I agree, I am not sure what to think on this one. I think as others have stated, you have a HIGHER % to get instant commit if you are 1st on their board, than if you are not. So the theory is, try to get first on their board before offering. If you cant climb that high without it, then by all means offer, but at least give it a week or two before you do offer so that the ones that you are 2, 3, or 4 on their list. Maybe you can get to be #1 and then offer. But you also run the risk or getting jumped if you dont offer.
But like you i have always offered ALL recruits before the season. This is something i am still trying to understand. It seems that the reward isnt always worth the risk.