Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Good feedback KBLover. I didn't think about power rating being an influence.

Question for anyone who can try now, (I'll try when I get home), can someone try to bunt but lower the power slider and maybe solid hits slider and see if that changes anything?

If we can find a "cause" then we can possibly submit to SDS for evaluation/correction.

If i get a few minutes around lunch time, i might can give this a go.

[countryboy]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

If i get a few minutes around lunch time, i might can give this a go.

Thanks man.

Like I said I'll be home around 7pm tonight to test myself.

[countryboy]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Lowering the power slider all the way as well as solid hits slider did nothing. See below


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Y_VovbIdAA" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


*please excuse the Cal Ripken Jr at-bat...I was messing with my dog.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Well i didn't have to time earlier today, but i just ran through over 200 bunts in practice mode.

What i did for this test was bump Deshields' Sac Bunting, and Drag bunting to 99 each. Then i turned his Power to 0.

I also dropped Human Power and Human Solid Hits to zero, and went into practice mode. I started out taking screenshots of the moment the ball was fielded, plus the pitch feedback. (I finally stopped the screenshots because the results were pretty consistent) i was going to gather specific numbers, but it seemed useless after a bit.

I used both sac bunt and drag bunt. I tried with no stick influence for 10-20 bunts, then left, right, down, and left/down.

The results were disappointing, as i saw no difference from before. Even with Power and Solid Hits at 0.

-Sac Bunts (squaring around after the pitcher begins his motion):

Most sac bunts, regardless of direction, left the bat somewhere between 45-55 mph, and were fielded by either a charging third baseman (he was also playing in, because of Deshields) , about 50-70 feet from home plate, or fielded by the first or second baseman near the edge of the infield dirt. A couple of balls hit the first base bag, then were fielded for the out. The hardest hit ball was 55mph.

A few sac bunts went toward the pitcher. When they did, for some reason they were hit only 25-30mph.

Mixed in very occasionally, were 30-ish mph bunts, and a few pop-ups caused by pitches up on the zone.

-Drag Bunts (squaring around at about the time the pitcher releases the ball):

Most of these bunts were much better. They seemed to average closer to 20mph, and when they did, were usually pretty good bunts. There were a few 30-50mph mixed in. I really didn't see any noticeable difference when pulling down the stick.

This seems to be the only way to get a realistic-looking bunt. And it can be useful for base hits. I have seen it a few times in Franchise.

Using Drag bunt in place of a Sac bunt is still not advisable though, because you cannot pull the bunt back if it is a bad pitch, once he begins his bunting motion. (At least i couldn't). So i don't know that this helps anything, other than for base-hits. (Make sure its a hitters count too)

The other (even more) disappointing thing was, i used Mazara after lowering his bunting to 0/0, and raising his power to 99/99. I also moved Human Power and Solid Hits to 10/10.

I performed the same tests with him, and if there was any difference at all, i couldn't distinguish it. His Sac bunts went the same directions as Deshields' -
about the same velocity, 45-55 mph. His drag bunts looked the same as well, averaging around 20mph in the same directions/locations.

Mazara isn't fast, but he had almost as much success bunting for base hits as my 99-rated bunter, due to the third baseman playing back.

Mazara might have fouled off/popped up a few more than Deshields, but that would take more testing to be sure. I dont know. But other than that (if anything), unfortunately the 99 Bunter performed just the same as the 0-rated bunter. Its almost as if bunt ratings are completely meaningless, at least for this test (unless they do foul off/pop up more on average than i could detect).

Once the 0-rated/99-rated bunts were down, anywhere in fair territory, they were indistinguishable, regardless of bunt attribute ratings.

I am curious to see if anyone sees anything differently. Next time i will gather hard data regardless, if needed. it just seemed fruitless this time, after seeing the same thing over and over.

I do have lots of fielding screenshots and hit speeds if anyone is interested.

[countryboy]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Yeah I'm sorry my video was so short and I only recorded 3 at-bats, but honestly it didn't feel any different than default sliders. I really didn't want to waste anymore time messing with it, because honestly it frustrated me.

[KBLover]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Lowering the power slider all the way as well as solid hits slider did nothing. See below

FeelsBadMan

*please excuse the Cal Ripken Jr at-bat...I was messing with my dog.

Excused. Dogs own so it's fine.

Most sac bunts, regardless of direction, left the bat somewhere between 45-55 mph, and were fielded by either a charging third baseman (he was also playing in, because of Deshields) , about 50-70 feet from home plate, or fielded by the first or second baseman near the edge of the infield dirt. A couple of balls hit the first base bag, then were fielded for the out. The hardest hit ball was 55mph.

A few sac bunts went toward the pitcher. When they did, for some reason they were hit only 25-30mph.

Mixed in very occasionally, were 30-ish mph bunts, and a few pop-ups caused by pitches up on the zone.

-Drag Bunts (squaring around at about the time the pitcher releases the ball):

Most of these bunts were much better. They seemed to average closer to 20mph, and when they did, were usually pretty good bunts. There were a few 30-50mph mixed in. I really didn't see any noticeable difference when pulling down the stick.

This seems to be the only way to get a realistic-looking bunt. And it can be useful for base hits. I have seen it a few times in Franchise.

FeelsBadMan again.


Guess there's nothing much we can do other than drag bunt or use whatever sac bunting method you use and hope for the best.

I do wonder why my pitchers have a much better time sac bunting when I use the same technique when ever I sac bunt. From the testing done above (thanks to you both, btw), it would seem that ratings and sliders don't matter.

[countryboy]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

FeelsBadMan



Excused. Dogs own so it's fine.








FeelsBadMan again.


Guess there's nothing much we can do other than drag bunt or use whatever sac bunting method you use and hope for the best.

I do wonder why my pitchers have a much better time sac bunting when I use the same technique when ever I sac bunt. From the testing done above (thanks to you both, btw), it would seem that ratings and sliders don't matter.

Yeah I don't understand it.

Hopefully the devs will acknowledge and look into it.

Frustrating

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Yeah it is frustrating.

However, i will just continue to sac bunt when the situation is right, since they usually throw to first anyway. I don't want to use drag bunt for this, since i want to be able to take a bad pitch.

I will just have to suspend my belief for a few seconds during sac bunts. Stats seem to come out ok at least.

I will still try to retro-track my own and CPU's success rate on bunts and post it here soon.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

I know we've already kind of decided that bunt ratings are basically meaningless, but just for giggles i did a little more digging into sac bunt success rates. This is more for those that find baseball stats fascinating than the Show... but i didn't know a better place to share it.

The numbers i previously provided only counted when the bunt was put down, and were basically over a single season, and from when i was playing other baseball games. These new numbers include bunt strikeouts, etc.

If you were to ask me about sac bunt success rate, i would have thought that it would stay at least fairly consistent through the years, even though we know the actual number of bunts has dropped off. But no...

I looked all the way back to 1973 (advent of DH) at sac bunt success %.

From 1973 to 1985 (13 years) the MLB sac bunt success rate was 81%.

-from 1974 to 1978, the AL actually bunted better than the NL. (in '77 the AL bunted 7% better than NL.)
-from 1979 to Present, the AL has only bunted (slightly) better than the NL in two other years (1983 and 1987)
-in 1984, the NL had a 94% success rate! AL-89% MLB-92%

From 1986 to 1999 (14 years) the MLB success rate immediately dropped to a fairly consistent 72% clip.

-MLB success rate dropped from 81% in 1985 to 72% in 1986.
-AL success rate dropped below 70% for the first time in 1993. It has only been above 70% four times since. (1997, 2000, 2001, 2002).

From 2000 to 2002, MLB success rate spiked to 79%, 78%, and 74%.

From 2003 to 2015 (13 years), MLB success rate immediately dropped to a consistent 67%.

-MLB success rate dropped from 74% in 2002, to 65% in 2003. It has never reached 70% again. (NL reached 70% in one year - 2009)

From 2016 to Present, MLB success rate has dropped to 62%.

-MLB success rate dropped from 67% in 2015, to 61% in 2016. (2017-62%)

-In 2017, a league's success rate dropped below 60% for the first time, when the American League was only successful on a paltry 56% of attempts. (AL in '16 and '18 - 60%.) NL doesn't look a whole lot better, at 62%, 65%, and 64%

I find the sudden era changes very interesting.

-The sudden drop from 81% in 1985 to 72% in 1986 and it stayed there 14 years.
-The sudden drop from 74% in 2002 to 65% in 2003 and it basically stayed there for the next 13 years.
-The sudden drop from 67% in 2015 to 61% in 2016, and has hovered around 62% since.

I would have bet that even with bunt attempts declining, that the success rate would stay at least somewhat consistent. But not drop 20% from 35 years ago.

I guess this shows that bunting truly HAS become a lost art, as teams move further and further away from giving up that out....

I don't know why I find things like this so fascinating...

[KBLover]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

I would have bet that even with bunt attempts declining, that the success rate would stay at least somewhat consistent. But not drop 20% from 35 years ago.

I guess this shows that bunting truly HAS become a lost art, as teams move further and further away from giving up that out....

Yeah - players probably don't get experience with it and those that might be good at it either get used for drag bunts or hardly use/practice the skill.

It might also be better defensed as you move through the eras. Better able to get the lead runner, but fielders/stronger infield arms, etc.

And I see I need to lower the target to 62%.

So far, I'm 1-for-1 since tracking it.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Yeah - players probably don't get experience with it and those that might be good at it either get used for drag bunts or hardly use/practice the skill.

It might also be better defensed as you move through the eras. Better able to get the lead runner, but fielders/stronger infield arms, etc.

And I see I need to lower the target to 62%.

So far, I'm 1-for-1 since tracking it.

My thoughts exactly. Crazy there can be that big of a drop over the years though.

I know there seems to be more bunting with two strikes now, even for pitchers, than there used to be. As of a couple of weeks ago there had been 131 two-strike bunt attempts by pitchers in 2018. Seems like 15-20 years ago even pitchers would usually swing away with two strikes. I remember Vin Scully questioning managers decisions from the booth, asking why they ever would take the bunt off with a runner on first and a pitcher at the plate. Maybe they followed his advice, which led to fewer GIDP, but more bunt-foul strikeouts and a much lower sac bunt success rate...

The oddest thing to me is how quickly each era changed. There was no gradual decline. It went from 82 to 72 basically over night. Then 72 to 67 overnight. Then 67 to 62 overnight. I think thats the strangest thing to me, no gradual decline.

As for the Show, No we can't lower the target to 62%, especially since this includes bunt strikeouts, not just bunts in play (although i doubt there would be many bunt strikeouts in the game.)

As for my tracking - keep in mind i don't bunt much in AL, (most of my guys can hit for power and aren't good bunters). That, coupled with the fact that many games have not been close enough to warrant bunting by either team (i.e. my pitchers suck). It has led to low bunt totals by either team.

I am 3 for 3 on sac bunts.
I am 1 for 3 on bunt-for hits.
The CPU is 1-1 on sac bunts
The CPU is 0-1 on bunt-for hits.

I would definitely like to see both teams get better success on drag bunts, but i need a bigger sample size to gauge either one.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see sac bunt success close to 80-90% in the game, even with rocket bunts (unless counting bunt strikeouts with pitchers), since they typically throw to first.

(My other franchises have more bunts but they are not my "official" franchise so i haven't tracked them quite as closely)

[KBLover]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Okay is that percentage per bunt attempt or per PA that happened to include a bunt attempt?

For example, I tried to bunt twice and then my guy got HBP. Is that no bunt attempt or two failed bunt attempts?

It seems kind of strange, for purposes of tracking bunt success, to say "I didn't bunt" because I did attempt it twice.

It's almost like saying if a guy swings and misses twice and gets hit by pitch that he didn't swing and miss.

I think in that light, I will count every bunt attempt I don't pull back.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

Okay is that percentage per bunt attempt or per PA that happened to include a bunt attempt?

For example, I tried to bunt twice and then my guy got HBP. Is that no bunt attempt or two failed bunt attempts?

It seems kind of strange, for purposes of tracking bunt success, to say "I didn't bunt" because I did attempt it twice.

It's almost like saying if a guy swings and misses twice and gets hit by pitch that he didn't swing and miss.

I think in that light, I will count every bunt attempt I don't pull back.

The bunt statistics i have found made it clear that SH statistics only include unsuccessful bunts made, and bunt strikeouts - and that failing to bunt early in the count, then swinging away, etc later are not included in Sac Bunt attempts.

I don't think they track bunt attempts/fouls by pitch anywhere. I am sure with some deep digging and the right resources it could be found, but no official tracking that i know of. So while i think its a good idea to count every bunt attempt not pulled back, i don't know anything to compare it to.

The first set of numbers i posted were from a single season (averageing out to approx 74% or so) and only included bunts that were actually put into play. And the second set includes many seasons and includes strikeouts (62%).

I would imagine that given today's climate and bunt strikeouts, if we eliminated bunt strikeouts from the second set, it would be closer to 70% success rate today on bunts that are actually put into play, but that is just a very rough guestimate. I think we are safe staying anywhere between 70-75% on bunt success as a target. (But my hypothesis is that i will see closer to 80-90% in the game).

Bunting just ain't what she used to be.

-----------------

On a note unrelated to bunting, but another interesting fact:

April of 2018 was the first full month in MLB history that ended with more strikeouts than hits. While the gap has narrowed since then, there are still more total strikeouts than total hits in 2018.

(About 1 out of 3 Plate Appearances in 2018 never even see the ball even put in play.)

So as we already know, bunting is not the only thing that has become a lost art.. maybe they should move all the fences back and extend the Green Monster to 60 feet, to make real hitting chic again!

[KBLover]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

The bunt statistics i have found made it clear that SH statistics only include unsuccessful bunts made, and bunt strikeouts - and that failing to bunt early in the count, then swinging away, etc later are not included in Sac Bunt attempts.
.
.
.
I would imagine that given today's climate and bunt strikeouts, if we eliminated bunt strikeouts from the second set, it would be closer to 70% success rate today on bunts that are actually put into play, but that is just a very rough guestimate. I think we are safe staying anywhere between 70-75% on bunt success as a target. (But my hypothesis is that i will see closer to 80-90% in the game).

Bunting just ain't what she used to be.

Gotcha. I don't disagree it will be 80-90% because of the, basically, house rule the CPU has programmed. Though, currently, I'm at 75%, even counting just the result of the PA (if I count every square around that I didn't pull back, I'm at 60%)

Perhaps I should then do more like what an official scorer would do - if it looks like the fielder could have thrown to second but instead threw to first, call it a "FC" for my tracking and a failed sacrifice (but the fielder chose not to get the lead runner).

BTW, I had a really funny bunt attempt with a guy who has a trash bunt rating. He bunted it and it went past the first baseman at his usual depth. The first baseman actually went back to the bag and the second baseman fielded it (the ball stopped near the lip of the grass) and threw to first to get the out. I thought that was pretty interesting.

-----------------

So as we already know, bunting is not the only thing that has become a lost art.. maybe they should move all the fences back and extend the Green Monster to 60 feet, to make real hitting chic again!

So, basically, make every park like Griffith Stadium?

Works for me.

[bigwill33]

Re: Why is every bunt a rocket this year?

I'm not exactly sure what some of you guys are trying to figure out with working in the lab of trying different things to change the bunting results of this game.

The devs have specifically come right out and have said that this is their intention on having it work that way. It is not a bug, and it is by design that rocket bunts are in the game. It was to counteract all the cheese in online play and as a result the offline gamers now must suffer.

Our best resolution, in moving forward, would be to voice our displeasure with this designed function and for the developers to hear our voices and consider changing it for at least offline play for the future.

So, I would suggest that instead of taking the time to go into practice or trying to capture footage or log results of your bunting, to take to twitter, email, or these forums and get the attention of whatever developers help out with game play and bunting and let it be known that this is unacceptable. In the past, they have been pretty good at responding or listening, at least. That is where I would focus my attention and is one of the reasons I posted in this thread to begin with.