Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

[CMH]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

We definitely have different opinions.

Hughes has the highest potential by far, IMO. He has a plus curveball with a sharp break and can get his fastball up to 94. Plus his slider and change are still coming along.

Kennedy has zero "plus" pitches, not sure how can have ace potential. He's lucky to hit 91 on the gun, I honestly don't know if he'll be more than a middle of the rotation guy. Many baseball people are comparing him to Mussina, who was a great 2nd tier pitcher, IMO and never an ace.

Kennedy has a plus changeup and above average curveball that also doubles as his third strike out pitch.

He's also been scouted as having great location which he continued to display in both the minors and majors after being drafted from college.

Yes, his fastball is low. He's not going to blow one by you like Hughes. But I like Kennedy better because it seems to me that he knows how to use his pitches to get hitters out.

Seems to me that Hughes is still learning to adjust to not being able to consistently blow a fastball by major league hitters and that worries me a bit. That's why I don't see him ever being a high 3 ERA guy. I see him being a 4+ ERA pitcher. And not that I'm trying to put a lot of stock in ERA (because trust me I know it's not the best measure of a pitchers success) but it does mean something.

Of course, I'm not saying that Hughes will be a disappointment. I just think he won't be as great as people think he will be. If he can continue to learn then I imagine he'll reach his potential. But with Kennedy, we see a guy that has already displayed an ability to learn. There's no mistake he shot up through the minor league system and saw no ill effects of being in the majors just months after being drafted.

[DrJones]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

That is pretty much the definition of an ace... A player who transcends. A DOMINATING starting pitcher. Mussina was a #1, he was, but he was NOT an ACE. An ACE is the guy you want to take the ball in that pivotal game, that guy who can go out there and DOMINATE the other team.

Most ACES end up as HoF players. You have your 1s, 2s, 3s, and back-end starters. Then at the top of all of that, you have your ACES. There are VERY few Aces in the game.

Based on your criteria, yes, I agree. But when scouts talk about Hughes having "ace" potential, I think they're being a bit more generous. The odds of Hughes having a career approaching that of Clemens, Johnson, or Martinez (or even Santana) are pretty slim.

[wang_chi7]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Santana doesn't scare me all that much. Great pitcher, but he isn't suited to pitch well at Fenway. Left-handed fly-ballers who supply the power, that isn't suited for the Monstah.

Here's his stats at Fenway:
G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP
4 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 15.2 6.89 21 14 12 1 8 0 12 0

Thats not a lot of innings pitched to draw much of a conclusion, but so far not very good. At Yankee Stadium he's:

4 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 23 1.17 18 3 3 1 5 0 23 0

Lights out in the small amount of time pitched there. Still too little time to draw much of a conclusion though.

[eXperiment63]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Oh I know... But that is large enough to show a pattern to me of not wanting him to pitch half his games in Fenway. Fenway just isn't conducive to his skillset. Yankee Stadium is very good for his skillset, the lefties have the short porch there. That would be why he has been so dominant there.

I just think all things equal, I would rather have Buchholz and Ellsbury, than have Santana. Unlike the Yankees, we already have a pitcher who you can legitimately call an Ace. The Yanks need that shut down pitcher more than we do.

I also honestly think Hughes would end up giving us more problems than Santana. Is that saying Hughes will be better? No, not at all.

I'll just be glad if it costs the Yankees Hughes and Cano. That would be very good, IMO, for the Sox.

[Mr.Burns]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

I'll just be glad if it costs the Yankees Hughes and Cano. That would be very good, IMO, for the Sox.

Quick! His reverse psychology is working! j/k

[rsox]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Mussina was the ace of the Orioles for basically the entire decade of the 90's, the biggest knock against him was that he could never clear that 20 win hurdle.

You kind of have to wonder if Santana, who will get an absurdly huge contract, will back fire on the Yankees like Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright did.

[Misfit]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Johnson was old and switching leagues, Pavano and Wright have never and will never belong in a discussion involving Johan Santana.

The Yankees would be stupid to covet the likes of Hughes and Kennedy over Santana. I can see the argument in keeping Chamberlain and Cano, but those two guys should be available (one, not both, of course). Neither guy will be as good as Santana is, which isn't a stretch considering just how good Santana has been and will continue to be. If all it takes to get him is Hughes/Kennedy, Cabrera and a B prospect then the deal should be done right now. With Santana the Yankees have the ace they've been missing and are the instant frontrunners for the penant next year.

Likewise, the Red Sox would be foolish to overvalue its prospects as well. They should do their best to keep Ellsbury out of the discussions because he has proven something already and looks to be a dynamic player. One of the duo of Buchholz and Lester would have to included (which would be tough considering both have strong sentimental value to the club, but hey, it's a business) and Crisp as well plus another above-average prospect (Lowrie, Masterson, Moss?). It's a package that is pretty even with whatever the Yankees are offerring and the duo of Beckett and Santana could raise Hell for other teams for a long time.

All of this, of course, is assuming either team can sign the guy. I'd think 7 years at 140 million would be the starting point and something large market teams would be comfortable with. Santana is a guy who could still be effective in the 6th and 7th years of such a contract given how good his change is. Aces are hard to come by, and prospects have become overvalued, if a team can land a guy of Santana's caliber for some players who have mostly proven nothing at the big league level then that team should definitely pull the trigger.

[GBrushTWood]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

I agree with Misfit. I can't even believe some people would rather have complete unknowns over Johan F'n Santana. If any of the young starting pitchers being discussed in this thread are even 85% as good as Johan Santana has been in his career, they should be considered brilliant success stories.

This is like the Kevin Garnett trade discussions over the summer. Everybody kept whining about how good Al Jefferson would be in 3 years, and how Garnett would then suck. That may happen, but look at the present: nobody is complaining about having Kevin Garnett. He is worth every player the Celtics gave up.

The same can be said for Santana, because he is so damn good. I bet 2007 was an aberration year for him. Guys with his caliber of pitches don't just fall off the table. He'll be filthy next year.

[NYJets]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Santana will not be a Yankee, trust me on this one. They are not front runners at all either, I hjeard this on the FAN today, there just one team to come out in public to say that they contacting the Twins...Thats all at this point.

If the Yankees really want Santana, they have as good of a chance to get him as anybody. They have more money than anyone to pay him, and they have the prospects to get a deal done.

[snepp]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

They have tried and Santana rejected their recent $93 million/5 year extension.

It was actually an $80 million/4 year extension, the 5th year was simply a replacement for this upcoming season.

[NYJets]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Kennedy has a plus changeup and above average curveball that also doubles as his third strike out pitch.

He's also been scouted as having great location which he continued to display in both the minors and majors after being drafted from college.

Yes, his fastball is low. He's not going to blow one by you like Hughes. But I like Kennedy better because it seems to me that he knows how to use his pitches to get hitters out.

Seems to me that Hughes is still learning to adjust to not being able to consistently blow a fastball by major league hitters and that worries me a bit. That's why I don't see him ever being a high 3 ERA guy. I see him being a 4+ ERA pitcher. And not that I'm trying to put a lot of stock in ERA (because trust me I know it's not the best measure of a pitchers success) but it does mean something.

Of course, I'm not saying that Hughes will be a disappointment. I just think he won't be as great as people think he will be. If he can continue to learn then I imagine he'll reach his potential. But with Kennedy, we see a guy that has already displayed an ability to learn. There's no mistake he shot up through the minor league system and saw no ill effects of being in the majors just months after being drafted.

Hughes has shown throughout his career that he has a better fastball, a better curveball, and better control. They are both known for having great command. Only advantage Kennedy really has is his changeup is better right now, but Hughes is getting there. He's also probably a smarter pitcher right now, but he is also older and pitched in college so he should be more advanced. Hughes is known for being very intelligent, and he didn't just dominate the minors with his fastball. He throws hard, at his best he sits 93-94 and touches 96, but not like Joba hard. He's been so dominant because of his command, and a great curveball.

I just don't consider Kennedy in the same class as Hughes. Hughes I can see being an ace, or a #1 on most teams. And I think he has a great chance of living up to his potential. Joba probably has the highest ceiling of the 3, but I see more questions with him. Weight issues, and his changeup isn't very good yet, he needs a 3rd pitch. I think if Kennedy goes to the NL at some point he could be a solid #2. But in the AL I think he'll spend his career as a #3 or #4. And that's fine, if he's durable a pitcher like that is really valuable to have, but I don't think he's in the class of Joba or Hughes.

[snepp]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

The same can be said for Santana, because he is so damn good. I bet 2007 was an aberration year for him. Guys with his caliber of pitches don't just fall off the table. He'll be filthy next year.

I would take an aberration like 2007 every single year from my #1 starter.

[snepp]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

Kennedy will probably end up being a respectable starter, but he isn't anything special, and most definitely not the headliner of a trade package.

[eXperiment63]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

To anyone who thinks I would rather have Buchholz instead of Santana.. Based on pure baseball skill alone, you're insane.

To have Buchholz + Ellsbury = <$1M/yr
To have Santana = ~$22-25M/yr + Buchholz + Ellsbury + Other Prospects

At that point, he is wayyyyyyy over-valued.

Buchholz has one of the nastiest curves I've seen in a long time, and a devastating changeup. If he can get his fastball location under better wraps, he could potentially put up Santana-like numbers. He threw a No-No in his second career start, and it didn't look like an aberration, he continued to light it up.

Ellsbury is the EXACT player we need at the top of our lineup. Fast as all hell, hits for average, hits the ball hard(though not for HR power), gets on-base at a good clip, steals bases like it's nothing, and plays great defensive CF.

At the cost of Santana, I would rather have Buchholz and Ellsbury.

The Sox already have the highest ticket prices in the MLB, by a longshot. If you want them to keep bringing in more ridiculous contracts, that makes their ticket prices go up even more. A family of 4 from the working class can barely afford to go to a game or two a year now as it is. Should the Sox only be a commodity for those who make a lot of money? No, they shouldn't.

Our payroll last year was $147M, that was wayyyyy too much. The small capacity of Fenway makes it impossible to be able to turn a good profit at that expense for the team. Nevermind making it $175M/yr...

[CMH]

Re: Don't be surprised if Johan Santana is a Yankee before the season gets underway.

I bet 2007 was an aberration year for him. Guys with his caliber of pitches don't just fall off the table. He'll be filthy next year.

That was a great aberration year. His win-loss was the only blemish and that's because the Twins just didn't play well last season.