MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

[CBoller1331]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

my understanding is he's not a catcher anymore... if that's wrong, I completely agree I misvalued him entirely - was considering him as a poor defensive outfielder.

The Cubs played him in the outfield to get his bat to the big leagues for the playoff push last year. Since he was very bad (at best) in the outfield, the Cubs planned on letting him catch 30-40 games this year before he got hurt.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Trout first taste of the big he had a wRC+ of 87. Harper had 121 an Mxcutchen was a 122. He's seen as a better player by talent evaluators than Schwarber and Conforto. Who are two good examples of advanced college bats going through theor system quickly

To add another superstar, Machado had a wRC+ of only 97 his first season getting to the show. Arenado had a 77

This is a losing argument for you. lol. Nobody in their right mind sees Benintendi as a superstar; maybe you are interpreting Top 15 prospect = superstar for some reason? I wouldn't call Schwarber or Conforto superstars either, and that's if I agreed that Benintendi is even better than they are (which I don't).

Schwarber (AA): .320/.438/.579 188 wRC+
Conforto (AA): .312/.396/.506 160 wRC+
Benintendi (AA): .286/.346/.491 129 wRC+

Mike Trout was younger than Benintendi is now when he was putting up 160-170 wRC+ in the majors. Harper was even younger than that. Machado was 19. You are grossly abusing the numbers here, sir.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

This is a losing argument for you. lol. Nobody in their right mind sees Benintendi as a superstar; maybe you are interpreting Top 15 prospect = superstar for some reason? I wouldn't call Schwarber or Conforto superstars either, and that's if I agreed that Benintendi is even better than they are (which I don't).

Schwarber (AA): .320/.438/.579 188 wRC+
Conforto (AA): .312/.396/.506 160 wRC+
Benintendi (AA): .286/.346/.491 129 wRC+

Mike Trout was younger than Benintendi is now when he was putting up 160-170 wRC+ in the majors. Harper was even younger than that. Machado was 19. You are grossly abusing the numbers here, sir.

We agree to disagree. Benintendi also provides value with his legs as a 20+ steal guy, has a tiny k rate and walks more than he ks.

I used the Trout example because you did, and you gave him a much higher number than he really had. No one can predict a superstar. If they could we wouldn't have busts at the rate we do high in the draft. I personally think Benintendi can be a star. I see him as an AJ Pollock type. You don't and that's totally okay. I do think we both agree he isn't being traded for a guy who only throws like 60 innings per season

[NDAlum]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

That's kind of a steal for CLE. That said, why does CLE need an even better starting rotation than they have? Its pretty ridiculous without adding another arm!

Well a 4th arm in a playoff race never hurts plus with a thin organization it makes sense for them to get another quality starter in their rotation. I wasn't going to re-sign Cashner because next season will likely be a continued rebuild of the Padres. I'll have Kemp/Upton on the books for big money so I'll continue to try and draft/develop my talent.

In the NL West with LAD/SF...I don't see my team competing for a few years. Time to get rid of the mistakes of the previous management.

[Sgexpat]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Well a 4th arm in a playoff race never hurts plus with a thin organization it makes sense for them to get another quality starter in their rotation. I wasn't going to re-sign Cashner because next season will likely be a continued rebuild of the Padres. I'll have Kemp/Upton on the books for big money so I'll continue to try and draft/develop my talent.

In the NL West with LAD/SF...I don't see my team competing for a few years. Time to get rid of the mistakes of the previous management.

Ah got it - I misread you that you are playing CLE. I completely agree Padres you have to re-load on prospects and go from there. That's a tough, tough rebuild.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

We agree to disagree. Benintendi also provides value with his legs as a 20+ steal guy, has a tiny k rate and walks more than he ks.

I used the Trout example because you did, and you gave him a much higher number than he really had. No one can predict a superstar. If they could we wouldn't have busts at the rate we do high in the draft. I personally think Benintendi can be a star. I see him as an AJ Pollock type. You don't and that's totally okay. I do think we both agree he isn't being traded for a guy who only throws like 60 innings per season

Bolded part #1: Not in AA he doesn't.

Bolded part #2: Yes.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Bolded part #1: Not in AA he doesn't.

Bolded part #2: Yes.

I used his whole 2016. But yes let's act like 24 k to 18 walks is bad and a 13.4% k rate is bad

[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Let's get one thing straight, Andrew Benintendi is not going to be a "superstar." Some of this talk is spiraling out of control as Red Sox prospects tend to for some reason. Nor do I think an ace is the only possible return. Benintendi is good 60 FV type of prospect with a very good hit tool, but let's not get carried away.

This is a losing argument for you. lol. Nobody in their right mind sees Benintendi as a superstar; maybe you are interpreting Top 15 prospect = superstar for some reason? I wouldn't call Schwarber or Conforto superstars either, and that's if I agreed that Benintendi is even better than they are (which I don't).

Schwarber (AA): .320/.438/.579 188 wRC+
Conforto (AA): .312/.396/.506 160 wRC+
Benintendi (AA): .286/.346/.491 129 wRC+

Mike Trout was younger than Benintendi is now when he was putting up 160-170 wRC+ in the majors. Harper was even younger than that. Machado was 19. You are grossly abusing the numbers here, sir.

Theres really no need to be so dismissive. Bentendi is a really really good prospect. Don't put him out of context with generational guys. No use in debating the semantics of a superstar but his minor league numbers suggest a peak of around a 140 wRC+ with plus tools and his grades are very good too.

Conforto and Schwarber were both a year older than Benintendi for those levels. Age/level is very important. Benintendi's age/level would suggest a ceiling of a 120 wRC+ if you solely looked at his AA plate appearances, which is awesome, but his BABIP is down 50 points from his other levels.

Projecting for a 109 wRC+ as a 21 year old is really really hard to do. That's one of the highest numbers I've ever seen from a minor leaguer. AJ Reed projects for a 96 right now. Buxton, 88. Crawford 85, Moncada 82 (at same age/level!), Dansby 83. Bregman is at 108, and that's, well... the second highest I've ever seen.

Yes I'm ignoring ZiPS, as I'm sure you can understand given my discussion with Szymborski in your thread.

I don't know what there isn't to love here. The numbers think he's a stud, the reports are all massively positive. He compares very well to his peers. If Urias graduates, I'd have no qualms ranking him as the best prospect in baseball. Bregman and De Leon right behind, but that's as strong a top three as I've seen in a while.

e: He hit a dinger tn so that wRC+ is going up at 3 AM

*another* e: I vaguely remember Bryant having a 130 wRC+ projection. He's also one of the greatest prospects ever, so. Schwarber was up pretty high too (not quite as high). This is good company. Greg Bird was and is still up there and he's similar in that he's way, way better than people realize. Looking this over, if you don't count Bird, Benintendi is the second highest projected prospect behind Josh Bell (a first baseman), and that might change by tomorrow. Ahead of guys like Castellanos, Polanco, Franco, Bregman, Pollock, Kipnis, Lucroy, Mauer. These things aren't gospel but they are the calculated mean outcome and that's the best we can estimate. It's fair to say that Benintendi is really really good.

[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

****, this thread really needs some new material.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Theres really no need to be so dismissive. Bentendi is a really really good prospect. Don't put him out of context with generational guys. No use in debating the semantics of a superstar but his minor league numbers suggest a peak of around a 140 wRC+ with plus tools and his grades are very good too.

I can go with good or very good or really good as adjectives to describe his play. And, yes, the word superstar means a lot when you're talking about trade value. When someone brings that word up, it's perfectly reasonable to remind everyone what a superstar really is. And Andrew Benintendi, it is not. He'll be more Kole Calhoun than Mike Trout.

Conforto and Schwarber were both a year older than Benintendi for those levels. Age/level is very important. Benintendi's age/level would suggest a ceiling of a 120 wRC+ if you solely looked at his AA plate appearances, which is awesome, but his BABIP is down 50 points from his other levels.

You say a year, I say a few months. 21 years and 11 months vs 22 years and 4 months is not a huge deal. Not enough to overcome the massive statistical edge Schwarber and Conforto had at that level over Benintendi. 30-60 points of wRC+. The only thing that puts Benintendi on the same planet as Schwarber is that Benintendi can be a solid defensive player. Schwarber's bat all day, every day.

Benintendi's BABIP being down probably means it was too high to begin with. I don't think there's any reason to suspect a guy with modest power and above average speed to sustain a .350+ BABIP like it was before in A ball.

Projecting for a 109 wRC+ as a 21 year old is really really hard to do. That's one of the highest numbers I've ever seen from a minor leaguer. AJ Reed projects for a 96 right now. Buxton, 88. Crawford 85, Moncada 82 (at same age/level!), Dansby 83. Bregman is at 108, and that's, well... the second highest I've ever seen.

No doubt it's very good, but I don't think there's an exhaustive list going back several years unless you've saved the spreadsheets each season. His 109 wRC+ is propped up by a lot of good hitting in A ball. Remember the projections are only a tool, not a prediction of what's going to occur. Let's not stretch the projections that far. If he comes up this year, I wouldn't be surprised at a 109 wRC+, but again my issue was granting him superstar status. A very important distinction for his value. Big difference between 60 FV (what I see) and 70 FV/75 FV (?) what you guys see.

Yes I'm ignoring ZiPS, as I'm sure you can understand given my discussion with Szymborski in your thread.

Ok.

I don't know what there isn't to love here. The numbers think he's a stud, the reports are all massively positive. He compares very well to his peers. If Urias graduates, I'd have no qualms ranking him as the best prospect in baseball. Bregman and De Leon right behind, but that's as strong a top three as I've seen in a while.

Ranking him best prospect in baseball (which no prospect source has done...nor even in the Top 10 yet) is more a testament to all the graduations than it is him as the second coming of some superstar. That Top 3 (Benintendi/Bregman/De Leon) is not as good as we've seen in recent years, imo. I'd take Bryant/Buxton/Giolito easily over that trio. And whatever it was the year before as well. And the year before...

Bottom line: nobody knows, but we're really stretching to label this consensus 55/60 FV guy in preseason as the best prospect in the game or future superstar after a really good run in high A and a good (but not amazing) start to AA.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I can go with good or very good or really good as adjectives to describe his play. And, yes, the word superstar means a lot when you're talking about trade value. When someone brings that word up, it's perfectly reasonable to remind everyone what a superstar really is. And Andrew Benintendi, it is not. He'll be more Kole Calhoun than Mike Trout.



You say a year, I say a few months. 21 years and 11 months vs 22 years and 4 months is not a huge deal. Not enough to overcome the massive statistical edge Schwarber and Conforto had at that level over Benintendi. 30-60 points of wRC+. The only thing that puts Benintendi on the same planet as Schwarber is that Benintendi can be a solid defensive player. Schwarber's bat all day, every day.

Benintendi's BABIP being down probably means it was too high to begin with. I don't think there's any reason to suspect a guy with modest power and above average speed to sustain a .350+ BABIP like it was before in A ball.



No doubt it's very good, but I don't think there's an exhaustive list going back several years unless you've saved the spreadsheets each season. His 109 wRC+ is propped up by a lot of good hitting in A ball. Remember the projections are only a tool, not a prediction of what's going to occur. Let's not stretch the projections that far. If he comes up this year, I wouldn't be surprised at a 109 wRC+, but again my issue was granting him superstar status. A very important distinction for his value. Big difference between 60 FV (what I see) and 70 FV/75 FV (?) what you guys see.



Ok.



Ranking him best prospect in baseball (which no prospect source has done...nor even in the Top 10 yet) is more a testament to all the graduations than it is him as the second coming of some superstar. That Top 3 (Benintendi/Bregman/De Leon) is not as good as we've seen in recent years, imo. I'd take Bryant/Buxton/Giolito easily over that trio. And whatever it was the year before as well. And the year before...

Bottom line: nobody knows, but we're really stretching to label this consensus 55/60 FV guy in preseason as the best prospect in the game or future superstar after a really good run in high A and a good (but not amazing) start to AA.

Keith Law has him at 6 so yeah people do have him that high. 2 of the 5 ahead of him have seen time in the bigs (Urias & Giolito). Preseason Dave Cameron had him as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system. I don't think weren't vastly over rating him. No one has thrown around a 70FV. Prospects rarely if ever get that. Although again Cameron lists 70 FV as his ceiling. There's a marked difference between a star an a 10 WAR player. I never said he would be Trout but Polanco, Pollock, or Yelich are within the realm of possibilities and they are star players in my eyes.

[cubsgocontinental23]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Keith Law has him at 6 so yeah people do have him that high. 2 of the 5 ahead of him have seen time in the bigs (Urias & Giolito). Preseason Dave Cameron had him as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system. I don't think weren't vastly over rating him. No one has thrown around a 70FV. Prospects rarely if ever get that. Although again Cameron lists 70 FV as his ceiling. There's a marked difference between a star an a 10 WAR player. I never said he would be Trout but Polanco, Pollock, or Yelich are within the realm of possibilities and they are star players in my eyes.

In no way is Christian Yelich a star player, he's not even the third best player on his own team, and honestly that is probably the best comp for him of those three guys.

[redsox4evur]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

In no way is Christian Yelich a star player, he's not even the third best player on his own team, and honestly that is probably the best comp for him of those three guys.

Really who is better outside of the 2 obvious ones? Dee Gordon, who got popped for steroids so we have to discount his production like we do with everyone else. Wei Yin Chin? I don't think so.


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[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Keith Law has him at 6 so yeah people do have him that high. 2 of the 5 ahead of him have seen time in the bigs (Urias & Giolito). Preseason Dave Cameron had him as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system. I don't think weren't vastly over rating him. No one has thrown around a 70FV. Prospects rarely if ever get that. Although again Cameron lists 70 FV as his ceiling. There's a marked difference between a star an a 10 WAR player. I never said he would be Trout but Polanco, Pollock, or Yelich are within the realm of possibilities and they are star players in my eyes.

Aside from this Benintendi thing that we've already agreed to disagree on, Dave Cameron is not a prospect hound anyway. He's sort of the lead writer at FG, but I've never really thought he's had good insights. If he does have one or two, it's more by virtue of his volume writing since he's written thousands of pieces there. That he hung a 70 FV ceiling on Benintendi (it'll be a cold day in hell) tells you all you really need to know about Cameron's prospect bonafides. The new prospect guy at FG is Eric Longenhagen, who apprenticed under Keith Law at ESPN. The turnover at FG as the 'prospect guy' has been a bit comical. Do they sign 1 year deals? lol. There was Hulet (who was pretty bad), then McDaniel (who is ok and working for Atlanta now I think), then Farnsworth (who was totally clueless), and now Longenhagen (reserving judgment). I like FG a lot for data and stats, but definitely not my go to for prospect stuff. Also not a big fan of Law's, although, he does seem relatively plugged in. Keith Law spends more time on his cooking recipes than on prospect watching these days it seems, lol, and gets most of his stuff 2nd hand (so do they all really).

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

In no way is Christian Yelich a star player, he's not even the third best player on his own team, and honestly that is probably the best comp for him of those three guys.

Yelich had a 4.4 WAR season at 22 and is on pace to be right about 5.0 this season. That's pretty darn good. Maybe not "star" but legit talent and top 30ish hitter in the league