Don't know how much OS cares about this kind of stuff, but here's a small comparison of Miami and LSU's defenses from last year. Comparing the offenses wouldn't do a whole lot considering LSU practically has a brand new person at nearly every spot from QB to OC to even the place kicker if you consider that the offensive side of special teams.
Spoiler
Yards per play allowed
Miami 12th in the nation at 4.77
LSU 28th at 5.07
Scoring defense
LSU 14th at 18.9 ppg
Miami 28th at 21.0 ppg
Plays defended per game
LSU 16th 65.4
Miami 126th 80.1
Points per play
Miami 12th 0.271
LSU 26th 0.301
Average Ranking of Scoring Offense Faced
LSU 58.42
Miami 62.75
Points Allowed per Drive That Reaches At Least Your 40
Miami 24th 3.91
LSU 43rd 4.19
Opponent Red Zone Attempts Per Game
Both Tied at 30th at 2.8
Opponent Red Zone Scores(FGs and TD) Per Game
LSU 38th 2.3
Miami 43rd 2.4
The reason I ever looked these stats up is because of multiple things. First, I saw so many LSU fans on the various sites I go to talking about how "elite" their defense was last year and how improved it will be this year. I knew it was a pretty good defense last year from watching their games, but elite is not something I would have described it as. Second, FootballOutsiders ranked their defense the 35th most efficient defense in the nation while Miami's was ranked 14th. I thought Miami had a great defense, but the offense left them to dry too many times and they never really could reach top 10 status.
Looking all of this up confirms what I thought and what FootballOutsiders says. Miami's defense was much more efficient than LSU's in nearly every stat. Though Miami saw 2-3 more possessions per game on defense they didn't allow teams to get any extra RZ attempts or scores. They barely gave up any more points. They gave up points at a better rate as the points/play shows. If Miami's offense had been more consistent and not gone into so many 3 and out lulls the defense probably would have seen <70 snaps a game and been near elite status. If they had faced 65.4 snaps a game like LSU they would have only given up 17.72 points a game if all else remained the same. If LSU had faced 80.1 snaps a game their defense goes up to allowing 24.11 points a game.
Now I know what some may be thinking, what about 3rd down rates. Didn't Miami struggle there while LSU was pretty good? Wouldn't that be a possible reason that Miami faced more plays? Teams could kill them with 1000 small cuts. You're not wrong for wondering about that, but let's look at it together.
LSU was 43rd in the nation at 36.59%
Miami was 64th at 38.92%
You may be thinking, "Aha!" I'd say you are incorrect and here is why:
Firstly, I am a numbers guy, that may be obvious from this post. I understand that when you compare a 43th ranking to a 64th ranking you think that is significantly different. I wouldn't blame you for thinking that. Let's actually analyze the number deeper, though.
LSU faced 13.7 3rd downs per game on defense. They gave up 5.0 conversions a game. Miami's numbers were 16.9 and 6.6. That means out of the 65.4 plays LSU saw on defense per game, 20% of them were 3rd downs. Out of Miami's 80.1 plays per game they saw, 21% of them were 3rd downs. Slight difference there, but teams weren't being forced to 3rd down as much against LSU. It was an insignificant amount, though.
Now, if you were to look at how many 3rd down conversions LSU would have given up at their rate if they had faced 16.9 3rd down attempts per game you'd see they would have allowed 6.2. If Miami only faced 13.7 3rd down attempts per game they would have given up 5.3 conversions per game. As you see here the differences are .4 and .3 conversions per game. Not really material, both are under half a conversion per game.
If you are still thinking those numbers don't say whether or not Miami gave up more drives that killed them slowly then remember the fact that Miami gave up less points per trip inside the 40. You realize that Miami actually did a better job of stopping teams from reaching the end zone once they got past midfield. Another efficiency metric pointing their way.
So, what does all of that in-depth looking say? That FootballOutsiders and my thoughts seem to be pretty true. Miami was a more efficient defense. Practically every stat shows they were. Despite their offense being very fast paced and the average LSU 3 and out taking off more clock than a Miami scoring drive and that causing them to see 2 to 3 more possessions per game they were still the better defense. It shows they were actually close to elite top 10 numbers. Closer than many probably realize. It also shows that LSU does have a good defense, but they are definitely further away from being elite with their production on the field last year. Coach Eaux's philosophy of killing the clock and that limiting the snaps his defense saw inflated some of their rankings slightly. They are still a good defense and I am not saying otherwise, but it is clear that when comparing the two teams' performances last year, Miami was clearly the more efficient defense.
I wish I could compare the two teams' offenses, but like I said before LSU doesn't return anything more than 2 OL and a TE as starters. New QB who has been with the team for Fall Camp, new starting RBs, new youth movement at WR that looks promising, 2 guys getting their chance at OL from the bench plus a JUCO. They simply return many more contributors on defense to where the comparison for the defense can be made, but not for the offenses.
I think it will be an exiting game. I think that if the defenses play like they did last year, but a bit more improved as is expected then I think Miami's defense being a bit more efficient combined with their offense returning most starters that they should be able to pull it off. Things can change quickly. If Burrow turns out to be a stud and all of LSU's questions like their OL, RBs, WR corp, and OC all are good and clicking then they can definitely take the game. I just find it hard to imagine that the offense will be gelling in the 1st game of the year. Burrow has been with the team a very short amount and he is an unknown with no real game experience. The RBs are unproven and more than likely not Guice or Fornette level. I think the OL could be potentially a bigger key than Burrow. If they are able to open holes up consistently and LSU can run on Miami then that will be dangerous. That takes pressure off of a lot of the unknowns and makes the gameplan much simpler to execute.
I 'm just excited college football is back and I am excited to finally see how LSU's offense does and not wonder about all of their questions anymore. I'm also very excited to see how much Miami's offense improved in just consistency alone.
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“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
08-28-2018, 11:26 PM
