Re: Blzer's All-Star Sliders and Settings
Of course, man--anything I can do to help.
Strikeouts are definitely the big hurdle this year, and it's only right that after last year's hit-fest they took the complaints seriously and re-tuned things.
If folks are interested, I can compile a bigger list of examples, but here's some general stuff I've noticed.
Say you've got a slugger up and first open--you have to know that this year you're going to get pitched out of the zone. The first pitch might land for a strike, but chances are very likely that 2-4 will be out of the zone. So you sit and take those.
With sluggers, I've also noticed that many pitchers will pitch them backwards, meaning you might not see a fastball for 2-3 pitches, and certainly not one in the zone. So you look offspeed, and if that change hangs, you hammer it. If it comes out low, you take it, likely for a ball.
If you've got a man on first, expect the ball down and often times out of the zone. The CPU wants a DP, so take if you can until you get a ball up.
The CPU will move it in and out, up and down, and use its pitches to set you up. For example, if you take a FB inside for a ball, you might want to watch for a slider or a FB with movement to break just over the inner portion of the plate. If you see a FB on the edge, definitely look for a slider just out of the zone and take that pitch.
I'm not sure how helpful that is, as many of us already know this stuff, but I've found that you really have to have a plan with every at bat this year, and you have to take the specific context into account. So sometimes it just helps in a given at-bat to ask "how would I try to get me out here?" and act accordingly.
A lot of the tendencies stuff comes from seeing what a given pitcher has that day and how he adjusts from the 1st to the 2nd time through the order. The patterns differ from pitcher to pitcher and day to day, but I've definitely seen days when a pitcher's out pitch was the slider away, or the changeup low, days when a pitcher is pounding righties in on the hands, etc. It's not like it's every time, but if you can pick up on a tendency, you can often times eliminate one pitch and location in your head, and only swing if you get something different.
I also look at what they did to me in the 1st at bat, and use that to help. Lesser pitchers might repeat their strategy, but good ones won't. So if I got FBs on the inner half in inning one, I might look for the pitcher to work the outer half in the next AB.
It's not foolproof, and it's heavily context-dependent, but most generally you have to take limited cues and make educated guesses. Sometimes they pan out, sometimes they don't, and often times you're hoping that the pitcher you're facing makes a mistake. Not many hitters can hit pitchers' pitches, so most at-bats you might only see one good pitch to hit, and you have to hope you get it
.
One last thing about general patterns. I've noticed that the CPU is also very good at varying speeds. So if you see a FB in a given location, the CPU may come back there, but it almost certainly will not be the same pitch. It might go from 4-SM to 2 SM or even CHNG. That gets the CPU a lot of outs, as the little difference in timing often produces a foul and another strike.
What do you think is the most productive and beneficial way to expand this conversation? I think lots of people are looking for anything to help with hitting. Perhaps a book on pitchers? Some detailed observations on specific pitch sequences?
Edit: that post took so long to write that I forgot which thread I was in. To keep focus on Blzer's slider set, perhaps this post and/or discussion can be moved to another thread or to PM.
Blzer, are you noticing anything different with regard to pitching patterns between your sliders and default?
Of course, man--anything I can do to help.
Strikeouts are definitely the big hurdle this year, and it's only right that after last year's hit-fest they took the complaints seriously and re-tuned things.
If folks are interested, I can compile a bigger list of examples, but here's some general stuff I've noticed.
Say you've got a slugger up and first open--you have to know that this year you're going to get pitched out of the zone. The first pitch might land for a strike, but chances are very likely that 2-4 will be out of the zone. So you sit and take those.
With sluggers, I've also noticed that many pitchers will pitch them backwards, meaning you might not see a fastball for 2-3 pitches, and certainly not one in the zone. So you look offspeed, and if that change hangs, you hammer it. If it comes out low, you take it, likely for a ball.
If you've got a man on first, expect the ball down and often times out of the zone. The CPU wants a DP, so take if you can until you get a ball up.
The CPU will move it in and out, up and down, and use its pitches to set you up. For example, if you take a FB inside for a ball, you might want to watch for a slider or a FB with movement to break just over the inner portion of the plate. If you see a FB on the edge, definitely look for a slider just out of the zone and take that pitch.
I'm not sure how helpful that is, as many of us already know this stuff, but I've found that you really have to have a plan with every at bat this year, and you have to take the specific context into account. So sometimes it just helps in a given at-bat to ask "how would I try to get me out here?" and act accordingly.
A lot of the tendencies stuff comes from seeing what a given pitcher has that day and how he adjusts from the 1st to the 2nd time through the order. The patterns differ from pitcher to pitcher and day to day, but I've definitely seen days when a pitcher's out pitch was the slider away, or the changeup low, days when a pitcher is pounding righties in on the hands, etc. It's not like it's every time, but if you can pick up on a tendency, you can often times eliminate one pitch and location in your head, and only swing if you get something different.
I also look at what they did to me in the 1st at bat, and use that to help. Lesser pitchers might repeat their strategy, but good ones won't. So if I got FBs on the inner half in inning one, I might look for the pitcher to work the outer half in the next AB.
It's not foolproof, and it's heavily context-dependent, but most generally you have to take limited cues and make educated guesses. Sometimes they pan out, sometimes they don't, and often times you're hoping that the pitcher you're facing makes a mistake. Not many hitters can hit pitchers' pitches, so most at-bats you might only see one good pitch to hit, and you have to hope you get it
.One last thing about general patterns. I've noticed that the CPU is also very good at varying speeds. So if you see a FB in a given location, the CPU may come back there, but it almost certainly will not be the same pitch. It might go from 4-SM to 2 SM or even CHNG. That gets the CPU a lot of outs, as the little difference in timing often produces a foul and another strike.
What do you think is the most productive and beneficial way to expand this conversation? I think lots of people are looking for anything to help with hitting. Perhaps a book on pitchers? Some detailed observations on specific pitch sequences?
Edit: that post took so long to write that I forgot which thread I was in. To keep focus on Blzer's slider set, perhaps this post and/or discussion can be moved to another thread or to PM.
Blzer, are you noticing anything different with regard to pitching patterns between your sliders and default?
. Lemme tell you, man, that post was born of frustration, lol. I can't tell you how many times I'd ripped a potential homerun foul because the CPU set me up by changing speeds, or how many times I struck out with one of my key sluggers chasing a slider that was never going to be hittable on the heels of an outside fastball.
. All that stuff about having an approach at the plate takes on extra meaning!
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