NCAA's exclusivity ends in a year or two according to wiki

[Cusefan]

The Real question is this: is EA making more money by paying for exclusivity or would they make more money by not paying which would allow a open Market for NCAA? I think NCAA is so good right now they could easily beat a 2K College football game so why not allow the competition.

I would be willing to bet that 2K would not even try to make a college football game because they do not have a fan following for NCAA. I could see them getting back to NFL but it would take them at least 2 years to create a decent NCAA game and thats with a dedicated staff. Take Two is only going to allow a sure thing and NCAA is far from that for 2k.

[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cusefan

The Real question is this: is EA making more money by paying for exclusivity or would they make more money by not paying which would allow a open Market for NCAA? I think NCAA is so good right now they could easily beat a 2K College football game so why not allow the competition. I would be willing to bet that 2K would not even try to make a college football game because they do not have a fan following for NCAA. I could see them getting back to NFL but it would take them at least 2 years to create a decent NCAA game and thats with a dedicated staff. Take Two is only going to allow a sure thing and NCAA is far from that for 2k.

The NFL market really isn't that sure of a thing either. Sure, 2k5 was a great game, but not many casual fans know much or care about 2k5 or even 2k8. Ask anybody who plays video games and Madden is what they think of in football. I think this coming year could be a great time for 2k to attack the college scene.

It all starts with the NBA. Since Elite is not coming out, a lot of EA buyers are forced to get 2k11 or stick with Live 10. I would assume a big majority of fans are going to get their NBA fix with 2k11. Once they see the quality of 2k11, they'll remember the 2k name.

Then when 2k announces they are competing with EA in the college football market, people will remember how great 2k11 was and will actually look into NCAAFB 2k12 more seriously.

Then, if 2k12 does pretty well, that opens the market up for an NFL game too if EA doesn't get tat license deal extended.

This whole hope/ prediction thingy relies on their being a lot of NBA/ NCAAFB fans out there...

We can all hope, its what keeps us sane.

[DonkeyJote]

As far as career modes, outside of the two basketball series, when has 2k had great career modes? NFL 2k5's Franchise wan't very good, AP2k8 didn't even have a Franchise, and Mlb's franchise modes have been the worst in sports gaming (they've made strides in other areas, but every year their franchise mode is broken with freezes and crippling flaws).

In the end of the day, I don't think EA needs to renew the deal. I think even if 2k bought the right to make a game (because remember, you have to pay for the rights, exclusive or not), it would take several cycles until is was comparable in quality or sales to EA's offering. I seriously doubt it would be profitable for 2k to get into it. NCAA (since 2005) has done between 29 and 38 percent of it's big brother Madden's sales. College Football just isn't as big as the NFL. And 2k's football games haven't done as much as EA's in the past anyway. In 2005, 2k's NFL game still did just 58% of Madden's sales, and that was with a $20 price tag. All Pro only did 12% of that year's Madden, but that wasn't an NFL game.

But let's go with with 2k5's 58%. So say a hypothetical 2k college football game would do about 38% of what their NFL game would do. That puts them at about 1.08M in sales. I'm not so sure that's enough to make them want to do that.

[Cryolemon]

Quote: Originally Posted by DonkeyJote

NFL 2k5's Franchise wan't very good

Wasn't it? It did have problems for sure, but one thing it did have which Madden has yet to replicate is a working IR.

[KG]

Quote: Originally Posted by Buckeyes_Doc

Why do you think they would give us the best CFB of all-time? NCAA Football blew other games away before the deal, including 2k. And other companies stopped making college football games even before the deal took place, because NCAA football was that much better and had the market. Do you know someone at 2k to support your claim that they would happily take over the rights?

Quote: Originally Posted by Rocky

Not true. They stopped making it because they had to pull developers from that series to help then NFL series. No coincidence that when they stopped developing NCAA2K, the NFL2K series took off. In this case, it would be the same developers who are worked on NFL2K5/APF2K8 that would be working on the college game. I think alot of people would agree that those games have superior gameplay than EA games right now. Besides, it's crazy to compare a game that came out in 2003 to a game that is coming out in 2011 or 2012. NCAA2K3 used the NFL2K2 engine which was ported over from the Dreamcast. Likewise, its not about not having faith in EA's NCAA Football series. It's about having competition. That would make EA football better too.

Exactly. Yeah 2K3 sucked but that was 7 yrs ago. I think all the bells & whistles would be lacking and that's about it. It would take them some time to get in all the stadiums, art, and that stuff but the competition would be interesting and overall better for us.

[dley]

I think NCAA College Football 2k3 failed because it didnt have that great of a dynasty compared to NCAA Football and the 2K engine isnt that great for QB runs.

At the time I liked CF 2K3, but i knew it wasnt better than NFL 2k3 or EA's NCAA FB. I love NFL 2K5 and feel its better than any current and past gen Madden and def better than any current gen NCAA FB. If, that's a big IF because i think EA will renew the license, 2k can make a new College FB game i think it would be great.

I thought All-Pro Football 2K8 was good too.

[DonkeyJote]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cryolemon

Wasn't it? It did have problems for sure, but one thing it did have which Madden has yet to replicate is a working IR.

Yeah, but they didn't have working trades. I don't know how many times I saw Julius Peppars traded to Green Bay for Brett Favre.

At the end of the day, despite the way that people on these boards feel, 2k's football offering wasn't nearly as popular as EA's. Even with a $20 price tag (compared to Madden's $50), 2k5 only did 58% of Madden's unit sales. A College Football game doing about 58% of EA's offering just isn't likely to be profitable. And 58% would probably only be achievable by about year 3. They'd be building almost from scratch. All-Pro only sold 400,000 units, 12% of what Madden did and only 40% of what NCAA did. Backbreaker probably hasn't even broken 100,000. 2k would have to take some serious lumps financially to start up a College Football, and the end profit probably isn't there. Honestly, a big reason why NCAA is probably still around is because EA can cut costs on it by doing a lot of the development for it side by side with Madden. 2k wouldn't be able to do that. I just don't see how a college football game would be profitable for 2k. An NFL game, sure. Those can make money. But College sports is much harder, hence why the only collegiate sports game left is EA's College Football game.

[Cryolemon]

Quote: Originally Posted by DonkeyJote

Yeah, but they didn't have working trades. I don't know how many times I saw Julius Peppars traded to Green Bay for Brett Favre. At the end of the day, despite the way that people on these boards feel, 2k's football offering wasn't nearly as popular as EA's. Even with a $20 price tag (compared to Madden's $50), 2k5 only did 58% of Madden's unit sales. A College Football game doing about 58% of EA's offering just isn't likely to be profitable. And 58% would probably only be achievable by about year 3. They'd be building almost from scratch. All-Pro only sold 400,000 units, 12% of what Madden did and only 40% of what NCAA did. Backbreaker probably hasn't even broken 100,000. 2k would have to take some serious lumps financially to start up a College Football, and the end profit probably isn't there. Honestly, a big reason why NCAA is probably still around is because EA can cut costs on it by doing a lot of the development for it side by side with Madden. 2k wouldn't be able to do that. I just don't see how a college football game would be profitable for 2k. An NFL game, sure. Those can make money. But College sports is much harder, hence why the only collegiate sports game left is EA's College Football game.

Without knowing the ins and outs of 2k's business model I think it's speculation at best whether they can afford it. Whether it would be profitable or not is an easier question, but it might not need to be profitable in year one if they are willing to take a risk that it will get better in year two and three (which seems possible, given the general economic situation, and that a game would naturally improve, especially if there was a competition).

This is ignoring the fact that a game might only need to sell a small percentage of NCAA 12 to be profitable, if it was made relatively cheaply.