MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Umm.. this wasn't a straight up trade.

Hoz is a top 10 first basemen, and a homegrown talent, who has already openly stated he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Royals. It would be a surprise to see him on the move. Not only that, but trading a younger pitcher with a under 4 career ERA who has shown flashes of being a solid #2 guy along with one of the better relievers in baseball is a bit much imo.

Yes, Archer is good. He's on a long term team friendly contract. He's also 4-7 with an almost 5 ERA right now. You don't give up Hoz+Ventura+Herrera for him. Why would a WS team gut their roster the next year for a guy who has given his word to re-sign, a hometown favorite, and someone who is arguably their best player? KC has proven by winning the WS that their pitching staff can get the job done even when they lack a true ace. Hoz's contract would cripple TB and they aren't contending in 1.5 years even with Hoz. If it aint broke don't fix it, let KC play this year out before you make any drastic changes at least.

.


WAR leaders at first from 2013- current http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
2013 was Hosmer's 3rd full season in the bigs, I decided not to start it in 2012 when Hosmer had a negative WAR so that wouldn't alter the math.


Hard to argue Hosmer as top 10 when hes behind a guy like Steve Pearce.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

You should evaluate based on some sort of pattern or average and not just look at an outlier. It's misleading to present Archer as a 5 WAR pitcher.

Yes. The point I was attempting to make is that Archer seems to keep getting better somehow every time he's mentioned in here, lol. I wasn't really commenting on any specific deal.

The fact is, while Chris Archer is not as bad as this season would suggest, he's not as good as his 5 WAR season last year would suggest either. His career BB and HR rates don't support 5 WAR type of campaigns. He has average command and has a history (going back to his prospect days with the Cubs at least) of some wildness. He's been a homer machine this year and although that 1.74 HR/9 certainly won't continue, a pitcher with just under 1 HR/9 over 637 career IP is most definitely not "best value in baseball" type material either.

I peg Chris Archer's true talent closer to 3 WAR. Basically his K-rate and HR-rate from last year and BB-rate from 2014 (or a tad higher) is what I think we can expect in the future.

Hosmer gets punished by FG defensive metrics, which is suppressing his overall fWAR (not sure how much I buy them, or at least the magnitude of them, anyway). Archer and Hosmer would have similar value if Archer weren't signed for longer. That extra team control does make Archer more valuable.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Yes. The point I was attempting to make is that Archer seems to keep getting better somehow every time he's mentioned in here, lol. I wasn't really commenting on any specific deal.

The fact is, while Chris Archer is not as bad as this season would suggest, he's not as good as his 5 WAR season last year would suggest either. His career BB and HR rates don't support 5 WAR type of campaigns. He has average command and has a history (going back to his prospect days with the Cubs at least) of some wildness. He's been a homer machine this year and although that 1.74 HR/9 certainly won't continue, a pitcher with just under 1 HR/9 over 637 career IP is most definitely not "best value in baseball" type material either.

I peg Chris Archer's true talent closer to 3 WAR. Basically his K-rate and HR-rate from last year and BB-rate from 2014 (or a tad higher) is what I think we can expect in the future.

Hosmer gets punished by FG defensive metrics, which is suppressing his overall fWAR (not sure how much I buy them, or at least the magnitude of them, anyway). Archer and Hosmer would have similar value if Archer weren't signed for longer. That extra team control does make Archer more valuable.

Thing is, myself and AC have shown how other pitcher have more value than Archer. I don't think he is a "darling" but he is very valuable because of the team friendly deal, and the fact that he is a darn good pitcher. All first basemen get hurt by defensive metrics, because it is frankly the easiest place to play out of the 8 positions (excluding pitcher). I don't see that much value in a first baseman that hits such a high percentage of ground balls. First basemen are often a position where you need to mash to have your bat play up. Having a GB% over 50 isn't a great place to be in a power position. Of the 28 qualified hitters at 1st on Fangraphs only Wil Myers and Travis Shaw have positive scored for fielding, and Shaw's comes from playing third. Basically all guys at first get knocked for fielding

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Yes. The point I was attempting to make is that Archer seems to keep getting better somehow every time he's mentioned in here, lol. I wasn't really commenting on any specific deal.

The fact is, while Chris Archer is not as bad as this season would suggest, he's not as good as his 5 WAR season last year would suggest either. His career BB and HR rates don't support 5 WAR type of campaigns. He has average command and has a history (going back to his prospect days with the Cubs at least) of some wildness. He's been a homer machine this year and although that 1.74 HR/9 certainly won't continue, a pitcher with just under 1 HR/9 over 637 career IP is most definitely not "best value in baseball" type material either.

I peg Chris Archer's true talent closer to 3 WAR. Basically his K-rate and HR-rate from last year and BB-rate from 2014 (or a tad higher) is what I think we can expect in the future.

Hosmer gets punished by FG defensive metrics, which is suppressing his overall fWAR (not sure how much I buy them, or at least the magnitude of them, anyway). Archer and Hosmer would have similar value if Archer weren't signed for longer. That extra team control does make Archer more valuable.

Even if you peg Archer as a 3 WAR player that would be a surplus value of 3*8*6=144-42.3(rest of his deal including 2016 and the 2 team options) so $101.7 million in surplus value.


If you see Hosmer as a 3 WAR player you get 3*8*2=48-8.2 (2016 salary) -11 (Conservative 2017 arbitration number) $28.8 million in surplus value


Ventura as a 2 WAR player would look like 2*8*6=96-44.2 (rest of his deal including 2016 and the 2 team options) so $51.8 million in surplus value


Herrara is around a 1WAR reliever so 1*8*2=16-2.55(2016 salary)- 3 (projected 2017 salary) so 10.45 million in surplus value.


All together that gets you Archer ($101.7) plus a non top 100 prospect for Hosmer ($28.8)+ Ventura($51.8)+ Herrara($10.45) which all the Royals combine for $91.05.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

While all the surplus value math is impressive, I'm not sure comparing pitchers to position players is all that fair. Pitchers are always going to be riskier, so the trick is of that projected surplus value, how much of it do you actually get? A guy goes on the shelf for TJ, you get zero WAR for a year and maybe 60% of the WAR you thought you were getting thereafter. Archer has been durable, but the point is this is all ideal stuff without any adjustments for risk, other factors etc..

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

While all the surplus value math is impressive, I'm not sure comparing pitchers to position players is all that fair. Pitchers are always going to be riskier, so the trick is of that projected surplus value, how much of it do you actually get? A guy goes on the shelf for TJ, you get zero WAR for a year and maybe 60% of the WAR you thought you were getting thereafter. Archer has been durable, but the point is this is all ideal stuff without any adjustments for risk, other factors etc..

I agree there is definitely risk, but if we go down that path wouldn't Ventura and Herrara have as much risk as Archer? What if Ventura blew his arm out, or gets moved to the pen and crushes his own value. These things are a bit of a crapshoot. 2/3rds of the value coming from the Royals is in the arms they are giving up in this deal.


Basically I think Hosmer would be worth like a 50ish ranked prospect by himself. The lack of team control is a very real actual concern. I think Archer could be packaged for a top-10 plus.

[AeyJ_23]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Okay so if i put off the Rays/Royals trade. How could the Royals get one of these guys

Braves
Julio Teheran
3-6 3.36 ERA 1.43 WHIP

A's
Sonny Gray
2-4 5.20 ERA 1.48 WHIP

Rich Hill
5-3 3.16 ERA 1.28 WHIP

Marlins
Jose Fernandez
4-2 2.32 ERA 1.13 WHIP

Twins
Phil Hughes (same division)
6-2 3.63 ERA 1.34 WHIP

[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Sorry for the delay guys. as I stated, I'm starting year 3 and looking to get rid of Kyle seager. Can't hit with him through two years and his defense is horrendous.

Here are his numbers from year two:
36/89/.279

What am I looking at value wise for him?

Other numbers would be a lot more helpful. Honestly mostly WAR, lol.

I don't think you can label a guy who achieved 5 fWAR in exactly one of his 4 MLB seasons so far (he ain't doing it this year obviously) as a "5 WAR pitcher".

I'm not sure why Archer is suddenly the darling of this thread (best pitching value in baseball?, c'mon son..anyone heard of Noah Syndergaard to name just one), but I think people are a bit high on him for a career 3.50 FIP pitcher who only strikes people out at an above average clip while his BB-rate and HR-rate are nothing special whatsoever.

You know I'm not the one arguing for Archer here but an 88 xFIP- on such a cheap contract is 100% more valuable than a 2.6 true talent WAR/600 1B, irrespective of injury discount.

Hosmer is worth like $35m next two years which is reasonable but I think Archer is worth like, what, $22m this year playing to projections, and probably like $30ish next year? So you'd have to discount like a third of Archer's value over the next two years, and then there's like 5 more cheap years. You'd have to heavily, heavily discount, and even with a year and a half of TJS he's still a lot more valuable than Hosmer. Hosmer's not fantastic.

[CBoller1331]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Okay so if i put off the Rays/Royals trade. How could the Royals get one of these guys

Braves
Julio Teheran
3-6 3.36 ERA 1.43 WHIP

A's
Sonny Gray
2-4 5.20 ERA 1.48 WHIP

Rich Hill
5-3 3.16 ERA 1.28 WHIP

Marlins
Jose Fernandez
4-2 2.32 ERA 1.13 WHIP

Twins
Phil Hughes (same division)
6-2 3.63 ERA 1.34 WHIP

No chance at Fernandez. Hughes also unlikely as he isnt good and is in the same division.

Im also not really sure if they would put together a package for Teheran. Im not really sure the Braves would really be a great partner as they have already said they want to get a middle of the order type bat for Teheran.

I think you could possibly make a package around Zimmer for Gray, but don't anyone else in the Royals system that the A's would want.

Best bet would be to go for Hill, especially since he's playing well. You could probably get a way with a couple of C-prospects.

[k_mac]

MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Okay so if i put off the Rays/Royals trade. How could the Royals get one of these guys



Braves

Julio Teheran

3-6 3.36 ERA 1.43 WHIP



A's

Sonny Gray

2-4 5.20 ERA 1.48 WHIP



Rich Hill

5-3 3.16 ERA 1.28 WHIP



Marlins

Jose Fernandez

4-2 2.32 ERA 1.13 WHIP



Twins

Phil Hughes (same division)

6-2 3.63 ERA 1.34 WHIP

Would Mondesi + Zimmer + be enough for Teheran? Gray? I'm not so sure.

There's not enough talent in like 75% of the minor league systems in baseball to fairly trade for Jose Fernandez without gutting their major league team. The Royals don't have the pieces. Huge no.

Phil Hughes and Rich Hill are doable though.

Nolan Watson or Scott Blewett for Hill maybe? He's old and a rental but he's pitching well (without seeing advanced stats). Could probably be done for less.

Idk about Hughes, maybe start with Asche Russell?

[AeyJ_23]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

No chance at Fernandez. Hughes also unlikely as he isnt good and is in the same division.

Im also not really sure if they would put together a package for Teheran. Im not really sure the Braves would really be a great partner as they have already said they want to get a middle of the order type bat for Teheran.

I think you could possibly make a package around Zimmer for Gray, but don't anyone else in the Royals system that the A's would want.

Best bet would be to go for Hill, especially since he's playing well. You could probably get a way with a couple of C-prospects.

Would Mondesi + Zimmer + be enough for Teheran? Gray? I'm not so sure.

There's not enough talent in like 75% of the minor league systems in baseball to fairly trade for Jose Fernandez without gutting their major league team. The Royals don't have the pieces. Huge no.

Phil Hughes and Rich Hill are doable though.

Nolan Watson or Scott Blewett for Hill maybe? He's old and a rental but he's pitching well (without seeing advanced stats). Could probably be done for less.

Idk about Hughes, maybe start with Asche Russell?

Think I'll look into Rich Hill due to the Royals limited resources.

Edit: Gray or Teheran completely out of reach ?

Does (RHP) Miguel Almonte, (OF) Bubba Starling or (OF) Reymond Fuentes add anything of value ? (Not for Hill deal but for anything else)

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Think I'll look into Rich Hill due to the Royals limited resources.

Edit: Gray or Teheran completely out of reach ?

Does (RHP) Miguel Almonte, (OF) Bubba Starling or (OF) Reymond Fuentes add anything of value ? (Not for Hill deal but for anything else)

With the lack of arms on the market I don't see how the Royals have enough for Gray or Teheran. Royals cashed most of their chips to win in 2016 and they did so it was worth it, but they are a back end farm system now. Zimmer has serious health questions so that hurts his trade value. When people ask about what a lotto ticket is, Bubba Starling is a perfect example l. All the tools, but a low chance it all comes together.

How is Hill pitching?

[AeyJ_23]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

With the lack of arms on the market I don't see how the Royals have enough for Gray or Teheran. Royals cashed most of their chips to win in 2016 and they did so it was worth it, but they are a back end farm system now. Zimmer has serious health questions so that hurts his trade value. When people ask about what a lotto ticket is, Bubba Starling is a perfect example l. All the tools, but a low chance it all comes together.

How is Hill pitching?

Was just making sure there wasn't any small chance to go get Gray or Teheran.

Yea Zimmer would've been a great center piece but is never healthy long enough, I may bring him to the bullpen if he's not dealt. (need help there)

Rich Hill is holding his own on a 5th place team

W-L 5-3 IP 82.2 BB 31 SO 86 ERA 3.16 WHIP 1.28 GS 12 H 75 R 33 ER 29 HR 9 HBP 2 WP 1 TBF 355
WAR 1.67 K/9 9.36 BB/9 3.38 HR/9 0.98 FIP 3.48 ERC 3.36 PFR 1.42

Edit: What would be the value of Michael Pineda from the Yankees
last year at 4.39 million then hits FA (no control after season)

W-L 8-2 IP 101.1 BB 17 SO 67 ERA 2.93 WHIP 1.00 GS 14 H 84 R 33 ER 33 HR 15 HBP 0 WP 0 TBF 397
WAR 1.35 K/9 5.95 BB/9 1.51 HR/9 1.33 FIP 4.11 ERC 2.57 PFR 0.83

Raul Mondesi + Miguel Almonte + Bubba Starling for Pineda

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Other numbers would be a lot more helpful. Honestly mostly WAR, lol

So now we have to include war in trade discussions? Lol can't just go off the numbers? Forget it

[Bard]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

So now we have to include war in trade discussions? Lol can't just go off the numbers? Forget it

It's right in the stats, not hard to find honestly it helps everyone way more than just stats.