2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

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  • AC
    Win the East
    • Sep 2010
    • 14951

    #3556
    Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

    Mehmeh, too lazy to split this into multi quotes. Responses in bold here. Let me preface this by saying that I'm actually a bigger Cubs fan than most realize. They're my NL team so to speak.

    Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
    Cubs fan here, so take this with a grain of salt, but Starlin Castro is absolutely worth Oscar Taveras and then some. IMO, Castro might be the best SS in baseball 2-3 years from now. The guy's a hitting machine who will probably end up in the 20-25 HR range, while threatening .300+ every season. He can also steal 25 bases. So, we've got a 25/25 potential SS...and that's not worth a top prospect? Seems like you could have your pick of the litter for a guy like that.

    Castro also has a .329 wOBA over his career. The dude doesn't get on base. 5.1BB%. .129 ISO. But HITZ, amirite?

    Throw in his youth (22), his accomplishments (ROY votes, hits champ already), the positional adjustment, and the fact that the error numbers don't really tell the story of how much his defense is improving. Go ahead and try to find a player (not named Robin Yount) faster to 500 hits than Castro.

    Voting means nothing. Hit champ with a .344 BABIP? And his defense improved from "Arencibian" to "Cedenoian." Not exactly great.

    And if you don't believe me, look at the spreadsheet. Castro is mid A + high B + high B. Taveras is what an A? So, we're still looking for 2 B's to send to the Cubs...

    Tavares is a high A. He is not worth Tavares.

    Now where this trade breaks down is with realism. There isn't any realism. The Cubs and Cards aren't trading, even on a minor deal, and Castro would NEVER EVER EVER be sent to St. Louis.

    This is true.

    TOTALLY DIFFERENT SUBJECT..

    What's with the couple of guys who don't participate at all in this thread to help/contribute, but only come out of the woodwork to slam potential deals and tell people how unrealistic/stupid they are? I don't get that. There can be some of that, but if that's 100% of your contribution here, you're basically being a d!ck and needn't spend time here. And if you don't want to be a d!ck about it, try at least counter-proposing something so the person has something to work with or at least logically explaining your reasoning...not just prospect X would NOT be traded for player X...nuff said. This thread, in my opinion, is about feedback. Remember, not every poster has exhaustive knowledge of every player in the game. And I think the thread creator mentioned CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM. It's not to show off how smart or more into realism you think you are. /end rant

    Let's not go there because I don't want the banhammer dropped and technically telling someone their trade sucks is contributing. Not gonna go further than this but a bit more positivity couldn't hurt.
    Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
    I am assuming that realism is not important here?

    As for fairness, Arenado + Chacin + Story + Pomeranz

    You could also look into a Pujols/CarGo swap as the main component of such a deal.
    I don't think Arenado AND Pomeranz would be dealt for ANOTHER huge contract, but an aging 1B nonetheless.
    "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

    Comment

    • WaitTilNextYear
      Go Cubs Go
      • Mar 2013
      • 16830

      #3557
      Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

      Originally posted by ACMilan99
      Mehmeh, too lazy to split this into multi quotes. Responses in bold here. Let me preface this by saying that I'm actually a bigger Cubs fan than most realize. They're my NL team so to speak.
      It's gonna take more than a sub-par walk rate to dissuade me from thinking Castro is one of the best SS's in the game. I do realize he needs to walk more.

      Counterargument: He's also got a .333 career BABiP so not really seeing .344 as an outlier. Some guys consistently post high-looking BABiP. And even with the .100-.150 ISO, he's posted 3+ WAR years as a 20-22 y/o. Not too shabby. And for such a "lightweight," he had 55 XBH last year and 55 XBH the year before that. HR's have increased every single year.

      The comment about his defense couldn't be more wrong. He'll make some mindnumbingly bad plays on easy balls, but he and Barney are one of the better DP combos in baseball. In terms of range, there are few who can get to more. And, oh yeah, Castro led all of baseball in total chances for a SS last year, probably because he played in all 162. Kid's durable.

      In summation, respectfully agree to disagree. One can dream on Taveras, but he's no guarantee just yet.
      _______
      As for the Pujols deal, that is a lot, true, but Pujols in Colorado...dang, that would be awesome. The contract though...does that come into play if someone doesn't care about realism? Obviously any trade of Pujols eschews realism.
      Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

      Comment

      • AC
        Win the East
        • Sep 2010
        • 14951

        #3558
        Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

        Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
        It's gonna take more than a sub-par walk rate to dissuade me from thinking Castro is one of the best SS's in the game. I do realize he needs to walk more.

        Counterargument: He's also got a .333 career BABiP so not really seeing .344 as an outlier. Some guys consistently post high-looking BABiP. And even with the .100-.150 ISO, he's posted 3+ WAR years as a 20-22 y/o. Not too shabby. And for such a "lightweight," he had 55 XBH last year and 55 XBH the year before that. HR's have increased every single year.

        The comment about his defense couldn't be more wrong. He'll make some mindnumbingly bad plays on easy balls, but he and Barney are one of the better DP combos in baseball. In terms of range, there are few who can get to more. And, oh yeah, Castro led all of baseball in total chances for a SS last year, probably because he played in all 162. Kid's durable.

        In summation, respectfully agree to disagree. One can dream on Taveras, but he's no guarantee just yet.
        _______
        As for the Pujols deal, that is a lot, true, but Pujols in Colorado...dang, that would be awesome. The contract though...does that come into play if someone doesn't care about realism? Obviously any trade of Pujols eschews realism.
        BABIP takes years to stabilize and you think .344 is more likely than .315? Lol he's had two seasons and it's easy to see which one's the outlier.

        If an average (not replacement there's a difference) player generally compiles about 2 WAR in full playing time, which he does, then Castro's above league average. one of the best, though? No. The ISO point still stands for itself.

        Oh, wow, a 2 Fld rating, up from a *MINUS 7.5?* Yeah, I was completely wrong lol, that -10.9 UZR/150 he's putting up this year is a REAL beauty.

        Tavares > Castro, end of story.

        _____________

        I think Anderson + Chatwood for him is fine.
        "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

        Comment

        • WaitTilNextYear
          Go Cubs Go
          • Mar 2013
          • 16830

          #3559
          Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

          Anyone have an idea of David Phelps's value (SP, Yankees)? Didn't see him on the sheet...thanks.
          Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

          Comment

          • AC
            Win the East
            • Sep 2010
            • 14951

            #3560
            Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

            Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
            Anyone have an idea of David Phelps's value (SP, Yankees)? Didn't see him on the sheet...thanks.
            I take it I win the Castro debate?

            Phelps if performing average-ish should be about a mid/high C.
            "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

            Comment

            • WaitTilNextYear
              Go Cubs Go
              • Mar 2013
              • 16830

              #3561
              Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

              Originally posted by ACMilan99
              BABIP takes years to stabilize and you think .344 is more likely than .315? Lol he's had two seasons and it's easy to see which one's the outlier.

              If an average (not replacement there's a difference) player generally compiles about 2 WAR in full playing time, which he does, then Castro's above league average. one of the best, though? No. The ISO point still stands for itself.

              Oh, wow, a 2 Fld rating, up from a *MINUS 7.5?* Yeah, I was completely wrong lol, that -10.9 UZR/150 he's putting up this year is a REAL beauty.

              Tavares > Castro, end of story.

              _____________

              I think Anderson + Chatwood for him is fine.
              OK, last word (lol).

              I think you are looking at the BABiP wrong. He's posted 2 full seasons above .340 (.346 and .344). One season at .315. Take another look. It says the .315 is the outlier.

              You are also undervaluing Castro's age. Kid went straight from AA to the pros (with much more success than Profar last year, ahem) at age 20. He's posting above average/solid WARs in his young 20s. Imagine at age 27? WAR likely to be >5. If Castro's not one of the best SS's in baseball, who do you like more? Rollins? Desmond? Furcal? Segura? Han-Ram? Tulo? Hardy? Jeter? Drew? Escobar? Reyes? Ramirez? Cabrera? Aybar? Lowrie? A thin group, huh? I only see 1 who is definitely better (Tulo) and one who is probably better (Han-Ram) and maybe Desmond/Hardy who are level with Starlin right now. So, top 5? Certainly qualifies him as 1 of the best (and also the youngest in that group).

              Your UZR numbers illustrate more of how bad fielding stats are rather than how bad his defense is. Anything that shows Castro with bad range is a throw-away stat. Just put it right in the trash, lol. If you have been watching any Cubs games, you know what I mean. Now, saying he's unfocused or inaccurate with his throwing, that I can buy.

              ________________________________

              Anderson/Chatwood is a ginormous underpay for Pujols. Even at "33" and in "decline" the guy posts a near-.900 OPS. In Coors, he'd be over 1.000 again. I think he's got 3-4 more near-All-Star years left in him. I think that's worth more than 2 middling P prospects in a poor pitching farm system. I'd think one of Story/Arenado/Pomeranz would be a must.
              Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

              Comment

              • WaitTilNextYear
                Go Cubs Go
                • Mar 2013
                • 16830

                #3562
                Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                Originally posted by ACMilan99
                I take it I win the Castro debate?

                Phelps if performing average-ish should be about a mid/high C.
                LOL, Never!!! We'll have to agree to disagree. I just went with the shorter post 1st. Chalk it up as a "win" if you think so. I'll be doing the same, lol.
                Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                Comment

                • AC
                  Win the East
                  • Sep 2010
                  • 14951

                  #3563
                  Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                  Milky > Castro.

                  Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                  OK, last word (lol).

                  I think you are looking at the BABiP wrong. He's posted 2 full seasons above .340 (.346 and .344). One season at .315. Take another look. It says the .315 is the outlier.

                  Crap, I got it mixed up with his AA stats, because your damn AA team is named "Cubs," too. Kind of amazing that a guy with just plus speed and a 20% LD rate has had .340+ BABIP twice in his career that totally won't regress to the mean as he ages, because foot and bat speed totally don't peak early, right?

                  ... Right?

                  By the way, BABIP. Not BABiP lol. Cards fans do the same kind of thing.


                  You are also undervaluing Castro's age. Kid went straight from AA to the pros (with much more success than Profar last year, ahem) at age 20. He's posting above average/solid WARs in his young 20s. Imagine at age 27? WAR likely to be >5. If Castro's not one of the best SS's in baseball, who do you like more? Rollins? Desmond? Furcal? Segura? Han-Ram? Tulo? Hardy? Jeter? Drew? Escobar? Reyes? Ramirez? Cabrera? Aybar? Lowrie? A thin group, huh? I only see 1 who is definitely better (Tulo) and one who is probably better (Han-Ram) and maybe Desmond/Hardy who are level with Starlin right now. So, top 5? Certainly qualifies him as 1 of the best (and also the youngest in that group).

                  His age should be a reflection of his controlability but he's already expensive, so yeah, I'm undervaluing it. And LOL at 'likely' to be >5. With his defense and BABIP possibly regressing as illustrated above, why do I doubt that? Also, in order, yes, yes, no, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, no, no, yes, no, yes, yes, no-ish. Sorry if I put an extra "yes" or "no" in there lol. Tulo/Hardy/Reyes/Cabrera/Jeter is my easy top 5, and Castro's not in it. Top 10 easily though but he's not worth Tavares.

                  Your UZR numbers illustrate more of how bad fielding stats are rather than how bad his defense is. Anything that shows Castro with bad range is a throw-away stat. Just put it right in the trash, lol. If you have been watching any Cubs games, you know what I mean. Now, saying he's unfocused or inaccurate with his throwing, that I can buy.

                  Aaaaaaaaaand the eye test theory. Kinda figured this was coming. Ugh, I'm just not gonna respond to this. I mean, they're not perfect but... come on.

                  ________________________________

                  Anderson/Chatwood is a ginormous underpay for Pujols. Even at "33" and in "decline" the guy posts a near-.900 OPS. In Coors, he'd be over 1.000 again. I think he's got 3-4 more near-All-Star years left in him. I think that's worth more than 2 middling P prospects in a poor pitching farm system. I'd think one of Story/Arenado/Pomeranz would be a must.

                  Meh, disagree, but for all intents and purposes, Story straight up?
                  __________________________

                  Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                  LOL, Never!!! We'll have to agree to disagree. I just went with the shorter post 1st. Chalk it up as a "win" if you think so. I'll be doing the same, lol.
                  You do that.

                  Edit #249252: If you want to take this to PM so as to not clog the thread I'd be glad to.
                  Last edited by AC; 05-01-2013, 07:48 PM.
                  "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

                  Comment

                  • WaitTilNextYear
                    Go Cubs Go
                    • Mar 2013
                    • 16830

                    #3564
                    Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                    Originally posted by ACMilan99
                    Edit #249252: If you want to take this to PM so as to not clog the thread I'd be glad to.
                    No, it's ok. Just not seeing eye to eye on this...

                    Segura > Castro....LOL. Not really any way to reason with something like that.
                    Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                    Comment

                    • AC
                      Win the East
                      • Sep 2010
                      • 14951

                      #3565
                      Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                      Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                      No, it's ok. Just not seeing eye to eye on this...

                      Segura > Castro....LOL. Not really any way to reason with something like that.
                      That wasn't a talent thing, that was a cost-effectiveness thing. Castro's just expensive and I really like Segura's glove.

                      In case you can't tell guys who can't take a walk with long big contracts really scare me lol.
                      "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

                      Comment

                      • glunsford
                        Rookie
                        • Jun 2012
                        • 170

                        #3566
                        Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                        what wuld it take to aquire steve cishek from the marlins. He is 17/21 in saves and has a 4.43 ERA.i am the braves. would C De la rosa (low B) and RP juan jaime (mid C) work

                        Comment

                        • WaitTilNextYear
                          Go Cubs Go
                          • Mar 2013
                          • 16830

                          #3567
                          Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                          Back to trades!

                          Jason Castro + Ronny Cedeno + Phil Humber/Carlos Pena for David Phelps ??

                          Jeter's sucking in-game (.244/.294/.334), Cervelli/Stewart are also sucking. A-Rod/Tex/Youk are all underwhelming at .240-.260 with lackluster power numbers. Phelps is in AAA w/ 3-1 2.85 ERA 1.12 WHIP. Yankees are in 1st place.

                          Castro's been awful, but I think he'd be an upgrade over what NYY has (ratings-wise at least). Also, Cedeno could spell Jeter, and Humber has been pitching very well lately (8-4 4.56 ERA 1.13 WHIP, .228 BAA, 108 K/26 BB).
                          Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                          Comment

                          • AC
                            Win the East
                            • Sep 2010
                            • 14951

                            #3568
                            Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                            Originally posted by glunsford
                            what wuld it take to aquire steve cishek from the marlins. He is 17/21 in saves and has a 4.43 ERA.i am the braves. would C De la rosa (low B) and RP juan jaime (mid C) work
                            I think that's a bit of an overpay, to be honest.
                            "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

                            Comment

                            • glunsford
                              Rookie
                              • Jun 2012
                              • 170

                              #3569
                              Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                              how about de la rosa and RP andrew russell (low C) for cishek

                              Comment

                              • cardinal511
                                Rookie
                                • Apr 2012
                                • 205

                                #3570
                                Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

                                Just to add another perspective to the Castro vs. Taveras debate, as a Cards fan I wouldn't like a trade one v. one, not to mention adding more pieces the other way. If it helps I don't like a Taveras for Profar deal either, but I'm really high on Taveras overall. I think one problem not mentioned here is what the Cards would do in the outfield with the vacancy that Taveras would leave. Beltran is probably gone at the end of the year, which leaves a hole in right, and plugging in Allen Craig out there makes us have a very slow outfield with Holiday in left. I would much rather trade for a guy like Tulo in a trade we discussed earlier that didn't require giving up Taveras. I also don't think shortstop is that big of a problem, since our offense is generally pretty good anyway (minus the last few days).

                                Something else not mentioned is the way that we like to keep our own players and develop them into stars. Taveras is supposed to be the next great home grown star, and it'd take a lot to get him away from St. Louis. For bias purposes I actually like the Cubs more than a team like the Reds who are more of a rival currently based on competition. I do like what you guys are doing by building your farm system now instead of trying to buy championships with insane contracts.

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