Re: MLB 15 The Show: What needs to change in order for you to purchase
That's not even far off from where it should be. Contact% on pitches outside the zone averages around 65%. So in a perfect world, of those 32 pitches, 11 would result in misses. That's 21 other pitches to account for. I don't know what the league-average BABIP is on pitches outside the zone, but since the regular BABIP is about .300, let's just say it is .250, which is certainly higher than the actual number. That would lead to about 16 outs on balls in play, actually higher than your number.
I could complicate matters by accounting for foul balls (not counted in hits OR outs), and I did not even properly account for strikeouts, since I dont know how many of those chased pitches were for strike 3... Doing either of these things would only bring your numbers even closer in line with MLB numbers, as there are foul balls hidden within those 21 pitches, and strikeouts hidden within those 11.
Your issue seems to be that you are underestimating just how incorrect the discipline numbers in The Show were, in previous years, and the contrast with this year is making you feel like something is wrong, when there's no evidence to suggest as such, and there is a whole lot of evidence that suggests discipline is the most accurate it has ever been (and also that it is still falling below actual MLB numbers, which goes against your entire hypothesis).
To really make any relevant analysis, though, I would need a more complete set of data, including the total number of pitches per game, the number of chased pitches that fair contact was made on (which is given to you on the pitch analysis screen), and the number of strikeouts on chased pitches (which you would have to count). I know for a fact that foul ball rates are off, which makes it hard to statistically account for them without knowing actual numbers.
That's not even far off from where it should be. Contact% on pitches outside the zone averages around 65%. So in a perfect world, of those 32 pitches, 11 would result in misses. That's 21 other pitches to account for. I don't know what the league-average BABIP is on pitches outside the zone, but since the regular BABIP is about .300, let's just say it is .250, which is certainly higher than the actual number. That would lead to about 16 outs on balls in play, actually higher than your number.
I could complicate matters by accounting for foul balls (not counted in hits OR outs), and I did not even properly account for strikeouts, since I dont know how many of those chased pitches were for strike 3... Doing either of these things would only bring your numbers even closer in line with MLB numbers, as there are foul balls hidden within those 21 pitches, and strikeouts hidden within those 11.
Your issue seems to be that you are underestimating just how incorrect the discipline numbers in The Show were, in previous years, and the contrast with this year is making you feel like something is wrong, when there's no evidence to suggest as such, and there is a whole lot of evidence that suggests discipline is the most accurate it has ever been (and also that it is still falling below actual MLB numbers, which goes against your entire hypothesis).
To really make any relevant analysis, though, I would need a more complete set of data, including the total number of pitches per game, the number of chased pitches that fair contact was made on (which is given to you on the pitch analysis screen), and the number of strikeouts on chased pitches (which you would have to count). I know for a fact that foul ball rates are off, which makes it hard to statistically account for them without knowing actual numbers.
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