I used OBP, SLG, and runs scored for each of the American League teams from the past three seasons to create an equation that estimates runs scored using team OBP and slugging. The equation was then used to estimate the run production for the Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers. As noted in the table below, the Rangers and Angels figure to have the best offenses in the division. The Rangers are projected to score approximately 80 runs more than the Mariners and Athletics.


Copyright © 2008, Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat. All rights reserved. Baseball Time in Arlington is in no way affiliated with, condoned or given any notice by the Texas Rangers baseball team; similarly, Baseball Time in Arlington is in no way associated with the Hicks Sports Group or any businesses related to the Rangers.

[Scott]

Bad News for Rangers Young Pitcher

The right-hander felt pain in his right elbow after throwing Tuesday. The Rangers will send the results of the MRI to Dr. Lewis Yocum for a second opinion. Poveda, who was signed in 2004, spent the majority of 2009 at Frisco. He went 11-5 in 22 starts for the Roughriders. Poveda was expected to start the season at Triple-A Oklahoma City. If he does indeed need surgery, Poveda will miss the entire 2010-2011 season.

[Scott]

Rangers Part Way With Greene

02/25/10 2:02 PM EST
SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The Rangers have voided the contract of infielder Khalil Greene, who is dealing with personal issues regarding social anxiety disorder and did not report to camp.

The Rangers made the move on Thursday after multiple conversations with the Commissioner's Office, the Major League Baseball Players Association and Greene's agent, Mike Milchin.

"It was done without any issues from any parties," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "This is not about the contract, this is about a player getting well."

The Rangers signed Greene to a one-year, $750,000 contract in the offseason to be their utility infielder. Greene was with the Cardinals last season but twice went on the disabled list because of a social anxiety disorder.

The Rangers believed that Greene had the disorder under control, and he was in the Phoenix area last week preparing to report to camp. But the Rangers announced on Monday that Greene was not going to report, and now they have decided to void the contract.

"It was just the cleanest of options," Daniels said. "He's not in a position to [report]. We've agreed to void the contract and maintain a dialogue as we go down the road. This allowed [us]to have continued conversations without being encumbered by the contract situation."

The Rangers have not ruled out the possibility of bringing in Greene at some point if he is able to return to the game. But they are proceeding with the idea that he will not be back.

The Rangers are looking for a utility infielder who can play shortstop. The two guys in camp who have the best chance of filling that role are Ray Olmedo and Joaquin Arias. The Rangers will also look outside the organization, although if they make a move in that direction, it probably won't be until the end of camp.

© 2001-2010 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.

[Scott]

Don't worry guys, this one isn't gonna die..It will start as soon as the OS Full Minors are out

[briand23]

Great... Im excited to watch this one... question: did you do the "write ups" underneath the CHONE projections yourself... Or did you use another source... either way great stuff... Scouting and Analysis is home in baseball.

[Scott]

Quote: Originally Posted by briand23

Great... Im excited to watch this one... question: did you do the "write ups" underneath the CHONE projections yourself... Or did you use another source... either way great stuff... Scouting and Analysis is home in baseball.

I used another source.

[acanipe12]

Looking real good man! I have a Rangers chise going on IGN. If you want, you should check it out.

http://boards.ign.com/mlb_sony_ce/b5966/190069864/p1

Either way, nice to see another die-hard Rangers fan around.

[Mr. Franchise]

Hope you don't mind if I kind of copy your beginning layout.