MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

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  • WaitTilNextYear
    Go Cubs Go
    • Mar 2013
    • 16830

    #5206
    Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

    Originally posted by CameRoN0407
    I don't add each level up and consider it one year. For the more advanced bats (Baez and Buxton), they could play at A+ and AA. They are two different levels with two very different levels of pitching. They could crush A+ pitching, and not AA pitching as well. What does adding the full year show us? Certainly not how they play in each level. Also, if he is struggling in a pitcher friendly league, the NL is not going to be fun for him.

    But his slow start has occurred longer than any other. So that is a factor that is scaring me more than any other year.
    But, if you're discounting A+ stats on the basis that a guy might do better at lower levels, what if the guy actually did better in AA anyway?? AA is supposed to be tougher. So, still not feeling that argument. However you want to keep re-slicing it, Baez was playing everyday last year and had good stats the entire way through minus a short slump after being first promoted. There's no correlation between number of PA and performance for him. The data just don't agree with that claim.

    He ran into junkballers and nibblers in AAA this year, guys with some semblance of pitching acumen, and it's been a learning process to say the least because he needed to learn that taking 4 pitches is not a bad thing.
    Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

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    • AC
      Win the East
      • Sep 2010
      • 14951

      #5207
      Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

      Originally posted by CameRoN0407
      They are two different levels with two very different levels of pitching.
      Proof?

      But his slow start has occurred longer than any other. So that is a factor that is scaring me more than any other year.
      Random distribution.

      Then why did you use 500 PAs of Baez as an example?
      Because you were saying he didn't play a full season. Which he did. That's completely irrelevant to the BABIP discussion.

      Then I guess we can't use BABIP, Because niether have had enough balls in play to be reliable.
      No, that means we have to appropriately regress them. Baez won't be affected as much by regression, whereas Buxton will.

      He has the most PAs he's ever had at a single level.
      So you're sticking to this huh?

      I'm talking begining of the year. Pretty obvious he was going to fall in rankings.
      Wow, it's almost like new evidence changes opinions and that preseason rankings are meaningless right now, lol.

      I'm not missing your point, I'm debating it by using his current year, which you seem to have ignored.
      "I'm not missing your point, but (misses my point)."

      I'm saying his current year is fine. For the third time.

      I will say Soler is the better right now because he isn't a pitcher. But that is the only reason.
      Soler is...

      -a position player
      -performing at a high level
      -an excellent athlete without Meyer's mechanics concerns
      -a player of much higher ceiling

      Where is this argument getting us? We are nearly thru our second page, I think we have both made our points, and should stop clogging the thread. Neither is going to persuade the other, and Baez is only gonna be traded for pitching, if at all anyways.
      I'm not going to stop arguing until we've actually reached a stalemate or a resolution, because then basically my time has been wasted. You just aren't understanding my argument but you think you are. You're ignoring like half of what I say and then wondering why I keep making the same points. And also misusing the statistics you're basing your arguments on.

      Also, and yes, this was part of my plan, you've asked for a stalemate twice now and the fact that we've debated this much along with projections minus bias show that Baez and Buxton probably hold similar value. This, combined with your admittal of Soler>Meyer and my building upon that, show that yeah, the trade I posted originally was pretty decent.
      "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

      Comment

      • AC
        Win the East
        • Sep 2010
        • 14951

        #5208
        Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

        Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
        But, if you're discounting A+ stats on the basis that a guy might do better at lower levels, what if the guy actually did better in AA anyway?? AA is supposed to be tougher. So, still not feeling that argument. However you want to keep re-slicing it, Baez was playing everyday last year and had good stats the entire way through minus a short slump after being first promoted. There's no correlation between number of PA and performance for him. The data just don't agree with that claim.

        He ran into junkballers and nibblers in AAA this year, guys with some semblance of pitching acumen, and it's been a learning process to say the least because he needed to learn that taking 4 pitches is not a bad thing.
        Originally posted by CameRoN0407
        I'm suggesting I'd rather see that players production at each level that two levels in one year. It better shows you how that player is doing at a particular level, than two levels in one year.
        You guys really need to read this link. Maybe if Cam actually starts reading my posts, he will too.

        Projecting Hitting Prospects’ MLB Primes

        My good friend wrote this. This shows EXACTLY WHAT CAM IS LOOKING FOR. It allows for a level by level analysis. It shows that Baez has outperformed every level and even his current year, he's performing at a completely adequate level. If his career continued on this year's trajectory, then he will basically be the 2014 version of Ian Desmond. If 2014 Ian Desmond is Baez's low point, his off year, he's a pretty *** **** solid prospect now isn't he?
        "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

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        • WaitTilNextYear
          Go Cubs Go
          • Mar 2013
          • 16830

          #5209
          Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

          Originally posted by CameRoN0407
          I'm suggesting I'd rather see that players production at each level that two levels in one year. It better shows you how that player is doing at a particular level, than two levels in one year.
          So, then, do you actually discern a statistically significant difference between Baez at A+ and Baez at AA last year based on 97 a PA difference between each stint? Mother of all small sample sizes, eh?

          Baez looks awfully similar at both levels last year to these eyes. If anything, I repeat myself here, he did better as he advanced. That is not due to "having less plate appearances." His games were coming with the same frequency in both leagues. If anything your "PA negatively correlates to production" argument would logically result in Baez doing worse as the season went along and his PAs piled up, right?

          Personally, I would attribute Baez' slightly weaker performance in A+ being due to the well-documented pitcher-friendliness of the Florida State League vs the neutral-ness of the Southern League rather than having 97 more plate appearances at the level.
          Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

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          • AC
            Win the East
            • Sep 2010
            • 14951

            #5210
            Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

            WTNY, the pitcher friendliness is accounted for. wRC+ is weighted runs created PLUS. A "+" next to a stat indicates that it's displayed as a percentage of the league average, adjusted to 100, but it's adjusted to the environment the player played in. Similar to, say, xFIP-. One of the many features of fangraphs.
            "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

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            • CameRoN0407
              It's a New England Thing
              • Oct 2012
              • 3328

              #5211
              Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

              Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
              But, if you're discounting A+ stats on the basis that a guy might do better at lower levels, what if the guy actually did better in AA anyway?? AA is supposed to be tougher. So, still not feeling that argument. However you want to keep re-slicing it, Baez was playing everyday last year and had good stats the entire way through minus a short slump after being first promoted. There's no correlation between number of PA and performance for him. The data just don't agree with that claim.

              He ran into junkballers and nibblers in AAA this year, guys with some semblance of pitching acumen, and it's been a learning process to say the least because he needed to learn that taking 4 pitches is not a bad thing.
              I like being able to disect stats level by level, not year by year with various levels mixed in.

              Originally posted by AC
              You guys really need to read this link. Maybe if Cam actually starts reading my posts, he will too.

              Projecting Hitting Prospects’ MLB Primes

              My good friend wrote this. This shows EXACTLY WHAT CAM IS LOOKING FOR. It allows for a level by level analysis. It shows that Baez has outperformed every level and even his current year, he's performing at a completely adequate level. If his career continued on this year's trajectory, then he will basically be the 2014 version of Ian Desmond. If 2014 Ian Desmond is Baez's low point, his off year, he's a pretty *** **** solid prospect now isn't he?
              Originally posted by article
              4. There is no regression for BABIP as it is impossible to tell if it needs to be regressed or not due to such deviation in skill in a given league. There may be some true talent .400+ BABIP’s in the minors.
              May he be talking about Buxton?

              I like this article because it practically solves both our problems. I know this could've been avoided if I went back two pages ago and read the article then.

              The trade is not BAD bad, but isn't something I like. It just doesn't make sense to me for two teams to trade their top prospects to each other, when both are in their own league, or VIP (Very Important Prospects) as I like to call it.

              Originally posted by AC
              WTNY, the pitcher friendliness is accounted for. wRC+ is weighted runs created PLUS. A "+" next to a stat indicates that it's displayed as a percentage of the league average, adjusted to 100, but it's adjusted to the environment the player played in. Similar to, say, xFIP-. One of the many features of fangraphs.
              I used to like Baseball-Reference. Then I found Fangraphs.
              Last edited by CameRoN0407; 07-17-2014, 09:18 PM.
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              • AC
                Win the East
                • Sep 2010
                • 14951

                #5212
                Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                Originally posted by CameRoN0407
                May he be talking about Buxton?
                I'm not saying Buxton's not a true talent .400 BABIP, I'm saying that we can't operate as such that he is. Thus, we should lean towards the more reliable sample of Baez.

                The guy isn't going for realism so who cares if it's prospect for prospect?
                "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

                Comment

                • WaitTilNextYear
                  Go Cubs Go
                  • Mar 2013
                  • 16830

                  #5213
                  Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                  Originally posted by AC
                  WTNY, the pitcher friendliness is accounted for. wRC+ is weighted runs created PLUS. A "+" next to a stat indicates that it's displayed as a percentage of the league average, adjusted to 100, but it's adjusted to the environment the player played in. Similar to, say, xFIP-. One of the many features of fangraphs.
                  The problem with that is there are different A+ leagues and they play differently. The wRC+ is not based on the FSL only, but the entire advanced A level. Cal League =/= FSL =/= Carolina League. I don't like those "league weighted" stats for MiLB.

                  My point is that Baez's performance at A+ and AA (if even significant, which I doubt) had absolutely nothing to do with him collecting more plate appearances at one level vs another. Basically, the "Baez does worse when given more plate appearances at a level" is 100% made up/false. That's my point.
                  Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

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                  • CameRoN0407
                    It's a New England Thing
                    • Oct 2012
                    • 3328

                    #5214
                    Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                    Originally posted by AC
                    I'm not saying Buxton's not a true talent .400 BABIP, I'm saying that we can't operate as such that he is. Thus, we should lean towards the more reliable sample of Baez.

                    The guy isn't going for realism so who cares if it's prospect for prospect?
                    That's why I said we wait until Buxton gets more advanced than A+.
                    Red Sox: 2018 World Series Champions!!!
                    Patriots: 2018 Super Bowl Champions!!!

                    Team USA
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                    Patriots
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                    • AC
                      Win the East
                      • Sep 2010
                      • 14951

                      #5215
                      Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                      Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                      The wRC+ is not based on the FSL only, but the entire advanced A level.
                      I don't think this is the case.

                      Originally posted by CameRoN0407
                      That's why I said we wait until Buxton gets more advanced than A+.
                      I don't particularly want to make OP wait.
                      "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

                      Comment

                      • CameRoN0407
                        It's a New England Thing
                        • Oct 2012
                        • 3328

                        #5216
                        MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                        Originally posted by AC
                        I don't particularly want to make OP wait.


                        I meant to continue the debate. Is the OP even here, or did we scare him away? lol.
                        Last edited by CameRoN0407; 07-17-2014, 10:25 PM.
                        Red Sox: 2018 World Series Champions!!!
                        Patriots: 2018 Super Bowl Champions!!!

                        Team USA
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                        Patriots
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                        • hampshirestags
                          Pro
                          • May 2014
                          • 500

                          #5217
                          Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                          Originally posted by CameRoN0407
                          I meant to continue the debate. Is the OP even here, or did we scare him away? lol.
                          Good value debate regardless if the OP is around or not. This thread gets read by folks that will never post a question. Debates like this not only help determine value for Baez but give some info on how player values are determined overall (educated guess).
                          "for love of the game" - B. Chapel

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                          • AC
                            Win the East
                            • Sep 2010
                            • 14951

                            #5218
                            Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                            What's the consensus value of Tulo with a marginal amount of salary being eaten? High A, Mid A, high B, low B is the spreadsheet but I'm interested in hearing the thread's opinions.

                            Same question for CarGo, who's spreadsheet value is Mid A, Low A, high B, low B. That seems high, honestly.
                            "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

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                            • KBLover
                              Hall Of Fame
                              • Aug 2009
                              • 12172

                              #5219
                              Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                              Originally posted by AC
                              What's the consensus value of Tulo with a marginal amount of salary being eaten? High A, Mid A, high B, low B is the spreadsheet but I'm interested in hearing the thread's opinions.

                              Same question for CarGo, who's spreadsheet value is Mid A, Low A, high B, low B. That seems high, honestly.

                              I thought that was a bit high for Carlos Gonzalez as well, though if you play him in CF (not sure why he's in LF with 88 Fielding and 86 Reaction with 76 Speed - OSFM v2), then he could be worth that value or closer to it.

                              Seems like he was rated based on last year (which is looking like it might have been a career or at least the top end of his range type of year?). This year, he's not close to that (granted this might be a bottom-of-the-range year for him).

                              A/A-/B + OF roster filler might be what I would offer and if they took it, I wouldn't feel bad about the trade.

                              Especially with how bad he (and Tulo, but he's a top-end SS, so it might be more reasonable for him) and the team (.354) are playing in my franchise and I'd be offering a team like that prospects to rebuild with.

                              But I'm a person that usually values performance and ratings strictly, especially since I'm going to be playing with fictionals in future years (which, of course, won't be on the spreadsheet, and half the Marlins roster isn't on there either so...I might be the worst person to comment LOL)
                              Last edited by KBLover; 07-18-2014, 10:32 AM.
                              "Some people call it butterflies, but to him, it probably feels like pterodactyls in his stomach." --Plesac in MLB18

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                              • hampshirestags
                                Pro
                                • May 2014
                                • 500

                                #5220
                                Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                                Originally posted by AC
                                What's the consensus value of Tulo with a marginal amount of salary being eaten? High A, Mid A, high B, low B is the spreadsheet but I'm interested in hearing the thread's opinions.

                                Same question for CarGo, who's spreadsheet value is Mid A, Low A, high B, low B. That seems high, honestly.
                                I think their value would differ from club to club. NYY would sell the farm (a small one but you could have your pick) for either one while PIT wouldn't give either a second look. 2 A's and 1 B minimum for each, the levels could be dependent on the 4th grade (injury history might make the last low B a high C).

                                I don't think the teams willing to take on the bulk of the deal for either would be concerned with a marginal offset. Are we talking international bonus slot #2 or 20% of the contract type of marginal?
                                "for love of the game" - B. Chapel

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