When the Thunder rampaged over San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals, it felt a bit like the league had found its championship matchup for the next three or four seasons. The Spurs and Celtics were aging, the Lakers had peaked again as a second-tier team, Derrick Rose was set to miss most of 2012-13 with a torn ACL, and a bunch of would-be contenders — Memphis, Dallas, Denver, New York, the Clippers — were a notch or two below with no clear path for improvement.
Flash forward a few months, and the league looks very different. Three stars, including perhaps the league’s second-best player in Dwight Howard, changed teams in one trade, with the Lakers also nabbing an All-Star point guard. The Celtics reloaded despite little cap flexibility, while Brooklyn joined the Knicks as starry teams with big ambitions. It was a noisy summer. Let’s take a step back and look at how things changed, in the short- and long-term, amid the NBA’s championship hierarchy.
The Real Title Contenders
Miami Heat
Perhaps the strongest repeat favorite since the heyday of Shaq-Kobe. It took a potentially franchise-destroying injury to Chris Bosh at nearly the worst possible time, but the Heat discovered in May and June that their version of small ball, with LeBron James at power forward, should serve as the foundation of the team’s identity rather than as a change-of-pace tactic at the start of the second and fourth quarters. The alignment change, coupled with James’s new comfort as a post-up threat, took Miami’s offense up another level without compromising the defense in a significant way. Miami let this development guide its offseason, signing two perimeter threats (Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis) and precisely zero traditional big men guaranteed to be part of the team’s rotation in high-leverage moments.
There are challenges to come. Erik Spoelstra will play trial-and-error with lineups, and Miami cannot risk overtaxing James in the regular season. That might mean less small ball than the Heat end up using in the playoffs, and some banging against power forwards for Shane Battier and Lewis. Dwyane Wade’s knee will probably act up again, and the Heat may not have the luxury of going through the last two rounds of the playoffs without facing a team equipped to punish them on the block. But they enter the season as the clear favorite.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The big steps are done, but sometimes the smaller steps are the hardest — the subtleties of defensive positioning, lineup choices, and balance on both ends of the floor. The Thunder made progress on all fronts during the playoffs, when their offense nearly set records, the team remembered James Harden was actually on the floor in crunch time, Scott Brooks leaned more (but not enough) on his most productive small lineups, and the team’s aggressive defense at least limited the unstoppable Spurs. Getting Eric Maynor back should help more than Maynor’s individual numbers might suggest, since he allows Brooks to play small lineups featuring four threatening perimeter players instead of just two or three. The other young guys are only going to get better, and Serge Ibaka has shown glimpses of morphing into a more multidimensional pick-and-roll player.
But Miami overwhelmed this defense in the Finals. It has to be better, and if that improvement comes from playing Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha more, the Thunder won’t dethrone the champs.
Los Angeles Lakers
A team whose offense failed them early last season and whose defense failed them late has added the game’s very best defender and perhaps the NBA’s single greatest offensive force of the last decade-plus. There are questions, of course. There is no off-the-dribble dynamism among the backups for Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant, and Nash is just about a 30-minute-per-game player at this point. The Lakers are counting heavily on Jordan Hill and Antawn Jamison, and perhaps Earl Clark at some point, to hold the fort when the stars sit, and it’s unclear if they can do so on either end. Bryant and Nash, both iron men, are well into the stage of their careers in which age- and injury-related declines are scary possibilities. Pau Gasol isn’t far behind. Fit and chemistry might be uneven as the stars learn the team’s new hybrid Princeton offense. Bryant, a gifted cutter and passer, must dial back his shot selection and tendency to stop the ball. How they respond to Oklahoma City’s dynamic small lineups in a potential conference finals matchup is unclear.
But holy hell: These four stars should be able to be on the court together for 35 minutes per night in high-stakes playoffs games, with all but Nash capable of logging many more than that. And Mike Brown’s staff should be able to stagger minutes so that no single star is left to carry too heavy a burden on bench units. They don’t get the favorite’s perch right away, not even in their own conference, but a team that had declined to second-tier status should happily accept something like co-favorite in the West.
San Antonio Spurs
It’s fine if you want to slide them into the next tier. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are old, and neither is quite capable of serving as a full-time go-to scoring centerpiece against dialed-in defenses. The Western Conference Finals had the feel of one team figuring out how to beat the other, in part because the brilliant Ginobili, the Spurs’ best all-around player, couldn’t score big on a night-to-night basis.
But Duncan and Ginobili stay productive every year, and the Spurs could find enough incremental internal improvements to offset any Ginobili/Duncan drop-off. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter should get even better, with Leonard perhaps developing into a top-shelf defender and a wing more capable of working off the dribble when the ball swings his way. Boris Diaw has a full season to help Gregg Popovich find the right balance in his big-man rotation, and Stephen Jackson is around to shoot and present small-ball options should that ideal big-man rotation never emerge. Nando de Colo and Patty Mills provide healthy competition for Gary Neal and could help Popovich limit Ginobili’s minutes.
And again: This team outscored opponents by an unthinkable 15 points per 100 possessions over 30-plus games last season, per NBA.com’s stats database. That kind of dominance earns some preseason respect, even if the Thunder left the Spurs’ defense and rotation in tatters.
An Outside Chance
Boston Celtics
Boston knows it went about as far as it could with the league’s best defense and an offense that ranked 24th in points per possession. Score at that rate, and it’s very hard to beat just one top team four times in seven tries — even when that top team is missing Bosh and has yet to figure out the best way to optimize its talents. Boston overcame its own injury issues, but those setbacks didn’t have the same impact of Derrick Rose’s ACL tear and Bosh missing the first four games of the conference finals.
Jason Terry is a borderline elite offensive player, the rare guard who combines star-level long-range shooting and off-the-bounce creativity. Avery Bradley will be back soon, and Boston’s starting lineup with Bradley in Ray Allen’s place scored at a league-best level. Courtney Lee is a solid two-way player who is money from the corners, and Jeff Green, bloated contract and all, might help in the right matchups.
This is a team built to face Miami — to play varied small lineups, have Green share LeBron-guarding duty with Paul Pierce, and hope its offense can score enough to give it a chance to win late. But it’s an old team, one vulnerable to injuries, and one that must prove there is anything better than a league-average offense here. If that’s all there is, they’ll still need some luck to upset Miami.
Dreaming of an outside Chance
Memphis Grizzlies
It shouldn’t feel over, but it almost does, especially with the Lakers passing Memphis in the race for the league’s scariest two-man frontcourt behemoth. The Zach Randolph/Marc Gasol tandem is still here, and if Randolph’s knee is healthy, we may finally get to see what Memphis can do with its four-man core all near 100 percent. The team outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions last season — double its overall mark — when Randolph and Rudy Gay played together, a sign that the two can mesh just fine. They’ll play top-10 defense and force a ton of turnovers, and if Darrell Arthur recovers from his latest leg injury, he and Marreese Speights form a very nice backup big-man duo.
But this shooting-challenged team, starved for spacing, will miss O.J. Mayo’s off-ball movement and semi-threatening 3-point shot. It’s unclear if any of the backup guard brigade, both new and old, is ready to play heavy productive minutes. If Randolph can only return to something like 90 percent of his magical 2011 playoff form, Memphis needs Gay to step up as a passer and defender. The Grizz’s first-round loss to the Clippers last season was discouraging on both fronts.
Los Angeles Clippers
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin make a top-five offense almost on their own, but the Clippers need to address two major needs at once (defense and backup small forward) The two-guard situation remains dicey, and it’s fair to wonder if the Clips missed a chance to slot Lee there in order to placate Paul with the Jamal Crawford/Chauncey Billups pairing. Both can be productive players, especially Billups, but they’ll have trouble defending the best wings among the West’s elite (Bryant, Ginobili, Harden) and will cut into Eric Bledsoe’s time.
But that’s not necessarily a fatal weakness. An uncertain big-man rotation beyond Griffin would be. The Griffin/DeAndre Jordan combination was mostly a confused mess on defense last season. Lamar Odom holds promise as a two-way backup other teams might actually have to guard, but it’s unclear where he is mentally and physically, and whether he and Griffin can form a credible defensive front line if Jordan falters again.
Exciting Upside, Too Many Questions
New York Knicks
It isn’t just that Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire didn’t work well together. It’s also that the Knicks scored only 98.5 points per 100 possessions — roughly equivalent to 25th in the NBA — when those two shared the floor with Tyson Chandler, and that the number actually got worse when that trio played with Jeremy Lin, per NBA.com.
The Knicks have to repair this frontcourt fit issue before even considering loftier expectations, and they’d have had a much better chance had they nabbed Jason Kidd as an organizer even just two seasons ago. But Kidd’s game is in sharp decline, and the Knicks’ other key signings are either ancient or league-average types who don’t really move the needle. The good news: This team defended at a top-10 level all season, including under Mike D’Antoni, and sported a point differential roughly equivalent to that of a 50-win club. Depth on the wing should give Mike Woodson a chance to play Anthony more at power forward, where he can torch slower defenders and fares better on defense. This should be a solid playoff team, but it’s hard to see more.
Brooklyn Nets
There are folks around the league actually projecting this team to miss the playoffs. It’s a minority view, and one with which I disagree, but it’s out there. We have no idea if this capped-out-in-perpetuity bunch can stop anyone, or if it will get reliable bench play from someone outside C.J. Watson and MarShon Brooks.
This team will score, and the size of Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace gives the Nets the ability to play some smallish lineups. But a Brook Lopez–Kris Humphries frontcourt is a minus defensively, and minus defensive frontcourts generally don’t get you deep into the playoffs. They really needed to get Dwight Howard this summer and they didn't. The first step they can take is select a new coach who can get the most out of soft big man Brook Lopez.
Philadelphia 76ers
Andrew Bynum + shooters + two creative guards should be a reliable recipe for a top-10 NBA offense, a nice tonic for a team that couldn’t score after a hot start last season. But the pouty Bynum, an uneven defender, has never been the centerpiece of a team, and the Jrue Holiday/Evan Turner combination has always worked with another perimeter security blanket — Iguodala or Lou Williams, both elsewhere — around to create shots. Holiday and Turner both have nice potential, but neither has shown anything like lead-dog playmaking ability — something the Sixers will still need, even with Bynum dominating down low.
Spacing might be an issue for the starting lineup, and the front line is overstocked with center types now that Elton Brand’s departure leaves Thaddeus Young and the center-ish Lavoy Allen as the only true non-rookie power forwards on the roster. Young is making noise about possibly playing some small forward, but the Sixers have long thrived with him as an energetic small-ball four. Doug Collins and his staff will find some of the right answers, but it’s hard to see a contender here. The real mystery comes in the next couple of offseasons, when cap holds for Holiday and then Turner could take up most of Philly’s projected cap space — assuming they bring back Bynum at the max.